Five Things To Watch: 2022 RMAC XC Championships

John Cusick
Nov 4, 2022
15 min read

Written by John Cusick, additional commentary and edits by Garrett Zatlin

The Rocky Mountain Athletic Conference is, without question, the single greatest conference in Division Two when it comes distance running and, more specifically, cross country. This weekend, many of the nation's highest-ranked programs will toe the line in a clash that, in many ways, could arguably be seen as a national meet preview.

Here are a few of the main headlines and "things to watch" for Saturday's powerhouse battle...

How Many Points Will The Colorado Mines Men Score?

And How Close Will Adams State Get?

If you’re reading this, I am asking you to consider how many points you think that the Colorado Mines men might score this weekend in Durango, Colorado.

Alright, do you have a number?

Let’s see if it compares to what I have in mind.

I believe that the Orediggers might score 30 points or less this weekend. I’m not going to come out and state that a sub-30 point score is definitely what they are going to do, but I’ll go as far as saying that if it happened, I would not be shocked.

This team is elite from their first runner to their seventh runner.

I understand that this group has only truly raced once this season, but their performance at D2 Pre-Nationals somehow exceeded our already high expectations -- by a lot. They placed six men inside the top-10 en route to a 19-point team victory.

The Orediggers also put four athletes inside the top-five of that race and they all finished before the next-best RMAC athlete in Simon Kelati (who finished 6th). On top of that, those six athletes all crossed the line before Western Colorado even had their second scorer finish the race.

And let's not forget, the Western Colorado men currently the last team listed inside our top-10 rankings!

The Orediggers dismantled everyone that they faced that weekend. Of course, we should expect much more pushback when we head into the RMAC XC Championships this weekend as they will face Adams State (TSR #2), our preseason favorite.

Colorado Mines will also face Colorado Christian (TSR #8), Western Colorado (TSR #10) and UC-Colorado Springs. However, it's worth noting that Colorado Christian is rumored not to be racing their top squad, so we may have to revisit their team when the regional meets come around.

I’ll be the first to tell you that Adams State is a very good team. And even that may be a significant understatement. I thought they were good enough to be our top team coming into the preseason and I thought the same up until Pre-Nationals.

And to be clear, there is a very realistic scenario where they win gold on Saturday. While Colorado Mines may be favored just because we feel more confident about their depth, the Grizzlies might have just as much firepower.

Adams State is a really strong team as they proved at the Highlander Invitational. Awet Beraki (TSR #3) should challenge for the individual title this weekend, leaving it up to the rest of his team to try and combat the rest of the Orediggers who have historically run well as a pack.

Dillon Powell (TSR #1), Beraki and Afewerki Zeru (TSR #4) are the three athletes who I can almost guarantee will finish 1-2-3 in some order. If I had to choose right now, I’d go with Powell taking home the individual title, but that’s just one man's opinion.

Let's suppose that the Powell-Beraki-Zeri trio do take the top-three spots in this meet. That leaves us with seven spots inside the top-10 to fill. Can the Orediggers fit five more athletes inside the top-10?

Well, sure, it’s at least feasible.

Inside our top-25 rankings, we have 11 athletes from the RMAC currently list. We’ve already mentioned the top-three, leaving us with eight athletes to fill seven spots. We can also rule out Josh Pierantoni (TSR #13) as he is not rumored to be racing on Saturday, leaving our number of ranked options at seven athletes.

Colorado Mines stars Loic Scomparin (TSR #6) and Duncan Fuehne (TSR #7) are both expected to finish in this top-10 this weekend, although Adams State standouts Cameron Allan (TSR #17) and Clement Duigou (TSR #18) are likely in the same conversation.

That now leaves three more top-10 spots for Andrew Amor (TSR #22), Luke Julian (TSR #23) and Simon Kelati (TSR #24) to fill.

Powell, Scomparin, Fuehne and Julian are all Orediggers who have already shown they can finish in front of Kelati in a competitive field. Fellow Mines teammates Steven Goldy and Chris Cathcart were behind Kelati at Pre-Nationals in 8th and 9th place, respectively, but there's no guarantee that it will happen again.

But then again, who’s to say that Colorado Mines will actually put six men inside the top-10 this weekend? If I were a betting man, I’d say that the odds of that happening are probably a bit better than you’d expect them to be upon an initial review.

Colorado Mines may be the favorites over Adams State on paper, but that's probably because we haven't seen the Grizzlies actually face any high-end competition this season despite what the Highlander Invitational offered.

In theory, Beraki, Allan and Duigou are all capable of matching the firepower from the Orediggers. And truthfully, whose to say that the rest of this lineup is that much further behind Colorado Mines' supporting cast if we haven't really had a great race to gauge the Grizzlies' roster as a whole?

