Bryan Clay Preview

Who are you most excited to watch?

Ben: I’m going to go off the radar and say Alabama’s Noel Rotich. The freshman had an uneventful indoor season, but has started the season strong by running 14:03 for 5000 meters. In his first race in his best event (the 3k steeple), I am excited to see if he can vault himself into the top class of steeplerchasers by running with guys like Matt Owens and Emmanuel Rotich. He owns a 8:52 PR in the steeplechase according to the IAAF which was likely run at altitude, so he definitely has the talent to compete with anyone in the NCAA. Additionally, Alabama's website says Rotich has run 8:32, but we can't find any results to support that.

Garrett: On the men’s side, I’m super pumped to see Yared Nuguse racing his best event against top-caliber talent. We know he’s talented as evident by his 3:57 mile performance from indoors, but we haven’t seen him battle against elite competition...until now.

Michael: I’m excited to see what Rory Linkletter can do in the 5k after racing World XC. After reading Sam Ivanecky’s interview with Rory, it’s clear that he has lofty goals for this outdoor season and I’m interested to see what he can do to kick it off. I’m excited to see what Cole Rockhold can do in the 5k as well.

Garrett: As for the women, I'm watching Erica Birk as she makes her season debut in the steeplechase. How she does this weekend could drastically alter what she ends up running at Nationals. She’s an under-the-radar threat to win the national title in numerous events and could end up running the #1 time in the country when she finishes her business at Bryan Clay. Don’t be surprised if she runs 9:45 this week...

Ben: I’m excited to see what Whittni Orton does in the 1500 racing against pros like Alexa Efraimson as well as top NCAA contenders like Alexis Fuller. She’s been off to a hot start running 4:15 and finishing 2nd at Stanford. She also recently ran a PR in the 800 of 2:06. This could cement her status as a favorite in the women’s 1500.

Michael: I’m excited to see Allie Ostrander race in the 5k. She had a rather underwhelming performance at Indoor Nationals, placing 4th in the 3k and 8th in the 5k. Both events were incredibly deep, but I think she is capable of more. She’s an easy favorite when it comes to the steeplechase, but racing against Weini Kelati and Caroline Kurgat at 5000 meters won’t be an easy task.

Finish the sentence: _____ will have a breakout race

Ben: Yared Nuguse. We finally get a chance to watch the DMR star run in a 1500/mile against some of the best in the country. Racing against 1500 favorite Oliver Hoare, mile champion Geordie Beamish, Carlos Villarreal, Waleed Suliman, and Sam Worley, Nuguse will prove that he should be considered as a national title favorite in his best event. The field is incredibly stacked and should provide a national preview for the 1500. Like he rose to the big stage during indoors, Nuguse will shine at Bryan Clay.

Michael: Paul Hogan of UMass Lowell. He’s a 13:46 guy which already puts him in the elite category, but I think he can go faster and put himself in the All-American conversation early in the season. Hogan has run PR's in every event he has contested this year (including the 5k) and I think he can keep this momentum going.

Garrett: Elias Gedyon. I’ll make things interesting and say that he is going to run something very fast. We’ve already seen him post some strong times and record numerous wins, but this guy is due for a big performance. The Adams State veteran may be able to inch near (or under) the 3:40 mark this weekend.

Michael: Charlotte Prouse is seeded in the second section of the 5k which seems a bit odd to me. I think she will dominate her race and prove that she is not only an elite steeplechaser, but that she has the ability to run with the nation’s best in the 5k as well.

Ben: For the women, I am going with Lauren Gregory. The freshman has yet to run a 5k on the track for Arkansas, but that is set to change this weekend. She will have the perfect opportunity to run a quick time and mold herself into a national contender for the 5k if she chooses that event later this season.

Garrett: I'll take Maudie Skyring on the women's side. The Florida State sophomore is one of the better distance runners in an already crowded conference of talent (the ACC). She just posted an impressive 4:18/2:10 double at Alabama and walked away with wins in both of those races. Don’t be surprised if you see her run something along the lines of 4:13 or 4:14.

