First Thoughts: Wiley, Maatoug & Ramsden Post Monster Miles, Hendrick & Thomas Battle, Fay Goes 7:43

Click here to read First Thoughts (Part One)

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Addy Wiley & Amina Maatoug Run 4:29 Mile Conversions in Thrilling Battle at Camel City

In our Camel City Invitational preview, a question was posed about which top-tier distance star in the women's mile -- Amaris Tyynismaa, Sam Bush or Amina Maatoug -- was most likely to emerge with the win this past Saturday.

Both Scotty and myself said that Tyynismaa (who was racing unattached) was our pick to emerge with the victory. In our eyes, she was the most proven at the distance and already made an improvement over 3000 meters in December.

But Maura was adamant that Maatoug could be a major problem for her competitors this past weekend. And although I echoed her sentiments, I still chose the recent Alabama-to-NC State transfer who I deemed as the "safer" pick.

Of course, as the race progressed, it was clear that Maatoug was the going to be the clear-cut strongest distance talent of that aforementioned trio. The Duke superstar from the Netherlands battled with Addy Wiley -- a former high school megastar who ran a 4:26 (1600) national record last spring -- throughout the entire race.

Both women dropped a handful of the most established distance talents around the NCAA, each making wildly impressive surges that would oftentimes be enough to shake All-American-caliber runners.

And yet, in the end, it was Wiley's final surge that was enough to fend off Maatoug, 4:32.15 to 4:32.54. And yes, those times are unconverted. When factoring in the flat-track conversions, Wiley's time now becomes 4:29.49 while Maatoug's mark moves to 4:29.87.

When it comes Addy Wiley, it's hard not to be impressed. Yes, she ran a 4:26 mark for 1600 meters as a high schooler, but that was in a time trial-type scenario (thanks to a pacer) and it was also on an outdoor track.

This past weekend certainly had the aim of running fast, but it was far more tactical and it was also on an always-slower 200 meter indoor track -- a flat-track, nonetheless.

As we just saw, Maatoug looks like she's going to be a massive problem for her NCAA competitors. She may be the most versatile distance runner at the collegiate level right now and she has also proven to be tactically sound.

For Wiley to respond to each of Maatoug's surges and then simply outrun this Dutch distance ace en route to a new NAIA mile record is wildly impressive. At the same time, I also can't help but wonder how long Wiley will realistically hang around at the NAIA level.

The Colorado commit flipped to Huntington U. this past summer in a surprise twist. But given the recent allegations surrounding the Foresters' program (which Wiley has defended her coaches on) and the obvious dearth of competition within the NAIA scene, the idea of turning pro early or moving to the D1 level doesn't seem like an outrageous suggestion.

Because frankly...how much more can Wiley really accomplish if she continues to run like this throughout the rest of this academic year?

As for Maatoug, she was beyond fantastic. Sure, she didn't win, but she made all of the right moves. Her surges were strong and made with conviction. Her blend of speed and stamina was perfectly displayed. She had an obvious understanding of positioning and timing.

And most importantly, she was relentless.

A 4:29 flat-track conversion puts Maatoug in special company. And in a year where we aren't sure if Tuohy will contest the mile at the indoor national meet, we have to ask the question...can this Blue Devil ace win a national title?

When it comes to the other collegiates in this field, there's not a whole lot to report on. NC State's Sam Bush ran a 4:35 conversion while Furman's Megan Marvin and Virginia Tech's Ava Hassebrock ran a pair of 4:36 conversions.

For Bush, that result is hardly a surprise. Those are great efforts for both Marvin and Hassebrock, but there were signs that they could run something that fast coming into this weekend.

Brian Fay Earns 7:43 (3k) Mark at New Balance Grand Prix

Coming into this weekend, we already knew that Brian Fay was one of the more dynamic distance talents in the NCAA. So far this winter, he has already run 13:16 for 5000 meters and 3:52 in the mile.

On paper, the 3000 meters was/is his ideal event.

That's why a time of 7:43, while super strong and impressive, doesn't really surprise us. Based on what this Washington ace has done so far this season, it felt like Fay was plenty capable of running a time like that.

We do have to give credit to Fay for putting himself at the front and at least trying to mix it up among the top pro athletes in the field. But with a little under 400 meters to go, it was clear that this Ireland native just didn't have that next gear to respond to the barrage of kicks that eventually overtook him.

