2024 NCAA D3 XC Championships Preview: Can Anyone Stop the MIT Women or UW-La Crosse Men? Will Nathan Tassey Complete His Undefeated Season? Is Faith Duncan the NCAA Title Favorite?

Written by Kevin Fischer, Conor Daly & Gavin Struve

Questions, edits and additional commentary via Gavin Struve & Garrett Zatlin

The NCAA D3 XC Championships are set to take place this Saturday! And in our eyes, this year may have the most parity that we've seen in the individual races in quite some time.

Here are some of the most pressing questions that we have heading into this weekend's season finale! Be sure to look out for our team and individual predictions coming tomorrow...

Who is one breakout regional performer (individual or team) who you’re keeping a close eye on entering the national meet?

Conor: Both the Washington & Lee men and women have enjoyed breakout seasons this fall! In particular, the women’s team becoming South region champions over Emory caught my eye as one of the most impressive performances of the regional weekend. 

The Generals were led by regional champion Olivia Warr thanks to the biggest win of her career over a field that featured Brigid Hanley. With four runners in the top eight in that setting, we need to ask ourselves whether this team (which was not even remotely on our radar this summer) could reach the podium on their best day.

Kevin: Somebody we haven’t talked much about this year is Jake Velazquez of Keene State. The reason for that is largely because he faced limited competition for a big chunk of the season. And when he did see a more challenging test at the Connecticut College Invitational, he had a tough day and fell to 39th place.

Outside of that race, however, the UMass Lowell transfer is an undefeated regional champion this season. On top of his momentum this season, he also has the history of finishing as high as 54th at the Division One Northeast Regional XC Championships.

The ceiling is sky-high for Velazquez going into this weekend, and it will be interesting to see how he navigates an NCAA XC Championships field. 

Gavin: Brayden Curnutt thrust himself into the All-American conversation with a victory at the Great Lakes Regional XC Championships. His other results aren't reflective of that, but they’re solid enough so as not to paint his regional romp as an aberration.

Curnutt won a conference title in the NCAC and held his own by placing 26th at both D3 Pre-Nationals and the Augustana Interregional Invitational last month. 

His upward trajectory heading into the postseason and the handful of solid men he beat in his latest outing (All-American candidates Luke Witvliet and Noah Tobin among others) suggest that he should very much be on our radar entering this weekend. 

Nathan Tassey wasn’t a top-half All-American last year, but he is now the only undefeated Division Three man racing at the national meet. Do you view him as the title favorite over the field as a whole (i.e. would you give him over a 50% chance of winning NCAA gold)? 

Kevin: I consider Nathan Tassey a national title favorite in the sense that he has a better chance of winning than any other individual. But I definitely would not favor him over the field, entirely. This feels like a pretty wide-open year in terms of the individual race, and there are too many high-level contending talents who could knock him off.

We know the history of Christian Patzka and we have seen really great things from Grant Matthai recently. Also, it might be time to forget about previous seasons and give Mohammed Bati his flowers as a legitimate contender.

With that said, I'd give Tassey a 35% chance at taking the crown, 25% for Patzka, 20% for Matthai, 10% for Bati and 10% for the rest of the field. 

Conor: I wouldn’t consider Tassey the favorite over the field. In fact, I’m not sure I’d consider him to be the outright favorite.

I’d consider Tassey and Grant Matthai to be co-favorites. Tassey defeated Matthai in their only head-to-head matchup at the John McNichols Invitational in mid-September. However, that matchup was two months ago. And in that race, the duo was neck-and-neck with 500 meters to go before Matthai took a spill.

I don’t necessarily put much stake into that defeat. 

Since then, both men have been outstanding. Most notably, Tassey beat many of our top-20 names at the Connecticut College Invitational after stopping to put his shoe back on in the first few minutes. On the other hand, Matthai convincingly took down our then-TSR #1 runner, Christian Patzka, at the WIAC XC Championships a few weeks back.

Patzka is just barely less likely than Tassey and Matthai to win in my eyes, but he's a very close third. The next tier of challengers is Bati, as Kevin pointed out, and Emmanuel Leblond (Johns Hopkins).

Gavin: Given that he’s my pick (and Conor’s and Kevin’s) to win the national title and we moved up to TSR #1 even before the regional weekend, I’ll zag here and say that Tassey is the national title favorite over the field and that he has over a 50% chance of winning on Saturday.

On paper, Tassey has by far the best men’s resume in Division Three this season.  

That being said, I’d be lying if I claimed I didn’t consider someone else for my title pick. That someone else is Christian Patzka, who was the clear title favorite entering this season. He feels due after taking silver at the past two cross country national meets and winning three individual national titles on the track earlier this year.

That being said, Patzka has left us a bit wanting in recent weeks. 

Although Tassey has not faced Patzka yet this fall, he’s quite battle-tested with wins at the John McNichols Invitational (over a fellow title contender in Matthai) and the Connecticut College Invitational. Those fields were translatable to what he'll face at the national meet. 

