2026 NCAA Indoor Championship Scratch Predictions (D1)

This is my favorite time of the indoor track season.

Admittedly, part of that is because we get a weekend off of reacting to results before the national meet comes around. The other part, however, is because the next two weeks feature some of my favorite content to write!

And more specifically, I'm talking about this article.

We have just one more meet left in the 2026 indoor track season -- the NCAA Indoor Championships. However, with conference meets wrapping up, we still need to do the delicate dance of figuring out who is and isn't contesting certain events come mid-March.

That, of course, is far from a simple exercise.

At the Division One level, the top-16 individuals and the top-12 relays in the country automatically qualify for the NCAA Indoor Championships. However, athletes within that top-16 could also be qualified in a number of other events and instead would like to focus on certain races over others.

Opting out of a top-16 spot in a certain event is called a "scratch". This allows the next-fastest, non-scratching athlete to qualify for the indoor national meet in that event.

In some instances, we don't see any scratches in certain events. Other times, we could go as high as NCAA #30 in a race given how many scratches one discipline may have.

There are often a TON of ripple effects that these scratches (and non-scratches) have on the national qualifying picture. At The Stride Report, it's our job to predict who is scratching which events and who is not...so let's get into it.

Women's 800 Meters

For the most part, this event is fairly straightforward.

Sure, there are a number of distance runners who are qualified for the national meet in multiple individual events. However, in most scenarios, the 800 meters ends up being the more ideal option.

Take, for instance, Analisse Batista. She is also listed at NCAA #12 over 400 meters this season. However, the Arkansas women have two other runners who are expected to qualify for the national meet in that event. Plus, Batista's individual title at the SEC Indoor Championships suggest that she could realistically make the 800-meter finals at the national meet.

Harvard's Sophia Gorriaran, meanwhile, could theoretically opt for the mile should enough scratches fall in her favor. Even so, the 800 meters is what Gorriaran has always contested on the national stage. She has tons of experience in that event and, at the national level, the half-mile distance doesn't seem to be as loaded as the mile distance this winter.

There's a realistic world where Gorriaran wins NCAA gold over 800 meters. We can't say the same thing about her contesting the mile.

Similarly, Ohio State's Aniya Mosley is in a national qualifying position in both the 800 meters and the mile. However, let's not forget that the Buckeye ace was a All-American over 800 meters at the 2024 NCAA Outdoor Championships. She has run 2:00.80 for the half-mile distance before and has experience in that event. It would be stunning to see her choose the mile over 800 meters at this year's indoor national meet.

The only two names who gave us pause are Washington State's Rosemary Longisa and Washington's Chloe Foerster.

When it comes to Longisa, she has been fantastic this entire season. Times of 1:59 (800), 2:38 (1k) and 4:24 (mile) showcase an elite level of fitness that is borderline overwhelming. However, she has the ability to contest either the 800 meters or the mile at the national meet. And truthfully, she can't go wrong regardless of what she chooses.

That said, the women's mile is ridiculously stacked this winter while the 800 meters has a bit more room for chaos. Both events are competitive, but it would make more sense if Longisa went all-in for the 800 meters rather than the mile.

It's a nearly identical situation for Foerster, the Washington veteran who has run 1:59 (800), 2:37 (1k) and 4:25 (mile) this winter. She could contest either event, but the mile has historically been where she's the most comfortable.

Sure, that race will likely be ridiculously competitive in two weeks, but lethal speed, proven comfort with the event and extensive experience likely means that Foerster will scratch out of the 800 meters in favor of the mile...right?

Final Predictions

1. Gladys Chepngetich (Clemson)

2. Hayley Kitching (Penn State)

3. Rosemary Longisa (Washington State)

T4. Sanu Jallow-Lockhart (Arkansas)

T4. Juliette Whittaker (Stanford)

6. Chloe Foerster (Washington) -- SCRATCH

7. Avery Pearson (Colorado)

8. Maeve O'Neill (Providence)

T9. Makayla Paige (North Carolina)

T9. Analisse Batista (Arkansas)

11. Sophia Gorriaran (Harvard)

12. Vanice Kerubo Nyagisera (Kentucky)

13. Aniya Mosley (Ohio State)

14. Zoie Dundon (Minnesota)

15. Boh Ritchie (Penn State)

16. Veronica Hargrave (Indiana)

17. Elizabeth Martell (Villanova) -- LAST WOMAN IN

Men's 800 Meters

There is only one guy who could realistically scratch from this event. That, of course, is Northern Arizona star, Colin Sahlman.

