2024 NCAA Indoor Championship Scratch Predictions (D1)

This is my favorite time of the indoor track season. Part of that is because we get a weekend off of reacting to results before the national meet comes around. The other part, however, is because the next two weeks feature some of my favorite content to write!

And more specifically, I'm talking about this article.

We have just one more meet left in the 2024 indoor track season -- the NCAA Indoor Championships. However, with conference meets just wrapping up, we still need to do the delicate dance of figuring out who is and isn't running in certain events come mid-March.

That, of course, is far from a simple exercise.

At the Division One level, the top-16 individuals and the top-12 relays in the NCAA automatically qualify for the NCAA Indoor Championships. However, athletes within that top-16 could also be qualified in numerous events and instead would like to focus on certain races over others.

Opting out of a top-16 spot in a certain event is called a "scratch". This allows the next-fastest, non-scratching athlete to qualify for the indoor national meet in that event.

In some instances, we don't see any scratches in certain events. Other times, we could go as high as NCAA #30 in a certain race given how many scratches one discipline has.

There are often a TON of ripple effects that these scratches (and non-scratches) have on the national qualifying picture. At The Stride Report, it's our job to predict who is scratching which events and who is not...so let's get into it.

Click here to see D1 indoor national meet schedule

Women's 800 Meters

When it comes to the women's 800 meters, figuring out scratches for this field are somewhat easy...depending on who you ask.

The biggest scratch question that we have pertains to Carley Thomas, the Aussie middle distance standout from Washington. She's been outstanding this year, looking like a sharper, more refined version of her past self. However, with seasonal marks of 2:00 (800) and 4:30 (mile), Thomas seemingly has equally strong chances of having postseason success in both of those events.

And that's precisely why I think she'll scratch out of this field and go after the mile. By choosing the latter race, Thomas can run in the prelims on day one and then, if need be, effectively double back for the DMR that same day.

Of course, the whole caveat in all of this is that Thomas has built her reputation over 800 meters and may not even been in Washington's plans for the DMR. Even so, that possibility is enough for me to say that she'll scratch in favor of the mile.

Northern Arizona's Maggi Congdon seems like a pretty clear scratch in this field. The breakout Lumberjack star has been fantastic this winter, running times of 2:02 (800) and 4:30 (mile). However, it's abundantly clear that she is a true miler.

With conversions, she has run 4:30 twice this season. And when you pair her 800-meter speed with her subtly great cross country fitness, then you get a top-tier miler of her caliber.

Stanford's Juliette Whittaker is an interesting name to monitor. She began her season with a rust-busting 2:02 (800) effort, but then focused on running the mile (where she posted a 4:30 PR) and a DMR until this past weekend. On Saturday, Whittaker threw down a fantastic mark of 2:00.09 (800), further validating the idea that she is a true middle distance runner.

Make no mistake, Whittaker's mile strength is very impressive for someone who also her top-tier turnover. But Whittaker's reputation has been built over 800 meters. Plus, the mile/1500-meter distances, as we saw last spring, haven't always allowed her to stand out.

While I don't think that Whittaker is favored to win the national title over 800 meters, I think she at least has a shot of doing so -- and I couldn't say that about her in the mile.

As for the DMR candidates, both Whittaker and her teammate, Roisin Willis, proved last year that they can double back from the 800-meter prelims if needed. I don't see why there would be a need to change that approach.

Both Penn State (featuring Hayley Kitching) and Arkansas (featuring Ainsley Erzen and Sanu Jallow) would be better off in the DMR if their top middle distance stars were in their respectively lineups. However, both Kitching and Jallow have been too good this winter to not pursue an individual event and the Razorbacks should have enough depth to at least mitigate the absence of Erzen.

You could argue that Meghan Hunter (BYU) and Wilma Nielsen (Washington) have incentives to scratch in favor of the DMR. However, the BYU women could theoretically score way more points by having everyone focus on their individual events. And when it comes to Washington, they should be deep enough to be competitive without Nielsen, especially if Thomas ends up doubling back.

The only head-scratching DMR candidate is Gabija Galvydyte. The Oklahoma State women have a lethal DMR combination via Billah Jepkirui, Tamara Woodley, Galvydyte and Taylor Roe. Both Jepkirui and Roe could scratch out of the mile and the 5k, respectively, to focus on being fresh for the DMR. And by doing that, they could still get a night of rest in before the 3k the next day.

