TSR Collaboration
Feb 28, 202316 min
Written by Garrett Zatlin & Gavin Struve
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Click here to see our Just Missed and Honorable Mention names.
Listed eligibility takes redshirts and Covid-related extensions into consideration.
TFRRS is used as a general guide when determining eligibility.
Was not ranked in our last update.
First number indicates how much the athlete has moved in the rankings.
The second number indicates where the athlete was ranked in our last update.
Never in my life did I think that we would rank a 3:53 miler at TSR #25.
And yet, here we are.
Aidan Ryan, a graduate transfer from Williams, has had a very solid indoor track season with the Huskies. Prior to this weekend, he had run 3:59 (mile), 7:53 (3k) and 13:41 (5k). However, those marks weren't going to get the newest Washington distance talent anywhere close to our rankings.
Of course, a massive, resume-altering 3:53 mile PR at Boston University this past weekend changes things quite a bit.
Ryan has gone from being a competitive and respectable D1 collegiate distance runner to one of the fastest milers in the nation and in NCAA history. A 3:53 mile mark is so absurdly fast and it forces us to put him in our top-25 rankings.
At the same time, that PR came out of absolutely nowhere. There hasn't been anything else on Ryan's resume to suggest that he was going to run that fast this winter. We also have no idea how that kind of mark will translate to a tactical setting on a championship stage (which will have multiple rounds).
Yes, Ryan's mile time is one of the better performances we've ever seen at that distance. But in terms of his collective season, we'll need to see how he fares at the indoor national meet before we can give him a bump up in our rankings.
The men's 800 meter final at the SEC Indoor Championships was an odd race.
There was a lot of jostling early-on, there were a handful of lead changes, the pace was surprisingly slow and the field was void of national title favorite, Navasky Anderson.
Florida sophomore Sam Austin made a hard move with 200 meters to get out of trouble and put himself in a position for the win. That move, however, isn't a shocker. Over the last year, Austin has proven to be someone who will start his kick closer to 200 meters out rather than 100 meters out.
That decision almost paid off, but Georgia rookie Will Sumner turned out to be the smarter runner, putting in his final move at the perfect time for the win.
Austin is fairly young and still has some tactics to improve upon. But that 800 meter final at the SEC Indoor Championships was somewhat unconventional. And in terms of raw fitness, this Gator middle distance talent is just as good as (almost) anyone else that he'll face on the national stage.
After opening up his season with a solid 13:34 (5k) effort in December and then later running a converted 7:43 (3k) mark, we expected Duncan Hamilton to continue building momentum in the second-half of the season.
But then the Montana State star was upset in the mile by Gonzaga's Wil Smith at sea level. He also wasn't able to improve upon his aforementioned 3k conversion in Seattle (although he did come close by running 7:44).
Luckily, Hamilton was able to regain momentum at the perfect time. On his home track, the Bobcat veteran dropped an insane mile conversion of 3:52.99 which puts him at NCAA #7 on the national leaderboard for the event.
A pair of BIG Sky victories in the mile and DMR this past weekend, as well as a 4th place finish over 3000 meters, isn't too surprising. And although we're left with just as many questions about Hamilton's All-American chances as when we entered this season, we can also say with certainty that Hamilton is still near/at the peak of his all-time fitness.
Coming into this weekend, we viewed Thomas Vanoppen as one of the best all-around milers in the NCAA. He was fresh off of running 3:54 in the mile at Boston University and had developed a history of brilliant tactical execution over the last year.
However, Saturday was one of the rare instances where the Wake Forest runner didn't execute his race plan like we thought he could have / should have. When Virginia's Nathan Mountain tried to gap the field by opening up a big early lead, it was Vanoppen who chased after him.
That approach, as a result, left the Demon Deacon star just a bit too gassed on the final curve. And with 100 meters to go, North Carolina's Jesse Hunt took full advantage by putting in a late kick and taking home the win.
In reality, this was likely a good learning moment for Vanoppen to have prior to the indoor national meet. Sure, this is one of the few instances where he's proven to be human, but at least this is one more scenario that he's seen going into the mile prelims.
