Monday Musings

This is always the most challenging week of the year for The Stride Report when it comes to content. The indoor track season is just beginning, but there aren't enough notable results to truly put together new and exciting content that we haven't already discussed (at least not yet).

Of course, that won't stop us from publishing quality articles anyways.

A few of my favorite posts on our site are when I essentially go rouge on a certain topic and basically freestyle the article, just spitballing thoughts that come through my mind.

So let's do that! Except this time, there's a twist.

Today, I'll be talking about Division Two. Let's get started...

* * *

As always, I think our D2 team did a phenomenal job with our preseason indoor rankings. There is always a ton of thought that goes into those lists and it's incredibly challenging to gauge where certain names should be listed, especially with D2 being home to what seems like numerous star-level talents.

With that being said, I think there is a strong case for one Ashland star to be ranked.

Personally, I am a huge fan of Ian Johnson. I think he's super underrated, has great flexibility between the 800 meters and the mile, owns nationally competitive marks and has proven that he can succeed on the national stage.

With personal bests of 1:49 (800) and 4:05 (mile), the All-American ace has a legitimate argument to be listed in our Top 25 rankings.

However, I also understand why our D2 team opted not to rank him. When you look at a few of the names ahead of Johnson on this list, they have nationally competitive times that are debatably better than Johnson's marks or they have national meet finishes that suggest greater promise for this season.

It also didn't help that Johnson dropped to 11th place in the 800 meters at the outdoor national meet last spring, failing to advance out of the prelims.

Even so, I would have very much liked to see Johnson in those rankings and I think the argument for him is better than any argument against him.

However, as much as I like Johnson, he's not the biggest name who was left out of our rankings. Instead, we need to look at our Canadian friends up north for our biggest rankings omission -- and this one falls on me.

Allow me to explain.

Simon Fraser veterans Aaron Ahl and Charlie Dannatt were only able to compete in a handful of home meets for Simon Fraser last spring. Canada, which is where Simon Fraser University is located, made travel outside of the country a challenge during the pandemic and therefore forced this D2 program to stay at home for the spring season.

This included postseason meets, specifically the NCAA Outdoor Championships. So, despite Ahl and Dannatt each running 3:42 for 1500 meters, neither man was able to contest that distance at the NCAA Championships.

In fact, those 3:42 marks didn't even show up on the TFRRS national leaderboard, likely because it was known that Simon Fraser wouldn't be able to compete on the national stage.

But wait, there's more!

Both Ahl and Dannatt went on to compete throughout the summer months and they each posted some incredible marks. Ahl ran 1:48 for 800 meters and 3:38 for 1500 meters. Meanwhile, Dannatt ran 3:39 for 1500 meters.

For perspective, those 1500 meter marks would have ranked Ahl and Dannatt at NCAA #2 and NCAA #3, respectively, during the 2021 outdoor track season. In the 800 meters, Ahl would have been ranked at NCAA #4.

The problem, however, is that those summer performance didn't show up on TFRRS. Both Ahl and Dannatt ran those marks without any (listed) association with Simon Fraser. So, in a summer that was headlined by the Olympics, both Ahl's and Dannatt's performances were overlooked.

Simply put, there were a lot of reasons for us to not be aware of their new and improved resumes.

Not only that, but we (and by "we" I mean "me") had reason to believe that Ahl had graduated from Simon Fraser. That, of course, wasn't the case, but that didn't stop me from telling my team that he shouldn't be in our rankings.

Whoops.

Whenever we release our next update, both Ahl and Dannatt will almost certainly be listed in our Top 25. Based on their 1500 meter times, both men are in positions to not only earn All-American honors, but both men could contend for NCAA titles.

The catch? These two men will likely have to go through each other in order to reach gold.

* * *

As far as our research goes for the D2 women, our writers hit every major name who deserved a ranking. Personally, I would argue that Fatima Alanis from Queens University in North Carolina, who is currently listed at TSR #25 in our preseason indoor rankings, should be ranked higher.