Could a more conservative, measured approach have yielded a faster time for Fay? Maybe, but it probably wouldn't be by more than a second. In this kind of race, I don't mind that Fay experimented with his tactics.

I want to talk more about Fay's performance...but I don't really know if there's anything more to actually say. I'm not sure that we necessarily learned anything new about this Husky veteran this past weekend, although that's not to say that he ran poorly.

All we're left with is one question: Which event(s) will Fay pursue at the NCAA Indoor Championships come March?

Hendrick Narrowly Defeats Thomas in 800 Meters As Both Women Go 2:02 in Boston

Coming into this race, I thought we could see a very tight battle between Kennesaw State's Sarah Hendrick and Washington's Carley Thomas. However, what I didn't expect was for Hendrick to be more conservative and delay her kick while Thomas was the one who opted to run from the front.

Based on past races, those roles are usually reversed.

But on Saturday, Thomas was the one to follow the pacer while Hendrick hung tight on her shoulder. That was essentially the entire race for 750 meters until Hendrick swung off the turn and just barely had enough to get the win over Thomas, 2:02.00 to 2:02.15.

I absolutely loved this race for both women. I thought we saw tremendous growth from both of these All-American-caliber talents.

Hendrick was far less aggressive and far more patient. That turned out to be the smartest move as she ran a new indoor PR and secured a marquee victory. Thomas, meanwhile, didn't seem afraid to put herself ahead of a top-tier half-miler and was seemingly working on utilizing her strength more than her turnover.

Could I be overanalyzing this race? Definitely. At the end of the day, both women followed a pacer, ran fast and were separated by less than two one-hundredths of a second. Maybe this 800 meter battle wasn't as nuanced as I'm making it seem.

Still, these two women didn't exactly race how I thought they would and they still came away with a pair of quick times. That's encouraging progress in my eyes.

Of course, Hendrick and Thomas weren't the only collegiates who found success in this race.

Boston College standout Katherine Mitchell is having a really underappreciated breakout season. After running 4:35 in the mile earlier this season, Mitchell just dropped a big 2:03 PR for 800 meters on Saturday.

And now, as she sits at NCAA #9 in the half-mile with three weeks of competition to go, the Eagle ace may have a legitimate shot at qualifying for the indoor national meet.

Mitchell should remain on your radar. She's proving that she can be nationally competitive in multiple events and she's only getting better each time that she toes the line. But more importantly, I can't help but believe that Coach Pete Watson has had some kind of impact.

Watson's recent introduction at BC's newest Director of Track & Field and Cross Country this past summer has suddenly led to the Eagles boasting a national-caliber runner in Mitchell and a 3:57 miler in Steven Jackson.

I don't believe that's a coincidence, much in the same way that we saw with Cal Poly and Coach Ryan Vanhoy this past fall.

Villanova's Madison Martinez (who was in heat two) and Washington's Marlena Preigh (who was in the top heat) both recorded 2:03 marks. For each of those women, this was a long-time coming...well, maybe longer for Martinez than Preigh.

The Villanova Wildcat has always been a solid and steady half-mile talent. She had run 2:05 for 800 meters multiple times in past seasons and was fairly competitive within the BIG East. But for as solid as Martinez was, she didn't have any times to prove that she could be truly nationally competitive...until Saturday, that is.

A 2:03 mark changes the way we view Martinez. She'll need to build on this performance and establish some consistency, but the middle distance talent has been knocking on the door of a breakout race for quite some time -- and it looks like she finally knocked the door down.

As for Preigh, her breakout season has occurred over the last few months. The middle distance talent has been slowly chipping away at her personal bests this winter and continued to do so in Boston as she went from 2:04 to 2:03.

Preigh is still developing, but she seems to have some serious momentum right now. And if she can continue to build on this result over the next few weeks, then she might have a legitimate shot of qualifying for the NCAA Indoor Championships over 800 meters.

Although, it's still unclear if she would have a role on the Huskies' DMR...

Harvard Trio Goes 3:56-3:57-3:58 in Mile at Boston U.

I'll admit, this has not been a great season for me in terms of predictions.

When I try to be conservative with my predictions, they've been blown out of the water. And when I try to be aggressive with my predictions, they haven't been all that close to the actual results.

