2025 John Thomas Terrier Classic Preview & Predictions (Men): Strand vs Sahlman in the Mile, Givens to Battle New Mexico Duo Over 3k & Samuel vs Clinger vs Kipkurui in the Men's 5k

Welcome back, friends! If you're reading this on Friday, then you may also be watching/monitoring the results of the women's races that are taking place in Boston this evening.

While those results flood in, I wanted to also offer some in-depth conversation on the men's distance fields that we'll see tomorrow! Just like yesterday, we detailed all of the top men's collegiate entries and made sure to give our predictions for each of those battles below.

Let's get into it, shall we?

Men's 800 Meters: Can Rynard Swanepoel Validate His Breakout 2024 Spring Campaign?

Going into the 2024 outdoor track season, we knew that Wake Forest's Rynard Swanepoel was a talented middle distance runner. He was fairly consistent over 800 meters, had run 1:47 (800) multiple times and had often found ways to be somewhat competitive with some of the top half-milers in the ACC.

Even so, we couldn't have predicted Swanepoel to have the breakout season that he did on the outdoor oval. The Demon Deacon star ran 1:45 (800) not once, but twice! He also ran 3:41 for 1500 meters, earned silver at the ACC Outdoor Championships and qualified for the outdoor national meet at the half-mile distance.

However, Swanepoel's best 800-meter effort on the indoor oval sits at "only" 1:48 -- and he's only hit that time once during the winter months.

Sure, Swanepoel is undeniably better now than he ever was before, but it's not entirely clear how he'll translate his newfound fitness to an oval that is half the size. Of course, if he does deliver on his upside this weekend, then he should emerge as the top collegian.

While the Wake Forest veteran may be favored to be the top NCAA finisher, it would be a mistake to say that he's the overwhelming favorite among collegians. That's because guys like Mahamed Sharif (UConn), Sebastian Fernandez (BYU), Andrew Regnier (North Carolina) and Tyler Mathews (BYU) are also in this field!

In terms of talent, those men aren't too far off from Swanepoel. However, consistency has sometimes been a challenge for those athletes while the latter is only a freshman.

If any of those guys are going to take down Swanepoel, then I think it would be Fernandez who has run 1:46 (800) before and has made two appearances as an individual at the national meet. Of course, we just don't know which version of him we'll get on Saturday.

Men's Mile: Ethan Strand vs Colin Sahlman -- is the NCAA Men's Mile Record in Danger of Falling?

In what may be one of the most highly anticipated matchups of the weekend, NCAA distance running fans will be treated to a head-to-head battle between North Carolina's Ethan Strand and Northern Arizona's Colin Sahlman.

The former is competing in his first race since December when he unleashed a jaw-dropping NCAA 3k record of 7:30. But before that race, most people would have classified Strand as a miler. He did, after all, earn 4th place All-American honors last winter, run 3:35 (1500) last spring and advanced to the 1500-meter finals at the USA Olympic Trials.

If Strand was able to accomplish all of that before he took a recent leap in fitness, then what does that mean he can do on Saturday? In theory, one has to believe that he'll be gunning for the NCAA record of 3:50 (mile).

Sahlman, meanwhile, is one of the more dynamic distance runners in the NCAA, thriving in anything from the 400 meters to go the 5000 meters. However, the mile is unquestionably his best event.

Last winter, Sahlman ran 3:53 (mile) to win this exact race before going on to earn 6th place All-American honors at the indoor national meet. Of course, more importantly, Sahlman secured a monster 1500-meter PR of 3:33.96. That near collegiate record eventually led him to a 4th place All-American honor two months later.

When it comes strictly to the mile and 1500 meters, Strand and Sahlman are nearly identical in their caliber. Of course, Strand's latest string of results likely makes him the collegiate favorite (and maybe even the overall favorite) for tomorrow's race...right?

The UNC star may be the pre-race favorite among collegians, but it wouldn't at all be surprising if a high-upside standout like Sahlman got the better of his Tar Heel counterpart.

