Lazy Sunday Chat

The regular season if officially done and teams are now beginning to prepare for what is primed to be a wild championship season. At this point in the season, many of us have a solid idea of what we should expect from most of these teams. When we get to NCAA's, Northern Arizona and BYU will be the clear-cut favorites thanks to their incredible low-sticks and unfathomable depth. Both of these teams are almost guaranteed to qualify for Nationals, so what will be the difference maker when it comes to who emerges on top of the podium? If I had to guess, it'll most likely come down to the star freshmen, Luis Grijalva (NAU) and Casey Clinger (BYU). These two have been crucial to the success of their respective teams and although they have shown that they can perform at big-time meets, NCAA's have always proven to be a challenge for the more inexperienced athletes. In fact, Jacob Choge was the only true freshman to become an All-American last year after he placed 40th overall (the final All-American spot). Joe Klecker of Colorado was an All-American, but he was considered a redshirt freshman. The only other true freshman to place in the top 100 at last year's NCAA Championships was Conor Lundy of Princeton who finished 94th overall.

Let's talk about Colorado, Oregon, and Iona. These three teams all have one thing in common: they didn't run their top ace at Wisconsin/Pre-Nats. The good thing about Colorado is that we know John Dressel is racing this season. He didn't race at Pre-Nats, but we did see him at Notre Dame (where he placed 20th overall). Dressel being held from Pre-Nats was most likely because Wetmore wanted to conserve him for the postseason. As for Oregon, we haven't seen Matthew Maton race at all this season. It's possible that he is being held off from racing until PAC 12's, but his absence is still concerning. Then there is Gilbert Kirui who could possibly be one of the injured Iona runners that Flotrack mentioned in their most recent KOLAS release. If Kirui really is out for the season, then Iona's chances of getting on the podium become very, very slim.

As we digested the results from Wisconsin and Pre-Nats, many people were surprised to see teams like Iowa State, Illinois, and Virginia struggle despite high expectations. For Iowa State, I'm willing to find some excuses after a disappointing performance at Wisconsin. Last weekend was the first major invite of the season for the Cyclones after a team-wide illness plagued the team and forced them to withdraw from Roy Griak. The squad may have been a bit rusty and possibly still feeling the effects of that illness. At the same time, Festus Lagat and Stanley Langat are two JUCO transfers who had never been on a stage that big. If the Wisconsin Invite is your first major race of the season after transferring from a lower level of competition, it can certainly play against your favor.

As for Illinois, I don't think 28th at Wisconsin is a fair indicator of this team's talent. They were runner-up at the Battle in Beantown and later placed 5th to take down two very underrated squads in Middle Tennessee State and Purdue. Wisconsin was their 3rd major invite of the season and at that point, it may be fair to suggest that this team was gassed after three hard races. Most of the time, teams will start the season with a small rust-buster and two high-profile meets. In my mind, you could argue that Illinois has had two rust-busters and three hard efforts. Regardless of how good your team is, that much racing can take a toll on you. Luckily, this two week gap from Wisconsin to BIG 10's may give the Fighting Illini' some time to recover. Don't be surprised if this team rebounds in the postseason.

The Virginia Cavaliers are a bit of different story. They returned their entire NCAA championship squad from last year and enter 2017 much more experienced. Yes, the squad is on the younger side, but I certainly expected better than 30th at the Wisconsin Invite. For a team that was originally ranked 11th in our preseason rankings, I have a hard time believing that they wont be better in the postseason.

Is there any region more unclear than the Mid-Atlanic? Unless something dramatic happens at the conference championships, we are only going to see two teams come out of this region. The only question is...who? Georgetown is the most likely candidate to take a top two spot at the regional championships, but they haven't looked that great this season, especially after placing 14th at Pre-Nats where they lost to teams like Liberty, Tennessee, Charlotte, and Weber State. Those are respectable programs, but historically, Georgetown has been much better than that and towards the top of the results. Nonetheless, let's suppose that Georgetown does place in the top two at their regional championship. Princeton, Navy, Penn, and Penn State will be the ones fighting for the final spot to NCAA's. Penn has an experienced and consistent group at the front of their pack, but their final few scorers lack experience and aren't quite as reliable. At Roy Griak, we saw Navy place four in the top 40, but their 5th man is arguably the reason why they lost to Penn at Paul Short. And Penn State? They've got a rising low-stick in Colin Abert who is flanked by a reliable #2 in Tim McGowan. The rest of their scorers aren't too far off, but their 6th and 7th men don't give them a lot of room for error. As for Princeton, pairing Conor Lundy with an experienced core is extremely valuable for the Tigers. However, after a brutal 14th place finish at Louisville (where they didn't have Lundy), you have to be skeptical as to what this team can really do on the big stage.

If you've been keeping up with our KOLAS projections this season, you know that the teams who are in the "just miss" category are Campbell, Eastern Kentucky, NC State, and Alabama. However, if you're looking for some deep sleepers picks, start looking at Purdue, New Mexico, San Francisco, and California. None of these teams are shown in our KOLAS projections, but if Columbia gets into NCAA's, then each of these teams will have 2 Kolas points. If any of them can have a good day at their conference championships or pull ahead of a projected qualifier at their regional championship, then it's very possible that one of these teams sneak in.

There are a lot of scenarios that we could see unfold within the next few weeks. As the results come in, the Kolas points change, and our questions are answered, The Stride Report will be sure to keep you up to date with new and detailed content.

Get your popcorn ready, the show is about to start.

#XC #ncaa #gzatlin #analysis