2024 Boston U. David Hemery Valentine Invite Preview (Part Two): Arkansas Debuts Newest 5k Star, Tinoda Matsatsa Faces Big Rematch & Can Anass Essayi Run the NCAA Mile Record?

The women's races (and the men's DMR) at Boston U. are currently underway, leaving us at The Stride Report with plenty to analyze. Of course, before we do that, we had to bring you our men's distance preview with predictions!

Also, be sure to remember that we are basing this preview off of the latest entries/performance list which are not split by heat. As such, it's possible that someone may end up contesting a different event (or not race at all) when it comes time to toe the line.

Alright, let's get into it...

Click here to see Day Two entries

Click here to see Final Schedule

Men's 800 Meters: Rematch Between Tinoda Matsatsa, Conor Murphy & Handal Roban (Maybe)

The men's 800-meter field at Boston U. this weekend is, on paper, an absolutely stacked race.

The headliner of this field (collegiately) is Georgetown freshman, Tinoda Matsatsa. Not only is the Hoya rookie undefeated this season, but he has also run some absurd times. The Maryland native ran the NCAA record over 1000 meters (2:18.05) earlier this season and also posted a 1:46.89 PR for the half-mile distance.

And on his way to that 800-meter PR, Matsatsa defeated top-tier middle distance talents such as Conor Murphy (Virginia), Sean Dolan (Villanova) and the Penn State duo of Handal Roban and Olivier Desmeules.

Despite that, Saturday is going to be a slightly different setting for Matsatsa compared to what he has seen earlier this winter. This will most definitely be the strongest field that he has faced and it's easily the biggest collegiate meet he's raced at in terms of magnitude.

But the young Georgetown star has also consistently risen to the occasion this season and there's not much reason to believe that the won't continue that this weekend.

However, men such as Conor Murphy and Handal Roban will likely be out for revenge.

...well, maybe.

Murphy is a highly dynamic middle distance runner who has run 1:46 for 800 meters a handful of times. He's a multi-time All-American with great range who is also more consistent than he gets credit for. Truthfully, I could see this being a major breakout race for Murphy where he goes from All-American favorite to a potential All-American lock...and maybe even more.

But we're not even confident that Murphy will toe the line for this race. He just settled for an underwhelming 4:05 mile effort from earlier this evening and he's also entered in the 800 meters. There's no guarantee that he'll be in this race on Saturday.

Although, truthfully, it feels like we generally know what we're going to get out of both Matsatsa and Murphy. It's Nittany Lion ace, Handal Roban, who leaves us with plenty of questions.

We should note that Roban just ran 1:47.10 for 800 meters at New Balance earlier this evening. In theory, he could double back at Boston U. tomorrow and contest this event again, but that seems less likely now that he ran a decent time.

But for the sake of this preview, let's say that he will run...

Throughout last year, you could make the argument that, between the indoor and outdoor track seasons, no one peaked better than Roban (relative to expectations). The Penn State standout, as just a freshman, secured two bronze medals on the national stage over 800 meters in 2023, although those performances were significant outliers compared to what he had done during the regular season.

As long as Roban gets to the national stage, he'll be a top name in our predictions. However, his recent 1:47.10 mark is going to (probably) put him right on the fringes of national qualifying. That's why I feel like we could see him again on Saturday.

Iowa State's Jason Gomez is also a top entrant in this field, sporting a 1:46 (800) PR and a few 1:47 performances at that distance this season.

When Gomez is at his best, he's incredibly hard to shake. In the handful of times that I have watched him race, it felt like his performances usually stemmed from him having a fantastic second-half.

Yes, the Cyclone standout has also had a few up-and-down moments of seasonal inconsistency, although his performances this winter suggest that he's having one of his steadier indoor track campaigns of his career. For the most part, you should expect him to have some noticeable role in this race on Saturday.

Princeton's Samuel Rodman is a personal favorite of mine. He thrived at this meet last year when he ran his 800-meter PR of 1:46.96 and he's been on the national stage before. In terms of talent, I would argue that he's just as good as a lot of the men who we've already mentioned, although his resume just isn't as complete.

Other names such as Lorenz Herrmann (Idaho) and Mahamed Sharif (UConn) are two men who have run 1:46 (800) in the past. However, their efforts so far this season don't necessarily suggest that they are in that form.

