Husky Classic Preview

Each and every year, the Dempsey indoor track facility in Seattle, Washington plays host to one of the biggest and best February track and field meets in the NCAA. That meet, of course, is the Husky Classic.

The distance fields for some of these meets are so large, so talented and so expansive that it would be impossible to talk about every nationally competitive runner in every single distance event. However, our group of TSR writers opted to answer a few prompts about each of these fields, offering their analysis, rapid reactions, predictions and more.

Let's get started...

CLICK HERE FOR HEAT SHEETS

NOTE: For timing reasons, this preview is based on the "accepted entries" file. It is possible that changes were made between the time that the "accepted entries" files and the "heat sheets" files were released for this meet.

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Women’s 800 meters

Who is the bigger favorite: BYU's Claire Seymour or Villanova's McKenna Keegan? Who is the biggest threat to those two women, collegiately?

Garrett: I’d say that these two women are fairly even as both of these middle distance runners are incredibly accomplished at the half-mile distance. However, Seymour has a slight edge, in my opinion, due to her postseason success, past consistency and recent experience racing against a top-level pro in Sage Hurta at the Armory.

Based on all of that, I’ll go with Seymour.

As for their biggest threat, I suppose it has to be Carley Thomas. The Washington ace has a history of running 2:02 and is slowly returning to form after sustaining a brutal injury from last year. I’m not sure if she’s necessarily at her top form yet, but that small possibility makes me think that she could be the biggest threat to Seymour and Keegan this weekend.

Maura: I’m going to have to agree with Garrett on this one. Seymour has more experience and postseason success than Keegan does. Also, Keegan has yet to compete in an open 800 meter race this season and she just recorded a DNF result in the 400 meters. It’s hard to gauge where she is compared to Seymour who is coming off of a solid runner-up finish via a time mark of 2:04.

As for their biggest threat, I’m going to go with 4:34 miler Taylor Roe of Oklahoma State. Roe currently has a 2:08 mark for 800 meters, but has dropped both her mile and 3k personal bests by significant margins.

Will Roe have the leg speed to keep up with the likes of Seymour, Keegan and Thomas? Honestly, I don’t know, but she surely has the endurance.

Gavin: Seymour's and Keegan’s resumes stack up nicely, but the fact that the former hasn't run an 800 meter race this season makes me think that Seymour is the slight favorite. The BYU talent does have the slower PR, but she finished higher at both the indoor national meet and the outdoor national meet last year.

Plus, as Maura mentioned, Seymour has already run 2:04 this season. What's not to like?

In a solid field that has a relative dearth of superstars, I’m also going to go with Roe as the top collegiate challenger to Seymour and Keegan.

It’s more likely than not that the Cowgirls long distance ace finishes behind Seymour and Keegan, but I could envision Roe having a breakout race in terms of her flashing some unforeseen middle distance speed. Her 4:34 mile time and recent track success suggests that she should at least have the fitness to run around 2:05.

Men’s 800 meters

Despite being a freshman, is it safe to say that Stanford’s John Lester is the collegiate favorite in this field? If not, then who is?

Garrett: I don’t usually pick rookies for these kinds of questions, but Lester has run 1:47 for 800 meters in high school and ran 1:48 for 800 meters back in late January. Sure, other names like Cass Elliott (Washington) or Sam Van Dorpe (USC) have proven to be solid middle distance talents in their own right, but Lester has a spark this season, as well as a recent win over a really solid field at the Razorback Invitational.

So when all is said and done, I’ll say Lester is the favorite.

Maura: With just one race under his belt, Lester has already proven that he could be the real deal this season. The Stanford freshman won his first collegiate 800 meter race in a time of 1:48 at the Razorback Invitational and has momentum heading into this weekend.

There is a lot on the line this weekend besides just a win. Lester and his competitors will need a big result, specifically one in the low 1:48 range, to move themselves into NCAA qualifying positions.

That's a lot of pressure for a single rookie, but Lester showed a surprising amount of poise at the Razorback Invitational. Given the collegiate challengers around him, I'll have to agree and say that he is the favorite.

Gavin: In spite of his youth, Lester should be the clear favorite to finish as the top collegian in this men’s 800 field. The 1:47 high school half-miler already proved that he was capable of translating his fitness to the next level when he won this race at the Razorback Invitational with a 1:48 mark.

With pro talents in the field, a fast race should play to his strengths. Van Dorpe will provide solid collegiate competition, but Lester’s early achievements at the collegiate level give him the edge over his PAC-12 rival.

Women’s Mile

Rapid-Fire: Give your quick answers to these questions...

Who is your favorite (collegiately) in this race?

Garrett: Courtney Wayment (BYU)

Maura: Courtney Wayment (BYU)

Gavin: Courtney Wayment (BYU)

Amongst collegiates, who is best positioned to pull off an upset?

Garrett: Katie Camarena (Portland State)

Maura: Madison Heisterman (Washington)

Gavin: Krissy Gear (Arkansas)

Who would benefit the most from a strong result this weekend?

