TSR Collaboration
Feb 17, 202115 min
There's only one month to go until the madness of the dual cross country and indoor track national meets unfold. With those championship races fast approaching and so much happening this past weekend, we felt like now was a good time to try and answer a few burning postseason questions that we have in mind.
So with that, let's just right into it...
*Note: Sam Tanner has not yet qualified for the NCAA Championships in the mile, but we are assuming that he will eventually earn a national qualifying spot.
Maura: It’s an 8 from me. Sam Tanner of Washington was posting remarkable times over the last few weeks in New Zealand before coming back to the United States for the New Balance Indoor Grand Prix to compete in the 1500 meters. Even though the 1500 isn’t a contested event at the indoor national meet, Tanner did leave New York City with the indoor collegiate record (3:34.72) which also happened to be a PR by five seconds.
Cooper Teare and Cole Hocker are obviously coming off of remarkable 3:50 mile performances, but is the mile really going to be the event they are most heavily favored in? With Sam Tanner looking wildly strong, I can't help but wonder if NCAA gold is more likely in the 3000 meters for that duo (as well as the DMR).
Tanner has the potential to win the men’s national title in the mile after competing against professionals numerous times this season. All three men have some serious momentum going into the later part of the season, but I personally have to say that there is no overwhelming favorite for the mile title.
Ben: I agree wholeheartedly with Maura. Tanner deserves to be seen as a major threat, so I would give him an 8 as well. I mentioned this in our latest Blue Oval Podcast, but I think that Tanner’s 3:34 was actually better preparation for the mile at the NCAA Championships than Teare and Hocker’s 3:50.
The Husky ace was in a legitimate race instead of a time trial which forced him to make moves and stay tactically strong throughout the contest. The mile at NCAA's will likely not be run at the same pace from this past weekend, so it was very encouraging to see Tanner finish highly against a pro field while still running a time that would have also broken the former collegiate record if converted to a mile.
Michael: I also think an 8 is appropriate. Cooper Teare and Cole Hocker showed that they are in phenomenal shape, but their race was much different than the style of racing we typically see at NCAA’s. Sure, going out and running 3:50 in an NCAA final is a great way to knock most of the field out of contention, but I would be shocked if they run that fast in a championship race.
Between a preliminary heat and a likely DMR appearance for both Teare and Hocker on day one, I think they will need to race somewhat tactically in order to win during day two. As of right now, Washington has yet to run a DMR.
If the Huskies choose not to contest the DMR or choose to not even qualify for the indoor national meet, then that leaves Tanner fresher for the mile final. None of these guys (Teare, Hocker or Tanner) have ever run the mile (or 1500 meters) at an NCAA Championship and I think that would put them on a pretty level playing field in that regard.
Maura: It’s hard to bet against someone who has already run 2:01 this indoor season, winning the race by an outstanding eight seconds. Plus, when you take into account Mu’s remarkable speed in the 400 meters, it's hard to imagine that anyone could realistically keep up with this freshman.
There are, however, two women who at least have the potential to take down Mu at the indoor national meet: Baylor’s Aaliyah Miller and Colorado’s Sage Hurta. Even so, there are question marks surrounding both of those middle distance stars.
Miller has come on strong this season, running a promising personal best of 2:02, but she has yet to piece everything together on the national stage. Hurta, meanwhile, has also run 2:02, but she hasn't been challenged in her two indoor appearances so far this season. The redshirt senior could also choose to focus solely on the mile after her 4:31 mark at Iowa State.
If both Miller and Hurta continue on the path they are on now, one of them could challenge Mu given their extensive experience. But if I had to choose, the most likely woman to take down the Texas A&M ace would be Hurta.
Ben: I think it has to be Hurta. The Buffalo star has looked extremely strong in both of her races this year and has shown that she is capable of hanging on to a quick pace at the start. I think Mu will dictate how the race is run given her clear fitness advantage over the field. Her best chance at NCAA gold would be to simply run away from the field.
For that reason, I think Hurta’s combination of lethal times in the 800 meters and the mile gives her the best chance to hang with Mu no matter how the race is run.
Michael: I am also going to go with Hurta. She has run 2:00.99 (outdoors) making her the only woman currently in the NCAA with a faster personal best than Mu. I think Athing Mu is capable of more than her current PR of 2:01.07 and I agree with Ben that she will likely attempt to push the pace at NCAA’s in an effort to drop the field.
Hurta is, in my eyes, the only one who may be capable of sticking with Mu in a hypothetical sub-2:01 race.
