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KOLAS: The Stride Report's OFFICIAL 2025 NCAA D1 XC Championship Qualifying Projections
Updated: Nov 13, 2025
Thanks to the incredible work from our friends at collegexc.com, we were able to utilize their website to construct our national meet qualifying projections for the Division One level. Be sure to check out their site and play around with your own regional meet orders!
Don't forget, a total of 32 teams -- not 31 teams -- now advance to the NCAA XC Championships! Learn more about that recent qualifying change here.
If you want to learn more about the Kolas national qualifying process, be sure to also check out our UNDERSTANDING KOLAS page!
With that being said, here are our official qualifying projections for the 2025 national meet. Below, we listed all of our automatic qualifiers (the projected top-two teams in each region) and then broke down how certain teams are expected to receive their at-large bids (the following 14 teams).
Let's begin!
TSR's Men's Regional Predictions
NOTE: TEAMS IN BOLD INDICATE AUTO-LOCKS, LISTED TEAMS ARE NOT NECESSARILY SET OR EXPECTED TO QUALIFY FOR THE NATIONAL MEET
GREAT LAKES
1. Michigan State Spartans
2. Butler Bulldogs
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4. Wisconsin Badgers
5. Michigan Wolverines
6. Toledo Rockets
7. Purdue Boilermakers
MID-ATLANTIC
1. Princeton Tigers
2. Georgetown Hoyas
3. Navy Midshipmen
4. Villanova Wildcats
5. Penn State Nittany Lions
MIDWEST
1. Oklahoma State Cowboys
2. Iowa State Cyclones
3. Oklahoma Sooners
4. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes
5. Missouri Tigers
6. Loyola (IL) Ramblers
7. Minnesota Golden Gophers
MOUNTAIN
1. New Mexico Lobos
2. Colorado Buffaloes
3. BYU Cougars
4. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
5. Air Force Falcons
6. Wyoming Cowboys
7. Utah State Aggies
8. Utah Valley Wolverines
NORTHEAST
1. Syracuse Orange
2. Harvard Crimson
3. Iona Gaels
4. Cornell Big Red
5. Yale Bulldogs
6. Providence Friars
SOUTH
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
2. Georgia Bulldogs
3. Lipscomb Bison
4. Ole Miss Rebels
5. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
6. Tennessee Volunteers
SOUTH CENTRAL
1. Tulane Green Wave
2. Arkansas Razorbacks
3. Texas A&M Aggies
4. Texas Longhorns
SOUTHEAST
1. Virginia Cavaliers
2. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
3. Virginia Tech Hokies
4. North Carolina Tar Heels
5. Eastern Kentucky Colonels
6. Furman Paladins
7. Louisville Cardinals
WEST
1. Oregon Ducks
2. Washington State Cougars
3. California Baptist Lancers
4. Stanford Cardinal
5. Boise State Broncos
6. Portland Pilots
7. Gonzaga Bulldogs
8. Cal Poly Mustangs
9. Washington Huskies
TSR's Projected Men's At-Large Qualifiers
At-Large Bid #1: BYU Cougars
We kick-off our national qualifying at-large selection process by choosing the first eligible team with the most Kolas points. In this case, that is the BYU men who have a total of 13 Kolas points.
By advancing, the Cougars give one Kolas point to Northern Arizona.
At-Large Bid #2: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
The team with the next-most Kolas points (who has not yet been selected) is Northern Arizona. They hold a total of 12 Kolas points.
The Lumberjacks are not expected to give out any Kolas points to any non-selected teams in this scenario.
At-Large Bid #3: Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Notre Dame men and the California Baptist men are tied with three Kolas points each, the most among teams not yet selected for the national meet.
Missouri and Wisconsin also hold three Kolas points each, but they are not yet eligible to be selected for the national meet. However, Notre Dame and California Baptist are eligible.
Notre Dame defeated California Baptist in their lone matchup earlier this season at the Nuttycombe Invite. As such, the Fighting Irish men are the next team selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
Notre Dame gives one Kolas point to Wisconsin.