For the last few seasons (maybe even the last couple of years), Tarees Rhoden has been a very solid, consistent and competitive 800 meter talent. The Clemson ace had run 1:47 twice prior to this weekend and actually won the ACC indoor title over 800 meters last winter.
And in 2023, Rhoden was not only able to defend his title, but he also ran a big personal best of 1:46 over the half-mile distance, this time under 1:47.
In a fantastic display of teamwork, Rhoden went straight to the front of the race and called for teammate Aman Thornton to flank him on the outside of lane one. And for the entirety of the race, the Tiger duo was able to block off any advancements from their conference rivals.
This, in turn, gave Rhoden a clear path to the victory.
Rhoden has proven that he can win big races while utilizing the greatest aspects of his middle distance speed and strength. His progression this season, going from 1:51 to 1:48 to 1:47 to 1:46, also suggests that he's peaking at the right time.
But this Clemson star won't have Thornton to work with him at the national meet. Rhoden has also never contested an individual event on the national stage.
And that's what makes this rising half-mile standout such a major x-factor as we look towards the NCAA Indoor Championships a week and a half from now.
No one is going to look at Nico Young's 5k/3k double at the BIG Sky Indoor Championships and say that he ran poorly. But truthfully, this NAU superstar just doesn't seem to have his edge this season.
Yes, he ran an incredible time of 13:15 for 5000 meters at Boston University in December, but he wasn't really in the mix to win that race towards the end. After an extended hiatus, Young underwhelmed at the Millrose Games, running 7:51 (3k). He later ran a 4:08 mile at altitude which converted to 3:59...but Young also ran a converted 3:54 mile mark last winter.
And now, this past weekend, Young finished behind teammate Drew Bosley in both of his races. Not only that, but he also lost to Montana State's Ben Perrin over 3000 meters, fading to 3rd place overall in the process.
There could be a million and a half reasons why Young hasn't been performing at 100% this winter, none of which I care to speculate on. And although he has made it increasingly more difficult to keep him this high in our rankings, his history of success and raw talent keeps him (barely) within our top-20.
Ethan Strand continues to add to one of the more underrated developmental stories in collegiate distance racing. After solid, but relatively unassuming, marks of 3:59 for the mile and 7:52 for the 3000 meters, the Tar Heel ace ran a 3:55 mile PR that truly put him on the national radar.
It also has him in line to qualify for the NCAA Indoor Championships in that event.
In the weeks since, he cemented a breakout season with an ACC title over superstar and fellow-sophomore teammate Parker Wolfe in the 3000 meters via a 7:46 personal best. And that may even be his premier event!
Strand also contributed to a winning relay in the Alex Wilson Invite’s historically loaded DMR field. The Tar Heels posted a sub-9:20 result behind Strand's incredible 3:53 anchor split.
While Strand’s 7:46 (3k) won’t qualify him for the indoor national meet, that probably makes little difference considering he’ll already have his hands full in Albuquerque as an integral part of UNC’s DMR while attempting to earn potential All-American honors in the mile (if he decides to double).
Hand up, I'll admit it. I thought Luke Houser had the potential to be a better 3k runner than he would be a miler. But after this past weekend, it turns out that hunch was very, very wrong -- and I'm ok with that.
Houser was having a very strong 2023 indoor track season. He had posted times of 3:55.98 (mile) and 7:48 (3k). But those marks, as strong as they were, likely weren't going to put him on the national stage. And even if he did get to that point, then the Washington runner probably wasn't going to be viewed as a contender for an All-American honor based strictly on the last few months.
But then the Husky ace ran a 3:52 mile PR at Boston University, hilariously throwing a wrench in our understanding of what this west coast star is capable of.
Yes, Houser was an All-American in the 1500 meters last spring. But a 3:52 mile PR puts him in an entirely new tier, one that leaves us wondering if a national title, on a perfect day, is his ceiling at the indoor national meet.
There are still very legitimate questions that we have about Houser after that race, mainly which version of him will we see a week and a half from now? But given the success that he had last spring, it's hard to find too many arguments against him.
There's not really a whole lot to talk about here. Alex Maier ventured to the BIG 12 Indoor Championships this past weekend and comfortably took home wins in the 5000 meters and the 3000 meters. For the most part, this was fully expected and it doesn't really change our thoughts of him going into the national meet.
