First Thoughts: Colorado Mines Silences Altitude Critics & Could Cleyet-Merle Do Mile/800 Double?

Saying that this past weekend was "special" would be an understatement. The performances that we saw on Friday and Saturday were ones for the record books (literally) and this was debatably the best weekend of distance action we've seen in a very long time, maybe ever.

So when I approached Garrett about how we were going to recap all of the action, he had an idea: How about Garrett writes a few questions for me (John, your D2 specialist) to answer?

Well, that game-plan ultimately won-out over a few other ideas. SO! We're going to dive into every distance event and analyze some of the top performances from this past weekend. Unfortunately, we won't be able to mention every jaw-dropping distance result from the last few days, but we'll certainly touch on most of them!

Here we go in three...two...one...

Tanner Maier ran a flat-track converted 1:48.93 for 800 meters this past weekend. What percent chance do you think he has to contend for NCAA gold? Why?

I would say no more than a 10% chance right now – more realistically, around 5% right now.

The first thing I’ll point out is that Maier has yet to break the 1:50 barrier without a conversion which, admittedly, is a very tough thing to do during the indoor season. My second note is that I’m fairly confident that the 800 meters will be won in a time between 1:48 and 1:49 this season.

When you combine those two factors, my favoritism for NCAA gold begins to lean towards those who have more experience than the rest of the field and a proven ability to actually run their seed time.

Now, that said, I do think that Maier has the ability to go under the 1:50 barrier this winter when he races at the NCAA Indoor Championships, although he may need to do that just to qualify for the 800 meter final when it’s all said and done.

And accomplishing that feat for a second day in a row? Well, that’d be extremely tough for someone who has yet to do so.

Make no mistake, the strength is clearly there for Maier after seeing him run 2:25 for 1000 meters. His career-long consistency in this event also makes him a fairly reliable pick in the prelims. If the 800 meters at the national meet does indeed become a championship-style race, then Maier definitely has a chance.

Even so, it's more likely that someone else is better positioned to make a move or cover a move during that last 200 meters. Again, this isn't to say that he can't win it all, because he certainly can, but there are other factors to consider here.

Dallas’ Baptist’s Jared Gilley had a breakout race this past weekend, posting a time of 1:49.93. When looking at his past performances, on a scale of 1 to 10, how surprising was this result? Why?

It’s definitely surprising, but I think the name and the school may have some people more surprised than they should be. I’d give this a "surprise rating" of 7 out of 10, with 10 being "completely shocked" on the scale.

My relatively high surprising rating isn’t so much about Gilley running 1:49, but rather the fact that he just skipped over the sub-1:51 barrier entirely and went right into the sub-1:50 range when looking solely at his indoor track career.

Gilley recently ran time of 4:14 in the mile. Sure, that’s not the best mile time ever, but it’s much better than his 4:05 mark for 1500 meters and I think that slight jump in fitness translated in a much more impactful way to his best event, the 800 meters.

His previous personal best for 800 meters was 1:50.64 from the 2021 outdoor season which tells us that he was trending in the right direction throughout last spring -- he just ran out of time that season to go under 1:50.

His added bit of strength does appear to go a long way in 800 meter races. When you couple that with his speedier marks of 22.98 (200) and 49.21 (400), it would appear that we have the ideal 800 meter athlete.

Simon Fraser’s Alison Andrews-Paul ran 2:05 for 800 meters this past weekend. If Berenice Cleyet-Merle opts to run the mile/800 double at the indoor national meet, what percent chance would you give Andrews-Paul of taking home gold in the 800 meters assuming she’s fresh?

If Andrews-Paul is fresh, then I think there’s a 30% chance that she can pull off the upset. And that’s no shot at Andrews-Paul here, it just speaks to how good Cleyet-Merle has been this season.

Now, that said, it’s all dependent on how hard Cleyet-Merle has to work in the mile. That will be the biggest determining factor for a potential upset bid, but she has shown incredible strength thus far. A slower mile time from Cleyet-Merle is still just as fast as the next-best mile time that we've seen from the rest of the D2 women this year.

At the same time, it's also worth noting that Andrews-Paul may not even be fresh herself if she does indeed on Simon Fraser's distance medley relay team, making an upset victory an even tougher task than it already is.

Even so, Andrews-Paul is an accomplished and highly experienced 800 meter runner. She has run at a very high level, previously competing at the D1 tier for Baylor, before coming to Simon Fraser.

