First Thoughts: 2022 NCAA Outdoor Championship Reactions (Day One)

Day one of the NCAA Outdoor Championships is all wrapped up and naturally, we have a handful of headlines that need to be discussed. Here are our first thoughts and reactions from Wednesday's action...

Men's 1500 Meters

Coming into this meet, it was abundantly clear that Mario Garcia Romo was the national title favorite, but when it came to challengers, the consensus was that Anass Essayi would most likely be the biggest threat to the Ole Miss star.

That, however, is no longer the case as the South Carolina star, who had yet to lose a non-prelim race this year, faltered in the final moments of his prelim. The Gamecock ace tried to shake off the field by asserting a fast time, but the rest of these men handled the quick pace fairly well.

With 200 meters to go, it was clear that Essayi was in trouble and with 100 meters to go he....just stepped off? According to a report from LetsRun's writing staff, Essayi was dealing with a hamstring injury which had been hampering him since the SEC Championships.

But thanks to Essayi's willingness to get to the front and make this pace honest, most of the top names who were expecting to make it to the finals did exactly that. Jonathan Davis looked excellent in his prelim and solidified the idea that a quicker pace in the finals would benefit him given his 3:36 mark from earlier this season.

Other commonly picked names like Thomas Vanoppen and Adam Spencer also secured automatic qualifiers, but something slightly more tactical may be their preferred racing style in the final despite posting 3:37 marks in the prelims.

Sam Ellis wasn't a total shock to advance as he is a veteran who was due for a big performance. And although Ryan Schoppe didn't get an automatic qualifying spot, his 3:37.94 mark still played into his strengths as a runner and it comfortably gave him an a time qualifier.

But Nathan Green? The freshman from Washington? This dude is something else...but I've been singing his praises all season long!

Green has thrived in highly competitive fields and had run sub-3:40 twice coming into this meet. His inexperience admittedly made me hesitant to put him as an All-American, especially after facing the prelim he had to face, but gosh, Green looks far more poised and composed than I've seen most rookies on these kind of stages.

It was a bummer for Nick Dahl not to advance, but at least one favorite in this field was going home disappointed and unfortunately for Dahl, it was him. He also seemingly took a misstep late in the race and that ultimately impacted his momentum.

As for heat two, we have quite a bit to talk about.

First off, I have never felt so good about Mario Garcia Romo winning a national title after seeing him in that prelim. That's not just because some top-tier threats are out of the finals, but mainly because he looked SO poised and calm in a race that saw a lot of change and variance.

Despite sitting in the back of the pack and getting caught on the inside rail, Garcia Romo let the race unfold in front of him. He moved to the outside and responded appropriately, ultimately winning his heat.

But let's talk about the rest of the men in his prelim.

Eliud Kipsang ran a collegiate record of 3:33 for 1500 meters earlier this season and looked like he was on top of the world. In a fast, all-out race, it would've been hard to imagine anyone taking him down when he was firing on all cylinders.

But Kipsang's performance at the SEC Championships left us with something to be desired. Plus, according to LetsRun's writing staff, Kipsang was apparently dealing with a few days of illness following his regional meet.

Even so, seeing the Alabama ace falter in this heat was a hard to see. Tactics have been a legitimate concern for Kipsang over the last two seasons and it looks like those concerns continue to hold at least some validity.

As for the automatic qualifiers in this field, it was the most patient athletes who were rewarded. Isaac Basten has a history of giving his Drake fans mini heart attacks thanks to his patented racing style of "sitting in dead last and then suddenly coming out of nowhere in the final straightaway to secure a top finish".

But here's the thing: The more he does it, the less concerned I become.

If tomorrow's race turns tactical, which could very easily happen with Kipsang and Essayi now out, then Basten could be one of the greatest beneficiaries in the field.

Luke Houser and Joe Waskom also advanced with great finishes of their own, giving the Huskies three men in the 1500 meter finals after Nathan Green also advanced out of the other heat.