The Lumberjack ace ran the NCAA record of 1:44.70 over 800 meters earlier this season, winning the Millrose Games in the process. Since then, he has run 3:52 in the mile, had already posted a time of 7:36 for 3000 meters from December and clocked a time of 1:46.11 for 800 meters at altitude this past weekend.

It is plenty possible that Sahlman scratches this event in favor of the mile. After all, the mile national title may actually be more open for the taking than the 800-meter title will be. Not only that, but choosing to run the mile over the 800 meters would make Sahlman's double back to the 3000 meters on day two easier to manage.

And yet, can we really imagine a 1:44 (800) guy, who is also the NCAA record holder, scratching from this event? That just seems absurd.

Final Predictions

1. Colin Sahlman (Northern Arizona)

2. Handal Roban (Penn State)

3. Tinoda Matsatsa (Georgetown)

4. Allon Clay (Penn State)

5. Rivaldo Marshall (Arkansas)

6. Landon Bott (Utah State)

7. Matthew Erickson (Oregon)

8. Camden Marshall (Indiana)

9. Brian Kweyei (Clemson)

10. Tyrice Taylor (Arkansas)

11. Peter Narumbe (Texas A&M)

12. Joseph Socarras (Penn)

13. Yukichi Ishii (Penn State)

14. James Harding (Oregon)

15. Tyler Edson (Virginia)

16. Miguel Pantojas (Florida) -- LAST MAN IN

Women's Mile

Buckle up, there's a lot to explain here.

We outlined our thought process in the above 800-meter section, but Washington State's Rosemary Longisa and Ohio State's Aniya Mosley will likely scratch out of the mile (we feel more confident about the latter compared to the former).

The half-mile distance may have more room for Longisa to find success while Mosley has prior national meet experience (and success) over 800 meters. The same thing can be said about Harvard's Sophia Gorriaran.

Washington's Chloe Foerster could scratch the mile in favor of the 800 meters. However, as we mentioned above, the Husky star is clearly more comfortable with the mile distance and her half-mile speed could come in handy for a tactical affair.

When it comes to BYU's Jane Hedengren, it's clear that she's going to scratch this race and contest the 5k/3k double at the national meet. She is clearly better over the longer distances and is a realistic threat to Doris Lemngole for NCAA gold in those races.

Yes, women such as Billah Jepkirui, Riley Chamberlain, Silan Ayyildiz and Hayley Burns are all in national qualifying positions for the 3000 meters. However, all of those women could argue that the mile is their primary event. As such, they (probably) don't care about running on tired legs in the 3k as long as they can go all-in for the mile.

Yes, it's true, women such as Jepkirui, Chamberlain, Nielsen, Ayyildiz, Engelhardt, Stegall, Cherubet, David, Rinn, Cochran and Sjoberg all have distance medley relays that they helped advance to the national meet. Even so, it feels unlikely that those women would scratch the mile to be fresh for the DMR.

Jepkirui, Chamberlain, Nielsen, Ayyildiz and Engelhardt all have realistic chances of winning the NCAA mile title -- scratching from the event would be a stunning voluntarily forfeiture of their hopes for NCAA gold. Meanwhile, Stegall, Cherubet, David, Rinn and Cochran don't have another event like the 3000 meters to double back to if they scratch the mile in favor of the DMR.

The experience of competing in an individual event on the national stage is too big to pass up.

In my eyes, there are only two women in this mile field who could realistically scratch the mile in favor of the DMR. That would be South Carolina's Salma Elbadra and North Carolina's Vera Sjoberg.

However, of those two women, Elbadra is the only one who I could see doing it. The Gamecock ace could be argued as a stronger 3000-meter runner than a miler. Plus, by scratching the mile in favor of the DMR, Elbadra wouldn't have to contest the mile finals on day two of the national meet just a couple of hours before the 3000 meters.

Scheduling-wise, it would make perfect sense for her to scratch from this event.

Sjoberg, however, may not scratch the mile in favor of the DMR. Yes, she is also in a national qualifying position for the 3000 meters. However, her DMR lineup likely won't feature defending indoor national champion, Makayla Paige. Put simply, it makes more sense for Sjoberg to go all-in for the mile/3k double than worry about a DMR lineup that isn't the best version of what it could be.

