2025 NCAA Indoor Championship Scratch Predictions (D1)

This is my favorite time of the indoor track season. Admittedly, part of that is because we get a weekend off of reacting to results before the national meet comes around. The other part, however, is because the next two weeks feature some of my favorite content to write!

And more specifically, I'm talking about this article.

We have just one more meet left in the 2025 indoor track season -- the NCAA Indoor Championships. However, with conference meets wrapping up, we still need to do the delicate dance of figuring out who is and isn't contesting certain events come mid-March.

That, of course, is far from a simple exercise.

At the Division One level, the top-16 individuals and the top-12 relays in the country automatically qualify for the NCAA Indoor Championships. However, athletes within that top-16 could also be qualified in a number of other events and instead would like to focus on certain races over others.

Opting out of a top-16 spot in a certain event is called a "scratch". This allows the next-fastest, non-scratching athlete to qualify for the indoor national meet in that event.

In some instances, we don't see any scratches in certain events. Other times, we could go as high as NCAA #30 in a race given how many scratches one discipline may have.

There are often a TON of ripple effects that these scratches (and non-scratches) have on the national qualifying picture. At The Stride Report, it's our job to predict who is scratching which events and who is not...so let's get into it.

NOTE: Let's suppose that there is a scenario where, after scratches, there is only one national qualifying spot remaining in a certain individual event. However, in that event, there are two individuals who hold identical times who are both next in line to take that final national qualifying spot.

In an attempt to figure out which of those athletes should take the final spot, the NCAA will look at the athletes' next-fastest mark in that same event from that same season. Whoever has the next-fastest mark will be selected for the national meet.

For any athletes in which there is a tie-breaking scenario in our scratch predictions, we have added an asterisk (*) next to their names.

Women's 800 Meters

For the most part, this is a fairly easy field to predict as far as scratches are concerned. When you look at the below names, many of these women aren't qualified in many other individual events. And if they are, then their chances of national meet success aren't as high as it may be over 800 meters.

That, however, doesn't apply to Oregon's Wilma Nielsen who has run 4:25 in the mile twice this season. It is highly unlikely that she scratches out of that event. And while she technically could do the mile/800-meter double, that has proven to be an incredibly tricky racing schedule, even for the most talented middle distance stars.

At the end of the day, Nielsen is almost certainly going to scratch the 800 meters in favor of the mile. However, the story could be different for Portland's Laura Pellicoro.

The Italian distance star has been flat-out fantastic during her breakout season, having run times of 2:00 (800), 2:37 (1k), 4:25 (mile) and 8:53 (3k) this winter. However, her 800-meter PR and her mile PR are fairly equal in terms of their impressiveness. So what does that mean for her upcoming national meet appearance?

Pellicoro could try the mile/800-meter double. And while that is more likely for her than it is Nielsen, I still don't see the Pilot star contesting both of those races. Instead, I think she'll opt for the event that gives her the best chance at NCAA gold. In theory, that is the mile, a race that is expected to be insanely deep, but may not have a national title favorite as formidable as Juliette Whittaker.

Admittedly, Pellicoro has never been an All-American on the track, failing to make it out of the prelims in each of her attempts. If her goal is to simply earn a top-eight finish on the national stage, then the 800 meters may be the better option. But if the Portland ace is going all-out for gold, then the mile is likely her better choice despite the mass amount of talent that is expected to be in that field.

Final Predictions:

1. Juliette Whittaker (Stanford)

2. Sanu Jallow (Arkansas)

3. Meghan Hunter (BYU)

4. Michaela Rose (LSU)

5. Makayla Paige (North Carolina)

6. Victoria Bossong (Harvard)

7. Laura Pellicoro (Portland) -- SCRATCH

8. Hayley Kitching (Penn State)

9. Star Price (Virginia Tech)

T10. Wilma Nielsen (Oregon) -- SCRATCH

T10. Sophia Gorriaran (Harvard)

12. Roisin Willis (Stanford)

13. Gladys Chepngetich (Clemson)

T14. Gabriella Grissom (Miami (FL))

T14. Analisse Batista (Arkansas)

16. Tabitha Ngao (TCU)

17. Kaylie Politza (Oklahoma State)

18. Fanny Arendt (Texas Tech) -- LAST WOMAN IN

Men's 800 Meters

On the surface, predicting scratches (and non-scratches) for the men's 800 meters seems fairly easy. In fact, Colin Sahlman of Northern Arizona is really the only name who leaves us scratching our heads.

