2023 Boston University David Hemery Valentine Invitational Preview

TSR Collaboration
Feb 9, 2023
24 min read

Updated: Feb 9, 2023

Written by Maura Beattie, Scotty Loughlin & Gavin Struve, edits by Garrett Zatlin

Click here for predictions

*Note: This preview was written prior to official heat sheets being released. The Stride Report only had the accepted entries list available for this preview, meaning that certain names mentioned below could be absent from competition in Boston this weekend.

Who is your choice to emerge as the top collegiate in the women's 800 meters? Separately, which collegiate has the most to prove in this field?

Maura: It’s hard to choose between Michaela Rose of LSU and Valery Tobias of Texas. Rose may have the top time on the NCAA leaderboard in the 800 meters, but Tobias has been one of the most consistent runners during her time on the college scene.

The Longhorn All-American nearly matched her 2:02.14 personal best earlier this season, running a mere eleven-tenths of a second shy of setting a new PR. Seeing Tobias run similar times to how she ended the 2022 outdoor track season is extremely promising heading into mid-February. Obviously, Rose and other collegiate athletes won’t make things easy for Tobias, but the Texas runner has shown some fight over the course of her career.

So in this case, I'll take Tobias.

It’s been a phenomenal season so far for Bradley’s Wilma Nielsen and she doesn’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon. However, Nielsen hasn’t had the chance to race some of the best collegiate half-milers yet this season. After she ran 2:38.95 in the 1000 meters at Columbia’s Dr. Sander Invitational, which was the second-best time in NCAA history, Nielsen will need to prove that she belongs with the best in a championship-contested event.

Gavin: Michaela Rose should probably be the default favorite unless proven otherwise. Although she doesn’t have the established tactical prowess that some of the other women in this field boast, she’s run elite marks on multiple occasions and has displayed the best fitness early in the season (she is NCAA #1 on the national leaderboard, after all).

Imogen Barrett (Florida) would be my second choice given her reliable star power, but Rose ran over two seconds faster than her at the same meet, albeit in a different heat. I’m not sure the LSU ace has a ton to lose and this race will provide her an opportunity to improve upon her racing strategy or simply flaunt her fitness by outrunning her competition.

So long story short, give me Rose.

I’ll posit that this race is most critical for Claire Seymour. She hasn’t really looked like her normal dominant self since finishing runner-up at last year’s NCAA Indoor Championships. Since then, she failed to get out of the prelims at the NCAA Outdoor Championships, recorded a DNF this past December and ran a pair of 2:07 marks in recent weeks.

This race will surely be competitive enough to pull her to a fast time if she’s fit, but one could have said the same thing about the Razorback Invitational or the Camel City Invitational. I just have a hard time believing she won’t round into some semblance of her prior form as the postseason nears.

Scotty: I’ll give the edge to Michaela Rose as well, but she isn’t a heavy favorite by any means. The LSU star and current NCAA leader in the event was able to run away from her competition en route to her nation’s best mark, but she was robbed from the top heat at Arkansas and this will be a completely different style of race as she’s pushed by some of the nation’s best.

Still, I’ll lock in Rose as my pick to keep her stock increasing with a signature win.

As crazy as this would have sounded in March of last year, I’m following suit with Gavin and am tagging BYU’s Claire Seymour as the athlete with the most to prove in this field. In our TSR preview of the Camel City Invitational, I stated the following...

“If she fails to run a time in [the 2:03-2:04] range, then...I may need a ‘prove-it’ race from Seymour to make me believe again.”

And that is exactly where we find ourselves after Seymour recorded an unconverted 2:07 mark last weekend. The Cougar veteran has the most to prove from the perspective of how the rest of her season could play out.

Will we see the version of her that finished runner-up at the NCAA Indoor Championships last year? Or will she continue to struggle? This merciless field of competition should help us answer that question.

Who is the bigger favorite to emerge as the top collegiate in the men's 800 meters, Matthew Payamps or Sam Rodman? Which collegiate has the best chance of breaking up that duo?