Will the Washington men try to work together? If so, what is their ideal race scenario? All three men have looked great in high-pressure scenarios on the final straightaway this season, but is that their best towards a high result on Friday?

Also, John Petruno continues to be one of the most underrated mile/1500 meter runners in the country. His positioning has been incredible this season and he just seems to have so much control over his fitness. Petruno is a true veteran and has tons of sneaky-good momentum this spring.

He doesn't have the same raw fitness that a few of these other men do, but as long as the pace isn't out of his control, then he has a good chance of being an All-American.

Men's 3000 Meter Steeplechase

I'll admit, these prelims were much faster than I was expecting.

Don't get me wrong, I'm aware that some of the fastest steeplechase times in the NCAA are often run at the regional and national meets.

But in the prelims of the outdoor national meet?

Well, that just seemed unlikely in my eyes.

Even so, despite the crazy-fast times that we saw, I can't honestly say that there were a ton of surprises or notable, game-changing developments.

Coming into this meet, there were seven men who we felt confident were contenders for the national title. They are, in no particular order, Matthew Wilkinson (Minnesota), Alec Basten (Minnesota), Duncan Hamilton (Montana State), Parker Stokes (Georgetown), Ahmed Jaziri (Eastern Kentucky), Ryan Smeeton (Oklahoma State) and Ed Trippas (Princeton).

All of those men ran 8:30 or faster on Wednesday night.

Seeing Hamilton throw down an 8:23 mark is wildly impressive, although at first glance, I didn't totally understand it...until his post-race interview. There, Hamilton explained that he was trying to help his teammate, Levi Taylor, qualify for the finals after being the first man without an automatic qualifying spot in the first heat.

But honestly, even that reason didn't make total sense until Hamilton explained that the heat that runs the faster first half will often be slower overall.

While I'm not totally convinced what the numbers are to support that theory, it sounds right in my mind and at the end of the day, it worked.

The chase for the world standard was also an incentive for Hamilton.

On a recent episode of the Blue Oval Podcast, fellow co-host Ben Weisel asked whether or not I saw the winner of this race going over or under 8:23 in the finals. I said slower, mainly because no one had run that fast this spring and because the steeplechase is so variable, especially with barriers and water pits potentially tripping up certain men.

But after seeing so many men go under 8:30, and Hamilton being convinced that this race will be won under 8:20, I'm starting to realize that the bet Ben and I have right now is looking far more favorable for him rather than for me.

As for the rest of this field, there were a misses to the finals that could be classified as "surprises" but outside of eight or nine names, it's hard to say that anyone else was a lock to make the finals.

I was pretty convinced that Yasin Sado would advance to the finals given his consistency, great times and exposure to competitive fields this spring. But in retrospect, he probably needed a bit more firepower to contend with the top-end of this field.

Virginia Tech's Ben Fleming beat Sado earlier this season at the ACC Championships where he ran 8:31. That was an outstanding mark, but surprisingly, Kevin was the only one to project Fleming as an All-American. Maybe that's because the ACC has hurt us so many times before in our steeplechase predictions and because Fleming had only run under 8:40 once coming into the national meet.

Either way, he still had a great season and his overall resume looks like it has a lot of value in most middle and long distance events.

Men's 800 Meters

Welp, I said coming into this meet that this first 800 meter prelim was fairly unexciting and truthfully, I think I was right.

I'm happy to see Iowa State's Jason Gomez shake off any past challenges he's had with Hayward Field, but frankly, I think anyone in this could have been a top-two finisher and I wouldn't have been surprised.

It was encouraging to see Bizimana show tactical poise and great execution in the last few moments of this race. That composure will likely go a long way in the finals which, I predict, will be somewhat hectic.

And that's where the 800 meter finalists from the first heat end.

Then we have the second heat which, on paper, was the complete opposite of the first heat. This field was loaded with superstar names and underrated tactical standouts.