At-Large Bid #4: Wisconsin Badgers
The team with the next-most Kolas points (who has not yet been selected) is Wisconsin. They hold a total of four Kolas points.
The Badgers are not expected to give out any Kolas points to any non-selected teams in this scenario.
At-Large Bid #5: California Baptist Lancers
Both California Baptist and Missouri hold three Kolas points at this stage in our selection process, the most of any team not yet selected for the national meet. However, Missouri is not yet eligible to qualify -- but CBU is.
The Lancers are selected to qualify for the national meet. California Baptist is not expected to give out any Kolas points to any non-selected teams in this scenario.
At-Large Bid #6: Stanford Cardinal
Missouri holds three Kolas points at this stage in our selection process, the most of any team not yet selected for the national meet. However, Missouri is not yet eligible to be chosen.
Stanford holds the next-most Kolas points (with two) -- and they are eligible to be chosen for the national meet. As such, the Stanford men take this at-large qualifying spot to the national meet.
By advancing, the Cardinal give out two Kolas points to North Carolina as well as one Kolas point (each) to Michigan, Missouri and Virginia Tech.
At-Large Bid #7: Virginia Tech Hokies
Missouri holds four Kolas points at this stage in our selection process, the most of any team not yet selected for the national meet. However, Missouri is not yet eligible to be chosen.
North Carolina is the team that holds the next-most Kolas points (with two) -- and they are eligible to qualify for the national meet. However, in our predictions, we have the UNC men taking 4th place behind Virginia Tech at the Southeast Regional XC Championships.
If the Virginia Tech men were unable to qualify for the national meet on their own, then North Carolina would "push" them into the national meet. However, the NCAA wants to avoid any "push" scenarios when possible. And since we know that UNC will eventually qualify for the national meet later in the selection process, we're able to bypass them for now.
This, in turn, leaves us with Virginia Tech and Michigan. They each have two Kolas points, the most among eligible, non-selected teams at this stage in our national qualifying process.
Virginia Tech and Michigan never faced each other this season, so we can't compare them via head-to-head matchups. Instead, we have to compare the "common opponents" that these two teams shared throughout the season and see which program had the higher winning percentage against those "common opponents."
According to our calculator, that common opponent tie-breaker leans in Virginia Tech's favor. As such, the men from Blacksburg, Virginia are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
The Hokies are not expected to give out any Kolas points to any non-selected teams in this scenario.
At-Large Bid #8: North Carolina Tar Heels
Missouri holds four Kolas points at this stage in our selection process, the most of any team not yet selected for the national meet. However, Missouri is not yet eligible to be chosen.
North Carolina is the team that holds the next-most Kolas points (with three) -- and they are eligible to qualify for the national meet. As such, the Tar Heel men take this at-large qualifying spot to the national meet.
In turn, UNC gives one Kolas point (each) to Cal Poly, Louisville, Loyola (IL) and Minnesota.
At-Large Bid #9: Michigan Wolverines
Missouri holds four Kolas points at this stage in our selection process, the most of any team not yet selected for the national meet. However, Missouri is not yet eligible to be chosen.
Michigan is the team that holds the next-most Kolas points (with two) -- and they are eligible to qualify for the national meet. As such, the Michigan men take this at-large qualifying spot to the national meet.
The Wolverines give out one Kolas point (each) to Air Force, Eastern Kentucky and Missouri.
At-Large Bid #10: Oklahoma Sooners
Missouri holds five Kolas points at this stage in our selection process, the most of any team not yet selected for the national meet. However, Missouri is not yet eligible to be chosen.
Both Loyola (IL) and Minnesota hold two Kolas points at this stage in our selection process. Other than Missouri, that is the most Kolas points of any team not yet selected for the national meet. However, much like Missouri, neither of those teams are eligible to qualify.
Here is where things begin to get crazy.
