Digits: Draft Stats for Nats (Part 2)

Just like on the men’s side, it is time to review how the TSR Draft for the women went and predict who might be best set up for the NCAA meet. However, the women’s draft did bring up one major issue that the men’s draft did not – redshirting.

9 of the 36 athletes picked ended up either redshirting the season, not competing at all, or going pro. Since this had such an effect on the draft, we allowed each TSR writer with an effected athlete to take one compensation pick.

Those compensation picks were...

Sam - Hannah Meier (Michigan)

Ben - Lauren Gregory (Arkansas)

Sean - Erica Birk (BYU)

Elliott - Kristie Schoffield (Boise State)

Zach - Nia Akins (Penn)

Garrett - Allie Wilson (Monmouth)

Michael - Did not earn a pick. All athletes competed and qualified.

These picks were made before the NCAA accepted athletes lists were posted, so they were based on positions in the descending order lists, not the scratches/declarations. Feel free to tweet us or comment for our rationale on those picks. These athletes will contribute to the teams just like any other athlete, so let’s get started on the team evaluations.

Ben’s Team

Weini Kelati - Qualified in the 3K (#3) and the 5K (#2)

Sammy Watson - Went Pro

Susan Ejore - Qualified in the Mile (#8) and the DMR (#7)

Katherine Receveur - Qualified in the DMR (#6)

Abike Egbeniyi - Qualified in the 800 (#6)

Whittni Orton - Qualified in the Mile (#15) and the DMR (#4)

(Compensation Pick) Lauren Gregory - Qualified in the Mile (#3), the 3K (#6) and the DMR (#5)

Total Scoring Opportunities: 11

Projected Score: 30.75

Maximum Potential Score: 69.25

Ben’s team was the favorite at the midway point and it was clear why. One of those reasons was due to the absolute dominance of Weini Kelati who has demolished almost every race she has been a part of. She has even excelled in the 1200 and mile as she ran those events at the Mountain West Conferences and set blistering times. No one should be leaving races up to a kick with her in the field.

Being able to add Lauren Gregory in the Mile/3K/DMR triple will also add a ton of impact to Ben’s team. It’s unclear if Gregory will appear in the DMR, but there’s so much potential for Gregory to have an incredible meet.

The DMR potential from Ejore, Receveur, and Orton should provide Ben a solid array of points at the end of day one as well. It won’t be many due to the scoring policy of the relay, but with three athletes, they should make a positive impact on the standings. Abike Egbeniyi will also make a splash in the 800. She is not the most consistent, so she will either shine brightly or miss out on the final. No one knows which until then.

Ben’s team just has too much firepower over all events to be anything less than the favorite.

Zach’s Team

Allie Ostrander - Qualified in the 3K (#4), the 5K (#4), and the DMR (#3)

Sharon Lokedi - Qualified in the 5K (#3) and the DMR (#8)

Fiona O’Keeffe - Qualified in the 3K (#8) and the 5K (#13)

Sage Hurta - Did not compete

Jaci Smith - Qualified in the 3K (#12) and the 5K (#7)

Aubrey Roberts - Qualified in the 5K (#8)

(Compensation Pick) Nia Akins - Qualified in the 800 (#10)

Total Scoring Opportunities: 11

Projected Score: 21.75

Maximum Potential Score: 71.5

This team relies on a ton of strength in the 5K and the 3K. Gaining so many athletes here makes it almost impossible not to score some points in those events, especially with Allie Ostrander taking the lead with Sharon Lokedi in the 5K. Those two are now in the NCAA All-Time Top 10. Jaci Smith and Fiona O’Keeffe will also be trying to score in both events, but are borderline scoring contenders. Neither should be expected for too many points. Zach should be hoping for a handful combined from that duo. Aubrey Roberts will also be counted upon to bolster the point total after she dropped a fast time at BU in December.

In Zach’s only middle distance event, Nia Akins will be aiming to make the final in the 800. She will be in a tough battle with such a deep field in that event. Lokedi and Ostrander may also score a couple of points in the DMR, but with the 5K minutes before, it will be interesting to see whether either athlete will appear to help their teams make it to the medal podium. Zach will need to hope they do.

Michael’s Team

Elly Henes - Qualified in the 3K (#13) and the 5K (#10)

Katie Rainsberger - Qualified in the Mile (#10), the 3K (#15) and the DMR (#12)

Alicia Monson - Qualified in the 3K (#1) and the 5K (#11)

Dorcas Wasike - Qualified in the 5K (#5)

Nicole Hutchinson - Qualified in the 3K (#5) and the DMR (#10)

Carina Viljoen - Qualified in the Mile (#6) and the DMR (#5)

(Compensation Pick) - None

Total Scoring Opportunities: 12

Projected Score: 22

Maximum Potential Score: 72

Michael clearly established the most opportunities of any team and had the best original draft since he did not have to claim a compensation pick. There’s no weak link in the qualified athletes either, although Henes and Rainsberger are not expected to score based on their seed times. Being able to pick up Alicia Monson in the 3rd round of the draft was a huge steal and could bring Michael 20 points if she can translate her 3K form into the 5K the night before.

