2019 XC Top 25 Teams (Men): #1 Stanford Cardinal

Let’s address the elephant in the room.

It was very difficult to pick someone other than NAU for the #1 spot. The three-time reigning champions look to have another elite team as mentioned in the previous article, and they won't be shying away from NCAA gold yet again.

To pick against NAU, there needed to be a team that had an even higher ceiling then the Lumberjacks. In fact, the team needed to be even better than BYU and Portland were when they finished 2nd to NAU over the last two years.

That criteria left us with Stanford.

But how is it that a team who is losing Grant Fisher is now the title favorite? If you think about it too hard, it will drive you mildly insane. Even so, the Cardinal now have the most potent top four of anyone in the country (yes, even without Fisher) and that is why they are The Stride Report's #1 team in the country.

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Replacing seniors Tai Dinger and Grant Fisher in the lineup will be 2019 steeplechase champion Steven Fahy and one of this past spring’s breakout stars, Thomas Ratcliffe. These two - along with Alex Ostberg and Alek Parsons - gives Stanford four top 30 runners in the country. No one else in the NCAA can boast the same level of raw firepower that the Cardinal quartet have (side note: Do we need to start thinking about a nickname for these four?).

With that said, there are a few legitimate concerns. Thomas Ratcliffe - who is coming off of a massive spring season where he ran 13:32 and finished 3rd in the 5k during outdoors - hasn’t run a cross country race since 2016 due to numerous injuries. Likewise, Fahy has a sixth year of eligibility after suffering multiple injuries of his own, including one that kept him sidelined for most of last fall.

Fahy, when on the cross course, has been dynamite. In 2016 he was 59th at Nationals and in 2017 he was an All-American crossing the line in 17th place. Adding him back into this lineup, along with a completely healthy Thomas Ratcliffe, makes this team overwhelmingly strong.

Then we have Alex Ostberg who is an elite runner in his own right. If everything goes his way this fall, and he continues to progress into the team's next Grant Fisher, he has an outside chance at winning the individual national title in 2019.

As for Alek Parsons, he may be one of the most underappreciated distance runners in the country after finishing 11th in the Pre-Nats Cardinal race, 4th at the 2018 PAC-12 Championships, and 30th at the NCAA Championships.

So in case you haven't realized it yet, the top four men on this squad are good...scary good.

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To shake the rust off, the Cardinal opened up their 2018 cross country season at the Stanford Invitational where they put together a dominant performance, easily beating a Robert Brandt-less UCLA team. Of course, this was only a tune-up for the larger challenges that lied ahead.

After a nice start to their season, Stanford was off to Madison, Wisconsin to race against the best in the country in the Cardinal section of Pre-Nationals. To say it was a perfect race might be laying it on a little thick, but the team ran very well. Fisher held off the NAU duo of Day and Baxter to get the overall individual win while Ostberg and Parsons finished 8th and 11th, respectively. Senior Tai Dinger also put in an excellent performance, crossing the line in 23rd place while Michael Vernau and freshmen D.J. Principe put together solid 42nd and 51st place finishes of their own.

Admittedly, it was a little concerning to see a relatively large gap between the #4 and #5 runners, but all-in-all, it wasn’t a huge concern. The team would end up finishing 2nd to NAU while also finishing a solid 26 points ahead of 3rd place Colorado. If Stanford could continue finishing right behind the Lumberjacks, then the rest of the season would turn out very, very well.

With no NAU at the PAC-12 Championships, the Cardinal beat a surging Washington team to win the conference title. Stanford’s top three sealed the deal as Fisher picked up his second consecutive win while Ostberg and Parsons were right behind him in 3rd and 4th place. Dinger and Principe finished together in 24th and 25th whereas Meika Beaudoin-Rousseau was 33rd. Despite the backend gaps, the team looked to be in peak form as they headed to the West Regional Championships.

After winning the PAC-12 Championships and running well at Pre-Nationals, Stanford entered their regional meet with a cooler full of Kolas points. As long as they didn’t finish worse than 7th or 8th, they were headed to Nationals. With this in mind, Coach Miltenberg had his men run conservatively. Ostberg and Fisher crossed the line together to finish 15th and 16th while Parsons was right behind them in 23rd. Principe finished in 36th place while Vernau was 47th. While it wasn’t a thrilling performance, it was enough to earn a 4th place finish and secure a qualification to Nationals.

