Future Five Q's

1. Will anyone win two indoor national titles in the distance events?

As I mentioned in my last article on Cheserek, the NCAA has been without a superstar who is consistently the undeniable favorite in multiple events. The upcoming NCAA Indoor Championships in March is no exception to this trend.

Sure, there are favorites in each event, but there is no overwhelming favorite. In other words, I don’t think there is any guarantee that an individual will walk away with two titles in this year’s championship. The depth in the mile, 3000, and 5000 will make it hard for someone who isn’t fresh to earn a second title (if we exclude the DMR).

That said, I believe Grant Fisher has the best chance to pick up where Cheserek left off. Fisher, like King Ches, has the potent blend of speed, smarts, and endurance. Whether the pace is hot from the gun or a tactical sit-and-kick, Fisher should feel confident about his chances. A 5k and 3k double is certainly doable. Even a 3k/mile double is in the cards for Fisher, but he will have a lot of competition in each of those races...

Morgan McDonald has already proven that he can beat Fisher, and he will certainly be the one to watch in the 5k when you consider his 13:15 PR. In the 3k, Edwin Kurgat, Joe Klecker, Cameron Griffith, and McDonald will all make life difficult for Fisher. The amount of top runners Fisher will have to beat really emphasizes how deep the NCAA is at the moment.

2. What event will Oliver Hoare run at Nationals?

The reigning 1500 meter champion may be one of the most talented milers in the nation, but his endurance is incredibly underrated. Hoare finished 8th in the indoor 3k last year and went on to have the best cross country season of his career to give Wisconsin a potent one-two punch alongside Morgan McDonald.

Given his previous success, it seems obvious that Hoare should run the mile. After all, he won the outdoor equivalent only six months ago.

But here’s the thing…

Hoare just finished 19th at the Cross Country National Championships, beating many 5k and 10k specialists to validate his talent in the longer distances. He also owns a 7:51 PR in the 3k which puts him in elite company. Another factor in Hoare’s favor is how championship races are normally run. Rarely do we see PR’s at an indoor championship due to the tactical nature of these races. With a 3:37 PR in the 1500, Hoare will have the best speed of anyone in the 3k field which is something he might not be able to say in the mile.

One problem though…

Although his finishing kick should give him an edge against almost anyone in the 3k field, he would have to face stronger competition with Fisher, McDonald, and Kurgat in the mix. Even though I believe Hoare has a great shot of winning the 3k, I think his best chance of bringing home a title will be in the mile where he will run against a somewhat lighter field (although it will still be no easy task).

Maybe Hoare will surprise us and run both the 3k and the mile. Heck, maybe we even see him in the DMR. Still, no matter what race he is in, he will be one of the favorites.

3. Which team will score the most distance points at the Indoor National Championships?

*We are excluding DMR points and looking strictly at individual points*

I think the clear favorite for earning the most distance points is Wisconsin. The Badgers were the only team to have two runners picked in the first round of our Indoor Fantasy Draft. Morgan McDonald was picked first and Oliver Hoare was selected third. Both of these guys are favorites in their respective events. McDonald, who is coming off of his cross country national title, looks to continue his domination in the 5k and perhaps in the 3k as well. Hoare, after the best cross season of his career, could win the mile or the 3k as mentioned above. When you look at all of their options, 15 points from this duo would be a very conservative estimate.

Another team to watch is Stanford almost entirely because of Grant Fisher. Fisher is a favorite in the 3k and 5k and, if he competes in both, he could score almost as many points as the Wisconsin duo. Alex Ostberg and Alek Parsons gives Stanford other scoring options as well.

Campbell, on the strength of Amon Kemboi and Lawrence Kipkoech, could also accumulate a good amount of points in the 3k and 5k. Of course, the Colorado duo of Joe Klecker and John Dressel could also post some serious points. If others like Eduardo Herrera and Ryan Forsyth are able to join them in the open events at Nationals, then the Buffaloes will have plenty of potential for a high score.

Oregon may have lost multiple key scorers this past summer, but they are still incredibly deep. They have four men who can run under 4 minutes in the mile (if you include James West's 3:37 1500) and that could be enough to get themselves a top team spot at Nationals.

4. Who will be the first-ever title winners?

One of the reasons why I think Hoare should run the mile is because there is so much parity in the event. The mile field has numerous names who have never won an NCAA title during indoors, outdoors, or cross country and that could favor the Wisconsin ace. However, if Hoare decides to run the 3k, then the field will almost definitely be won by a first-time champ. For Kasey Knevelbaard, Cole Rockhold, Carlos Villarreal, Mick Stanovsek, and the rest of the top milers, this might be their best chance to earn their first NCAA title.

The 800 should also give plenty of men the chance to win their first title as none of the top contenders have ever won an NCAA title. Will it be Robert Heppenstall who has knocked on the door for three years? Joe White who is coming back from redshirting? Sophomore Marco Arop? How about Bryce Hoppell from Kansas who ran well very last winter during the regular season and had a phenomenal race at the outdoor national meet? The 800 will be fascinating to watch as we await to see who finally breaks through and dons NCAA gold for the first time ever.

5. Which freshman will score the most points at Nationals?

*We are including redshirt freshmen into this conversation*

It is rare to see any freshman score points during indoors because the bar is set so high just to qualify for the National Championship. From the 800 to the 5k, there were only four freshman to qualify for last year’s Indoor Nationals and only one that scored (Reed Brown, who squeaked out one point for the Ducks). To score as a freshman, or even qualify for Nationals, puts you in good company for the rest of your career. In fact, all of the freshmen who qualified last year, Brown, Johnathan Davis, Sam Worley, and Marco Arop, were all drafted in The Stride Report’s Indoor Fantasy Draft. With that said, I think this year’s freshmen class is talented enough to compete better than last year’s group.

First up is James Sugira from Eastern Kentucky. The Colonel was very impressive in his first cross country season, winning multiple races before an All-American performance at Nationals. He’s run 3:44 in the 1500 and 13:46 in the 5k (a PR that could qualify him for Nationals this winter). If any freshman scores at Nationals, then it will be Sugira who finished 7th in the 5k at the Commonwealth Games last year.

My next best bet to score at NCAA's is Brodey Hasty. The true freshman from Northern Arizona ran 14:42 right after cross country season ended at 5000 feet of elevation. His time converts to a 14:10, and he beat fellow teammates Luis Grijalva and Peter Lomong in the process. In high school, Hasty nearly broke thee 4 minute barrier in the mile multiple times and ran 8:00 in the 3k. I would be surprised if he didn’t run well enough to qualify for Nationals in any event this season.

While I’m confident that Hasty will earn a spot at Nationals, I don’t feel great about penciling him into a top eight position. In his first collegiate season of competition, it will be very difficult for the inexperienced Hasty to score in the 5k or 3k which is stacked with talented veterans.

Another name to watch is Danny Kilrea. The Notre Dame youngster had a very impressive freshman cross country season, finishing as an All-American. While his high school track times don’t align with the times that Hasty and Sugira have run, I think Kilrea’s performances in the fall show how much he has improved since high school. I think he will be in contention for one of the 3k or 5k qualifying spots.

Freshmen to watch: George Kusche, Chad Johnson, Dustin Horter, Dylan Jacobs.

As always, if I missed anyone or you have different answers, then let me know! Feel free to tweet or email any big questions you have going into the indoor season at weisel15238@gmail.com!

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