TSR Collaboration
Sep 25, 20205 min
Written by Hannah Thorn, Brett Haffner and Kevin Fischer
Analysis involving eligibility is based off of data from TFRRS.
Throughout the 2019 cross country season, Bates was constantly getting closer to being among the nation’s most elite teams. In September, they hosted the Bates Super Shootout where they lost to conference rivals Tufts by 97 points.
However, they began to find a groove as the season went on. At the Oberlin Interregional Rumble, they finished 2nd against some national-caliber competition, then went on to finish a solid 3rd at the NESCAC Championships and 4th at the New England Regional Championships where they finished 20 points out from the Jumbos -- a 77 point improvement from their previous outing.
The Bobcats return six of their seven finishers from last year's team which finished 14th at the NCAA Championships, led by rising sophomore Jill Richardson. They do lose their second runner Olivia LaMarche, but they seem to have the depth to avoid being affected too much by that departure.
Bates had a very young team last year, as their top seven in 2019 included three freshmen and a sophomore, so it is likely that we would have seen several big improvements upon their individual performances.
One thing Bates lacks compared to some of the other top 10 teams is a star low-stick, but if Richardson (who finished 56th at NCAA's in 2019), takes a step forward in her fitness, then she can potentially fill that role.
The Bobcats would have been an exciting team to watch in a hypothetically unaltered 2020 cross country season.
The first thing that comes to mind with Dickinson is Isabel Cardi, and rightfully so. Formerly of Vermont University, Cardi has done some great things in her time at Dickinson, most notably a 3rd place finish at the NCAA XC Championships in 2019.
However, the team around Cardi deserves a lot of credit as well.
After finishing as runner-ups to the eventual national champions Johns Hopkins at three consecutive meets (Rowan Interregional Rumble, Centennial Conference Championships, Mideast Regional Championships), the Red Devils recorded a solid 9th place performance in Louisville.
The Red Devils return five of their top seven from last year's team, but their two losses are Sarah House and Tessa Cassidy -- their second and third scorers from last fall.
Despite these losses, Dickinson has the necessary talent to remain as a fairly competitive team in their region (and on the national stage). In fact, in addition to the five women returning from last year, Elizabeth Cassell -- who did not compete in Louisville, but has displayed impressive strength on the oval (18:36 5k, 39:01 10k) -- could have played a big role for this team in 2020. Her return to this lineup could have filled a major gap in Dickinson's lineup and made this team no less competitive than they were in 2019.
And, of course, having a low-stick as reliable as Isabel Cardi goes a long way.
In a normal season, the Dickinson women would be among the better teams in the NCAA.
In 2019, MIT had arguably the best 1-2 punch in the country with Izzi Gengaro and Katie Collins. The duo finished 10th and 15th individually at the NCAA Championships, leading their team to a 7th place finish.
While this placement is very respectable, it is possible that the Engineers felt that they were capable of a higher finish considering that they beat 4th place Williams in the regular season at the Connecticut College Invitational.
Gengaro and Collins both return in 2020, and it is difficult to overstate their importance to this team. However, questions regarding depth prevented us from giving the Engineers a higher ranking. Their third, fifth and seventh runners from the 2019 national meet have graduated and new names will have to arise to replicate their team performance from last year.
Einat Gavish, who finished 111th at Nationals last fall, would have played a very important role for this team in 2020. She has been consistently solid throughout her college career, but if her performances were to take a step forward, it would make up for the loss of Katie Bacher.
2:12 800 meter runner Katie Williams and rising sophomore Kirsi Rajagopal would have also stepped into larger varsity roles this fall.
It would have been interesting to see how MIT performed throughout the 2020 season had everything gone forward unaltered. Yet, despite the season suspension, we can still recognize the fact that this team would have been plenty competitive this fall.
The women from U. of Chicago are coming off of a stellar year. They cruised through the 2019 regular season with great finishes at the Wheaton Gil Dodds Invitational and the KollegeTown Invitational.
Chicago translated that success to postseason, placing 2nd at both the UAA Championships and at the Midwest regional meet, losing only to Wash. U. in both instances. However, the Maroons did not let that bother them as they went down to Louisville and had the best race of their season, running well enough to capture the last podium spot and finish 4th overall.
The Maroons lose their two strong front-runners in Claire Brockway and Maggie Boudreau this year as they have run out of eligibility, so the rest of the team will need to step up if they hope to make another run at the podium (no pun intended).
A positive sign for the Maroons is that their top finisher from Nationals last year, Sophie Elgamal, is set to return. The senior finished 16th last year to earn her third All-American honor. At the very least, you know that she'll be able to deliver low points on the national stage when it matters the most.
Having Elgamal back is great for U. of Chicago. However, what is not-so-great for Chicago is that there was (on average) a 30 second gap between their top three of Elgamal, Brockway and Boudreau and the rest of their top seven last fall.
The rest of the returning varsity runners would have likely been seniors Zoe Smith and Abigail Shoemaker, juniors Sofia Natividad and Kaitlyn Van Baalen and sophomores Leah Ulrich and Caitlin Jorgensen.
If this were a normal season, those ladies would have needed to move closer to Elgamal if the Maroons had hoped to have a chance at another team trophy. Luckily for them, they likely had enough scoring options and depth to make that a possibility.
Tufts had an impressive fall campaign in 2019 despite having a very young team. They made their first big statement at the Purple Valley Invite, taking the win over MIT and Williams, the hosts of the meet.
While the Ephs and Engineers would have their revenge three weeks later at the Connecticut College Invitationals, Tufts proved to be a very competitive team in the postseason, finishing 2nd at the very competitive NESCAC Championships and 3rd at the New England Regional Championships. They concluded their season with an 8th place finish in Louisville.
However, what was more impressive than that national meet finish was their youth: The team they took to Nationals consisted of four freshmen, two sophomores and only one senior according to TFRRS. While they only graduate one runner, they also lose All-American Sabrina Gornisciewicz to the transfer portal, as she will see out her eligibility at Northwestern University.
It’s hard to understate the affect Gornisiewicz’s departure will have on the Jumbos as she served as a second low-stick for this team behind Danielle Page. With her on the roster, we would have likely had Tufts in our top five.
Regardless, their underclassmen should generally improve on their individual performances, and it is probable that we would have seen an improvement in their team placement at the Big Dance if a normal cross country season had occurred.