Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Aug 26, 20239 min
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
In a year filled with numerous headlines and developing stories, few teams were more entertaining than the Oregon women, specifically this summer.
After a wildly successful first year with Coach Shalane Flanagan, the Ducks dominated the middle distances on the track, thrived in recruited and later landed some of the biggest names that the transfer portal had to offer.
Now, as we enter the fall of 2023, the expectations for the Oregon women are fairly high. The historically elite reputation that this program is seemingly becoming increasingly more present.
And if everything comes together for this team like we think it could, then you're looking at a juggernaut squad with potentially an even higher ceiling for the 2024 cross country season.
Of course, before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let's rewind and chat about what this team did throughout last fall where they positioned themselves for an even stronger 2023 cross country campaign.
Much like the men's side of their program, expectations for the Oregon women weren't super high going into last fall.
Yes, the Ducks were still listed in our 2022 preseason rankings, but their depth appeared to be limited and their low-stick options didn't seem to be nearly as potent as they had been in year's past.
After a few rust-busters, including one at the Bill Dellinger Invite, the Ducks toed the line for the Nuttycombe Invite, their first and only major regular season test of the fall months. And once they were there, they made a statement.
Izzy Thornton-Bott led her team with a strong 24th place low-stick finish. Ironically, that was the same spot where Aaron Bienenfeld, Oregon's top male scorer, also finished that day. However, the more pleasant surprise was seeing veteran Emilie Girard and sophomore Maddy Elmore place 53rd and 59th, respectively.
With three women finishing in the top-60, one of which was a low-stick, the Ducks were in an excellent position through 60% of their scoring group. However, with a gap forming between them and the backend duo of Malia Pivec (113th) and Harper McClain (114th), the Oregon women fell out of the top-10 and took home an 11th place finish.
Regardless of the lineup gap, the Eugene-based women had to be happy. They had great upfront scoring and their depth was still fairly solid, even if their final scorers placed outside of the top-100. Overall, their final team result was better than what we were expecting.
The PAC-12 XC Championships would yield few surprises. Instead, the conference meet would only validate what we already knew about the Ducks from the Nuttycombe Invite.
Thornton-Bott (4th) was fantastic yet again while McClain (11th) had a great race, making a clear improvement on her prior result. With Girard placing 14th, Oregon was yet again in a great spot. However, with the team's final two scorers placing 26th (Klaudia Kazimierska) and 31st (Pivec), the Ducks' team score could only go so far.
In the end, Oregon settled for a still-strong 3rd place finish. While they didn't defeat Colorado or Utah, they were able to take down Stanford, Washington and Oregon State. As far as maintaining momentum was concerned, this was still a good result, especially with Elmore not having her best day.
After getting past the West Regional XC Championships, the Oregon women toed the line in Stillwater, Oklahoma for the national meet. There, they would look to cement themselves as a nationally competitive force on the grass yet again.
And for the most part, they delivered on those expectations.
Thornton-Bott's 36th place All-American was unsurprising, but it was still incredibly valuable. Elmore, meanwhile, had a great race (arguably the best of her career at the time) with a 72nd place finish while McClain continued to improve, placing 89th overall.
Backend gaps would still prove to be a challenge for Oregon, but a 132nd place finish from Pivec was hardly a poor result while Kazimierska closed out the scoring in 148th place. In the end, the Ducks placed 14th overall in the final standings, a solid end to what could only be viewed as a legitimately successful season.
Gosh, there is so much that we could talk about when it comes to this team in 2023. There are so many moving parts, but it should all lead to an even stronger fall campaign for the Ducks compared to last year.
Yes, the Oregon women lose both Emilie Girard and Malia Pivec, two key veterans who offered great scoring value for this team throughout last fall. Girard was the team's second or third scorer at both Nuttycombe and the PAC-12 XC Championships while Pivec often closed out her team's top-five fast enough.
On paper, those would be two challenging gaps to fill, especially the loss of Girard. However, it's important to note that the Ducks actually ran quite well even without Girard who was absent for their regional and national meets.
As far as Oregon's national meet lineup is concerned, Pivec is the only major loss. The Ducks also lost Nicole Louw, although she was someone who only occasionally made the team's top-seven last fall.
Generally speaking, the core runners who made an impact on this team are expected to come back. And between a few transfers (some of which are eligibile for this fall, some of which are not) as well as an elite recruiting class, the Ducks should not only be better in 2023, but they should also be far more exciting.
Returning to her low-stick role this fall is Izzy Thornton-Bott, the Aussie distance star who was great during the fall, but even better in the winter and spring months.
Despite being viewed as more of a middle distance runner, recently running 4:08 for 1500 meters and finishing runner-up over that distance at the outdoor national meet, Thornton-Bott has also held her own on the grass quite well.
This Oregon veteran isn't as potent of a lead scorer as a few others, but that largely doesn't matter. The scoring differential between Thornton-Bott and other lead low-sticks on top teams isn't crazy large. As long as this Aussie Duck is as reliable as she was last fall, then that's all that Oregon needs!
There truthfully isn't much more to say about Thornton-Bott. That, however, isn't necessarily a bad thing. We're very big fans of her and we would even admit that she was (possibly) robbed of a couple of spots in our preseason individual rankings back in July.
She currently sits at TSR #34.
However, unlike last fall, Thornton-Bott may not be the only All-American-caliber low-stick on Oregon's roster in 2023. That's because the Ducks brought in a slew of new transfers, two of which were also ranked inside of our top-50 preseason individual rankings earlier this summer.
