Double Trouble

Below analysis doesn't take into account results that were posted today (2/11) or this weekend.

We have just over one month to go until the NCAA D2 Indoor Track and Field Championships and it’s shaping up to be one of the most exciting meets contested in recent history, at least for the distance events. Not only that, but the pandemic has also altered the national meet schedule in a few key areas.

Although the national meet schedule change may seem insignificant to some, the new timing for certain events could impact the ability for top individuals to double (or triple) successfully, so much so that we may see some athletes drop an individual event in pursuit of running a successful DMR (or vice versa).

On day one, the altered schedule now gives athletes one hour and 45 minutes between the mile and the DMR, only 50 minutes between the 800 meters and the DMR and only 40 minutes between the 5k and the DMR.

On day two, the mile and the 800 meters are separated by just 40 minutes and there is only one hour between the mile and the 3k.

Now, that you have a better idea of what this meet might look like for some of these superior distance athletes, let’s get to the real conversation at hand: the potential doubles in D2.

The Never-Ending Options for Colorado Mines

Okay, there is a ton to break down here. The Orediggers have hosted two meets at Steinhauer Fieldhouse so far this winter and currently have nine top-10 marks in the NCAA. It’s hard to say which runner is the true leader of this team, but right now Dylan Ko and Luke Julian are two of the best overall distance talents in the country.

Julian has the ability to run three races at NCAA's if he (or his coaching staff) wants him to.

He just ran a 4:10 mile in Golden, Colorado on his home track which converts to a jaw-dropping NCAA #1 time of 3:58.94. The week prior to his stunning mile, Julian ran 8:22 for 3000 meters which now sits at NCAA #7 after converting to 7:58.97. With a DMR certainly in his future, this Colorado Mines star is set to have a busy weekend at the indoor national meet.

The point that we're trying to make is that Julian looks to be far stronger than your standard national qualifier and he’s got the advantage of his best distance (the mile) being the first distance event of the national meet.

Getting through the mile prelims and then anchoring a DMR later that afternoon is very reasonable. Coming back the next day and running his mile final also seems to be plenty realistic. However, the bigger concern would be Julian having only an hour between the mile finals and the 3000 meters on day two. Would he be able to pull that off? Or at least do it effectively? That 3k final would be his fourth race in just a little over 24 hours if he went all-in for the triple.

We can almost say for certain that Ko will be running the 5k and 3k double after these last two weekends. Much like Julian, Ko is currently sitting near the top of the D2 national leaderboard at NCAA #3 and NCAA #4 in the 5k and 3k, respectively.

His converted times of 13:53 and 7:57 are certainly going to be looked at with skepticism given the altitude and track conversions he received. Still, say what you will, Ko has been one of the most impressive runners over the last two years and his cross country results support that assertion.

We have every reason to believe that Ko is truly at that level of fitness. Nearly a full day’s rest between those two events should be more than enough time for him to be competitive in both races, so we don't need to worry about his prospects of doubling too much.

Kyle Moran is the third Oredigger who can make a splash in multiple events when it comes to the national meet. Honestly, you could argue that Moran is the best Oredigger runner after his performance of 14:27 for 5000 meters on his home track which gave him an NCAA #2 time of 13:46.54 (after conversion).

Like Ko, we can assume that we will see Moran in both the 5k and the 3k. A full day of rest is enough time for most distance runners and we should see Moran take advantage of that schedule without the mile or DMR to worry about.

There are plenty of other Mines athletes who are going to be attending the NCAA meet. Whether they will compete in two events is still not known, but the list of names seems to get longer every weekend.

Dillon Powell, for instance, currently holds two top-10 marks on the national leaderboard (one in the 5k another in the 3k). Loic Scomparin currently sits at NCAA #5 in the 3k (7:57). Vincent Workman has the NCAA #6 time in the mile (4:04). Teammates Max Sevcik and John O’Malley are just barely on the outside and are looking in for both the 5k and 3k.

The more we talk about Colorado Mines, the more it becomes clear that depth truly is king when it comes to distance running. The Orediggers will likely have multiple athletes doubling at the NCAA meet. Depending on how these races unfold and what Christian Noble decides to run, Moran, Ko and Julian could be in a position where one of them (potentially) wins a national title.

Celine Ritter & Chloe Flora: Best Positioned for the DMR?

These two seniors are looking to go out of the NCAA with a bang and they’ll have at least two, if not three, chances to take a crack at a top All-American finish (and dare I say a national title?) at the NCAA Indoor Championships come March.