Maura: Princeton’s Sam Rodman has run less than one second shy of his current 800 meter PR this season when he ran 1:47 at H-Y-P trie meet two weeks ago. The 1:46 sophomore athlete has won three individual races this indoor season, ranging from the 500 meters to the mile. The trajectory he is on right now is promising heading into this weekend, mainly because his streak of wins suggests that he still has some untapped potential.

Reed Cheery of Northeastern, another sophomore by eligibility, could make a big statement this weekend. He dropped nearly a full second off of his previous personal best when he ran himself to a 1:47 mark and a 2nd place finish two weeks ago on this same track.

Cherry was the winner of this very race, the BU Valentine Invitational, last year, and will be looking to hold onto the crown. Getting past Rodman and Payamps will obviously be tricky, but Cherry’s got the talent to do so.

Gavin: While Rodman is likely the superior pure half-miler, I’m more confident about Payamps entering this race. He has a PR within a couple tenths of a second of Rodman and he qualified for last winter’s NCAA Indoor Championships in another event.

His start to this season, aside from an "off" mile race two weeks ago, has been promising. Payamps won a competitive 1000 meter race in 2:20 and he even won a 800 meter race in his season debut at this exact venue. That familiarity may or may not offer an edge this weekend.

Reed Cherry definitely has the best chance of taking down Rodman, Payamps...or both. He has quietly thrived in competitive fields, riding Crayton Carrozza’s NCAA #1 mark to an impressive time (1:47.8) of his own. And, again, that mark was recorded on this track.

Cherry has raced relatively sparingly during this winter campaign and should be sharp with two weeks between competition. I’m not sure if it would qualify as a shock if he finished as the top collegiate.

Scotty: Breaking the tie of my two colleagues, I’ll settle the score by placing my confidence in Samuel Rodman. This race should be an excellent matchup between two east coast talents who have enjoyed very successful careers thus far, but between the two athletes, I have more confidence in Rodman at this distance. He was, after all, an All-American at the most recent outdoor national meet and he has already flexed early-season signs of fitness.

I personally don’t foresee any collegians breaking up the duo of Payamps and Rodman, but if I had to choose, I’d go with Rider’s Tamrat Snyder.

Snyder holds a very strong 800 meter PR of 1:47.70 (outdoors) and is fresh off of a new personal best in the mile of 4:03. With the quality of competition in this field, I like the prospects of Snyder bettering his indoor PR of 1:49.53 by a good margin.

How many collegiates will run under 4:35 in the women's mile? Is there a sole collegiate favorite?

Maura: I’m banking on eight under 4:35: Lindsey Butler (Virginia Tech), Riley Chamberlain (BYU), Mia Barnett (UCLA), Shannon Flockhart (Providence), Izzy Thornton-Bott (Oregon), Flomena Asekol (Alabama), Katherine Mitchell (Boston College) and Margot Appleton (Virginia).

Virginia Tech’s Lindsey Butler jumps off the page for me in the mile. The reigning NCAA indoor 800 meter champion has a set of wheels, but she’s also got some serious strength. I would view her as the collegiate favorite.

Butler split 4:29 last winter for 1600 meter on the DMR at the ACC Indoor Championships. Her current mile PR of 4:40 should be blown out of the water this weekend if Butler can channel her 2:01 half-mile speed.

Gavin: Given how conducive this field is to running nationally competitive times, I think eight is the right number. I see Silan Ayyildiz (South Carolina), Samantha Bush (NC State), Butler, Thornton-Bott, Flockhart, Asekol, Barnett and one other surprise name all dipping under 4:35.

There doesn’t appear to be a clear collegiate favorite in a field this deep. You could make an argument that Flockhart is due for a big performance after running 4:10 for the 1500 meters last spring. Then there is Silan Ayyildiz, who has also run 4:10 of 1500 meters. She is relatively green to the NCAA scene, but is as fast on paper as anyone in this race. She is also undefeated this season.

