TSR Collaboration
Jan 31, 202314 min
Written by Grace McLaughlin, Marissa Kuik & John Cusick
Additional commentary and edits by John Cusick & Garrett Zatlin
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Marissa: I do not think it is currently the weakest event.
The 800 meters is one of the more challenging events to get right on the first try and it usually takes a couple of races before an athlete figures out the right pacing. That goes for veterans in the event, too. I also think the current times on the national leaderboard are where they should be for this time in January.
The times will come down later in February. That's because we can expect other athletes who have yet to race the 800 meters, like Taryn Chapko, to eventually contest the half-mile distance. In the meantime, others will have more time to optimize their approach. Add in bigger meets and we should see things start to take off.
It is hard to pick a weak event right now because it is still early in the season, but if I had to choose, I would say the mile. Yes, the top of the list is pretty good, but behind those times is a slew of 4:50 to 5:00 marks, times which barely made the national meet last year. You needed to run 4:49 if you wanted to be in the top-20 of the national leaderboard in 2022.
There are only five women right now under that 4:50 barrier. That, of course, will almost certainly change as the weeks go on.
My national title favorite right now in the 800 meters is Vanessa Aniteye because of the way she is improving, which makes me think that she still hasn't found her ceiling in the event. In her first half-mile effort of the season, she ran 2:13. Then, she ran 2:10 last weekend. And now, this weekend, she ran 2:08. That is phenomenal for an 800 meter runner dropping that amount of time over a few weeks.
Even more impressively, she had only run the 800 meters twice before this season. She has the most room to grow out of anyone else and could keep cutting down on time. We have not yet seen the best of her.
John: I think the women's 800 meters is currently the weakest event. And by the time the season ends and we are prepping for the national meet, it will still be the weakest event of the four individual races for the women.
Yes, the times will get faster. The current top-24 of the 800 meter national leaderboard came from results over the past two weekends, indicating that times should continue to improve. Last year, we saw plenty of solid results throughout February and we should expect to see that again this season. Taryn Chapko and Michelle Kuipers have yet to contest the event this winter, but they should be considered serious threats when they do.
But with no athlete distancing themselves early on, it's hard to say that anyone is a clear national title favorite. If you're asking me to choose, then it would currently be Vanessa Aniteye. For perspective, her NCAA #1 time of 2:08.74 would have been fourth on the national leaderboard last year.
With no clear-cut stars, her chances of winning gold are currently the highest.
As Marissa said, the Seattle Pacific star may have the most potential right now, which could prove dangerous in March.
Grace: At the moment, I think the 800 meters is the weakest event. Although, this says more about the talent we are seeing in other events rather than the 800 meters itself because we are seeing some emerging talents.
The indoor 800 meters is one of the harder events to prepare for due to the required balance of strength and speed. Many of these athletes are looking at their seasons going until June and I am guessing most of these runners aren't doing the "fine-tuning" right now that is necessary to drop time in the 800 meters.
We will see more women run under 2:10 as the season continues, but I do not think we will see a sub-2:05 performance until the indoor national meet.
Vanessa Aniteye is a name to watch, but Helen Braybrook of CSU-Pueblo is another name who needs to be discussed. Braybrook ran an altitude converted 2:09 mark at the New Mexico Team Open which sits at NCAA #3 on the national leaderboard. While in Albuquerque, she also ran a solid 600 meter race in a time of 1:33 which is roughly 2:04 pace for 800 meters.
Looking at her resume, Braybrook placed 10th at the NCAA Outdoor Championships last spring and was a member of the Thunderwolves' title-winning DMR squad at last year's NCAA Indoor Championships. On top of the momentum that she has going for her on the track, she had a phenomenal cross country season this past fall and placed 23rd at the NCAA XC Championships.
Braybrook's PR in the 800 meters is a solid 2:08 mark (which was run at altitude), but her recent results indicate that she will be capable of shattering that time later in the season.
