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Gauging Impact (Part Nine)
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Jun 30, 2024
- 9 min read
One of my favorite pieces of content during the summer pertains to transfers. And while reporting on each of these moves can be plenty fun, sitting down and dissecting their potential impacts is arguably just as entertaining.
That, of course, is where our "Gauging Impact" series comes in.
In this series, we evaluate three high-level distance talents who are transferring this summer. The goal is to figure out if an athlete's former team had a greater loss of talent relative to the value gained by the new team that he or she is transferring to.
If that sounds complex, it's just because I'm not explaining it well.
You'll get the gist when you start reading.
As we mentioned last year, there are a few top-tier runners who we didn't mention in this edition of "Gauging Impact". That, however, is because their transfer scenarios are relatively easy to analyze.
So with that, let's begin...
NOTE: Graduate transfer scenarios (such as Amina Maatoug and Simon Kelati) can sometimes be anticipated by certain schools/coaches. Those moves are not always a reflection of a program's ability to retain (or not retain) talent.
Hilda Olemomoi: Bigger Gain for Florida? Or Bigger Loss for Alabama?
Each and every summer, there is always one superstar name (at the very least) who headlines the transfer portal. And in 2024, that name was Hilda Olemomoi, the now-former Alabama runner.
During her two years with the Crimson Tide, Olemomoi was beyond brilliant. With personal best marks of 8:45 (3k), 15:06 (5k) and 31:51 (10k), the Kenyan ace had an argument of being the second-best long distance runner in the nation behind Parker Valby (although then-teammate Doris Lemngole certainly had an argument for that title as well).
With a total of nine All-American honors between all three seasons of competition, two of which were top-10 finishes at the NCAA XC Championships, it's not often that you find someone of Olemomoi's caliber in the transfer portal.
It was truthfully not much of a surprise to see Olemomoi sign with Florida. Her former coach at Alabama, Will Palmer, left Tuscaloosa last summer to join that Gators' as their lead distance coach. And with scholarship money likely available with Parker Valby now gone, it made sense that if Olemomoi was going to transfer anywhere, it was going to be to Gainesville.
But what does this headline-worthy news mean in the grander scheme of things?
Well, let's first start with Florida.
The Florida women just lost a massive amount of talent due to expired eligibility and graduations. In fact, the high-octane scoring quartet of Parker Valby, Flomena Asekol, Amelia Mazza-Downie and Elise Thorner are not returning returning for next year. That, in turn, has left Coach Will Palmer with plenty of work to do.
Yes, it's true, the Gators are bringing in and returning key names who could contribute as soon as this fall. Allison Wilson, a transfer from Alabama last summer, placed 49th at the NCAA XC Championships last fall and could very easily be an All-American come November. The Florida women have also added Tia Wilson from England, a rising freshman with an eye-catching 8:57 (3k) PR.
And yet, despite those decent scoring pieces, it was clear that the Florida women had a ton of work to do to rebuild their scoring base. That, of course, is why adding Hilda Olemomoi is such a massive recruiting win for the Gators. By adding a superstar low-stick to this squad, there is now a core of talented contributors who can truly impact this program in the fall.
But for as good as Olemomoi and her projected supporting cast is, greater reinforcements will be needed for the Florida women to return as top-10 threats on the grass, nationally. As it stands right now, Olemomoi is their only sure-thing All-American for this fall (assuming that she's healthy and available).
We then turn our attention to Alabama, a team that had a future that was far more promising than some people realize prior to Hilda Olemomoi's departure. In fact, one coach I spoke to even went as far to say that the Crimson Tide women would have been the favorites for the cross country national team title this fall.
"Like, huge favorites." they said, specifically.
At first glance, that kind of assertion admittedly sounds a bit aggressive. And in some respects, describing this team as "huge" title favorites most certainly is an aggressive take. But if you're able to look past the limited depth, then the math (sorta) checks out in Alabama's favor, at least to be favorites for the podium.