Maura: I think it goes without saying that Hunter should at least pursue the DMR with his Oregon teammates, but as for the 800 or the mile, I think his best bet would be in the 800 meters, even if he has less rest between that race and the DMR.
At this point in the season, the mile seems to be pretty crowded up-front given how many elites names there currently are and will be. The 800, on the other hand, is far less top-heavy.
Yes, Hunter’s 3:53 mile personal best places him amongst the top-three in the country, but his recent 1:45 shot him up to NCAA #1 in the 800 meters on the national leaderboard. The Ducks could pick up valuable points in the 800 meters if Hunter were to contest that event.
Ben: Garrett and I talked about this during our podcast, but after looking at the schedule for the NCAA Indoor Championships, it makes more sense for Hunter to run the 800 and DMR double. It is an extremely tough one to pull off, but there aren’t many men who can run 3:53 and 1:45 in back-to-back days. Oregon’s DMR would likely be good enough to win without him, but putting the Aussie star in their DMR virtually guarantees a victory.
Hunter could attempt the mile and 800 double, but he would only have about 50 minutes of rest between the 800 semifinal and the mile semifinal (and yes, I know he would have a short amount of rest between the 800 and the DMR on day one). Yet, even if he made it through in both the mile prelims and 800 prelims, he would have only a 35 minute break between those two races on day two.
With Hunter being a bigger favorite in the 800 meters compared to the mile, it would benefit the Oregon Ducks if he were to put his focus on the half-mile distance. If Hunter wants to scratch from the DMR, then he will enter the 800 as the co-favorite with Takieddie Hedeilli and have a great chance of taking home NCAA gold with fresh legs.
Michael: I think Charlie Hunter should first and foremost pursue the 800 meters at the indoor national meet. He is the top performer in the event this season, and while he has enough talent to win the mile, he has a better shot in the 800 meters.
If Teare and Hocker can go 1-2 in the mile and Charlie Hunter can win the 800 meters (or even finish runner-up), then that puts Oregon in the best position when aiming for a team title.
With the 800 as his priority, Hunter can then double in the DMR. Even then, Oregon doesn’t necessarily need Hunter on the DMR to have a shot at winning, but having him on that relay takes the Ducks from being the overall favorites to a near title lock.
Hunter would be doubling back to the DMR on short rest after the 800 prelim if that were to happen, but he can likely hold back a bit in the preliminary rounds and make the 800 final without a ton of difficulty.
Running the mile may be an appealing possibility for Hunter considering Oregon has the top three qualifiers at the moment, but they don’t really need him in the event. With Reed Brown currently sitting at NCAA #6 in the mile, Oregon has three potential All-Americans at that distance, even without Hunter.
Given those circumstances, I would be surprised to see Hunter not run the 800 meters.
Maura: I like the momentum that Colorado’s Sage Hurta has right now in the mile. Hurta won the mile in a new personal best of 4:31 at the Iowa State Classic over the weekend, winning by a solid 16 seconds. Although there was a pacer through the first part of the race, Hurta basically finished alone and pushed herself to the top time in the NCAA this year.
Gear, on the other hand, has been solid all season, emerging as an instrumental piece of the Razorbacks' recent success. At the indoor national meet, Gear will most likely choose to race the DMR in addition to the mile which, in theory, could force her to run on tired legs prior to facing Hurta if the Colorado runner were to scratch out of the 800 meters.
However, following her school record in the mile, Gear mentioned how she actually thinks she races better when having a hard effort under her legs from the day before.
One other thing to consider for Gear is that she will be a key member of Arkansas' cross country team. Will that fact potentially impact how she approaches the indoor national meet? Honestly, we're not sure, but there just seems to be a lot of moving parts with Krissy Gear.
If I had to choose, Hurta probably has the better possibility of winning the national title in the mile given her dominating wins and strong resume from years prior. It also helps that she doesn't have to worry about cross country since she is out eligibility, although the potential for her to also run in the 800 meters should loom in the back of our minds when talking about Hurta's title chances.
Ben: This is a really tough one. Both women have run 4:31 and have been very impressive this winter. Maura makes a strong case for Hurta, but I think I'm leaning towards Gear. The Razorback ace will be on her home track at the NCAA Indoor Championships and has proven her tactical prowess this year, picking up several top finishes against highly-ranked competition.
As for Hurta, her times have been impressive, but she doesn't have those same wins or experience against high-level competition this winter (at least not yet).