But the men's mile at the Boston U. Scarlet & White Invitational this past weekend was probably one of my better sets of predictions that I've made this winter.

The Harvard trio of Graham Blanks, Acer Iverson and Vivien Henz were the headline acts, at least collegiately, heading into Saturday's contest. And if you don't recognize that latter name, it's because he's a 3:38 (1500) guy from Luxembourg who joined the Crimson men this past summer.

It was admittedly hard to have any idea on what these Harvard men could run on Saturday. Blanks and Iverson were obviously talented, but they had very little experience/results in the mile/1500 meters. Henz, meanwhile, was clearly at his best over this distance, but his indoor resume was a bit more modest compared to his outdoor marks.

In the end, I said that Blanks would run 3:57 and emerge as the top collegiate. I then predicted that Henz would run 3:57 while Iverson would finish with a 3:58 mark.

And I was only one second off from that being the case!

Blanks ultimately ended up running a 3:56 mile PR, a promising display of turnover for a guy who was a cross country specialist and a 13:18 (5k) runner. That leaves me highly encouraged about how he could fare in a variety of race scenarios on the national stage.

Because as we all know, the indoor national meet isn't always the same all-out environment that Boston University can be.

As for Henz and Iverson, I don't have much to say here.

Henz's result was super encouraging, but it was also well within his wheelhouse. He probably needs another year of development before he's contending for a qualifying spot to the indoor national meet.

Iverson, meanwhile, produced a nice time as well, although his focus is likely on the 3k and 5k right now. He doesn't appear to be safe for national qualification yet despite running 13:26 (5k) back in December.

Ramsden Makes Huge Statement, Runs 4:30 Mile PR to Emerge as Top Collegiate in Boston

Speaking of Harvard, let's move our conversation to Maia Ramsden, the Ivy League star who has been having a brilliant breakout year across multiple seasons and terrains.

Ramsden first came onto the NCAA scene last year, showing promise in the 1500 meters and the mile. She ran 4:36 (mile) during the winter months and then ran 4:12 for the metric mile during the spring. That latter time came in the 1500 meter finals of the outdoor national meet where she placed 10th overall.

There was a good chance that this Kiwi distance ace was going to make improvements this year...but did anyone think that it would be by this much?

This past fall, the rising Harvard star finished 7th at both the Cowboy Jamboree and Nuttycombe. She later won the Ivy League title and then finished 11th at the NCAA XC Championships.

And if you still weren't convinced that she was/is a top-tier talent, then her recent marks of 8:54 (3k) and 2:43 (1k) this season validated her resume in a way that was indisputable.

Even so, seeing Ramsden run 4:30 in the mile this past weekend is a result that simply takes her to a new tier.

I predicted that the New Zealand native would run 4:32 this weekend, a time that I thought was a nod of respect in terms of what she's capable of. But even that prediction was too slow...and by a fairly notable margin.

But what impressed me the most about Ramsden's result was how she ran her race. In a field full of pro athletes, she started out conservatively and slowly worked her way up. The Harvard talent showcased a tremendous amount of poise and patience that can, at times, be fairly challenging to teach.

Ramsden looks incredibly scary right now. Her resume is becoming increasingly more complete and she hasn't really had a poor race at the NCAA level since...well, maybe never? It depends on how you view some early-season cross country results of hers, but for the most part, Ramsden is as consistent as they come.

And the best part?

She's only getting better.

Chmiel Emerges as Top Collegiate at Camel City via 8:54 (3k) Conversion, Appleton & Brown Run 9:00 Conversions.

I'll be honest, I don't really think we need to spend a ton of time on NC State long distance veteran, Kelsey Chmiel.

This 3k race played out fairly closely to how I thought it would. Former Wolfpack runner Hannah Steelman (now with On) controlled this race at the front and Chmiel would battle with the other pro athletes in this field en route to a fast time.

And...yep, that was exactly what happened.

Steelman won the race in a time of 8:58 while Chmiel settled for 3rd overall with an 8:59 mark. That time was later converted to 8:54 which now sits at NCAA #5 this winter.

I don't really have a whole lot to say about Chmiel. Yes, I did predict her to run an 8:52 (3k) conversion, but an 8:54 mark is well within reason. And for someone who only lost to Katelyn Tuohy and Parker Valby this past fall, a time like that seems about right.

