BIG 10 XC Championship Preview

Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Jan 29, 2021
11 min read

Updated: Jan 30, 2021

Tomorrow is the BIG 10 XC Championships.

That feels a bit weird to type out when you consider that Monday is the first day of February. Even so, we're absolutely amped to have cross country back, especially in a conference that hasn't (officially) competed on the grass since the fall of 2019.

Plenty has changed in the BIG 10 since the 2019 season and although we have limited data to analyze, we're going to give this our best shot and provide you with the best preview that we can. So with that, let's dive right in...

Men's Preview

Team Race

The unfortunate news that Michigan will not be able to compete this weekend due to heightened precautions surrounding the Coronavirus is certainly a bummer. The Wolverines were likely favored, in our eyes, to take home the BIG 10 title this weekend had they actually raced.

Devin Meyrer and Jack Aho are proven All-Americans, Tom Brady just ran 7:58 for 3000 meters, they added a few key names to their roster during the summer offseason and had a few returning scorers that the Wolverines could rely on. In terms of their lineup structure, this team was poised to do big things.

Although the Michigan men (and women) have been granted an out-of-conference competition opportunity later this winter, their logistical inability to compete for the BIG 10 title this weekend does take away from the spark of this race.

However, the Michigan men weren't the only ones in contention to win the conference title. One could certainly argue that the Wisconsin Badgers were poised to take down Big Blue and give themselves yet another conference win. On paper, Wisconsin was (and is) one of the few teams that could match Michigan's balance of firepower and depth.

Between Jackson Sharp (13:44 for 5000 meters), Jack Meijer (13:44 for 5000 meters), Shuaib Aljabaly (29:05 for 10,000 meters) and Olin Hacker (7:52 for 3000 meters), the Wisconsin men have four runners who could realistically finish in the top-10 of Saturday's race. That's four men who are currently listed in the "Just Missed" or "Honorable Mention" portion of our Top 50 rankings.

Of course, the depth of this Wisconsin squad is what has made them so historically great...and we don't see that changing this year.

Their current freshmen class, featuring Bob Liking and Evan Bishop, gives the men from Madison, Wisconsin plenty of talented (but inexperienced) backend support. They'll also have the services of veteran Seth Hirsch who was beginning to find his groove prior to the pandemic shutting down competition.

Through seven runners, Wisconsin is simply the better team in our eyes and we would expect them to take home gold on Saturday.

That said, the Purdue men should be able to keep things competitive. Yes, they did lose top scorer Jaret Carpenter from their 2019 team, but they still have two top low-sticks in Brody Smith and Curt Eckstein.

Add in recent D2 graduate transfer Joseph Humes, the return of backend supporting scorer Bailey McIntire as well as a plethora of other respectable runners, and you have a Purdue squad that can at least keep things interesting on Saturday.

It's tough to say exactly what we should expect out of the Boilermakers in this race, largely because we don't know what kind of improvements the second-half of their lineup has made over the past year. Can they match the firepower and the depth that Wisconsin is expected to bring to the table? That admittedly seems like a big ask, although we could see Purdue matching some of Wisconsin's scoring through the first two or three runners.

Overall, we don't think Purdue's recent success over the past few seasons has been a fluke. For the most part, they still have the main core of their lineup which has made them so successful over the past two years. That has to be taken into consideration for Saturday's race.

We also need to talk about Indiana. They are a tricky team to figure out.

Last year's Indiana team was admittedly limited after five runners and were essentially carried by Kyle Mau and Ben Veatch. Now, don't take that the wrong way. Arjun Jha looks like a strong runner who is on the verge of being a potential front-runner and Dustin Horter is a very solid piece as well, but only when's at his best.

However, Mau is no longer providing this team with a massive scoring spark and long-time veteran Bryce Millar isn't available to close out the scoring at the backend of the Hoosiers' lineup. As a result, we are left with more questions than answers when talking about the IU men.

Reese Jordan seems like a respectable talent and Matthew Schadler has done incredibly well on the track. Even Cooper Williams has held his own on the grass. Still, there is too much uncertainty regarding Indiana's depth and the consistency of their middle lineup scorers for us to convincingly say that they'll be able to contend with Purdue (at least right now).

As for the rest of thi field, trying to figure out the order of the next few teams is far from easy. Michigan State, Minnesota, Penn State and Nebraska could all be among the top-five teams in the BIG 10 this weekend.

The Spartans of Michigan State are led by title contender Morgan Beadlescomb and just had two promising performances out of James Uhlenberg (8:02 for 3000 meters) and Brenden Favazza (8:07 for 3000 meters). Can they translate those performances to the grass? And can the rest of MSU's lineup hold their own in this field?

Penn State returns a good portion of their scorers from last year's 5th place BIG 10 team and their recent performances on the track, both last winter and this winter, have been encouraging. They have respectable depth, but can the Nittany Lions find at least one true front-runner to give them an edge in the overall scoring?