Butler is probably the safest pick, though. If her strength is up to par this season, she’s capable of keeping pace with the pros in this field or positioning herself ahead of any of the collegiates.

Scotty: I must be a hater, because I’m only selecting six women to run under 4:35. I’m almost expecting to be wrong given how wildly fast the NCAA has been this season, but at the very least, I can stick to my guns during this preview and plead my case.

I’m banking on sub-4:35 efforts from Silan Ayyildiz (South Carolina), Margot Appleton (Virginia), Shannon Flockhart (Providence), Lindsey Butler (Virginia Tech), Izzy Thornton-Bott (Oregon) and Flomena Asekol (Alabama). I see Riley Chamberlain (BYU) and Samantha Bush (NC State) close behind in the 4:35 to 4:36 range.

Taking the coward’s way out, I’ll simply answer the second question as “no.”

This field mentions incredible 1500/mile depth as Gavin mentioned while also featuring 800 meter stars with underrated strength like Butler. If I had to make a selection for a collegiate favorite, I’d settle on Flockhart given her 1500 meter All-American honor and her step up in fitness that was on display during cross country season. However, I wouldn’t consider her a true favorite in the race.

Which three collegiates have the most to prove in the women's mile field? And why?

Maura: Samantha Bush of NC State hasn’t been nearly as dominant as she was last winter. Even though the Wolfpack runner ran 8:54 (3k) in December, her recent 4:35 (flat-track converted) mile still shows that she has more in the tank. Bush isn’t sitting in the top-16 right now on the mile national leaderboard and will need a big performance to propel her forward.

Mia Barnett of UCLA will be racing for the second time in her newest uniform after transferring mid-year from Virginia. She opened her indoor track season with a respectable 9:14 (3k) mark, but dipping down in distance, to an event that she ran 4:33 in last year, should be a good indicator of potential future success under first-year coach, Sean Brosnan.

Katherine Mitchell of Boston College has been secretly putting together major performances, but they are no longer going unnoticed. In the last two weeks, Mitchell has run 2:03 (800) and 4:35 (mile). Her mile PR is impressive considering her previous personal best was 4:40. This weekend will be Mitchell’s chance to prove her recent success isn’t a fluke.

Gavin: Shannon Flockhart could use a strong mark this weekend given that she’s raced just once this weekend...and in an "off" event. She had a solid cross country campaign for being a miler first and foremost, and her aforementioned 1500 meter PR is certainly a step above her 4:36 mile personal best, although the latter is still a strong mark.

Barnett may be making one of the most anticipated entries of this season given that she shocked the country this winter with a transfer to UCLA. However, that should’t take away from her talent as she’ll be in contention to emerge as the top collegiate this weekend and drop an eye-popping time.

It will also be interesting to see how Riley Chamberlain fares as a freshman in such an imposing field. She thrived at the Razorback invitational en route to a 4:33, but this meet seems to be filled with even more elite-level names. Can she replicate that result? Or even build upon it from across the country?

Scotty: Calli Doan from Liberty is at the top of my list. Known throughout her career as a cross country specialist, the Flame senior recently broke 4:40 for the first time in the mile and took down Sarah Hendrick in the process. She has every capability of setting another personal best and adding an element of range to her illustrious resume.

Next up, I’ve got Carmen Alder of BYU. Although Alder has yet to unleash the 4:36 mile speed that we saw from her as a freshman, she’s proven to be competitive in high-quality fields. Plus, the timing feels just right for her to regain her stardom and run at (or near) a new PR.

Like Maura and Gavin, I’m also looking forward to seeing what kind of effort Mia Barnett can produce. Her first mark as a UCLA Bruin was a modest (but solid) 9:14 (3k), but as a natural miler, I’ve got my eyes perked up to see what she can do at her best event in the short time that she’s begun training under Sean Brosnan.

How many collegiates will run under 3:56 in the men's mile? Which of these men has the greatest chance of winning the mile national title in March?

Maura: I’m going to say six men break 3:56 this weekend: Anass Essayi (South Carolina), Thomas Vanoppen (Wake Forest), Isaac Basten (Drake), Vivien Henz (Harvard), Crayton Carrozza (Texas) and Nick Foster (Michigan).