Mia Barnett, who is coming over from UCLA, is now a member of the Ducks. However, The Stride Report has been told that it's highly unlikely that she will be racing for the Oregon women this fall due to NCAA transfer rules. Barnett is currently ranked at TSR #50 in our preseason individual rankings.
We would also anticipate that to be the case for another UCLA transfer, Sam McDonnell.
But the story is a bit different for Oregon's other star transfer, Victoria Patterson.
Patterson is currently ranked at TSR #45 in our preseason individual rankings. She was great in the postseason last fall, placing 41st on the national stage, and she carried that momentum to the track. On the oval, she ran times of 9:02 (3k), 15:55 (5k) and 9:51 (steeple), qualifying for the 2023 outdoor national meet in the latter event.
Despite being a multi-time transfer (starting her collegiate career at Duke and later venturing to Columbia), The Stride Report has recently been informed that there is optimism surrounding Patterson's potential to compete this fall. And if that's the case, then the Oregon women are going to unquestionably be better than they were in 2022.
Patterson is someone who I am personally very high on. She clearly has a ton of raw talent, has refined her fitness over the past year, was fairly consistent and she usually had her best races on important stages.
Pairing her with Thornton-Bott would theoretically give Oregon one of the better 1-2 punches in the NCAA later this fall.
While the firepower of this lineup could be drastically improved in the coming months, it's the supporting cast of this team that could end up making even greater progress, relatively speaking.
We are very high on the potential of Maddy Elmore and Harper McClain this fall. Those two women are no longer inexperienced underclassmen. Instead, they are seasoned distance talents who have made excellent improvements over the last year.
Elmore not only placed 59th at Nuttycombe and 72nd at the national meet, but she also ran a jaw-dropping 1500 meter PR of 4:08 this past spring. And while we don't know how that time will translate to the grass, it seems plenty fair to say that this Oregon runner has improved her fitness since the fall of 2022.
And if that's the case, then you may be looking at Oregon having a third lead scorer.
McClain, meanwhile, was sneaky-great on the grass last fall. An 11th place finish at the PAC-12 XC Championships and an 89th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships were significant performances which showcased an encouraging trend of development.
New personal bests of 33:42 (10k) and 10:02 (steeple) from this past spring were very solid, but it feels like McClain could still stand to make some improvements. That's a good thing considering how valuable she's already been.
However, even if she makes zero improvements and only replicates her results from last fall, then that's totally fine. In that scenario, she could end up being one of the best fourth scorers in the entire NCAA.
Through four scorers, the Oregon women don't just look strong, they look scary strong. The quartet of Thorton-Bott, Patterson, Elmore and McClain have all proven (to varying degrees) that they can be reliable, nationally competitive scoring options on the grass.
But it's the rest of this roster that will provide the Ducks with depth and exciting upside.
Coach Shalane Flanagan went to work on the recruiting scene over the last year, adding incoming rookies such as Lily Cridge, Kate Peters, Allura Markow, Katie Clute and Ella Thorsett to their 2023 roster.
Cridge has run 16:22 for 5000 meters (on the grass) and finished runner-up at the 2021 Garmin RunningLane XC National Championships. She has also run 10:03 for 3200 meters. Meanwhile, Peters was 6th at the 2021 Eastbay XC National Championships and 9th at 2019 NXN Championships. She has run 16:40 for 5000 meters (on the grass) and has also run 9:51 for two miles.
At their best, the Cridge-Peters duo is lethal. Admittedly, availability is a major question mark for both of these women as neither rising rookie has raced in 2023 (per MileSplit). But if just one of these true freshmen enters Eugene, Oregon firing on all cylinders, then I wouldn't feel totally comfortable about Colorado being the overwhelming favorite for the PAC-12 title.
As for the rest of these freshmen, Markow has run 4:44 (mile), Clute has run 9:39 (3k) and Thorsett has run 17:27 for 5000 meters (on the grass). We would expect this trio to be redshirted this fall, although it's possible that Clute makes an appearance inside of Oregon's lineup later this year if everything goes perfectly.
And what about Dalia Frias? She technically wasn't on UCLA's roster this past spring, so could she actually be eligible to race this fall? We think it's possible. While Frias isn't expected to be a massive impact scorer in 2023, her rookie campaign says she could emerge as a scorer. She was, after all, the 67th place finisher at Nuttycombe last fall.
Between Melissa Berry (who has run 16:16 for 5000 meters), Portland State transfer Tatum Miller (who has run 10:14 in the steeplechase), Klaudia Kazmierska (who ran 4:08 for 1500 meters this past spring) and Annika Thompson (who has run 33:51 for 10,000 meters) the depth on this team is plenty strong.
The Oregon women should have no problems finding reinforcements for the second-half of their lineup in 2023. However, trying to determine how strong that backend group is actually going to be is the bigger challenge.
On paper, Oregon has everything. They have (potentially) multiple low-sticks, fantastic middle lineup scorers, tons of depth, youth-based upside and all of the potential in the world to be better than last year.
Could their 2023 cross country ceiling threaten for a top-five spot in our rankings?
Admittedly, there is minor uncertainty about the official racing status of Patterson this fall. We also don't know how certain women will translate their track success to the grass. A couple of women were a little inconsistent in 2022 and some of these ladies are still inexperienced.
However, those are all small concerns. In the grand scheme of things, the positives far outweigh the cons. What Coach Shalane Flanagan has done with this team is beyond phenomenal and it's scary to think about how much better this team could be beyond 2023.
We may be ranking the Ducks at TSR #8 going into this fall, but it wouldn't surprise us at all if they ended up being ranked at an even better spot come November.