Bonus Content: Evaluating Contenders in the Women's 3000 Meters

Ah yes, the virtues of the humble 3000 meter race.

Year after year, this event remains as one of the most exciting and most unpredictable distance battles at the NCAA Indoor Championships.

Could a 10,000 meter runner drop down in distance and win the race?

Ask Molly Seidel.

Could a miler move up in distance to take home gold?

Dani Jones might agree.

Will it be fast from the front? Could we see a tactical affair unfold? Will there be surges midway through the race? Who is going to make the first major move?

These are all questions that factor into the strategy of the 3000 meters.

However, it's not just the versatile nature of this race that promises to make this year’s 3k competition one for the books. Across the board, the 2022 track season has produced a slew of jaw-dropping times at every level of distance running, and the 3000 meters was no exception.

In the 2021 season, Courtney Wayment of BYU was the lone collegiate racer (excluding unattached racers like Anna Camp) to run under 8:55 for this near-two mile distance.

But in 2022, we have seen NINE women go under that same mark.

This year’s 3000 meter field, specifically on the women's side, boasts a contingent of experienced champions, numerous breakout stars building on the best seasons of their lives and young runners stepping into the most competitive race of their careers.

Many of the women in this field carry with them legitimate 800 meter and 1500 meter marks that could allow them to blaze past their competition in a sit-and-kick affair.

However, a few others have high-level championship experience and enough penchant for bold front-running that there may be little chance to catch them if they choose to push the pace as soon as the gun goes off.

So, without further ado, we broke down the top contenders for this year’s women's 3k title...

Courtney Wayment (BYU)

Wayment enters the 2022 NCAA Indoor Championships as the defending champion in this event, holding the second-fastest collegiate 3000 meter mark this year and a top-10 result in the NCAA all-time record books with her 8:50.05 from the Millrose Games back in January.

On paper, Wayment looks to be the class of the field, boasting a varied range of elite times from 15:15.46 (5k), which shows us her high-level aerobic capacity, to a solid 2:05 effort for 800 meters which could give her an extra boost her in a final kick.

Wayment's PR this year is nearly 11 seconds faster than the time that earned her gold in the 3000 meters last winter. Not only that, but she has held her own against multiple professional runners in everything from the Millrose Games to the Olympic Trials, showcasing that she has the aerobic finesse and the raw fitness to duke it out in a championship-style race.

However, Wayment is not invincible.

In a few key races, such as the NCAA Outdoor Championships, she faltered in the final 100 meters of the steeplechase after an awkward clearance of the final water pit. She ended up finishing 4th in that race which she was highly favored to win.

But if you remove obstacles from the track, then there becomes far less variability and fewer ways that Wayment could lose.

However, if this 3k race evolves into an all-out, aggressively-paced affair, then Wayment may not be able to simply outrun this field. That's because other women, specifically Lauren Ryan, have proven that they can stick with ultra-fast paces of their own...

Lauren Ryan (Florida State)

Ryan, quite frankly, was a stunner.

Prior to this 2022 track season, the Florida State transfer from Villanova had a couple of respectable personal bests to her name and was mixing it up with the nation's top collegiates when it counted the most. Her 26th place All-American finish at this year’s NCAA XC Championships is a good example.

It also didn't hurt that Ryan posted marks of 4:34 (mile), 8:54 (3k) and 15:22 (5k) on the outdoor track in Australia during the pandemic. However, for as good as those marks were, what she did this winter still took us by surprise.

At the 2022 Boston University Valentine Invite, Ryan toed the line against a field of pro and collegiate runners and stormed to a 2nd place finish in a jaw-dropping time of 8:47.88. As a result, we were forced to reevaluate where this Seminole star stands in the NCAA's hierarchy of distance talents.

In terms of what may happens at the NCAA Indoor Championships, Ryan feels like a bit of a wild card.

Her one (and maybe only) weakness could be her inexperience as she has never actually competed at the indoor national meet. After all, Ryan was "only" the 3rd place finisher at the ACC Indoor Championships in the mile a few weeks ago, running a time of 4:37 and eventually opting not to contest the 3000 meters as originally planned.

But while it is true that this Aussie superstar has little national meet experience on the track, will that even matter when you consider how fast her seed time is?

If Ryan chooses to lead from wire-to-wire, experience may not matter. She could very well gap the field before they even hit the bell lap which, admittedly, would be a surprise, especially for someone who has the mile speed that she does.

