2025 NCAA D1 XC Championship Preview: NC State, Oregon or BYU Women? Oklahoma State, Iowa State or New Mexico? Plus, Jane Hedengren vs Doris Lemngole

Responses via Rachel Hickey, Finn Birnie, Mike McKean & Finlay McIsaac

Questions, edits & additional commentary via Garrett Zatlin

It all goes down this Saturday...

The NCAA D1 XC Championships are set to be a thriller. The battle for both team titles appears to be extremely close while individual gold could define collegiate legacies for multiple athletes.

Below, we asked four of our Division One contributors for their thoughts on what they're expecting during tomorrow's season finale. Let's jump into it, shall we?

Men's Analysis

Oklahoma State, Iowa State and New Mexico are expected to battle for the men's team title at the NCAA XC Championships. What needs to happen for each of those teams if they are to win on Saturday?

Rachel: I think Oklahoma State might be narrowly favored to win it all, but mostly because they have looked so strong this postseason! Beating Iowa State not once, but twice (conference and regional) shows that they have the lethal combination of depth and firepower that is necessary to win the national title.

It’s clear that whichever team wins on Saturday will be the team that has the best of both worlds. The squad that wins will be the team with the tightest top-five time-spread, not necessarily the team with the best two or three runners.

Mike: For Oklahoma State, the recipe on paper feels quite familiar. For starters, they’ll need their lethal 1-2 punch of Brian Musau and Denis Kipngetich to perform like the top-five threats that they’ve been all season.

Now, admittedly, the former is coming off of an odd result at the Midwest regional meet (17th), and we’re not quite sure if that was a result of him being conservative or if he was flat-out “off” that day. Regardless, if Musau puts forth a result to the caliber of his BIG 12 XC Championship victory, then the superstar ace might come away with the individual title on Saturday.

Behind them, they’ll need consistency out of Adisu Guadia and Fouad Messaoudi. Both of these veterans have some volatility to them, and past results tell that story -- they were both unable to crack the top-110 at last year’s NCAA XC Championships. On top of that, they’ll need one of their many backend scoring options to have one of the best races of their careers. If one of Ryan Schoppe or Laban Kipkemboi can do that, then the trophy is coming back to Stillwater, Oklahoma.

When looking at how Iowa State can come away with the win, you have no choice but to look at only one potential “hiccup” that could occur for this squad. I am, of course, talking about their lack of scoring options after five runners.

In theory, the Cyclones could put their first four scorers across the line before any other team in the field does so. That speaks volumes to the brilliance of Joash Ruto, Robin Kwemoi Bera, Sanele Masondo and Rodgers Kiplimo.

When looking at the most likely candidates to cap off the scoring for Coach Jeremy Sudbury’s group, our minds wander to Meshack Kimutai. He was 19th at the Gans Creek Classic before earning an All-Conference honor at the BIG 12 XC Championships (13th). But while those are impressive results, he’ll need to replicate his peak effort on the biggest stage in the sport -- something easier said than done for a true freshman.

Behind Kimutai, things get a bit dicey if any of Iowa State's projected top-five runners have an “off” day. Yes, neither of the aforementioned names for Iowa State have had a detrimental result during the course of this season, but if that happens this weekend, then their chances of winning decrease dramatically.

When looking at New Mexico’s keys to success for bringing home the national title, step one is, arguably, the most realistic outcome of the weekend: Habtom Samuel takes home the individual title.

Obviously, things get easier when your first man tallies just one point. However, the continued brilliance of their secondary low-sticks is the next step. The collective Lobo pack of Evans Kiplagat, Vincent Chirchir and Collins Kiprotich will need to keep their scoring spread tight. Not to mention, it’s a “must” for those three men to earn All-American honors on Saturday.

That, of course, is due to the fact that the Lobos may have the “weakest” projected fifth man out of the teams listed in this question. Steeplechase superstar, Mathew Kosgei, has had a rollercoaster of a season, to say the least. However, if the Albuquerque-based group can get the version of Kosgei that we saw at the Nuttycombe Invite (22nd), then a win becomes all the more likely.

Finn: The funny thing about all these teams is how solid they are through the front end of their respective lineups. The Cowboys have a standout trio with the potential for another three men to be right alongside them. Iowa State is excellent through four, and their fifth runner is incredibly talented, though relatively unproven. New Mexico boasts an elite top-four, but a rather unreliable fifth man.

If you read my piece about the women’s race below, it’s the exact same story: Each team must go out and win it. The national title is not going to fall into anyone’s lap this weekend -- the competition is simply too strong. The team that ultimately lifts the trophy will have truly earned it, and it may very well come down to five individuals: Ryan Schoppe (Oklahoma State), Adisu Guadia (Oklahoma State), Meshack Kimutai (Iowa State) and Mathew Kosegi (New Mexico).