At the National Championships, Stanford’s top three went out on a mission. Fisher went for the win and came up just short, finishing behind Morgan McDonald for 2nd place overall. Meanwhile, Ostberg and Parsons both nailed-down top 30 finishes giving Stanford a top three that was able to contend with Northern Arizona and BYU. Unfortunately, the gap between Parsons and the Cardinal's bottom two scorers, Principe and Dinger, was much too large. Principe ran respectably in his first NCAA Championship to finish 77th overall, but Dinger was only able to earn a 125th place finish. Scoring over 150 points between those two is what ultimately doomed Stanford to a 5th place finish as a team, just one spot off the podium.

Overall, it was a very impressive season for both Fisher and the Cardinal team. They had some of the best firepower in the nation and a slew of respectable talent who at least kept the team afloat for most of the 2018 season. Still, it was clear that they wanted more than just a 5th place finish...

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The Stanford men didn't add any superstar transfers to their team this fall, but the return of two elite-caliber scorers (Fahy and Ratcliffe) back into their lineup makes this team extremely interesting. By adding them back into the mix, Stanford shouldn't have to worry about gaps between their third and fourth scorers.

Instead, the concern in 2019 will be how far back their fifth runner is.

Luckily, for new coach Ricardo Santos, he will have plenty of options.

First, there is redshirt sophomore D.J. Principe who ran well at Nationals last year to cap off a very solid season. The larger his improvement is from his 77th place finish from last year's national meet, the larger Stanford's chances of a national title grow in 2019. He will be an integral part of this team over the next months, far more than some fans may realize.

Another runner featured heavily in last year’s lineup was Michael Vernau. While he struggled at Nationals last year finishing 137th, he is coming off of an impressive pair of track seasons. The rising junior ran PR's of 8:07, 14:02, and 29:06 which indicates that he is ready to contribute in a far more substantial way this year.

However, if you asked me who I would expect the breakout stars on this team were going to be, I would say Clayton Mendez and Connor Lane.

As a freshman, Mendez ran 8:04 and 13:57 in his first track seasons for the Cardinal this past winter and spring. He was one of the top recruits in the country last year and certainly delivered on any and all expectations on the indoor and outdoor oval. If he continues to develop at the same rate that we saw past spring, then he will be a major contributor on this squad.

However, the name that really catches my attention is Connor Lane. After missing the 2018 cross country, Lane went to track and quietly established himself as one of the best 5000 meters runners in the country by running a personal best of 13:42.

No, that's not a typo.

A guy who ran 13:42 nearly four months ago may only be Stanford's #5 runner this fall.

Outside of that group we have Callum Bolger and Meika Beaudoin-Rousseau, two young talents who outstanding room for growth. Their championship experience should make them extremely valuable pieces as the Cardinal look to bolster their depth.

On top of all of those names, Stanford has a recruiting class chock-full of high school stars. The class is full of national champions and sub-9 two milers. In order to not short change any of them, read here about all of them. Even with the loaded roster that Stanford has, there is a chance that one of these precocious youngsters will be able to win a spot on the team and run in their first-ever NCAA Cross Country Championships.

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For Stanford to live up to this lofty ranking, the season doesn’t have to be perfect, but they will need success in two main areas. The first key is obvious: health. The Cardinal need their top four to stay healthy, especially the two members who have struggled with injuries in the past. So, like any team, they will rely on their top guys staying at 100%.

Secondly, they need at least one, two, or ideally three runners who take a big step forward this year. With the amount of talent on their roster, it is absurd to think that they wouldn't be able to find another Alek Parsons in this group.

Neither of these team aspects are givens, but they are both entirely realistic expectations.

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Grant Fisher may be gone, but Stanford’s chances of a national title did not leave with him.

With a group of experienced All-Americans and young up-and-coming talent, Stanford has the best team in the country (although I'm sure we'll get comments telling us otherwise). After years of Lumberjack dominance, the Cardinal can finally be the program to break Northern Arizona’s deadlock on NCAA gold.

Get your popcorn ready. It's show time.