Marissa: I have always been a firm believer in conversions as I believe that they are accurate to the times athletes are capable of running.
That said, I struggle the most with the mile and altitude conversions because the mile can benefit runners with varying skillsets. An athlete's perceived aerobic fitness may not match their current leg speed, making it difficult to assess their resumes, accurately.
I am looking at the athletes with other race results who demonstrate that they are working on that leg speed, so they are ready to run fast at sea level, specifically in a tactical setting, come the indoor national meet in Virginia Beach.
Of those athletes who have run at altitude this winter, I have three names who I trust the most out of that group: Miguel Coca, Evan Graff and David Cardenas.
All three of those men have some pretty generous conversions, but they also have other results which suggest that they can run faster if needed. Coca ran a mile at the New Mexico Team Open where he ran an altitude converted mile of (roughly) 3:58. He already has a 3:57 conversion from December.
His ability to run eight seconds faster going down 2400 feet (he ran 4:11 in Gunnison) has me wondering how fast Coca can run when he gets to sea level.
Graff just ran an 800 meter race this past weekend in a time of 1:53 at the Colorado Invitational. While 1:53 isn't necessarily as fast as some other athletes, it's respectable enough for a closing kick in the mile. His effort shows promising leg speed which should help him in the mile at the indoor national meet.
Finally, Cardenas demonstrated great speed in the 800 meters at the Wes Lavong Open at Adams State. He ran an altitude converted time of 1:50.
Cardenas also has always been more of an 800 meter guy. And of these three athletes, he has the fastest personal best over the half-mile distance, making him capable of being nationally competitive in the mile. He's also run 3:45 (1500) and 4:07 (mile), so him running closer to 4:00 is more of a possibility than first thought.
John: This is always my least favorite topic of conversation regarding collegiate racing.
It is incredibly hard to sit here and say that every athlete inside the top-10 is currently capable of running up to their conversion. Luckily for us, and as Marissa said, most of those athletes have other performances that we can look at and use as validation.
As I go through the top-10 list, I only see one athlete who I trust. And if we move it out to the top-15, then my list of trusted athletes remains at one. That's partially because of prior results and determining which athletes might opt for longer distances.
That one athlete is Miguel Coca. The dynamic distance talent had his best outdoor track season as an Adams State athlete and followed that up with his best cross country season this past fall. We are seeing him put it all together for this indoor track season and it's hard not to have confidence in him moving forward.
Marissa mentioned that he ran 4:03 this past weekend at New Mexico. What she didn't say was that it was Coca's outright personal best for the event as well.
Sure, the altitude conversion doesn't improve his time on the national leaderboard, but it would be the second-fastest raw time so far this season. He's also run 3:42 (1500) and 13:58 (5k) earlier in his career, so his performance this past weekend shouldn't be surprising to anyone who's been watching his development.
Grace: I think altitude conversions are a tricky topic to discuss.
Altitude slows everyone down, even the fittest and most talented runners. But having the same conversion for someone who lives and trains at 7000 feet and for someone coming from sea level is absurd.
At the same time, there's no way to differentiate altitude conversions fairly. I think the current top-10 in the mile will be shaken up quite a bit in the next few weeks, so I'm not terribly worried about all of the altitude converted marks currently listed.
Miguel Coca is the athlete who I trust the most on the current top-10 list due to his current fitness and recent performances. As Marissa and John mentioned, he had his best seasons this past year and ran well at both 5300 feet and 7700 feet. Adams State may be known for their cross country prowess, but Coach Damon Martin also produces fantastic milers.
While I trust Coca the most, Evan Graff is a close second for similar reasons. He has strong momentum going in his favor and will perform relative to his current ranking in the mile, regardless of my thoughts on altitude conversions.
Marissa: I do think it is her race to lose.
If you take Stephanie Cotter out of the equation, who has historically raced in the shorter events during track (and has actually never contested the 5k on the oval), then no one is close to Cunningham...at least not right now.