Based on some very rough estimates, let's suppose that Doris Lemngole and Hilda Olemomoi went 1-2 at the 2024 NCAA XC Championships (which is a very realistic possibility). Let's also assume that Brenda Tuwei, a 15:51 (5k) runner who has also run 31:20 (10k) on the roads, places 35th at that same meet while Joy Gill replicates her 53rd place finish from last year's national meet.
If you match those finishes to the respective team scores of last year's NCAA XC Championships, then the Crimson Tide women would be scoring 68 points through four runners. Their fifth runner could finish 72nd place overall en route to 54 team points (based on last year's results). That would give Alabama a team score of 122 points, one point better than last year's national title winner, NC State.
Now, admittedly, finding a fifth woman who can place among the top-80 of the cross country national meet this fall will not be easy. Thankfully, the reinforcements for this year's Crimson Tide team are expected to be much better this year than they have been in the past.
However, Hilda Olemomoi is no longer in Tuscaloosa, leaving a chasm-like scoring gap for the Alabama coaching staff to fill. That's a brutal loss for a team that seemingly had an outside shot at the national title and were potentially once viewed as favorites for the podium come November.
And while Olemomoi does stop some of the lost scoring that Florida's roster has been inflicted with, her introduction to the Gators' roster alone would not have made nearly as much of an impact on their team as it would have for the current structure of Alabama's squad.
Final Verdict: Bigger Loss for Alabama
Reader Vote: Hilda Olemomoi - Bigger Gain for Florida? Or Bigger Loss for Alabama?
Bigger Gain for Florida
Bigger Loss for Alabama
About Even
Amina Maatoug: Bigger Gain for Washington? Or Bigger Loss for Duke?
For a moment, it looked like Amina Maatoug was going to be the single-most valuable distance talent in the transfer portal later this year (until Hilda Olemomoi entered the portal). With elite range and multiple All-American honors to her name, the now-former Duke runner was going to make a massive splash wherever she ended up.
Sure enough, that's largely what happened as Maatoug was signed to the University of Washington a few weeks ago.
Let's begin with Duke, the program that first introduced Maatoug to the NCAA.
The Blue Devils are admittedly going through a distance roster rebuild at the moment...and it's seemingly going to be a VERY big rebuild.
Not only did Coach Angela Reckart leave the program at the end of the outdoor track season, but six of Duke's top-seven women from their 2024 Southeast regional meet lineup are now gone. And yes, Maatoug was one of those six departees.
Coach Kevin Jermyn is seemingly a great hire as Duke's next head distance coach. It also doesn't hurt that he brought in two key transfers from Elon. Even so, when it comes to team implications, having Amina Maatoug stay in Durham, North Carolina would not have necessarily sent the Blue Devils into a dramatically better direction.
For the most part, this ACC-based program would have still needed a stronger scoring presence to even flirt with a national qualifying bid as a team on the grass this fall. Although, it is fair to point out that Duke has become a major force within the ACC as a track and field team and the lost points often provided by Maatoug will need to be made up elsewhere.
But Washington? Well, their story is much more different.
Last year, the Huskies had a strong fall season, upsetting Stanford for the PAC-12 team title in cross country before placing a very admirable 8th place at the NCAA XC Championships. However, arguably more importantly, TFRRS suggests that six of Washington's top-seven women from last year's cross country team are set to return, including their entire top-four. Among those returnees are three women who finished within the top-60 at the national meet.
Based on just that information alone, you can already begin to see a path where the Seattle-based women are contending for a podium spot later this fall. And assuming Maatoug is back in top form by November, then the Huskies should have an elite low-stick star with some of the most stable support scoring of any team in the country.
Of course, what truly puts this team over the top is the fact that Maeve Stiles (via Penn) and Samantha Tran (via Michigan) are both joining Washington later this fall. Both of those incoming graduate transfers have finished among the top-100 of the NCAA XC Championships before.
