Millrose Games Preview

Additional analysis by Garrett Zatlin

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One of the United States’ premier indoor track and field meets annually brings together professionals, NCAA stars and even a few select high school standouts, for a handful of the best races that we'll see all winter long.

This year’s edition of the Millrose Games will be particularly interesting with a number of athletes who have recently joined the pro ranks within the last year set to toe the line against former NCAA rivals.

With the level of talent in these fields, we could see new NCAA-leading marks in all three of these distance events by the end of the weekend.

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Men’s 3000 Meter Field Pits Collegiate Stars Against Newfound Pros in Potential NCAA Record Attempt

The men’s 3000 meters at the Millrose Games provides us the deepest mix of collegiate athletes and elite professional runners, leading us to believe that this will be the top distance race of the meet.

With that in mind, it makes sense that this race was reportedly being set up for a collegiate record attempt given the mix of talent of in this field. Breaking Alistair Craig’s 7:38.59 mark from 2004 has long been in conversation over the past few years.

However, the removal of Notre Dame’s Yared Nuguse and Northern Arizona's Nico Young from this field makes it less likely that a collegian will dip under that time. Nuguse had the superstar credentials and experience to handle the elite competition in this field while Young was perfectly suited to prosper in a fast, all-out setting like he has many times before.

With those two men out of the meet, the idea of a sub-7:40 result, while still possible, becomes a bit more challenging to fathom.

Even so, the quality of this field makes it tough to rule out the possibility entirely.

In fact, Wesley Kiptoo is someone who, on paper, has all of the necessary aerobic tools to capture a monumental performance. The Iowa State star lowered his 5000 meter personal best to a mark of 13:14 back in December, a time that is considered to be about as impressive as a time of 7:39 (or better) according to the IAAF scoring tables.

Kiptoo's current 3000 meter personal best is a very strong mark of 7:48, and while he should chop several seconds off of that time, it’s still questionable whether the indoor 5k national champion has the ability to run much faster than the low 7:40's given his unspectacular (but not terrible) foot speed.

Still, in a year where only nine NCAA men have dipped under 8:00 thus far, and the fastest non-converted time being 7:49, any improvement on Kiptoo’s already-fast personal best should be an accomplishment, especially if he runs 7:45 or faster.

And frankly, the one person in this race who is best suited for an all-out, aggressively paced attack on the 3k national record would be Kiptoo. He is someone who is unafraid to put himself in ultra-fast settings, something that he has proven to us on numerous occasions.

Between his willingness to keep things fast and the elite-level competition that will push him, it's not completely unrealistic to say that Kiptoo could be the new collegiate record holder by Saturday. That, of course, is easier said than done.

We then come to Stanford standout Charles Hicks who is due for a big drop on his 8:02 personal best which he ran in a dual meet. The distance-oriented superstar placed 4th at the NCAA XC Championships in November and ran 13:33 for the 5000 meters last spring.

Admittedly, Hicks hasn't necessarily shown a ton of 800 meter or mile speed throughout his career, leaving us to wonder if his current turnover will be enough to keep up with a race that is a little under two miles. In theory, this event is short enough that Hicks could be considered to be dropping down in distance this weekend.

Even so, Hicks has unreal fitness and has shown over the last few seasons that he can keep pace with even the most talented distance runners that the NCAA has to offer. A result somewhere in the low-7:50s seems reasonable, but anything under that barrier isn't totally out of the realm of possibility either.

Similarly, Michigan State veteran Morgan Beadlescomb has run only 8:01 at the distance, but his 13:21 personal best for 5000 meters, which came last spring, indicates that he’s ready to at least run in the mid-to-low 7:50s.

Unlike Hicks, this experienced Spartan star does have some sneaky-good speed for someone who is predominately a 5k and cross country specialist. Beadlescomb has run 1:48 for 800 meters, 3:41 for 1500 meters and recently posted a mile time of 4:01 to edge out 3:59 miler Ben Veatch for the win.

There aren't many long-distance talents in the NCAA who boast as much speed as Beadlescomb does. If he's able to follow the pace and stick with the chase pack, then his middle distance speed could come into play and lead him to a better-than-expected finish.

A sub-7:55 result seems like a given, but the bigger question is whether or not he'll break the 7:50 barrier. In theory, the 3000 meters has the potential to be his event, but we haven't seen Beadlescomb in a setting where we see if that's true or not.

Luckily for us, we'll get to see if our suspicions hold any merit come Saturday.

As for the outright winner, that person will most likely come from the professional ranks.

Recent professional athletes from the college ranks in this race include former teammates Luis Grijalva, now racing for Hoka One One, and Geordie Beamish of On Athletics Club (Northern Arizona), Cooper Teare and Cole Hocker, both of Nike (Oregon) and Conner Mantz, also of Nike (BYU).

Grijalva and Hocker ran in the NCAA as recently as last spring while both Mantz and Teare competed at the NCAA XC Championships in late November.