In fact, I would argue that Adams State may actually have more options for their varsity lineup than Colorado Mines does based on our preseason research. Of course, what kind of pack and scoring those backend runners can offer is the biggest uncertainty.

Can The Colorado Mines Women Legitimately Test The Adams State Women?

This section goes follows the same kind of questioning that we had for the Colorado Mines men, but not quite to the same extreme.

The Adams State women are a very good team and are currently ranked as our best team in the country. They dominated the Highlander Invitational in their only “true” meet of the season. They scored 30 points and were 40 points better than the 2nd place team.

Brianna Robles (TSR #1) and Precious Robinson (TSR #13) were the top-two runners for the Grizzlies in California and will look to replicate that firepower at the RMAC XC Championships this weekend. Add in Emily Schoellkopf (TSR #16), Franziska Althaus (TSR #18) and Nicole Lawrence (TSR #23) and that gives us five Grizzlies in our top-25 rankings who we have seen race this season.

That’s important because we have Stephanie Cotter listed at TSR #5...for now.

We’ve mentioned before that in previous seasons with Adams State, Cotter has debuted at her conference meet. Is that something that we could see on Saturday? If she does indeed debut, then things favor the Grizzlies quite heavily...although they are already the heavy favorites even without her.

But if Cotter doesn't run, then that leaves the door open (just a crack) for Colorado Mines who has an elite quartet of Zoe Baker (TSR #7), Clare Peters (TSR #14), Jenna Ramsey (TSR #15) and Molly Maksin (TSR #18). If all of those women are at their best, they could play a part in potentially taking down Adams State.

The Grizzlies are the team to beat on the women’s side solely due to their depth, experience and proven firepower...but they will be tested. The Orediggers have four truly elite distance runners who can all finish inside the top-10 of this meet if everyone has a perfect day.

Are the Orediggers actually going to do that? I have no idea, but it feels like their chances of doing that are still lower than that of the Grizzlies, wouldn’t you say?

Adams State's Brianna Robles is the favorite for the individual RMAC crown as she looks to win back-to-back titles. Her teammate, Precious Robinson, was just nine seconds back of her at the Highlander Invitational, forcing us to reevaluate just how good she might be.

If Robinson (or any other Adams State runner) is a top-three talent inside the RMAC, then I'm not sure how you can argue against the Grizzlies taking home the team title.

Schoellkopf has settled into a very strong third scoring option for the Grizzlies in her first real season of racing cross country for Adams State. Althaus, meanwhile, transferred into this program last year and has made an immediate impact. She’s continuing to make that impact here in 2022 and her past history suggests that she may have even more scoring potency to offer.

If those two women race to their potential, then the Grizzlies may have a quartet that is stronger than four of the Orediggers' top runners, effectively making this a runaway race for Adams State.

Fellow Grizzlies Morgan Hykes and Maggie McCleskey also finished in front of Nicole Lawrence at the Highlander Invitational earlier this season, making us wonder where that leaves Lawrence in the grand scheme of things.

We’d like to believe that her most recent result was just a blip on the radar, but we can’t say for certain. We can, however, say that if Lawrence is indeed on the outside-looking-in of this varsity lineup or scoring group, then the Grizzlies should still be fine with Hykes or McCleskey emerging as backend runners.

What are the chances of the Grizzlies placing five women inside the top-10 this weekend? Honestly, they're pretty high given how well they did last year at this meet. Adams State placed five women inside the top-13 en route to 40 points and a 31-point margin of victory at last year’s RMAC XC Championships.

The competition will likely be tougher this year given the rise of Colorado Mines, but I am hard-pressed to say that they will beat the Grizzlies. I’ll certainly eat my words if the Orediggers do come out on top, but as of right now, I will be taking the Grizzlies to secure gold.

Robles vs Doucette vs Baker

Both the men's and women's races are going to be a thrill!

Let's start with the women’s side where we will see 11 athletes ranked inside our top-25 face-off. Of that group, Brianna Robles (TSR #1), Katie Doucette (TSR #4) and Zoe Baker (TSR #7) will be headlining the race.

We mentioned earlier that Robles will be the individual title favorite coming into this race and no one should be shocked by that suggestion. In her lone invitational race, she finished 3rd at the Highlander Invitational and led this Grizzlies team to a strong showing. She was the fastest Division Two athlete in that field and broke 20:00 for the first time in career over a 6k course.

We know how good Robles can be. That was shown by her upstart cross country season last fall which led to her incredibly strong winter and spring campaigns on the track.

At the same time, seeing more from Robles this season would have been nice, but we can only ask for so much. While her 3rd place finish at the Highlander Invitational looks nice, it wasn’t the same dominant performance that we at The Stride Report thought it would be.

