TSR Collaboration
Nov 10, 202216 min
Written by Maura Beattie, Scotty Loughlin & Gavin Struve, edits by Garrett Zatlin
The NCAA XC Regional Championships all go down on Friday!
One of the most chaotic times of the year had our TSR writers formulating numerous national qualifying scenarios and attempting to decipher which teams are the safest to advance and which teams are at the greatest risk of ending their season early.
Below, we asked our three Division One specialists to answer a handful of questions about tomorrow's races. In many instances, our writers are using Bo Waggoner's brilliant Kolas calculator tool, xcquals.com, to make their predictions and talk about scenarios.
Alright...here we go.
Maura: I’m placing myself at a 6 on this scale.
Stanford, Portland and Oregon have pretty good odds of qualifying for the NCAA XC Championships out of this region depending on where you have them finishing.
However, California Baptist, Gonzaga and Washington are fringe teams at the moment when it comes to qualifying for the "Big Dance". No one meet has solidified these three teams a guaranteed at-large bids, so there’s a lot on the line this upcoming weekend.
This is Stanford’s race to win. They’ve got the firepower at the front of their lineup that is simply unmatched by the rest of their competition in this region.
Portland’s success at Nuttycombe, where they beat all of the heavy hitters in the West region (aside from CBU who went to Pre-Nationals), is a good indicator of them earning runner-up honors on Friday.
The Pilots also have a history of peaking for this meet.
So, if Stanford and Portland take the top-two spots in the region, then CBU and Oregon can earn themselves at-large bids with 3rd and 4th place finishes, respectively. However, in a handful of scenarios, this leaves Washington and Gonzaga on the outside looking in.
Of course, if the roles are reversed, and Oregon finishes 3rd with CBU settles for 4th, then Washington and Gonzaga could see their seasons extended another week.
Based on how they've performed this fall, it's unlikely that Washington and Gonzaga will see a 3rd place finish on Friday, but it's not totally unrealistic, especially for the Huskies.
Scotty: I'll say 5...but I don't exactly know how to feel about that.
I am very high on the capabilities of numerous teams in this region, and my projected Kolas scenario actually has seven teams from the West region earning a bid to the NCAA XC Championships: Stanford, Oregon, California Baptist, Portland, Washington, Cal Poly and Gonzaga.
Not sure how that happens? Click here for my explanation.
Admittedly, that possibility hinges on a couple of “upsets” occurring in other regions that I predicted. This would mean leaving out Michigan and Utah State, among other teams that are also on the bubble.
But truthfully, I'm not sure too many people have Cal Poly projected as a national qualifier, so them not advancing to the NCAA XC Championships would hardly be a shock. If the Mustangs were to finish 7th, then there are a good number of realistic scenarios where six West region teams still advance.
And for that reason, I'm putting my nervousness rating at a slightly lower value of 5.
Gavin: I’d say an 8 out of 10. The West region will probably be the most contentious region, and it’s highly probable that one of our TSR top-25 teams at this meet will be left out of the national qualifying picture.
In fact, it’s conceivable that two teams who meet that description could find themselves on the outside looking in. My projection has Stanford and Portland in the top-two, California Baptist finishing 3rd and Washington edging out Oregon for 4th place after beating the Ducks at the PAC-12 XC Championships.
And since they have higher upside, I couldn't bring myself to give up on the Huskies' preseason top-10 status just yet.
That scenario would leave the Ducks and Gonzaga on the outside looking in. Of course, the inverse could also put Washington in that unenviable position.
I haven’t even mentioned Gonzaga yet, a team that hasn’t lived up to their preseason expectations this fall, but still has a shot of advancing to Stillwater, Oklahoma.
As Garrett outlined in our Kolas projections article, there’s still a path for all four of those top-25 teams to make it out of the West region (including the two auto-qualifiers).
However, it seems more likely than not that at least one of these talented West region teams will miss out on the national meet, largely because of the Lancers’ ascension.
Maura: The Furman women just haven’t been as deep as in years past. Yes, they easily won all but one meet this season, but that one meet, Nuttycombe, carries the most weight.