Similarly, Faith Duncan has emerged as the women’s individual title favorite in her first cross country season at the D3 level. Who do you see as her greatest challenger? How likely is it that she’ll be upset on a scale of 1 to 10?  

Kevin: I think Faith Duncan’s biggest challenger will be Penelope Greene, but I don't see it as being very likely that she gets upset.

Duncan has made some really solid fields look like cakewalks this fall, most notably winning by over 20 seconds at D3 Pre-Nationals and then by over 30 at the Great Lakes Regional XC Championships over our TSR #13 runner, Paige Anderson.

Sure, she hasn't faced any top-five names, but Duncan's dominance makes me very confident. Other than Greene, I could see Evelyn Battleson-Gunkel or Audrey Maclean making a bid for the title. But on a scale of 1 to 10 in terms of how likely it is for Duncan to be upset, I'd give it a "3".

Conor: Ever since winning the outdoor 5k national title in an upset over Fiona Smith, Faith Duncan has looked untouchable. The only woman to finish within 20 seconds of her in a race or on the national meet course in Terre Haute (at separate meets) is Evelyn Battleson-Gunkel, who just made a strong return from injury this past weekend. She’s the biggest unknown, which in turn gives her the greatest chance to break the tape outside of Duncan. 

Outside of her, the other two challengers that Kevin listed (Maclean and Greene) pretty much sum it up. Jules Bleskoski and Keira Rogan are other names potentially in the hunt for the crown. However, I don’t think that they have the upside to outrun Duncan. On a scale of 1 to 10, I’d give it a “2” that she is upset.

Gavin: Duncan is a more significant favorite than Tassey, but she has yet to face as many top contenders as her male counterpart has. And yes, I say that in spite of her impressive win at D3 Pre-Nationals. 

Among the women she hasn't faced this fall is Penelope Greene, our preseason TSR #1 runner and someone who has suffered a defeat already this season despite not yet facing Duncan. Greene is also undefeated over her last three races and is the top returner from the 2023 NCAA XC Championships. 

Battleson-Gunkel (preseason TSR #2) also merits a mention after her triumphant return at the Midwest Regional XC Championships in her first race in nearly two months. 

Both of those women are talented enough to win their first individual national title. Still, partially in reverence of the sizable margins by which she’s won every race, I’ll join Kevin in giving the likelihood of Duncan being upset only a “3” out of 10.

MIT has fielded the most consistently strong D3 women’s squad this fall, but there’s a relative vacuum of proven elite teams behind the Engineers. Who’s your runner-up pick and why? 

Conor: MIT’s run at D3 Pre-Nationals -- where they put six women in the top-25 -- is plenty proof for me to call them favorites, especially considering that they have not shown many flaws since. The Engineers are not untouchable, but they are a clear favorite with some breathing room, especially with the reintroduction of Gillian Roeder to their lineup. 

On Saturday afternoon, I foresee U. of Chicago walking away as runner-up. Our preseason TSR #2 team had some struggles in the early and middle stages of the season, but they seem to be regaining their footing and delivering on their preseason promise with encouraging wins at the UAA XC Championships and the Midwest regional meet. As hinted at in the previous question, the return of Evelyn Battleson-Gunkel to the lineup gives this team a much-appreciated potent low-stick.

It’s also interesting to look at Claremont-Mudd-Scripps’ regional win over a Colorado College team that we previously, and maybe still, consider to be a national title contender. Could this mean that if the Athenas deliver their best performance of the season this weekend they could make the leap to runner-up honors?

Kevin: I see three serious national title contenders: MIT, U. of Chicago and Colorado College.

Even though Colorado College dropped the West regional meet to Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, I continue to see the Tigers as being in that top tier. And yes, the Engineers are the clear favorite among those squads. 

But there's a voice in my head telling me that U. of Chicago will upset them. Even before Evelyn Battleson-Gunkel returned, the Maroons had a really promising day at the UAA XC Championships. After seeing her return to lead the charge at the regional meet and the supporting cast getting better each week, there seems to be a level of momentum and energy in their camp that can't be understated.

In both 2022 and 2023, we viewed the Maroons as one of the favorites for the title, and in both years they fell just short despite landing on the podium. After an underwhelming 2024 regular season, they are flying under for the first time in years. And maybe that's where they are at their most dangerous. 

So with that said, my runner-up pick is MIT. Maybe the mathematics don't support that pick, but there just seems to be something in the water on the shores of Lake Michigan. 

Gavin: It’s clear we’re all pretty high on U. of Chicago. After an uneven start to the season, that newfound confidence stems from a combination of their UAA title without Battleson-Gunkel, their Midwest regional title with her (both of which were quite convincing) and perhaps some newfound questions about Colorado College. 

For all of those reasons, I’ve got the Maroons as the runner-up, but the same uncertainties they had earlier this season prevent me from picking them to upset a more sure bet in MIT. 

