2023 Sound Running On Track Fest Preview & Predictions

Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
May 5, 2023
16 min read

The Sound Running "On Track Fest" is an interesting meet. Not just because it features a small handful of elite-level collegiates who will be racing pro athletes, but because the meet won't actually count towards qualification for the NCAA regional meets.

This is largely because the setup and structure of the meet doesn't meet NCAA requirements, therefore making any upcoming marks void as far as postseason eligibility is concerned.

That, however, will largely be a non-issue for most of the collegiate athletes entered in these fields. A heavy portion of these NCAA men and women already hold regional qualifying marks, meaning that all-time marks and personal bests are the main goals.

Let's break down each of these middle and long distance fields, shall we?

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Women's 1500 Meters (Section Three)

This field, despite not being the "invite" section, still has a handful of really great entries, including three top BYU women as well as Oklahoma State standout, Gabija Galvydyte.

When we look at the Cougars, it's hard not to be excited about what this trio could do. The combination of Riley Chamberlain (4:33 mile PR), Taylor Rohatinsky (4:33 mile PR) and Carmen Alder (1500 meter PR of 4:14) will look to extend their already-strong outdoor track seasons, aiming to earn high-level experience before facing top collegiate women at the regional and national levels.

Chamberlain and Rohtainsky have been racing beyond their years since December. They just shouldn't be this good for a pair of true rookies. And yet, despite their youth, they have shown tremendous consistency and have been relentless in their ability to improve their resumes.

For them, this race will largely be an effort to gain experience in a fast-paced environment against upper-tier pro athletes. And if they can be pulled to 1500 meter personal best around the 4:11 to 4:13 range, then the All-American conversation for these first-year distance runners will have to include the BYU women.

We then come to Carmen Alder, another BYU runner who was great as a true freshman, posting a 4:36 mile PR in the winter of 2022. But since then, Alder has been a bit quieter, falling into the shadows of her teammates during the most recent indoor track season.

However, things are looking up for this promising sophomore standout. After running 4:14 for 1500 meters, Alder gives the Cougars another name to create a three-headed underclassmen Cerberus of sorts in the middle distances.

And given how well everyone has been running as of late, I'm not sure if I see a scenario where any of these three BYU women have a true "off" day this weekend.

We then come to Gabija Galvydyte, the Oklahoma State veteran who is in a completely different conversation as her BYU counterparts.

Last year, Galvydyte was incredible. She ran 2:01.76 for 800 meters at the NCAA Outdoor Championships and earned bronze in that race as a result. And after a promising 2022 cross country season, the Cowgirl standout went to the indoor oval, running an awesome mile PR of 4:32 back in December.

But by March, Galvydyte had left us wanting more. She had a fine indoor track season, but she never looked incredibly sharp, or at least as sharp as we were expecting her to be.

Since then, the Oklahoma State runner has shown promise at the Bryan Clay Invite, putting together a very solid 2:03/4:14 (800/1500) weekend double. And while she hasn't quite reached that highest tier of firepower that she flashed last spring and during December, that was a step in the right direction.

And on Saturday, Galvydyte will have a chance to run something along the lines of 4:10 or 4:11 for 1500 meters, potentially altering the current All-American conversation as we know it.

Men's 1500 Meters (Section Three)

The only collegiate in this field is Division Two stalwart, Charlie Dannatt.

The Simon Fraser star is a versatile distance weapon, holding personal bests of 1:49 (800), 3:39 (1500), 3:56 (outdoor mile) and 7:58 (3k). He was expected to be a legitimate contender for NCAA gold this past winter in the mile, but illness ultimately held him out of the D2 indoor national meet.

So far this spring, Dannatt has rallied back admirably. He has run 3:43 and 3:42 for the metric mile over the last few months as well as a mark of 1:50 for 800 meters. It's clear that this Canadian middle distance runner is returning to his peak form, but will we fully see his top level of fitness this weekend?

I think Dannatt running 3:39 (1500) on Saturday is well within his wheelhouse. And if he does run that kind of time, then he'll return to the national title conversation likely to the same extent that he was at during the month of March.

