First Thoughts: FSU Winter XC Classic

I'll just come out and say it. This was probably the most entertaining cross country meet of the winter season so far. In terms of the results, new insights and the amount of analysis necessary to recap the races, we have never had so much to talk about.

The Florida State Winter XC Classic gave us everything that we were hoping for and then some. Here are our First Thoughts on the thrilling Friday battles from Tallahassee...

Click here to see results

---

Women's Recap

All mentions of placements are in reference to overall finish unless otherwise specified.

Colorado Women Stun Stanford Thanks to Better Depth

Coming into this race, the Stanford women were the undeniable favorites in the eyes of many to take home the overall win. They simply had more firepower than the rest of the teams in the field and their depth should have given them enough scoring to fend off their toughest competitors.

However, despite the Cardinal women boasting finishes of 1st (Donaghu), 3rd (Dudek) and 10th (Heymach), it was the Colorado Buffaloes who emerged as the winners, flexing their impressive depth and team running that simply overwhelmed the latter-half of Stanford's lineup. The women from Boulder scored 72 points to Stanford's 77 points.

Colorado's top-five combo of McArthur-DeGenero-Covert-Constien-Nichols placed 5-11-16-17-23, meaning that Colorado put all five of their scorers across the line before Stanford even had their fourth runner cross the line.

Stanford simply didn't have enough depth. Jessica Lawson had a tough day, finishing 32nd overall, while Grace Connelly was close behind in 34th (31st and 33rd in the team scoring). The gap between Stanford's top-three and bottom-two scorers was ultimately the differentiator in this race. If Lawson had run up to the level that we know she is capable of, then Stanford takes home the win and we simply chalk up their performance as a minor scare from Colorado.

However, with Lawson fading in the overall results, Northwestern graduate transfer Aubrey Roberts struggling in her Stanford debut and Jordan Oakes nowhere to be found, the Cardinal women simply had too many scoring deficiencies to overcome.

That said, let's also give Colorado their due credit. McArthur looks like a true low-stick, Michigan graduate transfer Micaela DeGenero looks far better than we expected her to, Covert and Constien appear to be reliable scorers and Abby Nichols is a near All-American who is closing out the scoring in the second-half of this lineup.

Do they still need more firepower to compete for a podium spot? Yes, potentially, but the Buffaloes made a statement today and they should be thrilled with the result that they produced.

The Duke Women Are the Real Deal

This past cross country season was admittedly difficult to gauge for most ACC teams. The Duke women truthfully didn't face much competition throughout the regular season this past fall and when they got the ACC Championships, they finished 4th overall, tightly packed among other teams such as Georgia Tech, Florida State, North Carolina and Notre Dame.

The Blue Devils had a respectable performance in that larger championship field, but the FSU Winter XC Classic was going to be a far more challenging test for them. Honestly, I wasn't sure how they would respond in this race.

However, coach Rhonda Riley has seemingly taken this program to the next level after seeing this women's team earn a convincing 3rd place finish in Friday's race. The Duke women were over 50 points back from runner-up Stanford, but were over 50 points ahead of 4th place Oklahoma State.

In this kind of field, it usually helps to have at least one runner emerge as a low-stick to give their squad a spark and help the team standout in the final results. However, the Duke women put together what was simply a great overall team performance.

Reinhart-Beach-Platek-Schadler-Patterson packed together to post finishes of 19-25-27-28-29 (in the team scoring). It was, without question, the best display of team running from any program in this field.

That depth reminds me a lot of the lineup structure that we saw from the Michigan men last year. They had numerous scoring options, were super deep, but still had one or two potential All-Americans. Sure enough, that lineup structure helped the Wolverines post a stunning 7th place finish at the 2019 NCAA XC Championships.

With two encouraging performances under their belt, I could see a world where the Duke women begin to find momentum and eventually emulate that same lineup dynamic that we saw from the Michigan men over a year ago. A 15-second time spread from Friday's race is not to be ignored, especially when you consider how strong someone like Michaela Reinhart is.

Oklahoma State Women Look Good, Just Not Great. Questions Remain About BIG 12 Teams.

During the altered 2020 cross country season, the Oklahoma State women were without their 2019 star Molly Born. We also saw 2019 low-stick Taylor Somers struggle to rebound from a rumored injury from earlier in the year.