Cal Poly, Louisville, Utah State and Wichita State each have one Kolas point. However, none of those teams are eligible to be chosen for the national meet at this stage in our selection process.
Tulsa also has one Kolas point and they are eligible to be selected. However, in our predictions, we have the Tulsa men taking 4th place behind Oklahoma at the Midwest Regional XC Championships.
If the Oklahoma men were unable to qualify for the national meet on their own, then Tulsa would "push" them into the national meet. However, the NCAA wants to avoid any "push" scenarios when possible. And since we know that Tulsa will eventually qualify for the national meet later in the selection process, we're able to bypass them for now.
Oklahoma, Air Force, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Texas and Eastern Kentucky all have one Kolas point each. They are all eligible to be selected for the national meet.
This season, Oklahoma has not faced Air Force or Eastern Kentucky. However, they are undefeated against Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Texas. In turn, those latter three teams are not chosen at this stage in our selection process.
Similarly, Air Force defeated Eastern Kentucky in their lone matchup at the Gans Creek Classic earlier this fall. In turn, the EKU men are not chosen at this stage in our selection process.
This leaves us with Oklahoma and Air Force.
Oklahoma and Air Force never faced each other this season, so we can't compare them via head-to-head matchups. Instead, we have to compare the "common opponents" that these two teams shared throughout the season and see which program had the higher winning percentage against those "common opponents."
According to our calculator, that common opponent tie-breaker leans in Oklahoma's favor. As such, the men from Norman, Oklahoma are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
The Sooners are expected to give out one Kolas point to Tulsa in this scenario.
At-Large Bid #11: Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Missouri holds five Kolas points at this stage in our selection process, the most of any team not yet selected for the national meet. And unlike in previous stages of our selection process, they are now eligible to be chosen.
However, in our predictions, we have the Missouri men taking 5th place behind Tulsa at the Midwest Regional XC Championships.
If the Tulsa men were unable to qualify for the national meet on their own, then Missouri would "push" them into the national meet. However, the NCAA wants to avoid any "push" scenarios when possible. And since we know that Missouri will eventually qualify for the national meet later in the selection process, we're able to bypass them for now.
Both Loyola (IL) and Minnesota hold two Kolas points at this stage in our selection process. Other than Missouri and Tulsa, that is the most Kolas points of any team not yet selected for the national meet. However, neither of those teams are eligible to be chosen at this point in our selection process.
This, in turn, leaves us with Tulsa. They also have two Kolas points, the most Kolas points among eligible teams that don't create a push scenario. As such, they are selected to qualify for the national meet at this stage in our selection process.
As a result, the Golden Hurricane give one Kolas point (each) to Eastern Kentucky, Gonzaga, Iona, Lipscomb, Louisville and Utah State.
At-Large Bid #12: Missouri Tigers
Missouri holds five Kolas points at this stage in our selection process, the most of any team not yet selected for the national meet. And after much waiting, the Tigers are now given an at-large bid to the NCAA XC Championships.
In turn, the Tigers give one Kolas point to Wichita State.
At-Large Bid #13: Loyola Ramblers (IL)
Loyola (IL), Minnesota and Eastern Kentucky each hold two Kolas points. Those three teams are all eligible to be selected at this stage in our national qualifying process.
Louisville, Utah State and Wichita State also have two Kolas points each. However, none of those three teams are eligible to be selected at this stage in our national qualifying process.
Loyola (IL) defeated Minnesota three times this season -- once at the Loyola Lakefront Invite, once at Pre-Nationals and, based on our predictions, once at the Midwest Regional XC Championships. As such, Minnesota is not selected.
Loyola (IL) and Eastern Kentucky never faced each other this season, so we can't compare them via head-to-head matchups. Instead, we have to compare the "common opponents" that these two teams shared throughout the season and see which program had the higher winning percentage against those "common opponents."
According to our calculator, that common opponent tie-breaker leans in Loyola (IL)'s favor. As such, the men from Chicago, Illinois are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
In turn, the Ramblers give one Kolas point (each) to Ole Miss and Texas.
