2020 American Rivers XC Championship Preview

Ladies and gentlemen, we have D3 coverage! This season has certainly not been what we expected it to be back in February, but here we are. The American Rivers Conference has been the main highlight of D3 cross country this fall, giving some talented programs such as Wartburg and Loras the opportunity to throw down on the grass.

We’re glad to showcase what the conference has been up to and are looking forward to seeing how Saturday pans out. Let's jump into the preview...

Women's Preview

For the women, this team race will admittedly not be very close. Pending any major disaster, the Wartburg Knights are looking to be the easy favorites coming into this conference meet.

Their performances through four meets this season has seen them score anywhere between 15 to 20 points as a team. Truthfully, the only reason they even scored as high as 20 points was thanks to the likes of Loras’ Kassie Rosenbum (but more on her later).

Last year, we got to see an impressive freshman campaign from Aubrie Fisher who established herself as a top underclassmen to watch out for. She has only gotten better this season, beating top-ranked teammate Carina Collet three out of four times this fall. Her only loss came when she finished 3rd behind Collet and Rosenbum in their final tri-meet of the regular season.

Speaking of Collet, she’s still extremely consistent. She has placed 2nd in all four contests this season -- three behind Fisher and one behind Rosenbum, only 15 seconds back. If she has a good day on Saturday, right along with Fisher, I think these two have a shot at giving Rosenbum a run for her money.

Following their stud low-sticks, Wartburg’s pack is dangerous.

Moriah Morter, Trinity Borland, Natalie Paulson, Shaeyn Hostager, Janelle Baeskens, Lexi Brown and Anna Hertz have all been a part of the Knights' scoring lineup this fall. All of these women have been interchangeable in all of their meets and have sustained a very close time spread as well.

They might be farther back from Fisher and Collet, but they have only been beaten by Rosenbum, as well as Nebraska Wesleyan's Leah Treffer and Camryn Larsen, this season.

If the Wartburg pack is feeling good, it wouldn’t shock me to see them take at least spots 4-5-6 to round out their scoring (with more women likely following right behind them). Depending on how things shake out at the front of this race, the Knights could end up posting another low score on Saturday.

For everyone else not attending Wartburg (or named Kassie Rosenbum), there looks to be a pretty solid team battle for 2nd.

Nebraska Wesleyan has been the only team to break up Wartburg’s pack so far this season as mentioned above with Treffer and Larsen. The Prairie Wolves have a strong top four between Camryn Larsen, Gabby Thomas, Leah Treffer and Madi Bahe. That group has been very interchangeable throughout this season which is nice, but they have been lacking a reliable fifth scorer.

If they can minimize their top-five time spread and put their top-four in better positions than the Luther women, then they’ll be in good shape to contend for that 2nd place spot.

Speaking of Luther, they have shown some great improvement over the course of this season. They’ve been able to bring down their top-five time spread this season, posting a gap of 43 seconds in their final regular season meet.

They’re similar to Nebraska Wesleyan in that they don’t have a true low-stick, but their pack will come in handy this Saturday. Amelia Hornseth, Heather Hostinger and Lauren Berg have looked strong this season, forming a solid top three. If they can infiltrate Wartburg’s pack, it is very possible that they could place 2nd overall.

Finally, let’s talk about Rosenbum of Loras. Through three of four meets this fall, here are her margins of victory over the 2nd place finisher:

● Dual vs Central College (5k): 1:56

● Tri vs Simpson (Iowa) and Dubuque (6k): 3:10

● Tri vs Luther and Nebraska Wesleyan (6k): 2:05

Needless to say, she did not have much competition this year until she finally toed the line against a Wartburg team that featured Fisher and Collet. But even then, Rosenbum still won by 15 seconds.

Not only that, but Rosenbum even ran a wildly impressive 5k time of 16:42 on the roads, with some good competition ahead of her (16:07 got the win for the women). As she caps off an incredible season, it would be a surprise if she didn't win on Saturday.

Quick Prediction

There isn't much doubt in my mind. The Wartburg Knights will take home the title in dominating fashion with Luther placing 2nd overall. However, Rosenbum is still looking like the winner on the individual side.