20-year-old Cole Hocker won the NCAA title at this distance last winter before reaching the Olympics in the summer, dropping a nearly unbelievable time of 3:31 for 1500 meters and subsequently turning pro. He should shatter his 7:46 mark and perhaps set a pace below 7:40.

Joining him should be Drew Hunter, who has run 7:39 for 3000 meters on the outdoor oval, as well as former Oregon teammate Teare. Other key names to watch will be Grijalva, Beamish and Mantz, all of whom are more capable of securing the win this weekend.

PREDICTIONS (COLLEGIATES ONLY):

1. Wesley Kiptoo (Iowa State) -- 7:45

2. Morgan Beadlescomb (Michigan State) -- 7:49

3. Charles Hicks (Stanford) -- 7:50

Wayment Hunts For NCAA-leading 3k Time as Only Female Collegiate Distance Runner at the Millrose Games

This meet leans heavy on the male entries in terms of NCAA athletes represented in the distance events.

Where the men’s fields have a handful of top NCAA talents, the women’s fields are comprised of almost entirely professional runners. The exception to that is BYU superstar Courtney Wayment who is entered in the women’s 3000 meters.

On paper, the BYU veteran fits right into this field with the seventh-fastest PR of the 12 women who are racing. Wayment’s 3k personal best of 8:54 led the NCAA last year before she went on to earn gold at the indoor national meet in that same distance (and in the DMR).

This year, Wayment has yet to contest the 3000 meters, but holds the NCAA-leading time in the 5000 meters with a monster mark of 15:15 which she ran at Boston University.

Given that she's a steeplechaser during outdoors, with range from the 800 meters to the 6k during cross country, it would appear that the 3000 meters is, in theory, Wayment’s natural distance event.

With an elite mile PR of 4:30 adding some legitimate, high-level middle distance speed to a 5k personal best that is essentially untouched in the collegiate ranks, one would think that the 3000 meters is the perfect medium for Wayment -- and some may say that she's already proven that!

Not only that, but Wayment is someone who has prospered in fields where she's racing elite distance talents from all levels. Whether that be in Boston University back in December, the UW Invite last winter or the American Track League last spring, the fastest performances in Wayment's career have all come when she's racing top-tier competition, some of which were professional runners.

Based on the indicated jump in fitness from her recent 5k time, it would appear that Wayment is set for yet another another massive result in the 3000 meters this weekend. The fastest time in this Millrose 3k field is 8:45 which belongs to former Wisconsin star Alicia Monson (which she ran at this very meet in 2019).

Monson did not run nearly as fast as Wayment has, collegiately, in either the mile or the 5000 meters, so it’s possible that Wayment could blow her previous PR out of the water as she dukes it out with the top names in this field.

However, what is more likely to happen is Wayment lowering her personal best by a small margin into the low 8:50's and beating West Virginia’s Ceili McCabe’s current NCAA-leading time of 8:52. That, at the very least, seems like the safest bet.

It will likely take a major performance and a time in the 8:40s in order for Wayment to win this race. That will certainly be a challenge, but a sub-8:50 mark isn't out of the question. Plus, as we just learned, Wayment does very well in these kind of settings.

As for the rest of this field, recent graduates litter this race including BYU track and field alum Whittni Orton who is now with Adidas. Other names include Elly Henes of Adidas (NC State alum), Monson of On Athletics Club (Wisconsin alum), Dani Jones of New Balance (Colorado alum) and Weini Kelati of Under Armour (New Mexico alum).

PREDICTIONS (COLLEGIATES ONLY):

1. Courtney Wayment (BYU) -- 8:51

Garcia Romo Attempts to Establish Himself As Superstar Miler in Men’s Wanamaker Mile

The event that is always touted as the “centerpiece” of the Millrose Games is the men’s Wanamaker Mile. This year, however, the marquee event features just one NCAA runner, Mario Garcia Romo of Ole Miss.

The Mississippi superstar is racing against some of the titans of the distance running world, including several past NCAA champions such as Clayton Murphy (Akron alum), Nick Willis (Michigan alum), Oliver Hoare (Wisconsin alum) and recent Olympic 1500 meter bronze medalist Josh Kerr (New Mexico alum).

All of those men, along with Nike’s Craig Engels (Ole Miss alum) and 18-year old Adidas star Hobbs Kessler, already have times (or are capable of running times) in the low-3:50s.

In the more-often run 1500 meters, Garcia Romo has the slowest personal best in the field with a time of 3:37, a bizarre fact when you consider how fast a 3:37 mark is for that distance.

Even so, it's very possible that Garcia Romo could take down a few names in this field, but it’s unlikely that he’s in the hunt for the win. With guys like Kerr and Hoare likely to finish near the 3:50 mark, it’s conceivable that Garcia Romo could be pulled to something considerably faster than his 3:56 PR while still finishing in the back-half of the field.

Anything faster than the NCAA-leading mark of 3:54 would likely be considered a surprise.

With that being said, this NCAA superstar has the all of the tools in his racing arsenal to be massively successful this weekend. He has underrated middle distance prowess thanks to his 3:37 PR for 1500 meters and his 1:47 mark for 800 meters, so we know that he has the proper turnover to thrive in this race.