The only issue is that Galvydyte doesn't have another individual event that she could then focus on if she were to scratch the 800 meters in favor of the DMR. However, if she does, then I would argue that the Oklahoma State women are the DMR national title favorites. They would be one of the few fully-stacked lineups with a realistic shot at NCAA gold.

Final Predictions:

1. Michaela Rose (LSU)

2. Juliette Whittaker (Stanford)

3. Kelly-Ann Beckford (Houston)

4. Gabija Galvydyte (Oklahoma State)

5. Carley Thomas (Washington) -- SCRATCH

6. Sophia Gorriaran (Harvard)

7. Hayley Kitching (Penn State)

8. Sanu Jallow (Arkansas)

9. Gladys Chepngetich (Clemson)

10. Roisin Willis (Stanford)

11. Meghan Hunter (BYU)

12. Maggi Congdon (Northern Arizona) -- SCRATCH

13. Wilma Nielsen (Washington)

14. Ainsley Erzen (Arkansas)

15. Kate Jendrezak (UCLA)

16. Lindsey Butler (Virginia Tech)

17. Judy Kosgei (South Carolina)

18. Bailey Goggans (Texas A&M) -- LAST WOMAN IN

Men's 800 Meters

Compared to past seasons, this year's men's 800-meter field feels relatively light. Outside of Yusuf Bizimana, Handal Roban and maybe Abdullahi Hassan, the rest of the All-American spots seem like they are up for grabs.

On paper, Washington's Nathan Green would have a very good chance of snagging silver of the half-mile distance at the national meet. He's run 2:18 for 1000 meters in addition to his very recent 1:46 (800) PR. Plus, the mile is comparatively way more top-heavy than the men's 800-meter field.

Of course, as we saw last winter, Coach Andy Powell has no problem with overloading the mile with all of his top Huskies...even if the team point scoring may be more optimal with someone choosing a different event.

In fact, that's what has made the Washington men so successful at past national meets. They work together beautifully both in the prelims and the finals. They are tactically sound and they use each other's positioning to their advantage. Plus, Green is the reigning NCAA 1500-meter national champion! Having him not contest the mile would be a little surprise.

As for everyone else, the only potential scratches pertain to men who were also part of their team's national qualifying DMR lineups.

Abdullahi Hassan (Wisconsin), Darius Kipyego (Iowa State) and Tinoda Matsatsa (Georgetown) have all been way too good this winter to not contest this event. I also highly doubt that Finley McLear (Iowa State) transferred to a middle distance powerhouse, was absent from a year of racing and is slowly rounding back into top form to be fully fresh for the last DMR squad to get into the national meet.

It's a similar conversation for Nick Plant of Virginia Tech. If the Hokies were going to be in the national title discussion, then I could see him scratching this event. That, however, doesn't seem to be the case.

The only major question mark of the DMR candidates is Virginia's Conor Murphy. Yes, he is listed at NCAA #10 on the national leaderboard in this event, but he has struggled as of late, potentially due to illness (which is unconfirmed).

If the Cavaliers' coaching staff believes that Murphy can rebound and be at 100% by the time the national meet rolls around, then I imagine that he'll stay in this event. However, if Murphy would be more effective in the DMR, then that may be the best move, especially if Gary Martin can replicate a 3:51 anchor split that he produced a few weeks ago.

Final Predictions:

1. Yusuf Bizimana (Texas)

2. Nathan Green (Washington) -- SCRATCH

3. Abdullahi Hassan (Wisconsin)

4. Darius Kipyego (Iowa State)

5. Sam Austin (Florida)

6. Handal Roban (Penn State)

7. Rivaldo Marshall (Iowa)

8. Tinoda Matsatsa (Georgetown)

9. Sean Dolan (Villanova)

10. Conor Murphy (Virginia) -- SCRATCH

11. Finley McLear (Iowa State)

12. Leo Davis (Hampton)

13. Tarees Rhoden (Clemson)

14. Carter Fitzgerald (Penn State)

15. Nicholas Plant (Virginia Tech)

16. Cole Lindhorst (Texas)

17. Sam Whitmarsh (Texas A&M)

18. Olivier Desmeules (Penn State) -- LAST MAN IN

Women's Mile

Despite the numerous women who have qualified for the national meet in multiple events, this mile field feels somewhat predictable. Maia Ramsden, Flomena Asekol, Amina Maatoug, Melissa Riggins and Billah Jepkirui are all expected to enter the 3000 meters. However, the mile is generally their best event and they have all been running too well at this distance for them to scratch out of it.