Also look out for Olivier Desmeules (Penn State), Matthew Payamps (Georgetown), Tim McInerney (Georgetown) and Luke Griner (Army. Desmeules, Griner and McInerney both hold sneaky-good momentum right now, but Payamps (who had a tough outing last week) has proven to be the most talented when he's firing on all cylinders.

Men's Mile: Can Anass Essayi Run the NCAA Record? Plus, Isaac Basten, Ezekiel Rop & Conor Murphy Headline Field

The main storyline when it comes to the men's mile at Boston U. this weekend is relatively simple: Can Anass Essayi run the NCAA record in the mile?

The current NCAA mile record is currently held by Cooper Teare from 2021 with a mark 3:50.39. However, Essayi actually sits at NCAA #2 all-time with a time of 3:50.48, a mark that he produced on this same exact track at this same exact meet last year!

After running a top-10 all-time mark of 7:39 over 3000 meters a couple of weeks ago, we know that Essayi has the potential to run a 3:50 mile. It will largely just be a matter of how he's feeling and how long he can keep the pace. And truthfully, that's all of the analysis I have for him.

We then come to Isaac Basten who, as a disclaimer, currently works for The Stride Report as our Lane Nine interview host. After running a 3:56 mile time in his season debut last week, the Drake veteran is likely primed for another fast effort this weekend in Boston. At the same meet last year, he ran a tremendous time of 3:54.

This past fall and through the early portions of the winter, Basten dealt with extended illnesses, ultimately limiting his racing. But with a 3:56 mile rust-buster, it seems fair to suggest that the master-class tactician could match his 3:54 mile PR on Saturday.

And frankly, he may need to if he wants to advance to the indoor national meet this year.

Iowa State's Ezekiel Rop is a really interesting name who has left us perplexed throughout most of his career. He was a cross country stud during his time at Eastern Kentucky, but hasn't quite matched that success on the grass since then. However, last year, the Cyclone was outstanding over 1500 meters, running a personal best of 3:36 in that event.

If you believe that Rop's 1500-meter prowess from last spring will translate to the indoor oval, then you're looking at a guy who has the potential to run 3:53 in the mile. However, with limited success on the indoor oval and a tough cross country season, it's hard to know what we should expect to see the Iowa State standout produce on Saturday.

Conor Murphy (Virginia) is also entered in the mile in addition to the 800 meters. He'll be joined by Penn State's Evan Dorenkamp, a guy who has beaten my expectations for him more than once.

Murphy actually ran the mile at the New Balance facility earlier this evening. It did not, however, go very well. The Virginia veteran ran 4:05, a tough result that, admittedly, we have yet to watch -- it's very possible that there may be a trip or something of that nature that we don't know about.

Regardless, Murphy should still go after a fast mile tomorrow night as well.

The mile, I would argue, is seemingly his best event on the indoor oval. And remember, this is someone who also ran 7:53 for 3000 meters back in December. Pair that with his 800-meter speed and you theoretically get a lethal miler who is WAY better than what his recent 4:05 mark would suggest.

So far this season, Evan Dorenkamp has run 2:22 (1k) and 3:58 (mile). Those times may not blow you away, but they are great start for someone who usually peaks fairly well. And if he was able to be a 1500-meter All-American last spring after slowly rebounding from an injury, then what can he do this winter when he's (hopefully) even healthier and has more training under his belt?

In theory, that means that we could see a strong result from the Penn State veteran this coming Saturday...right?

Nick Foster (Michigan) is an all-around great miler with tons of experience, Abel Teffra (Georgetown) is someone who can likely run faster than 3:56 for the mile and a handful of other collegiates could be due for a breakout race.

Men's 3k: Could the Adams State Men Dominate the Field & Rewrite the D2 Record Books?

The top-two seeded men in this field are not pro athletes. They aren't high school all-time phenoms. They aren't Division One juggernauts. Instead, they are two of the absolute best distance runners that Division Two has to offer.

I am, of course, talking about the Adams State duo of Romain Legendre and Miguel Coca.

I'll admit, when I first saw that the Grizzlies' top duo each held 7:42 (3k) seed times, I thought, "Gosh, that seems pretty generous." But the more I pondered, the more convinced I became that those seed times were fairly accurate representations.