Minnesota has had a strong indoor track season so far. The Golden Gophers seem deeper than usual this year and it feels like they are extra motivated to show off their fitness after having their indoor track program cut earlier in the year.

Alec Basten is a great front-runner, but can this lineup collectively close the gaps between him and everyone else? If they can, they'll be among the top-five teams this weekend.

As for Nebraska, George Kusche is an absolute star and they had a few decent returning scorers behind him at the second and third scoring positions when looking at the 2019 BIG 10 XC Championships.

However, Nebraska lost a significant number of veteran scorers from the latter half of their 2019 lineup (according to TFRRS), leaving us unsure about how vulnerable this team will be in a larger field. Will the addition of potential low-stick Dais Malebana be able to counter any scoring deficiencies that the Huskers have this weekend?

Final Predictions:

Wisconsin Badgers
Purdue Boilermakers
Indiana Hoosiers
Michigan State Spartans
Penn State Nittany Lions

Individual Race

This is going to be an outstanding race. I would argue that Morgan Beadlescomb (Michigan State) is favored to take home the overall title, but not by a ton. George Kusche (Nebraska) is a dynamic and dangerous distance threat in his own right and is actually the top returner from the 2019 BIG 10 meet. On paper, these guys are the two stars of the field.

Of course, Indiana's Ben Veatch could very easily hop into that mix for the title. He has looked strong so far on the indoor track and was 4th at this meet last year. When he's at his best, he is not easy to take down.

Then we have the puzzle of the Wisconsin men. They have two guys who have run 13:44 (5k), another guy who has run 29:05 (10k) and another guy who has run 7:52 (3k). In theory, all four of those men can finish in the top-10 of this race.

But their ceiling? Well, that's what we're unsure about. We think one of them could be in the mix for the overall win, we just don't know who that would be.

Finally, keep an eye on the Purdue duo of Curt Eckstein and Brody Smith. These two don't get enough credit for where they have finished in some of the most nation's competitive meets. While I'm not sure that either runner will be in contention for the overall win, top-10 performances from both of these guys should be in the cards.

Final Predictions:

Morgan Beadlescomb (Michigan State)
George Kusche (Nebraska)
Ben Veatch (Indiana)
Jackson Sharp (Wisconsin)
Curt Eckstein (Purdue)
Jack Meijer (Wisconsin)
Brody Smith (Purdue)
Alec Basten (Minnesota)
Olin Hacker (Wisconsin)
Arjun Jha (Indiana)

Women's Preview

Team Race

Just like we mentioned with the men, the Michigan women will not be competing this weekend. This would be disappointing for us regardless of the team, but it's especially disappointing since we thought we would finally get our long-awaited questions about Michigan answered.

We know how good Ericka VanderLende is, but the rest of the Wolverines' lineup was (and still is) filled with question marks regarding their potential. Will Katelynne Hart be the freshman star that we think she can be? Will Anne Forsyth return to competition? Can Camile Davre return to her 2018 form? If the answers to all of those questions were a "Yes", then we're talking about the Michigan women potentially getting on the podium come March.

However, we'll have to wait a little longer to see if any of that speculation holds true.

So, in that case, which teams are the favorites to win it all this weekend?

Well, there's not really one easy answer.

You could argue that five different women's teams are capable of winning the BIG 10 title this weekend. Yes, five. Those teams, in our mind, are Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan State and Indiana. Let's talk about the Badgers first.

It seems a bit crazy that a team which lost Alicia Monson and Amy Davis last year are still in the BIG 10 title conversation. That, however, is because other teams lost numerous veterans of their own and because Wisconsin brought in multiple reinforcements.

The addition of Canadian collegiate star Brogan MacDougall is huge from a firepower standout and she could be a true low-stick in Saturday's race. The Badgers also added Utah's Scarlet Dale to their roster. She was a respectable scorer for the Utes last year and brings some welcomed scoring stability to this lineup.

Returning veteran Alissa Niggemann is also expected to be a front-runner while is Lucinda Crouch offers scoring stability similar to that of Scarlet Dale. With a few key youngsters providing depth, the Wisconsin women seem to have the necessary pieces required to win the BIG 10 title.

Let's chat about Michigan State. They are a really challenging team to gauge. We have them ranked higher than Wisconsin (for now), but it's hard to know what this team is capable of after losing so many talented scorers.

The women in green and white lost Annie Fuller and Jeralyn Poe to expired cross country eligibility. Heck, they even lost head coach Walt Drenth to retirement. The Spartans do, however, return accomplished and proven veterans such as India Johnson, Jenna Magness and Lynsie Gram who were very solid throughout 2019.

Fellow teammates Maggie Farrell, Lindsey Rudden and Sarah Kettel are all respectable names and can at least close out the scoring on this team fairly quickly. Compared to other cross country squads, the Michigan State women aren't as likely to let their team point total grow to an excessive number.