When we look at the other entries in this field, Eastern Kentucky's Justine Kipkoech is the only other collegian who can be found in the top section. His raw fitness is arguably just as good as the two men mentioned above (specifically over 1500 meters), but it's also clear that the Colonel ace is better on the outdoor oval rather than the indoor oval.

There is certainly a scenario where it all "clicks" for Kipkoech this weekend and he ends up posting a huge mile PR in Boston. But after settling for a 3:57 mile mark in a similar field last weekend, we're trying to temper our expectations for him.

Other names to watch include Northern Arizona's Ford Washburn and Boston College's Steven Jackson in heat two.

The former is coming off of a huge mile effort at altitude where he earned a 3:55 conversion. That was a big-time breakout race for the NAU runner who, previously, had been fairly quiet. But for as strong as that performance was, there are still questions about how that result will translate to sea level (and understandably so).

But when we look at the history of NAU athletes who have come down to sea level, a very large majority of them have almost always matched their altitude conversions.

As for Jackson, you could argue that he has always been at his best for this exact meet. In the winter of 2023, the Golden Eagle standout ran a 3:57 mile PR to win the second heat at the John Thomas Terrier Classic. Then, in 2024, he ran a mile PR of 3:56 to AGAIN win the second heat at the John Thomas Terrier Classic.

Does that mean that Jackson will run 3:55 and win his mile heat once more on Saturday? It's certainly a possibility.

Men's 3k: Isaiah Givens Moves Up in Distance to Face Lobo Duo of Lukas Kiprop & Collins Kiprotich

When looking at the entries for the top section of the men's 3000 meters, we find only three collegians who are entered in the field. Those men are Colorado's Isaiah Givens and New Mexico's Lukas Kiprop and Collins Kiprotich.

Truthfully, any of those three men have good arguments for why they should be tabbed as the collegiate favorite going into Saturday.

Kiprotich is fresh off of a big-time mile win where he defeated pro runner Waleed Suliman and teammate Habtom Samuel. That victory was en route to a blazing altitude conversion of 3:53. However, in that same race, Kiprop earned a 3:55 mile conversion. He is also the most proven 3k runner among these three men, having run 7:47 at this distance last winter.

Givens, meanwhile, is probably the runner who we know the most about. He owns a 3:55 mile PR and earned a 3:54-low altitude conversion in the mile earlier this season. That, in theory, signals that the Colorado runner has tons of aerobic strength that he can utilize this weekend.

The only issue, however, is that Givens has never contested a race longer than the mile as a collegian (if you exclude cross country).

Ultimately, this is a "pick your poison" type of race as far as collegiate athletes are concerned. Kiprotich has the most momentum and had the most success of these three over the last three months. Kiprop, however, is arguably the best 3k runner, straight-up. Givens, meanwhile, has proven to be fairly reliable and clearly holds tons of aerobic strength that he has yet to fully test on the track.

In the end, I'll give the nod to Kiprotich, but I don't feel great about that.

The second heat of the men's 3000 meters will also feature a slew of Wake Forest runners such as JoJo Jourdon, Charlie Sprott and Luke Tewalt. Of that group, look for Jourdon to make the most noise. He may be a rookie, but he is arguably at his best on the track, has a sub-4:00 mile PR from his high school days and was immediately impactful this past fall.

On paper, those ingredients could be enough for him to scare the 7:45 (3k) range.

Also in the second heat is New Mexico's Mathew Kosgei, an 8:17 steeplechaser who recently joined the Lobos from Kenya earlier this month. We may not learn a ton about this NCAA newcomer on Saturday, but this will be a strong data point for us to analyze in the long-term as he builds up his collegiate resume.

Men's 5k: Who You Got? Habtom Samuel, Casey Clinger, Ishmael Kipkurui or Bob Liking?

One could argue that this men's 5k field will be just as entertaining as what we could see in the men's mile. That's because this field is loaded with top-tier long distance stars who are known for being aggressive front-runners (i.e. Sam Parsons, Athanas Kioko, Habtom Samuel, etc.)