Carina Viljoen and Nicole Hutchinson are the other two main pieces for Michael, owning DMR and individual potential. Since Lauren Gregory is going to attempt the 3K/mile double, Viljoen will likely step into the DMR to relieve a little stress and team up with Taylor Werner for Arkansas. Hutchinson will be fresh for the DMR and should attempt to spoil some of the more star-studded teams with a very deep Villanova squad. Both could also surprise with top three finishes in their individual events if some of the XC-focused runners get caught napping in the at the end of the long distance races.

The best part of Michael’s team is that there is no weak spot. Every athlete can score major points and will be expecting to reach the podium. If you had to find a weakness, it would be the lack of an 800m runner, but the depth in the 3K and 5K does more than enough to overcome that.

Elliott’s Team

Jessica Hull - Qualified in the 3K (#2) and the DMR (#7)

Charlotte Prouse - Qualified in the 3K (#10) and the 5K (#6)

Erin Finn - Did not compete

Aaliyah Miller - Did not qualify

Lauren Larocco - Qualified in the 5K (#9)

Adva Cohen - Did not qualify

(Compensation Pick) Kristie Schoffield - Qualified in the 800 (#8) and the DMR (#3)

Total Scoring Opportunities: 7

Projected Score: 14

Maximum Potential Score: 50.5

Elliott’s team does not necessarily have the projected point total to establish himself as a major challenger, but has a number of good opportunities. The main question will be what kind of shape Charlotte Prouse and Lauren Larocco are in. Both set their 5K qualifiers in December, while Prouse also qualified in the 3K last weekend. These two women will need to score in order to push Elliott out of the bottom of the group.

The addition of Kristie Schoffield should be a big boost as she will pick up a point or two in each the 800 and DMR. However, it's Jessica Hull wh obviously holds all the cards for Elliott. Should the Oregon star not earn a top three finish, Elliott may struggle to break into double digits.

Sean’s Team

Ednah Kurgat - Qualified in the 3K (#9) and the 5K (#1)

Christina Aragon - Did not compete

Caitlin Collier - Did not qualify

Anna Rohrer - Did not compete

Kamryn McIntosh - Did not qualify

Kaylee Dodd - Qualified in the DMR (#2)

(Compensation Pick) Erica Birk - Qualified in the 3K (#10) and the DMR (#4)

Total Scoring Opportunities: 5

Projected Score: 13.25

Maximum Potential Score: 32.5

Sean’s team is in deep trouble after so many of his original athletes did not compete or qualify. He will be relying on Ednah Kurgat for almost all of his points. If you had to rely on one athlete though, Kurgat is a pretty good choice as she set the NCAA #3 All-Time 5K in December. Kurgat has not been quite at her top form this winter, but she has shown that she is still a threat at the 5K and 3K.

Erica Birk will carry the rest of the team with an outside shot at the 3K title since so many athletes will be doubling from the 5K. Birk and Dodd have opportunities at some points in the DMR too, but even phenomenal races may leave Sean left behind the field and in last place in the draft.

Garrett’s Team

Danae Rivers - Qualified in the 800 (#3)

Rachel Pocratsky - Qualified in the 800 (#4) and the DMR (#11)

Millie Paladino - Qualified in the Mile (#5)

Makena Morley - Qualified in the 3K (#14) and the 5K (#14)

Laurie Barton - Did not compete

Rachel McArthur - Qualified in the DMR (#10)

(Compensation Pick) Allie Wilson - Qualified in the 800 (#2)

Total Scoring Opportunities: 8

Projected Score: 23

Maximum Potential Score: 58

Garrett’s team has a lot of opportunities to score, but centers on a very strong 800 meter core. Rivers, Pocratsky, and Wilson could very well pull 1-2-3 in that event and earn Garrett 24 points. However, two of them will be the same heat as each other and there’s a high probability that they could cancel out each other out or even knock one of the three out of the final. Rivers is probably the favorite of the three since she set the 1000 meter NCAA record earlier in the season, but all three could come away with the win.

Millie Paladino returns to the mile after qualifying in 2018. Paladino is being looked over as a favorite behind Hannah Meier, Karisa Nelson, and the pair from Arkansas, but should certainly be a factor as the race comes to the wire.

Makena Morley could make or break Garrett’s team though; Morley has shown ability to enter the top 8 in cross country, but has not done that (yet) on the track.

Sam’s Team

Dani Jones - Did not compete

Lilli Burdon - Qualified in the DMR (#12)

Jazmine Fray - Qualified in the 800 (#13)

Katrina Robinson - Did not compete

Ruby Stauber - Did not compete

Sinclaire Johnson - Qualified in the DMR (#2)

(Compensation Pick) Hannah Meier - Qualified in the Mile (#1) and the DMR (#1)

Total Scoring Opportunities: 5

Projected Score: 14.5

Maximum Potential Score: 26

Sam’s draft was really hindered by how many athletes just did not compete at all over the season. Losing Dani Jones crushed his team and having to take the losses of Robinson and Stauber certainly did not help. Johnson also hurt Sam’s team by opting out of all the individual events to pursue the DMR title since she can only earn ¼ points for Sam there. Compensation pick Hannah Meier will have to carry Sam’s team on her back in order to move Sam out of last place in this draft.

Jazmine Fray will need to bust out another sub-2:03 effort as well since she’s only run 2:05 this year. Sam got unlucky, hopefully for him, he can pull just a little bit closer to the field.