Luckily for the Oklahoma State women, Taylor Roe and Gabby Hentemann stepped up in a big way for the Cowgirls last fall, forming a dynamic duo which gave this team the firepower that we originally expected to see out of Born and Somers.

Despite the emergence of Roe and Hentemann, the Oklahoma State women just didn't have enough depth this past fall and faltered at the 2020 BIG 12 XC Championships. However, four months later, Born has returned to this lineup and Somers has had more time to return to regain her prior fitness.

On paper, this team was expected to be so much better than they were last fall.

And in the results, they certainly were! Taylor Roe continues to validate herself as a national-caliber runner after earning a 4th place individual finish during Friday's race. Gabby Hentemann had what may be the best race of her career with an 11th place finish. Molly Born, in her first race back since her absence, posted a very strong 15th place finish.

In fact, through three scorers, Oklahoma State actually had a better top-three than Colorado, sitting behind only the Stanford women who had the best top-three in the entire field.

Unfortunately for the Cowgirls, the drop-off after their top-three was significant. A pair of freshmen finished 75th and 78th in the team scoring, sending Oklahoma State's point total skyrocketing to 181 points. Despite being listed in the entries, Taylor Somers was nowhere to be found in the results.

The stark contrast between the firepower and the depth of this team was evident this past fall, but it's even more noticeable now that Born has returned to this lineup.

The good news for Oklahoma State is that they finished seven points ahead of Iowa State (5th), the 2020 BIG 12 cross country champions, and 19 points ahead of West Virginia (6th), the 3rd place team at the 2020 BIG 12 XC Championships.

So why is that a big deal?

Well, the NCAA selection committee will be putting a ton of stock into conference championship results when trying to determine who will be going to the NCAA XC Championships in March. With Oklahoma State beating the BIG 12 champions during Friday's race, the selection committee could end up recognizing that the Cowgirls are a revamped and better squad than they were this past fall.

As for Iowa State, they validated the idea that they can be a nationally competitive team, but maybe not to the extent that some people originally thought.

Eric made an excellent point in our meet preview that in terms of personnel, the Cyclones aren't a dramatically different team than they were in 2019 which wasn't even close to qualifying for the national meet. It also didn't help that their competition was relatively light this past fall and that West Virginia didn't have Hayley Jackson at the BIG 12 XC Championships.

The Cyclones are very much a strong program worthy of a ranking in our Top 25. However, they aren't invincible either.

As for West Virginia, you have to give them a ton of credit for their 6th place result, finishing only 11 points behind Iowa State. Ceili McCabe's 8th place individual finish was a huge reason why this team did so well and the middle of their lineup was solid. However, their fifth runner finished 74th in the team scoring, causing the Mountaineers' point total to balloon to 200 points.

There is good news and bad news for West Virginia.

The good news is that they were competitive in this field and earned a top finish amongst some respectable teams.

The bad news, however, is that the teams they beat may not be viewed highly enough in the eyes of the selection committee to give the WVU women a spot to Nationals. In the grand scheme of things, they still lost to BIG 12 rivals Oklahoma State and Iowa State. After also losing to Iowa State (and Texas) in the fall, it is difficult to find an argument that the Mountaineers should be going to Stillwater, Oklahoma come March.

The Case for the Liberty Flames

The Liberty women have been a team quietly lurking in the shadows of larger Power Five programs for the past year or so. They've had respectable pieces, but have only grown stronger since then, bringing in new talents who have since amplified the scoring prowess of this team.

We knew Liberty had a respectable squad, but in a larger field like this against traditional powerhouse programs, we didn't expect a largely unproven team to earn a 7th place finish.

That, of course, is exactly what happened. The dynamic duo of Calli Doan (12th) and Adelyn Ackley (23rd) gave this team enough up-front scoring to stay in the mix amongst some of the better teams in this field. Their depth wasn't amazing, but when you compare the backend of their lineup to the likes of Oklahoma State, Iowa State and West Virginia, it also wasn't dramatically different.

Assuming they win the ASUN title later this winter, do the Flames have enough of a case to potentially qualify for the NCAA Championships? Losing to West Virginia isn't ideal, mainly because the Mountaineers don't have a great argument to earn a national qualifying spot themselves (at least not at the moment).