A 22nd place finish at one of the nation’s premiere meets doesn’t bode well for what the Paladins hope to accomplish later in the season (which is qualify for the national meet). It also doesn’t help that they will be competing in a top-heavy Southeast region where the favorites should easily qualify.
I have more faith in Lipscomb advancing out of the South region with an at-large bid thanks to how they've performed against other fringe qualifiers throughout this fall.
The Bison also have the (slim) chance to finish 2nd at the South Regional XC Championships on Friday if they race like they did at the Arturo Barrios Invite and the ASUN XC Championships.
In years past, taking down Florida State would’ve been a hefty task, but Lipscomb checks all the boxes this fall, proving that are ready to pull off the upset.
Scotty: Unfortunately, based on my Kolas scenario, I foresee both squads missing out on a national meet bid. However, between the two, I’m with Maura that Furman is in greater jeopardy entering the regional weekend.
The Paladins feel like a “high-floor” team that is destined for a top-five finish in the Southeast region. However, with NC State, North Carolina and Virginia expected to advance to the national meet fairly easily, the Furman women will have to hold off teams with more top-end firepower (i.e. Liberty and Kentucky) to even have a shot at qualifying -- and that still might not be enough.
Lipscomb doesn’t have an easy path to the NCAA XC Championships by any means, but there is a somewhat realistic scenario where the Bison snag an auto-qualifying spot by upsetting Florida State in the South region.
Lipscomb has also run well against a handful of sneaky-good teams. An unexpected Kolas point could certainly benefit the Bison on Friday even if they finish 3rd in their region.
Admittedly, Lipscomb's chances are still fairly slim, but there are at least a few more favorable scenarios than what the Furman women have available.
Gavin: I prefer Furman’s stability, even in a deeper Southeast region and despite the Paladins’ unevenness this season.
Yes, it is more likely that Lipscomb upsets a top-two team in their region, but that's still a long shot and I view Furman as the slightly superior team.
The fact that the Paladins have a tie-breaking edge over the Bison in a hypothetical qualifying situation where they are contending for the last at-large spot makes me favor the Furman women, even if they’re likely to be further down in their regional standings.
Maura: The chances for Georgetown to take down Princeton for 2nd place in the Mid-Atlantic region is higher than the possibility of Providence beating Harvard in the Northeast region.
The Georgetown men have had some respectable performances this fall. Nothing lights out, but still decent enough to potentially earn a runner-up finish on Friday.
The Hoyas may have finished 3rd at the BIG East XC Championships, but their 3-4-5-6-7-8 runners were only separated by eight seconds. That’s some solid depth for this team that should theoretically favor the Hoyas in a larger field.
Princeton is arguably just as strong as the Hoyas, but it’s going to be the back-half of the Tigers' lineup that will ultimately decide if they get the edge on Georgetown.
As for Harvard, they have already beaten Providence once this season at Nuttycombe where the Crimson finished 21st and the Friars placed 25th.
What the men of Harvard have that Providence doesn’t have is truly elite firepower via Acer Iverson and Graham Blanks. And while Harvard's lack of depth is worrisome in a larger field, that firepower is likely going to be the reason why the Crimson hold steady for a top-two finish in the Northeast region.
Scotty: Gosh, it’s really enticing to pick Providence over Harvard in this “either-or” exercise.
As Maura pointed out, Harvard has elite scoring potency from their top-two guys, but the question marks begin to flood in when looking at the middle-to-backend portion of their lineup.
Despite Providence’s runner-up finish at the BIG East XC Championships, I’m not confident enough about their chances to capitalize on Harvard’s backend weaknesses. The BIG East is a very top-heavy conference which, in my eyes, somewhat inflates the Friars’ recent performance.
For that reason, I’ll take Georgetown’s chances against Princeton. These teams feel evenly matched with different structures, with the Hoyas being more fiery upfront and the Tigers being more complete.
I’ll roll the dice on firepower in both scenarios, which would result in Harvard holding off Providence, and Georgetown taking down Princeton.
