2024 NCAA Regional Scratch Reactions

On Wednesday evening, the NCAA released their declared entries (and their declared scratches) for the upcoming Division One East & West Regional Championships. And while there were a good number of entries that were largely unsurprising, there were also a handful of fascinating event decisions.

Let's take a look at some of the more surprising accepted entries / scratches that we just saw come across our computer and phone screens on Wednesday night...

Florida's Parker Valby to Attempt 10k/5k Double

We knew that this was a realistic possibility and sure enough, it has happened. And if you had asked me what the chances were that Valby would double throughout the rest of the postseason vs just go all-in for one event, I would have said that it was a 50/50 split (if I had to guess).

On one hand, Valby has a history of injuries. And even though we haven't had any legitimate qualms about her health throughout this academic year, choosing to race 30,000 meters between the regional and national meets is a lot. Plus, with the Olympic Trials on the horizon, one would think that the Gator phenom would want to keep her legs as fresh as possible should she continue to race into late June.

But on the other hand, the Florida women almost certainly have team title aspirations and Valby would be heavily favored to give them 20 points with a pair of national titles. And of course, adding two more NCAA gold medals to Valby's resume would put her in rarified air when we talk about the all-time collegiate greats, at least from a distance running perspective.

I do like this decision. Valby is on a hot streak right now and there's no reason why her and Coach Will Palmer wouldn't take advantage of her (seemingly) being healthy.

Oregon Duo of Silan Ayyildiz & Maddy Elmore Scratch Out of 1500 Meters in Favor of 5000 Meters

This pair of scratches certainly wasn't what I was expecting, but in retrospect, maybe I should have expected it. Both Silan Ayyildiz and Maddy Elmore have built their reputations over 1500 meters. Last spring, Elmore broke onto the scene with a streak of excellent metric mile performances, capping her 2023 campaign with a 4:08 PR. Ayyildiz, meanwhile, has been really solid in the mile and 1500 meters this year, posting times of 4:30 and 4:09, respectively.

Of course, both of those women have also had grand success over 5000 meters in recent months, each posting jaw-dropping personal bests of 15:15 earlier this spring.

I'll admit, I'm a bit torn on this pair of decisions.

On paper, both Ayyildiz and Elmore look like heavy favorites to be All-Americans in the 5k. However, Ayyildiz has only ever dipped under the 16-minute barrier for 5000 meters once in her career and Elmore has only ever run under 15:55 (5k) once in her career.

But at the same time, Ayyildiz was great over 3000 meters this past winter and has had a (very small) handful of respectable cross country results. As for Elmore, she's run even faster over 3000 meters meters (8:50) and she is far more accomplished in cross country by comparison, showcasing greater aerobic strength.

You could also argue that the women's 5000 meters isn't quite as deep, nationally, as the women's 1500 meters is this year.

But truthfully, I'm splitting hairs here. Choosing to attack the 1500 meters instead of the 5000 meters wouldn't dramatically change the chances of these women earning All-American honors come June. And with a large handful of top women doubling back from the steeplechase, 1500 meters or 10,000 meters, this Oregon duo will have the advantage of racing on fresh legs.

Northern Arizona's Nico Young Scratches 1500 Meters to Go All-In On 5k

When it comes to the NCAA Championships, this was the right decision and the decision that made the most sense. Sure, Nico Young could have chosen to run the 1500 meters, but his chances of winning a national title in that event were a good bit lower than his chances of winning a national title over 5000 meters.

The only argument that you could make for Young to enter the 1500 meters (while scratching the 5k) is the fact that he would only have to race a total of 6000 meters rather than 10,000 meters between the regional and national meets rounds. And for someone whose clear focus is the Olympic Trials in late June, the idea of preserving Young's legs as much as possible could have potentially played a role.

Even so, Young' decision to attack just the 5000 meters not only gives him the greatest chance of winning another NCAA gold medal, but it also gives his teammate, Colin Sahlman, one less title contender to deal with over 1500 meters.

Texas Tech's Juliet Cherubet to Attempt 1500/5k Double

When Texas Tech's Juliet Cherubet ran 15:25 for 5000 meters earlier this season, it seemed like a forgone conclusion that she would contest that event on the regional and national stages. When you pair that mark with her brilliant cross country success, it felt clear that the aerobic-centric events would be her focus in late May and early June.

But then Cherubet toed the line for the 1500 meters at the BIG 12 Championships. There, she would run a blistering time of 4:09 to defeat a very good field which featured Sadie Sargent, Olivia Howell, Billah Jepkirui, Riley Chamberlain and Gracie Morris. In our eyes, it was one of the more impressive wins of the entire conference championship weekend.

Even so, despite her excellent run, I still believe that Cherubet should have dropped the 1500 meters and have gone all-in for the 5k.

Despite her season-defining win, there is far more evidence which suggests that this Red Raider rookie is a better 5k runner than she is a 1500-meter runner. The inexperience of going through four different rounds of the metric mile (regional and national) isn't going to be easy for a freshman, especially with the women's 1500 meters appearing to be incredibly loaded this year.

And while she'll still have the 5k to fall back on if the 1500 meters doesn't go her way, not being fresh for that race is certainly not going to do Cherubet any favors.

Stanford's Ky Robinson Scratches 10k to Go All-In On 5k

I have to be honest, I don't understand this decision at all.

It was more than reasonable to assume that Stanford superstar Ky Robinson would contest both the 10,000 meters and the 5000 meters for the remainder of the postseason. He did, after all, win two national titles in those events last spring.

But if this Cardinal ace was going to choose between the two events, then the 10k was absolutely the event that he should have opted to solely pursue -- not the 5k. And generally speaking, I don't think Robinson is dramatically better over 5000 meters than he is over 10,000 meters (and vice versa).