Still, a conference title and a strong 7th place finish in Friday's race at least keeps Liberty in the national qualifying conversation. I'm not convinced that they'll get into the national meet, but it's not far from impossible, either.

The Woes of Notre Dame, Tennessee and Syracuse

During Friday's race, Notre Dame finished 8th, Tennessee finished 10th and Syracuse finished 13th. Any potential to qualify for the cross country national meet this winter is likely done if you're one of those teams.

The Fighting Irish just haven't had any of the necessary firepower or scoring consistency that we thought they would have this year. Syracuse, meanwhile, continues to falter despite fielding a lineup that seemed to feature more returners than it did in the fall.

As for Tennessee, a 10th place finish in Friday's race, paired with the fact that they didn't race at the SEC XC Championships this past fall, makes it extremely difficult to build a favorable national qualifying case for them. They have strong talents, but just like a lot of teams that we spoke about, the backend of their scoring five simply wasn't strong enough.

Trying to Gauge Utah State

The Utah State women placed 9th this past Friday, sandwiched between Notre Dame and Tennessee. With the Mountain West Conference featuring nationally competitive teams such as New Mexico, Air Force and Boise State, it is difficult to see a reality where the Aggies earn a spot to the national meet. It's not impossible, but things look challenging.

That, however, doesn't mean that the Utah State women have a bad team. They are clearly much improved and deserve plenty of credit for making the scoring adjustments that they have since last year.

---

Men's Recap

All mentions of placements are in reference to overall finish unless otherwise specified.

No Ostberg? No Ratcliffe? No Fahy? No Problem. Stanford Men Earn Convincing Win With Young Lineup.

Despite Iowa State and Colorado being considered as the two favorites in this field, it was the Stanford men who stunned everyone (well, maybe just us), earning a win that trounced both the Cyclones and the Buffaloes by over 30 points.

Coming into this year, we had numerous questions about the Stanford Cardinal. What would this team look like after losing Ostberg, Fahy and Ratcliffe in single offseason? What would Cole Sprout be able to do in his first year of collegiate competition? Which names were capable of having a breakout year? Would the youth on this roster act as a liability? Or would it give this team a ton of upside?

During Friday's race, we finally had many of those questions answered. True freshman Cole Sprout emerged as the team's star scorer, securing a clutch 5th place finish while teammate Charles Hicks, a redshirt freshman, finished 6th. Meanwhile, two-time All-American Alek Parsons locked down a 12th place finish of his own, giving Stanford the best top-three scorers in the field (just like their women's team).

However, the difference between the Stanford men and Stanford women is that the men closed out their scoring at much more rapid pace than the women did.

DJ Principe posted a strong 18th place finish of his own. That was arguably the best cross country performance he's had since placing 77th at the 2018 NCAA XC Championships. Devin Hart was admittedly a bit further back in 29th place, and while that may seem like a notable gap in a nationally competitive, top-heavy field like this, Hart was actually the highest finishing fifth scorer of any team in this race.

In fact, Stanford had the best second, third, fourth and fifth scorers in this entire field!

So what does that mean? Well, it means that they were just flat-out better. They had no roster flaws. Each member of this lineup carried their weight in the scoring. And if that wasn't enough, true freshman Thomas Boyden (34th), Stanford's sixth runner, was also the best sixth runner of the entire race

I am so wildly impressed by this team. They beat numerous podium contenders by a significant margin and even if Iowa State or Colorado had another low-stick in their lineups, there's no guarantee that they would have won.

Kudos to the Cardinal men who went into Tallahassee and made a statement. Four of their top six have freshmen eligibility, leaving us to believe that this program will be a major problem for their NCAA competitors, both now and in years to come.

Iowa State & Colorado Tie for 2nd Place, Each Team Was Without a Key Low-Stick

The Cyclones were favored to take home the win, but no one would have been surprised if it was the Buffaloes who secured gold. Obviously, neither of those teams came out on top, but they did show us that they were largely equal in strength.

Wesley Kiptoo gave the Iowa State men only a single point thanks to his individual win while Thomas Pollard and Mitchell Day had strong performances of their own, finishing 14th and 17th, respectively. However, the drop-off between that top-three and their bottom-two scorers was ultimately what caused the Cyclones' score to inflate to 98 points.