But then we come to North Carolina's Brynn Brown and Virginia's Margot Appleton.

Brown was a high school superstar who very clearly favored the longer distances. And after showing promise during her freshman year, it seems fair to suggest that this Tar Heel sophomore has risen to a new level.

The Texas native was super consistent as a true low-stick for North Carolina throughout this past fall. She also ran 15:43 for 5000 meters back in December and just ran 9:04 (3k) on a flat-track. That latter mark ultimately converted to 9:00.

Brown continues to build on an academic year where she seems like she can be a true three-season star for her team. Her consistency is improving and she's showing the country that she can be the national-caliber talent that her high school resume suggested that she could be.

Tying with Brown in this 3k race was fellow sophomore Margot Appleton. The Virginia youngster was also a strong distance talent in high school and has had a few flashes of brilliance over the last year.

As a freshman, she split 4:33 in a DMR and then ran 4:17 for 1500 meters on the outdoor oval. And while it's clear that Appleton was having success in the mile/1500 meters, her high school resume suggested that she was better in the longer distances.

Sure enough, Appleton had a strong cross country season this past fall, finishing 9th at the ACC XC Championships and then 55th at the NCAA XC Championships. And in her first open race of the 2023 indoor track season, Appleton finished with a converted 3k time of 9:00.

Whether or not Appleton advances to the indoor national meet isn't as important than what her recent rise means for the Virginia women. The Cavaliers just lost an up-and-coming star in Mia Barnett and have since been looking for a new marquee star to give this distance squad an identity.

Maybe Appleton can be the face of this still-budding distance program...

Butler Runs Smart Tactical Race En Route to 2:03 (800) Conversion, Ellsworth Also Runs 2:03 Conversion

The times in the women's 800 meters were truthfully a bit underwhelming. I thought we would see Virginia Tech veteran Lindsey Butler run a time fast enough to potentially dip into the converted 2:00 range. I also thought she would win.

That, however, didn't happen. Butler ran a converted 2:03 for the half-mile distance and finished runner-up overall. But it was her tactics and patience in this race that deserve some kudos.

The Hokie star slowly worked her way up the field, settling in towards the back for the first lap or two. But by the final curve, she was working to potentially nip pro athlete Brenna Detra at the line. No, she didn't catch her, but Butler continued to showcase excellent in-race awareness, a hardly surprising development for a national title winner like herself.

And then there's Alena Ellsworth. The BYU middle distance talent ran 2:05 for 4th place overall. However, she was the second-best collegiate in the field and ended up with a 2:03 conversion of her own.

It's admittedly hard to gauge Ellsworth. So far this winter, she has run 2:06, 2:09 and 2:03 (converted) for 800 meters. She holds a 2:03 personal best from the spring of 2021, but contested the half-mile event only once during the 2022 outdoor track season.

When you look at her resume as a whole, Ellsworth is clearly making progress. And while we don't know always know what to expect from her when she toes the line, we do know better than to doubt a rising BYU talent who has been training under Coach Diljeet Taylor.

Quick Hits

• The Penn State men just had four men run under 1:49 for 800 meters. The combination of Handal Roban, Darius Smallwood, Carter Fitzgerald and Luke Seymour ran 1:47-1:47-1:48-1:48, respectively. Oh, and by the way, three of those four men are freshmen and Smallwood is a sophomore. Is "800U" back?

• Peter Smith just ran a big 1:47 (800) mark behind teammate Cebastian Gentil. For those keeping track at home, the Iowa State men now have four men who have run 1:47 for the half-mile this season. And of those four men, Smith may have the most momentum.

• Gonzaga's Wil Smith joined the sub-four mile club this past weekend as he posted a new personal best of 3:59. That, however, is not the important part. The bigger development is that he upset Montana State star Duncan Hamilton who ran a 3:59 mile time of his own. That's probably one of the bigger upsets that we'll see this season.

• The collegiates in the men's 3k race at Camel City weren't quite as fast as I thought they could be. However, NC State's Ian Harrison (7:49 conv) and Furman's Carson Williams (7:50 conv) deserve some props. They ran smart races and delivered on the budding potential that they have shown over the past year.

• Nice race from Penn State's Hayley Kitching in the 800 meters. She ran 2:04 over that distance, giving the Nittany Lions yet another nationally competitive talent in that event.