However, Olivia Markezich is someone who we would expect to scratch. She has said in prior interviews with TSR that she prefers to do the DMR/3k double, a two-day racing schedule that she fared well in last year.

We've also already discussed the prospect of Juliette Whittaker scratching the mile in favor of the 800 meters and maybe a DMR double -- something that she did last winter.

Carley Thomas is someone who we have also already discussed in the above section. We believe that she'll scratch the 800 meters for the mile, but we wouldn't necessarily be surprised if she went in the opposite direction. However, for Maggi Congdon, we would be very surprised if she doesn't end up contesting the mile.

There is an argument that BYU's Riley Chamberlain could scratch the mile and do the DMR/3k double like we expect Markezich to pursue. However, the Cougars should still have enough depth to remain competitive in the DMR even if Chamberlain and a few top veterans are pursuing individual events. For that reason, I don't see her scratching from this field.

Billah Jepkirui is an interesting case. She's the only runner other than Markezich who I could see running the DMR fresh. She's run 8:46 over 3000 meters this season and would only have one race in her legs (and a night of rest) before the 3k on day two if she scratched the mile in favor of the DMR.

That could actually give Jepkirui an advantage as many of the top women's milers would also be doubling back from the mile finals, running their third race in two days and their second race within a few hours.

If the women's mile wasn't as stacked this year, then I would maybe lean towards Jepkirui not scratching this event. But even if Gabija Galvydyte doesn't run in the DMR, then I could still see the Cowgirls being in contention for NCAA DMR gold as long as Taylor Roe also scratches out of her day one event (the 5k).

Final Predictions:

1. Maia Ramsden (Harvard)

2. Flomena Asekol (Florida)

3. Olivia Markezich (Notre Dame) -- SCRATCH

4. Kimberley May (Providence)

5. Chloe Foerster (Washington)

6. Amina Maatoug (Duke)

7. Billah Jepkirui (Oklahoma State) -- SCRATCH

8. Maggi Congdon (Northern Arizona)

9. Ceili McCabe (West Virginia)

10. Riley Chamberlain (BYU)

11. Klaudia Kazimierska (Oregon)

12. Silan Ayyildiz (Oregon)

13. Carley Thomas (Washington)

14. Melissa Riggins (Georgetown)

15. Shannon Flockhart (Providence)

16. Margot Appleton (Virginia)

17. Juliette Whittaker (Stanford) -- SCRATCH

18. Molly Hudson (Boston College)

19. Laura Pellicoro (Portland) -- LAST WOMAN IN

Men's Mile

This feels like a very straightforward field as far as scratches are concerned.

As good as Nico Young, Habtom Samuel, Parker Wolfe and Theo Quax have been in the mile this year, all of those men are far better suited for the longer distances, specifically the 5k. Young is the collegiate 5k record holder, Samuel has built his reputation in the aerobic-centric events, Wolfe has already noted in a post-race interview that he'll likely stick with the 5k/3k double and Quax is just a better 5k talent than he is a miler.

For those reasons, I see those four men scratching.

Nathan Green could scratch this event in favor of the 800 meters, but as I mentioned above, that's unlikely. Someone like Liam Murphy could opt to scratch and be fresh for the 3k, but it feels like the mile is still his best event.

Nick Foster is a challenging name to figure out. The Michigan men ran 9:19 in the DMR a few weeks ago, emerging as one of the top relays in the country. If they're fresh at the national meet, then they could be in contention to win gold given how many other relays will have guys doubling back. Of course, with Foster being a senior, it's unclear whether or not he would opt out of his individual event.

Arguably the most difficult name to figure out is Gary Martin of Virginia.

The Cavaliers posted one of the stronger DMR times in the NCAA a few weeks back after Gary Martin split a phenomenal time of 3:51 on the anchor leg. However, both Martin and Conor Murphy were on that relay.

In theory, the UVA men can contend for the national title if they have a fully fresh relay. And with Murphy hitting a small rough patch recently and Martin only barely projected to get into the national meet, it feels like it would make more sense to go all-in for the DMR.

No, I'm not at all confident about UVA going all-in for the DMR, but I do think it makes the most sense, at least on paper, that is.