With Festus Lagat finishing 32nd and Milo Greder finishing 38th, the scoring potency of this lineup admittedly seemed flat relative to Stanford.

It's a similar story for Colorado who had Eduardo Herrera post a huge 2nd place individual finish. Alec Hornecker earned a clutch 9th place result, rebounding from his Oklahoma State Invitational performance in a major way and further solidifying himself as the All-American threat that he was in 2019.

After those two, significant gaps began to form. Sophomore Hunter Appleton earned a respectable, but modest, 21st place finish while veteran Austin Vancil finished 28th overall. However, seeing Colorado's fifth runner drop to 44th overall could be argued as the cause of the scoring inflation. The Buffaloes had a very respectable and very strong top-four, bettering Iowa State by five points through those four runners.

We also need to recognize that both Colorado and Iowa State were without key low-sticks who could have dramatically altered the outcome of this race and potentially made things closer with Stanford.

The Buffaloes didn't have rising star Kashon Harrison (or Mississippi State grad transfer Stephen Jones) while the Cyclones didn't have Eastern Kentucky transfer Ezekiel Kibichii available for Friday's race. At their best, those two names are All-American-caliber talents.

Let's suppose that either Kibichii OR Harrison placed 10th in the team scoring (11th overall) -- a strong, but very realistic finish for both of those men.

When you factor in displacement, remove Shea Foster from the overall results and recalculate the scores, Colorado would have finished with a total score of 68 points if just Harrison (and not Kibcihii) had run. Iowa State would have finished with 74 points if just Kibcihii (and not Harrison) had run.

And Stanford? Well, if just one of those men had run and finished 10th in the team scoring, the the Cardinal would have finished with 70 points.

When Colorado and Iowa State are at full strength, they are very much podium contenders. However, for the time being, Stanford has proven to be the overall better team...for now.

Utah State Proves That They Are For Real, Wake Forest Leaves Points On the Table Despite Strong Effort

Utah State's win over Southern Utah and California Baptist at the Dixie State Invitational was promising. They seemingly had a true front-runner in Camren Todd and the rest of their supporting scorers seemed like they were capable of holding their own.

Still, that was a small season opener against respectable, but unexciting competition. The Aggies still had so much more to prove and Friday's race was the perfect opportunity to do just that.

Despite a plethora of highly-ranked and highly-accomplished distance programs toeing the line, it was Utah State that had the best performance relative to expectations, landing a monumental 4th place team finish.

Camren Todd proved that he could be the scoring spark that this team needed, earning a huge 11th place individual finish while teammate Hayden Cooper placed 22nd overall. With Caleb Garnica (31st) and Spencer Nelson (35th) stabilizing the scoring in the middle portion of this lineup, the Utah State men were looking like a team without any major flaws.

However, their fifth runner (Darren Harman) dropped all the way down to 67th place, but that still left Utah State with enough wiggle room to topple a red-hot Wake Forest team. It also wouldn't have made much of a difference if Harman was 20+ spots better given how far ahead Stanford, Wake Forest and Colorado were.

Right now, Utah State looks like a team heavily favored to make it into the national meet despite losing so many veteran runners from their 2019 national qualifying squad. The Mountain West Conference has a few respectable programs, but Utah State simply looks like the overwhelming conference title favorites (for now).

With Utah State finishing in 4th, they consequentially upset the Wake Forest men, a team that was poised to make some serious noise given the names that they added to their already strong lineup.

We finally saw Zach Facioni return to competition and just as we expected, he was wildly impressive. A 4th place individual finish was huge, especially in a field of distance running juggernauts. Teammate Jonathan Velasco proved that his 12th place finish at the ACC Championships wasn't a fluke with a 15th place finish in Friday's race.

With Carter Coughlin finishing as the team's third scorer with a 23rd place finish, things were looking good for the Demon Deacons through three runners.

However, just like a lot of other teams in Friday's race, Wake Forest's scoring problems began to appear in the second-half of their lineup. Jack Tiernan (106th) has proven in the past that he can race at a high level, but he has struggled with consistency, this time failing to finish as a scorer. Meanwhile, teammate Ben Mitchell, who was the 19th place finish at the ACC Championships last fall, was unable to crack the top-100 in Friday's race.