I’m going to make an argument for two of these men to have the best chance at winning the mile in March because we still have plenty of racing time until the indoor national meet. Give me Vanoppen and Basten who each have experience and amazing race tactics in their toolbox.

The Wake Forest stud ran a flat-track converted 3:58 (mile) last week, backing up his 7:48 (3k) effort, nicely. Vanoppen is sneaky-good thanks in part to not only his speed, but also his strength. If he can channel 3:37 (1500) speed this weekend and come out with the win, then a victory in March is very possible.

Drake’s Isaac Basten has a lethal kick and is the guy you don’t want around on the last lap. The Bulldog ace is without training partner Adam Fogg after the latter graduated this past spring, but that shouldn’t affect what Basten can bring to the table.

He was a middle of the pack runner in high school, but has since taken off under the direction of Coach Jay Koloseus. With a 3:57 mile season best as of now, the possibility for Basten to lower that comes this weekend, as well as a chance to prove himself as a title contender.

Gavin: In what’s been perhaps the fastest year in NCAA distance running history, I’ll go bold here for the deepest collegiate men’s mile field of 2023.

Like the amount of women under 4:35, seven feels like the right number for men to go sub-3:55. Essayi, Vanoppen, Basten, Crayton, Foster, Crayton Carrozza (Texas), Matthew Rizzo (Georgetown) and Casey Clinger (BYU) are the names who I see achieving the feat.

Given his upside, as indicated by a 3:34 (1500) personal best and 7:41 (3k) from just a couple of weeks ago, Essayi has the best shot at taking gold in the men’s mile next month.

His collegiate inexperience showed at last season’s NCAA Outdoor Championships, but he has as much upside and ability as any man in the NCAA distance running sphere right now. Vanoppen, because of the tactical mastery that we’ve seen from him and his sneaky-good raw speed, has to be viewed as a dark horse contender as well.

Scotty: Once again, I look like a hater, but if we’re evaluating who could run 3:55 or faster, I can’t picture more than two of these men following through with such a feat. I’m taking the top two seeded collegiates: Anass Essayi (South Carolina) and Crayton Carrozza (Texas).

From a national title perspective, I feel much more strongly about Carrozza. He displayed the clutch gene last winter as part of Texas’ DMR title at last year’s NCAA Indoor Championships.

And for as talented as Essayi is, I don’t trust him in an event with multiple rounds until he redeems himself from his odd DNF at the 2022 outdoor national meet where he peculiarly stepped off the track with 100 meters to go in the mile prelims.

Which three collegiates have the most to prove in the men's mile field? And why?

Maura: I know he has a 3:57 mile PR to his name, but Crayton Carrozza of Texas needs to prove that he can translate his recent 1:46 (800) speed to the mile. The Boston University track was kind to Carrozza at the John Thomas Terrier Classic when he ran his third career 1:46 mark (talk about consistency), but can he finally make the big jump into the sub-3:55 mile zone?

Davis Bove of LSU ran a 3:56 in the mile last winter at the Music City Challenge, but after quite some time away from racing, Bove has to prove that his mile speed is still there.

After recording a DNF result at the LSU Purple Tiger Invite, Bove recorded a solid 4:01 mark at the Razorback Invite. At first glance, that 4:01 looks pretty good, but Bove only finished 13th in that race and was still five seconds off of his PR.

There’s a lot riding on Bove’s season this weekend if he can finish not only amongst the top-five, but also record one of the nation’s top times.

During the 2021 indoor track season, BYU gave the NCAA a star freshman in Lucas Bons, a 3:55 miler. However, two years later, we haven’t seen Bons come close to matching that mark.

We have seen the sophomore talent race twice this season, recording an altitude-converted 1:49 (800) mark as well as a 4:00 mile time, but he hasn't posted anything truly spectacular when you consider how fast men are racing this winter. Bons will need to run lights out this weekend to match his 2021 personal best.