Final Predictions:

1. Nico Young (Northern Arizona) -- SCRATCH

2. Luke Houser (Washington)

3. Anass Essayi (South Carolina)

4. Adam Spencer (Wisconsin)

5. Colin Sahlman (Northern Arizona)

6. Isaac Basten (Drake)

7. Joe Waskom (Washington)

8. Nathan Green (Washington)

9. Liam Murphy (Villanova)

10. Habtom Samuel (New Mexico) -- SCRATCH

11. Parker Wolfe (North Carolina) -- SCRATCH

12. Nick Foster (Michigan)

13. Theo Quax (Northern Arizona) -- SCRATCH

14. Aidan Troutner (BYU)

15. Ronan McMahon-Staggs (Washington)

16. Abel Teffra (Georgetown)

17. Ethan Strand (North Carolina)

18. Gary Martin (Virginia) -- SCRATCH

19. Lucas Bons (BYU)

20. Isaiah Labra (Southern Utah)

21. Steven Jackson (Boston College) -- LAST MAN IN

Women's 3k

This section will be short, mainly because very few men or women ever scratch from this event. The 3000-meter finals are at the end of the national meet. In other words, athletes can simply double back to this event largely because they have nothing to lose.

The only scenario where I could see someone scratching is if Parker Valby doesn't want to do the 3k and decides to focus on the 5k. We haven't ever seen her double on the national stage before and keeping Valby as healthy as possible has usually been a major point of emphasis in the past.

Even so, it still makes sense for Valby to enter both the 5k and the 3k at the national meet. If the Florida women are still in a position where they need team points, then they can take solace in the fact that their Gator superstar can contend for 10 points.

Final Predictions:

1. Olivia Markezich (Notre Dame)

2. Parker Valby (Florida)

3. Maia Ramsden (Harvard)

4. Amina Maatoug (Duke)

5. Billah Jepkirui (Oklahoma State)

6. Hilda Olemomoi (Alabama)

7. Maddy Elmore (Oregon)

8. Chloe Scrimgeour (Georgetown)

9. Lexy Halladay-Lowry (BYU)

10. Kaylee Mitchell (Oregon State)

11. Riley Chamberlain (BYU)

12. Taylor Roe (Oklahoma State)

13. Flomena Asekol (Florida)

14. Melissa Riggins (Georgetown)

15. Doris Lemngole (Alabama)

16. Sadie Sargent (BYU) -- LAST WOMAN IN

Men's 3k

I'd love to provide some in-depth and meaningful analysis, but no one in this field is going to scratch this event. If someone does scratch, then there is likely some extraneous factor that I'm not aware of.

Final Predictions:

1. Ky Robinson (Stanford)

2. Aaron Las Heras (Northern Arizona)

3. Parker Wolfe (North Carolina)

4. Nico Young (Northern Arizona)

5. Brian Musau (Oklahoma State)

6. Ryan Schoppe (Oklahoma State)

7. Matt Strangio (Portland)

8. Anass Essayi (South Carolina)

9. Theo Quax (Northern Arizona)

10. Luke Houser (Washington)

11. Habtom Samuel (New Mexico)

12. Liam Murphy (Villanova)

13. Yaseen Abdalla (Tennessee)

14. David Mullarkey (Florida State)

15. Alex Maier (Oklahoma State)

16. Marco Langon (Villanova) -- LAST MAN IN

Women's 5k

This event is usually much more complicated when it comes to scratches and declarations. But in 2024, this looks like a fairly obvious field to predict...with the exception of one name.

I am, of course, talking about Taylor Roe. The Oklahoma State veteran has fantastic this year, specifically over 5000 meters. Not only did she run an all-time 5k mark of 15:12 earlier this season, but she also ran a low-15:20s mark (converted) en route to the BIG 12 title this past weekend.

And yet, despite that, I think that Roe will scratch this event.

The women's 5k is insanely top-heavy this winter with three women having run faster than Roe this season. One of those women is Parker Valby, someone who is arguably the heaviest title favorite of any distance runner at the upcoming indoor national meet.

But if Roe were to scratch the 5k, then she would be fresh for the DMR where the Cowgirls could, in theory, contend for the national title. The Oklahoma State veteran could then double back the next day to the 3k, the same event that she won a national title in back in 2022.

Not only that, but Roe has contested a fast 5k two times in the last three weeks. That's a lot of high intensity racing prior to the national meet. As such, it would theoretically make more sense for Roe to scratch out of the 5k and go after a more manageable (and potentially more productive) DMR/3k double.

