The Group Chat: Tracking Transfers (Part One)

December is typically a quiet month when it comes to racing. But transfers? Well, that's a different story. Our TSR crew got together to analyze some recent transfer moves in the NCAA and dissect the potential impacts that they could have in the collegiate realm.

Maura: The additions of Wildschutt and Muhumed should elevate the Seminoles' position in the NCAA's hierarchy of teams, but it is hard to gauge exactly where they will fit in. Florida State was only 9th at the ACC Championships this past fall, but that kind of finish could be a thing of the past with these incoming talents.

What's important to recognize is that these men have experience competing at national meets, something that the other Seminoles can't boast. Wildschutt and Muhumed each bring different things to the table in terms of front-running talent, but their racing styles should mesh together fairly well with FSU veterans Paul Stafford and Caleb Pottorff.

If I had to give a ranking for Florida State, I would have to say they could land right around 25th in the NCAA currently.

Garrett: I think the Florida State men showed during the regular season that they were better than what their 9th place finish at the ACC Championships suggests. They’ve got a great front-runner in Paul Stafford and solid secondary options in Gabriel Curtis and Jacob Holmes. However, Stafford couldn’t be solely responsible for all of the scoring potency of this team while both Curtis and Holmes seem like they’re a year away from being legitimate second and third scorers.

Luckily for them, the addition of true front-runners like Wildschutt and Muhumed takes significant scoring pressure off of this lineup. It allows Florida State to be far more consistent and not rely on depth that is still in the developmental stages. On paper, I think this gives Florida State a significant leap in the national rankings, probably in the 20-21-22 range.

Eric: I agree with Maura and Garrett as I see the Seminoles in the 18 to 21 range, nationally. They were 29th at the 2019 NCAA Championships, but this year's team is very different. Paul Stafford is much better than his 71st place finish from last year's national meet and he has a promising supporting cast around him.

The 'Noles had an “off day” at ACC this past fall and truthfully, I believe that they were better than Virginia Tech, North Carolina and maybe even Syracuse. Unfortunately, they faded down the stretch, causing them to slip to 9th in the results.

With two national-caliber runners coming into the program, I do think their lineup will have more experience and firepower, two of their greatest needs. Truthfully, the impact that Wildschutt and Muhumed will have on this program will largely depend on how they fit in with their new training, team and coach.

Ben: I think I’m a bit more optimistic than Maura and Garrett. I think this is a team that will slot into the top-20. Although we have not seen Wildschutt finish that highly at a national meet, being on a Florida State team with other stud runners like Stafford and Muhumed should help him elevate his game when it matters the most.

With three fringe All-American candidates, the Seminoles need their backend guys to just run good enough. Luckily for Florida State, they have plenty of talented options such as Gabriel Curtis and Caleb Pottorff.

Florida State will be a top team regardless of how their fourth and fifth men score. However, if their final few scorers do hold their own, then this team could finish as high as 15th at the NCAA Championships this winter.

Maura: Notre Dame continues to get stronger each year and with the addition of Lauren Bailey next fall, the Fighting Irish should continue to be contenders for a top-three finish in the ACC. Bailey will bring in extremely valuable championship experience after being a D2 stud for the University of Indianapolis. She finished 9th at the D2 NCAA Championships in 2019.

Between the underclassmen, long-time veterans and the 2021 recruiting class, Bailey could help this team secure a top-10 finish at the 2021 National Championships. Their results from the ACC Championships this past fall weren't indicative of their true talent.

Garrett: I agree with Maura that Lauren Bailey makes an already good Notre Dame team even better. The Fighting Irish didn’t have their best day at the ACC Championships this past fall, but they are still incredibly young and have a handful of talented scoring options such as Maddy Denner and Jessica Schneider. Bailey will bring valuable consistency to this lineup which is something that I think Notre Dame lacked this past fall.

Admittedly, I think a top-10 finish at the NCAA Championships next fall is overly aggressive. However, a top-15 finish seems reasonable.

Eric: Lauren Bailey will go to South Bend next year and emerge as the "Elder Statesman" of the team given how young the Fighting Irish are. With a ton of experience, she should fit seamlessly into this roster. Her introduction to this squad will take the pressure off of Maddy Denner, Jessica Schneider and Olivia Markezich who could use the extra time to further develop their fitness.

The Irish were 15th at the NCAA Championships during the 2019 cross country. Yes, they did lose Anna Rohrer, but Lauren Bailey replaces at least some of the scoring potency and veteran experience that Rohrer left behind.

So with that, I’ll agree with Garrett and say they will finish right around the 10 to 18 range next fall.

Ben: I agree with Eric that the addition of Lauren Bailey will help the Irish finish as well as they did last year. While I don’t necessarily agree that Bailey will be able to replace Anna Rohrer, I do think that she will fit into their top four seamlessly and give them another consistent scorer at the front of their lineup.

Their incoming recruiting class will surely give them a boost and could even push them closer to the top-10. But, at the very least, Bailey likely positions this team for a top-15 finish at the 2021 NCAA Championships next fall.

Maura: Aaron Bienenfeld is a talented runner who will only add to Oregon’s overwhelming arsenal of low-sticks. With the likes of Cooper Teare, Cole Hocker, Jackson Mestler, Charlie Hunter and company, Bienenfeld could be the missing piece for the Ducks if they want to make the podium in the fall of 2021.