Finlay: In my opinion, Oklahoma State is in the driver's seat entering Saturday. If Adisu Guadia and Ryan Schoppe can replicate their BIG 12 XC Championship performances, then nobody is beating the Cowboys. Their BIG 12 performance as a whole gave shades of their 2023 NCAA XC Championship team, and that is the highest compliment that you can give to this program.

Meanwhile, Iowa State’s title chances likely come down to Meshack Kimutai. The top-four Cyclone men have all tasted All-American success, and look poised to do it again. However, Kimutai is the unknown quantity. If they can have all five of their scorers in the top-40, then Oklahoma State will have to be at their absolute best once again to beat them.

New Mexico is similarly good through four runners, but there are more question marks in the middle of their lineup. Vincent Chirchir struggled at the national meet last year, and Collins Kiprotich has (slightly) struggled at times this season. If they both perform, then they will be in a similar boat as Iowa State -- can their first-year fifth man, Matthew Kosgei, perform?

New Mexico's Habtom Samuel is the clear favorite for the men's individual national title. What percent chance would you give for an upset to happen? Who are the men mostly likely to pull off the upset?

Rachel: My gut feeling is 30%.

I’ll recognize that Habtom Samuel is going to be hard to beat on most athletes’ best days, but there are two (maybe three) men who I would not count out of the national title conversation. Oklahoma State's Brian Musau has to be Samuel’s biggest threat right now as he has been on fire in the postseason! Winning his third-straight BIG 12 individual cross country title, is it finally his time to win a national title on the grass?

Washington State's Solomon Kipchoge also has the chops to emerge with the win, but maybe not as much as Musau. After a very dominant 2024 fall campaign (which unfortunately resulted in a DNF at the NCAA XC Championships), Kipchoge has shown us this season that he’s ready to come back to the NCAA XC Championships with vengeance!

Plus, I would say that Wake Forest's Rocky Hansen is definitely in the mix -- and I know Mike will have more to say on that.

Mike: If you’ve looked at our predictions by now, you know that I’m the only one of our Division One writers picking against Habtom Samuel. With that said, I think there’s a 50% chance that an upset is going to happen.

In other words, I’ve gone back and forth over who’s going to win the men’s individual national title many times.

Let’s start with who I think is going to pull off the upset. I am, of course, talking about Oklahoma State’s Brian Musau. A huge reason why I like the ‘Poke superstar is simply because he has had Samuel’s number as of late. In fact, Musau has out-kicked the Lobo megastar on numerous occasions in their careers.

Sure, those instances have mostly occurred on the track, and they’ve occurred in contests shorter than 10 kilometers (3k and 5k). However, I have to believe that the fact that Samuel has been bested by Musau in agonizing fashion (multiple times) will be in the back of his head. Whatever voodoo magic that the Cowboy ace is working with to beat the Lobo, it’s working.

On top of that, I like that Musau has only put forth one “true” effort in the season, the luxury of being conservative and saving energy throughout the season could play a huge factor. Of course, when we got to see Musau going “all-out”, we saw him earn a dominant win at the most competitive conference in the nation (BIG 12).

With all due respect to Washington State’s Solomon Kipchoge, the only other athlete who I can realistically see upsetting Samuel is none other than Rocky Hansen. We’ve waited two painstakingly long years to finally see a healthy version of the Demon Deacon star to toe the line at the NCAA XC Championships. This weekend, that wait finally ends.

Hansen comes into the national meet riding an undefeated streak, making mincemeat on upper-echelon talent during his tear. My confidence in Hansen is simple -- he has waited years to finally get an opportunity to make the most of a national meet on the grass. Do we really think he won’t put forth something spectacular? 

Finn: For me, it’s a 30% chance.

Habtom Samuel has been head-and-shoulders above everyone this fall, and his commanding win over Solomon Kipchoge at the Nuttycombe Invite shows us just how in form he is. Of course, there’s the thorn in his side: Brian Musau. Their rivalry has been a joy to watch, and while Musau often gets the edge on the track, Samuel usually seems to have it over him on the grass.

While Musau is certainly the arch rival, I actually think it might be Wake Forest's Rocky Hansen who is the most likely to upset the apple cart. Hansen has finally made it to the national meet, firing on all cylinders, and his no-holds-barred approach to racing this year is exactly what’s going to be required if he wants to vie for individual gold.

Finlay: I’d give it a 40% chance -- and most of that comes from Brian Musau.