The only other person who should give her trouble is Brianna Robles. Cunningham's ability to run every single race essentially solo means that she can push the pace and feel comfortable doing so. Robles is currently the only other athlete who has run in the same realm as Cunningham.
The only scenario where I see Cunningham being upset at the national meet in the 5000 meters is if she lets the race turn into a sit-and-kick affair. Robles has demonstrated that she has more speed than Cunningham based on her personal bests in the mile/1500 meters.
But as long as Cunningham attacks the national meet like she has every other race, then she will win...I think.
John: I don't know if I am ready to say that this is Lindsay Cunningham's race to lose just yet. But I am steadily getting closer to admitting that she is the current national title favorite as we stand early in the season.
Yes, Brianna Robles technically has the better personal bests (overall) and has the 2022 indoor and outdoor 5k crowns to her name. But Cunningham just ran the NCAA #3 all-time mark (for Division Two) and won the race by 30 seconds! After the track conversion, her time sits at 15:58 and I have zero reasons to believe that she couldn't run sub-16:00 when she has competition around her for the final 1000 meters.
Robles is the more dynamic runner and has shown off better leg speed when she has moved down in distance. Heck, she's even got a better 10k PR by more than a minute, proving that she's the better (or at least more proven) endurance-centric athlete on the track.
Still, with all of that known, after seeing how Cunningham performed in the fall and how she has raced over the beginning portion of this indoor track season, it's hard not to be impressed by her. If she can run the 5k how she wants to at the indoor national meet, then we could be talking about who's racing for the runner-up spot instead of the national title.
Grace: This is an easy answer.
Cunningham is absolutely the national title favorite in this event and it will be her race to lose. But Robles is not going to lose without a tenacious fight. Robles won the 5000 meters at the NCAA Indoor and Outdoor Championships last year and is as consistent as they come.
However, Cunningham beat her at the NCAA XC Championships and now has the better momentum. I think this race will be one of the more exciting events to watch come March. Based on the current results and how the cross country season ended, I give Cunningham the upper-hand.
Marissa: I am most impressed with Cole Nash.
To be fair, he has impressed me since the cross country national meet where he finished 6th overall. Then, he returned a week later for the indoor track season and ran an altitude converted 13:59 (5k) mark. However, his 8:03 (3k) PR that he just ran at the Washington Invite is his most impressive time because I see him as more of a 5k/10k runner.
While it's only true for some 5k/10k athletes, it's known that endurance-based runners usually struggle with faster events such as the 800 meters, the mile and occasionally the 3k (depending on their skillset).
To see Nash excel in the event that could be found on the weaker end of his fitness spectrum is incredibly encouraging. He's proving that he can compete in any championship race setting, or at least expanding how competitive he can be overall.
There will still be some fast times in the next couple of weekends and during the conference meet weekend, so no one over 8:02 will make the national meet.
John: This is a no-brainer for me. It starts and ends with Dillan Haviland of Northwood.
Prior to this weekend, Haviland's personal best for 3000 meters was 8:22. A 20-second improvement is incredibly impressive. It's a testament to the work that he's put in throughout his career and he's being rewarded for it early in 2023.
We've come to know Haviland as more of a middle distance athlete and his early-season competitions signaled that he'd be heading in that direction once again. He's now raced for three-straight weekends and has tallied marks of 4:07 (mile), 1:51 (800) and now 8:02 (3k).
Those latter two times are personal bests.
The reality is that Haviland will contest another mile race and likely run significantly better than that 4:07 mark that he posted in his first race back in early January. When he does that, he'll have the option of contesting multiple events at the national meet. And that doesn't include a potential DMR leg if the Timberwolves also decide to go all-in on the relay.
Haviland is only getting better this season and I expect him to be a force on the oval when March rolls around. I'm not sure he'll be able to fight for a national title, but he's in a comfortable position to finish as an All-American for the first time in his career.
As for the qualifying time for the 3k, I'll place that at 8:00. We will see a faster year than last year, given the cross country season and early-season performances thus far.