Gavin: I agree that Bove has much to prove after an apparent fall-off from his breakout 2021 form. The 3:56 miler has run “just” 4:00 this year. If he runs at his best, then he can mix it up with the top NCAA runners in this field. This weekend may be his last (and best) chance at a qualifying mark for the indoor national meet.

Essayi, who I view as the collegiate favorite, also has a lot to prove by virtue of holding the best 1500/mile mark in this field, along with this year’s NCAA #2 time over 3000 meters. He has yet to run a mile this season and will have (perhaps unfairly) high expectations on him in his sophomore season. Anything short of an improvement on his 3:57 mile PR could be seen as a disappointment.

Lastly, I’ll go with Clinger, another guy who I expect to exceed expectations this weekend. While a letdown wouldn’t necessarily ruin his momentum, he could really use a confidence-building result in this middle distance race to show us that he has enough speed to contest for a top finish at the NCAA Championships in the longer distances. I think he’s due for it given that he’s a 3:38 (1500) guy who out-dueled the Stanford trio in a recent 3k.

Scotty: Casey Clinger of BYU comes to mind for a unique reason. He’s already displayed great range by being a sub-4:00 miler who is arguably at his best at the 10k on the grass. However, if he’s able to churn out a 3:57 (or faster) to tack on to his 7:43 (3k) mark that he just blazed over the Stanford stars, then Clinger will enter the postseason as a legitimate national title contender over 5000 meters in my eyes, at least with that level of speed.

Gary Martin is on my radar, too. Will the high school star begin to find his rhythm against collegiate competition during the indoor track season? Or will we have to wait until the spring (or even next year) to see Martin compete like he did at the prep level? Although he’s done it before, a sub-4:00 mile would be huge for Martin’s confidence at this point of the season.

Lastly, I feel like Oregon’s Elliot Cook is being unappreciated for the potential that he has to perform at a high level in the mile. Cook has been on a tear this season in the 800 meters where he ran 1:46 as well as the 1000 meters where Cook bolted past former Duck Matthew Centrowitz to the tune of a 2:20 PR. Expect Cook to run well under his current mile PR of 3:59.

Parker Valby & Hilda Olemomoi headline the collegiate entries in the women's 3000 meters. What is the absolute fastest that you could see either of these two athletes running this weekend?

Maura: NC State’s Katelyn Tuohy and Alabama’s Mercy Chelangat will be going for fast times in the 3k at the Millrose Games, but the Valentine Invite is all about Valby and Olemomoi.

For these two SEC foes, an 8:46 mark doesn’t seem to be out of the question.

Florida’s Paker Valby is on a different level since running 8:53 (3k) last winter. That showing is Valby’s only go at the 3k (collegiately) and even though there is the lack of event experience, her 15:20 (5k) strength makes the case for a fast time this weekend.

It will be truly entertaining to see what Alabama’s Hilda Olemomoi does this weekend because we know that Valby is not afraid to break away early and run solo. So will Olemomoi match the move?

The Alabama sophomore has only raced once this winter, producing a head-turning 15:17 (5k) mark back in December, but I’m not worried about her extended absence. The extra training will surely pay off for Olemomoi in a big way, especially on the PR front as she currently has a 10:05 personal best.

Gavin: Given the large pro contingent littering this meet -- this race being no exception -- these two SEC superstars will have a prime opportunity to drop an all-time mark. I’d say 8:43-ish is the ceiling.

All things equal, I don’t see Olemomoi competing with Valby in this shorter distance, but she could still put forth one of the NCAA’s best times this year. I’d almost be surprised if Valby didn’t run under 8:50.

Scotty: Scout’s honor, I came up with my prediction before seeing Maura’s guess and I also settled on 8:46.

First, let’s take a moment to recognize just how rocket-fast that would be. Only THREE women in NCAA history have surpassed such a time. But if you’ve read my thoughts in this article up and to this point, then you’ll likely realize that I’m not someone who tends to be overly optimistic in these predictions.