And yet, regardless of what you think about Robles' season so far, we have to acknowledge that she has beaten every major name in this field as recently as the NCAA Outdoor Championships, effectively making her the favorite. She has run away from athletes in this field in multiple competitive settings, leading her to be ranked as our top runner heading into this weekend.

But the last time Robles lost to someone who is expected to toe the line this weekend?

That’d be Katie Doucette of Western Colorado. Robles lost to Doucette at the NCAA Indoor Championships in the 3000 meters. It was close, but it was still a loss.

Doucette has notched two 2nd place finishes and a victory in her three meets this season. One of those 2nd places came from Kira MacGill of Colorado Mesa at a dual meet which, truthfully, was the result of Doucette missing the finishing chute. The other loss was at D2 Pre-Nationals where she lost to Naomi Bailey of Alaska-Fairbanks.

Some of the questions that we have about Doucette leading into this weekend will likely be answered after the results are tallied on Saturday.

Doucette’s stock was still high when she made the trip to Seattle for the Pre-Nationals race. However, the upset by Bailey has thrown some water on the fire when thinking about her individual title chances and her ability to upset Robles.

Even so, Doucette is incredibly talented and made some rapid improvement dating back to last year’s cross country season. This will be her second true test this season, but this time, it will be against opponents who she is much more familiar with.

I think we will see Doucette push Robles for most of this race and if things break right, then maybe she could walk away as the RMAC champion. Of course, she’ll have to go through more than Robles for that to happen.

Zoe Baker and Clare Peters were both behind Doucette at Pre-Nationals earlier this season. Given that Baker was just one second back and Peters was only four seconds of Doucette, we think both of those women should still be in the individual title conversation.

Baker has proven to be incredibly consistent for the Orediggers over her career. She was 4th at the RMAC XC Championships last fall and has improved considerably. The biggest concern for her is her kick at the end of a race. There’s no doubt in my mind that she can hang with the top group, but the question that remains is if she can finish with them.

Meanwhile, Peters’ biggest concern is her lack of competitive, high-level racing. She’s come straight from the NC State club team and while her performance at Pre-Nationals was impressive, it was just one race. I don’t think Peters will take home the title, but I do think that she’ll be toward the front for the majority of this race.

The last name who I want to highlight is Layla Almasri (TSR #11). Almasri took a big leap in her cross country fitness last fall and carried that to the oval. However, we’ve only seen her race once this season which was at the Louisville Classic where she finished 17th.

In that race, she was the fourth Division Two athlete to cross the line in a mostly Division One field. Admittedly, she’s probably the furthest away from winning the title of all of the women who I’ve mentioned. However, Almasri was the only athlete to try and run with Robles last year and on paper, her resume is the most well-rounded, theoretically leaving her the most prepared for whatever kind of race we see.

Almasri's improved fitness level should let her run with this top group for most of this race. If things go her way, then she’ll be around at the end with enough of a kick to secure a victory.

Is it a long shot? Sure.

But is it plausible? Absolutely.

Other names who need to be mentioned are Kira MacGill (Colorado Mesa), Jenna Ramsey (Colorado Mines), Precious Robinson (Adams State) and Stephanie Cotter (Adams State).

MacGill has had a strong season thus far and proved that she is more than capable of being nationally competitive at D2 Pre-Nationals.

Meanwhile, Ramsey won the Roadrunners Invitational over her teammates Baker and Maksin and should be considered a threat if she toes the line.

Robinson was behind Robles at the Highlander Invitational by nine seconds and should be considered a long-odds threat.

Cotter’s resume speaks for itself. If she does debut, then she will be a threat to the title.

Powell vs Beraki vs Zeru

This race has been alluded to already, so we don’t have to go super in-depth. but..holy cow. How much fun is this going to be?

You have three athletes who all seemingly run the same. Once the gun goes off, it becomes suicide pace and it comes down to who can hurt the most.

We’ve seen what Dillon Powell can do on the biggest stages in the NCAA. He’s a collegiate record holder in the indoor 5000 meters and the reigning 10k national champion on the track. He also just laid down one of the most dominant performances of the season so far at D2 Pre-Nationals. Oh, and he cemented himself as the favorite for the individual title in December until proven otherwise.

There will always be a little concern about whether Powell races too aggressively, but lessons have been learned over the course of 365 days and we should see an even better race than we did on the track.

Powell will be looking to win his second-straight RMAC crown on the grass. He’ll be at the front pushing the pace from the gun, but we have to question who will still be with him when he crosses the finish line.

In our eyes, Awet Beraki and Afewerki Zeru will be the main challengers to Powell.

Beraki most recently won the Highlander Invitational by 22 seconds and looks to be in incredible shape. During the outdoor national meet, we saw Beraki covering moves and running with the leaders, which led to him earning a silver medal...twice!

I expect him to do the same thing when he faces off against Powell and Zeru.