At-Large Bid #14: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
Eastern Kentucky, Minnesota, Louisville, Utah State, Wichita State, Ole Miss and Texas all have two Kolas points, each. Those five teams are all eligible to be selected at this stage in our national qualifying process.
There is, however, a catch.
We have Texas projected to place 4th at the South Central Regional XC Championships behind Texas A&M. In order for the Longhorns to qualify for the national meet, they would need to also push Texas A&M into the NCAA XC Championships.
However, since there is only one national qualifying spot remaining, a push scenario cannot happen. As such, neither Texas nor Texas A&M will be able to qualify for the national meet in this Kolas scenario.
Louisville and Utah State also have two Kolas points each. However, those two teams are not eligible to be selected at this stage in our national qualifying process. And considering that this is the final spot remaining in our selection process, neither of those teams will qualify for this year's national meet in our projected scenario.
Minnesota and Wichita State each lost to Ole Miss at Pre-Nationals earlier this season, meaning that Minnesota and Wichita State will not qualify for the national meet in The Stride Report's Kolas scenario.
However, Eastern Kentucky defeated Ole Miss at the Gans Creek Classic earlier this fall and they did not lose to any of the other teams that we have mentioned in this step. In turn, the Colonels win the tie-breaker and secure the final qualifying spot to the 2025 NCAA XC Championships.
If there had been any further Kolas calculations, Eastern Kentucky would have given one Kolas point (each) to Air Force, Gonzaga and Louisville.
First Team Out: Air Force Falcons
If we were to continue our Kolas math beyond the 14 at-large bids, which team would emerge as the "First Team Out" of the national meet?
Louisville has three Kolas points. However, we have Furman projected to place 6th at the Southeast Regional XC Championships ahead of Louisville. In order for the Cardinals to be considered the "First Team Out," they would need to also push Texas A&M.
However, since there is only one "First Team Out" spot remaining, a push scenario cannot happen. As such, neither Louisville nor Furman are considered to be the "First Team Out."
Air Force, Minnesota, Wichita State, Ole Miss and Texas each hold two Kolas points. Those five teams are also eligible to be selected if there was an additional stage in our national qualifying process.
Utah State also has two Kolas points. However, they are not eligible to be selected at this non-existent stage in our national qualifying process.
We have Texas projected to place 4th at the South Central Regional XC Championships behind Texas A&M. In order for the Longhorns to qualify for the national meet, they would need to also push Texas A&M.
However, since there is only one national qualifying spot remaining with this non-existent at-large spot, a push scenario cannot happen. As such, neither Texas nor Texas A&M are considered to be the "First Team Out."
Minnesota and Wichita State each lost to Ole Miss at Pre-Nationals earlier this season, meaning that neither Minnesota and Wichita State are not viewed as the "First Team Out."
Meanwhile, Air Force defeated Ole Miss at the Gans Creek Classic earlier this fall and didn't lose to any other teams mentioned in this step. As such, the Falcon men would win the tie-breaker and be considered the dreaded "First Team Out" of the national meet.
