Cross Questions (Part One)

The cross country season is still months away from beginning, leaving many of us at The Stride Report with a handful of questions and plenty of uncertainty. Here are some of the biggest unknowns that are on our minds for the 2020 cross country season...

If I knew the answer to this, I would tell you, but just like everyone else, I‘m still playing the guessing game. That said, I am personally optimistic that we will see races this fall. Many schools will be bringing students back to campus this fall and for many schools, football needs to be played in order to drive revenue. If football is able to be played, then there is no reason for cross country to be cancelled.

Obviously, the health of student-athletes, coaches, family and faculty is paramount. Trying to travel and social distance will be an extremely difficult task. Jonathan Gault of LetsRun also put together a great article explaining the feasibility of a 2020 cross country season.

The idea of an altered cross country season where teams are traveling less seems like a very realistic possibility. Air travel and being in close confines with numerous other people doesn't exactly scream "social distancing". There have also been rumors about potentially altering the cross country qualifying process for the 2020 National Championships, although that is strictly hearsay at the moment.

If there is a cross country season, it seems likely that notable changes would come with it.

At the moment, it looks like the University Connecticut is in danger of potentially losing their track and/or cross country teams (along with a handful of other sports). In fact, there already seems to be proactive measurements being put in place.

UCONN may be the biggest name that is currently in jeopardy of losing it's track and cross country teams, but there are likely other programs at risk of being cut as well. With two Mid-American men's programs already gone (Akron XC and Central Michigan track), what is the likelihood that another team in the MAC is cut?

Mid-American Conference member Eastern Michigan has seen declining enrollment numbers as of late and could be in a position where they need to make cuts. Would that include their track or cross country teams?

That's only speculation -- and there are likely other schools in difficult financial positions that will keep their track and cross country teams -- but that's one example where program eliminations seem realistic.

Alright, let's jump into the actual cross country portion of this article. As it stands right now, most people will say that the NC State women and Stanford women are the two favorites to win the national title come November.

On paper, the Cardinal have the better low-sticks as they are led by two elite talents in Ella Donaghu and Jessica Lawson. However, the recent addition of Hannah Steelman, the return of Kelsey Chmiel, and the introduction of an elite recruiting class (which boasts Katelyn Tuohy) gives the impression that the Wolfpack won't be short on firepower later this fall.

However, the Cardinal women are loaded with capable veteran scorers. Jordan Oakes was an underrated scorer for the team throughout last fall, Julia Heymach made impressive strides with her fitness this past winter and Abi Archer quietly posted a 53rd place finish at the National Championships last fall. There are also a handful of talented women on the roster that are still waiting for their breakout moments.

Tack on incoming recruit Zofia Dudek (the 2019 Foot Locker national champion) and you have a legitimate varsity lineup that could very easily take on the women from Raleigh, North Carolina.

On the flip side, the NC State women are just so. darn. deep.

They're adding both Katelyn Tuohy and Marlee Starliper to the team along with a plethora of high school elites. They are also returning nearly everyone from last year's squad which was already one of the deeper teams in the country. They'll have a ton of options, but if NC State decides to lean heavily on their current group of recruits, they'll do so knowing that the young freshmen class doesn't have a ton of experience.

Both of these are teams are uniquely balanced in their own ways. That's why this year's battle for NCAA gold may be one of the most exciting yet on the women's side.

This is the year for the Wolfpack women to win a national title. If they want to win, they'll need to go all-in with whatever pieces they have. That means they will likely employ the talents of Katelyn Tuohy and Marlee Starliper later this fall. It's also very realistic that Alyssa Hendrix, Claire Walters and/or Jenna Shulz could find their way into NC State's top lineup. All three of those women may not make an appearance, but it's possible for at least one of them to don an NC State singlet.

However, at the end of the day, deciding who gets redshirted out of this group will ultimately depend on who the coaching staff decides is able (or not able) to contribute as a top seven runner come October and November. Coach Laurie Henes may also want to avoid creating a lineup that is too reliant on young and inexperienced scorers.

This depends on a lot of factors. Will Casey Clinger and Clayson Shunway both be back in All-American form later this fall? What contributions can Boise State transfer Elijah Armstrong make? Will any athletes returning from mission trips (i.e. Aidan Troutner) be able to regain enough fitness to become scorers? Can Brandon Garnica replicate or improve upon his 42nd place finish from the 2019 National Championships?

BYU can certainly be a threat to the Lumberjacks later this fall. To what extent? Well, that's the million dollar question.

I have personally gone with the assumption that Nico Young may be redshirted this fall. Yes, the Lumberjacks proved that they weren't totally invincible last fall after finishing runner-up at the national meet, but they were generally the better team throughout most of last year.

From that group, NAU loses only Geordie Beamish and you could make the argument that they still have seven different top 50 talents on their roster right now, excluding Nico Young.