The Oklahoma State star is the only man in the NCAA with a resume that can rival Samuel’s, having two 5000-meter national titles on the track to his name. The biggest drawback is that the Cowboy ace is at a disadvantage on the grass compared to Samuel.

Yes, I agree that Samuel is the favorite, but I believe Musau will make it more interesting than some may think. I’d give the rest of the field a 5% chance to pull off the upset with Washington State's Solomon Kipchoge and Wake Forest's Rocky Hansen as the only other two with a realistic shot.

How many men's teams do you think can realistically make it onto the podium on Saturday? Who are those teams and why?

Rachel: This question is TOUGH for me because I currently have the Wake Forest Demon Deacons predicted to finish in 7th place on Saturday. However, I also refuse to count them completely out of the podium conversation.

So, do I have seven teams in my podium conversation? Yup, I guess I do!

Realistically, the top-three spots feel like a lock, so I really have four other teams in the running for one remaining spot: Oregon, Syracuse, Virginia and Wake Forest. Heck, I even have Syracuse beating New Mexico for 3rd place! Those are the teams with enough depth to pull off a podium result, and I think who gets that final spot will come down to which team has the best pair of low-sticks up front.

Mike: To me, it’s a six-team battle for the four podium spots. And in all honesty, it’s hard for me to imagine any squads toppling Oklahoma State, Iowa State and New Mexico from the top-three positions.

Each of those teams possess multiple low-sticks who are capable of top-10 finishes on Saturday. On top of that, there’s a world in which each of these squads have all five scorers earning All-American honors. Sure, that would require an “A+” day in order for that to occur, but I cannot say that about the groups fighting for the last podium spot.

Speaking of the teams fighting for that coveted 4th place finish and final podium spot, I’m incredibly excited to see the battle that’s going to occur between Virginia, Syracuse and Oregon. The biggest upside these teams present? DEPTH.

Each of those groups are littered with scoring options, and they’re equipped with elite low-sticks. While they don’t have athletes who are going to realistically contend for the individual title, they each have incredibly high floors. One person has an “off” day? No worries, there’s five other guys who can pick up the slack.

So yes, the ceiling of these groups might be capped at a 4th place finish, but when your floor seemingly feels like a top-six result, that’s a pretty rewarding position to be in.

Finn: I think the men’s and women’s fields are very similar in the sense that there is a clear “Big Three” vying for the title, and then a scrap for that final podium spot. While I think two teams are capable of claiming that spot in the women’s race, I actually think there are three teams in the men’s field jousting for it: Syracuse, Virginia and Oregon.

When looking at the season as a whole, I think it’s fair to say that Virginia has been the clear fourth-best team. However, Syracuse has been outstanding lately, and their depth and consistency, particularly how compact they remain as a scoring unit, is frightening.

Oregon is definitely the wild card. They have a stellar roster, but it’s been tough to confidently assess their true potential when they haven’t faced any teams likely to finish in the top-eight this weekend.

Finlay: Aside from the clear top-three, I see four other teams with a good shot to land on the podium: Virginia, Colorado, Syracuse and Oregon.

Virginia is somewhat clearly the fourth-best team in the country on paper, and they boast a veteran squad with at least four potential All-Americans. They’ve been without Will Anthony and have shown inconsistency on the national stage these past few years, but they still have a really good shot.

Colorado and Syracuse are similar teams in my eyes -- complete, depth-focused squads that can pick off any of the top teams that falter. I favor Syracuse because they have two clear All-American favorites, and their lineup as a whole is built for this moment.

Oregon is on the fringe of this conversation, but they have a lineup brimming with talent that I believe is finally ready to break through on the national stage. It’s an outside shot, but it’s possible.

Who is your men's "sleeper" pick among teams?

Rachel: I guess this depends on what we’re counting as a “sleeper” pick.

For me, Colorado is a sleeper pick to contend for a podium spot if a lot of things can “click” for them on Saturday. But I would also put Michigan State in this conversation! With Riley Hough looking to be an elite low-stick up front and Thomas Westphal being a pleasant surprise secondary scorer, the Spartans have the firepower to contend for a much higher finish in Columbia than some might expect.

Yes, they did just settle for 4th place at the Great Lakes regional meet, but it was pretty clear that they were coasting through. I’d expect them to flex a lot more explosiveness come Saturday.

Mike: I’m actually going to give the same exact answer that I gave in our 2024 national meet. I am, of course, talking about the ever-so-polarizing, Alabama Crimson Tide. 

Now, did that pick blow up in my face last year? Yes...yes it did. But this year feels different for Coach Dan Waters’ group. That’s mainly due to the fact that they’ve produced something new this season, something that they haven’t had in years -- a complete and balanced lineup!