Gavin: My first instinct was to go with the group and say Georgetown over Princeton as the more likely of the two potential upsets.
However, it seems foolish to give Providence more bulletin board material when the Friars beat the Hoyas at their conference meet and Harvard finished behind the Tigers at the Ivy League XC Championships.
Purely by comparing results, one might think that the Friars are evenly matched with the Crimson. After all, both programs reside in the “Just Missed” section of our top-25 rankings.
Harvard did already beat Providence in a national-caliber field (Nuttycombe) this fall, but the regional meets hold far less upfront firepower.
It's certainly possible that Providence’s depth will stay closer together in a moderate-sized field while Harvard’s backend scorers struggle to close the gap behind their low-sticks.
So for that reason, I'll say a Friars upset over the Crimson is more likely.
Maura: I would say that Texas A&M beating Texas for a 2nd place finish in the South Central region is a more realistic scenario.
Neither team has necessarily been spectacular this fall, but the South Central region just isn’t as deep as the other regions. Naturally, here’s some wiggle room for the Aggies to outperform expectations.
Texas A&M and Texas are very similar teams in that there is no one runner with more firepower than another competitor. So for the Aggies to edge the Longhorns, they will need to rely on a small top-five time-spread.
The score between these two teams hailing from Texas will be extremely close regardless of who ends up getting the edge.
As for the other option, Iowa State bettering Northwestern, the Cyclones just don’t have the same depth and firepower that they've had in year's past.
And yes, the Northwestern women are still a step behind some of the top teams in the country, but they’ve put up some very respectable results against many of these Midwest region teams throughout this season.
Scotty: Out of these four teams, Iowa State’s stock seems the highest, comparatively.
If Cailie Logue was still running for them, then we’d have an easy pick, but even without their Cyclone star, the Iowa State women were able to earn bronze at the BIG 12 XC Championships, well ahead of Texas.
Between the Cyclones and the Northwestern Wildcats – whose fourth and fifth scorers hindered them from making noise at the BIG 10 XC Championships – I’ll bet on Iowa State’s depth. I just think they have more momentum than any of these four teams.
However, the other matchup of Texas vs Texas A&M is a legitimate toss-up.
Neither of those teams have a well-defined identity, and if we’re being honest, they wouldn’t be in the conversation for the national meet if the state of Texas didn’t occupy such a massive portion of the South Central region.
Gavin: I tend to give teams the benefit of the doubt, perhaps to a fault, when it comes to rediscovering potential entering the postseason.
So I’m going to do that here, favoring both the Cyclones and the Longhorns to take down teams who they were rated above during the preseason.
Both programs have a higher pedigree and considerably more success in recent years. I think it’s fair to say that Iowa State, though they've been a shell of what they were last year, is close to a coin flip with an improved Northwestern team on Friday.
I’m not entirely confident in Northwestern’s status as an auto-lock favorite on Friday, and they could struggle facing the second-best team out of this quartet.
Maura: I’ve got to settle on the Southeast region.
Wake Forest has the regional title locked up simply based on how dominant they've been throughout these fall months (and more specifically, the ACC XC Championships).
However, it's the second auto-lock spot and the ensueing at-large positions that could wildly fluctuate between North Carolina, NC State, Virginia, Charlotte and maybe even Eastern Kentucky.
Of those teams, the Tar Heels have the best shot at finishing runner-up in the region, but we can't forget that NC State took down the men from Chapel Hill at Nuttycombe earlier this season. The Wolfpack could potentially edge UNC once again on Friday if Brett Gardner regroups after struggling a bit at his conference meet.
NC State, Virginia, Charlotte and possibly EKU could all finish in a variety of different orders, potentially impacting the national qualifying landscape around the NCAA. The Charlotte men looked really good at Joe Piane, Virginia has shown promise this fall and EKU was much better at their conference meet than some people realize.
Even Furman and Duke could make things interesting and shouldn't be counted out!
Naturally, one can see why we have no idea what to expect from this region.
Scotty: I’ll take the wild, wild West region. Evaluating this region produces more questions than answers in my opinion. Let’s fire some off, shall we?