Neither Nico Young nor Parker Wolfe, two long distance superstars, have regional qualifying marks over 10,000 meters this spring. That means that the only other long distance superstar who could have given Robinson trouble in that event was Habtom Samuel.

Now, in fairness to Robinson, trying to defeat a sub-28:00 (10k) guy like Habtom Samuel is not at all an easy task. That said, championship racing can be fairly dynamic, even with aggressive pace pushers headlining the field. And when you look at the 5k, trying to defeat guys like Nico Young and Parker Wolfe (as well as a doubling back Habtom Samuel) is arguably even harder.

There is likely a reason that I simply don't know about which makes Robinson's decision to scratch the 10k easier to understand. But strictly on paper, this one left me a bit puzzled.

Virginia Tech's Lindsey Butler Scratches 800 Meters in Favor of 1500 Meters

We mentioned in past articles (and on the podcast) that this was a possibility -- and I really like that this was the decision that Butler made.

The Virginia Tech veteran surprised many of us earlier this season when she dropped a fantastic 1500-meter PR of 4:07 at the Wake Forest Invite. That was a huge performance which also validated Butler's 4:31 mile PR from the 2023 indoor track season.

Butler has built her reputation over 800 meters, but her performances over that distance in the last month or so have left us wanting so much more. With momentum stalling in that event, the Hokie middle distance star was smart to change things up.

I wouldn't necessarily say that Butler's chances of being an All-American over 1500 meters are any higher or lower than if she were to contest the 800 meters. However, I do feel a bit more comfortable about her getting to the 1500-meter finals than the 800-meter finals at the NCAA Outdoor Championships.

Virginia's Margot Appleton Scratches Out of 1500 Meters to Go All-In On 5k

With the information that they had, I don't think that Margot Appleton and Virginia's coaching staff could have gone wrong with any entry decision. Whether that was going all-in for the 1500 meters, going all-in for the 5000 meters or choosing to double between those two events, I wouldn't have disagreed with any of those approaches.

I will, however, note that Margot Appleton has been an All-American in her last three national meet appearances on the track. And at each of those meets, Appleton ran the mile or the 1500 meters. In fact, if you include her DMR anchor leg at the 2022 indoor national meet, then Appleton has four All-American honors at that distance.

Appleton's chances of being an All-American in the 5k this season are probably just as high as they would be over 1500 meters, although I did think that her experience and prior success would push her towards the latter.

Other Notable or Surprising Declarations

• Seeing Sadie Sargent (BYU) opt out of the 1500 meters in favor of the 5000 meters was the right move. The best parts of her resume are in strength-based events and by contesting the 5k, she can take advantage of a field that will have multiple women running on tired legs.

• Kirami Yego (Arkansas), Patrick Kiprop (Arkansas), Evan Jenkins (Washington), Denis Kipngetich (Oklahoma State), Alex Phillip (North Carolina) and Victor Kiprop (Alabama) all scratched out of the 5k in favor of the 10k. I would have liked to see some of these men try the double, mainly the Arkansas men, but this was generally the right decision for everyone involved.

• Juliette Whittaker (Stanford) has scratched out of the 1500 meters to put her focus on the 800 meters. Outside of the obvious fact that she is simply a better 800-meter runner than a metric miler, Whittaker likely doesn't have fond memories of racing the 1500 meters at the regional level after getting ousted from national qualifying in 2023.

• Elliott Cook (Oregon) is deferring the 800 meters in favor of the 1500 meters. Had he not just taken down the Washington men en route to the PAC-12 title over 1500 meters this past weekend, then this may have been a (slightly) tougher decision. Regardless, this was absolutely the right call.

• I'm a little bummed that we won't get to see Colorado's Bailey Hertenstein contest the 10k. She'll still be racing the 5k, but in a year where the women's 10k feels like it's lacking depth, that would have been a great opportunity for the Buffalo veteran to secure an All-American honor.

• Jenna Hutchins (BYU) scratched out of the 5k in favor of the 10k and I really like this move. As I just mentioned above, the women's 10k has a handful of All-American spots that are seemingly up for grabs. Plus, with the West region having only 10 women who have run under 33 minutes this year, Hutchins should be heavily favored to advance to Eugene, Oregon.

• Kang Nyoak (Northern Arizona) opting out of the 1500 meters in favor of the 5000 meters was really surprising to me. With a converted 3:39 (1500) mark, Nyoak sat as the 11th-best runner in the West region before scratches. But over 5000 meters, Nyoak is the 47th seed before scratches. Even if Nyoak's conversion was three seconds slower, he'd be still be listed higher in the West region (before scratches) over 1500 meters.

• The CBU duo of Matias Reynaga and Valentin Soca also scratched out of the 1500 meters despite their 3:39 conversions. However, they will have two shots at national qualification between the 10k and the 5k.

• Kiara Carter (Lipscomb) is taking on the 1500 meters instead of the 800 meters, a move that I admittedly struggle to get behind. Carter is a top-ranked name over the half-mile distance with her 2:02 mark while her 1500-meter time of 4:14 puts her in the latter-half of the East region field.

• Doris Lemngole (Alabama) and Olivia Markezich (Notre Dame) scratched the 5k to focus on the steeplechase while Kimberley May (Providence) scratched the 5k to focus on the 1500 meters. These women could have doubled, but there wasn't really a need for it. That said, Maia Ramsden (Harvard) is opting for the 1500/5k double.

• I really like the decision for Amaris Tyynismaa (NC State) to scratch the 5k in favor of the 10k. She's looked excellent in both of her efforts at that distance and in general, that field is limited on All-American favorites.