However, BYU, Georgetown, Oregon and Washington all have DMR lineups that will be competing at the indoor national meet. And together, those four teams make almost half of this projected 800-meter field. Is it possible that one of those men, specifically from the University of Washington, scratches to help their team in the DMR?

That's certainly possible, but it feels unlikely. Last year, not a single name in the top-16 of the men's 800 meters scratched out of the event at the national meet in favor of their relay...but it is something to consider.

Of course, Sahlman is the name that everyone is probably the most fascinated by.

This winter, the highly dynamic distance star has national qualifying marks over 800 meters, the mile and 3000 meters. Realistically, his only two options are to go all-in for the 800 meters or scratch out of the half-mile to attempt the mile/3k double.

In my opinion, I think Sahlman should scratch out of the mile and attempt the 800 meters (the 3k is at the end of the meet, so it largely doesn't matter what he chooses to do for that race). The men's 800 meters is fairly weak in terms of top-tier stars this winter and tactically, Sahlman looks as strong as ever. On paper, that feels like his best chance at a high placement on the national stage, especially with the mile looking incredibly stacked.

However, what I think Sahlman should do is not the same as what I think he will do.

The mile has seemingly been Sahlman's bread-and-butter during his time as a collegian. He did, after all, run 3:33 for 1500 meters last spring. Plus, by contesting the mile, his task of doubling back to the 3000 meters becomes noticeably easier.

Final Predictions:

1. Aidan McCarthy (Cal Poly)

2. Tinoda Matsatsa (Georgetown)

3. Abdullahi Hassan (Mississippi State)

4. Brian Kweyei (Clemson)

5. Darius Smallwood (Penn State)

6. Dan Watcke (Villanova)

7. Dayton Carlson (Arizona State)

8. Colin Sahlman (Northern Arizona) -- SCRATCH

9. Yukichi Ishii (Penn State)

10. Justin O'Toole (Washington)

11. Kyle Reinheimer (Washington)

12. Cole Lindhorst (Washington)

13. Darius Kipyego (Iowa State)

14. Olivier Desmeules (Penn State)

15. Koitatoi Kidali (Oregon)

16. Matthew Erickson (Oregon)

T17. Tyrice Taylor (Arkansas) -- LAST MAN IN*

T17. Tyler Mathews (BYU) -- FIRST MAN OUT*

Women's Mile

I'll be honest...I hate this field.

No, I don't hate any of these individuals who can be found on the national leaderboard and no, I don't think year's women's mile field is void of upper-echelon stars. In fact, they have plenty!

But when it comes to making scratch predictions, I had an extremely difficult time with this group. There are numerous women who could scratch from this field, either in favor of the 5000 meters, the 800 meters or the DMR.

Take, for instance, Laura Pellicoro. We already spoke about her in the above section and I ultimately predicted that she would scratch from the women's 800 meters in favor of this event. However, it's plenty possible that she actually does the reverse.

And what about Riley Chamberlain? The BYU superstar has run 4:26 in the mile this winter. However, the Cougars have a very realistic shot of winning the national title in the DMR if she is their anchor leg. She did, after all, split 4:27 to help her relay win NCAA gold last winter.

Not only that, but Chamberlain will also double back for the 3000 meters! And without having to worry about the mile finals on day two like other women, Chamberlain would actually be one of the fresher names in that field. On paper, it makes a ton of sense if she (once again) pursues the DMR/3k double. That's especially true if her fellow teammate, Carmen Alder (a 4:29 miler), does not make it into the national meet on scratches.

How about Grace Hartman? The NC State star has thrown down elite marks in the mile, 3k and 5k this winter. She was also pivotal to the Wolfpack women having success in the DMR a few weeks back.

I think a mile/3k double is plenty doable for Hartman. However, the still-rising distance ace could drop the mile in favor of the 5k or the DMR. And if I had to guess which avenue was more likely Hartman, I would say it was the latter two options. That's especially true after she was defeated at the ACC Indoor Championships in the mile, settling for bronze despite running a monster time of 4:26.

Oregon, Georgetown, NC State, Virginia, BYU, Washington, LSU, Northern Arizona and Providence are all expected to have DMR lineups at the NCAA Indoor Championships. Each of those schools also have representatives in the top-16 of the mile national leaderboard this winter.

One has to believe that at least one of these women will try the brutal mile/DMR/3k triple. And even if they don't, then what's stopping them from scratching from the mile to do the DMR/3k double? That is only two races instead of three races assuming that someone makes it to the mile finals on day two of the national meet.