In years past, the Crimson Tide's top-five scoring spread has ballooned to their final scorers, and if any of their low-sticks recorded a poor result (which happened often), their team score inflated drastically.

This fall, Dismus Lokira and Dennis Kipruto have been unsurprisingly fantastic as leading aces for this squad. However, the emergence of Nelson Pariken, Ezekiel Pitireng and Carson Burian have been the most pleasant surprise.

But what encourages me most is that the aforementioned middle-lineup scorers on this team have vastly improved over each contest. We already knew what we’d be getting out of Lokira and Kipruto, but to feel a sense of confidence in Burian, Pitireng and Pariken is a treat.

This team has dominated the fields at the SEC XC Championships and the South Regional XC Championships. And quite frankly, I’ve never felt more sure of a top-10 finish for the Alabama men.

Finn: I’ll just say it: I don’t really have a team that I feel confident backing as a sleeper. But if I had to pick one that I think can (and hope will) outperform where I currently have them slotted, it’s Arkansas.

As Finlay goes on to say below, it’s been a rough season for the Razorbacks. However, things have picked up at exactly the right time, and as he mentioned, the math works in their favor in a big field. That's especially true if everyone clicks the way they did at the regional meet.

I think Timothy Chesondin is a legitimate top-10 threat on the national stage and that’s exactly the kind of result that the Razorbacks will need if they hope to crack the top-20.

Finlay: I think the Arkansas men fit the bill as a "sleeper" team this year.

The Razorbacks were flat-out bad for the majority of this season, but they managed to turn things around at the South Central Regional XC Championships to earn an automatic qualifying spot.

With the quartet of Timothy Chesondin, Brian Masai, Ben Shearer and James Sankei looking good, or at least trending in the right direction, they could have a lineup structure that mathematically benefits from a bigger field at the NCAA XC Championships.

If those four men all run well enough, then they could eek out a top-half team finish no matter where their fifth man finishes. That would be an incredible turnaround for a squad that offered very little hope earlier this fall.

Who is your men's "sleeper" pick for an individual All-American honor?

Rachel: I don't know how many people would consider him a "sleeper" pick, but I really like North Carolina’s Tomer Tarragano!

He looked great earlier this fall with standout showings at the Loyola Lakefront Invitational (3rd) and athe Nuttycombe Invitational (25th). His 9th place finish at the ACC XC Championships was just downright impressive, proving himself to be a reliable secondary low-stick behind Colton Sands.

The ACC XC Championship field was loaded, so he’s definitely battle-tested. If he can race with the same intensity on the national stage, then he will sneak away with an All-American honor.

Mike: I gotta go with Butler’s Jesse Hamlin for this question. It feels like we’ve seen the Bulldog low-stick compete in the NCAA for several years…and well, that’s because we have!

We witnessed Hamlin’s rise to the upper-echelon of the NCAA, specifically on the track, in early 2024. Of course, it feels as if the homegrown star has been clawing his way back to that form for years now, all while showcasing his adversity after dealing with numerous injury-plagued seasons. 

Now, in his first cross country season since 2023, it feels like this is the best Hamlin has looked in years. He has clawed his way back to a form that’s indicative of an All-American honor. Of course, it has taken him some time to gain steam, and when you analyze his postseason results (5th at the BIG East XC Championships and 2nd at the Great Lakes Regional XC Championships), we get flashes of that same upper-tier talent that we saw on the oval in the spring of 2024.

I’m a sucker for a comeback story, and in Hamlin’s swan song on the grass, I’m taking him to finally earn that cross country All-American honor he’s been capable of his entire career. 

Finn: Is it disrespectful to call him a sleeper? I’m not entirely sure, but I’m going with Portland ace and former TSR writer, Jonas Price.

He’s been riding a wave of consistency and momentum ever since his underwhelming early-season outing at the Gans Creek Classic. Since then, he has quietly, but convincingly, elevated his stock, earning a 20th-place finish at the Nuttycombe Invite as well as a 5th-place finish at the West Regional XC Championships.

Those are outstanding results, and frankly, they’re indicative of someone who’s trending towards an All-American finish.

Finlay: I’m not sure exactly how much of a sleeper he is, but seeing as I’m the only writer to predict an All-American finish for him, I’m going with Cincinnati’s Nickson Kogei.

I understand that international rookies sometimes struggle at their first NCAA XC Championship race. However, I think Kogei has a better chance of success than some people realize.

This season, he has taken the scalps of Notre Dame’s Ethan Coleman, Colorado’s Dominic Serem and Butler’s Will Zegarski -- all of whom are unanimous All-American picks. Kogei hasn’t been challenged much, but he has stepped up to the plate each time so far this fall.

