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2022 Kolas XC Projections (Men & Women): Pre-Regional Breakdown
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Nov 2, 2022
- 14 min read
Thanks to the incredible work from our friend, Bo Waggoner, we were able to collect data and then utilize his website, XC Quals, to construct our national meet qualifying projections for the Division One level.
Be sure to check out Bo's site and play around with your own regional meet orders!
Also, if you want to learn more about the Kolas national qualifying process, be sure to also check out our UNDERSTANDING KOLAS page!
With that said, here are our projections for the national meet. Below, we listed all of our automatic qualifiers (the projected top-two teams in each region) and then broke down how certain teams would receive their at-large bids.
Let's begin!
Projected Men's Regional Results
*TEAMS IN BOLD INDICATE AUTO-LOCKS*
GREAT LAKES
1. Wisconsin Badgers
2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
3. Michigan Wolverines
4. Butler Bulldogs
5. Indiana Hoosiers
6. Michigan State Spartans
MID-ATLANTIC
1. Villanova Wildcats
2. Princeton Tigers
3. Georgetown Hoyas
4. Navy Midshipmen
MIDWEST
1. Oklahoma State Cowboys
2. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes
3. Iowa State Cyclones
4. South Dakota State Jackrabbits
MOUNTAIN
1. BYU Cougars
2. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
3. Air Force Falcons
4. Colorado Buffaloes
5. Montana State Bobcats
6. Colorado State Rams
7. Utah State Aggies
8. Wyoming Cowboys
NORTHEAST
1. Syracuse Orange
2. Harvard Crimson
3. Providence Friars
4. Iona Gaels
SOUTH
1. Tennessee Volunteers
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
3. Ole Miss Rebels
4. Florida State Seminoles
SOUTH CENTRAL
1. Arkansas Razorbacks
2. Texas Longhorns
3. Texas A&M Aggies
SOUTHEAST
1. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
2. North Carolina Tar Heels
3. NC State Wolfpack
4. Virginia Cavaliers
5. Charlotte 49ers
6. Duke Blue Devils
7. Eastern Kentucky Colonels
8. Furman Paladins
WEST
1. Stanford Cardinal
2. Portland Pilots
3. California Baptist Lancers
4. Oregon Ducks
5. Washington Huskies
6. Gonzaga Bulldogs
7. Cal Poly Mustangs
8. Boise State Broncos
Projected Men's At-Large Qualifiers
At-Large Bid #1: Air Force Falcons
The Air Force men are the clear and obvious pick to take our first at-large bid to the national meet. The Falcons defeated our projected auto-lock teams a total of 11 times this fall, giving them the most Kolas points of any cross country program at this point in our selection process.
With their advancement, the Air Force men give out one Kolas point to Colorado via their loss to the Buffaloes at the Cowboy Jamboree.
At-Large Bid #2: Colorado Buffaloes
The Colorado men are the next team selected to the national meet. They hold 10 Kolas points, the most of any other team still in consideration to advance to the NCAA XC Championships at this point in our selection process.
However, even if Colorado didn't earn that extra Kolas point from Air Force, then the Buffaloes would have still taken this second at-large bid with ease.
Colorado gives away no points to any teams who are still waiting to be selected.
At-Large Bid #3: NC State Wolfpack
The NC State men are the next team selected to the national meet. They hold four Kolas points, the most of any other team still in consideration to advance to the NCAA XC Championships at this point in our selection process.
The Gonzaga men also boast four Kolas points, but because there are two or more teams ahead of them in their region who have not yet been selected for the national meet, we can't entertain the Bulldogs at this point in the selection process.
With NC State now being selected, the Wolfpack grant one point (each) to Montana State, Charlotte, Butler, Cal Poly and Michigan. That's because all of those teams beat NC State at Joe Piane earlier this season.
At-Large Bid #4: Montana State Bobcats
The next eligible team with the most Kolas points is Oregon who holds three points. Gonzaga continues to hold four Kolas points, but cannot yet be selected.
The Ducks are projected to finish 4th overall in their region while California Baptist is projected to finish 3rd in that same region. In this scenario, Oregon would theoretically "push" the California Baptist men into the national meet.