With Wake Forest's final two scorers finishing 57th and 87th in the team scoring, the Demon Deacons were forced to settle behind Utah State in 5th place, 24 points behind the Aggies.

While that may not seem like an ideal performance, there is still a lot to like about this Wake Forest group. Despite Tiernan and Mitchell not having their best races, this varsity lineup was still able to stay within striking distance of a talented Utah State program, all while producing a strong 5th place finish in a national-class field.

Not only that, but Coen Roberts (20th at the ACC Championships) wasn't even in this lineup!

If Tiernan and/or Mitchell are able to have better performances in the future and if Roberts returns to this lineup, then there is still a lot of exciting potential for this Wake Forest program. All things considered, they actually ran very well despite numerous men having "off" days.

Figuring Out Duke, Florida State & Syracuse

Really nice race by the Duke men. They joined their women's team as a program that simply beat expectations by a hefty margin during Friday's race. They finished 6th overall, just six points behind a Wake Forest team that has a handful of top scoring weapons.

With Chris Theodore (13th) having what was arguably the best race of his career and CJ Ambrosio stepping in to finish 25th overall, the Blue Devils had enough upfront scoring to at least keep things interesting. It also didn't hurt that Josh Romine (36th) gave the Blue Devils a very solid third scorer.

However, the drop-off between that top-three and bottom-two is ultimately what held back Duke from getting the edge on Wake Forest or Utah State (their final scorers finished 58th and 61st in the team scoring).

Still, you have to give this group some credit. Duke usually employs a team-running style during their races which wasn't as evident today as it has been in the past. And truthfully, that was probably a good thing for the Blue Devils as the surprise front-running effort from Chris Theodore gave them an edge in a field where almost everyone had backend scoring issues.

As for Florida State, they are clearly a better team after placing 7th in this field. Adriaan Wildschutt is the front-runner that we knew he could be after earning a 3rd place individual finish. Fellow graduate transfer Ahmed Muhumed wasn't amazing, but his 49th place finish, where he was surrounded by numerous teammates, offered additional scoring stability.

However, the big catch is that low-stick Paul Stafford wasn't racing today. If he was, then there is a very good chance that the Seminoles not only beat Duke, but they also beat Wake Forest.

Unfortunately, trying to build a national qualifying case in favor of Florida State is looking to be too much of a challenge. They simply haven't beaten enough top-level teams to earn spot in Stillwater, Oklahoma despite how much better Stafford makes this squad.

The winter cross country season may not be their time to shine, but they could absolutely be a team to watch during the 2021 fall cross country season.

Finally, we have Syracuse, a team that finished 8th overall in Friday's race.

I'm not sure if there is much to say here. The Orange just haven't run well this year. Their performance at the ACC Championships was disappointing and their inability to beat a limited Florida State team has left us scratching our heads.

Joe Dragon had a decent race, but the scoring potency just wasn't there for them and their depth was truthfully unexciting. Tooker also had a tough outing in his long-awaited return, finishing 91st overall.

As weird as it is to say, I would struggle to think that Syracuse can qualify for the NCAA Championships in March.

The Biggest Winner From Friday? The Oklahoma State Men.

You're probably wondering, "Wait, the Oklahoma State men didn't run at Florida State." And you'd be right! However, one future member of their 2021 fall cross country team did race on Friday and his name is Shea Foster.

You may remember Foster's name from this past winter when it was announced that he was finishing his eligibility as a graduate transfer at Oklahoma State starting next fall. The current Southeastern Louisiana runner rose to prominence throughout 2020 as he made massive improvements in his overall fitness, securing new personal bests of 14:00 (5k) and 28:40 (10k) while competing unattached.

When you run as fast as he did, it was hard to discount his talent. Still, Foster is new the upper-echelon of the NCAA's best distance talents and there was no guarantee that his success on the track was going to translate to the grass.

But now, after seeing Foster land a huge 7th place finish in Friday's loaded field, the Oklahoma State Cowboys have to be thrilled. They're looking at eventually adding a possible Top 50 cross country runner to a roster that already features numerous Top 50-caliber talents. In fact, we currently have three of their men listed inside our Top 50 for the 2021 winter cross country season.

September, October and November are a long way out, but the potential for Oklahoma State to earn a podium spot in the fall of 2021 is looking increasingly more likely after seeing Foster's most recent performance.