How will California Baptist fare in their first regional meet at the Division One level? The Lancers have impressed in a series of mid-sized meets against admirable teams, but they now enter a modern-day Roman Colosseum of competitors.
Washington has been better as of late than they were in September, but will Andy Powell’s squad peak like they did on the outdoor track last spring? The Huskies have more talent than any team in this region outside of Stanford, but they have yet to crack the code on translating that middle distance prowess to the grass.
Could Cal Poly realistically make it to the national meet? I can’t believe this is a legitimate possibility, and while it’s not necessarily likely, the Mustangs have already had a few inspiring performances this year, mainly their 7th place finish at Joe Piane.
So who’s to say that they don’t have one more great race in their legs?
Lastly, among other questions, could James Mwaura return to his elite form and challenge Aaron Bienenfield as well as Stanford’s elite trio of Ky Robinson, Cole Sprout and Charles Hicks? If he’s able to do that, then he could give Gonzaga the scoring spark that they need to earn an at-large bid to the national meet.
Gavin: The Mountain region screams chaos.
The usual suspects — BYU, NAU, Colorado and Air Force — should be safe, but a host of other Mountain West and BIG Sky programs will be trying desperately to upend each other.
Montana State feels like a fairly safe bet, but the Bobcats are new to this level of success and don’t have a ton of room for error. After them, it’s anyone’s guess as to who gets in. A trio of solid programs — Utah State, Colorado State and Wyoming — all have a shot of advancing to the national meet, but all of them won’t get in.
Can someone get ahead of Montana State and get pushed in? Otherwise, there may “only” be six teams making it out of the Intermountain West, and these three programs epitomize the region like no other.
Maura: The Great Lakes region features many BIG 10 teams that faced off two weeks ago, as well as Notre Dame and Toledo.
The Fighting Irish are the heavy favorites. Heck, just look at how close they came to beating NC State at the ACC XC Championships! However, the real race is for 2nd place, a spot that is favored, but not exactly guaranteed, to go to Toledo.
The Rockets looked phenomenal at Nuttycombe and this larger Great Lakes field could theoretically benefit them like it did in mid-October. However, at the same time, we've seen Toledo become very vulnerable in certain races this season, leaving us to wonder which version of this team we will see on Friday.
And then there's Michigan State who were the somewhat surprising champions at the BIG 10 XC Championships over Michigan and Wisconsin. The Wolverines and Badgers, as well as Ohio State Buckeyes, weren’t too far behind and all three of those teams will likely want to challenge the Spartans.
For Michigan to finish 2nd place and earn the other auto-lock spot, they will need Ericka VanderLende to replicate her runner-up conference meet performance, as well as get some consistency from the rest of her scoring lineup.
For Wisconsin, they need to decrease their top-five time-spread and get their fourth and fifth runners closer to the front.
And for Ohio State, Addie Engel gives this team a solid low-stick, and there are other top-tier front-runners on this team, but a fifth runner will be needed to catapult the Buckeyes ahead of their competition.
The Great Lakes region could see numerous teams receive at-large bids, and we don't know if the order will matter too much, but it will still be plenty volatile.
Scotty: As much as I’d like to pick another region, Maura is right about the Great Lakes, and I don’t think any other region is even close to the same level of volatility.
After Notre Dame, the next five best teams of (in no particular order) Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State and Toledo could realistically finish in any order.
And fortunately for them, most Kolas scenarios would result in all five of those teams qualifying for the NCAA XC Championships as long as they aren’t upset by Indiana, Butler or another Great Lakes squad.
Gavin: I'll say that it's the Mountain region on the women’s side.
Beyond qualifying, I’m interested in seeing how this horde of elite teams shakes out in the team results while gauging how much stock we should put into the actual order of a meet where the top teams are simply focused on advancing to the national meet.
There are five teams in the top-11 of our TSR rankings in this region alone and two more teams listed in the top-25. New Mexico, NAU and BYU should be the top group, but can one of the PAC-12 powerhouses (Colorado and Utah) mix up the hierarchy? Are the Lobos infallible?