Regardless, Lauren Ryan’s path to victory will likely be determined by how she rises to the occasion of her first title contention, and truthfully, I don’t think she’ll disappoint.

Ceili McCabe (West VIrginia)

Ceili McCabe is one of those runners who has been lurking in the upper-echelons of collegiate running for a few seasons now, but has just now rocketed into the national spotlight that she deserves over the last six months.

Signs of promise began last spring when McCabe was a finalist at last year’s NCAA Outdoor Championships in the steeplechase where she placed 6th overall in a time of 9:37.

The Canadian distance runner exploded onto national prominence when she won the Wisconsin Nuttycombe Invitational and followed that up with a very impressive 3rd place finish in one of the fastest-ever races in NCAA cross country history.

McCabe ended 2021 by running a sensational mark of 8:52 (3k) at the Boston University Season Opener to slot into the NCAA #3 mark for this indoor season.

Although McCabe vanished from competition for a period shortly afterwards, she popped back up at the BIG 12 Indoor Championships with a solid 4:38 mile for 3rd place after a 4:37 anchor split on West Virginia's DMR.

It could be debated that the title of “rising star” isn’t quite right for McCabe as she has been performing at a high level consistently for the last few seasons. It’s just that now, she has finally been able to shine this year.

McCabe has shown in her victory at Nuttycombe and in her placing at the NCAA XC Championships that she can thrive off of a controlled sit and surge. She presented a high level of tactical finesse when racing in both of those occasions as she got off the line in a smart position, never attempted to take control of the lead prematurely and quietly stalked the field until the final stages of each race.

This style of racing could play into her hands at the NCAA Indoor Championships when the tightly bunched lead and chase packs riding the rails provide an extra layer of difficulty. Don't forget about last year when NC State's Elly Henes took a nasty tumble with a few hundred meters left in the race, taking her out of title contention.

McCabe’s ability to not only throw down times to match the upper-portion of this championship field, but skillfully maneuver within these races, makes her a considerable title threat, even if she has raced only sparingly this year.

Mercy Chelangat (Alabama)

This is a runner who rightfully deserves the title of “established NCAA star”.

Chelangat is coming into this race fresh off of podium-packed seasons in 2021 which included an individual win in the NCAA Winter XC Championships, a runner-up result in the 10k and a 5th place finish in the 5k at the outdoor national meet, and then a silver-medal result at the NCAA XC Championships this past fall.

Make no mistake, Chelangat comes to compete every. single. time.

Chelangat's current indoor season has gone rather smoothly as she earned a solid mark of 15:34 (5k) at the Samford Invite back in January. However, that time was well-off her 15:17 personal best and it was a time that most fans who are familiar with her resume were expecting.

Instead, her real momentum lies in the excellent 8:53 mark that she recently threw down at the Boston University Valentine Invite. In that race, she finished as second-best collegiate to Florida State's Lauren Ryan.

Chelangat can be somewhat of a mystery on the NCAA Championship stages, because although you know that she will be a top finisher, you're never quite sure if the race will play out perfectly in her favor.

In cross country, she was untouchable at the NCAA Winter XC Championships, torching the field with a kilometer to go and cruising home.

At the 2021 edition of the cross country national meet in the fall, Chelangat picked up her silver medal without much fanfare, and ran a smart race that had her in contention with 800 meters to go, but ultimately faltered to Whittni Orton’s devastating kick.

At the same time, even though Chelangat has an exceptional, title-contending resume, her past races have sometimes left something to be desired (although they have been far from bad).

Despite going into the NCAA Outdoor Championships as a title favorite in both the 10k and the 5k, she walked away zero gold medals despite making a move in the 10k that seemed to suit her strengths as a front-runner.

For Chelangat to win, she needs to make an aggressive move early in this race and take an approach like she did in the NCAA Winter XC Championships, grinding away with over a half mile to go until she had separated herself convincingly. A sprint kick will likely not play in her favor.

It is not at all unreasonable to think that Chelangat can take home the national title this weekend. It’s not even unlikely. However, that possibility will depend on how willing she is to dictate the race on her own terms, even in a race that requires plenty of turnover, and no one can choose to do that except the Alabama ace herself.

Lauren Gregory (Arkansas)

If anyone is going to be out for blood at the NCAA Indoor Championships, it’s Gregory.

The Arkansas veteran has continued a momentous streak of superb times, high-level wins and all-around consistency which makes her a title favorite for the 3000 meters once more.

Last year, she was overpowered by Wayment at the line, but only barely.

This year? Well, things could change.