With personal bests of 16:20 (5k) and 34:10 (10k), along with two bronze medals on the national stage -- one on the outdoor oval and one on the grass -- it feels abundantly clear that Alanis is amongst the elites of D2 in the distance events.

The problem, however, is that she has never raced collegiately on the indoor oval. No matter how you try to spin it, trying to counter that very valid point is hard to do. It's also a challenge to reconcile the fact that Alanis is better in the longer distances like the 6k during cross country or the 10k on the outdoor oval.

With the longest distance at the indoor national meet being 5000 meters, I can slowly understand why our D2 staff opted to put the Queens standout back at TSR #25.

Would I have ranked her higher? Yeah, probably, but I also can't argue with anything that our D2 crew did when attempting to find the proper place for her in our rankings.

* * *

There are so many different areas that we could talk about when it comes to women's D2 middle and long distance running in the NCAA.

However, I really like the women's 800 meters this year. From top to bottom, I'm not sure there is a better event in the D2 ranks that has the potential to be as fast and as exciting as I think it can be.

Berenice Cleyet-Merle is, without question, the heavy favorite to win NCAA gold in this event if she opts to seriously pursue the 800 meters throughout the winter season. With a personal best of 2:03, which she ran last spring unattached, this Indianapolis star can defend her indoor title if she wants to...but what is her incentive to do so?

Cleyet-Merle just ran 4:40 in the mile during her season opener back in December. That time was also almost five full seconds faster than the best mile time in D2 last winter when Celine Ritter ran 4:44.95.

If the Greyhound ace was able to throw down that kind of mark in a "rust-buster" effort, then what can she do when she is fully peaking for the postseason?

We also can't ignore the fact that Cleyet-Merle ran 4:08 for 1500 meters last July. For perspective, that time was over EIGHT SECONDS faster than the fastest time run at the D2 level last spring.

Some would argue that Cleyet-Merle is an overwhelming favorite to win the women's D2 800 meter national title this year and that she shouldn't consider anything else other than that event.

But what does she have to gain by winning another 800 meter national title? She's already earned NCAA gold in that event and the mile, while potential more variable than the 800 meters, doesn't have a preseason field that could challenge Cleyet-Merle much more than the 800 preseason field potentially could / will.

Not only that, but Stephanie Cotter no longer sits in the D2 realm and Celine Ritter, for as good as she is, will likely contest the longer distances and/or the DMR instead of the mile.

Meanwhile, Yasmine Hernandez, who is the next-best threat to someone contending for a mile national title, is likely better suited for the 800 meters.

In fact, if anyone is going to legitimately challenge Cleyet-Merle in the 800 meters, then it is likely going to be Hernandez who poses the biggest threat to the U. Indy star at the half-mile distance.

We should also consider the fact that Cleyet-Merle will likely contest the DMR later this year in an effort to help her teammates qualify for the national meet. If they do qualify (and that doesn't seem unrealistic) then the best double for Cleyet-Merle at the national meet would be the mile and the DMR.

Attempting to run the 800 meters and the DMR at the national meet, while possible, isn't exactly easy, either. Three hours and 15 minutes of rest before the DMR versus two hours of rest before the DMR should tell you everything that you need to know when it comes to running the mile versus the 800 meters.

That's my rant about Cleyet-Merle's event selection, so let's move on before I spend more time on this than I should.

* * *

Sticking with the 800 meters, let's move to the men's side, although my topic of choice here is going to be a little bit different with the men than it was with the women.

Instead of one singular name, I want to talk about the future of this event and how incredibly bright it seems to be.

If you were to take a look at the national leaderboard in the 800 meters from last spring, you'd notice a handful of half-mile marks that were under the 1:50 barrier. In fact, if you count them all up, you get a grand total of 13 men who ran 1:49 or faster last spring (with conversions).

Of those 13 names, over half of them (seven) were considered to be underclassmen (freshmen or sophomores) by eligibility.

But what does that mean? How are those numbers relevant to the NCAA as we know it today?

