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2025 Boston U. Valentine Invite Preview & Predictions (Women): Michaela Rose vs Wilma Nielsen, Grace Hartman vs Doris Lemngole & Silan Ayyildiz vs Margot Appleton vs Melissa Riggins
I am currently beginning to write this article at 5:17pm EST. For articles as extensive as this one, I usually start writing by noon. That's how crazy busy my day has been.
Given my (very) late start, there is only so much that I can reasonably write before you all go to bed. As such, this article is going to be a bit shorter than our men's preview. But make no mistake, we still have plenty to talk about below!
And yes, we still have predictions which you can find by clicking here.
There's no time to waste, let's start analyzing!
Women's 800 Meters: LSU Superstar Michaela Rose to Face Rising Oregon Ace Wilma Nielsen
It took a while, but we're finally set to see LSU's Michaela Rose contest her first 800-meter race of the season. And when she does, it could be one of the best half-mile efforts of her still-young career.
Rose is an aggressive front-runner who is the most comfortable in all-out affairs, especially ones that she can dictate. On championship stages, that approach has carried a fare amount of "boom-or-bust" risk. But in a race that features an elite 800-meter field that is designed to be fast, Rose should more than hold her own.
However, while Rose has been refining her fitness over the last couple of months, a new collegiate middle distance star has risen. I am, of course, talking about Oregon's Wilma Nielsen. The Swedish standout has run 4:25 in the mile not once, but twice this season. And the craziest part is that, back in early December, Nielsen told TSR that her primary event was the 800 meters!
Nielsen already holds an 800-meter PR of 2:00.86 from last summer when she raced overseas. And if the Ducks' newest star still thinks that the half-mile is her best event, then Rose could be at risk for an upset of top collegiate honors...right?
Ultimately, the question is going to be, what wins out? The unreal momentum of Nielsen? Or the raw fitness and extensive experience of Rose?
Penn State star Hayley Kitching is also in the top section of the women's 800 meters as is Harvard's Sophia Gorriaran.
Kitching has looked as good as ever this season. And if you've been monitoring her for the last year, then you know that the Aussie middle distance runner has many of the intangibles that other elite NCAA half-milers boast. Truthfully, the only thing that she's missing is a sub-2:00 (800) PR.
I don't see Kitching running under the two-minute barrier on Friday, but I wouldn't be completely shocked if she did. Gorriaran, however, will be an interesting name to watch in a field where she is one of backend seeds.
Women's Mile: How Many Sub-4:30 Marks Will We See?
The women's mile field is absolutely stacked, at least collegiately. In just the first heat alone, there are seven collegians who have run under 4:33 in the mile this winter with an eighth woman who has run under 4:34.
When it comes to the NCAA talents in this field, three women appear to be the focal stars of the group. That trio includes Oregon's Silan Ayyildiz, Georgetown's Melissa Riggins and Virginia's Margot Appleton.
Excluding the pros, Ayyildiz is the fairly clear favorite. After a statement fall campaign, the Turkish distance star has ripped off tremendous times of 8:45 (3k) and 4:27 (mile). Compared to every other collegian in this field, Ayyildiz has been flat-out better since the very beginning of the 2024-25 academic calendar.
Georgetown veteran Melissa Riggins is known as a dynamic star with a knack for thriving over 1500 meters and the mile. However, it's also fair to say that the Hoya standout wasn't in top form this past fall and the start of her winter campaign, while by no means poor, left us wanting the slightest bit more.
Thankfully, a recent 4:30 mile result from two weeks ago signals a step in the right direction. And given that she usually peaks for the postseason, Riggins may actually be among the more dangerous woman in this field from that perspective.
But if there is any collegian in this field who is known for peaking in the postseason, then it is absolutely Margot Appleton.
The Virginia star is one of the most reliable championship performers in the NCAA, holding countless All-American honors. And when you look at her resume, it makes sense why she is able to handle most race scenarios thrown at her.
Appleton impressed with an 8:46 (3k) PR back in December, but a 4:31 mile performance from the Dr. Sander Scorcher didn't necessarily blow us away. The same could be said about a recent 2:06 (800) result which, in fairness, was likely done in an effort to refine her speed.
When Riggins, Appleton and Ayyildiz are at their absolute bests, they are each capable of emerging as the top collegiate in a race like this. But if I had to choose, I'd give the nod to Ayyildiz who has been flawless since October.
Women's 3k: Doris Lemngole to Battle Grace Hartman in Head-to-Head Clash of Distance Elites
Despite all of the incredible runners who we'll see go head-to-head this Saturday, there's one collegiate matchup that could end up being the best. I am, of course, talking about Alabama's Doris Lemngole facing off with NC State's Grace Hartman in the women's 3000 meters.
If you're a TSR reader, then you know who Doris Lemngole is: The 2024 NCAA cross country champion who set an NCAA indoor 5k record of 14:52 on this same track back in December. From a pure aerobic standpoint, there is no one better than her, at least not right now.
However, at The Stride Report, we are strong believers that some level of turnover is necessary to be amongst the most elite 3k talents in the nation.
Let's chat about the Wolfpack ace produced a flat-track converted 5k time of 15:12. And if you look back at her cross country season, you'll find that Hartman had reached a whole new tier fitness, placing 5th at the NCAA XC Championships.