UW-La Crosse enters as a clear men’s team title favorite after finishing runner-up by a single point at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships. Who are the Eagles’ greatest challengers? Which two teams do you see joining UW-La Crosse and (presumably) Wartburg on the podium? 

Conor: When you consider UW-La Crosse’s dominance over the last few years, it’s crazy to conceive of the notion that a cross country title has evaded them. In fact, some of their current athletes weren’t alive the last time they accomplished this feat.

And that’s something the program doesn’t take lightly, as they told us last spring. 

The Eagles figure to be the clear favorites, but not without challenge from Wartburg. To potentially spoil the party, the Iowa-based Knights will need Tyler Schermerhorn to be healthy, something we remain skeptical of. 

We can’t talk about challengers for the national team title without mentioning Pomona-Pitzer, a program that has won three of the last four NCAA titles. The Sagehens' only loss in that span was in 2022, when the race was held on snow in Lansing, Michigan, something this Southern California program isn’t used to.

As for the last podium spot, it figures to be a battle between North Central, NYU and UW-Whitewater. I’d give the edge to North Central considering the Cardinals were only four points off of Wartburg at the Midwest regional meet.

Kevin: As Conor mentioned, whether Wartburg has a chance at pulling off the upset comes down to Schermerhorn's availability (he hasn't raced in over a month now). At their best, the Knights were truly dominant at the Augustana Interregional Invitational, scoring a total of only 41 points against an excellent field. 

I anticipate there being very little separation between the 3rd-to-8th-place spots. Pomona-Pitzer, North Central, NYU, UW-Whitewater, and even RPI or SUNY Geneseo wouldn't shock me with a podium finish. 

Ultimately though, I'll take Wartburg placing 2nd, North Central 3rd and Pomona-Pitzer 4th. 

Gavin: Wartburg is the only team I can conceivably see matching the Eagles’ scoring. I have both teams projected to finish with four All-Americans (assuming Schermerhorn runs and is near top form), so there’s a path to the Knights reigning supreme. 

That being said, those four names feel like more “sure things” for UW-La Crosse, and they have a few more candidates beyond that quartet. 

Pomona-Pitzer has been great in their title defense this season given that we didn’t initially consider the Sagehens to be a podium favorite. Their run will probably come to an end with their first loss against D3 competition this fall. 

I’m no different from Conor and Kevin in having North Central as my fourth podium team (albeit in a different order than Kevin projected). This team has been far from perfect, but Emerald Svienty, BJ Sorg and Matthew Jett have all been strong as of late, and they’re more known quantities than the top scorers of almost any other team. 

If you were forced to bet your entire life savings on a single individual outperforming their current TSR ranking, who would it be?

Kevin: Is it cheating to say Evelyn Battleson-Gunkel? After being one of the preseason national title favorites, she dropped out of our top-20 individual ratings following a prolonged absence.

But in her return at the Midwest regional meet, Battleson-Gunkel ran as well as ever, taking the win against a highly competitive field. Given that we don't release a rankings update between the D3 regional and national meets, she is still currently unranked. After seeing her regional result, it would be a pretty big shock at this point if she does not manage to finish as a top-half All-American.

If that answer is a cop-out, then I'm also pretty bullish on the unranked Emerald Svienty of North Central given their championship pedigree and promising performance during the regional weekend.

Conor: I would also have to bet on one of our “Just Missed” names (essentially athletes ranked 21-32) placing in the top-20: Riley Capuano of Claremont-Mudd-Scripps. We held her back in our rankings since her 15th-place finish in the Paul Short Run “White” race was underwhelming, and her wins at the Pomona-Pitzer Invite and the SCIAC XC Championships didn't come over any top-tier competition. 

In contrast to the lack of competition in her previous two races, Capuano’s win at the West regional meet came over the most stacked individual field out of any of the regions. Capuano bested a number of women who we feel very confident about being top-half All-Americans like Riley Buese (Lewis & Clark), Kenzie Seymour (UC Santa Cruz) and Isabel Olson (Colorado College). 

After a heroic effort to place 11th at last year’s NCAA XC championships when she was not even expected to scratch All-American honors, Capuano also holds an immeasurable clutch factor that is crucial for “The Big Dance.”

Gavin: The fact that our latest rankings update fell before the regional weekend presents a handful of athletes who seem well in line to outperform their current placement. I’ll take Jacob Green, who will play a pivotal role in Wartburg’s hopes of upsetting UW-La Crosse for the men's national team title.

Green is yet another “Just Missed” name outside of our top-20 individual rankings, and I’ve got him projected to finish 14th after he beat a chunk of All-American candidates in finishing runner-up at the Midwest Regional XC Championships. He has finished no worse than 14th all season, and that came at the loaded John McNichols Invitational two months ago.

Green nearly achieved top-half All-American honors at the 2022 NCAA XC Championships, reached that status over 10,000 meters this past spring and seems in line to do so on the grass now.