Despite the crazy amount of talent in this field, Moad Zahafi got the job done, as did Villanova's Sean Dolan.

The Stride Report has been high on Dolan over the last few weeks and he has certainly delivered on the grand expectations we've had for him this postseason (at least so far). He's been very consistent, has taken down some top-ranked names, has national meet experience in this distance and now, just recently, has posted a 1:46 PR.

All signs are pointing upwards for Dolan when it comes to the 800 meters. I was convinced that he was a miler, but he has blown away my expectations in the half-mile distance.

Now, out of the rest of this field, who would you have predicted to earn a time qualifier to the finals? Maybe Tim Zepf? How about Collin Ebling? Surely Baylor Franklin had to be the mix, right?

But none of those three men advanced to the finals on Friday. Instead, it was Arizona State's Dayton Carlson who stunned everyone by dropping a a 1:47 mark, a very small PR after also running a then-PR of 1:47 at the West Regional Championships.

Despite being a freshman, Carlson has massively surpassed expectations. His youth has clearly produced tons of upside and it is obvious going into these finals that he has yet to find his ceiling.

That's a good thing, because in a race that will likely be super fast, Carlson will almost certainly need a new PR to be competitive with the middle portion of this field. Luckily, his chances of doing exactly that are better than a few of the men in this race.

In the third heat, Anderson and Miller unsurprisingly went 1-2, but the fact that they pushed themselves to a pair of 1:45 and 1:46 marks, respectively, was impressive. That's a big deal for Anderson who just validated his 1:45 PR from the SEC Championships while Miller's performance shows us that he's at least back in the title conversation...maybe.

Miller also disclosed in his post-race interview that he was battling an illness at the SEC Championships.

We also have to give MAJOR props to Lipscomb's Jonathan Schwind who thrived in this fast prelim, running 1:46 and emerging as the first time qualifier for the finals.

Schwind has been so good and so underrated for a while now. He's an outstanding 1500 meter runner, but he has always had some untapped firepower in the 800 meters, which is easier to say now than before this season.

Schwind is also a terrific tactical runner who is great at positioning and responding to the rest of this field. The only thing that he was really missing was an elite PR that could contend with some of the faster men in this field.

But now, with a 1:46 PR, he has exactly that.

As for the rest of this field, it feels like we were robbed of seeing Ebling, Franklin, Zepf, Voelz, Fernandez, Herrmann and a few others. That, however, is just what happens when you have these highly concentrated preliminary fields.

We should also give major kudos to Samuel Rodman, the Princeton rookie who has continued to surpass expectations this year. He just ran 1:47 to advance to the finals out of, arguably, the best heat in this field.

But when you see how fast his prelim race was and you realize how much upside a rookie like him brings the table, it's not crazy to think that Rodman will continue to improve come Friday's race, especially if the race becomes as fast we think it will be.

Men's 10,000 Meters

Ah yes, the men's 10,000 meters.

Now, usually, I would offer a bunch in-depth analysis and talk about certain moves made throughout this race. But thanks to Athanas Kioko, there isn't nearly as much to talk about than one would expect.

That's because the Campbell star decided to hit the gas from the gun and just take this race out entirely on his own.

And when I say on his own, I mean completely on his own.

Kioko quickly opened up a massive 80 meter lead.

And then he held it.

For a while.

A long while.

Fast forward to six laps to go and the pack had caught up to Kioko. However, the Campbell runner wasn't necessarily swallowed up and tossed aside. Instead, he kept pace with the main group.

Nur ultimately took the lead with roughly three-ish laps to go, quickening the tempo and working to add some urgency to the race. He then hammered a big split on the second-to-last lap, but Jacobs continued to flank Nur while Oklahoma State's Alex Maier was a few strides back.

Meanwhile, Wildschutt, Kioko Hicks and Sprout were jockeying for position.

On the final lap, Jacobs tried to make a move past Nur on the back straight, but the Lumberjack refused entry, forcing Jacobs to delay his final move.