While Gear may need to run in the DMR, I think she will be able to bounce back well enough in the mile. Hurta, on the other hand, may choose to focus on the 800 and skip the mile altogether.
Michael: I’m leaning towards Krissy Gear in this case, but it’s close. With nearly identical times, Hurta and Gear are as close to co-favorites as it gets, but I think Gear has the slight edge. Arkansas currently has three athletes in the top-five for the mile, and an astonishing six women in the top-16.
The Razorbacks could very easily employ some team tactics in the prelims (and maybe even the finals) if they choose to go all-in for the mile. I think that boosts Gear’s chances just enough for me to choose her at this point.
Maura: This is a tricky question to answer because all three of these men could vie for top finishes at the national meet in the 5000 meters. However, the Cougars are also aiming to defend their cross country national title a few days after the indoor national meet.
On the grass, Mantz is in the conversation to win the individual title while Clinger and Garnica are capable of top-20 finishes. After posting strong results at the Silver State XC Challenge on both the individual and team levels, it would be hard to see Coach Ed Eyestone choosing to race three of his star talents on the track when his team is trying to repeat as cross country team champions.
If this trio were to compete in both the 5k and cross country, then that means they would have put 15,000 meters of championship racing on their legs within a couple days.
I think Mantz is very capable of the indoor/XC double given his success on the track in the 5k/10k at the 2019 national outdoor meet. But how would Clinger and Garnica fare? I'm not sure I would have them run on the indoor oval in March.
Ben: With BYU looking to defend their NCAA XC title from last year, I think Coach Eyestone should pull Clinger and Garnica from the NCAA Indoor Championships. I would let Mantz run just because he has proven that he is capable of effectively doubling at past National Championships and because of his ability to grind out results consistently. He never has a bad race.
The Cougars do not have a large margin of error when it comes to beating Northern Arizona in cross country. They need their top-four of Mantz, Clinger, Garnica and Shumway to be hitting on all cylinders. They still need to figure out who their final scorer will be and that puts even more emphasis on the success of the Cougar's front four. Keeping Garnica and Clinger fresh could end up being the difference in their race against NAU.
Michael: The BYU men are going to need to bring everything they have if they want to hold off NAU and repeat as cross country national championships. For that reason, I think BYU should put their sole focus on a second-consecutive NCAA cross country title and ONLY race this trio at the NCAA XC Championships.
In the current qualifying picture, I think it’s safe to say that the Cougars have as good of a shot as any team in the nation to have someone earn an individual title on the track. Mantz, Clinger and Garnica own the top-three spots in the nation right now in the 5000 meters and are the only guys under 13:30 so far this season.
However, BYU has always struck me as a cross country-first kind of team. Another NCAA XC team title is what I think they’re after, and having these three guys fresh maximizes their chances of taking down Northern Arizona in Stillwater.
Anything but a fully fresh BYU squad plays into NAU’s hands, as the Lumberjacks have not run their full cross country group on the track this season, so they are clearly all-in on cross country this winter.
Maura: It is oftentimes hard to gauge how track success translates to the cross country course, but I could see Alabama’s Amaris Tyynismaa only moving up from her past fall performances given her outstanding mile/3k personal bests over the last few weeks.
Tyynismaa was a reliable fifth scorer at the SEC XC Championships in the fall, finishing a respectable 26th place which was far better than her 2019 conference DNF. However, so far this season, the sophomore has positioned herself at the top spot on this team in the mile and as the second-best runner on this team in the 3000 meters, sporting marks of 4:33 and 9:03, both of which are massive personal bests.
I don’t see the Alabama sophomore leading the Crimson women on the grass as that seems to be Mercy Chelangat's and Esther Gitahi’s roles. However, if Tyynismaa and Jami Reed can finish alongside one another near the front of that lead scoring group, then Alabama will have a formidable top-four which could challenge some of the top teams in the NCAA given their unruly firepower. Depth will be far less of a factor in that lineup.
Ben: I think her success will translate over fairly well. We have seen plenty of accomplished milers compete at a high level on the grass. I agree with Maura that it is unlikely that we see her ahead of Alabama’s top duo, but I think she will be close behind.
As for the Crimson Tide as a whole, it is clear that they are better now than they even were in the fall. While they aren’t at Arkansas’ level yet, they do look like the clear second-best team in the SEC and that should carry over to the fall when the cross country season will look a little more normal.
Their depth was more of the concern last fall, but that seems be less of a worry. They are now one of the few teams in the NCAA where, on paper, the success of their low-sticks outweighs the importance of their depth.