And yes, we are moving him up four spots, but that's more because our TSR crew believes that his ranking from last time was a bit too harsh and not indicative of his true talent. We wanted to implement a correction of sorts in this week's update.
Yaseen Abdalla admittedly hasn’t posited the most flashy marks since our last update, but he’s done more than enough to mostly hold firm in these rankings.
After a few weeks off, Abdalla helped Tennessee’s DMR team to a NCAA Championship qualifying time with a very strong 3:54 anchor split, no small feat in head coach Sean Carlson’s first year with the program.
A week later, he finished runner-up in a tactical SEC Championship race over 5000 meters.
Meanwhile, Abdalla's 3k mark from January still has him firmly qualified for the NCAA Indoor Championships and it sets him up to potentially earn All-American honors in two events.
It’s commendable that Abdalla has made such a quick assimilation to competing for a new program after transferring from the "other UT" this past summer. As a Volunteer, he’s more than lived up to the flashes of greatness that he displayed in a surprising All-American finish during his 2021 cross country campaign and DMR championship victory last winter.
There's truthfully not anything new to talk about with Isaac Basten. He took care of the mile/DMR double at the MVC Indoor Championships with ease, just like we expected him to. And soon, we'll finally get to see his renowned mile tactics unfold on the national stage.
It would be easy to look at Yusuf Bizimana's TFRRS profile and see that he won the 600 yard title (which is a real distance) at the BIG 12 Indoor Championships by only 0.03 seconds. Still, a win is a win and no one is going to deeply look into the results of such an odd distance.
But what we should analyze is the fact that this Longhorn star threw down a massive 1:45 split on the 800 meter leg of Texas' DMR at the Alex Wilson Invite. That is a ridiculously quick leg that was only matched by Villanova's Sean Dolan.
And yet, at the same time, for someone who has run a converted 1:46.03 (800) mark this winter (a time which leads the national leaderboard), it shouldn't come as a total surprise that Bizimana would be able to snag a 1:45 split on a relay where splits are usually (slightly) faster than open times.
We don't look too heavily into relay splits, hence Bizimana's two-spot improvement in our rankings, but that is certainly an effort that caught our attention.
A 3:56 anchor split on BYU's DMR at the Alex Wilson Invite, followed by pacing duties for the men's 5k in Seattle this past weekend, doesn't really change our opinion of Casey Clinger. He stays at TSR #13 going into the national meet.
After this weekend, it looks all but confirmed that Crayton Carrozza will not be racing the mile at the NCAA Indoor Championships despite earning All-American honors at that distance last winter.
The Longhorn ace finished with the bronze medal at the BIG 12 Indoor Championships on Saturday, one spot back of where he placed at last year’s conference championship despite running a nearly identical 3:59 (mile) mark.
Nonetheless, Carrozza reaffirmed his status as a dark horse title contender in the half-mile. He holds the NCAA #3 mark this season in that event and repeated as a conference champion over the weekend. He’s undefeated in the 800 meters this season across prelims and finals. Not to mention, Texas currently sits as the final DMR slated to reach the national meet.
One of the NCAA’s best pure middle distance runners, this veteran holds immeasurable value as an individual or member of a relay.
The last two months have been magical for this redshirt freshman. Nathan Green began his season with a solid, but modest, 3:58 mile effort on his home track. But after dropping a monster 3:52 mile personal best a couple of weeks later, our entire understanding of his abilities have changed.
The goal for Green over these last few weeks has been to validate that surprise 3:52 mile PR -- and he's done exactly that. A 1:46.99 (800) personal best was very promising. But to see him run 3:53 in the mile this past weekend was arguably the more encouraging result that he's had this season.
Sure, that 3:53 mark wasn't a personal best, but he's now run under 3:54 in the mile twice this season. That recent 3:53 mile time validates his massive 3:52 PR, effectively proving that his current fitness is the real deal and by no means a fluke.
On paper, Navasky Anderson didn't do anything wrong to be sent backwards in our rankings. However, remaining absent from the 800 meter field at the SEC Indoor Championships and only running in the DMR is incredibly odd.