Yet, at the same time, we also have to question how much of a factor Yasmine Hernandez will play in this national conversation. Because in my mind, she would have a similar level of probability to pull off the upset over a doubling Cleyet-Merle as Andrews-Paul would.

Which 2:09 mark was the bigger surprise? Cami Streff (Augustana) or Carolin Bothe (UW-Parkside)?

I should tell you to flip a coin because both women had the best races of their lives this past weekend. I honestly couldn't convincingly go with one name over the other thanks to their prior resumes being so incredibly similar.

Of course, since I’m being asked to pick one, I’ll go with Carolin Bothe.

The UW-Parkside athlete had never broken 2:14 prior to this past weekend. However, her recent run of 5:09 in the mile showed us promise. That mile result definitely showed us an overall improvement in her fitness, but not to the point where we thought Bothe would be running 2:09 for 800 meters.

This 800 meter mark is far and above everything else she’s ever run and it puts her inside the top-10 marks for 800 meters this season.

I only say that Streff's 2:09 mark was less surprising because A) her prior PR was slightly faster than Bothe's prior PR at a mark of 2:13 and B) her last name is Streff, meaning that she has a direct bloodline relation to one of the better D2 middle distance runners in the country, Hailey Streff from CSU-Pueblo.

Ironically, Cami literally sits one spot ahead of her sister Hailey on the national leaderboard at the time of publication.

American International’s Callum Ellson ran 3:59 in the mile this past weekend. How much of a national title threat is he in the mile right now?

I think he’s got the second-best odds behind Aaron Ahl assuming Christian Noble declares for the 5k/3k double or the DMR/3k double later this month. Ellson is one of three men to break the four-minute barrier this year, putting him in elite company. Given the scarcity of that happening in D2, it’d be wrong of us to not consider him as a serious threat.

The AIC superstar has shown us in a short time that he’s one of the strongest runners in the country in a variety of events. However, the more important aspect to consider is that the playing field will likely be equal as nearly half of the current national qualifiers in the mile are expected to run the DMR at the NCAA Indoor Championships as well.

If I had to place a percentage on it, I’d give Ellson a 25% chance to win NCAA gold in the mile under the assumption that he's running the DMR and the mile. That mile final won't necessarily be about who is the fastest, but rather who is able to bounce back from the DMR the best.

Offer one sentence worth of analysis for the following three mile performances from this past weekend…

Luke Julian runs 4:00 mile

While he hasn’t broken 4:00 yet, Julian has reminded us that he’s still one of the nation’s best milers and deserves, to some degree, be in the national title conversation.

Austin Miller runs 4:02 mile

This result was a pleasant surprise that turns Miller into a sneaky dark-horse contender for what could be one of the biggest national title upsets in recent history.

Mason Strader runs 4:02 mile

The key piece to the Pittsburg State's DMR team is looking better than ever as the Gorillas aim to defend their title -- something they could realistically do in March despite the overwhelming top-end talent in D2 this year.

With Berenice Cleyet-Merle running 4:31 in the mile this past weekend, the U. Indy star now holds two D2 records. Should she attempt the mile/800 double at the indoor national meet? Will she attempt the mile/800 double at the indoor national meet?

The answers to these questions are simple.

Yes, she should attempt the mile/800 double at the NCAA Indoor Championships.

And yes, I believe that she will do the mile/800 double at the NCAA Indoor Championships.

I don’t think there is another D2 athlete on her level right now and I don’t see anyone getting anywhere close to her level in the next three weeks.

A big question that will need to be answered is whether or not Cleyet-Merle will participate on a potential national qualifying DMR team?

The Greyhound superstar has helped Indianapolis run 11:33 this season and with that time, they have a legitimate shot at winning the NCAA title in this event. However, between prelims and finals, is five total races going to be too many for this middle distance juggernaut?

Given the amount of strength that she has shown, it’s not impossible for her to find success in a DMR. However, the uncertainty is whether or not that relay will hinder her chances of winning both the mile and the 800 meters if that is indeed what she chooses to do.

Earning double gold in the mile and the 800 meters seems plenty realistic. However, the DMR aspect of her postseason hopes is something that we are completely overlooking.

Offer one sentence worth of analysis on the following three mile performances from this past weekend…

Yasmine Hernandez runs 4:43 mile

A huge breakthrough result in the mile leads us to believe that she’ll make another leap in the 800 meters, potentially becoming the biggest threat to taking down Cleyet-Merle, especially if the U. Indy star decides to double (or even triple).