Garrett: Rachel McArthur (Colorado)

Maura: Krissy Gear (Arkansas)

Gavin: Lauren Gregory (Arkansas)

Who are you the most unsure about?

Garrett: Krissy Gear (Arkansas)

Maura: Heather Hanson (BYU)

Gavin: Rachel McArthur (Colorado)

Who is primed for a breakout race?

Garrett: Logan Jolly (Arkansas)

Maura: Kaylee Mitchell (Oregon State)

Gavin: Quinn Owen (Arkansas)

How many collegiate sub-4:40 results will we see?

Garrett: 9

Maura: 7

Gavin: 7

Men’s Mile

Rapid-Fire: Give your quick answers to these questions...

Who is your favorite (collegiately) in this race?

Maura: Colton Johnsen (Washington State)

Garrett: Colton Johnsen (Washington State)

Gavin: Luke Houser (Washington)

Amongst collegiates, who is best positioned to pull off an upset?

Maura: Luke Houser (Washington)

Garrett: Luke Houser (Washington)

Gavin: Zach Stallings (Washington State)

Who would benefit the most from a strong result?

Maura: Duncan Hamilton (Montana State)

Garrett: George Kusche (Northern Arizona)

Gavin: Theo Quax (Northern Arizona)

Who are you the most unsure about?

Maura: George Kusche (Northern Arizona)

Garrett: Alex Maier (Oklahoma State)

Gavin: George Kusche (Northern Arizona)

Who is primed for a breakout race?

Maura: Alex Maier (Oklahoma State)

Garrett: Alex Stitt (Oklahoma State)

Gavin: Joe Waskom (Washington)

How many collegiate sub-4:00 results will we see?

Maura: 11

Garrett: 12

Gavin: 10

Women’s 3000 meters

Which collegiate has the greatest chance of taking down Arkansas’ Lauren Gregory in this field: Katie Camarena, Allie Schadler, Kaylee Mitchell, Lexy Halladay or someone else? And why?

Maura: I’m really liking Katie Camarena this season. The Portland State standout has consistently been running head-turning times. Although she only improved upon her 3000 meter PR by three seconds when she ran 9:16 a few weeks ago, her recent 4:34 mile mark makes me believe that a faster 3k is possible. If she is still in this race in the latter stages, then she may have enough turnover to make some noise.

Garrett: Despite Washington's Allie Schadler not totally wowing me this season, I still think she has the best chance of taking down Gregory. She is experienced, super versatile and is about to toe the line for her ideal event.

When she’s at her best, Schadler is arguably on the same level as Gregory. The problem, however, is trying to figure out if Schadler will be at her peak fitness this weekend. The Husky veteran did run a 4:35 mile earlier this season, but will that be enough momentum to make her a realistic challenger against Gregory?

Gavin: I also like Schadler as having the best odds of defeating Gregory. She holds a sub-9:00 PR for 3000 meters which is fairly close to Gregory's PR. Not only that, but Schadler has beaten Camarena this season in this exact event. Plus, she did run a quick 4:35 mile as of late.

Even if Schadler hasn’t been at her peak, she appears to be pretty close to it.

Men’s 3000 meters

How far under the 7:50 barrier will the Northern Arizona duo of Nico Young and Abdi Nur go? Which other collegiates will join them under that barrier?

Garrett: I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I think that in an absolutely perfect scenario, Young could run 7:41 or 7:42 while Nur could run 7:43 or 7:44. If this pace is aggressive enough, then this NAU duo has the potential to throw down a scary-good mark on the same track where they have already run 3:56 and 3:55, respectively, this season.

As for the others in this field, I think Butler’s Simon Bedard and Washington State’s Colton Johnsen both have the perfect balance of mile speed and 5k endurance. The 3000 meters seems like the perfect middle ground for them.

Both of those guys will go under 7:50, as will Northern Arizona’s Drew Bosley (who thrives in aggressively-paced races), Colorado’s Eduardo Herrera (who is due for a big-time performance) and, as a major sleeper pick, Stanford freshman Robert DiDonato (who has some of the best raw fitness I have ever seen in a high schooler).

With maybe one more surprise, I could realistically see eight men going under the 7:50 barrier this weekend in Seattle.

Maura: Seeing that 13 men this season have already gone under the 7:50 barrier this season, I’m fully expecting Young and Nur to jump those 13 men and run in the 7:40 to 7:43 range. These two distance talents have posted stellar mile times this year, both at altitude and at sea level. Their early-season 5k times were wildly impressive and right now, it's hard to dislike anything about them.

In addition to Garrett's list, I would also consider Abdirizak Ibrahim (New Mexico) who ran 13:32 in December, Nate Ostersrock (Southern Utah) who ran an altitude converted 3:56 mile and Ryan Raff (Northern Arizona) who is coming off of a major 13:34 altitude converted 5k from last weekend.

Will all of these men, plus Garrett's list, run under 7:50? Maybe not, but on paper, they all certainly can and that's what makes this field so incredibly exciting.