But put the seed times aside for a second. If you look at all of the collegiates in this field, I would argue that only Habtom Samuel has been better than them this season -- and that's it.

You may remember Legendre from the Boston U. Season Opener when he ran 13:24 for 5000 meters -- a new Division Two indoor record. And after running a 3:56 mile altitude conversion a couple of weeks back, you can see how the French distance star would be an outstanding 3k runner.

As for Miguel Coca, I would argue that he's the best tactician at the Division Two level in the distance events. The only guy who could potentially match him would be Wes Ferguson. And while he has traditionally been viewed as more of a "miler" over his career, we shouldn't ignore the fact that he ran 7:52 (3k) at this same exact meet last year.

Christian Noble's Division Two 3k record of 7:50.98 from the winter of 2022 is almost certainly going to fall on Saturday. If one of these Adams State men doesn't run under 7:50, then the other surely will.

Of course, there shouldn't be much of a question as to whether or not Noble's record will fall. The bigger question should be, how far under 7:50 will the new D2 3k record go? Do I think it'll be 7:42? No, I don't, but I don't think it will be too far off from that mark, either.

Habtom Samuel is the only collegiate in this field. He's predominantly been known as a true long distance guy, thriving on the grass and running 13:14 (5k) on this track back in December (his personal best is 13:13).

However, Samuel has been working on his refining his turnover in events that are under 5000 meters -- a smart idea given how tactical championship racing can become. The New Mexico ace has already run 7:45 for 3000 meters this season, but it feels like he has another second or two in him. And he may need to find one or two more of those seconds as the men's 3000-meter national qualifying cut-off is looking historically fast.

And then there is Jesse Hamlin, the Butler veteran who has been criminally undermentioned and underappreciated -- both by TSR and the rest of the country.

Some people seem to forget that Jesse Hamlin ran 7:44 for 3000 meters at the beginning of last winter and then went on to place 7th over that distance at the NCAA Indoor Championships.

But since then, Hamlin has sat out of the 2023 outdoor track season, had a decent cross country season, struggled at the Boston U. Season Opener and ran a simple 1:49 mark for 800 meters last month.

On paper, there wasn't a whole lot on Hamlin's resume that we could really get excited about. However, the Butler standout just ran a 3:57.99 mile PR a couple weeks ago and then later ran another mile PR of 3:56 at New Balance's facility this evening! Those are very promising steps in the right direction.

If Hamlin doubles back from his Friday mile effort, then it doesn't feel like he should be overwhelmed by his 3k competition on Saturday.

In fact, this may actually be the perfect 3k field for Hamlin as begins to return to top form.

A few other guys I'll be watching are Carson Williams (Furman), Hillary Cheruiyot (Alabama) and Yasin Sado (Virginia). Each of those men have produced highly encouraging results (of varying magnitudes) this season. Williams ran 3:55 in the mile, Sado ran 3:55 in the mile and 13:31 for 5000 meters and Cheruiyot ran 7:45 (3k) on this same track in December!

One of these men could end up running 7:42 and it wouldn't/shouldn't come as a total shock. That trio has a ton of current momentum and the 3k, in theory, could all be their best event.

Men's 5k: Arkansas Debuts Newest 5k Star, Mullarkey & Abdalla Move Up in Distance

A few weeks ago, I received a text from one of my best NCAA contacts. "You heard about this one?" they asked. What they had sent was a link to a World Athletics profile for a Ugandan distance runner named Peter Maru.

His times? 3:40 (1500), 13:07 (5k) and 27:30 (10k road).

Welp, sure enough, Maru is indeed in the NCAA. The newest Arkansas Razorback is entered for the men's 5k at Boston University, holding freshman status and a 13:17 seed time right on par with his teammates, Kirami Yego and Patrick Kiprop.

Maru is obviously a major wild card in this field. He never ran under 13:20 (5k) last summer, but the year before that, he ran sub-13:10 twice. If this guy is as sharp as he's ever been, then maybe he could scare the 13:10 barrier once more on Saturday.