TSR's Women's Regional Predictions
NOTE: TEAMS IN BOLD INDICATE AUTO-LOCKS, LISTED TEAMS ARE NOT NECESSARILY SET OR EXPECTED TO QUALIFY FOR THE NATIONAL MEET
GREAT LAKES
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2. Michigan State Spartans
3. Wisconsin Badgers
4. Toledo Rockets
5. Ohio Bobcats
MID-ATLANTIC
1. West Virginia Mountaineers
2. Penn State Nittany Lions
3. Georgetown Hoyas
4. Villanova Wildcats
5. Princeton Tigers
MIDWEST
1. Iowa State Cyclones
2. Northwestern Wildcats
3. Oklahoma State Cowgirls
4. Missouri Tigers
5. Minnesota Golden Gophers
6. Nebraska Cornhuskers
MOUNTAIN
1. BYU Cougars
2. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
3. New Mexico Lobos
4. Colorado Buffaloes
5. Utah Utes
6. Utah Valley Wolverines
7. Air Force Falcons
NORTHEAST
1. Boston College Golden Eagles
2. Syracuse Orange
3. Providence Friars
4. Connecticut Huskies
5. Yale Bulldogs
SOUTH
1. Florida Gators
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
3. Tennessee Volunteers
4. Florida State Seminoles
5. Lipscomb Bison
SOUTH CENTRAL
1. LSU Tigers
2. Texas A&M Aggies
3. Tulane Green Wave
4. Arkansas Razorbacks
5. Southern Methodist Mustangs
6. Texas Longhorns
SOUTHEAST
1. NC State Wolfpack
2. North Carolina Tar Heels
3. Virginia Cavaliers
4. South Carolina Gamecocks
5. Duke Blue Devils
6. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
7. Furman Paladins
8. Virginia Tech Hokies
WEST
1. Oregon Ducks
2. Stanford Cardinal
3. Washington Huskies
4. Washington State Cougars
5. Gonzaga Bulldogs
6. Boise State Broncos
7. California Baptist Lancers
8. Oregon State Beavers
TSR's Projected Women's At-Large Qualifiers
At-Large Bid #1: Georgetown Hoyas
We kick-off our women's national qualifying at-large selection process by looking for the teams that have the most Kolas points. We are also looking for teams who are eligible to be chosen at this step in our selection process.
Both Colorado and Utah have nine Kolas points, the most of any team not yet selected for the national meet. Colorado is eligible to chosen at this point in our selection process.
We are currently projecting the Buffaloes to place 4th at the Mountain Regional XC Championships, one spot behind New Mexico. In order for Colorado to be selected right now, they would need to also push the Lobos into the national meet.
However, the NCAA wants to avoid any "push" scenarios when possible. And since we know that Colorado will eventually qualify for the national meet later in the selection process without a push, we're able to bypass them for now.
As for Utah, they are not yet eligible to be selected for the national meet.
Duke has the next-most Kolas points (eight) among teams that have not yet been selected for the national meet. However, they are not yet eligible to be chosen for national qualification.
Georgetown, Virginia and Washington State have the next-most Kolas points (seven) among teams that have not yet been selected for the national meet. All three of these teams are eligible to be chosen for national qualification at this stage in our selection process.
Virginia and Washington State faced each other once this season at the Gans Creek Classic. There, Virginia defeated Washington State, giving the Cavalier women a zero-loss head-to-head record.
Georgetown and Washington State faced each other once this season at the Nuttycombe Invite. There, Georgetown defeated Washington State, giving the Hoya women a zero-loss head-to-head record.
Virginia and Georgetown never faced each other this season, so we can't compare them via head-to-head matchups. Instead, we have to compare the "common opponents" that these two teams shared throughout the season and see which program had the higher winning percentage against those "common opponents."
According to our calculator, that common opponent tie-breaker leans in Georgetown's favor. As such, the women from Washington, DC are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
The Hoyas are expected to give out one Kolas point to Villanova in this scenario.
At-Large Bid #2: Virginia Cavaliers
Once again, Colorado and Utah have the most Kolas points (nine each) among teams not yet selected for the national meet. However, we're still waiting for Colorado to not create a push scenario while Utah still isn't eligible to be selected. The same can be said for Duke, a team that has eight Kolas points.
Virginia and Washington State have the next-most Kolas points (seven) among teams that have not yet been selected for the national meet. These two teams are eligible to be chosen for national qualification at this stage in our selection process.
Virginia and Washington State faced each other once this season at the Gans Creek Classic. There, Virginia defeated Washington State, allowing the Cavaliers to win the head-to-head tie-breaker. In turn, UVA is selected to qualify for the national meet.
The Cavaliers are expected to give out one Kolas point to Colorado in this scenario.
At-Large Bid #3: Washington Huskies
Colorado has the most Kolas points (10) among teams not yet selected for the national meet. However, we're still waiting for Colorado to not create a push scenario. The same can be said for Duke. They have eight Kolas points, but we need to wait to select them until they don't create a push scenario.