In other words, I think these two women are legitimately capable of running 8:46.

Of the two, women I have more confidence in Parker Valby. Last year, she set her PR of 8:53 completely unchallenged, and I think we all can agree that she has taken a substantial leap in her fitness since then.

Valby's front-running tactics were on display throughout the 2022 cross country season shouldn’t be needed in this loaded field featuring various pro athletes, so the Gator star could channel that aggressive racing style into a vicious last kilometer. And if the first 2000 meters are executed effectively, I genuinely believe that she’ll be close to 8:45.

Which collegiate(s) other than Valby and Olemomoi have the best chance of running under 8:50? Which collegiate do you irrationally like in this field?

Maura: Stephanie Cotter of Adams State and Samantha Bush of NC State could see a sub-8:50 mark when they cross the finish line. In my eyes, Cotter’s chances are a little more likely than Bush’s, mainly because Bush may go after the mile.

Cotter will be making her 3k event debut this weekend. And even though she doesn’t have experience in the 3k, her success in the 800/1500, as well as in cross country, makes a solid case. The Adams State ace has 4:14 (150) speed and 19:15 (6k) strength on the grass.

On paper, that makes the 3000 meters her ideal event...well, theoretically.

As for Bush, her 8:54 (3k) and 15:35 (5k) personal bests prove that she’s on the cusp of a sub-8:50 performance. If she is fresh, then there’s no doubt that the 8:50 barrier could be broken given the competition and Bush’s natural foot-speed.

Over last few weeks, Mackenna Curtis-Collins of Wake Forest has caught my eye. She might not be a top collegiate favorite, but the Demon Deacon ace is making strides in the right direction, especially towards the sub-9:00 barrier.

This season alone, the senior from Wake Forest has dropped times of 4:38 (mile) and a flat-track converted 9:04 (3k). Curtis-Collins doesn’t have the flashy resume that her competition does, but that doesn’t mean anything. The race still has to be run.

So yes, I do like her in this field, but for rationale reasons, of course.

Gavin: It would hardly qualify as a shock if Mercy Chelangat put herself right with the two aforementioned women, but she's more likely running at Millrose rather than in Boston. For that reason, I'll say that no one other than Valby and Olemomoi have realistic chances of going under 8:50.

I think Alexandra Carlson has a chance to run a nationally competitive time, especially after her 4:31 mile effort and a 2:06 half-mile result from last weekend. A sub-9:00 (3k) mark for the face of an upstart Rutgers distance program is absolutely realistic, and maybe even expected.

Scotty: Back to my regularly scheduled pessimism.

If we were setting the line at sub-8:55 I’d feel encouraged at Samantha Bush’s chances, but I can’t see anyone besides Parker Valby and Hilda Olemomoi breaking 8:50. That’s just way too fast of a benchmark for me to be comfortable predicting anyone else to finish within.

But wait, we’re allowing irrational takes thanks to the second part of this question!

In that case, through nothing more than a long-shot, I’ll take a flier on Stephanie Cotter obliterating the NCAA D2 record over 3000 meters by more than 20 seconds in a race where she pulls out all the stops and hangs with Valby for as long as possible.

Is there a sole favorite, collegiately, in the men's 3000 meters? If so, who and why? If not, then who are the top contenders to emerge as the top collegiate?

Maura: Butler’s Jesse Hamlin was extremely impressive back in December when he ran 7:44 at the Boston University Season Opener. This track treated him well then and that should hopefully be the case this weekend as well.

Hamlin may have just run his mile PR of 4:04 at Notre Dame last weekend, but that shouldn’t deter him from taking down his collegiate competitors this weekend.

Gavin: I don’t there is. Because the man with the top time in this field, Butler’s Jesse Hamlin, is hardly the most proven. Plus, he set that mark two months ago while looking less sharp than last week. I’d argue that Hamlin, Graham Blanks, Liam Murphy, Zach Facioni, Sam Gilman, Hillary Cheruiyot and Antonio Lopez Segura all have a puncher’s chance at winning this race (or at least emerging as the top collegiate).