Klaudia O’Malley runs 4:44 mile

O’Malley’s best chances at a national title will be in the 3000 meters after showing us that she has improved her speed while maintaining her strength from the fall.

Fiona Hawkins runs 4:45 mile

Hawkins is a superstar in the making and a serious threat to finish as the NCAA runner-up in the mile...or at least as an All-American in a worst case scenario.

Grand Valley State’s Isaac Harding and Tanner Chada ran 8:00 (NCAA #10) and 8:06 (NCAA #16) this past weekend. Assuming they qualify for the national meet in this event, are Harding and Tanner still title threats in the 3000 meters?

I will say that Harding is still a serious title threat for this race, but I no longer think that NCAA gold is in the cards for Chada. This was a race that I was eagerly awaiting as we hadn’t seen either athlete since December.

That’s a really long layoff, even for the best athletes in the NCAA.

I think that this was more of a second rust-buster than anything for Harding and he’s run just as fast as Aaron Ahl as recently as last year. He’s the NCAA runner-up from last winter and he’s broken through as of late with two NCAA titles since then. The rust is a real factor and I think he’ll sharpen up at the GLIAC Championships in preparation for the 5k/3k double with two more titles in his sights.

As for Chada, we’re not even certain that he will make the national field for the 3000 meters this season. He’s sitting at NCAA #16 right now and it wouldn’t come as a surprise to see four to six more marks in the next two weeks that are faster than his 8:06 time this season.

Now, Chada will likely be running the 3k yet again this season and a time faster than 8:06 certainly would not surprise us given his past result.

The question at hand is, how would he fare in a field that’s certainly better than it was last year when he finished 5th place overall? To be honest, another 5th place finish for Chada would be a great result for someone who’s been viewed as a true long distance athlete for most of his career.

But a national title? Well, I unfortunately don't see that happening for him this season.

Who produced the more encouraging 9:38 (3k) result?

Anna Esvelt or Layla Almasri?

I will go with Anna Esvelt, the rising distance star from Seattle Pacific.

We’ve known that Almasri is talented for a while now. Seeing her throw down a top time is nothing new. However, prior to this year, it's been her performances in the postseason that have left us wanting more.

Ultimately, her recent 3k result doesn't really change those thoughts.

Esvelt, on the other hand, has come out of nowhere and she certainly shocked everyone when she ran 16:31 for 5000 meters. Seeing her run 9:38 for 3000 meters this past weekend solidifies the idea that her 5k was no fluke and that she can likely run that fast again.

In fact, she may need to do exactly that in order to be competitive come March.

Colorado Mines just dominated the all-time NCAA leaderboard in the 5000 meters at Boston University. Dillon Powell ran a new collegiate D2 record of 13:33 while Kyle Moran ran a D2 NCAA #2 all-time mark of 13:35. Jake Mitchem’s mark of 13:40 now sits at D2 NCAA #4 all-time while Dylan Ko ran 13:47 for D2 NCAA #11 all-time. How do you think these results will translate to the national stage?

This may be my favorite question that has been asked so far in this article.

I think this past weekend is going to change how we see the 5000 meters being raced when the national meet finally rolls around. In my mind, there is one simple game plan for Dillon Powell at the national meet: Run hard from the gun and see if anyone else can hang on.

It nearly worked in cross country and it has since led to him earning the D2 record this past weekend.

There will be at least four Mines athletes involved in this race at the NCAA Indoor Championships and I’m guessing that their objective is to ensure that one of them comes home with the national title. Powell probably has the best chance in that case.

I don’t necessarily think that we will see a 13:33 mark run on the national stage, but the meet record of 13:42 is definitely in jeopardy. Don’t be surprised if you see multiple men dip under that 13:42 mark in an effort to take down Mines and company.

However, given the small army that the Orediggers have, trying to battle them in March will prove to be a difficult challenge.

Following Briana Robles running 16:03, Zoe Baker running 16:19, Katie Doucette running 16:23 and Fatima Alanis running 16:29, what is your confidence level in Celine Ritter winning the 5k national title right now?

I'm not sure that I was ever sold on Ritter winning the 5000 meter title to begin with, but I’d be lying if I said my confidence isn't currently wavering a bit.

If I had to put a percentage on it, I’d say that my confidence in Ritter winning the national title in the 5000 meters this winter is around 15%.