This Adams State star is not afraid to mix it up. Knowing that Powell will be trying to push the pace from the gun can also work to his advantage if played correctly.

As for Zeru, he has been one of the best competitive racers over the last year, something that he has proven with his runner-up finishes to Powell at the RMAC XC Championships and the South Central regional meet last year. Zeru showed off his elite in-race navigation skills at the outdoor national meet last spring after finishing 3rd in the 10,000 meters only to follow that up with his first NCAA title in the 5000 meters.

Zeru won the Lucian Rosa Invitational earlier this season by nine seconds over another ranked runner in Ransom Allen. If he plays his cards right, then Zeru might be able to wait out both Powell and Beraki to take home the RAMC title this weekend.

Other names expected to be towards the front pack include: Simon Kelati, Luke Julian, Loic Scomparin, Duncan Fuehne, Cameron Allan, Clement Duigou, Tony Torres and Michael Grabowski.

That’s too many names for me to hit a one-liner about, but I’d classify them all in a tier below the other three guys who we just mentioned. It would not be a shock to see one of these eight men placing inside the top-five, but I’m not ready to say they can run at the same level unless someone is purposefully slowing this race down.

A Big Moment For The UCCS & Western Colorado Squads

Okay, I know that we are getting a little long-winded here, so I’ll try and keep this quick.

This is a huge moment in the season for both the men’s and women’s teams of UC-Colorado Springs and Western Colorado.

I’ll start with the men because that features Western Colorado (TSR #10) and a “Just Missed” team in UC-Colorado Springs. Both of the women’s teams are ranked.

We just saw the Western Colorado men at D2 Pre-Nationals which ultimately put them in our final top-10 spot in our last rankings update.

Simon Kelati had a breakout race and made his name known, nationally, on the grass. Teammate Michael Grabowski has picked up where he left off last fall and appears to be a really good second scorer for the Mountaineers.

However, the crucial piece is currently Albert Hesse. The 2019 All-American on the grass hasn’t quite looked the same as he did three years ago. And that, of course, makes sense given that it was three years ago.

However, a 30th place finish at D2 Pre-Nationals doesn't instill much confidence. Regardless of whether or not that's just rust, he’ll need to look right this weekend for us to have any belief that the Mountaineers are more than just a fringe top-10 team when December rolls around.

Meanwhile, the Mountain Lions are an interesting team. They have a low-stick superstar in Afewerki Zeru, but the scoring options feel admittedly limited after him. Evan Graff is a strong secondary scorer for UCCS, but that’s all that we can truly say about this team right now.

We’d like to see Marcus Graham and Gavin Harden take a step forward in a competitive race (like the one that they'll toe the line for this weekend) to give us a confidence boost about this team heading into the regional and national meet.

That duo finished 7th and 14th, respectively, at the Lucian Rosa Invitational earlier this season, but that field was less competitive than the one that they'll be seeing this weekend.

This year's UC-Colorado Springs squad can be competitive in a setting of 10 teams, that much we know. But will they be competitive in a field of 30 teams? We’re not ready to say that yet, but this weekend will help give us some clarity.

On the women’s side, the Mountain Lions come in as our TSR #4 team while the Mountaineers are currently listed at TSR #7.

Starting with UCCS, this weekend is incredibly important. Layla Almasri is back for her final year and is proving to be the necessary low-stick for a nationally competitive team. Not only that, but Kate Hedlund and Anna Fauske have both taken huge steps forward this fall, giving this team more depth than they had a year ago.

However, we'll be curious to see how Riley McGrath performs this weekend.

The breakout miler on the track finished as the fourth scorer for the Mountain Lions at the Louisville Classic which, admittedly, wasn't what we were expecting from. Now, admittedly, that was just one race and we shouldn’t make huge conclusions about what might happen his weekend based off of just one performance.

However, we can certainly say that the Mountain Lions will look to her to run her best.

Because if McGrath does run her best, then this is arguably a top-three team in the country. It just so happens that the other two teams who are better than the Mountain Lions also compete in the RMAC.

As for Western Colorado, we are concerned about their third and fourth runners. Katie Doucette and Allison Beasley have been the leaders of this team dating back to last season. And sure enough, they showed that they are once again up for the task in 2022. At D2 Pre-Nationals, they finished inside the top-10 with Doucette placing 2nd and Beasley 9th.

Meanwhile, Leah Taylor and Gretchen Slattum placed 13th and 23rd, respectively, showing us a ton of promise for this Mountaineers team moving forward. However, their fifth scorer in that race finished 45th overall, a fairly significant scoring drop-off that admittedly limits the ceiling of this team.

To be clear, the Mountaineers will still be plenty competitive on Saturday with that lineup structure. However, if they want to get the edge on some top-ranked conference rivals, then they'll need a more compact scoring group.