Meanwhile, Utah (nine Kolas points) is still not eligible to be selected.
The Washington State women have the next-most Kolas points (seven) among teams that have not yet qualified for the national meet. They are eligible to be selected for national qualification.
We are currently projecting the Cougars to place 4th at the West Regional XC Championships, one spot behind Washington. In order for Washington State to be selected right now, they would need to also push the Huskies into the national meet.
However, the NCAA wants to avoid any "push" scenarios when possible. And since we know that Washington State will eventually qualify for the national meet later in the selection process without a push, we're able to bypass them for now.
This leaves us with Washington and Wake Forest. They have the next-most Kolas points (six) among teams that have not yet qualified for the national meet.
However, Wake Forest is not yet eligible to be selected. As such, the Washington women are the next team chosen to advance to the national meet.
The Huskies are expected to give out one Kolas point (each) to Colorado, Gonzaga, New Mexico, Utah and Wisconsin.
At-Large Bid #4: Washington State Cougars
Colorado has the most Kolas points (11) among teams not yet selected for the national meet. However, we're still waiting for Colorado to not create a push scenario. The same can be said for Duke who has eight Kolas points.
Meanwhile, Utah (10 Kolas points) is still not eligible to be selected.
The Washington State women have the next-most Kolas points (seven) among teams that have not yet qualified for the national meet. They are eligible to be selected for national qualification and this time, they don't create a push scenario.
As such, the Cougars are selected to qualify for the national meet.
Washington State is expected to give out one Kolas point (each) to Missouri, New Mexico and Wisconsin as well as two Kolas points (each) to Colorado and Utah.
At-Large Bid #5: New Mexico Lobos
Colorado has the most Kolas points (13) among teams not yet selected for the national meet. However, we're still waiting for Colorado to not create a push scenario. The same can be said for Duke who has eight Kolas points.
Meanwhile, Utah (12 Kolas points) is still not eligible to be selected.
New Mexico, Missouri and Wisconsin have the next-most Kolas points (six) among teams who have not yet been selected for the national meet. They are all eligible to be chosen for national qualification at this stage in our selection process. Wake Forest also has six Kolas points, but they are still not eligible to be selected.
New Mexico defeated Wisconsin in their lone matchup this season. As such, the Badger women are not being considered for this at-large spot during this stage in our selection process.
New Mexico and Missouri never faced each other this season, so we can't compare them via head-to-head matchups. Instead, we have to compare the "common opponents" that these two teams shared throughout the season and see which program had the higher winning percentage against those "common opponents."
According to our calculator, that common opponent tie-breaker leans in New Mexico's favor. As such, the women from Albuquerque, New Mexico are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
The Lobos are expected to give out one Kolas point to Oklahoma State in this scenario.
At-Large Bid #6: Colorado Buffaloes
Colorado holds 13 Kolas points at this stage in our selection process, the most of any team not yet selected for the national meet. And after much waiting, the Buffaloes are able to be selected now that they don't create a push scenario.
In turn, the Buffaloes give one Kolas point (each) to Oklahoma State, Utah and Wisconsin.
At-Large Bid #7: Utah Utes
Utah holds 13 Kolas points at this stage in our selection process, the most of any team not yet selected for the national meet. And after much waiting, the Utes are now eligible to be selected.
In turn, the Utah women give one Kolas point to Oklahoma State.
At-Large Bid #8: Wisconsin Badgers
Duke has the most Kolas points (eight) among teams not yet selected for the national meet. However, we're still waiting to select Duke when they don't create a push scenario in the Southeast region.
The team with the next-most Kolas points (who has not yet been selected) is Wisconsin. They hold a total of seven Kolas points.
The Badgers are not expected to give out any Kolas points to any non-selected teams in this scenario.