Men's Preview

On the men’s side, the team battle fares pretty similarly compared to the women. In other words, Wartburg is very good. Looking at their point totals from the regular season, they’ve been pretty much unstoppable.

● John Kurtt Tri: 15 points

● Kohawk Quad: 15 points

● Dan Huston Tri: 17 points

● Wartburg Tri: 18 points

It helps to be this dominant as a team and also to have a quality low-stick in Joe Freiburger. He hasn’t lost to anyone this season, taking home four wins this fall. He was certainly shaping up to be one of the best runners in D3 coming into this year, so this doesn’t come as much of a surprise.

But it's not just Freiburger who is responsible for all of this team success. He has had some quality scoring help behind him in Christopher Collet (brother of Carina Collet) and Dalton Martin who have been quite good this year. With the exception of Collet in one race, these two have very solidly been Wartburg’s second and third scorers, rounding out what has been an excellent trio.

The upside of these two is that they have been finishing only 15 to 20 seconds behind Freiburger in most races. That should be a big help come Saturday if they can continue that trend. Returners Morgan Shirley-Faribairn, Matthew Schnider, Alec Ille, Liam Conroy and Ali Ali have been solid varsity contributors for the Knights at the backend of their scoring lineup and give this team plenty of depth.

Let's talk about Loras. They're a team that has been a strong contender throughout this season, featuring a unique lineup compared to others. What do I mean by that? Well, they are very young.

Behind veteran leader Luke Guttormson, there have been three freshmen taking on the bulk of the scoring duties for this team. Along with Guttormson, freshman Evan Jamrozy has been a great second scorer who has given this team a solid 1-2 punch. These two were the only ones to truly break up Wartburg’s pack earlier this season, placing 4th and 6th against the Knights two weeks ago.

They are big contenders to challenge for top-five spots individually on Saturday, but will have to battle the Wartburg contingent of Freiburger, Collet and Martin as well as a few others.

Loras freshman Ryan Harvey can also be a game-changer for the Duhawks. He has been able to stick right around Jamrozy for most of his races and if he does so again on Saturday, then he can be huge in terms of scoring.

Rounding out the Loras freshmen trio is Will Yasdick who has been in a pretty good spot behind that top three, effectively working with juniors Will Whalen and Wyatt Kelly during the season.

Overall, the Duhawks have been able to keep their time spread around 60 seconds between their top five runners. Decreasing that time gap down will at least help them get closer to Wartburg.

We then come to Luther, another young team that can challenge for the runner-up spot on Saturday. Sophomore Ian Kelly is yet another guy who will be near the front of this race. Who knows how high he could go? He took down Guttormson and Jamrozy earlier this season, but also lost to three Simpson runners.

Behind Kelly have been freshmen Conor Gregg Escalante and Adam Koller who have been respectable middle-lineup contributors in the Norse varsity lineup.

An enigma of this varsity team is junior Tom Altier. He’s been a solid second scorer behind Kelly on one occasion this year, but he hasn't displayed a performance that matches his runner-up finish from last year's conference meet.

If he can replicate that sort of performance, then Luther could get dangerously close to Loras. It’s hard to predict whether we’ll see that low-stick performance happen again, but if so, then the Luther men could be a team to watch.

Finishing 6th at the conference meet last year was Simpson (Iowa), a team that is looking much stronger than they were in 2019. They came within a single point of beating Loras and ended up beating Luther by five points in separate meets earlier this season. They could very realistically challenge for a 2nd or 3rd place team finish on Saturday.

Spencer Moon has only lost to Wartburg runners this year, a huge upside for his value as a low-stick in this field. In fact, he wasn’t all that far behind them either, finishing only 15 seconds or so behind Wartburg's Martin and Collet. He’s yet another contender for a top-five individual finish on Saturday.

Quick Prediction

Akin to the women, Wartburg will take home the team title in this one. Freiburger runs away with the individual title. Guttormson and Jamrozy of Loras, along with Moon of Simpson, will challenge up front, making it a tough team battle for 2nd place. In the end, I'll give the runner-up spot to Loras.