Kolas Projections (Men): FINAL

A big thank you to Bo Waggoner for working with us in order to utilize his XC Quals site!

Welp, the regional results are in.

Let's cut the chit-chat and get to what you all want.

Here are the 31 men's teams that we have qualifying for Nationals...

Great Lakes

1. Purdue

2. Notre Dame

Mid-Atlantic

1. Villanova

2. Georgetown

Midwest

1. Tulsa

2. Iowa State

Mountain

1. Northern Arizona

2. Colorado

Northeast

1. Harvard

2. Syracuse

South

1. Ole Miss

2. Middle Tennessee State

South Central

1. Texas

2. Arkansas

Southeast

1. Virginia

2. Virginia Tech

West

1. Portland

2. Stanford

PLEASE NOTE: A Kolas caveat in the rule book mentioned by LetsRun suggests that the projections could change depending on how the NCAA selection committee interprets NC State's DNF result at the Nuttycombe Invite. If that DNF were to count towards Kolas qualifying, our projections would have changed.

However, we do not believe that the DNF will be taken into consideration.

Oregon, Indiana, and BYU are all tied for the first at-large bid with 8 points. There are actually a handful of other teams who have the same amount of points or more points than them such as UCLA (9) and Wisconsin (8), but those teams aren't yet eligible to be selected.

Oregon beat BYU at Bill Dellinger earlier in the season, so BYU won't get this at-large bid.

Indiana beat Oregon at Nuttycombe earlier in the season. In theory, this means that Indiana will get the first at-large bid.

However, Indiana finished 4th behind Michigan in their region. In order to avoid a push scenario, we'll wait until Michigan qualifies (since we know that Indiana will qualify on their own later on).

As a result, this leaves Oregon receiving the first at-large bid.

They gives one point to Indiana, Wisconsin, and UCLA.

Indiana is still waiting to be selected, so we'll now choose the BYU Cougars who have the next most Kolas points (8).

They do not give away any Kolas points.

The next two eligible teams are Boise State and Michigan. Both have 7 points.

Since Michigan beat Boise State at Nuttycombe, we will give this spot to Michigan.

The Wolverines give out a ton of points. They give one point to UCLA and NC State. They also give two points to Wisconsin. Finally, Michigan gives three points to Indiana.

The Indiana Hoosiers are the next eligible team with the most Kolas points (12). They are now selected to go to Nationals.

With Indiana now qualified, they give one point to UCLA, Wisconsin, and NC State.

The Wisconsin Badgers now have the next most Kolas points (12) and will be selected to go to Nationals.

They give one point to UCLA and NC State.

The next team to qualify would theoretically be the Boise State men (who have 7 points). However, the Washington men finished ahead of them in their region and have not yet qualified. Since we want to avoid a push scenario, and we know that Boise State will qualify on their own later in the selection process, we will skip them for now.

This means that the NC State men are the next team selected to go to Nationals. They have 6 points.

The Wolfpack give one point to Wake Forest, Duke, and Florida State.

This is where things get crazy. Utah State, Florida State, Washington, and Furman are the next eligible teams to be selected. They all have 5 points.

Furman lost to Utah State at Nuttycombe, so the Paladins will not be selected.

Florida State lost to Washington at Pre-Nats, so the Seminoles will not be selected.

This leaves us with Utah State and Washington in a tie. These teams haven't raced against each other this season, so we must compare their common opponents.

Utah State has beaten more of their common opponents than Washington has, 56.2% to 52.6%.

Therefore, Utah State is selected to go to Nationals.

The Aggies give one point to UCLA, Boise State, and Southern Utah.

This leaves us with Washington as the next team to be selected with a total of 5 points (we already went through all of those tie-breaking scenarios in the step above).

Washington gives one point to UCLA and Iona. They do not give any points to Stony Brook or Army who beat them at Beantown since Washington technically ran an "B" lineup there.

With Washington now out of the way, we can finally select the Boise State Broncos. They have a total of 8 points.

They give one point to Colorado State and Wyoming. They also give two points to UCLA.

Furman, Florida State, and Iona are all tied for the next spot with 5 points.

Florida State will not be selected since they lost to Iona at Pre-Nats.

This leaves us with Iona and Furman having to compare their common opponents.

 As a result, Furman edges out Iona with a higher win percentage (75% to 62.5%).

Furman gives one point to Southern Utah, Gonzaga, and Princeton. They also give two points to UCLA. The Bruins are still ineligible to qualify.

We now have four teams tied at 5 points: Iona, Florida State, Princeton, and Gonzaga.

Gonzaga lost to Florida State at Joe Piane, so Gonzaga is not selected.

Florida State lost to Iona at Pre-Nats, so Florida State is not selected.

Princeton lost to Gonzaga at Nuttycombe, so Princeton is not selected.

This leaves us with Iona as the only team who hasn't to one of these teams. As a result, the Gaels are then selected to go to Nationals.

Iona does not give away any Kolas points.

We now have three teams tied at 5 points: Florida State, Princeton, and Gonzaga.

Princeton lost to Gonzaga at Nuttycombe, so Princeton is not selected.

Gonzaga lost to Florida State at Joe Piane, so Gonzaga is not selected.

This leaves us with Florida State as the next team selected. However, since Alabama beat Florida State in the South region, that means that Florida State must push Alabama into the national meet.

 As a result, Alabama and Florida State take the final two spots to Nationals.

Florida State gives one point to Wake Forest and Eastern Kentucky.

Since Alabama was pushed in, they do not give away any Kolas points.

Princeton and Gonzaga are tied at 5 points.

Since Gonzaga beat Princeton at Nuttycombe, this means that the Bulldogs are the First Team Out.