Over/Under 13:30 as the top collegiate time in the men’s 5k

Ben: Under. Joe Klecker has to be the favorite in a loaded field, and I think he will be the one to dip under 13:30. The BYU boys of Clayton Young, Connor McMillan, and Rory Linkletter should all be competitive as well as Vincent Kiprop. A dark horse will be Gilbert Boit who just missed qualifying for Indoor Nationals, but ran well at SEC’s where he beat Kiprop. Lastly, I would feel more confident in my "under" pick if Morgan McDonald wasn’t in the second heat for some reason...

Michael: Under. I agree with Ben that Klecker looks like the favorite, but it’s close. The BYU and Alabama squads will be hungry and won’t let him get an easy win. This should result in some pace-pushing throughout the race as the field chases the NCAA lead.

Garrett: Over. Here comes the stats nerd. Not since 2014 have we seen a collegiate run under 13:30 in a meet other than Payton Jordan. Yes, I know this field is more than capable of producing something faster than that, but I’m not sure it’s going to happen at Bryan Clay. These guys are exceptionally talented, but I need to side with history on this one...I just hope history is wrong.

Over/Under 15:20 as the top collegiate time in the women’s 5k

Ben: Under. Two women in the field, Kelati and Ostrander, have run under 15:20 already this year, and I would be surprised if they didn’t push each other to another fast time. Plus, Caroline Kurgat will make her presence felt and could beat both of them on her way to a big PR.

Michael: Under. The star power up front will make this one of the best 5k’s of the season and I don’t think these ladies will disappoint. Caroline Kurgat was the top collegiate at this meet last year, and I imagine the pace will be hot as she tries to establish herself as the best across all three divisions. Ostrander and Kelati won’t make it easy for her, though.

Garrett: Under. When you have Kelati, Ostrander, and Caroline Kurgat in the same field, things are going to be quick. That said, 15:20 is a faster mark than I think some of us realize...maybe it’s because we saw four women break that barrier back in December. Regardless, if the pace is honest from the start, then at least one person will go under that mark.

Who needs to make the biggest statement this weekend?

Michael: Oliver Hoare. After faltering at Indoor Nationals, Hoare needs to prove that he should still be the favorite in the 1500 this spring and that he can defend his title.

Ben: I definitely feel the same as Michael. Hoare is the favorite, but I would feel a lot better about his status if he took down this loaded field. Another person who needs to make a big statement in the 1500 is Geordie Beamish. You might ask, "Why does he need to make a statement after winning the mile national title during indoors?" and that would be a fair question. In my mind, he needs to make a statement to prove that the mile win wasn’t a fluke and that he should be considered as one of the favorites in the 1500 meters come June.

Garrett: I’m looking at Cole Rockhold here. The Colorado State star sustained an injury during cross country and limped his way through the postseason during indoors. He’s improving with each passing week as he regains fitness, and his 13:53 from the Stanford Invite was an encouraging step in the right direction. That said, I want to see him return to top form this weekend. He’s talented enough to be back in the 13:40’s in a field that will surely make things fast.

Ben: Another runner who could make a big statement this weekend is Ednah Kurgat who hasn’t been in the best form since she ran that fantastic indoor 5k in December. She was 7th at Stanford in the 10k which was underwhelming for someone like herself. Entered in the 1500, the lady Lobo could silence a lot of doubters by running well in her weaker event.

Michael: I think Taryn Rawlings of Portland could make a big statement in the 1500. She has run 4:11 before which makes her one of the fastest women in the NCAA. She has the potential to go after a 1500 title in a couple months and this is a great chance for her to show that she belongs in that conversation.

Garrett: I’m going to side with Ben on this one. Ednah Kurgat just hasn’t had the same spark that we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from her throughout her collegiate career. That’s not to say that she’s been running poorly, but I’m not sure how many people still view Kurgat as a legitimate title threat nowadays. That said, I think the 1500 is a refreshing change in event choice and if she runs well enough, it could boost her confidence as we head into the second half of the season.