Women's Analysis

NC State, Oregon and BYU are expected to battle for the women's team title at the NCAA XC Championships. What needs to happen for each of those teams if they are to win on Saturday?

Rachel: On one hand, I think NC State just needs to show up and field their full lineup. If they do that, then they have a great shot of walking away with this national team title.

At the same time, I do see a realistic world where the Oregon Ducks storm away with this title. And when it's all said and done, I think each team's fourth and fifth scorers will be the determinants for who takes him team gold.

Both NC State and Oregon have phenomenally elite top-three’s, so there are no questions or doubts there. It will ultimately come down to how well the back of their respective lineups can run on Saturday -- that will be the deciding factor, in my opinion.

Mike: NC State’s path to a national title feels like a clean one. They will lean heavily on their tried-and-true low-sticks, Grace Hartman, Angelina Napoleon and Hannah Gapes.

For the Wolfpack to win, Hartman will need to anchor strongly again, followed closely by Napoleon and Gapes to maximize their front-end strength. Beyond that formidable trio, Michalak will need to show up as the country’s best four scorer, something she has done all year.

Finally, Sadie Engelhardt can provide an x-factor as a fringe All-American threat, keeping scoring in check all while providing insurance in case there are blow ups. 

Oregon’s ability to win hinges on a dominant performance from their own three-headed scoring monster of Silan Ayyildiz, Diana Cherotich and Juliet Cherubet. Can those three women be better than NC State’s top-three? If they are, then that’s a great first step to coming away with the team title.

Behind them, Mia Barnett, Anika Thompson, Ella Thorsett and Dalia Frias will need to play the disruptor role, picking off the field in the final stages and keeping the spread close to the top-three. 

For BYU to win, Chamberlain likely has to be inside the top-15 to offset the insane firepower that Oregon and NC State have through multiple runners. If Hedengren can come away with no worse than a 2nd place finish on top of a potent secondary low-stick result from Chamberlain, then there’s a chance the Cougars keep this more competitive than people think.

Perhaps an even bigger storyline is the version of Taylor Rohantinsky we’ll be getting. At top form, she gives this team national title hopes, and she’ll need to have her best day on Saturday. The same goal should apply to Carmen Alder, Taylor Lovell and Nelah Roberts -- they’ll need to deliver clutch performances from the middle portion of this lineup.

BYU’s strength ultimately comes from balanced scoring and depth pieces, not wowing the field with multiple top-10 threats. If that balance can come together on Saturday, combined with others stepping up, then BYU has both the experience and the racing acumen to pull off a bit of an upset.

Finn: I think NC State’s balance of firepower and depth is going to be what wins them the national title. They have the firepower in Grace Hartman, Angelina Napoleon and Hannah Gapes, as well as a supporting cast that is within a stone's throw of that trio. They have shown real flexibility in their lineup, with scorers picking up where someone else left off.

When it comes to Oregon, I think they have the strongest firepower, but the gap between their top-three and the rest of their scorers is larger than NC State’s gap, something that I think is their limiting factor. If the Ducks want to win, then they need to be airtight and hope that two of Dalia Frias, Anika Thompson, Ella Thorsett and Mia Barnett are in the All-American picture.

BYU is in a slightly different boat from Oregon. I feel that they have the best depth in this field, but similar to Oregon, the concern is the gap between Jane Hedengren and Riley Chamberlain and the rest of the team. Their supporting cast is excellent, but it may be too distant when it comes to winning a title.

Like Mike mentioned, Taylor Rohatinsky could be the key to BYU’s success.

Finlay: This might be a controversial take, but not only do I think NC State is favored to win, I think they have a fair bit of wiggle room. In my opinion, they can afford to not be perfect on Saturday.

If all of their women are at least in the ballpark of where we think they'll be, then that should be enough for them to win. However, BYU and Oregon both have the potential to make my previous statement age really poorly.

For Oregon, they need two of Dalia Frias, Anika Thompson and Mia Barnett to be in the All-American range. If two of those women can deliver, then the tides may shift in the Ducks' direction.

BYU needs a bit more to go their way. They have the deepest roster in the country, but behind Hedengren and Chamberlain, everyone will need to over perform at the national meet in order for them to repeat as national champions -- but that could very well happen.

Veteran star Doris Lemngole will battle rookie phenom Jane Hedengren for the individual national title. Who are you taking and why?

Rachel: Alright, I know I’m the odd man out here, BUT I am backing Jane Hedengren for this individual title!