Gregory has come back from a wildly successful NCAA XC Championship appearance where she finished 19th overall. Over the last few months, the Arkansas star has posted a slew of stellar personal bests in nearly every event around the indoor oval.

She ripped a time of 15:34 for 5000 meters at the Woo Pig Classic, followed that up with a really nice split on the Arkansas' nation-leading DMR, then topped it off with a fantastic double PR in the mile (4:32.67) and the 3000 meters (8:53.77) at the Husky Classic.

Quite frankly, Gregory is on a roll and the momentum that she is building this winter could bode extremely well for her championship race schedule.

Gregory’s strength lies in her ability to pull off successful doubles and race at a high level in terms of the tactics, positioning and patience needed to win most of these tactical affairs against elite competition.

Gregory's mile PR is the fifth-best in the NCAA right now and aside from Emily MacKay, no other collegiate 3k runner has been able to match her this year in terms of raw mile speed.

At the SEC Indoor Championships, Gregory pulled off a points-heavy double by placing runner-up in the mile to Vissa (via a mark of 4:35) and earning a win in the 3000 meters (via a mark of 8:59), flexing her impressive doubling abilities once more.

Gregory is clearly comfortable with the 3000 meters, and frankly, if she had been able to get an additional stride or two on Wayment last year, then she would be the defending champion and we would be talking about her differently.

This Arkansas star has plenty of long distance firepower power and her nearly-unmatchable speed allows her to adjust to her competitor’s various racing styles.

Couple that tactical acumen with her experience and it's hard to imagine a scenario where she runs poorly this weekend. In theory, Gregory could benefit from being able to play both the hunter and the striker, whether that be in a sprint finish with 200 meters to go or even with over 600 meters left.

Is a sit-and-kick approach an entirely airtight plan with athletes like Wayment, Mackay, Ryan and a few others in the field? Perhaps not. However, if anyone would be able to pull off the upset in that fashion, then it would be someone with a chip on her shoulder who knows better than anyone how her competition will approach this race.

And Lauren Gregory comes to mind.

Taylor Roe (Oklahoma State)

Taylor Roe is another one of the NCAA’s most prominent stars.

After chalking up two top-five finishes in a row at the NCAA XC Championships, she added to her momentum this indoor season by rebuking her usual label as a long distance specialist, throwing down exceptional mile and 3000 meter times which, coupled with her championship experience, makes her a dangerous contender.

Roe started off this indoor season with an outstanding 8:58.58 mark at the Woo Pig Classic, routing the field and winning by over seven seconds. However, the Oklahoma State star wasn’t even close to getting done. Later in the season, she returned to Arkansas’ track for the Razorback Invitational and won the mile over Lauren Gregory in a stunning time of 4:34.

Not bad for someone is known as a cross country runner.

She then put up a 2:09 mark for 800 meters at the Husky Classic and later ran to victory at the BIG 12 Championships with wins in the DMR, the 3000 meters and the mile. That victory in the mile included a shiny new PR of 4:33, a legitimate result which qualified her for the indoor national meet in the event.

Roe elected to scratch from the mile at the NCAA Indoor Championships which makes her a single-race contender for the 3000 meters, something that few women in this field can match in terms of freshness.

Putting all of your eggs in one basket like this is admittedly a risk, but Roe is entering this race emboldened by her newfound middle distance speed and her growing championship experience. On paper, her odds at a title go up a fair amount based on the fact that her 3000 meter PR, while not as fast as some of the top seed times, is boosted by a top-seeded mile mark and completely fresh legs.

Roe has been able to build steadily on her excellent cross country endurance and prove that she holds a more ferocious finishing gear than most would have assumed that she had. She is knowledgeable on how to play the field right and when to make her moves.

Her win over Lauren Gregory in that aforementioned mile race is a beautiful example of that.

Can Taylor Roe’s gamble to go all-in for the 3000 meters pay off? Will her fresh legs give her a better chance to possibly notch a personal best and out-last the field should the race go hard from the gun?

Giving up a possible All-American bid in the mile just to focus on the 3000 meters means that Roe is plenty happy to bet on herself.

Emily Mackay (Binghamton)

Emily Mackay is the "jack of all trades" when it comes to the NCAA indoor circuit.

The Binghamton runner is capping off an indoor track season where she couldn’t be denied, shattering her personal bests in nearly every event and wedging her name into the upper ranks of almost every distance even on the track.

Mackay is arguably the most versatile distance runner in the NCAA at this exact moment and because of that, she'll be looking for her first national title this weekend.