However, the NCAA wants to avoid "push" scenarios whenever possible. And since we can calculate that the Oregon men will eventually qualify for the national meet on their own, we're going to hold off on selecting them for now.
Instead, we are left with Montana State, Butler and Michigan who all have three Kolas points. They would have all lost to Oregon on the tie-breaker for this spot.
Butler lost to Montana State at both Pre-Nationals and Joe Piane. Meanwhile, Michigan also lost to Montana State at Joe Piane. With the Bobcats emerging from this three-team tie-breaker without a head-to-head loss, they are selected as the next team to be selected to the national meet.
Montana State gives away no points to any teams who are still waiting to be selected.
At-Large Bid #5: Michigan Wolverines
Oregon is still waiting to be selected and Gonzaga is not yet eligible to be selected to the national meet. As a result, we are left with Michigan and Butler in yet another three-team tie-breaker.
Butler lost to Michigan at Joe Piane, but because the Wolverines are projected to beat the Bulldogs at the Great Lakes Regional XC Championships, which is the meet that will have come more recently, the Michigan men ultimately get the head-to-head tie-breaking win.
With the Michigan men advancing to the national meet, they give one point (each) to Charlotte, Butler and Cal Poly (who beat the Wolverines at Joe Piane) as well as Oregon, Washington, Utah State, Georgetown, Colorado State and Duke (who beat the Wolverines at Nuttycombe).
At-Large Bid #6: Butler Bulldogs
With four Kolas points, the Butler Bulldogs are the next team selected to the national meet. Both Oregon and Gonzaga have four points (each), but the Ducks will eventually get into the national meet on their own without a push while the Gonzaga men are not yet eligible to be selected.
With Butler being chosen as the next team to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships, the Bulldogs give one point (each) to Charlotte (who beat Butler at Joe Piane), Georgetown and Providence (who beat Butler at the BIG East XC Championships) as well as California Baptist (who beat Butler at Pre-Nationals).
At-Large Bid #7: Virginia Cavaliers (push)
At-Large Bid #8: Charlotte 49ers
Despite holding the most Kolas points, we're still waiting for Oregon to be selected and we're still waiting for Gonzaga to be eligible for a national meet selection.
Both the Charlotte men and the Georgetown men are tied with three Kolas points each. However, neither team has had a head-to-head matchup this fall. As a result, we need to compare all of the common opponents that Charlotte and Georgetown shared this fall and then see who has the highest winning percentage against that group.
When comparing common opponents, we see that Charlotte has a clear edge over Georgetown, holding a winning percentage of roughly 72% while the Hoyas boasted a winning percentage of 61.53%.
As a result, the 49ers get the tie-breaking win.
However, Charlotte is projected to finish 5th overall in the Southeast region, one spot behind the Virginia men. Right now, the Cavaliers only hold one point and they would not be selected to the national meet based on their total number of Kolas points.
But since the UVA men are expected to finish one spot ahead of Charlotte at their regional meet, they will get "pushed" into the NCAA XC Championships by the 49ers. This is because the 5th place team in a region cannot qualify for the national meet without the 4th place team also getting into the national meet (and so on down the results).
Since Virginia is pushed into the national meet, they do not give out any points. The Charlotte men give away no points to any remaining teams who are still waiting to be selected.
At-Large Bid #9: Georgetown Hoyas
Once again, Oregon is still waiting to be selected and Gonzaga is not yet eligible to be selected despite both teams holding four Kolas points each.
Instead, the Georgetown men are the next team selected to the national meet. They hold the next-most points of any remaining team with three Kolas points.
With their advancement to the national meet, the Hoyas give one point (each) to Oregon and Washington (who beat Georgetown at Nuttycombe) as well as Providence (who beat Georgetown at the BIG East XC Championships).
The Hoyas also give two points to Utah State who beat Georgetown once at Paul Short and another time at Nuttycombe.
At-Large Bid #10: Colorado State Rams (push)
At-Large Bid #11: Utah State Aggies
After earning two huge Kolas points from Georgetown, the Utah State men now hold a total of four Kolas points. Oregon now has five points (and are still waiting to be selected) while Gonzaga can't get into the national meet yet since there are two or more teams still projected to finish ahead of them in their region.