And frankly, even if runs 3:40 or 3:41 for this distance, then that will still give us enough confidence that Dannatt is building momentum in his ideal event at the perfect time of the season.

Women's 1500 Meters (Section Two)

The lone collegiate in this field is Mia Barnett, the Virginia-turned-UCLA mile star who was shockingly left out of the top section of the women's 1500 meters at the Bryan Clay Invite.

And despite running 4:10 for that distance in a race that she largely soloed (before being caught), it's not ridiculous to think that she can run 4:08 or 4:09 in an even faster field.

It's hard to dislike anything that Barnett has done as of late. She acclimated quicker than expected to racing on the west coast and has ultimately reached the same elite tier that she was at as a true freshman in 2022.

With the exception of Aisha Praught-Leer, no one in this field holds a seed time faster than 4:08 for 1500 meters. In theory, that means that the rest of these women shouldn't be too much for Barnett to handle. The UCLA ace should actually be able to compete with these pro standouts rather than just be dragged to a fast time.

And given her upcoming onslaught of races -- the PAC-12 Championships, West Regional Championships and NCAA Outdoor Championships -- this kind of experience could prove to be massively valuable.

Because even if Barnett doesn't run as well as we would expect her to this weekend, she still won't be thrown into a series of postseason races where she is completely unfamiliar with racing elite competition.

And yes, she still faced a great field at Bryan Clay, but I wouldn't expect this UCLA ace to solo her races over the next month and a half like she did that weekend.

Men's 1500 Meters (Section Two)

Just like section two of the women's 1500 meters, UCLA is the headliner as far as collegiates go in this heat. I am, of course, referring to Ronan McMahon-Staggs, a breakout distance talent from this past winter who ran a monster 3:54 mile PR back in February.

After a few early-season marks of 1:50 (800) and 3:41 (1500), we saw the rising Bruin ace post a 3:39 PR over 1500 meters at the Bryan Clay Invite, finishing in the middle of the pack of the second-fastest heat where nearly everyone ran under 3:40.

For McMahon-Staggs, there is really only one question that we need to answer this weekend...what exactly is his ceiling in this event?

A 3:39 mark for 1500 meters at least keeps him in All-American consideration, but anything faster than that would ultimately place this breakout distance talent in All-American contention. And for anyone who has followed our site for long enough, you know that those are two very different buckets to be placed in.

In fairness to McMahon-Staggs, he has run well against pro athletes before, taking down Amon Kemboi this past winter en route to his aforementioned 3:54 mile PR. However, McMahon-Staggs has never quite been in a pro-laden field quite like this.

And in my eyes, that makes him a little bit of a x-factor.

The other collegiate who we need to highlight is Zach Stallings, a long-time veteran and an underrated miler. The elder Washington State runner holds strong marks of 3:39 (1500), 3:57 (mile) and 13:47 (5k), the latter coming earlier this spring. And since the spring of 2021, this west coast Cougar has proven to be a sneaky-good name.

It's admittedly hard to get a gauge on Stallings going into this weekend. This is his first season of competition since last spring and despite his ability to post fast times on multiple occasions, his display of tactics can be a little all over the place.

Of course, Saturday's race isn't going to be about tactics, it's going to be about times. And if you look at Stalling's resume, he historically posts his bests marks in race scenarios such as this. That should bode well for him when you look at the field that he'll be facing.

Women's 5000 Meters (Section Two)

There are only three collegiate women officially entered in this field (the others are pacers). However, of those three entrants, one of them comes as a surprise.

I am, of course, talking about Emily Covert.

The Colorado standout had a challenging 2022 cross country season, coming off of an injury that ultimately led to a handful of up and down performances throughout the fall months. And for someone who had placed 4th over 10,000 at the outdoor national meet last spring, the expectations for her had been set sky high.

But then Covert opted to sit out for the indoor track season and was expected to do the same this spring -- and she kinda still is.

Because the NCAA doesn't recognize this meet for regional/national qualifying purposes, Covert can presumably race in a Colorado singlet while not having to worry about expending her eligibility.

The analysis, however, stops there. We simply haven't seen this Minnesota native race in quite some time. Trying to set expectations for her this weekend would be based around unfounded speculation. Although, at the very least, this will be a good check-in to see where Covert is at as she tries to rally for the fall of 2023.