Could the NAU duo of Alex Carlson and Maggi Congdon have interest in pursuing the DMR? What about Amina Maatoug and Chloe Foerster? Could Maatoug take solace in knowing that she still has the 3k if she were to scratch the mile for Washington's DMR? The same question can be asked to Kimberley May and Providence.

Truthfully, I think there's going to be one scratch that I don't have predicted below. The only issue is that I don't know who that will be. And for that reason, I'm only taking two women to scratch the women's mile...but I don't feel good about it.

Final Predictions:

1. Silan Ayyildiz (Oregon)

2. Grace Hartman (NC State) -- SCRATCH

3. Melissa Riggins (Georgetown)

4. Margot Appleton (Virginia)

5. Laura Pellicoro (Portland)

6. Wilma Nielsen (Oregon)

7. Riley Chamberlain (BYU) -- SCRATCH

8. Judy Kosgei (Clemson)

9. Amina Maatoug (Washington)

10. Chloe Foerster (Washington)

11. Lorena Rangel Batres (LSU)

12. Bethan Morley (Florida)

13. Alex Carlson (Northern Arizona)

14. Maggi Congdon (Northern Arizona)

15. Vera Sjoberg (Boston University)

16. Kimberley May (Providence)

17. Mena Scatchard (Princeton)

18. Mia Barnett (Oregon) -- LAST WOMAN IN

Men's Mile

Sure, you may only see three scratches in my predictions below, but there is a possibility that we could see five names opt out of this event!

Let's start with Virginia's Gary Martin...and I know what you're thinking.

"Garrett, this guy is a 3:48 miler! There is no way that he would opt out of this event!"

And truthfully, you may be right. It seems absurd to suggest that a 3:48 miler wouldn't contest that race on the national stage, especially since that has been his primary distance for the last few years. However, if other names scratch out of the DMR like we expect them to, then Martin and his teammates could absolutely be favored to win the national title.

If that happens, the Martin could come back having only one race under his legs prior to the 3000 meters. Ethan Strand, his biggest threat in that race, will likely have run both the mile prelims and the mile finals, making the 3k his third race of the weekend. And despite Parker Wolfe having run 7:30 (3k) back in December, there's a good chance that he will have run in the DMR the night before.

To make a long story short, I think Martin opting out of the mile creates the most optimal scenario as far as freshness and title contention are concerned.

"But couldn't Ethan Strand do the same exact thing?"

You're right, he could...but I just don't think that the collegiate record holder in a certain event would not contest that distance on the national stage. And sure, that's a pretty weak argument compared to Martin, but c'mon, can't a guy just have a hunch sometimes?

Aidan McCarthy will likely opt out of the mile. He ran 1:45.19 for 800 meters this past weekend. That time now sits at NCAA #3 all-time for the indoor half-mile distance. The Cal Poly veteran was an All-American over 800 meters in the spring of 2023 and may have a shot of winning NCAA gold after reaching a new tier of fitness this winter. If he runs the mile, I'll be stunned.

Harrison Witt could absolutely run the mile, but I can't help but wonder if he'll want to be completely fresh for the DMR.

The Princeton men were very close to defeating Wake Forest and North Carolina at the Boston U. Terrier DMR Challenge a few weeks ago with Witt on the anchor leg. And as we make our entry projections for the NCAA Indoor Championships, it's very possible that Gary Martin (Virginia), Ethan Strand (North Carolina), Rocky Hansen (Wake Forest), Tinoda Matsatsa (Georgetown) and Nathan Green (Washington) will not be anchoring their relays in Virginia Beach.

That, in turn, opens the door for a fully fresh Tiger lineup to pursue NCAA gold in the DMR. And given how team-centric Harrison Witt seemed to be in a post-race interview that we had with him, the idea of Princeton going all-in for that event wouldn't be the wildest prediction that I have ever made.

And yes, as I mentioned earlier, I do think Colin Sahlman will attempt the mile/3k double. I like his chances more over 800 meters than I do the mile, but I'm not sure that it will make much of a difference for him and Coach Mike Smith.

