First Thoughts: A Wild Weekend of D2 Action

The NCAA D2 Championships were an absolute thrill, providing us with numerous upsets and highly entertaining finishes. Below, we asked our veteran D2 analyst John Cusick to answer a few prompts and offer some insight about the national meet results.

And don't worry, final D2 rankings are coming in June!

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MEN's ANALYSIS

On a scale of 1 to 10, how surprised are you that Wes Ferguson won the men’s 800 meter national title?

I’d likely go with a value of 5 on that scale. When you watch the race, Ferguson was locked in for the entirety of that final. He made his move with 300 meters to go and never looked back.

I think the bigger shock of this race was how it played out in terms of race strategy. The pack went out in 58 seconds (!) and Ferguson closed in 52 to hold off Rugenerwa.

The reality is that this became a glorified 400 meter race and when you check the splits. It’s not that Ferguson had the fastest last lap, it’s just the field gave him 10 meters before responding.

This race was never as close as the final times indicate and although Sharman-Newell was the favorite coming in, the idea that Ferguson could beat him was far from a stretch -- it was plenty realistic. And with this win, Ferguson nows enters D2 lore with a few years to go in his college career.

Over / Under 2.5 national titles that Reece Sharman-Newell will win over the rest of his collegiate career?

This is a good question given that many of us thought that he was the overwhelming favorite coming into the weekend. But I I think I am going to go with the "under" here and say he wins two NCAA titles before he graduates / turns pro.

Sharman-Newell is incredibly talented, there’s no denying that, but one of the things we were concerned about heading into the national meet was his lack of championship racing experience. I think this weekend was a great display of why those concerns were valid.

It also doesn’t help that he ran the 800 meter prelims and the 4x400 prelims on the same day, likely sapping some energy from his legs whereas other names only had that 800 meter prelim.

Is Callum Elson the best tactical runner you’ve seen since you began covering D2 competition for The Stride Report? If not, then who is?

It would be hard to argue that there is anyone else better than him, tactically, that I’ve seen in recent history. Names that come to mind include Thomas Staines, James Young and Wes Ferguson to name a few.

I don’t quite understand it, but Elson just has that "it" factor when it comes to racing. He’s never rattled, he’s always calm and when he makes a move, it’s definitive. He led the entirety of the first 1400 meters and when he was passed heading into the homestretch, he had an immediate response.

I’m not sure if it’s just an innate ability or if his coaches are in his ear, but no matter what it is, Elson has left a mark in the Division Two world. It just seems like he's impossible to defeat.

Who was the biggest All-American surprise in the 1500 meters? Who was the biggest surprise finals miss in the 1500 meters?

I think that the biggest surprise in the All-American group was Connar Southard of Pittsburg State. Coming into the national meet, he had never run faster than 3:46, but then he proceeded to run 3:42 in the preliminary heat.

It’s a true testament to his strength that he was able to come back and run 3:47 for 4th place against some very good middle distance athletes who are known for their elite turnover.

As for the finals miss, it has to be MacCauley Franks of Western Washington. He has been a favorite for our TSR team since his breakout performances at the end of the 2022 indoor track season.

However, this is always the case when you are part of the first heat when Franks was. He fell victim to a slower race and it didn’t quite go his way – all part of the NCAA experience at the highest level.

Coming into the national meet, what percent chance did you give Afewerki Zeru to win the 5k national title?

Coming into the meet, it was likely less than a 5% chance and that’s more because of Zeru’s opponents rather than Zeru himself.

It’s time to give Zeru his flowers. He has very quietly had a great outdoor track season and that includes being the RMAC champion in this event. Zeru improved his fitness enough to allow him to stick near the front of that lead pack and seize the opportunities that he wasn’t able to capitalize on in recent NCAA Championships.

He bided his time, pounced at the right time and never looked back.

The biggest reason why we thought Zeru wouldn’t win this race was because had it become tactical, we thought he wouldn’t have the same kick as the field. And while his final lap wasn’t anything special (63 seconds), it’s his final mile that truly proved to be the difference maker.

Zeru finished in 4:11 and put two seconds between him and Beraki.

Aerobic strength at its finest.

What was there anything about this 5k race that surprised you? If so, what was it?

I don’t know if there was anything so surprising that we need to harp on it in detail, but I was a bit surprised that those who were only in the 5k somewhat underwhelmed. Everyone who finished as an All-American was doubling back from the 10k less than 48 hours prior and that should have, in theory, put them at a disadvantage.

Titus Winders and Ryan Riddle are very good runners and they have proven that in the past. Still, I think it’s safe to say that everyone, us included, expected them to race better on fresh legs and that just wasn’t the case this time around.

Was Dillon Powell the least surprising national title winner in the distance events?