Like in the men’s race, all five programs should get into the national meet comfortably, whether as auto-qualifiers or as at-large teams. However, that next tier has a handful of national meet hopefuls that are all about at the same level — Colorado State, Utah Valley, Utah State and Wyoming.
Most likely, at least half of that smaller group will find themselves on the outside looking in.
There’s no way that the Mountain region qualifies eight women’s teams...right?
Maura: On the women’s side, from the Midwest regional meet, Illinois could find themselves punching their ticket to the NCAA XC Championships if they finish 3rd behind Oklahoma State and Northwestern.
However, the Illini would need to beat Iowa State, a team that is fairly similar to them in terms of scoring structure.
Illinois didn’t have a great showing at the BIG 10 XC Championships, fading to 9th behind two regional foes in Northwestern and Minnesota. Even so, they are clearly talented enough to battle for the 3rd place spot in this region.
These women will need three things to occur to receive an at-large bid. 1) Channel their performances from the Bradley Pink Classic, 2) have Olivia Howell finish amongst the top-five, and 3) rely on Iowa State and Minnesota faltering.
If the rest of the regional predictions match up to our expectations, then the Illini women should be able to get in.
Scotty: Stemming from my answer to the first question, I’m sure someone is wondering: “How did you get seven men’s teams from the West region into the national meet? Who did you bribe and how much did you pay them to tweak the points?”
In short, the Great Lakes region will play a large role in both the at-large bids that we could see in the West region and the Southeast region. Here are two Kolas scenarios to contrast:
Scenario One:
The Great Lakes region standings become 1) Notre Dame, 2) Wisconsin, 3) Michigan, 4) Michigan State, 5) Butler.
The West region standings are 1) Stanford, 2) Oregon, 3) CBU, 4) Portland, 5) Cal Poly, 6) Washington, 7) Gonzaga.
In this scenario, five teams from the Great Lakes region get in and only four teams from the West region make it. Virginia, NC State and Charlotte earn bids from the Southeast region.
Scenario Two:
Let's assume that all of the regions have the same orders that we showed in Scenario One, except we tweak the Great Lakes region to look like this...
1) Wisconsin, 2) Notre Dame, 3) Butler, 4) Michigan, 5) Michigan State.
Under this scenario, only four teams from the Great Lakes qualify and SEVEN teams from the West region punch their ticket to the national meet.
Virginia, NC State and Charlotte would all fail to advance out of the Southeast region.
Due to the Great Lakes region’s makeup of BIG 10, BIG East and ACC powerhouses, it lends itself to creating chaotic scenarios for teams competing across the country whose paths cross with each during the regular season.
Gavin: The potential for the strangest Kolas outcome probably arises in the Southeast region which is quietly setting up to be one of the deeper regions on the men’s side.
There are a few stalwarts among these programs, but there's also as many as nine competent teams who are capable of holding their own at the national meet.
The below scenario is almost entirely contingent upon one of the best teams in this region, North Carolina, heavily faltering. However, they may not go full bore on Friday given the amount of wiggle room they have, as this example illustrates...
This outcome has Wake Forest winning the Southeast region, followed by Virginia, NC State and Charlotte (in that order), all teams capable of beating the Tar Heels on their best day, although UNC would need to have an "off" day in their own right.
This scenario also has Eastern Kentucky toppling the Tar Heels which is a more plausible outcome than one may think. Or at least, it's as plausible as UNC losing to the other three aforementioned teams.
The Colonels have already defeated solid teams this fall like Ole Miss and Cal Poly at the Panorama Farms XC23 Invitational, and that was accomplished without steeplechase national champion, Ahmed Jaziri! EKU also won the ASUN Championships handily with him leading the way.
That's why it’s not out of the question that the Eastern Kentucky men could contend with, or even beat, a North Carolina team that would have to have a fairly bad race.
The Tar Heels would have to really let off the gas or seriously struggle for all of that to happen. But if that scenario were to play out, then we could see as many as six teams from the Southeast region advance to the national meet.