Ritter posted the fastest mile in the country so far this season when she ran 4:44 just a couple of weeks ago. The following weekend, she ran 9:33 (3k) which is good enough for NCAA #4 on the national leaderboard.

Her teammate, Flora, currently sits at NCAA #6 in the 3000 meters and NCAA #3 in the 5000 meters. Her 9:39 was a six-second personal best and it indicates that she might be in closer shape to the 16:49 personal best that she ran during the 2019 outdoor season.

Both women are very capable of attempting their respective races at the NCAA meet in just a few weeks. The question, however, is whether these two will be required for Lee to field an elite DMR team?

Lee has the capability to field a top-ranked DMR team, and truthfully, they could be competitive with just one of these women on it. If they were to both run, Ritter would have nearly two hours between the mile and DMR (assuming she doesn’t attempt a 5k).

However, the decision is trickier for Flora who would have to potentially put aside individually glory in the 5k to truly go all-in for the DMR.

We don’t know what scenario best makes sense for this duo or for Coach Morgan, but if we had to take a guess, we think they will field a DMR team. That's a relay that could realistically contend with the likes of Grand Valley State and others and possibly win NCAA gold.

Speaking of the Lakers, let's transition to them...

The GVSU Dilemma: Tanner Chada and Isaac Harding

These two men have somehow flown under the radar despite posting some of the fastest times in the country. Based on times alone, Chada has seemingly surpassed his prior fitness from when he finished 3rd place at the 2019 outdoor national meet. Meanwhile, Harding has become one of the top distance talents in D2, seemingly becoming better than he once was at the University of Michigan.

Both men hold mile marks of 4:03 (currently listed at NCAA #4 and NCAA #5) with Harding recently running a time of 7:53 and Chada recently running a time of 7:56, good enough for NCAA #2 and NCAA #3.

To put those 3k times in perspective, Harding's and Chada’s marks now sit at NCAA #5 and NCAA #7 in the All-Conditions D2 Record Book. In fact, Harding's time would be ranked inside the top-10 of the NCAA at the D1 level while Chada's mark would be just on the cusp.

Neither of these men have yet to run a 5k this season, although given their current fitness and history of success in that event, we're confident that they'll toe the line for a 5k in the near future.

But wait, there's more! Harding and Chada could also put together the best DMR team in the country if teammate Dennis Mbuta rises to the level that we know he's capable of. That’d give the Lakers three (three!) 4:03 milers on the same team! On paper, that sounds like an NCAA title and a possibly an NCAA record as well.

Who knows if we will see these two run a fast 5k in the near future, but if they choose not to -- which would be surprising -- it’ll be clear where their priorities lie when it comes to the NCAA Indoor Championships.

However, if they do opt to chase a fast 5k time, then things get a lot more challenging to figure out.

The Lakers have the potential to put together a legendary DMR. However, this Grand Valley State roster still has a myriad of strong middle distance runners who could make the decision-making process for both Chada and Harding a bit easier.

But then what about the mile? It's possible that one of these guys attempts the mile/3k double while the other attempts the 5k/3k double. And who knows! Maybe one of them just goes "all-in" for the 3000 meters, staying fresh and not doubling in any other event.

The options are seemingly endless for a GVSU duo that will surely run more top qualifying marks as the season continues to progress.

Allie Ludge, Klaudia O’Malley & Hannah Roeske

Impressively, but also unsurprisingly, the Grand Valley State women currently boast three women capable of attempting a double at NCAA Indoor Championships in March. That, of course, could change in the near future (i.e. this weekend).

Allie Ludge appears to be trending back towards being her dominant self after running 9:28 in the 3000 meters earlier this season. Teammate Klaudia O’Malley just ran a 4:49 (mile) during her last time out, giving her the NCAA #2 time while Ludge sits at NCAA #3 (4:50.23) and teammate Hannah Roeske sits at NCAA #6 (4:50.77).

All three of these ladies are also currently in the top-five of the 3000 meters with marks under 9:40, making these three candidates all worthy of being a participant on the Lakers' DMR team if they so choose to.

Roeske holds a personal best of 16:47 in the 5k from her time at Wheaton (Ill.), leading us to believe that she may be even better than that following her two personal bests in a GVSU uniform. She feels like a prime candidate to double in the 5k/3k, especially since her mile speed would give her an advantage if any of those longer races turn tactical.

Meanwhile, O’Malley has yet to run a 5k in her career, essentially pitting her as part of that DMR team if Grand Valley chooses to field one (and they probably will). Of course, O’Malley did just set a personal best in the 3k by six seconds, so a fast 5k could be right around the corner in terms of her future racing plans.