Scotty: I’m with Gavin on this one. There’s a wide range of solid 3k runners in this field, but no one who truly strikes me as a favorite. Like Maura, I’ve got my eye on Jesse Hamlin as a top contender and I also expect Sam Gilman, Acer Iverson and Liam Murphy to post sub-7:50 marks as well.

What is the most interesting collegiate entry that you see in the men's 3000 meters?

Maura: Jack Aho of North Carolina is benefitting from the extra season that he earned from COVID-19. The North Carolina Tar Heel, who transferred from Michigan at the beginning of the 2021-2022 academic year, has run times in both the mile and the 5k this winter.

Aho is more of a long distance runner given his 13:31 (5k) and 28:53 (10k) marks, but dropping down in distance might give the senior some extra momentum as the races get longer.

And I'll admit, I’m going to show some bias here towards Aho. We raced in the same Illinois high school track and cross country conference. So there’s going to be a little more interest in what Aho can do to not only represent North Carolina, but also the Fox Valley Conference alumni.

Gavin: Probably LSU’s Davis Bove. He’s a major talent, but given that he’s off to a slower start this winter, one would think it would be most beneficial for him to focus on one event, ideally his main event, the mile.

Maybe he scratches or doesn’t finish one of those races, but I don’t see him as a candidate to win this race or qualify for the indoor national meet in this event despite the fact that he is capable of laying down a solid time.

Scotty: Georgetown’s Lucas Guerra intrigues me when I combine his past results with the positive trajectory that he’s on right now. For an athlete who holds a 3k PR of 8:04, a seed time of 7:53 would probably seem overly aggressive...but it starts to feel more realistic when you see Guerra’s recent results.

The Hoya sophomore opened his season with an eyebrow-raising 2:22 (1k) mark and backed that up with a 3:58 (mile) PR which was his first time under the four minute barrier on an indoor track. I like the direction in which Guerra is trending and I expect him to blow past the eight minute 3k barrier this weekend.

Which three collegiate women are you the most interested in seeing race over 5000 meters this weekend?

Maura: It’s not surprising to see an NC State athlete draw some interest.

Freshman Grace Hartman ran a flat-track converted 4:41 (mile) time and a 9:16 (3k) PR earlier this season. She will be making her event debut, collegiately, in the 5k this weekend. Hartman’s ceiling is high and by gaining confidence and experience this year, the next few years could garner some big results for the new Wolfpack member.

As a past MAC competitor myself, I still closely follow the conference. Carmen Riano of Miami (OH) has kept the conference relevant since the 2022 outdoor track season. Riano has run personal bests this winter in the mile, the 3k and the 5k -- but it’s her 5k mark that takes the cake.

The RedHawk ace’s 15:50 PR following the immediate conclusion of the 2022 cross country season could see another improvement after Riano focused on some speed over these last few weeks.

Finally, it's the 9:06 (3k) result, a massive 13-second PR, at the John Thomas Terrier Invite that brings Angelina Rafter of Central Connecticut to my mind. The senior athlete has recorded two personal bests on this track so far this winter. Will another new mark come this weekend for the Blue Devil veteran?

Gavin: Probably Makayla Perez. She’ll be racing a host of big names and it would be fun to see someone in a Western Michigan singlet -- a school that is less relevant since PJ Fleck and Corey Davis departed -- mixing it up from the front.

I’m also interested in seeing how Carmen Riano fares. She was great this past fall and has a chance to improve upon her breakout 15:50 (5k) mark from this locale in December, while in perhaps a less imposing field.

Gionna Quarzo, a very talented runner in her own right, but often an afterthought on NC State’s loaded roster, could emerge as one of the better amateurs in this field and perhaps lay an NCAA qualifying mark if she has a day where it all comes together.

Scotty: For being easily one of the top-100 cross country runners in the nation, Penn’s Maeve Stiles has been more modest on the oval. That said, she’s already begun to show improvements with new personal bests this season of 4:48 (mile) and 9:16 (3k). Stiles currently holds a PR of 16:13 in the 5k and is seeded at 15:55. My bold prediction is that she hits the seed time exactly.