But maybe the most perplexing name of all is Liberty's Allie Zealand. In fact, the debate of whether or not she should contest the mile/3k double or just the 3k has led to a few arguments on The Stride Report Podcast.

Zealand is somewhat clearly better over 3000 meters, at least for this season. Sure, she could contest the mile and double back to the 3k, but she's not as strong of an All-American favorite in the former event as she is in the latter event. Doing the double would theoretically leave her with tired legs for the 3k -- and personally, I don't think that's the right call.

I'm not sure what the Liberty distance ace is going to do, but scratching to be completely fresh for (what I think is) her best event makes the most sense in my mind.

Final Predictions

1. Billah Jepkirui (Oklahoma State)

2. Riley Chamberlain (BYU)

3. Wilma Nielsen (Oregon)

4. Jane Hedengren (BYU) -- SCRATCH

5. Sadie Engelhardt (NC State)

6. Kaiya Robertson (Boise State)

7. Rosemary Longisa (Washington State) -- SCRATCH

8. Silan Ayyildiz (Oregon)

9. Hayley Burns (Northern Arizona)

10. Chloe Foerster (Washington)

11. Claire Stegall (Florida)

12. Juliet Cherubet (Oregon)

13. Salma Elbadra (South Carolina) -- SCRATCH

14. Berlyn Schutz (Nebraska)

15. Tatum David (Virginia)

16. Aniya Mosley (Ohio State) -- SCRATCH

17. Brianna Rinn (Utah)

18. Allie Zealand (Liberty) -- SCRATCH

19. Mia Cochran (Washington)

20. Vera Sjoberg (North Carolina)

21. Sophia Gorriaran (Harvard) -- SCRATCH

22. Tatiana Cornejo (Cal Poly) -- LAST WOMAN IN

Men's Mile

Unlike the women's mile field, the men's mile field for the NCAA Indoor Championships features less potential for scratches. Part of that is because there is only one miler who could contest the 800 meters (Colin Sahlman). There is also a smaller handful of runners who could double back to the 3000 meters.

As we mentioned above, we have Colin Sahlman scratching the mile (and the DMR) in favor of the (quite rare) 800/3k double. However, it's plenty possible for the Northern Arizona star to opt out of the 800 meters in favor of the mile.

Other men such as Elliott Cook, Reuben Reina and Tomas Palfrey are each positioned to also qualify for the NCAA Indoor Championships over 3000 meters. However, the mile could (probably) be argued as the best event for all three of those men. And even if you don't believe that, then Oregon probably doesn't care -- the Ducks are always gunning to score as many team points as they can.

Put simply, it's unlikely that those three men scratch from the mile.

However, Virginia Tech's George Couttie is a very tricky name to gauge. The Hokie star has run 7:36 for 3000 meters this winter (back in December) as well as 3:52 in the mile. He also helped the VT men qualify a DMR lineup for the NCAA Indoor Championships.

In theory, Couttie could scratch out of the mile to contest the DMR fully fresh. Then, he could contest the 3000 meters the next day while still being a clear All-American favorite. Let's also not forget that, under Coach Ben Thomas, the Virginia Tech men have put a heavy amount of emphasis on the DMR.

But there's a catch.

Nick Plant didn't qualify for the NCAA Indoor Championships in an individual event. That means that he can contest the DMR fully fresh along with a two-time ACC champion (over 800 meters) in Christian Jackson who will also be fully fresh. Those two men, paired with Dylan DeCambre, could feasibly compete for the DMR national title without Couttie.

For that reason, I don't see Couttie scratching from the mile...but he definitely could.

We have yet to mention Isaiah Givens, Justine Kipkoech, Tor Hotung-Davidsen, Gary Martin, Thomas Diamond, Carter Cutting or Trent McFarland. Those men could all theoretically scratch from the mile in favor of the DMR, as could already-mentioned names such as Reina, Cook, Palfrey, Couttie and Sahlman.

However, Colorado wouldn't be competitive enough in the DMR to justify scratching Givens and Kipkoech. The same could be said about BYU and Carter Cutting as well as NAU and Tor Hotung-Davidsen (if Sahlman isn't in the lineup).

Washington is a mile powerhouse that wouldn't scratch Reina or Diamond. And even if they did scratch both men, then they would just have to scratch another Husky runner in Tyler Bilyard (who can already be fresh for the DMR).