The other two collegiates in this field are BYU's Aubrey Frentheway and Jenna Hutchins.

When it comes to Frentheway, it's hard to really offer a whole lot of analysis for her -- but that's not necessarily a bad thing.

This BYU runner is generally pretty solid. Sure, some of her races have been better than others, but if you look at her latest 5k (15:32) and 10k (32:34) personal bests, they have both come in competitive time-trial environments.

And given the nature of this 5k field, Frentheway could be in store for another top time, maybe something along the lines of 15:30 -- or at least in the 15:30s range.

However, it's Jenna Hutchins who really fascinates us.

The true freshman and recent high school distance running phenom had a flat-out bad 2022 cross country season in her small handful of appearances this past fall before being shut down for the season.

But throughout the winter months, Hutchins began to rally before returning to peak form at the Stanford Invite where she ran an incredible 5k time of 15:35!

Since then, Hutchins has posted a modest 1500 meter time of 4:20, but it's abundantly clear that this true rookie is in a much better spot than she was five months ago. Plus, almost everyone would agree that this Tennessee native is better in the longer distances.

It may seem ambitious, but...I wonder if Hutchins has the U20 American record for the women's outdoor 5k on her mind.

The current BYU rookie originally held the record (pending ratification) after running 15:34 (5k) in December of 2020, but then Natalie Cook ran 15:25 at the Stanford Invite last spring as a high schooler (which is also pending ratification).

Is a 15:25 (5k) mark a bit of stretch? Yes, that does sound like it would be asking a lot from Hutchins, but...is it totally out of reach for her? Honestly, no, I don't think it is.

Women's 3000 Meter Steeplechase

In terms of the overall talent in this field, not just collegiately, this race is going to be absurdly quick. This race features Olympic hopefuls and many of the best American women that this event has to offer.

And because of that, I can't imagine that West Virginia's Ceili McCabe has a goal steeplechase time any slower than 9:30 for this weekend.

Of course, that time isn't just a good round number and a marquee barrier-breaking mark.

A time of 9:30 in the steeplechase also happens to be McCabe's personal best in the event. And given how quick she was over the regular 3k race this past winter (running an 8:50 PR), one to has to think that she can reset her steeple PR this weekend.

For the most part, this Canadian Mountaineer runs incredibly well in-fast paced settings. And after cruising to a 9:45 effort in a solo steeplechase race a few weeks ago, this possible national title contender could be looking to make a statement -- and maybe even an argument that she's the favorite for gold come June.

We then come to BYU's Lexy Halladay-Lowry, a rising distance talent who has been having an overall excellent year across all three seasons of competition. She was an All-American on the grass, a pleasant surprise when qualifying for the indoor national meet over 3000 meters and ran a 9:49 (steeple) PR at the Bryan Clay Invite.

In terms of momentum, Halladay-Lowry has so much going for her. With the exception of the NCAA Indoor Championships, she (debatably) hasn't had a bad race throughout this entire academic calendar.

This experienced BYU athlete feels like a very safe bet to run a new personal best this weekend. I don't quite know how fast she'll run, but I would be surprised if she wasn't able to dip under 9:45 in the steeplechase.

Everything that we've seen from Halladay-Lowry suggests that she'll fare well in this field. Truthfully, she may actually be one of the safest women of this meet to make a prediction for.

The final collegiate to watch in this field is fellow BYU teammate, Sadie Sargent, one of the biggest breakout stars of the 2023 indoor track season.

After throwing down monster times of 4:35 (mile) and 8:57 (3k) on the indoor oval, this Cougar distance talent toed the line for the first steeple race of her career at the Bryan Clay Invite. The end result was a mark of 10:06 -- a solid effort, but nothing that jumped off of the page.

Can Sargent run faster than that this weekend? Yes, in my mind, I absolutely think she can. For an event debut, a 10:06 steeplechase time is plenty respectable. And now that she has some experience under her belt in that event, she should be able to dip under the 10-minute barrier.

Of course, the only questions is...by how much?

Men's 3000 Meter Steeplechase

There are three collegiates in this race, although each of them will likely have different goals and objectives.