Firstly, we saw Ritter run 16:22 at the NCAA Outdoor Championships last spring where she finished in 8th place. Yes, it's true, the D2 level no longer has Ida Narbuvoll or the Flanagan sisters, but don’t be misled, the competition is just as deep this year.

Secondly, are we even sure that Ritter will be running this race come March?

The Flames’ DMR squad currently sits at NCAA #10 and Ritter is their anchor. She opted for just the 3000 meters last winter and given her success at the 1500 meter discipline, it wouldn’t surprise me to see her opt for the DMR/mile/3000 triple this year.

If she does choose the 5000 meters, it is going to be incredibly interesting to see how this race plays out. Ritter has the leg speed to out-kick most of the women in this field. However, if she has been focusing on the middle distance events, will she have the same amount of strength that she had in cross country?

If she does, then it’s very possible that we see Ritter secure gold in this event.

Give your general thoughts on the men’s DMR.

This is going to be the race everyone is going to want to watch on March 11th. We’ve already seen three teams dip under 9:40 this year and we’ve got arguably the deepest field ever in the history of the event.

Simon Fraser should be the favorites when March rolls around and that’s largely because their team ran 9:38 a few weeks ago without Charlie Dannatt in their lineup (he just ran 2:56 for 1200 at the Lilac Grand Prix with SFU’s team).

Meanwhile, Callum Elson, American International’s final leg, just broke the four-minute barrier at Boston University this past weekend, putting him nearly on the same level as Aaron Ahl in terms of anchoring.

Then we have the defending champs, Pittsburg State, who just ran 9:37 and reminded everyone that in order to win the title, they'll have to go through them AND their home facility to do so.

Augustana (S.D.) and Nebraska-Kearney will also throw themselves in the mix after both teams surprised us by running 9:41 to finish 2nd and 3rd, respectively, behind Pittsburg State.

And since we’ve all seemingly forgotten, there’s still the Lee Flames who boast a lineup that includes Carson Bix, Titus Lagat and Christian Noble. On paper, that’s probably the best DMR lineup in D2 and they currently have the NCAA #7 time this season.

This field is wildly deep, there’s no denying that.

This race is the ultimate bragging rights battle and I’d go out on a limb and say that these athletes care more about this event than they do their individual events. I would not be surprised one bit if we saw teams run in the 9:30 to 9:35 range in an effort to take home the national title.

Give your general thoughts on the women’s DMR.

This race won’t be like last year when Grand Valley State ran away with the national title and never looked back. As of right now, there are nine teams under the 11:40 barrier and the only real drop off is after Simon Fraser, a lineup that sits at NCAA #5 with a time of 11:36.

Indianapolis, Simon Fraser and CSU-Pueblo likely pose as the biggest threats to take down Grand Valley State this year as their anchor legs are probably equal, if not stronger than O’Malley at this very moment.

That being said, GVSU can still roll out the same team that ran 11:21 last year and make everything I’ve written here a moot point. But until they do that, the women's DMR is wide-open in terms of who can take home the title.

Augustana (SD) currently has the NCAA #2 mark in the DMR this season and while it is a converted mark, they shouldn’t be slept on.

PJ English and Nicolette Schmidt have quietly become two of the better D2 middle distance athletes in the country, showing off great firepower and underrated consistency. They could propel the Vikings to a potential DMR crown if things play out in their favor.

There are two more teams that I have some uncertainty about: Western Colorado and Adams State.

Western Colorado has the NCAA #4 time, but their anchor leg is Katie Doucette. She just ran 16:23 for 5000 meters and has a shot to finish inside the top-three of that race at the national meet. If Doucette contests the 5k, then that almost certainly rules her out for the DMR.

Meanwhile, Adams State hasn’t put together their strongest DMR team if you ask me.

They’ve run out Ava O’Connor, Jessica Simon and Nicole Lawrence for the 1200/800/1600 legs, respectively. However, I have an idea. If the Grizzlies were to...

• Replace O’Connor with either Lawrence or Morgan Hykes (both have 4:45 converted marks for the mile) on the 1200 meter leg...

• Move O’Connor to the 800 meter leg (she boasts a converted time of 2:10)...

• And add Fiona Hawkins to the mile leg...

...then I think you’ve got a legitimate title-contending team from Alamosa yet again.

We’ll see what ends up happening over the last two weeks of the season, but as of right now, this race looks to be just as hotly contested as the men’s side which that bodes well for fans who will pack the Robert W. Plaster Center in Pittsburg, Kansas.