Hartman's mile PR sits at "only" 4:36 which is exactly as fast as Lemngole ran in the mile last month. Even so, it's fair to say that Hartman is far better now than she was in 2024. And remember, the last time she contested an event under 5000 meters was the ACC Outdoor Championships where she ran 4:13 for 1500 meters.
In other words, we think Hartman is better suited for the 3k than Lemngole is. But at the same time, the Alabama star has shown that she has enough turnover to be a national title contender in the event. And frankly, she's one of the few women who may not need to worry about her speed -- her elite level strength can probably will her to an all-time mark on Saturday.
Be sure to also keep an eye on Alex Millard. The newest Providence star has shown tons of promise during her short time as a Friar. Most recently, the English distance standout ran 15:22 (5k) on this same track two weeks ago!
In theory, the 3000 meters is the perfect sweet spot for Millard. Prior to joining Providence, the overseas ace posted personal bests of 4:05 (1500) and 15:18 (5k). Her current 3k PR sits at 8:52 which was run on the outdoor oval. However, given her resume, I think she's capable of matching that mark or even scaring the 8:50 barrier on Saturday.
Women's 5k: Welcome to the Georgetown Show
This is a pretty straight-forward race as far as the collegians are concerned. The best two NCAA entrants in this field are debatably the Georgetown duo of Chloe Scrimgeour and Lucy Jenks.
Over the last couple of years, Scrimgeour has evolved into one of the most reliable long distance talents that the NCAA has to offer. Even when we could tell that she wasn't 100% this past fall, she still placed 23rd at the NCAA XC Championships and ran 15:24 (5k) at the Boston U. Season Opener.
Not only that, but Scrimgeour flexed a sneaky-good amount of turnover with a 4:34 mile PR. On the national stage, that extra bit of speed could help her, especially in tactical scenarios.
Saturday will essentially be a test to see if Scrimgeour has returned to firing on all cylinders or if there is still some refining to do. Her current 5k PR sits at 15:21. And if she's able to crack the 15:20 barrier, then she should be viewed as someone who is just as dangerous as she was at last year's indoor national meet.
We then come to Lucy Jenks, the Stanford graduate transfer who has thrived since joining the Hoyas.
Despite not earning All-American honors, Jenks had a brilliant fall campaign. It was clear to all of us at The Stride Report that the former Cardinal had taken a big step forward. That suspicion was later validated at the Boston U. Season Opener where she ran an outstanding 5k PR of 15:27.
The top-16 women in each event who don't scratch are selected to qualify for the NCAA Indoor Championships. At the moment, Jenks sits at NCAA #13 on the national leaderboard. In other words, the Georgetown talent isn't totally safe when it comes to her spot at Virginia Beach in March (although I still like her chances to advance). That will likely give her added motivation on Saturday and it may lead to her being slightly more aggressive than she usually is.
There are a handful of other collegians in this field who, from a raw fitness standpoint, could be plenty competitive. Villanova's Sadie Sigfstead, Auburn's Brenda Jepchirchir and Notre Dame's Siona Chisholm can all be found in the first heat.
However, I am a little confused as to why Florence Caron (Penn State) isn't in the top section. She ran 15:36 (5k) back in December, holds a 15:32 (5k) PR from last spring and just dropped a highly encouraging mile personal best of 4:33 two weekends ago.
Expect Caron to make some noise in the second section and finish highly among the top-five collegians regardless of the heat.
FINAL PREDICTIONS
NOTE: Predictions are only for attached collegians listed in the entries. TSR is aware that an athlete could/will scratch out of certain events to pursue a more manageable weekend of racing. Even so, The Stride Report will offer predictions for each event as if every athlete in the distance fields will be completely fresh. Athletes who are competing for Canadian universities are included in these predictions.
*An asterisk denotes that a collegian is also entered in another individual event.
Women’s 800 Meters
Michaela Rose (LSU) - 1:58
Wilma Nielsen (Oregon) - 1:59
Hayley Kitching (Penn State) - 2:00
Sophia Gorriaran (Harvard) - 2:00
Allison Johnson (Penn State) - 2:02
Women’s 1000 Meters
Iris Bergman (Yale) - 2:42
Hallee Knelsen (Western Ontario) - 2:43
Madison Trippett (West Virginia) - 2:43
Chloe Hassman (Penn) - 2:45
Iris Downes (Duke) - 2:46
Women’s Mile
Silan Ayyilidz (Oregon) - 4:26
Melissa Riggins (Georgetown) - 4:29
Margot Appleton (Virginia) - 4:29
Ali Ince (Oregon) - 4:29
Bethan Morley (Florida) - 4:31
Women’s 3k
Grace Hartman (NC State)* - 8:45
Doris Lemngole (Alabama) - 8:46
Alex Millard (Providence) - 8:52
Brynn Brown (North Carolina) - 8:55
Rachel Forsyth (Michigan State) - 8:56
Women’s 5k
Chloe Scrimgeour (Georgetown) - 15:18
Lucy Jenks (Georgetown) - 15:23
Florence Caron (Penn State) - 15:31 (H2)
Brenda Jepchirchir (Auburn) - 15:34
Sadie Sigfstead (Villanova) - 15:39
Women’s DMR
Boston College Golden Eagles - 10:57
Wake Forest Demon Deacons - 11:06
Southern Methodist Mustangs - 11:14
Bryant Bulldogs - 11:30
MIT Engineers - 11:35
