First Thoughts: Men's 800 Meters Sees Massive Shakeup + Evie Miller Drops NCAA #2 All-Time Steeple

While the Division One and Division Two ranks were a bit quieter compared to previous weekends (but still making plenty of noise), it was Division Three that turned out to be incredibly eventful, giving us numerous headlines to analyze and discuss.

Below, I answered a few questions that Garrett put together in attempt to properly evaluate all of the top D3 action from this weekend. Let's give this a go...

This past week/weekend, we saw a massive shakeup in the men’s D3 800 meters. Nine of the top-15 times in the 800 meters now stem from this past week. Of those nine, which three are the most impactful and relevant for the postseason?

Ben Kuxmann stormed onto the Division Three scene last year, becoming a strong force in the 800 meters who can bust out times in the 1:50 to 1:51 range like no other.

Running a PR of 1:50.16 at the 29th Annual Meet of Champions got him oh-so-close to the elusive sub-1:50 barrier, but more importantly, he earned a huge win over a big national title favorite -- Mike Jasa.

This performance from Kuxmann was arguably the most impressive of the weekend, showing the D3 world that he can run fast and tactically beat guys like Jasa who is one of the best middle distance runners of this era.

For Jasa, even though he hasn’t been as incredibly dominant this outdoor season as we're used to seeing from him, he still dropped time from his first 800 meter race, going from 1:51.58 to 1:50.81. He's even run 3:55 in the 1500 meters as well.

It's not every year in Division Three where 1:50.81 puts you at NCAA #7 on the national leaderboard. Sure, he hasn't looked quite as sharp since the indoor national meet and we know he can run faster, but Jasa is too experienced and too accomplished to be counted out.

It might have taken awhile, but the indoor national champion in this event, Ryan Wilson of MIT, FINALLY made his outdoor season debut, running 1:50.72 to take a win at his home invitational.

This performance was definitely one of the most impressive season openers in this pool of talent for the men’s 800 meters.

We’ll see how MIT’s schedule allows for deep, competitive invitationals considering Wilson debuted so late into the season, but we’ve already seen from his indoor season, along with this performance, that Wilson can still make incredible performances happen in any kind of race setting.

Now here’s a guy we haven’t talked about in a hot minute: Iddriss Iddriss of Stevenson, the guy who was hunting down Mike Jasa in the final stretches of last year’s outdoor national meet 800 meter final, ultimately placing runner-up.

He made his comeback this spring after not competing during the indoor season, steadily dropping times in his 800 meter performances down to 1:51.13, which is a new PR.

As we saw in 2021, Iddriss knows how to compete in the postseason. Knowing that he’s back competing in Division Three this season at such a high level, Iddriss has inserted himself into the title conversation as a potential dark horse once more in this loaded half-mile event.

Following her recent 2:03 mark for 800 meters, what percent chance would give Esther Seeland to break 2:02 during this collegiate season?

I’d give Seeland a 60% chance of breaking 2:02 this season.

While she may not have the same competition as she did in Emily Pomainville in 2021, Seeland has only been getting faster in each 800 meter race thaat she’s competed in during the outdoor track season.

Starting off at 2:05, then running 2:04, then her 2:03 mark at the Virginia Challenge, this should set up well for her to go for sub-2:02 and a new PR in the final weeks of the season. However, trying to find enough high-level competition who can realistically push her to that level will admittedly be a challenge.

After running a three-second PR en route to a mark of 2:11 for 800 meters, what percent chance would you give Maya Ordonez of being an All-American this spring?

I’ll give Ordonez a 65% chance of earning All-American.

Ordonez is coming off of some great momentum at the UAA Championships, winning the conference title in the 800 meters, along with setting that big PR as well. This mark currently puts her at NCAA #9 in Division Three in this event, meaning that she is in a prime position to qualify for the outdoor national meet.

Ordonez is also lucky enough to have talented teammates to train with at the University of Chicago, with Claudia Harnett ranked at NCAA #7 in Division Three for the 800 meters, along with Maddie Kelly who is ranked NCAA #7 in Division Three for the 1500 meters.