Would Nico make their top seven? Yes, probably. But would they really need him this year to win a national title? Truthfully, I'm not sure if they do. While he would certainly benefit the team, it may make more sense to preserve his eligibility if Mike Smith thinks that they can still win the national title without him.

In early May, both Conner Mantz and Casey Clinger went to a track in Utah and ran a pair of 4:08's at altitude (in windy conditions). That alone should suggest that Clinger is in pretty respectable shape right now.

With months to prepare, Clinger should have no problem being a top seven guy for BYU come October and November. In fact, it's fair to suggest that he will likely be a top five scorer. But whether or not he can return to that All-American low-stick position that we saw from him as a freshman will be a key factor in how good the men from Brigham Young can be this fall.

Between Taylor Werner, Katie Izzo, Devin Clark and Carina Viljoen, the Razorback women are losing a ton of top distance talents. If we're being honest, they will likely not be the same national title contender that we saw last year.

However, this team still has the potential to be a very respectable group. Lauren Gregory will be returning this fall and should be 100% healthy this time around. She'll be joined by Furman transfer Krissy Gear (one of the better milers in the country this past winter), incoming freshman Taylor Ewert (one of the best high school distance talents in the nation over the past few years) and rising senior Abby Gray (who was in Arkansas' top seven last fall).

This group isn't perfect, and they will still need a handful of scorers to fill a few gaps in their lineup, but they have the potential to stay competitive later this fall.

This is a tricky situation to figure out. Some sources suggest that Kemboi will be competing for Arkansas later this fall while others have pointed out that he would be violating SEC transfer rules.

It's still unclear as to how this will unfold, but if Kemboi does compete in an Arkansas singlet later this fall, then the Razorbacks may have one of the best cross country lineups in the nation. The idea of Arkansas earning a podium spot isn't entirely out of the question when the National Championships come around in late November.

If you are an Oklahoma State fan, last fall was not great for you. The team had a lethal top three with Isai Rodriguez, Ashenafi Hatte and Ryan Smeeton, but their backend was volatile and their depth was lacking. Plus, Hatte failed to finish two of the three races that he toed the line for and then didn't even run at the regional meet.

This year, however, will likely be a bit different. The team loses Hatte, but he truthfully didn't offer much from a scoring perspective last year. Instead, they'll return Isai Rodriguez, Ryan Smeeton, rising sophomore Alex Maier (one of the top distance recruits from the Class of 2019) and a handful of respectable names such as Alec Haines, Bryce Quigley and Adam Dayani.

It also helps that Dave Smith will introduce a trio of top recruits in Ryan Schoppe, Will Muirhead and Grant Wilcox.

Oklahoma State likely won't enter the 2020 cross country season with the same lofty expectations that were assigned to them in 2019, but the Cowboys looks like a very respectable squad that can compete for a national qualifying spot this year.

The Michigan women have the potential to be a podium team this year if everything goes right...but they truly need everything to go right.

Ericka VanderLende is a true low-stick capable of being a top 10 finisher at the National Championships come November. She'll be joined by a plethora of promising returners such as Maddy Trevisan, Kathryn House, Jena Metwalli, Michaela DeGenero and others.

The women of Big Blue will also be getting another top-level scorer in Katelynne Hart this fall, the 2018 Foot Locker runner-up and 2019 Foot Locker 4th place finisher. Pairing Hart next to VanderLende should give the Michigan women a significant scoring boost in the upper-half of their lineup.

However, podium hopes ultimately come down to how well Camille Davre and Anne Forsyth perform this year. Both women were outstanding in 2018 with Davre finishing as an All-American in 29th place while Forsyth was just a few spots out from an All-American position of her own.

Unfortunately, the fall of 2019 didn't go so well for either Davre or Forsyth. Davre underwhelmed throughout the entire season and didn't even toe the line for the National Championships. Meanwhile, Forsyth ran unattached in a few early-season meets, but was largely absent for the rest of the regular season and postseason.

If these two women can replicate their performances from 2018 and run alongside VanderLende and Hart, then the Michigan women have the potential to be a high-caliber squad capable of earning a podium spot.

When it was announced that the Hasz twins were going to be redshirting last fall, I figured that the Golden Gophers wouldn't be very competitive. That, however, was a poor assumption as the ladies of Minnesota did enough during the regular season to earn a spot to the 2019 National Championships.

Now, as we enter the fall of 2020, the Minnesota women have the potential to be one of the best teams in the country. Not only do they return Bethany and Megan Hasz -- two of the better distance runners in the NCAA -- but the Minnesota women also return every. single. runner. from last year's top seven. That includes Anastasia Korzenowski, the 7th place finisher at the BIG 10 Championships and 9th place finisher at the Midwest Regional Championships.

By adding in a 15:25 5k runner (Bethany Hasz) and a 15:39 5k runner (Megan Hasz), Coach Sarah Hopkins now has a squad that is capable of being one of the 10 best teams in the country...or better.