Final Predictions:

1. Ethan Strand (North Carolina)

2. Gary Martin (Virginia) -- SCRATCH

3. Nathan Green (Washington)

4. Ronan McMahon-Staggs (Washington)

5. Abel Teffra (Georgetown)

6. Fouad Messaoudi (Oklahoma State)

7. Steven Jackson (Boston College)

8. Simeon Birnbaum (Oregon)

9. Colin Sahlman (Northern Arizona)

10. Aidan McCarthy (Cal Poly) -- SCRATCH

11. Harrison Witt (Princeton) -- SCRATCH

12. Laban Kipkemboi (Oklahoma State)

13. Collins Kiprotich (New Mexico)

14. Rob McManus (Montana State)

15. Harvey Cramb (Montana State)

16. Foster Malleck (Boston University)

17. Reuben Reina (Arkansas)

T18. Benne Anderson (Syracuse)

T18. Isaiah Givens (Colorado) -- LAST MAN IN*

Women's 3k

Very few men and very few women ever scratch from this event. The 3k is at the end of the national meet. In other words, athletes can simply double back to this event largely because they have nothing to lose. For that reason, I don't see anyone scratching this event...but it's not impossible, either.

Final Predictions:

1. Lexy Halladay-Lowry (BYU)

2. Riley Chamberlain (BYU)

3. Elise Stearns (Northern Arizona)

4. Doris Lemngole (Alabama)

5. Sophia Kennedy (Stanford)

6. Amy Bunnage (Stanford)

7. Pamela Kosgei (New Mexico)

8. Kimberley May (Providence)

9. Shannon Flockhart (Providence)

10. Ceili McCabe (West Virginia)

11. Amina Maatoug (Washington)

12. Margot Appleton (Virginia)

13. Silan Ayyildiz (Oregon)

14. Grace Hartman (NC State)

15. Paityn Noe (Arkansas)

16. Hannah Gapes (NC State) -- LAST WOMAN IN

Men's 3k

I'd love to provide some kind of in-depth and meaningful analysis, but no one in this field is going to scratch this event. If someone does scratch, then there is likely some extraneous factor that I'm not aware of.

Final Predictions:

1. Ethan Strand (North Carolina)

2. Parker Wolfe (North Carolina)

3. Yaseen Abdalla (Arkansas)

4. Liam Murphy (Villanova)

5. Gary Martin (Virginia)

6. Marco Langon (Villanova)

7. Colin Sahlman (Northern Arizona)

8. Drew Bosley (Northern Arizona)

9. Luke Tewalt (Wake Forest)

10. Habtom Samuel (New Mexico)

11. Colton Sands (North Carolina)

12. Ishmael Kipkurui (New Mexico)

13. Nathan Green (Washington)

13. Matt Strangio (Portland)

T15. Brian Musau (Oklahoma State)

T15. George Couttie (Virginia Tech) -- LAST MAN IN*

Women's 5k

There are only three women in the women's 5k (among those in the top-16) who I could see realistically scratching from this event.

Let's start with Grace Hartman, the NC State star is who having a fantastic season. Right now, she has national qualifying marks for the 5000 meters, the 3000 meters and the mile. She could also enter the DMR.

I have Hartman scratching out of the mile...and I also have her scratching out of the 5000 meters. After seeing how strong Hannah Gapes was at the ACC Indoor Championships, I can't help but wonder if a fully fresh NC State lineup could contend for the DMR national title in Virginia Beach.

If Hartman were to scratch both the mile and the 5k at the national meet, then the Wolfpack could be in the mix for NCAA gold and Hartman would have one of the easier weekend doubles on day two (by later competing in the 3k).

Of course, it's also possible that Coach Laurie Henes saw how strong Gapes was this past weekend and came to the determination that she may not need Hartman on the DMR. That, in turn, would allow her to try the 5k/3k double.

We then come to Chloe Thomas.

The UConn star is someone who, at her best, is capable of earning All-American honors. The challenge, however, is that she hasn't raced since December 7th. And for as high as I am on someone of her talent level, history says that if someone hasn't competed in three months over the span of a singular season, then they likely aren't going to compete at the national meet.

And then there's my bold prediction: Sophia Kennedy.

The Stanford sophomore has been absolutely fantastic this winter. With times of 4:32 (mile), 8:42 (3k) and 15:26 (5k) now on her resume, as a well as a recent ACC 3k title in 8:47, Kennedy is on an insane hot streak.

But for as great as Kennedy has been, it would take a lot in order for her to be truly competitive with the likes of Doris Lemngole, Hilda Olemomoi, Lexy Halladay-Lowry, Pamela Kosgei and Amy Bunnage over 5000 meters.

So instead, why not go all-in for the 3000 meters?

The 3k is very clearly Kennedy's best event. Her chances of success over that distance at the national meet are far higher than they are in the 5k. That's especially true when you project which stars will contest which events. Plus, wouldn't it make more sense for a sophomore like Kennedy to be completely fresh for the 3k while her biggest competitors are all doubling back?