There are many factors that point to Ordonez’s future success throughout this season, although that's assuming that she can maintain this new level of racing and momentum that she has recently developed.

If Ordonez builds on this performance, or even maintains a similar level of success, in the postseason, then her chances of All-American honors are solid, but not guaranteed. After Seeland, the women's 800 meters in Division Three is very crowded with very little disparity.

But given U. Chicago's history, it feels more likely than not that she'll be a top-eight finisher come late May.

What was your biggest takeaway from this weekend in the men’s 1500 meters? Did we learn anything new?

In 2021, it took running 3:49 in the 1500 meters to earn an All-American finish at the NCAA Outdoor Championships in Division Three. During that same season, only seven men ran under 3:50.

In 2022, what we’ve learned is that it might very well take running 3:49 in the 1500 meters just to QUALIFY for the outdoor national meet this year.

In years prior, it wasn't uncommon to see five to 10 men who can break 3:50 in the 1500 meters. However, we’ve already seen 15 guys step up to that task this year! And there's still a month left to go in the season!

Admittedly, there isn't a lone individual race that really caught our attention or surprised us. Jacob Ridderhoff and Liam Galligan both ran 3:49 marks for 1500 meters, but those results were within reason given their past successes.

Still, they contributed to the growing top-end depth in this event.

With conference meets and last chance qualifiers right around the corner, this event is only going to get deeper, more firepower-centric and scarier in the coming weeks.

Claudia Harnett, Hope Murphy and Maddie Kelly ran 4:30, 4:31 and 4:32 in the 1500 meters, respectively, this past weekend. Which of these women have the best chance at finishing the highest at the outdoor national meet?

It’s really difficult to pick between teammates in this scenario as Harnett and Kelly both run for the University of Chicago. They also both contributed to the Maroons’ 3rd place finish at indoor national meet in the DMR this past winter.

I’ll have to give it to Harnett though, having been one of Chicago’s top runners since coming onto the national scene as soon as she stepped foot on campus. She also demonstrated her speed a few weekends ago, throwing down a 2:11 mark in the 800 meters, giving herself a resume that is awfully hard to ignore.

Harnett is the type of runner who could likely All-American in either the 800 meters or the 1500 meters at the outdoor national meet, so I’m most curious to see if she’ll decide to focus on one event, or attempt the miraculous double of these two events at the NCAA Championships.

The only cautionary aspect about Harnett is that she is still super young thanks to her true freshman status. Youth and relative inexperience, while certainly not Harnett's fault, does make this a challenging question with no wrong answer.

Following her recent 15:49 mark for 5000 meters, how confident are we that Ella Baran attempts the 1500/5k double at the outdoor national meet? How high could she finish in the 5k on the double?

I usually don’t throw absolutes into these types of questions (because "only a Sith deals in absolutes"), but considering that Baran did this exact double last year and has only gotten multiplicatively better since then, that leads me to believe that she will 100% attempt this double.

My only point of concern is with how she performed in the 3000 meters at the indoor national meet following a similarly structured double. Given, it was her third race of the weekend with a mile prelim and a mile final under her belt, but I expected with the pace being much slower than her PR that she would have competed a little bit closer to the front in that 3k.

However, in 2021, she was able to come off of a 1500 meter prelim and a 1500 meter final to take 2nd place in the 5000 meters at the outdoor national meet, so her ability to double has been proven once before.

It’s very likely that many of the top women in Division Three will be doubling back from various events coming into the 5000 meters, so anything is possible for Baran in this event.

I would predict that she could end up walking away with the national title, which admittedly seems like an ambitious take given Kassie Parker's long distance prowess. However, I could also see her finishing 3rd or 4th place if things don’t quite go as planned.

Following Ethan Gregg’s 29:36 (10k) personal best and Stephen Lavey’s 29:42 (10k) personal best, which of these men has more overall momentum going into the month of May?

Both of these men ran incredible 10k races at the Phil Esten Challenge, dropping enormous amounts off of their personal bests. Gregg was clearly the dominant factor in this battle, taking the lead at the 6000 meter mark and not turning back, closing his final 5000 meter split in roughly 14:36.