Well, since TFRRS began collecting outdoor results for the D2 scene back in 2010, there hasn't been a single outdoor track season that has had more than 13 men run under the 1:50 barrier. The only other time we've seen 13 men run under that mark at the D2 level was in 2016.

However, the 2021 outdoor track season was when we saw the most underclassmen in Division Two ever run under the 1:50 barrier in a single season, coming in at seven names. Only 2017 has come close to reaching the same total with six underclassmen going under that same barrier.

In other words, the spring of 2021 was not only the deepest it has ever been from a firepower standpoint, but it was also the best spring season that the D2 realm has ever seen when it comes to the future of the men's 800 meters.

And so far, that "bright future" theory seems to be holding true.

Wes Ferguson has already run a converted 1:49 mark for 800 meters while other underclassmen like David Cardenas (Adams State), Warren Thiel (Charleston (WV)), Nikolaus Franzmair (CSU-Pueblo) and Stephen Barker (Northwood) have all run under 1:52 this season, all during the early portions of December.

And the craziest part? None of those five men who I mentioned above were in that sub-1:50 group from last spring!

Dennis Mbuta is likely going to be the national title favorite in the 800 meters come March, especially with Seb Anthony now at Virginia Tech. However, once Mbuta and a few other talented veterans leave the NCAA, these underclassmen will likely take this event by storm and potentially post some of the fastest and most electric D2 results that we have ever seen at this distance.

* * *

Alright, let's wrap up today's conversation with a team that I am sure many of you are probably tired of talking about. I am, of course, referring to the Grand Valley State women.

When teams dominate their respective sports, fans tend to develop a numbness to that team's ongoing collection of accolades. In fact, they will likely begin to develop a small level of animosity towards that team, simply because it can get old to see the same team(s) headlining a certain sport for years on end.

However, I always appreciated dynasties like the New England Patriots and the Golden State Warriors...well, at least when they weren't playing my teams. The same goes for the Northern Arizona men during cross country. Seeing their never-ending level of dominance was historic and I think it's important to appreciate the excellence that these teams have shown over such a long period of time.

That's why the Grand Valley State Lakers deserve some recognition. Their current roster is absolutely STACKED with elite-level stars who could end up dominating the NCAA this winter.

In fact, I opted to highlight the top names on this GVSU roster and offer my projections for each of these ladies.

Let's take a quick look, shall we?

Note: All listed eligibility takes redshirts and Covid-related extensions into consideration.

Hannah Becker (Junior)

Projection: National Title Winner

Potential: Multi-National Title Winner

Allie Ludge (Rs. Senior)

Projection: Top-Three Finisher & Multi-All-American

Potential: National Title Winner

Klaudia O'Malley (Sophomore)

Projection: Top-Three Finisher & Multi-All-American

Potential: National Title Contender

Taryn Chapko (Freshman)

Projection: Top-Three Finisher & Multi-All-American (via relay)

Potential: National Title Contender

Jessica Gockley (Rs. Senior)

Projection: Multi-All-American

Potential: Top-Three Finisher & Multi-All-American

Morgan Fuerst (Senior)

Projection: Multi-National Qualifier

Potential: All-American

Grace Pagone (Junior)

Projection: National Qualifier

Potential: All-American

Kayce Rypma (Sophomore)

Projection: National Qualifier

Potential: All-American

Natalie Graber (Sophomore)

Projection: National Qualifier

Potential: All-American

Lynsey Amthor (Sophomore)

Projection: National Qualifier

Potential: All-American

Lucy Karpukhno (Sophomore)

Projection: Top-20 Event Ranking

Potential: National Qualifier

That is an INSANE level of both firepower and depth for one team to have. Heck, that doesn't even include any of the women who could become All-Americans by virtue of being on a DMR.

Now, it's important that we don't look too heavily into these "projections". These quick notes are simply based on what these athletes have done in the past and what we think these women are capable of doing in the future if they continue to improve.

I am by no means putting a cap on the athletic ceiling that these women could reach.

Regardless, take a time to process the sheer amount of depth that this roster has. If you thought their efforts on the indoor oval from last year were impressive, then you might be in for a treat given their roster structure for this year.