It's also possible that Stanford tries to have Kennedy fresh for the DMR while teammates Roisin Willis and Juliette Whittaker attempt to come back after the 800-meter prelims like they did in the winter of 2023.

In my eyes, there are simply too many reasons why Kennedy would scratch out of the 5k. And although it seems like a bit of a bold take, I do think it makes sense.

Final Predictions:

1. Doris Lemngole (Alabama)

2. Hilda Olemomoi (Florida)

3. Lexy Halladay-Lowry (BYU)

4. Pamela Kosgei (New Mexico)

5. Amy Bunnage (Stanford)

6. Paityn Noe (Arkansas)

7. Grace Hartman (NC State) -- SCRATCH

8. Lucy Jenks (Georgetown)

9. Chloe Thomas (Connecticut) -- SCRATCH

10. Elise Stearns (Northern Arizona)

11. Alex Millard (Providence)

12. Chloe Scrimgeour (Georgetown)

13. Siona Chisholm (Notre Dame)

14. Florence Caron (Penn State)

15. Sophia Kennedy (Stanford) -- SCRATCH

16. Ali Upshaw (Northern Arizona)

17. Jadyn Keeler (North Dakota)

18. Juliet Cherubet (Oregon)

19. Jenna Hutchins (BYU) -- LAST WOMAN IN

Men's 5k

These predictions are very straightforward and very easy.

Harvard's Graham Blanks turned pro in December after earning his 5k seed time. Naturally, he won't be competing at the NCAA Indoor Championships. But if you look at everyone else in this field, there isn't really a reason for any of these other men to scratch from the 5k.

Sure, it's possible that Rocky Hansen catches us by surprise and goes all-in for the DMR, giving up individual glory in the process. That, however, seems unlikely, especially with teammate Luke Tewalt available to compete in the DMR prior to his 3k race on day two. The same applies to Brian Musau of Oklahoma State, although maybe to a lesser extent.

But for the most part, with the exception of Blanks, your men's 5k field should more or less be set to go.

Final Predictions:

1. Graham Blanks (Harvard) -- TURNED PRO

2. Habtom Samuel (New Mexico)

3. Yaseen Abdalla (Arkansas)

4. Liam Murphy (Villanova)

5. Brian Musau (Oklahoma State)

6. Patrick Kiprop (Arkansas)

7. Ishmael Kipkurui (New Mexico)

8. Marco Langon (Villanova)

9. Rocky Hansen (Wake Forest)

10. Evans Kurui (Washington State)

11. Dylan Schubert (Furman)

12. Denis Kipngetich (Oklahoma State)

13. Casey Clinger (BYU)

14. Creed Thompson (BYU)

15. Sanele Masondo (Iowa State)

16. Joey Nokes (BYU)

17. Drew Bosley (Northern Arizona) -- LAST MAN IN

Women's DMR

The top-12 DMR teams automatically qualify for the indoor national meet. If a program has two DMR lineups within the top-12, then they will be allowed to have only one relay at the NCAA Indoor Championships. There is zero reason for these relays to scratch.

It's largely impossible to predict who will be on each relay, but we detail a lot of that in the above sections, specifically with the mile and the 800 meters...

Final Predictions:

1. BYU Cougars

2. Stanford Cardinal

3. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

4. Washington Huskies

5. Oregon Ducks

6. Utah Utes

7. North Carolina Tar Heels

8. Georgetown Hoyas

9. Harvard Crimson

10. Oregon Ducks "B" -- INELIGIBLE

11. NC State Wolfpack

12. LSU Tigers

13. LSU Tigers "B" -- INELIGIBLE

14. Providence Friars -- LAST TEAM IN

Men's DMR

The top-12 DMR teams automatically qualify for the indoor national meet. If a program has two DMR lineups within the top-12, then they will be allowed to have only one relay at the NCAA Indoor Championships. There is zero reason for these relays to scratch.

It's largely impossible to predict who will be on each relay, but we detail a lot of that in the above sections, specifically with the mile and the 800 meters...

Final Predictions:

1. Washington Huskies

2. Virginia Cavaliers

3. Oklahoma State Cowboys

4. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

5. North Carolina Tar Heels

6. Princeton Tigers

7. Georgetown Hoyas

8. Virginia Tech Hokies

9. Wisconsin Badgers

10. Texas A&M Aggies

11. BYU Cougars

12. Oregon Ducks -- LAST TEAM IN