2025 Great American XC Festival (High School) Previews & Predictions

Predictions & analysis by Abby Waddington, Ethan Moore & Morgan Boonshaft

As we inch closer and closer to the mid-point of the high school cross country season, the competition becomes deeper and the times get faster. And this weekend, some of the top individuals and teams in the nation will head to Cary, North Carolina to compete in the 2025 Great American XC Festival.  

The meet will be held Saturday, October 4th, at the WakeMed Soccer Park, the site of the NXR Southeast meet and one of the faster courses in the region.

Let’s not forget, this is where Irene Riggs of West Virginia blazed to a 16:02 (5k) victory in 2022. A fast course, great team competition, and some highly-contested individual titles amongst some of the best in the nation? This is surely the high school meet to watch this weekend.

Girl's Individual Race (5k)

1. Lily Alder (Timpview) -- 16:44

2. Averi Lowen (Bowdon) -- 16:50

3. Mackenzie Skelly (Penn Charter) -- 16:53

4. Jazzlyn Garmer (Webb School of Knoxville) -- 16:57

5. Elin Latta (Homeschool) -- 17:05

6. Calysta Garmer (Webb School of Knoxville) -- 17:09

7. Abigail Anstett (Georgetown Visitation Prep) -- 17:11

8. Madeline Dorsch (Pinecrest) -- 17:13

9. Amelia Avila (Our Lady Of Good Counsel) -- 17:18

10. Carolina Areheart (Webb School of Knoxville) -- 17:25

Analysis: On paper, our predicted finishing times may seem fairly quick for a mid-season meet -- and they certainly seem faster compared to last year’s Great American XC Festival race. And yet, we can’t emphasize enough just how fast and how talented this field is. In turn, it's hard to imagine that a race of this caliber doesn’t produce some all-time performances on the WakeMed course.

But even against competition as strong as this, Timpview's Lily Alder still stands out to us as the individual favorite. While she’s never dipped under 17-minutes on the grass before, her statement win over the likes of Chiara Dailey, Jaelyn Williams and Macy Wingard at the Woodbridge XC Classic two weeks ago suggests that Alder, the Nike Outdoor National champion in the mile, is becoming more comfortable over the longer distances.

Of course, this won't be an easy win for Alder by any means.

Averi Lowen, the reigning NXR Southeast champion who has run 16:28 for 5k, is one of the fastest girls to ever run on this course. She looks the most poised of anyone to challenge Alder for the individual title. Meanwhile, freshman Mackenzie Skelly (16:53 for 5k) has yet to lose this season and arrives in North Carolina on a hot streak of stellar performances.

Elin Latta, the homeschool star out of Texas, has looked phenomenal so far this fall. She has three statement wins this season and has run 10:20 for 3200 meters...on the grass. Let's also not forget about a dynamic duo out of Tennessee. We are, of course, talking about twin sisters, Jazzlyn and Calysta Garmer, both of whom have dipped under 17 minutes for 5000 meters this fall.

And yet, despite the mass amount of talent scattered throughout this field, we're inclined to bet on Alder here. Her strength-based style and potentially lethal late-race speed are a dangerous combination on a lightning-fast course like this.

Yet, if the race goes out quickly and things shake out just right, then we wouldn’t be totally shocked to see the likes of Lowen, Skelly or one of the Garmer sisters pull off an upset.

Boy's Individual Race (5k)

1. Marcelo Mantecon (Belen Jesuit) -- 14:34

2. Kavi Gibson (Cary Academy) -- 14:38

3. Graham Hummel (Homeschool) -- 14:43

4. Matthew Dodds (IMG Academy) -- 14:45

5. Brady Monahan (Jesuit) -- 14:50

6. Aaron Brodrick (Oconee County) -- 14:53

7. Ethan Rich (Western Harnett) -- 14:54

8. Armando Cruz (Belen Jesuit) -- 14:57

9. Luke Surface (North Raleigh Christian Academy) -- 14:58

10. Ryan Sykes (Horace Greeley) -- 15:00

Analysis: This is Marcelo Mantecon’s race to lose. Last year, as a sophomore, Mantecon won this meet in a 5k time of 14:40 with a 10-second margin of victory. His performance at the Great American XC Festival last year was the course’s eighth-fastest result all-time. Now, with a 14:35 (5k) effort already under his belt this fall, Mantecon is sure to improve again at this year’s competition.