We love momentum here at TSR, and no one in the country has more momentum right now than the true freshman. Every “challenge” that has come Hedengren’s way she has exceeded expectations and dismantled every field she has faced. She truly is the next NCAA star in the making…and she’s only just beginning!

I fully believe that if anyone is going to be the first true freshman in 40 years to win a national title, that it will be Jane Hedengren!

Mike: I fully understand that Jane Hedengren is a legitimate all-time phenom. She’s going to win many national titles in the future, maybe as soon as March or June! However, her first one is not going to come this weekend.

I have no choice but to go with the greatest women’s collegiate distance runner of all-time in Doris Lemngole (yes, I said what I said). The Crimson Tide megastar’s season got off to a later start due to competing in the World Championships, but she has made light work of her competitors in just two contests this season.

The Alabama ace can win in multiple ways, and perhaps the biggest reason why I’m choosing her is because of her racing experience. With Hedengren entering her first national meet on the collegiate scene, I value the edge that Lemngole has in years of racing refinement and strategy far too much.

Finn: I am fully prepared for what I hope turns into a battle for the ages. Jane Hedengren has proven that she is every bit a worthy challenger to Doris Lemngole, and saying that does not diminish either of them.

I do, however, think people have been a little too quick to forget just how good Lemngole truly is (partly because of her late start to the season). She is an athlete who has run under nine minutes in the steeplechase and is a multi-time NCAA champion. That kind of talent doesn't just disappear.

The Alabama ace has given us zero reason to doubt her, and that is why I am staying firm in picking her as my champion. I just hope we get the thrilling showdown that this matchup deserves!

Finlay: I fully understand, and am totally on board with, the hype for Jane Hedengren. She’s been utterly fantastic. If she ends up winning the individual national title, it would make complete sense in my mind.

Even so, we can’t forget just how good Doris Lemngole is. Not that long ago, we viewed Lemngole as untouchable -- and for good reason! She was absolutely dominant last fall and redefined success in the steeplechase this past spring.

Yes, Hedengren’s massive margins of victory this season have been jaw-dropping. However, I believe Lemngole’s two wins this season were relatively conservative efforts. In this case, I’m going with the generational phenom who has already proven that she can win a cross country national title: Doris Lemngole.

How many women's teams do you think can realistically make it onto the podium on Saturday? Who are those teams and why?

Rachel: I think eight! Like the men’s race, three of the four podium spots feel fairly secure between NC State, Oregon and BYU. However, there are five additional teams in my mind that could, on the right day, contend for that final podium spot.

Florida, Notre Dame, Iowa State, New Mexico and West Virginia have all (at various points this fall) shown that they have what it takes to snag that fourth spot.

Ultimately, I do think Florida has a slight edge over the rest the contenders given their firepower. However, I would not count out any of the other teams that I just mentioned.

Mike: Truthfully, I only envision there being five teams who can compete for podium spots on Saturday.

When looking at the juggernauts in NC State, BYU and Oregon, their resumes speak for themselves. Each group boasts a multitude of athletes who can record elite low-stick results and provide upfront firepower. Those teams are also littered with depth.

So who’s going to battle for that final podium spot? Well, in my mind, it's the Florida Gators and Notre Dame Fighting Irish. And if I’m being honest, I feel like the Gators are a step-up from the South Bend-based group.

Coach Will Palmer’s team is going to beat you through pack-running tactics. Their ability to keep their scoring and time-spread at a minimum will ultimately be the reason why they’re on the podium this weekend.

Sure, their low-sticks aren’t going to wow you with a flashy top-five result, but they're going to have their top-four runners finish within seconds of one another. And that’s incredibly hard to beat.

For Notre Dame, they’ll need massive low-stick results from both Mary Bonner Dalton and Amaya Aramini. If the former can earn a top-half All-American result and the latter can be a fringe All-American, then they’re in great shape through two runners.

After that dynamic duo, they’ll look for veterans Siona Chisholm, Sophie Novak and Gretchen Farley, as well as rookie Chloe Huyler, to replicate their results from the Great Lakes regional meet. There have been instances this season where gaps have opened up to Florida’s final scorer. And if you’re the Fighting Irish, wrapping up your 3-4-5 scoring quickly could be how they find themselves on the podium.

Finn: In a similar vain to Mike, I also see three absolute locks for the podium conversation: NC State, Oregon and BYU. After that, it becomes a two-team battle for the final podium spot between Florida and Notre Dame.

For those three national title favorites, the key is simple: they must go out and win it. The national title is not going to fall into anyone’s lap -- their rivals are simply too good. All three squads have the necessary pieces required to lift the trophy.

When it comes to that last podium position, Notre Dame absolutely earned its way into the conversation after a fantastic season, but I still think it is Florida’s spot to lose.