Michael: I generally agree that Amaris Tyynismaa’s track success bodes well for her potential in cross country. Her recent improvements on the track are promising, but her rise has not been so big as to make her Alabama’s top cross country athlete. She will add valuable depth to their cross country roster, but at this point, I think she is still stronger as a middle distance athlete on the track.
As Alabama looks to challenge Arkansas within the SEC and compete for team berths to the NCAA Championships (all of which they did this past fall), Tyynismaa's role will at least solidify Alabama's place amongst the top teams on the national stage and give the Crimson Tide less of a chance of faltering at the cross country national meet.
Maura: I think it goes without saying that athletes on both the men's and women’s sides aren’t letting COVID-19 wreck their indoor track plans. Seeing 30 men eclipse the 4:00 mile barrier and 18 women run faster than 4:40 already (with an entire month of competition to go) is incredibly encouraging and frankly, very surprising.
As for the longer distances, more men and women are setting personal bests, which is ultimately making it difficult to predict which runners are going to focus on the cross country national meet track and which runners are going to focus on the indoor national meet. But either way, this indoor track season is shaping up to be much more entertaining than we were initially expecting it to be.
Ben: I am also amazed by the quality that we have seen this winter season. With many athletes bouncing between the track and the grass, it is incredible to see how many fast times these runners have hit. I certainly overestimated the impact that having two seasons running simultaneously would have on the times as a whole. Many of these distance fields are just as top-heavy or just as deep...or both!
Michael: My biggest takeaway is how impressive the performances we have seen are given the limited number of race options available.
There are no meets at Boston University. No massive invitationals loaded with top-tier competition like we are used to at the Dempsey in Seattle, Washington. There is limited travel for numerous teams all over the country. The strict testing protocols have also played a role.
In theory, all of those factors should have contributed to substantially slower times and less depth compared to what we have seen so far this winter.
The depth at the top level of the NCAA has hardly taken a hit despite those factors which only leaves me to wonder how much more we would be seeing if this was a regular year with big races all around the country featuring more head-to-head competition from top teams.
However, these limited opportunities do impact smaller teams in smaller conferences. The top level of the NCAA is thriving at the moment, but teams with smaller budgets aren’t able to travel all over the country to find races. This has left some elite athletes at mid-major programs with far fewer races and meets which is a bit unfortunate.
Maura: For the men, I was hoping that Sam Worley of Texas would have been in the top-three in the 800 meters at the Tyson Invitational, but the Longhorn ace faded to 19th overall and only ran 1:56.
Worley is definitely capable of more, as he has run 1:48 in the past, but given that this was his first race back since a multi-season-ending injury in 2020, he can only go up from here. He may not return to top form this winter, but hopefully the next month of competition gives him enough momentum to be competitive during the spring.
For the women, I’m really interested in seeing what the BYU duo of Courtney Wayment and Olivia Hoj can continue to do. With both ladies out of cross country eligibility and throwing down top times in the mile and 3k, one has to expect them to be in the national title conversation (depending on the event).
Wayment, who ran 15:37 for 5000 meters (unattached) last year, has yet to race that distance this winter. However, if she does pursue the 5k within the next few weeks, then she could be a two-event title contender. Hoj has also shown great improvement after running a 15 second PR in the 3k, so I'll be curious if she also ends up going after a fast 5k time in the future.
Ben: This may be a bit vague, but I would like to see some more head-to-head matchups between the title favorites in each event. It is really incredible to see Oregon run the times that they did this past weekend, but now I want to see them go up against some of the other title favorites like Sam Tanner in the mile or Luis Grijalva in the 3k.
On the women’s side, we've seen a bit more action between the title favorites, but it would be great to see BYU lineup against Arkansas. While this might be a bit of a pipe dream because of COVID-19 and the reduction in travel, I would personally love to se a little bit of a preview before Nationals.
Michael: I’m really hoping to see the women’s 800 meter collegiate record fall. Athing Mu is already knocking on the door as a freshman and Sage Hurta’s personal best is not far off. Jazmine Fray currently has the record at 2:00.69 and it’s not unrealistic to think that Mu or Hurta could take it down.
For Mu, getting this record would be further indication of her being one of the best young talents we’ve ever seen in the event. For Hurta, the record would be a perfect way for her to leave a legacy as her NCAA career comes to a close.
If either (or ideally both) of them get into a fast enough race, I think we’ll see a new name in the record books.