Sure, both Tran and Stiles were likely going to make positive impacts on their team this fall regardless of whether or not Maatoug signed with Washington. But now, Maatoug offers an outstanding amount of firepower to prop up an experienced team with one of the highest floors in the country.
And it's truly because of Maatoug that we would argue that Washington is now a podium favorite the fall of 2024.
Final Verdict: Bigger Gain for Washington
Reader Vote: Amina Maatoug - Bigger Gain for Washington? Or Bigger Loss for Duke?
Bigger Gain for Washington
Bigger Loss for Duke
About Even
Simon Kelati: Bigger Gain for Tennessee? Or Bigger Loss for Western Colorado?
There has never been any question about Simon Kelati's impact as a national-caliber star at the Division Two level. During his time with Western Colorado, Kelati racked up a total of nine D2 All-American honors.
However, it also seems fair to say that Kelati reached a new tier of fitness this past year, appearing to be in far greater control of his fitness than ever before. The Mountaineer star snagged silver at the NCAA D2 XC Championships last fall and went on to secure gold at the NCAA D2 Indoor Championships over 3000 meters in March.
He capped his time at Western Colorado with marks of 7:57 (3k) and 13:34 (5k). He also ran 3:43 for 1500 meters after an altitude conversion.
The Volunteers have evolved into a consistent national qualifying cross country team in recent years under the direction of Coach Sean Carlson. However, the recent departure of Yaseen Abdalla to the transfer portal has left this team looking for more firepower and lead scoring going into 2024.
It also doesn't help that last year's supporting cast of Brandon Olden, Jacob Lewis and Eli Nahom are all now out of cross country eligibility, per TFRRS.
Would Tennessee still have made the NCAA XC Championships this fall with Kelati? Sure, it certainly would have been possible. Both Gabe Sanchez and Dean Casey look like great lead scorers and the Vols' roster is generally deep enough where they can find a few good enough contributors to stay competitive.
It also doesn't hurt Tennessee that the South region may be getting easier to navigate out of now that Coach Bob Braman is out of Florida State and his top low-stick, David Mullarkey, is in the transfer portal.
But by adding Kelati to the mix, the likelihood of the Tennessee men returning back to the national meet seems substantially higher. The now-former D2 star doesn't necessarily need to be a D1 All-American to have an impact in Rocky Top later this fall. Instead, if he can simply match the performances that we're expecting to see from Sanchez and Casey, then Tennessee should be able to keep themselves among the top-25 of The Stride Report's rankings.
So...what about Western Colorado?
The Division Two landscape among men's cross country teams is slowly beginning to shift. Teams such as Wingate, West Texas A&M and East Central are beginning to threaten the conventional powers out of the RMAC (which includes Western Colorado) as well as GLIAC powerhouse, Grand Valley State.
And yet, despite that, the Mountaineer men looked like they were going to be podium favorites later this fall had Kelati stayed with the team.
Last year, Western Colorado finished 5th place overall (among men's teams) at the NCAA D2 XC Championships. If Kelati had opted not to transfer, then the Mountaineers would have returned their entire top-five, including three All-Americans. Their only loss would have been their sixth man who finished in 86th place at last year's national meet.
Sure, a podium spot would not have necessarily been guaranteed for Western Colorado even if Kelati opted to stay. However, they certainly would have been favored to finish among the top-four in November with him leading their group. But now, without Kelati, the men of Gunnison, Colorado will need to find greater firepower to pair with Tyler Nord if they want to remain as podium favorites.
And while it is certainly still possible for WCU to become a podium team without Kelati, accomplishing that goal would have been much easier with an individual national title contender on their roster.
Final Verdict: Bigger Loss for Western Colorado
Reader Vote: Simon Kelati - Bigger Gain for Tennessee? Or Bigger Loss for Western Colorado?
Bigger Gain for Tennessee
Bigger Loss for Western Colorado
About Even