Yeah, I think you could say that. We knew that Powell’s best distance was the 10k and he proved that this weekend. It wasn’t necessarily a grind fest like we had predicted headed into the weekend, but once Powell made his move with a mile to go, there was no doubting that he was in his element.

Powell closed his final 800 meters in 2:04 and his final mile was 4:15. He may not have a 1500 meter time like the rest of his counterparts, but when you’re able to take the legs out from underneath your opponents, who needs 1500 meter speed?

RMAC schools did fairly well in both the 5k and the 10k. What are your thoughts on how the RMAC schools performed this past weekend?

My thoughts are that the RMAC was a dominant force this weekend. It reminded people that if you want to run at a high level, the odds are very good that you can do that in the RMAC. The conference was responsible for nine out of 16 All-American spots in the longer distances while going 1-2-3 in both events.

I think that speaks for itself.

I think if people are continuing to harp on attitude conversions, they’re going to be hard pressed to find anything negative to say this time around.

Can you put into perspective how big of an upset Reece Smith’s win over Clement Duigou was?

It’s hard to put this in perspective because Duigou had run the second-fastest steeple time in D2 history over the steeplechase. But outside of that, he didn't necessarily have all of the accolades that others have had when they were upset.

I’d liken it to a slightly watered down version of Edward Cheserek losing the 2015 Pre-National XC meet to Virginia Tech's Tommy Curtin. Sure, both of those men had greater relative success compared to Smith and Duigou, but Cheserek was the clear favorite and while his loss was surprising, the guy who took him down (Curtin) had a loaded resume in his own right.

I think what will put this race into perspective is that Smith broke the meet record of eight years which was held by Adams State’s Tabor Stevens when he ran 8:35 in dominant fashion. The race that Smith had was equally as dominant and having run 8:32, he has now solidified himself as one of D2’s best steeplechasers ever as just a sophomore.

Which athletes thrived from this race being fast?

Frankly, I’m not sure anyone outside of Reece Smith benefitted from this racing being this fast.

When you go back and look at the splits, every athlete except for Smith seemed to struggle in the last few laps. Clement Duigou likely benefitted from pushing the pace, keeping the field at a distance which allowed him to finish 2nd. His efforts also likely made the rest of the field uncertain of their abilities at some point.

Knowing how fast Duigou had run in the regular season, it was a risk/reward type of deal for all parties involved and it just so happened that Smith was up for the challenge.

Had anyone else gone with them, we’re likely talking about someone removing themselves from the All-American conversation by deviating from their race plan.

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WOMEN's ANALYSIS

Is it fair to say that this race played perfectly in Beckford’s preferred racing style, effectively giving her the win?

I think that's a fair argument to make. The race went out in 65 seconds and when you can run a 400 meter race in 55 seconds, that’s likely a jog. I will say, however, that the race also played into Alison Andrews-Paul’s favor, she just simply ran out of gas over the last 50 meters.

Not only that, but we have likely underestimated Beckford’s level of strength. After going out in 65 seconds, she was able to come back in 60 seconds and that’s a remarkable feat in and of itself.

I’m not sure how often you’d pick against Beckford in a 400 meter race straight up against this field, but it is certainly not more than once out of every 10 times.

Assuming that the eligibility listed on TFRRS is correct, is it fair to call Ukeyvia Beckwith the undeniable title favorite for next year?

I don’t think that is too bold of a statement. The improvement of Beckwith at the end of this season certainly makes it easier to believe that she’ll be even faster next year as well. If she’s run 2:05, then it wouldn’t come as a shock to see her make the jump into the 2:02 to 2:03 range.

Beckwith has a similar background to Beckford in terms of her ability to run a fast 400 meter race, and as long as she maintains her strength throughout the summer and fall, we could see her making major waves all throughout the winter and spring of 2023.

How surprised are you that Yasmine Hernandez won the 1500 meter national title (narrowly) with a racing style that, in theory, favored Roisin Flanagan?

It's true, in theory, a race that was run like this benefitted Flanagan, but I think we’re undervaluing the strength-based improvements that Hernandez has made. On a scale of one to 10, I’d give the surprise factor a value somewhere around a three or four for this question.

Hernandez and Flanagan faced off in Pueblo at a last chance meet before the national meet where they finished 1-2 with Hernandez taking home the victory. That was likely a huge confidence boost and Hernandez was able to walk away with some new information on how Flanagan races when it’s a hard effort.

It’s also always been known that Hernandez had better foot speed and Flanagan was going to need to take that away from her. She tried to do that, but Hernandez had prepared for this and her final lap proves that.

In terms of the overall results, would you say that this was the most predictable race of the weekend?