Utah State is the next team to be selected to the national meet. However, the Colorado State men are expected to finish ahead of the Aggies in their region. Right now, the Rams only hold two points and they would not be selected to the national meet based on their total number of Kolas points.
But since the Colorado State men are expected to finish one spot ahead of Utah State at their regional meet, they will get "pushed" into the NCAA XC Championships. This is because the 7th place team in a region cannot qualify for the national meet without the 6th place team also getting into the national meet (and so on down the results).
Since Colorado State is pushed into the national meet, they do not give out any points. However, the Utah State men give away one point to Oregon and one point to Washington.
At-Large Bid #12: California Baptist Lancers
With Utah State now into the national meet, and Colorado State also being pushed in, we are left with a two-point tie-breaker scenario between California Baptist, Duke and Providence.
And yes, Oregon is still waiting while Gonzaga is still not eligible. They both have more Kolas points than either of the three teams mentioned above.
Providence loses a head-to-head tie-breaker against Duke since the Blue Devils beat the Friars at Nuttycombe. As a result, the Providence men are eliminated from consideration for this national qualifying selection spot.
However, Duke and CBU have not faced each other head-to-head this fall. This means that we need to compare their common opponents from this season and see who has the higher winning percentage against that group.
When the results were tallied, the Lancers held a clear edge, holding a rough 72% win rate against those common opponents while Duke only had a 40% win rate.
As a result, California Baptist becomes the first at-large team selected out of the West region. They give away no points to any teams who are still waiting to be selected.
At-Large Bid #13: Oregon Ducks
It took some time, but we can finally select the Oregon men without pushing another team into the national meet (just like the NCAA qualifying selection process asks for). With six Kolas points, the Ducks easily have the most Kolas points remaining of any team not yet qualified for the national meet.
Oregon gives one Kolas point to Washington, a team that beat the Ducks at the PAC-12 XC Championships.
First Team Out: Washington Huskies
Shockingly, our projections have the Washington men not advancing to the national meet.
Instead, in this scenario, the Huskies are the first team out of the national meet. With five Kolas points, they have the most remaining points of any team that has not yet been selected to attend the NCAA XC Championships.
Yes, the Huskies did recently beat the Ducks at the PAC-12 XC Championships, but like we explained in our team rankings, Oregon's victory over Washington at Nuttycombe feels like a better indication of what to expect from these teams in a larger field (like the regional and national meets).
It also didn't help Washington's national qualifying chances (or Gonzaga's) that Oregon was forced to wait until the last at-large bid to be selected to the national meet.
If Washington and Oregon switch places, then the Huskies get into the national meet and the Ducks miss out on a spot. However, if Washington and Oregon end up beating California Baptist and the Lancers are forced to finish 5th overall in the West region while Gonzaga settles for 6th place, then all four of those non-auto-lock teams get out of this region.
To put it simply, one minor deviation from our projections could result in a significantly different national qualifying outcome.
Projected Women's Regional Results
*TEAMS IN BOLD INDICATE AUTO-LOCKS*
GREAT LAKES
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2. Toledo Rockets
3. Michigan State Spartans
4. Wisconsin Badgers
5. Michigan Wolverines
6. Ohio State Buckeyes
7. Indiana Hoosiers
MID-ATLANTIC
1. Georgetown Hoyas
2. West Virginia Mountaineers
3. Penn State Nittany Lions
4. Princeton Tigers
MIDWEST
1. Oklahoma State Cowgirls
2. Northwestern Wildcats
3. Iowa State Cyclones
4. Bradley Braves
MOUNTAIN
1. New Mexico Lobos
2. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
3. BYU Cougars
4. Colorado Buffaloes
5. Utah Utes
6. Colorado State Rams
7. Utah Valley Wolverines
8. Utah State Aggies
9. Wyoming Cowgirls
10. Air Force Falcons
NORTHEAST
1. Syracuse Orange
2. Providence Friars
3. Harvard Crimson
4. Connecticut Huskies
SOUTH
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
2. Florida State Seminoles
3. Lipscomb Bison
4. Ole Miss Rebels
SOUTH CENTRAL
1. Arkansas Razorbacks
2. Texas Longhorns
3. LSU Tigers
SOUTHEAST
1. NC State Wolfpack
2. North Carolina Tar Heels
3. Virginia Cavaliers
4. Furman Paladins
5. Kentucky Wildcats
6. Duke Blue Devils
7. Liberty Flames
WEST
1. Stanford Cardinal
2. Oregon Ducks
3. California Baptist Lancers
4. Washington Huskies
5. Oregon State Beavers
6. Boise State Broncos
Projected Women's At-Large Qualifiers
At-Large Bid #1: BYU Cougars
The BYU women are the clear pick to take our first at-large bid to the national meet. The Cougars defeated our projected auto-lock teams a total of 13 times this fall, giving them the most Kolas points of any cross country program at this point in our selection process.