Even so, that fact probably won't dissuade the Lakers from trying to include her in a future DMR. She’d be a good fit over 1200 meters and they just need to be close enough to their competitors for Ludge to have a chance on the anchor leg. On paper, O'Malley is the ideal relay piece.

As for Ludge, there’s no way of telling right now, but we think it’s safe to say that we will see her contest the mile, DMR and the 3k in her final indoor national meet. Her potential point scoring and ability to win numerous national titles is simply too good to pass up. She is equally dominant in almost every distance event and we think that a triple isn't out of the question for her later this season.

Ryan Riddle's Surprise Rise

Riddle has quietly become one of the best milers in D2. The Missouri Southern athlete currently sits at NCAA #3 on the national leaderboard with a recent mile time of 4:02. That’s the second-fastest raw time after Noble’s 4:00. A large part of why Riddle makes this list is because the Missouri Southern ace might be contesting the mile potentially three times.

It's possible that Riddle will run the mile at the beginning of day one before finishing his efforts a little less than two hours later in the DMR. In theory, he would then come back on day two in the mile as long as he qualifies for the final.

Let's also make no mistake about this, Riddle can (and probably will) rival Julian and/or Noble for the NCAA title in the mile in just a few weeks, assuming those two contest the event. He’s dropped six seconds in that event since last season and set another personal best at the 3k discipline, telling us his strength is continuing to improve at a rate that can make him competitive with even the fastest D2 milers.

Riddle will need to improve considerably if he wants to run the 3000 meters at the NCAA Championships, but his mind may already be made up as the Lions currently sit at NCAA #2 in the DMR and own the fastest raw time on the season.

The amount of time between the mile and DMR certainly works in Riddle's favor as he would be able to give a max effort in both races. Being able to go all-in for both races likely means qualifying for the final, as well as keeping Missouri Southern in the mix for the DMR crown.

Then again, with the men's mile expected to be so top-heavy this year, there is potential that Riddle would want to be completely fresh for the mile finals on day two. But would he really set aside the DMR? It's tough to know with absolute certainly, but that is something to consider.

Zoe Baker's Recent 5k Means She'll Probably Run in the 3k

The emerging Oredigger star has been rewriting her school's history books since last fall and that has continued into this winter season. She ran 17:16 for 5000 meters earlier this season and that converted to a mark of 16:33, the NCAA #1 time thus far. She has also run 5:02 which earned a conversion of 4:50.

Not only that, but Baker also owns a personal best of 10:00 in the 3k, but her 17:16 at altitude tells us that she is already past that level of fitness in 2021.

There have not been many fast 5k times so far this indoor season, and while we expect that to change, Baker is currently the favorite to take home the 5k title if it was contested this weekend. And frankly, even after multiple women run the 5k later this season, Baker still might emerge as a national title favorite.

There’s also a good chance that Baker will run a 3k at the next Colorado Mines meet, and with that result, things may become a bit more clear as to what she will focus on at the indoor national meet. Given her success in cross country and past races, we would have to guess that the 5k/3k double is eventually in her future.

To be frank, the Orediggers need Baker to be the anchor of their DMR team if they want to be competitive this winter. The question, however, is whether or not the Mines coaching staff believes they have a better shot at winning a DMR title or a 5k title?

In our opinion, it's probably the latter.

The Guy Who Could Decide NCAA Titles for Everyone Else Depending On What He Doesn't Enter

The question surrounding Lee's Christian Noble at this point isn’t whether or not he can win an NCAA title, but more so, how many NCAA titles will he win by the time this year finishes? He could very easily come away with three gold medals by the time March 13th has concluded.

Despite Luke Julian having a faster converted time, Noble looks to be the national title favorite in the mile given that his 4:00 is an unconverted mark. If Lee decides to field a DMR team, Noble will no doubt be the anchor on that relay.

The only race in question for the national meet is the 5000 meters. His 13:37 is nine seconds faster than the next best overall time (Moran, 13:46) and it’s 21 seconds faster than the next best raw time (Austin Nolan, 13:58). Meanwhile, his 3k mark is just two seconds clear of Isaac Harding’s 7:53 effort.

There is simply no way that Noble can effectively run the mile, 5k, DMR and 3k in the same weekend. The shortened schedule has made this so much harder than it already was in the past. The decision has to be made between the DMR and the 5k, and with the Gulf South Conference Championships on the horizon, we might have that answer sooner rather than later.

No matter the route Noble picks, it’s not going to be easy. He’ll have the entire NCAA field looking to take him down as he tries to cement himself as the greatest distance runner in D2 history. If there’s an athlete that we’d bet on for multiple indoor titles, it’s most certainly Noble.