When pairing that middle distance speed with his 3000 meter personal best of 7:48 from last winter, then it feels like the mile is going to be Garcia Romo's marquee event this winter. That kind of lethal range gives him a resume that should not only allow him to be competitive in this field, but it should also allow him to be majorly successful regardless of how the race plays out.

Mario Garcia Romo was the lone collegian to be accepted into this mile field. If he proves that he's able to truly contend with the professionals, then he’ll likely come away with a performance that solidifies his status as one of the best distance overall runners in the NCAA and a national title contender.

PREDICTIONS (COLLEGIATES ONLY):

1. Mario Garcia Romo (Ole Miss) -- 3:54

NCAA Dark Horses Collide in Men’s Mile

The Michael Blum Men’s Mile is effectively the "open mile" for this meet, but it’s still composed of mostly elite mile times. The field features 12 men, 10 of whom have broken 4:00 in the mile and six of whom are NCAA athletes.

Nearly all of those collegiate men are distance talents who are expected to qualify for the national meet and some could be considered as dark horse candidates for All-American spots come March.

Foremost amongst that group is Drake’s Adam Fogg.

The Bulldog star was an All-American in the indoor mile last year, showing off incredible tactics and positioning en route to a 3:57 mile PR along with that All-American honor.

However, Fogg actually ran a new PR of 3:56 last week en route to a win over a field with some top talents and professional runners, including 3:58 miler and teammate Isaac Basten as well as Iowa State's Wesley Kiptoo.

Between his exceptional race tactics, top-level times, extensive big-meet experience and recent upwards progression, it's going to be hard to bet against Fogg this weekend. On paper, he looks like he's made for the mile distance.

Northern Arizona’s George Kusche likely provides Fogg with his best top competition, at least from the college ranks. The distance running landscape should be anxious to see what the South African athlete can run in what’s considered to be his most natural distance event.

Kusche has tons of momentum right now. He finally earned All-American honors on the cross country course this past fall and later stunned many with his outstanding 5000 meter time of 13:28 back in December.

There are a lot of scenarios where Kusche emerges as the top collegiate in this race, or even the top finisher! His range is some of the absolute best in the NCAA and he's a powerful miler who knows how to make big, convincing moves late in certain races. Watch out for him over the last few laps.

Kusche's NAU teammate, Theo Quax, ran a 3:58 mile personal best in 2020, but has struggled to get back to that point thanks to the pandemic and a rumored injury.

A mark under four minutes would be a big step in the right direction for Quax who also owns a 1500 meter PR of 3:39. He's a solid talent who knows how to contend with other top talents in the NCAA when he's at 100%.

Despite Nico Young’s converted time last week, it seems safe to say that Quax and Kusche are the two best pure milers on this team. We will likely see that proven this weekend.

However, NAU will not be the only program with a pair of teammates in this field.

Furman’s Cameron Ponder ran 3:59 in the mile last winter before going on to snag an All-American mark in the 3000 meters where he owns a personal best of 7:54. While unlikely to contest the mile at the indoor national meet, especially with extensive depth in the event this year, Ponder will look to lower that mark, potentially into the 3:58 range.

Meanwhile, teammate Aaron Wier will try to make his maiden voyage under the 4:00 mark after running 4:00.6 in 2020. The Furman veteran has actually run a converted sub-four mark before and made it to the indoor national meet last year.

Wier quietly has a lot of strength and is always in the hunt for a top finish. This is likely the strongest field he has ever faced outside of his prelim at the indoor national meet, but the design for this race will be to run fast, not to advance to a non-existent second round.

Finally, Binghamton's all-around distance talent Dan Schaffer looks like he may be focusing on the mile this season after a massive 3:58 performance last week. The rising star from Binghamton likely wants to pursue a faster time in order to solidify his chances of reaching the national meet.

The men's NCAA mile this year may be the deepest it's ever been, potentially leaving fellow 3:58 milers like Schaffer uncertain of their qualifying status for the national meet. Don't be surprised if you see Schaffer and other top milers continually chasing sub-four marks even after they ran 3:58 and 3:59.

Adidas pro and Olympian Robby Andrews has the top mark in this field with a blazing fast time of 3:53, but he hasn’t broken 4:00 since 2017. With that in mind, Fogg is probably the overall favorite, professional or collegian, to win the race, although some may disagree.

One last name to keep an eye on is high school senior Gary Martin who will be attending the University of Virginia next year. He ran 4:04 last spring and could put forth a similar performance to Cruz Culpepper’s 4:00 in 2020.

PREDICTIONS (COLLEGIATES & HIGH SCHOOL ONLY):

1. Adam Fogg (Drake) -- 3:56

2. George Kusche (Northern Arizona) -- 3:56

3. Dan Schaffer (Binghamton) -- 3:58

4. Cameron Ponder (Furman) -- 3:58

5. Aaron Wier (Furman) -- 3:59

6. Theo Quax (Northern Arizona) -- 3:59

7. Gary Martin (Archbishop Wood High School, PA) -- 4:01