The BYU women give away no points to any remaining teams who are still waiting to be selected.
At-Large Bid #2: Colorado Buffaloes
The Colorado women are the next team selected to the national meet. They hold 12 Kolas points, the most of any other team still in consideration to advance to the NCAA XC Championships at this point in our selection process.
Colorado gives one point to Utah who beat the Buffaloes at the Nuttycombe Invite.
At-Large Bid #3: Utah Utes
The Utah women are the next team selected to the national meet. They hold 10 Kolas points, the most of any other team still in consideration to advance to the NCAA XC Championships at this point in our selection process.
The Utah women give away no points to any remaining teams who are still waiting to be selected.
At-Large Bid #4: Virginia Cavaliers
The next eligible team with the most Kolas points is Wisconsin who holds four points.
The Badgers are projected to finish 4th overall in their region while Michigan State is projected to finish 3rd in that same region. In this scenario, Michigan State would theoretically "push" the Wisconsin women into the national meet.
However, the NCAA wants to avoid "push" scenarios whenever possible. And since we can calculate that the Wisconsin women will eventually qualify for the national meet on their own, we're going to hold off on selecting them for now.
Instead, we are left with Michigan State, Virginia and Washington who all have three Kolas points.
Michigan State lost to Washington at Nuttycombe, meaning that the Spartans are out of this three-team tie-breaking scenario.
However, Washington and Virginia have never faced each other in a head-to-head battle. As a result, we need to compare all of the common opponents that the Huskies and Cavaliers shared this fall and then see who has the highest winning percentage against that group.
When comparing common opponents, we see that Virginia has a clear edge over Michigan State, holding a winning percentage of roughly 73.33% while the Spartans boasted a winning percentage of 54.54%.
As a result, the Virginia women get the tie-breaking win and advance to the national meet as our fourth at-large team. The Cavaliers give away no points to any remaining teams who are still waiting to be selected.
At-Large Bid #5: Michigan State Spartans
Wisconsin is still waiting to be selected for the national meet as they hold four Kolas points. Instead, we're left with yet another tie-breaker between Washington and Michigan State who each hold three points.
In the above section, Michigan State lost the head-to-head tie-breaker against Washington who beat them at Nuttycombe. Theoretically, that would give the Huskies our fifth at-large spot.
However, if Washington was selected, then they would have to push California Baptist into the national meet. And as we have stated before, the NCAA wants to avoid "push" scenarios whenever possible.
Luckily, we can see that the Washington women will eventually qualify for the national meet on their own without "pushing" another team in. For that reason, we will give Michigan State the national qualifying nod at our fifth at-large bid.
The Spartans give one point (each) to Wisconsin, Washington and Colorado State who beat Michigan State at Nuttycombe. We also see California Baptist getting one point after they beat the Spartan women at the Griak Invitational.
At-Large Bid #6: Wisconsin Badgers
With Michigan State now qualified for the national meet, we can now select the Wisconsin women who no longer have to "push" another team into the national meet. The Badgers have five Kolas points, more than any other team not yet qualified for the NCAA XC Championships.
The Badgers give one point (each) to California Baptist, Colorado State and Ohio State who beat the Wisconsin women at the Griak Invitational. They also give one point to Michigan who beat the Badgers at the BIG 10 XC Championships.
At-Large Bid #7: Colorado State Rams
At this point in our national qualifying selection process, we see that Colorado State and Michigan are both tied at four Kolas points. Washington still has five Kolas points, the most of any team not yet selected for the national meet.
However, as we mentioned earlier, we know that the Huskies will get in at a later time.