Behind Mantecon is another stellar competitor: Cary Academy’s Kavi Gibson (TSR #33 recruit). He ran 14:42 for 5k at the Adidas XC Challenge last season, a meet also held at the WakeMed course. With 12 total appearances on this course, he is a seasoned veteran who is plenty familiar with all of the nooks and crannies that this course has to offer. And in theory, that should give him a big advantage.

Homeschool standout Graham Hummel and IMG Academy’s Matthew Dodds are both names to watch as dark horses. Hummel has had an impressive season so far, having produced a blistering 14:29 (5k) mark and having placed 2nd place at the Nike South meet earlier this fall. Meanwhile, Dodds has impressed with a 14:37 (5k) effort in his second race of the season.

Other key competitors in this competition include Jesuit’s Brady Monahan, Oconee County’s Aaron Brodrick, Western Harnett’s Ethan Rich, Belen Jesuit’s Armando Cruz, North Raleigh Christian’s Luke Surface and Horace Greeley’s Ryan Sykes.

While none of those men have yet to break the 15-minute barrier this season, they are all just above that mark and have proven that they can compete with the best. Watch out for Surface, in particular, who ran 15:12 (5k) on this course last year when he was in eighth grade (yes, you read that right).

Girl's Team Race

1. Webb School of Knoxville (TN)

2. James Robinson (VA)

3. William Penn Charter (PA)

4. South Texas Heat Homeschool (TX)

5. C.G. Woodson (VA)

Analysis: While they might have to deal with some strong competition from the James Robinson Rams (TSR #22), we simply can’t see anyone but the Webb School of Knoxville (TSR #7) as the favorite in this team race.

The Spartans are undefeated so far this season and their 1-2-3 punch of low-sticks stars -- Carolina Areheart (10:18 for two miles and 17:02 for 5k), Jazzlyn Garmer (10:05 for 3200 meters and 16:57 for 5k) and Calysta Garmer (10:10 for two miles and 16:58 for 5k) -- is insanely lethal. 

While this may be the Spartans’ race to lose, the drop-off to their fourth and fifth scorers leaves the door open for an undefeated James Robinson squad to pull off an upset.

Without a clear superstar, the Rams are unlikely to overcome the firepower of the Garmer twins and Areheart. Even so, there is a definitive chance that their strong pack-running helps them displace the Spartans’ backend scorers. Of course, a few other things would still need to happen if we were to see an upset.

While the race is likely to come down to those two teams, keep an eye on the girls of William Penn Charter, led by star freshman Mackenzie Skelly. And, of course, we can’t forget about the quintet of Latta sisters who make up the squad known as South Texas Heat Homeschool.

Led by twins Elin and Iris, this group put four girls in the top-10 spots at the Nike South meet just last week. However, they suffered a near-three-minute drop-off to their fifth scorer. Even so, if the fifth Latta sister makes a jump this weekend, then the Heat may just be a top-three team in this field.

Boy's Team Race

1. Jesuit (LA)

2. Trinity (KY)

3. Christ School (NC)

4. Belen Jesuit (FL)

5. Broughton (NC)

Analysis: The boy's "Race of Champions" will serve as one of the biggest and best previews that we’ll get for this year's NXR Southeast meet.

Louisiana's Jesuit (TSR #9) looks poised to grab the title. The Blue Jays missed a trip to NXN last fall, but they are, without question, a top-tier team in the country this season (and they still were in 2024). At the Nike South meet on September 19th, the team averaged 15:30 for 5000 meters and put their top-seven men under 16:10. With that kind of depth, they may be the most complete squad in this field.

Trinity and Christ School could be viewed as fringe challengers to Jesuit. The Shamrocks have shown off their pack-running strength with a 15:24 (5k) average at their home invite, while the Greenies enter the race undefeated after dominant wins.

However, arguably the biggest threat to the Louisiana-based program is Belen Jesuit (TSR #14), a team that adds even more intrigue. The Wolverines are led by low-stick star Marcelo Mantecon, though they’ll need to shore up the backend of their lineup after graduating much of last year’s squad.

We also shouldn’t count out Broughton (TSR #24) nor IMG Academy, both of whom are more than capable of breaking into the conversation this weekend.