Final Predictions:

1. Parker Valby (Florida)

2. Doris Lemngole (Alabama)

3. Amy Bunnage (Stanford)

4. Taylor Roe (Oklahoma State) -- SCRATCH

5. Hilda Olemomoi (Alabama)

6. Molly Born (Oklahoma State)

7. Chloe Scrimgeour (Georgetown)

8. Samantha Bush (NC State)

9. Ella Baran (Colorado)

10. Phoebe Anderson (Columbia)

11. Kenzie Doyle (UMass Lowell)

12. Grace Hartman (NC State)

13. Jenna Hutchins (BYU)

14. Lexy Halladay-Lowry (BYU)

15. Aubrey Frentheway (BYU)

16. Lucy Jenks (Stanford)

17. Gracelyn Larkin (Northern Arizona) -- LAST WOMAN IN

Men's 5k

Let's address the elephant in the room: Harvard's Graham Blanks hasn't competed since he ran 13:03 for 5000 meters at Boston U. on December 2nd. Admittedly, that's fairly concerning, especially since it was perfectly reasonable to think that he could have also qualified for the 3000 meters as well.

There are two ways to think about this: 1) Graham Blanks is simply trying to build a base and prepare himself solely for the 5k at the indoor national meet, or 2) Graham Blanks is, for whatever reason, done for the 2024 indoor track season.

When you see extended absences as long as Blanks', it's hard not to be concerned. Plus, his Strava page shows mostly bike rides as of late.

I sincerely don't know what Blanks' current status is. But if I'm being forced to make predictions (which is an exercise entirely of my own doing), then I'll say that the Harvard superstar does not race at the national meet and scratches the 5k.

Again, these are just predictions, and I'm not reporting anything, but that's my guess.

As for Liam Murphy, he'll almost definitely scratch the 5k. This event was already a substantial step up in distance for him and he has mostly built his reputation in the mile. Unless Coach Marcus O'Sullivan believes that Murphy's turnover will help him in a tactical race, I don't see this Villanova star opting out of the mile.

Final Predictions:

1. Nico Young (Northern Arizona)

2. Graham Blanks (Harvard) -- SCRATCH

3. Ky Robinson (Stanford)

4. Parker Wolfe (North Carolina)

5. Habtom Samuel (New Mexico)

6. Aaron Las Heras (Northern Arizona)

7. Theo Quax (Northern Arizona)

8. Peter Maru (Arkansas)

9. Liam Murphy (Villanova) -- SCRATCH

10. Alex Maier (Oklahoma State)

11. Tom Brady (Michigan)

12. Kirami Yego (Arkansas)

13. Jackson Sharp (Wisconsin)

14. Denis Kipngetich (Oklahoma State)

15. Evans Kiplagat (New Mexico)

16. Said Mechaal (Iowa State)

17. Patrick Kiprop (Arkansas)

18. Alex Phillip (North Carolina) -- LAST MAN IN

Women's DMR

The top-12 DMR teams automatically qualify for the indoor national meet. If a program has two DMR lineups within the top-12, then they will be allowed to have only one relay at the NCAA Indoor Championships. There is zero reason for these relays to scratch.

It's largely impossible to predict who will be on each relay, but we detail a lot of that in the above sections, specifically with the mile and the 800 meters...

Final Predictions:

1. Washington Huskies

2. Providence Friars

3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

4. BYU Cougars

5. Stanford Cardinal

6. Oklahoma State Cowgirls

7. Oregon Ducks

8. Penn State Nittany Lions

9. Arkansas Razorbacks

10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish "B" -- INELIGIBLE

11. Boston College Golden Eagles

12. Virginia Cavaliers

13. Florida Gators -- LAST TEAM IN

Men's DMR

The top-12 DMR teams automatically qualify for the indoor national meet. If a program has two DMR lineups within the top-12, then they will be allowed to have only one relay at the NCAA Indoor Championships. There is zero reason for these relays to scratch.

It's largely impossible to predict who will be on each relay, but we detail a lot of that in the above sections, specifically with the mile and the 800 meters...

Final Predictions:

1. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

2. North Carolina Tar heels

3. Washington Huskies

4. Virginia Cavaliers

5. Michigan Wolverines

6. Oklahoma State Cowboys

7. Arkansas Razorbacks

8. Wisconsin Badgers

9. Virginia Tech Hokies

10. Indiana Hoosiers

11. Georgetown Hoyas

12. Iowa State Cyclones -- LAST TEAM IN