As for Virginia, they wouldn't scratch Martin for the DMR. He already did that last year and doesn't have the 3000 meters to double back to this time around. Yes, the Cavalier ace also has a national qualifying mark over 5000 meters, but the mile makes way more sense. If he wanted to, Martin could at least double back from the mile prelims to contest the DMR -- the 5k would make that task very difficult.

The only other name who is difficult to figure out is Michigan's Trent McFarland.

The Wolverine men have the top DMR time in the country this year. And, when they're all firing on all cylinders, they could be argued as the national title favorites. That, however, depends on whether or not they will have McFarland in their lineup.

If McFarland scratches from the mile and is fully fresh, then Michigan could be favored for NCAA gold. However, it's also possible that McFarland's mile prelim heat is slow enough for him to double back for the DMR a few hours later and effectively contribute to that lineup.

Given how wide-open the mile seems right now, McFarland may be a legitimate threat (dare I say, favorite?) for the NCAA title in that event. As such, I am not expecting him to scratch from the mile.

Final Predictions

1. Isaiah Givens (Colorado)

2. George Couttie (Virginia Tech)

3. Colin Sahlman (Northern Arizona) -- SCRATCH

4. Elliott Cook (Oregon)

5. Reuben Reina (Washington)

6. Pierre Attiogbe (Cornell)

7. Thomas Diamond (Washington)

8. Gary Martin (Virginia)

9. Trent McFarland (Michigan)

10. Carter Cutting (BYU)

11. Paul Specht (Wake Forest)

12. Justine Kipkoech (Colorado)

13. Tor Hotung-Davidsen (Northern Arizona)

14. Matthew Endrody (New Mexico)

15. Tomas Palfrey (Oregon)

16. Jaouad Khchina (South Carolina)

17. Connor McCormick (Princeton) -- LAST MAN IN

Women's 3000 Meters

Very few men and very few women ever scratch from this event. The 3k is at the end of the national meet. In other words, athletes can simply double back to this event largely because they have nothing to lose. For that reason, I don't see anyone scratching this event...but it's not impossible, either.

Final Predictions

1. Doris Lemngole (Alabama)

2. Jane Hedengren (BYU)

3. Salma Elbadra (South Carolina)

4. Silan Ayyildiz (Oregon)

5. Vera Sjoberg (North Carolina)

6. Riley Chamberlain (BYU)

7. Jenna Hutchins (BYU)

8. Betty Kipkore (Iowa State)

9. Allie Zealand (Liberty)

10. Pamela Kosgei (New Mexico)

11. Marion Jepngetich (New Mexico)

12. Billah Jepkirui (Oklahoma State)

13. Angelina Napoleon (NC State)

14. Hilda Olemomoi (Florida)

15. Hayley Burns (Northern Arizona)

16. Erin Vringer (Utah) -- LAST WOMAN IN

Men's 3000 Meters

Very few men and very few women ever scratch from this event. The 3k is at the end of the national meet. In other words, athletes can simply double back to this event largely because they have nothing to lose. For that reason, I don't see anyone scratching this event...but it's not impossible, either.

Final Predictions

1. Marco Langon (Villanova)

2. Colton Sands (North Carolina)

3. Tayvon Kitchen (BYU)

4. Colin Sahlman (Northern Arizona)

5. George Couttie (Virginia Tech)

6. Habtom Samuel (New Mexico)

7. Tomas Palfrey (Oregon)

8. Benjamin Balazs (Oregon)

9. Simeon Birnbaum (Oregon)

10. Jesse Hamlin (Butler)

11. Ernest Cheruiyot (Arkansas)

12. Taha Er Raouy (Eastern Kentucky)

13. Connor Burns (Oregon)

14. Isaac Hedengren (BYU)

15. Elliott Cook (Oregon)

16. Reuben Reina (Washington) -- LAST MAN IN

Women's 5000 Meters

There is a realistic scenario where BYU's Riley Chamberlain attempts to the DMR/mile/3k triple at this year's NCAA Indoor Championships. And even if she doesn't, then she'll still probably attempt the mile/3k double or the DMR/3k double.

But all of that is to say this: Riley Chamberlain is not going to contest the 5000 meters at the indoor national meet. BYU already has a 5k national title threat in Jane Hedengren. Plus, Chamberlain could realistically win NCAA gold in the mile (she is, after all, the NCAA mile record holder).