Gregg is also an All-American in this 10,000 meter event, having placed 8th at last year's outdoor national meet. His strength in the longer distances is quite obvious and he’s proven that with some incredible racing while running solo.

Lavey, meanwhile, was able to sneak into this year’s indoor national meet in the 5000 meters, ultimately placing 17th overall.

In comparison to Gregg, Lavey is more of a relative unknown without any relevant postseason success, so his recent 10k performance is wildly impressive for the Carleton Knight.

This should prove to Lavey that he can a) compete with top Division Three talents like Gregg, and b) ultimately give him some great momentum heading into the postseason.

I’ll be very intrigued to see what Lavey can throw down in a fast 5000 meter race this season.

However, in the end, I’ll go with Gregg in terms of him having more momentum.

I like Lavey’s improvement in his breakthrough race, but since Gregg is already a proven performer in the postseason and has experienced success in this event, I think this was a race that he can check the box off with how comfortably dominant he was. Based on his past successes, it means a little bit more.

Johns Hopkins’ Alex Ross just ran 34:57 for 10,000 meters. She now sits at NCAA #6 on the D3 leaderboard. Who would you say is her D1 or D2 athletic equivalent?

Alex Ross has consistently been an under-the-radar athlete in Division Three for awhile now. She has competed well in the postseason, but sometimes gets overshadowed by some of the bigger names (and sometimes her teammates, like Ella Baran).

Breaking 35:00 for the 10,000 meters in Division Three is no joke, and Ross also has run 16:41 over 5000 meters this season as well, putting her at NCAA #4 in Division Three in that event as well.

In Division One, someone who is doing very well in both the 5000 and 10,000 meter events, who might also be a little under-the-radar, is Utah's Emily Venters. She currently sits at NCAA #6 in the 10,000 meters and NCAA #15 in the 5000 meters in Division One, setting her up as one of the top women with quality marks in both of the long-distance events.

And it doesn't hurt that on their respective national leaderboards, both Ross and Venters sit at the same spots in the 10k.

While neither Ross nor Venters may not be a national favorite in either event, they both certainly have high odds to come home with one (or two) All-American finishes in the long distance events at the outdoor national meet.

Which new steeple PR holds more weight? Spencer Moore dropping nine seconds to run 9:08? Or James McGlashon dropping 23 seconds to run 9:13? Both men earned wins.

I’ll go with James McGlashon which, oddly enough, is the first time in a good while that we’ve heard much of anything from a North Central athlete.

He’s been a solid for awhile now, having run some respectable marks in the non-steeple distances, but this 9:13 in the steeplechase mark stands out above the rest with the potential to progress as the season goes along.

He’ll still need to drop some time in order to realistically secure a national qualifying mark, but McGlashon will certainly have good competition at the last chance meets hosted by North Central where we’ve seen many steeplechasers in previous years qualify for the NCAA Championships.

Trine’s Evie Miller just ran 10:06 in the steeplechase which is an NCAA #2 all-time mark in Division Three. The D3 record in the event sits at 9:58.83. This creates two questions: Do you see Miller breaking the record this spring? Where does Miller’s current 10:06 PR stand amongst the all-time marks that we’ve seen from Parker, Baran and Seeland this year?

When you consider how successful Miller has been in the steeplechase, having only run it twice this season, that record is certainly in realistic danger of being broken.

Since steeplechase improvement generally comes quickly to those who haven’t raced the event often, it wouldn’t shock me at all to see her drop at least eight seconds to see her set the national record.

If the race setting is optimal at her conference meet, then a new record could happen there. If not, then my next guess would be the national meet final, similar to Matthew Wilkinson’s attempt at the Division Three steeplechase record back in 2021 -- completely solo.

So yes, I could see Miller breaking the record, mainly because I like how her future racing opportunities align.

In terms of event-by-event dominance, I think Parker (10k) and Seeland’s (800) national records definitely stand out on top. After them, I’d put the duo of Ella Baran (5000) and Miller’s (steeplechase) on sort of a “second-tier” just below the former two.

In the coming weeks, however, I’d give a solid 80% chance that we’ll see the Division Three record in the steeplechase fall to Evie Miller’s name...and then we'll revisit this conversation.