Still, does that mean that this team has enough scoring potency to take down programs with more firepower such as Wisconsin and Minnesota? The Spartans were easily one of the deepest teams in the NCAA during the fall of 2019, cruising through the women's "B" race at the Nuttycombe Invite with just 18 points.

However, it's been over a year since that race, so now it's time to see if Michigan State's depth has developed any further since then.

Let's talk about Illinois. They are a personal favorite of mine as I don't think we gave them enough respect in our preseason rankings.

I really liked the progress that we saw from front-runners Rebecca Craddock and Allison McGrath last fall. Not only that, but the Illinois women lost only one runner from their 2019 lineup. They have since brought back everyone else from that team and have added a promising transfer in Ayah Aldadah who finished 30th at the 2019 Midwest Regional Championships.

This team has extensive depth and you won't find many varsity lineups who are as reliable as Illinois' top five. However, we do have to question whether or not this team has enough overall firepower to match some of the top squads in this field. Their supporting cast is respectable, but can Craddock and McGrath earn top-10 finishes while their teammates keep gaps to a minimum? I suppose we'll find out...

Moving our conversation to Minnesota, the Golden Gophers were one of the most exciting teams to talk about this past summer. Not only did they qualify for the 2019 national meet without the Hasz twins, but they returned everyone from that national qualifying team and bring back two proven star low-sticks in Bethany Hasz and Megan Hasz.

On paper, it's hard not to like the upside associated with Minnesota. However, Megan Hasz hasn't been amazing in her past two races on the indoor track and that's not ideal heading into this weekend. The Golden Gophers have plenty of depth, but a second low-stick scorer who is racing at 100% next to Bethany Hasz would have made this team extremely difficult to take down.

How will Megan Hasz race this weekend race? If she doesn't have her best race, can this team still win the BIG 10 title? Yes, especially if Anastasia Korzenowski runs well, but that won't be easy by any means.

Finally, we have Indiana. Outside of maybe Minnesota, there isn't a team in this BIG 10 with more upside than the Hoosiers. In the fall of 2019, they surprised many of us at TSR by qualifying for the NCAA XC Championships despite fielding five freshmen, one sophomore and one senior at their regional meet (according to TFRRS).

That was an extremely inexperienced team, yet they were still competitive amongst some of the nation's better cross country programs.

Now these women are another year older and will surely benefit from the experience that they gained last year. We think they'll be a better overall team in 2021, but by how much? Bailey Hertenstein is a true low-stick and Sarah Schmitt looks like a capable secondary scorer, but how will the rest of this team develop? Can they close the gaps between themselves and the Hoosiers' top two in a field that is this large?

One last team we wanted to mention is Penn State. Admittedly, we don't see them as a title-contending team after they lost Kathryn Munks, Julia Paternain and Danae Rivers (who is no longer listed on their roster). That is a ton of lost scoring potency which admittedly seems difficult to rebound from over the span of one year.

Now, in fairness to Penn State, they still have numerous youngsters returning from last year's lineup and that group should make this team better than we're giving them credit for. Even so, we'll be curious to see how the women from State College run this weekend as they go through a roster rebuild of sorts.

Final Predictions:

Wisconsin Badgers
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Illinois Fighting Illini'
Michigan State Spartans
Indiana Hoosiers

Individual Race

If Michigan was racing, I would probably tell you that Ericka VanderLende was going to be the favorite. However, because she isn't racing this weekend, that honor will likely go to Minnesota's Bethany Hasz. Not only does she have the best overall resume in this field, but she's also gotten off to the hottest start this winter, running 9:24 (3k) and 15:50 (5k) in what were largely solo efforts.

That said, Bailey Hertenstein was an outstanding distance talent during her sophomore year. She's the top returner from the 2019 BIG 10 meet and never had a bad race throughout the entirely of that season. If last year is any indication of her current fitness, then she could certainly take down Bethany Hasz and secure herself a conference title on Saturday.

When you go further down the list, the number of title contenders begins to run thin. Alissa Niggemann (Wisconsin), Brogan MacDougall (Wisconsin), Anastasia Korzenowski (Minnesota), Jenna Magness (Michigan State) and Rebecca Craddock (Illinois) all have a chance to be in the mix, but I don't feel as strongly about those women as I do about Bethany Hasz and Bailey Hertenstein.

Final Predictions:

Bethany Hasz (Minnesota)
Bailey Hertenstein (Indiana)
Brogan MacDougall (Wisconsin)
Jenna Magness (Michigan State)
Anastasia Korzenowski (Minnesota)
Rebecca Craddock (Illinois)
Alissa Niggemann (Wisconsin)
Sarah Schmitt (Indiana)
Alison Willingmyre (Penn State)
India Johnson (Michigan State)