As for everyone else, it's extremely unlikely that any of these women scratch from the 5000 meters. Sure, the DMR is technically in play for some of these names, but even that seems like a stretch. Outside of Chamberlain, there is pretty much zero reason for any of these women to opt out of this event.

Final Predictions

1. Jane Hedengren (BYU)

2. Doris Lemngole (Alabama)

3. Riley Chamberlain (BYU) -- SCRATCH

4. Sydney Vaught (Arkansas)

5. Edna Chelulei (Eastern Kentucky)

6. Pamela Kosgei (New Mexico)

7. Isca Chelangat (Oklahoma State)

8. Sophia Kennedy (Stanford)

9. Hilda Olemomoi (Florida)

10. Mercyline Kirwa (Iowa State)

11. Mary Bonner Dalton (Notre Dame)

12. Joy Naukot (West Virginia)

13. Caren Kiplagat (Alabama)

14. Judy Chepkoech (Florida)

15. Diana Cherotich (Oregon)

16. Jadyn Keeler (North Dakota)

17. Betty Kipkore (Iowa State) -- LAST WOMAN IN

Men's 5000 Meters

While I'm not saying it's impossible, the idea of Gary Martin scratching the mile in favor of the 5000 meters seems far-fetched. The UVA star just lost to Colton Sands in a somewhat tactical 5k race at the ACC Indoor Championships. Not only that, but the mile is historically Martin's best event and he can more effectively double back to the DMR if he chooses the mile over the 5k.

You could argue that guys like Marco Langon (Villanova), Colton Sands (North Carolina) and Tayvon Kitchen (BYU) are better over 3000 meters than over 5000 meters. If that's your opinion, then they could scratch from this event to be completely fresh for day two of the national meet (read: the 3k).

Even so, that all seems a bit extreme.

Langon has made it clear that he wants to the 5k national title and that he won't duck competition. Sands, meanwhile, has developed enough to realistically threaten for NCAA gold over 5000 meters (depending on who you ask). Kitchen may have the best argument of this trio to scratch the 5k, but at this point in his career, experience in both events is probably more valuable over the long-term.

Final Predictions

1. Habtom Samuel (New Mexico)

2. Marco Langon (Villanova)

3. Gary Martin (Virginia) -- SCRATCH

4. Denis Kipngetich (Oklahoma State)

5. Kelvin Cheruiyot (Florida)

6. Elsingi Kipruto (Louisville)

7. Ernest Cheruiyot (Arkansas)

8. Colton Sands (North Carolina)

9. Evans Kiplagat (New Mexico)

10. Rodgers Kiplimo (Iowa State)

11. Robin Kwemoi Bera (Iowa State)

12. Tayvon Kitchen (BYU)

13. Creed Thompson (BYU)

14. Dismus Lokira (Alabama)

15. Myles Hogan (Princeton)

16. Evan Jenkins (Washington)

17. Ethan Coleman (Notre Dame) -- LAST MAN IN

Women's DMR

The top-12 DMR teams automatically qualify for the indoor national meet. If a program has two DMR lineups within the top-12, then they will be allowed to have only one relay at the NCAA Indoor Championships. There is zero reason for these relays to scratch.

It's largely impossible to predict who will be on each relay, but we detail a lot of that in the above sections, specifically with the mile and the 800 meters...

Final Predictions

1. BYU Cougars

2. Oklahoma State Cowgirls

3. Arkansas Razorbacks

4. Iowa State Cyclones

5. Washington Huskies

6. South Carolina Gamecocks

7. Oregon Ducks

8. NC State Wolfpack

9. Florida Gators

10. North Carolina Tar Heels

11. Boston College Golden Eagles

12. Utah Utes -- LAST TEAM IN

Men's DMR

The top-12 DMR teams automatically qualify for the indoor national meet. If a program has two DMR lineups within the top-12, then they will be allowed to have only one relay at the NCAA Indoor Championships. There is zero reason for these relays to scratch.

It's largely impossible to predict who will be on each relay, but we detail a lot of that in the above sections, specifically with the mile and the 800 meters...

Final Predictions

1. Michigan Wolverines

2. Oregon Ducks

3. Virginia Tech Hokies

4. Villanova Wildcats

5. Virginia Cavaliers

6. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

7. Washington Huskies

8. Arkansas Razorbacks

9. Wisconsin Badgers

10. Penn State Nittany Lions

11. BYU Cougars

12. Colorado Buffaloes -- LAST TEAM IN