At-Large Bid #9: Oklahoma State Cowgirls (push)
At-Large Bid #10: Missouri Tigers
Duke has the most Kolas points (eight) among teams not yet selected for the national meet. However, we're still waiting to select Duke when they don't create a push scenario in the Southeast region.
Missouri and Wake Forest both have the next-most amount of Kolas points (six) among teams who have not yet been selected. However, Wake Forest is still not eligible to be chosen at this point in our national qualification process.
This, in turn, leaves Missouri to be chosen for a spot to the national meet. However, The Stride Report is predicting Missouri to place 4th at the Midwest Regional XC Championships, one spot behind Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma State does not have enough Kolas points to qualify for the national meet on their own in this Kolas scenario. As such, they are pushed into the NCAA XC Championships by Missouri who also advances to the season finale.
Since the Cowgirls were pushed into the national meet, they don't give out any Kolas points to any teams still waiting to be selected. That said, Missouri does give one Kolas points (each) South Carolina and Villanova.
At-Large Bid #11: Villanova Wildcats
Duke has the most Kolas points (eight) among teams not yet selected for the national meet. However, we're still waiting to select Duke when they don't create a push scenario in the Southeast region.
Meanwhile, Wake Forest has the next-most Kolas points (six), but they are not yet eligible to be chosen.
Villanova and Gonzaga both have five Kolas points, the most among teams who are eligible to be selected at this point in our national qualifying process.
Villanova and Gonzaga never faced each other this season, so we can't compare them via head-to-head matchups. Instead, we have to compare the "common opponents" that these two teams shared throughout the season and see which program had the higher winning percentage against those "common opponents."
According to our calculator, that common opponent tie-breaker leans in Villanova's favor. As such, the Wildcat women are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
Villanova is not expected to give out any Kolas points to any non-selected teams in this scenario.
At-Large Bid #12: Gonzaga Bulldogs
Duke has the most Kolas points (eight) among teams not yet selected for the national meet. However, we're still waiting to select Duke when they don't create a push scenario in the Southeast region.
Meanwhile, Wake Forest has the next-most Kolas points (six), but they are not yet eligible to be chosen.
Gonzaga has five Kolas points, the most among teams who are eligible to be selected at this point in our national qualifying process. As such, the Bulldog women are the next team selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
Gonzaga is not expected to give out any Kolas points to any non-selected teams in this scenario.
At-Large Bid #13: South Carolina Gamecocks
Duke has the most Kolas points (eight) among teams not yet selected for the national meet. However, we're still waiting to select Duke when they don't create a push scenario in the Southeast region.
Meanwhile, Wake Forest has the next-most Kolas points (six), but they are not yet eligible to be chosen.
South Carolina and Tennessee both have four Kolas points, the most among teams who are eligible to be selected at this point in our national qualifying process.
South Carolina and Tennessee faced each other once this season at the SEC XC Championships. There, South Carolina defeated Tennessee, allowing the Gamecocks to win the head-to-head tie-breaker. In turn, South Carolina is selected to qualify for the national meet.
The Gamecocks are not expected to give out any Kolas points to any non-selected teams in this scenario.
At-Large Bid #14: Duke Blue Devils
Duke holds eight Kolas points at this stage in our selection process, the most of any team not yet selected for the national meet. And after much waiting, the Blue Devils are able to be selected now that they don't create a push scenario.
If there had been any further Kolas calculations, Duke would have given one Kolas point to Wake Forest.
First Team Out: Wake Forest Demon Deacons
If we were to continue our Kolas math beyond the 14 at-large bids, which team would emerge as the "First Team Out" of the national meet?
Wake Forest would have seven Kolas points, the most among any team not selected for the national meet. And unlike earlier, the Demon Deacons were actually eligible to selected for the national meet once South Carolina earned a spot.
Of course, with Duke having more Kolas points, and only one national qualifying spot remaining, the Blue Devils were given the nod in this scenario instead of Wake Forest.
With no tie-breakers needed, Wake Forest is the women's "First Team Out" of the national meet in The Stride Report's official 2025 Kolas projections.