Grace: I think I will have to go with Charlie Dannatt of Simon Fraser as the athlete who impressed me the most. Dannatt ran 7:58 (3k) at the Boston University John Thomas Terrier Classic this past weekend, improving upon his previous PR which was a distant 8:22 mark.
That's a substantial jump in a race less than two miles long.
Dannatt was 5th in the mile at last year's NCAA Indoor Championships and 3rd in the 1500 meters at the NCAA Outdoor Championships. He then placed 15th at the NCAA XC Championships, displaying his impressive range and dynamic talent. It makes sense for him to move up to the 3000 meters this year as it could seemingly be his sweet spot. And while I'm not necessarily surprised by the result due to his progression, I am still impressed.
As for what it will take to qualify for the NCAA Indoor Championships in the 3000 meters, it will be 7:59 or under. Last year, the cutoff was 8:02 and I think it will lower by a few seconds, but not too far under 8:00.
Marissa: Ryan Riddle ran 7:55 last weekend at the Washburn Rust Buster. That left me very impressed and excited about what's to come for the Missouri Southern veteran.
It's been a while since we've talked about Riddle because he has struggled a little bit in the last few seasons. TSR has had some high expectations for him, so it was nice to see him open up his indoor track season with a 7:55 (3k) mark. His validation of our expectations now puts him in the conversation of top-tier athletes in Division Two.
If that race is any indicator, then we should see improvements from Riddle across the board, specifically in the mile, the rest of the way.
For the women, Zoe Baker ran an altitude converted 4:49 mile at the Colorado Invitational.
For someone who has significantly better personal bests in the 5k and the 10k, who is also at her best in the longer distances, seeing her run as fast as she did in the mile shows us she is working on that leg speed so she can compete in the tactical races.
It is such a massive advantage to have a kick in the longer distance events and Baker proved that she could have that this past weekend. Plus, her raw time of 4:56 was still faster than any mile that she has ever run, so she is ready to run even faster in the next couple of weeks, assuming she contests the 5k and the 3k.
John: I was very impressed by Charlie Dannatt on the men's side.
Yes, I understand that he was a top-15 national meet finisher on the grass, but he's known more as a middle distance athlete on the track. He ran 7:58 (3k) to break 8:00 for the first time in his career while lowering his personal best by 24 seconds. He also anchored Simon Fraser's DMR team to a time of 9:42 which is currently sitting atop the national leaderboard.
Those result gives Dannatt some freedom regarding his individual events as you could argue for Dannatt to be a title contender from the 800 meters up to the 3k.
Sticking with Simon Fraser, I was impressed with Megan Roxby this past weekend.
Roxby ran 4:48 in the mile and knocked nine seconds off of her previous personal best. That time is good enough for NCAA #4 on the national leaderboard and it puts her in the conversation for an All-American honor.
Of course, this time isn't as surprising when you see that she ran 4:25 for 1500 meters last spring. This result is a huge step forward for Roxby as she debuted two weeks ago, but was relatively underwhelming in that rust-buster.
Grace: For the men, I think Jan Lukas Becker's 7:58 mark in the 3000 meters was impressive.
Becker seamlessly transferred from Queens (NC) to Mississippi College and excelled on the grass, highlighted by his 8th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships. His 10-second PR in the 3000 meters this past weekend shows us that he has improved his endurance and speed. While I think he is better suited for the 5000 meters, this was a promising and impressive result for Becker.
On the women's side, I think Natalie Graber's 4:44 mile time was extremely impressive and it makes me excited for her potential in this event moving forward.
The Grand Valley State star had a disappointing end to her 2022 cross country season, but has bounced back with two personal bests on the indoor oval.
I've always thought of Graber as someone who is better suited for the 3000 meters or the 5000 meters based on her success in cross country. However, this result says otherwise. Her most recent time puts her at the top of the Division Two national leaderboard in the event and is shows us that she has more speed than we thought.
Graber could make the mile a particularly exciting event at the national meet this year.