Gavin: It seems fair to say that both Young and Nur are fit enough to challenge the NCAA-leading mark of 7:43, give or take a few seconds. It will be interesting to see if Nur’s newfound mile speed combined with his long distance acumen can lead to a breakout time. He has beaten Young twice this season -- once in a 5k and once in a mile -- so it would not be a surprise to see him beat his more-heralded teammate once more.

While the two Lumberjacks appear to be the slight favorites, a slew of other superstars should be joining them under the 7:50 barrier. Eduardo Herrera (Colorado), Colton Johnsen (Washington State), Dario De Caro (Boise State), Abdirizak Ibrahim (New Mexico) and Isai Rodriguez (Oklahoma State) all seem more likely than not to dip under that barrier given their prior credentials.

Other names like Duncan Hamilton (Montana State), Drew Bosley (Northern Arizona), Jonathan Shields (Boise State), Simon Bedard (Butler), Christian Allen (Weber State) have a very good chance of joining them under that 7:50 mark.

This race will have large implications for the nationals picture with the NCAA #16 mark standing at a blazing 7:51 entering the weekend.

As we just detailed, it seems like there are well over 10 collegiates in this field who could dramatically redraw the NCAA qualifying line for the men's 3000 meters. Even if some names don't deliver as expected, it's very possible that we'll end this weekend with someone who isn't in national qualifying position despite running 7:49 this season.

Women’s 5000 meters

Give us your top-10 collegiates (in order) for this race and indicate your predicted time next to their finish.

Garrett:

1. Amelia Mazza-Downie (New Mexico) – 15:38

2. Gabby Hentemann (Oklahoma State) – 15:41

3. Haley Herberg (Washington) – 15:46

4. Ruby Smee (San Francisco) – 15:48

5. Summer Allen (Weber State) – 15:50

6. Emily Covert (Colorado) – 15:51

7. Aubrey Frentheway (BYU) – 15:51

8. Billie Hatch (Weber State) – 15:52

9. Cara Woolnough (Utah) – 15:55

10. Bethany Graham (Furman) – 15:58

Maura:

1. Gabby Hentemann (Oklahoma State) – 15:40

2. Emily Covert (Colorado) – 15:42

3. Aubrey Frentheway (BYU) – 15:42

4. Amelia Mazza-Downie (New Mexico) – 15:44

5. Ruby Smee (San Francisco) – 15:47

6. Billie Hatch (Weber State) – 15:49

7. India Johnson (Colorado) – 15:49

8. Summer Allen (Weber State) – 15:52

9. Haley Herberg (Washington ) – 15:54

10. Emily Venters (Utah) – 15:59

Gavin:

1. Emily Covert (Colorado) - 15:42

2. Amelia Mazza-Downie (New Mexico) - 15:44

3. Aubrey Frentheway (BYU) - 15:46

4. Haley Herberg (Washington) - 15:46

5. Lucy Jenks (Stanford) - 15:47

6. Summer Allen (Weber State) - 15:47

7. Gabby Hentemann (Oklahoma State) - 15:49

8. Bethany Graham (Furman) - 15:52

9. Billie Hatch (Weber State) - 15:57

10. Ruby Smee (San Francisco) - 15:58

Men’s 5000 meters

Give us your top-10 collegiates (in order) for this race and indicate your predicted time next to their finish.

Garrett:

1. Charles Hicks (Stanford) – 13:33

2. Alex Maier (Oklahoma State) – 13:35

3. Amon Kemboi (Arkansas) – 13:38

4. Cole Sprout (Stanford) – 13:38

5. Brian Fay (Washington) – 13:39

6. Brandon Garnica (BYU) – 13:39

7. Devin Hart (Stanford) – 13:40

8. Duncan Hamilton (Montana State) – 13:42

9. Thomas Pollard (Iowa State) – 13:43

10. Shea Foster (Oklahoma State) – 13:45

Maura:

1. Charles Hicks (Stanford) - 13:34

2. Thomas Pollard (Iowa State) - 13:37

3. Devin Hart (Stanford) - 13:37

4. Brandon Garnica (BYU) - 13:41

5. Alex Maier (Oklahoma State) - 13:42

6. Duncan Hamilton (Montana State) - 13:42

7. Amon Kemboi (Arkansas) - 13:45

8. Cole Sprout (Stanford) - 13:45

9. Brian Fay (Washington) - 13:49

10. Shea Foster (Oklahoma State) - 13:52

Gavin:

1. Charles Hicks (Stanford) - 13:26

2. Brian Fay (Washington) - 13:27

3. Amon Kemboi (Arkansas) - 13:28

4. Brandon Garnica (BYU) - 13:29

5. Alex Maier (Oklahoma State) - 13:29

6. Cole Sprout (Stanford) - 13:30

7. Shea Foster (Oklahoma State) - 13:34

8. Isaac Green (Washington) - 13:37

9. Devin Hart (Stanford) - 13:42

10. Duncan Hamilton (Montana State) - 13:43