The Gators have a four-headed scoring monster in Hilda Olemomoi, Tia Wilson, Judy Chepkoech and Desma Chepkoech, each of whom is more than capable of finishing as an All-American. After that, it simply comes down to how close their fifth runner can stay. And thankfully for the Gators, Claire Stegall has rounded into form at exactly the right time.

Finlay: I’m going to limit myself to six teams.

We have the classic trio of Oregon, NC State and BYU as we mentioned above. After those programs, I think Florida, Notre Dame and Iowa State will be battling for that fourth spot.

Florida is in the driver's seat for that fourth spot. They are elite through four runners, and we really like what we've seen from Claire Stegall and Reagan Gilmore as of late. If they get four All-Americans, then it'll be hard to beat them.

Iowa State is another squad with a dangerous quartet, though they're less proven as a whole. If Mercyline Kirwa, Mercy Kibet, Betty Kipkore and Maelle Porcher all hit on the same day, and a team ahead of them falters, then they should be on the podium.

Notre Dame has a lower ceiling, but they’ve raced well enough to be in this conversation. Mary Bonner Dalton and Amaya Aramini have been incredible, and the rest of this squad has been consistently performing at a high level. They are a lock to be in the top-10 in my opinion, and if things go their way, I can see them finishing as high as 4th place.

The Missouri Tigers, Tennessee Volunteers, LSU Tigers, Texas A&M Aggies, Wisconsin Badgers, Boston College Golden Eagles and Providence Friars are the women's teams who have qualified for the national meet, but are not listed in our top-25 team rankings. Which team out of that group do you expect to earn the best finish at the NCAA XC Championships?

Rachel: I’m going with Tennessee on this one.

Mary Ogwoka is a stellar low-stick to lead the charge and she could realistically be an All-American on Saturday. The rest of the recipe for the Volunteers truly comes down to depth and how high their supporting cast can climb.

The main reason they took down Alabama at the South regional meet was their ability to put their 2-3-4-5 runners in the chute well before the Crimson Tide’s fourth runner. Compared to the rest of the teams mentioned in this question, I think they have the best firepower at the front.

Mike: I’m going with the group that has a home course advantage: the Missouri Tigers.

A big factor in my decision making is the brilliant fall campaign put together by Monica Wanjiku. She has been remarkably reliable and consistent in providing upfront firepower for this group, and her threat as a fringe All-American will be huge for Coach Kyle Levermore’s squad.

An even more important factor in my decision making came from analyzing the support scorers’ results over the course of the fall. I noticed that the middle-lineup and backend scoring of this group really shined in the contested meets in Columbia, Missouri (Gans Creek Classic and Pre-Nationals).

I believe that the contingent of Mirriam Chepkirui, Kobi Walker and Suzy Lecoutre will thrive in a familiar environment -- that will ultimately be the reason why they outperform their TSR ranking (or lack thereof)

Finn: I’m with Mike on this one. I don't think we can underestimate just how much a home course advantage can come into play, especially for a team that hasn’t been a mainstay on the national stage. 

The Tigers have raced exceptionally well on their home course this season, and that familiarity should pay real dividends for their supporting scorers when the pressure ramps up. It is also worth highlighting that they have consistently beaten Tennessee this fall and finished ahead of Texas A&M at the SEC XC Championships.

Of the teams mentioned above, LSU is likely the group that will give the Missouri women the toughest fight for a spot inside the top-25. However, based on their trajectory and home-course comfort, the latter should feel confident about their chances.

Finlay: I think the LSU Tigers will be the only team here to crack the top-25 on Saturday. There is just so much upside from their front trio.

Yuyu Sawada has been quietly fantastic this fall while Edna Chepkemoi and Abigael Chemnagei have been holding their own. Despite some shakiness from their supporting cast, the Tigers' top-three givse them a mathematical advantage over these other squads.

Who is your women's "sleeper" pick among teams?

Rachel: Not sure how much of a sleeper this is, but I really like Northwestern’s current model!

They have had an incredible season by riding the coattails of depth, depth and more depth…which is so hard to do! I don’t feel like it’s unrealistic to see the Wildcats emerging as a top-10 team on Saturday without an individual All-American.

They have the chance to pull off something ridiculous in Columbia, Missouri this Saturday if their pack stays together.

Mike: I am very high on South Carolina. This team never ceases to impress me in each passing week this season.

In all fairness to the Gamecocks, I did not think I’d be sitting here writing about this team in our national meet preview just a couple short months ago. Sure, a runner-up finish at the Joe Piane Invite was noteworthy and had me wondering if I underestimated this team, although the lack of top-tier competition in South Bend also kept me wary of this squad.