After a brave effort at the NCAA XC Championships where she finished 52nd, Mackay turned to the track and hasn’t stopped tearing up the indoor oval since. She began her in-season assault with a 5k time of 15:44 at the Boston University Season Opener, only a hair off of her personal best,

However, even though Mackay was formerly chalked up to be a long distance mainstay, she has dropped down in distance with unbelievable success this winter.

Mackay recorded a brilliant time of 2:06 for 800 meters at the Angry Birds Invite, a time which gained a 2:04 flat-track conversion. Then, the Binghamton star threw down a stunning 4:32 mile effort at the Penn State Open, beating Allison Johnson who, at the time, we didn't realize would be such a dangerous middle distance runner.

Mackay then smoothly transitioned to the 3000 meters where she ran a time of 8:54 at the John Thomas Terrier Classic. That performance makes her an obvious threat in this field, but her sensational mile time of 4:30 at the Boston University Valentine Invite only adds to the overwhelming firepower of her resume.

In a championship 3k, Mackay is well-equipped for nearly every racing style. In fact, the only way to beat her may be to run the kick out of her legs.

That, however, may not even work, as Mackay has the long distance experience and proven stamina required to keep up with this field. It’s not hard to imagine that she runs a sub-8:50 mark if the race is being pushed.

This America East superstar quite literally has the widest range out of anyone in this field. Mackay just needs to keep her head and cover moves, and if she is in the top-three or top-four with a few laps to go, or even in the middle of a strung-out pack, then her mile speed is going to be tantamount to powering her past her competitors.

Now, admittedly, one could argue that Mackay, while not necessarily inexperienced on the national stage, is inexperienced in terms of racing at this high of an elite level.

Does someone like Wayment or Ryan running hard from the gun possibly get the best of Mackay when they have personal bests nearly six seconds faster than hers? Perhaps.

But Mackay has been magical this year and she likely has some tricks up her sleeve that no other competitor does.

Katelyn Tuohy (NC State)

To be honest, there was one moment during this 2022 indoor season where it wasn’t clear if Tuohy would even be in this preview.

The NC State star had just finished her second appearance at the NCAA XC Championships, a race where she finished 15th overall, and then made a quick turnaround to the indoor oval, running a blistering fast time of 8:54 at Boston University.

Things looked good...and then Tuohy vanished.

She didn’t race for weeks, remained unentered in many races that NC State competed at and then finally, after long last, she reemerged as an entrant in the 5000 meters at the ACC Championships.

The question was, how would she run? Was this a rust-buster coming off of an injury? A genuine national qualifying attempt? Would she even place?

Well, Tuohy did what Tuohy usually does and rose to the occasion stupendously, washing away any doubt that may have lingered when the gun went off. She stormed her way to an ACC title in a very strong time of 15:41 which put her into the national meet in a second individual event.

The Wolfpack phenom is in the hunt for her first individual national title, and while she may not have the stellar mile times that some of her competitors do, there’s no reason to doubt her just yet.

Let's not forget, this second-year NCAA runner has run 4:12 for 1500 meters, a very quick mark which gives her better-than-expected turnover. And in case it wasn't already clear, Tuohy is a long distance juggernaut, excelling at the aerobic-centric events.

In theory, combining that speed and strength makes her the perfect fit for this 3000 meter race.

At the ACC Championships, her tactics were far above what you would expect of any new star on the NCAA scene. Tuohy chipped away methodically at the field over the last few laps to separate herself from the 2nd place finish by nearly more than 10 seconds, a style of domination that you rarely see in a powerhouse conference like the ACC.

Now, admittedly, she can’t outrun this 3k field at the national meet, but Tuohy is no stranger to running hard early-on and facing elite competition. If she runs with the pack and puts herself within the top pack of runners early-on, then she should be able to handle most cut-downs of pace in the middle laps that a runner like Chelengat or Ryan could attempt to employ.

Her aerobic strength is no joke, and in an honest race, Tuohy could make a realistic bid for the title.

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The women’s 3000 meters is absolutely mind-boggling this year, and to be frank, this field sets up nicely for a possible championship record. Packed with front-runners and numerous strong finishers, this race could go in nearly any direction.

In fact, we haven't even mentioned top talents like Samantha Bush or Kelsey Chimel. Heck, the winner might not even be from the top-10 seed times! Stranger things have happened at the national meet I suppose...

A different kind of March Madness, one that plays out on the track, is just around the corner.

And so is, potentially, one of the greatest collegiate 3000 meter races of all time.