Anderson is at least racing which is an encouraging sign. And who knows? Maybe the Mississippi State coaching staff wants to keep him fresh for the indoor national meet. But not toeing the line for his main event, a distance that he's favored to win a national title in, doesn't feel like a great look.
Oklahoma State's Ryan Schoppe has quietly built some serious momentum this winter. After running incredible times of 3:54 (mile) and 7:41 (3k) earlier this season, the rising Cowboy star threw down a huge 3:52 anchor split on Oklahoma State's DMR to secure the NCAA record.
On that leg, Schoppe went toe-to-toe with a star talent in Kieran Lumb. And in the end, it was Schoppe who got the better of the Washington ace. His poise and racing maturity throughout that leg was awe-inspiring.
Admittedly, Schoppe didn't have his best weekend at the BIG 12 Indoor Championships. He settled for a runner-up finish in the mile behind teammate Fouad Messaoudi (although he did beat Carrozza) and he faded hard to 15th place over 3000 meters. He did, however, assist his DMR en route to a BIG 12 title.
There's an argument for Schoppe to be ranked one spot ahead of Lumb after that DMR anchor leg, but his conference effort wasn't super encouraging. And when you consider that the NCAA Indoor Championships are also going to be held at altitude like the BIG 12 Indoor Championships were, that's something to keep in mind for Schoppe.
Everyone will be fixated on Kieran Lumb's DMR effort and how he wasn't able to fend off Ryan Schoppe for the win (as well as the collegiate record). But it's important to realize that this Canadian superstar split 3:53 in that race and has been one of the most consistent distance talents in the NCAA this season.
But the real reason why Lumb moves up one spot is because of what he did this past weekend. After running 3:53 in the mile earlier this winter, Lumb ventured to Boston University, took advantage of an uber-fast mile field and secured an incredible 3:52 mile PR, validating his elite early-season fitness.
His new mile PR was only 0.08 seconds off from the Canadian record.
Lumb is wildly dynamic and super explosive. He's been that way since the winter of 2021. And after this kind of effort, I feel like he's a bit better than his 7:43 (3k) personal best suggests.
This Irish distance superstar simply had a bad day in Boston this past weekend. In a loaded mile field full of pro athletes and his own teammates, Fay just couldn't hang with the ultra-fast pace. As a result, he faded to a mile time of 3:58.
For the most part, Fay has been really solid this season. We're not going to look too heavily into one race that was more of a time trial than a championship effort. Plus, there's a good chance that he doesn't even run the mile at the indoor national meet.
He drops one spot, but that's as far as we're willing to move him down.
Fouad Messaoudi’s stock continues to rise against all odds.
It should be impossible for a guy this accomplished to continue impressing and even surprising us. But after setting top-nine individual marks in the mile and the 3000 meters on the national leaderboard, Messaoudi set an NCAA record along with his teammates in a 9:16 (DMR) effort.
Then, he won the mile title at the BIG 12 Indoor Championships, taking down names like Schoppe and Carrozza, two of the nation’s best middle distance harriers.
At this point, there are virtually no lapses in Messaoudi’s resume. He appears to be a near lock for All-American honors in whichever events he chooses at the NCAA Indoor Championships. Multiple national titles aren’t inconceivable, particularly if he opts for the DMR/3k double.
The second-year Morrocan superstar possesses some of the best top-end versatility in one of the most historically fast and loaded eras of NCAA distance running. The next step for him is to begin stacking more All-American accolades and perhaps winning a national title. With the firepower and tactical awareness he’s displayed, it would be dismissive to call him too inexperienced to win a title.
Almost everything that we said about Brian Fay can be said about Joe Waskom. So instead of repeating ourselves, we'll just briefly give you the highlights.
Waskom has already run insanely fast this season (owning a 3:51 mile PR). He ran 3:56 in the mile this past weekend in Boston. That was simply an "off" day for him. Plus, the men's mile at the indoor national meet won't be anything close to a time trial scenario that he saw on Sunday. It will be far more tactical.
Don't look too heavily into that performance. Waskom will be just fine.
Ky Robinson silenced a lot of (undeserved) doubts in Seattle.