Pomona-Pitzer's Colin Kirkpatrick is less than a second away from breaking the D3 steeplechase record of 8:43.78. After running 8:44 over the barriers and water pits earlier this season, the Sagehen star is clearly gunning for a time that has stood since 2008.

However, there is actually more than just a D3 record on the line for Kirkpatrick. If he runs fast enough, maybe around the 8:40 barrier, then he may be viewed as the default D3 national title favorite in the steeplechase this year.

Christian Patzka and Christopher Collet have continued to be major threats for NCAA gold in this event just like they were last year. But if Kirkpatrick can prove to be flat-out more fit than his competitors (and avoid any mishaps on the national stage like we saw last year), then I may have to go against the grain of my fellow TSR colleagues and take this west coast star as my favorite.

We then come to another west coast talent, this time at the Division One level: Portland State's Jordan MacIntosh.

The former Minnesota runner was a respectable distance talent while in the BIG 10, but has taken his fitness to another tier now that he's with the Vikings. MacIntosh had a solid cross country season, but seeing him run 8:41 and then 8:39 in the steeplechase this year was surprising. Truthfully, there was nothing on his resume to suggest that he could run that.

In fact, this season was the first time that he has ever contested the steeplechase!

After running 8:41 in the event and then making a two-second improvement to a mark of 8:39, it seems fair to suggest that MacIntosh could improve even further now that he has some race experience under his belt.

If the Portland State ace is going to make any further progress, then this field will definitely bring out the best in him. Of course, just like I have mentioned with a handful of other names in this preview, trying to know what MacIntosh's ceiling is this weekend feels like an unknown.

And then there is Kenneth Rooks, the BYU star who, as of right now, looks like the greatest threat to take down Duncan Hamilton in the steeplechase at this year's outdoor national meet.

To put it simply, Rooks has been incredible this season. He has easily dominated insanely deep steeplechase fields en route to times of 8:33 and 8:31. With an All-American honor from last spring and a steeplechase personal best of 8:22, Rooks is due to run much faster this weekend than he already has this spring.

The only knock we have on Rooks this season is that he has yet to compete against a field that can truly push him and give him a battle to the line. That, of course, will change this weekend. And by the end of Saturday, the Cougar veteran could be the new NCAA leader (faster than 8:25) in this event.

Women's 800 Meters (Invite)

The lone collegiate in this field, Claire Seymour, has been on fire as of late, extending her incredible success from the latter-half of the winter months.

Earlier this season, the BYU veteran ran a 2:01 (800) mark after a pacer stepped off. She then later posted a monumental half-mile PR of 2:00 in an insanely loaded field.

Now, with all of the momentum in the world on her side, Seymour has a very realistic shot at breaking the two-minute barrier over 800 meters. And in doing so, she would completely alter our understanding of what this Cougar star is capable of.

Seymour historically reaches her peak in the postseason, something that couldn't have been more evident this past winter after a tough start to her indoor track campaign. And if she run yet another PR this weekend, or even comes close to matching her PR, then I don't think we'll have any choice but to ask the question, "Just how far off from Willis, Whittaker and Rose is she?"

Now, admittedly, Seymour faltered a bit at the tail-end of last spring on the national stage as she failed to make the finals in the women's 800 meters. And truthfully, you have to wonder how much more upside this already-established middle distance ace still has.

Of course, I asked that same question after she ran 2:01 (800) this season and then she ended up posting a new PR of 2:00...so maybe a 1:59 result isn't so far-fetched to suggest after all.

Women's 1500 Meters (Invite)

Oregon's Izzy Thornton-Bott headlines this field as the only entered collegiate. And despite running a massive 4:08 PR for 1500 meters earlier this season, this Aussie distance standout actually has the slowest seed time in the field!

This is going to be a massive opportunity for Thornton-Bott to validate her early-season effort. Running 4:08 in the metric mile suggests that this Duck star can be a legitimate national title contender, although another performance under 4:10 would give us greater confidence in her chances to run fast whenever she needs to.

It's easy to look at Thornton-Bott's showing at the NCAA Indoor Championships in the mile finals (where she placed 9th) and say that she struggled. But generally speaking, when you look at her year as a whole, she has been fairly consistent.