I wouldn’t go as far to say that it was the most predictable race of the weekend. However, of the top-three finishers in the 1500 meters, it is probably safe to say that had any of them won, we would have said it was a strong possibility.

I do think that we can say that this race, like most years, had the most predictable racing style. And in turn, that likely leads to us believing it was the most predictable because of how the top-three women performed.

But generally speaking, when you look at the rest of these results, it was surprising not to see Ava O'Connor in the finals or any of the UC-Colorado Springs women not earning All-American honors despite three of them making the finals. Those are just a few quick examples.

Robles has now won two national titles, both in the 5k. When her NCAA career is all said and done, how many national titles do you think she will have won?

When it’s all said and done, I can’t bring myself to say any less than five in total. Giving a minimum answer may be a cop-out, but she has looked spectacular this year and there’s no reason to believe that she won’t be even better next year.

You might be looking at your new national title favorite in cross country, the 5k and the 10k moving forward in her career.

She is only a sophomore and if she’s able to keep running at this level, then it’s not out of the realm of possibilities for her to win four or five more NCAA titles. If she does indeed win as many as six or seven titles, then Robles will go down as one of the best ever in not only D2 women’s history, but Division Two history in general.

Is Roisin Flanagan the best D2 runner to never win an individual national title?

This is a question that will make you go back and check to make sure it’s actually true. It’s not often that a collegiate record holder isn’t able to win an NCAA title, but that’s where we find ourselves with Flanagan.

Her personal bests certainly suggest that she is deserving of a national title, but when you go and look at who she has raced, it almost makes sense why that she doesn’t have one.

Flanagan has battled the likes of Stephanie Cotter, Alicjia Konieczek, Caroline Kurgat, Ida Narbuvoll and even her own sister Eilish Flanagan in efforts to try and win a title. Those are some of the best names in D2 history and defeating them likely required an other-worldly effort.

It is disappointing that she isn’t walking away with an NCAA title, but her resume speaks for itself and her talent will transcend her lack of a title when we review NCAA history.

Given the relative youth of the top finishers in this 10k race, how much of a factor did Jennifer Sandoval’s experience play a role in her national title win?

I actually think that experience is the sole reason why Sandoval walked away with a title this year. After watching her finish 2nd place last year, it seems like she knew what adjustments needed to be made and where to execute certain moves in an effort to earn a win.

Last year, Ida Narbuvoll made her move at 6k and ran away with the title in a time of 33:36. Sandoval won this year’s event in 33:35 – and the biggest factor was being able to stay with the lead runner, Brianna Robles, up until the last 400 meters where her kick was better than Robles’.

The gained experience was clearly the deciding factor in who got to take home the 10k title in 2022, and that's not a hot take when talking about the longer distances like the 5k and 10k.

Were you surprised by how many younger athletes (or athletes with underclassman eligibility) were in this 10k field?

It is somewhat surprising to see this many underclassman athletes in the field for two reasons.

The first reason is that this is a grueling event and because of that, it usually means that an athlete isn’t well versed in the distance until their third or fourth years in college.

The second is that the high school maximum racing distance is 5000 meters and the jump to the 10,000 meters usually comes with some hiccups.

So for so many of these younger athletes to jump up to the maximum collegiate racing distance and also have All-American success is fairly surprising.

Was Eleanora Curtabbi the most obvious title favorite in the women’s distance events this year?

Yes. Plain and simply put, this was probably the race that everyone thought we were going to 100% accurately predict coming into the weekend.

Curtabbi was just better than this field all year long and made sure to prove it again while winning the title, shaving four seconds off of her personal best. In fact, including Curtabbi, six of the eight All-Americans in this field set a personal best in the final.

No matter the kind of race we were going to see, Curtabbi had proven that she could win in fast or tactical settings. Luckily for her, it was both.

She didn’t have to push the pace and she was able to tuck in before making her move at 800 meters. She then proceeded to lay down a 67-second last lap and ultimately put five seconds between her and the field, solidifying her dominance.

And when we looked at the results, our TSR writers were far from shocked.

Who in the women’s steeplechase field would have benefitted from a slower, more tactical race? Would that have changed the outcome at all?

There’s no doubt in my mind that if it were more tactical that Curtabbi would still win this race. All year long, we talked about how Curtabbi’s range was some of the best in the country. She holds a personal best of 2:08 in the 800 meters and that was clearly on show for everyone at the end of this race.

No one in the field has the same kind of wheels as Curtabbi and if they weren’t able to take her legs out from under her in a fast race, then it’d prove even more difficult to beat her in a slower race.

So as far as the title race is concerned, a slower race likely wouldn't have changed much and it's admittedly hard to see too many scenarios that would have drastically altered the rest of the All-American finishes that we saw.