Like Maura, I also am enthusiastic about the recent progression displayed by Angelina Rafter. She is a name in D1 that you may not know, but you should given her recent marks outlined by Maura. I like Rafter’s chances of shaving another five or more seconds off her 5k PR in this race.

Lastly, but certainly not least, I am by far the most interested in seeing how fast Jasmine Fehr of Tennessee can run. Formerly of Portland, Fehr has spent much of her career as a miler, but after popping off an impressive 9:09 (3k) mark in January, signs point to the Volunteer star being able to crush her current 5k PR of 16:12.

While Fehr’s seed time of 15:40 admittedly feels aggressive, I am expecting her to make a splash and chop off 20 or more seconds from her current personal best.

Which three collegiate men are you the most interested in seeing race over 5000 meters this weekend?

Maura: There’s not much to say about my first pick here. Notre Dame’s Carter Solomon kicked his way to victory at the ACC XC Championships this past fall and if there’s anything I learned after that race, you don’t bet against the Fighting Irish sophomore. A recent 3:57 mile PR indicates that a 5k time faster than 13:40 is in the cards for Solomon.

Akron freshman Brian Masai will be making his collegiate 5k debut this weekend. After recording two back-to-back 4:03 mile times, a jump up in distance is surprising to see. One would think Masai would put some focus on lowering his 8:10 (3k) PR, but maybe he has some solid strength to capitalize on.

David Mullarkey of Florida State is a fresh face on the NCAA scene. The Seminoles got a good one though in the British distance talent as he has a 13:43 (5k) PR to his name. And yes, current collegiates are running much faster than that, so this season will be all about gaining experience for the sophomore. Luckily, this Boston University track is his oyster this weekend and a PR could be in his sights if he runs within himself.

Gavin: Victor Kiprop was considered an NCAA title contender as recently as this past fall, but a bad day at the NCAA XC Championships and a quiet start to this indoor track season have contributed to him flying under the radar. Still, he's capable of mixing it up with the top pros in this field.

Carter Solomon erupted into the public conscious last fall and quietly has laudable credentials across the distance events on the oval. Could he cement his status as the new face of the Notre Dame program (more than he already has) with a major result this weekend?

Finally, Dillon Powell -- who’s still in the transfer portal -- has an opportunity to compete with the best men at the Division One level. Given that he already holds a 13:33 (5k) personal best, he could drop one of the best marks that the Division Two ranks have ever seen, assuming he’s fit.

Scotty: I am shocked that no one has mentioned Alex Phillip yet! The John Carroll superstar has been on an absolute tear over the last calendar year and most recently set a new Division Three record of 7:53 (3k) on this very track.

Phillip has his work cut out for him. The veteran holds a PR of 13:58 on an oversized track and is targeting a 13:53 mark that has stood for nearly 30 years. My prediction is that Phillip breaks 14:00, but ends up just a few seconds short of the magical mark.

Piggybacking off Gavin, I’m excited to see Carter Solomon in this field. As a fellow Michigan native, I follow the prep level in our state closely, and Solomon was an absolute phenom.

While he’s been somewhat overshadowed by the elite performances of former Notre Dame teammates Yared Nuguse and Dylan Jacobs, Solomon’s most recent cross country season -- where he finished 18th at the NCAA XC Championships -- proved that he’s reached another level. He’s seeded at 13:26 (5k) and I feel like that’s exactly where he’ll end up.

Oh, and you thought Tom Brady retired? Think again!

The Michigan track star, whose name mirrors the NFL legend, will toe the line in hopes of bettering his 13:48 (5k) PR. Similar to my comments on Maeve Stiles in the previous question, I’ve looked at Brady as a stronger runner on the grass throughout his career. However, he has run sub-8:00 in the 3k on multiple occasions. I’m looking forward to seeing if he can have a breakthrough race at the longer distance and break into the 13:30 range over 5000 meters.