Plus, this year's outdoor national meet in Austin, Texas won't have the same altitude variable that athletes had to deal with in Albuquerque, New Mexico this past winter. I imagine that something like that would at least slightly benefit this Aussie runner.

Men's 1500 Meters (Invite)

The theme/question of this race is simple: How fast can Fouad Messaoudi go?

The Oklahoma State superstar has been beyond incredible this year. His tactics have caught up with his raw fitness and his overall ability on the oval has largely surpassed most collegiates. He's just been that good.

Messaoudi's recent 1500 meter effort resulted in him earning a new 3:35 PR for the distance, emerging as the fourth-fastest collegiate ever for that event. And in another field full of top-tier pro runners, it's hard to ignore the fact that this Moroccan runner could scare the 1500 meter collegiate record of 3:33.74 set by Eliud Kipsang last spring.

Admittedly, Messaoudi's weekend double at the Penn Relays this past Friday and Saturday wasn't exactly ideal. While he was certainly far from bad, he just didn't seem to have the same gear switch or the ability to respond to moves/surges that we have seen from him in the past.

Of course, basing my prediction for this race off of one weekend would be an overreaction. Messaoudi may still be able to run 3:33 for 1500 meters, but even that task is a massively challenge despite his unreal talent.

Washington's versatile star, Brian Fay, is also in this race. He has plenty of experience in these kinds of environments and he posted a 3:52 in the mile this past winter.

I could see Fay running 3:36 or 3:37 for this distance on Saturday, but after his not-so-great showing at the indoor national meet in the mile, I don't envision this Husky standout entering this event on the national stage.

On paper, the 5k still makes the most sense for him...I think.

Women's 5000 Meters (Invite)

Here it is ladies and gentlemen, the race that we've all been waiting for.

This field consists of some of the best up-and-coming pro athletes that the American distance running scene has to offer, as well as an Olympian or two. To put it simply, the amount of talent set to toe the line for this race is almost overwhelming.

But it's a collegiate, not a pro runner, who has all of the attention going into this weekend.

I am, of course, talking about NC State phenom Katelyn Tuohy.

With a 5000 meter personal best of 15:14, all eyes will be on this Wolfpack megastar to see how fast she can truly push herself in this kind of field. And after running new NCAA records of 4:24 in the mile and 8:35 in the 3000 meters this past winter, the 5k record of 15:07 (set by Jenny Simpson back in 2007) seems destined to belong to Tuohy after this weekend.

However, the discussion that I have seen surrounding this race is not necessarily whether Tuohy can break the collegiate record, but rather if she can run under the 15-minute barrier entirely for the 5000 meter distance.

Could she do it? Yeah, probably. I'm done doubting anything about Tuohy, especially after that insane 3000 meter performance at the Millrose Games.

But being "capable" and actually doing something are two very different things. The odds are still against this NC State star who has specifically told David Monti in a recent piece that, "her main goal is to hit the auto standard for the US championships (15:09.59)."

Of course, it's impossible to ignore that this race will be paced for a goal time of 14:48 (5k). And the implications that come with running under 14:57.00 (the World Championship qualifying standard) feel like an even greater incentive for someone of Tuohy's caliber to chase.

Buckle up, this is gonna be a fun one.

Men's 5000 Meters (Invite)

Butler's Barry Keane is the only attached collegiate in this invitational 5000 meter field, holding a seed time of 13:21. The Bulldog standout has already run 28:04 for 10,000 meters this spring, an incredibly encouraging personal best.

However, he has yet to run a 5k on the outdoor oval this season, meaning that regardless of what he runs on Saturday, Keane still wont be qualified for the East Regional Championships.

Of course, with a few weeks left in the season, that isn't a massive priority (yet) for someone of his talent level.

A 5k result under 13:20 this weekend would certainly give this Butler veteran a resume that could at least argue for a top-25 spot in our distance rankings. But admittedly, I'm not sure how fast Keane would have to run for me to change my perspective on him.

Trying to find an x-factor that will allow him to avoid his recent string of national meet finishes (where he has just missed All-American honors) is the biggest thing that I'd like to see out of Keane before we go into mid-June.