He came into the winter months with some of the best momentum of anyone in the country, parlaying an excellent cross country season into a December 5k win against a number of pro athletes and top collegians at Boston University in an eye-popping time of 13:11.
Over a month later, he showed no sign of losing form when he won a mile in a 3:55 PR. One could hardly tell it was his first time racing that distance at the NCAA level.
But a 7:49 (3k) mark in late January -- then his personal best and short of the high bar that we set for him -- and the fact that he was training for and racing in the World Athletics XC Championships on February 18th raised minor questions about his track fitness and focus.
Then came a 7:42 (3k) victory over his teammates and some west coast talents at UW’s Ken Shannon Invitational. That result comfortably puts him in national qualifying position for what some thought should be his ideal distance.
Robinson could now contest the NCAA Indoor Championships in three different events (if some athletes scratch out of the mile). Although, conventional wisdom suggests that he’ll opt for the two longer distances if he does decide to double.
The Aussie ace is in prime position to win his first national title after five All-American honors, including a runner-up finish in the 5000 meters at last year’s NCAA Indoor Championships. But we know not to doubt this still-rising megastar when he doesn’t immediately live up to the lofty expectations that he has built.
Yes, Drew Bosley did drop to our TSR #3 spot in this update, but that's less because of him and more because of the two guys in front of him.
The Northern Arizona superstar ran a very strong 5k/3k double of 13:39/7:59 at the BIG Sky Indoor Championships, taking home wins in both races. That was somewhat expected from someone of his caliber, so at the moment, there isn't really anything new to add about Bosley.
It's hard to say who should get our TSR #1 spot.
At the SEC Indoor Championships, Dylan Jacobs ran in the DMR (splitting 3:56 en route to an overall win) and also came back to run the 3k the next day.
In that latter event, Jacobs went to the front of the lead pack about half-way into the race. And in the final moments, he simply had enough strength to pull away from Camerieri (2nd) and Essayi (3rd) over the last lap.
But it should be noted that Essayi was doubling back that same day after winning the mile, a title that he was heavily favored for. It's hard to blame the South Carolina superstar for not having the turnover to keep up with Jacobs and a talented Ole Miss runner in Camerieri over the final lap or so.
And yet, at the same time, Essayi will need to be able to double more effectively if he plans on doing the same mile/3k schedule at the indoor national meet.
For now, we'll give the edge to Jacobs, but you could easily convince us that Essayi deserves our TSR #1 position. We probably wouldn't argue too much either way.
Tarees Rhoden (Clemson)
Ethan Strand (North Carolina)
Aidan Ryan (Washington)
Luke Houser (Washington)
Duncan Hamilton (Montana State)
Charles Hicks (Stanford)
Conor Murphy (Virginia)
Elliott Cook (Oregon)
Jonathan Jones (Texas)
Cole Sprout (Stanford)
Charles Hicks (Stanford)
Conor Murphy (Virginia)
Elliott Cook (Oregon)
Cole Sprout (Stanford)
Parker Wolfe (North Carolina)
Baylor Franklin (Ole Miss)
Jason Gomez (Iowa State)
Sam Gilman (Air Force)
Samuel Rodman (Princeton)
Barry Keane (Butler)
Graham Blanks (Harvard)
Acer Iverson (Harvard)
Cebastian Gentil (Iowa State)
Liam Murphy (Villanova)
Charlie O'Donovan (Villanova)
Cass Elliott (Washington)
Wil Sumner (Georgia)
Ronan McMahon-Staggs (UCLA)
Ayman Zahafi (Miami (FL))
John Lester (Stanford)
Mahamed Sharif (Connecticut)
Handal Roban (Penn State)
Oliver Desmeules (Penn State)
Camden Marshall (Indiana)
Aaron Ahl (Washington)
Adam Spencer (Wisconsin)
Nick Foster (Michigan)
Jackson Sharp (Wisconsin)
Jesse Hamlin (Butler)
Carter Solomon (Notre Dame)
Patrick Kiprop (Arkansas)
Victor Kipop (Alabama)
Jesse Hunt (North Carolina)
Isai Rodriguez (Oklahoma State)
Aman Thornton (Clemson)
Isaiah Givens (Colorado)