This race is almost certainly going to be fast and aggressively paced from the gun. With pro athletes such as Wesley Kiptoo, Sam Parsons, Athanas Kioko and Aaron Bienenfeld near the top of the entries, there will likely be no slow, gradual ramping up of the pace. It's going to be very fast, very early-on.

But when you think about the aerobic-centric skillsets that Kirami Yego, Patrick Kiprop and presumably Peter Maru boast, that kind of race would theoretically benefit them. Sure that's not always the case, but Yego and Kiprop have proven to be front-runners in the past. And while they certainly won't be setting the pace in this field, they'll at least be ready for it.

The other two men to keep an eye on are David Mullarkey (Florida State) and Yaseen Abdalla (Tennessee). Those two men both ran 7:42 for 3000 meters on this same track a couple of weeks ago. For the former, that was a small surprise. For the latter, that was pretty much on par with expectations.

The 5k feels like a step up in distance for Abdalla. I think he'll still run a fast and competitive time, one that could put him in national qualifying territory, but I still think that going all-in for the 3k at the national meet would make more sense (although I've been wrong before).

Mullarkey, however, is a bit different.

Coming into this past cross country season, it seemed fairly clear that that Florida State ace was at his best over 5000 meters (on the track). And after a tremendous fall campaign, it felt like Mullarkey's chances to be a top-tier 5k talent this year had only risen.

So if this Seminole star is running 7:42 for 3000 meters, then how fast can he run over 5000 meters, an event that we think is his best? If I had to guess, I would say that a sub-13:20 effort may be in play.

The rest of this field is stacked with plenty of other top names. Alex Phillip (North Carolina), Dylan Schubert (Furman), Toby Gillen (Ole Miss), Sanele Masondo (Iowa Sate), Said Mechaal (Iowa State), Perry Mackinnon (Syracuse) and Tom Brady (Michigan) all have a shot to put themselves in national qualifying territory.

However, if I had to guess, I would say that only two of those men from that latter group will end the season with a national qualifying position over 5000 meters.

FINAL PREDICTIONS (NCAA & NAIA collegiates only)

*Denotes that a collegiate is also entered in another individual event. TSR is assuming that all runners will contest the race that they are entered in completely fresh.

Men's 800 Meters

1. Tinoda Matsatsa (Georgetown)* - 1:46

2. Conor Murphy (Virginia)* - 1:46 (NOTE: Contested the mile at New Balance)

3. Handal Roban (Penn State) - 1:47 (NOTE: Contested same event at New Balance)

4. Jason Gomez (Iowa State) - 1:47

5. Matthew Payamps (Georgetown) - 1:47

Men's 1000 Meters

1. Emanuel Galdino (Iowa State) - 2:22

2. Harrison Witt (Princeton) - 2:22

3. Graham Steadfast (UMass Lowell) - 2:23

4. Mark Scanlon (Binghamton) - 2:24

5. Jack Muldoon (Davidson) - 2:24

Men's Mile

1. Anass Essayi (South Carolina) - 3:51

2. Conor Murphy (Virginia)* - 3:53 (NOTE: Contested same event at New Balance)

3. Isaac Basten (Drake) - 3:54

4. Evan Dorenkamp (Penn State) - 3:55

5. Abel Teffra (Georgetown) - 3:55

Men's 3000 Meters

1. Habtom Samuel (New Mexico) - 7:43

2. Romain Legendre (Adams State) - 7:43

3. Jesse Hamlin (Butler) - 7:44 (NOTE: Contested the mile at New Balance)

4. Hillary Cheruiyot (Alabama) - 7:44

5. Yasin Sado (Virginia) - 7:45 (NOTE: Entered in same event at New Balance)

Men's 5000 Meters

1. Kirami Yego (Arkansas) - 13:15 (NOTE: Entered in 3k at New Balance)

2. Peter Maru (Arkansas) - 13:16

3. David Mullarkey (Florida State) - 13:19

4. Patrick Kiprop (Arkansas) - 13:23

5. Yaseen Abdalla (Tennessee) - 13:23

Women's DMR (Men's DMR on Friday)

1. Penn State Nittany Lions - 10:54 (NOTE: Entered in same event at New Balance)

2. Adams State Grizzlies "A" - 11:05

3. Richmond Spiders - 11:12

4. Princeton Tigers - 11:15

5. Adams State Grizzlies "B" - 11:16