That, however, may have benefitted Jacobs more than anything. With 150 meters to go, Jacobs began to swing wide, ultimately passing Nur who was fading hard. By that point, it was game over. Jacobs had won, although there were was a very brief moment where I thought, "...Could Alex Maier actually get him?"

But he didn't.

In the end, Jacobs was your national champion.

Coming into this race, five TSR writers made their All-American predictions.

Every. Single. One. of our TSR writers predicted that Nur would be your national champion.

No one predicted Jacobs to be higher than 5th place.

But how could you blame us? Nur was going all-in for this event despite running 13:06 (5k) and 3:36 (1500) earlier this spring. And after winning two national titles at the indoor national meet, it was hard to think that anyone would be more dominant than Nur in this race.

Jacobs, meanwhile, had never run a 10k race on the track until this spring. This was only the third 10k race (on the track) of his entire career. That inexperience, paired with his inability to earn All-American honors at the indoor national meet, left some of us with understandable skepticism about whether or not Jacobs could win a national title.

Racing the 10k is kinda like playing with "Price Is Right" rules. The athlete who exhibits the most patience without going overboard will usually be rewarded.

And when you look at last night's race, that is essentially what happened.

Jacobs was never the one to make the first move.

He wasn't the early aggressor like Kioko was.

He wasn't the guy who closed the gap between the chase pack and Kioko.

He wasn't the first runner to separate himself from the lead pack in the final moments of the race.

He (arguably) wasn't the first one to truly begin his kick...although he was close.

In the end, Jacobs ran like a true veteran. He knew exactly what he was doing and it showed throughout the entirety of the race.

Oh, and he fell during the race, which only adds to the insanity of his win.

As for Maier, I have to give him credit. He was phenomenal after a season where we largely thought of him as an All-American afterthought. And when you really look at his resume, it's hard to really find any reason to dislike him!

Maier has been awesome all year, showing tremendous consistency, excellent range and tons of firepower. But shockingly, no one from TSR predicted him to be an All-American.

This is likely because Maier finished dead last at the NCAA Indoor Championships in the 5000 meters this past winter, forcing us to question if that was a fluke result or a real display of his racing acumen.

Obviously, it was the former.

As for Nur, this wasn't necessarily a poor performance, but this was a race that we fully expected him to win. The NAU superstar scratched the 5k for the 10k and I still don't know why he did it. Sure, I suppose he's running the 5k at the USA Championships two weeks from now, but would a shorter race run on this Friday instead of this Wednesday really have made that much of a difference?

Either way, if this was Nur's last NCAA race, and it seemingly might be, then he has been a true pleasure to watch.

As for the rest of this field...is anyone really surprised? The other five names who cracked the top-eight (All-American) in this race are all established names who have done enough to validate their talent throughout the year.

Hicks (6th) and Sprout (4th) have been absolutely incredible since the late portion of the indoor track season. Kioko (5th) is a true long distance stud who was capable of an All-American finish despite his aggressive pacing approach. On paper, the men in this field and the somewhat quicker times that we saw favored Wildschutt (7th) and his racing tendencies.

Oregon's Aaron Bienenfeld was the only name who none of our TSR writers predicted to be an All-American who was actually an All-American. But even then, seeing him earn top-eight honors isn't a total shock, you just don't always know what kind of race you're going to get from him on the national stage.

A few quick notes...

Amon Kemboi was arguably the most reliable All-American pick despite placing 10th, although it seems fair to say that the 5k is easily his best race.

I'm a bit bummed for Barry Keane. On paper, he was deserving of an All-American honor, but he still had a good race with a 9th place result.

I thought Victor Kiprop, Patrick Kiprop, James Mwaura, Casey Clinger and Acer Iverson would have thrived in a field that was pretty quick, but not overly so. Of course, how this race actually played out probably influenced their performances.

If had told me that this race was going to play out like it did, I would have said that Kieran Lumb was a lock for a top-three spot.

And I would have been wrong.