Since Michigan lost to Colorado State at Nuttycombe, we can now select the Rams to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. And after taking losses to Washington (at Nuttycombe) and California Baptist (at Griak Invitational), the CSU women give each of those teams one Kolas point each.
At-Large Bid #8: California Baptist Lancers
Following an at-large bid from Colorado State, the California Baptist women now have four Kolas points which is tied with Michigan for the most Kolas points among eligible teams capable of qualifying for the national meet.
Washington actually has five Kolas points, but they will eventually qualify for the national meet on their own.
California Baptist and Michigan have never faced each other in a head-to-head battle this season. As a result, we need to compare all of the common opponents that the Lancers and Wolverines shared this fall and then see who has the highest winning percentage against that group.
When comparing common opponents, we see that CBU has a clear edge over Michigan, holding a winning percentage of 80% while the Wolverines boast a winning percentage of just 42.30%.
As a result, the California Baptist women get the tie-breaking win and advance to the national meet as our eighth at-large team. The Lancers give away no points to any remaining teams who are still waiting to be selected.
At-Large Bid #9: Washington Huskies
With CBU now qualified for the national meet, we can now select the Washington women for our ninth at-large qualifying spot. This is because they are no longer in a position where their national qualification would push another team into the national meet.
The Huskies grant one Kolas point to Utah Valley who beat the Washington women at the Cowboy Jamboree.
At-Large Bid #10: Michigan Wolverines
At this point in our national qualifying selection process, you'll find that no team in the NCAA that is not yet qualified for the national meet has as many Kolas points as Michigan (four). For that reason, the Wolverines are selected to advance to the NCAA XC Championships.
Utah Valley defeated Michigan at the Cowboy Jamboree and at Nuttycombe. As a result, the UVU women earn two Kolas points.
At-Large Bid #11: Utah Valley Wolverines
The Utah Valley women have the most Kolas points (five) of the teams not yet qualified for the national meet. The Wolverines are therefore selected to advance to the NCAA XC Championships.
UVU grants one point to Utah State who beat the Wolverines at Paul Short.
At-Large Bid #12: Ohio State Buckeyes
The Ohio State women have the most Kolas points (three) of the teams not yet qualified for the national meet. The Buckeyes are therefore selected to advance to the NCAA XC Championships.
The Ohio State women give away no Kolas points to any remaining teams who are still waiting to be selected.
At-Large Bid #13: Furman Paladins
We are now at a point where Iowa State, Lipscomb, Furman and Utah State are all tied at one Kolas point each.
Illinois has two Kolas points, but they are not eligible to be selected for the national meet because there are at least two teams in their region who are expected to finish ahead of them in our projections and those two teams are not yet qualified.
Utah State lost to both Iowa State and Furman at Nuttycombe, meaning that the Aggies are out of national qualifying contention.
Iowa State lost to Furman at Nuttycombe, meaning that the Cyclones are out of national qualifying contention.
We are now left in a position where Lipscomb and Furman are the two remaining teams capable of qualifying for the national meet. However, neither team has faced each other this season.
As a result, we need to compare all of the common opponents that Lipscomb and Furman shared this fall and then see who has the highest winning percentage against that group.
When comparing common opponents, we see that Furman has a clear edge over Lipscomb, holding a perfect 100% win rate while the Bison boasted a winning percentage of 75%.
As a result, the Paladins get the tie-breaking win and earn the final qualifying spot to the national meet. The Furman women give away no points to any remaining teams who are still waiting to be selected.
First Team Out: Lipscomb Bison
Lipscomb, Iowa State and Utah State are all tied with one Kolas point each. There are other teams who either, a) have more Kolas points or, b) also have one Kolas point, but those teams are not eligible to be selected.
Utah State lost to Iowa State at Nuttycombe, meaning that the Aggies are out of contention for this "First Team Out" spot.
However, Iowa State and Lipscomb do not have a head-to-head matchup this fall, meaning that we need to compare all of the common opponents that Iowa State and Lipscomb shared this fall and then see who has the highest winning percentage against that group.
When comparing common opponents, you'll find that Lipscomb has a perfect 100% win rate against that group. Iowa State, however, is projected to lose to Northwestern at their regional meet, giving the Cyclones one loss and a 95.23% win rate.
As a result, the Lipscomb Bison are viewed as the "First Team Out" of our Kolas projections.