I wish we could’ve seen Bienenfeld compete at the 2019 NCAA Championships after he won the Great Lakes regional title, but with his newfound success on the grass and strong 5k / 10k personal bests from this past summer, he should have no issue replicating his fitness next fall.

The Ducks may not be the clear national title favorite heading into the fall of 2021, but they are definitely worthy of finishing 3rd or 4th at NCAA's assuming everyone comes back. Teare and Hocker have proven to be major national contenders while Hunter, Jackson Mestler, Reed Brown and Carter Christman -- all veterans of the program -- offer extensive scoring support and depth.

Bienenfeld could be a strong contributor at the middle portion of this lineup if he adapts well to a new team dynamic, a new training philosophy and a new historically strong program. As a result, I think Oregon can be a podium team.

Garrett: Yes, Oregon can definitely be a podium team. There is just too much talent on this roster for them not to be at least top-four at the NCAA Championships next fall. Very few teams have the same amount of firepower as them. As for their ceiling, I think they are one of the very few teams that, on paper, could actually contend with Northern Arizona if everything goes perfectly.

Do I still think NAU is the better team? Yes, by a heavy margin, but everything that we have seen from the Ducks on the track indicates that they could have numerous All-Americans, as many as four or even five. Of course, that’s wildly optimistic and it largely depends on if the Oregon men can translate their success from the track to the grass.

Ultimately, I think Bienenfeld gives Oregon that last piece that the Ducks need to be nationally competitive with the best of the best programs in the NCAA.

Eric: Bienenfeld will most likely enjoy running at a school where he is no longer is he the lone wolf of his conference, but rather is now one of the “men of Oregon”.

Cooper Teare is a favorite to win the individual national title, Cole Hocker is one of the hottest names on the collegiate circuit after running 13:32 for 5000 meters the other weekend and both Charlie Hunter and Jackson Mestler seem like promising scorers in their own right given their performances on the track.

In theory, Bienenfeld should be that missing piece for Oregon and someone who can be their third scorer. However, I do see a couple of holes in the seemingly impenetrable Oregon fort.

Charlie Hunter has not run all that well at the cross country national meet during his career, finishing well into the 100's both times he has competed. Reed Brown is still unproven at the 10k distance and Carter Christman has only competed in two 10k races during his collegiate career.

We're also making assumptions that Teare, Hocker and Bienenfeld are all going to be All-Americans. Sure, that's very possible (and maybe even probable), but I’m still not totally sold on Oregon.

With that being said, I do think reaching the podium is Oregon's ceiling. Trying to battle through the likes of NAU, BYU, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Notre Dame and Tulsa will prove to be a challenge, but if all of the pieces of the puzzle come together perfectly, then the Ducks could be on the podium.

Ben: Oregon is a fascinating team to look at for the fall of 2021 because I think they might have one of the smallest gaps between their potential floor and their potential ceiling. I don’t see the Ducks beating either NAU or BYU, but I struggle to see them falling out of the top five.

Eric is right to point out that they will have plenty of competition for those podium spots, but with the amount of talent they have on their roster, they have a much larger margin of error than a team like Oklahoma State or Tulsa does.

Bienenfeld not only gives them another potential low-stick to go with Cooper Teare and Cole Hocker, but he also gives them more depth, consistency and a larger margin or error. Even if Hocker does not run his best or if Jackson Mestler is not able to convert his 13:36 5k time into a top-80 finish at Nationals, Bienenfeld gives still Oregon a "get out of jail free" card when they need it.

Perhaps I am selling this team short by considering their potential NCAA finish to be within 3rd to 5th, but it is telling that they have entered the NAU/BYU zone of being penciled-in for a podium spot 10 months before the national meet in question.

Maura: The bigger win has to be Melia Chittenden to Duke. The current Princeton runner has competed twice at the national meet in cross country and boasts respectable times on the track. The Blue Devils will benefit from Chittenden’s transfer as she brings valuable veteran experience with her, especially after coming from the Ivy League.

Duke is a team on the rise in both the ACC and the NCAA. Although the Blue Devils lose Amanda Beach to Florida State, Chittenden should offset the loss of Beach and potentially even improve upon that scoring spot.

Garrett: This one is a bit trickier than I think some people realize. The Duke women return most of their top runners from last fall with the exception of Beach. Luckily, Chittenden will be able to immediately fill that gap.

As for Beach, her introduction to this Florida State program, along with the eventual return of Lauren Ryan, should give the ‘Noles a notable scoring boost and improve their stock as long as they return their main pieces next fall.

Ultimately, I’ll say that Chittenden is the bigger win. I think she has a greater chance to run with Reinhart and Schadler than Beach did. That said, Beach gives the FSU women another highly valuable scoring option. I am convinced that she is better than what her 26th place finish at the ACC Championships suggests.

Eric: Not much to add as Garrett and Maura have summed up both sides of the coin, but I think Duke is hot coming off of their 4th place finish at the ACC Championships. Adding someone like Chittenden, who has been to the NCAA Championships twice in her college career, should only strengthen a program like Duke that is trying to take the next step up.

Ben: Like Garrett said, I think this is a difficult choice, but I think the bigger win is Chittenden. The former Princeton runner is an even bigger addition now that Beach is leaving Duke and heading to Florida State. Chittenden was always going to play a big role for the Blue Devils, but she will be leaned on even more so now that Duke is losing their third scorer.

Beach is still a very nice addition for the Seminoles as she will give them depth and help push the team back into contention for a top-10 ranking, nationally.