I remained that way as this group opted to keep it low-key for the season, racing in smaller meets and biding their time. And then, as the postseason reared, I became a believer. I mean, how could I not be after a 3rd place finish at the SEC XC Championships and a runner-up finish at the Southeast Regional XC Championships?

It’s hard to dislike the scoring structure of this Columbia-based group. They have a legitimate top-half All-American threat in Salma Elbadra who has collected a wildly impressive collection of scalps this fall. They also have great middle-lineup scorers who can keep this team's scoring spread to a minimum and backend scorers who can provide insurance.

I believe that the Gamecocks can finish in the top-half of the field on Saturday, something that would be a monumental step in the right direction for this program. 

Finn: I’ll preface this by saying that this team is my sleeper pick for a top-10 finish, and that's the Georgetown Hoyas. 

Ever since the Hoyas started racing with their full lineup, they have been nothing short of impressive. They look like a group rounding into form at exactly the right time, but what really stands out is their cohesiveness.

Their 2-3-4-5 scorers have been packed together exceptionally well, a trait that powered them to a 6th place finish at the Nuttycombe Invite. If that backend quartet can maintain their tight pack-running identity and keep the gap manageable between themselves and star low-stick Melissa Riggins, then Georgetown absolutely has the profile of a team capable of breaking into the top-10 this weekend.

Finlay: I know they've been getting some much-deserved love in our rankings lately, but my sleeper is still South Carolina.

Salma Elbadra has been a phenomenal ace for the Gamecocks and they’ve been very stable as a whole behind her, especially Anya Arroyo and Teresa Cherotich. With Abir Reffas, who has run sub-15:30 chops over 5000 meters, appearing to round into better form at the South Central Regional XC Championships, their ceiling may be higher than anticipated.

I wasn’t brave enough to predict it, but they could threaten the top-10 in this field if things go their way.

Who is your women's "sleeper" pick for an individual All-American honor? Explain why.

Rachel: It feels wrong to call her a "sleeper," but give me Oregon’s Dalia Frias.

It feels like, since her transfer to Eugene, we have been waiting for Frias to show the same “spark” and live up to her true potential from her prep days. This fall, we haven’t seen a ton of the Duck junior, but she is certainly showing plenty of spark!

Her top-five finish at the BIG 10 XC Championships proves that she’s plenty capable of jumping into the All-American conversation on Saturday and can go toe-to-toe with some of the best women in the nation.

Mike: I’m going with Michigan State’s Rachel Forsyth here. Simply put, I fully trust the Spartans’ ability to perfect the postseason peak.

Admittedly, this season has been a bit underwhelming for the East Lansing-based low-stick, that much is especially true when you consider that she was 16th at the 2024 NCAA XC Championships.

Despite that, I urged myself to take a look at the results of Forsyth’s freshman campaign. Prior to her All-American honor at the 2024 national meet, she posted mostly unexciting marks at the Joe Piane Invite (31st) and the Nuttycombe Invite (53rd) before recording astounding finishes at the BIG 10 XC Championships (4th) and the Great Lakes Regional XC Championships (2nd).

This year tells a similar story as Forsyth is seemingly improving with each week. The regular season results pale in comparison to those at the 2025 BIG 10 XC Championships and the Great Lakes Regional XC Championships (6th and 3rd, respectively). Suffice to say, I think we’re in store for another great performance from the Spartan sophomore this weekend. 

Finn: I’m beginning to sense a theme here, because I am once again going with a BIG 10 athlete. In this case, that is Maryland’s Rose Coats.

Last fall, she put together a very solid season that culminated in a 61st place finish at the national meet. Now, in 2025, Coats has gone back to the very same races and outperformed every single mark that led to that 61st national meet place in 2024.

The performance that really sold me on her postseason upside was her 10th place finish at the BIG 10 XC Championships. That is an excellent result in a conference that is extremely top-heavy, especially when you remember that she was 28th there last year.

In short, Coats looks like she is peaking at exactly the right time. She appears stronger than she did a year ago and now enters the NCAA XC Championships with valuable experience already in her pocket -- a combination that makes her a very real threat to outperform expectations this weekend.

Finlay: On the women’s side, my All-American predictions were pretty chalk…so I’m going to take the easy route and pick someone who I didn’t actually predict: Sydney Vaught (née Thorvaldson).

It’s been a few years since we’ve seen the version of Vaught who placed 11th at the NCAA XC Championships, but this is the closest that she’s been to that form. With her recent trajectory and proven ability on the grass, I would not be surprised if I was wrong in my predictions as she takes home an All-American honor.