Thankfully for endurance-centric talents like Habtom Samuel (New Mexico), Casey Clinger (BYU), Ishmael Kipkurui (New Mexico), Bob Liking (Wisconsin) and maybe Romain Legendre (Adams State), each of the collegians in this 5k heat have thrived in time trial-esque environments.

Surprisingly, Samuel has never run faster than 13:14 (5k). That could absolutely change on Saturday -- and this race will likely favor his skillset -- but the Eritrea native isn't the same kind of 5k runner that he is 10k runner.

Clinger, meanwhile, is someone who has an exceptionally high floor -- he almost never has an "off" day. We also have every reason to believe that he is at top form after capping a strong cross country season with a 6th place finish at the national meet. However, like Samuel, he has also not yet dipped under 13:10 (5k)...yet.

Kipkurui is a name who, on paper, is somewhat clearly the best collegian in this 5000-meter field. He does, after all, boast ridiculously fast PRs of 8:09 (two-miles), 7:38 (3k) and 13:05 (5k).

This, however, is the NCAA. Despite Kipkurui's unreal level of fitness, trying to navigate an aggressively paced and highly crowded field on an indoor track is asking a lot for someone who is brand new to the collegiate circuit. That inexperience could be seen in his last race where he settled for a "just okay" 3:58 mile conversion.

What about Bob Liking? The Wisconsin veteran owns a sneaky-great 5k PR of 13:09 from when he was racing unattached last spring. However, for as good as he is, we haven't seen him replicate a mark like that at any other point in his career.

Adams State's Romain Legendre, a Division Two superstar, owns a 13:16 (5k) PR. He has thrived on this track in the past and has almost always capitalized on his opportunities to compete in loaded fields such as this. He may surprise a few people who aren't familiar with his background.

In the end, I think I have to go with Clinger to emerge as the top collegian. He's the guy who I feel the safest about in a race like this. Plus, his improvements over 10,000 meters during the spring and summer months make me think that he's due to dip under the 13:10 (5k) barrier.

Also, the second heat in the men's 5000 meters is extremely loaded with tons of collegiate distance stars. One NCAA runner is going to go under 13:20. And if I had to guess who that will be, then I would say that it's Stanford's Thomas Boyden.

FINAL PREDICTIONS

NOTE: Predictions are only for attached collegians listed in the entries. TSR is aware that an athlete could/will scratch out of certain events to pursue a more manageable weekend of racing. Even so, The Stride Report will offer predictions for each event as if every athlete in the distance fields will be completely fresh.

*An asterisk denotes that a collegian is also entered in another individual event.

Men’s 800 Meters

1. Rynard Swanepoel (Wake Forest) - 1:47

2. Sebastian Fernandez (BYU) - 1:47

3. Andrew Regnier (North Carolina) - 1:48

4. Mahamed Sharif (UConn)* - 1:48

5. Tyler Mathews (BYU)* - 1:49

Men’s 1000 Meters

1. Joe Ewing (Harvard) - 2:21

2. J'Voughnn Blake (Dartmouth) - 2:22

3. Noah Ward (Harvard) - 2:23

4. Will Brunner (Harvard) - 2:23

5. DJ Matusz (Dartmouth) - 2:24

   
   

Men’s Mile

1. Ethan Strand (North Carolina) - 3:50

2. Colin Sahlman (Northern Arizona)* - 3:51

3. Steven Jackson (Boston College) - 3:54 (H2)

4. Justine Kipkoech (Eastern Kentucky) - 3:55

5. Ford Washburn (Northern Arizona)* - 3:55 (H2)

Men’s 3k

1. Collins Kiprotich (New Mexico)* - 7:41

2. Isaiah Givens (Colorado) - 7:42

3. JoJo Jourdon (Wake Forest) - 7:45 (H2)

4. Lukas Kiprop (New Mexico) - 7:46

5. Charlie Sprott (Wake Forest) - 7:46 (H2)

Men’s 5k

1. Casey Clinger (BYU) - 13:07

2. Habtom Samuel (New Mexico) - 13:10

3. Bob Liking (Wisconsin) - 13:18

4. Ishmael Kipkurui (New Mexico) - 13:18

5. Thomas Boyden (Stanford) - 13:19 (H2)