First Thoughts: Hokie Invitational & Tulsa's 3k Assault

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There are plenty of entertaining meets taking place this weekend (many of which are wrapping up as we publish this), but we already have a handful of strong results that we need to chat about. Today's analysis won't be super long, but we certainly weren't going to leave you without any content.

Let's not waste any more time and jump right in...

Virginia Tech superstar and the reigning indoor 800 meter national champion opened up her 2023 winter campaign with a 3k personal best last week. However, we didn't entirely know what her turnover and speed would look like after sustaining an injury last spring and not contesting a middle distance race since then.

But Butler toed the line for the women's 1000 meter race on her home track this past Friday to take on a loaded field which featured numerous middle distance standouts. And the Hokie veteran didn't just look like she was back at the peak of her fitness, she looked like she was maybe in the best shape of her career.

The Virginia Tech veteran threw down a monster time of 2:42.32 last night, a personal best by over a second! At the time of publication, that mark now sits at NCAA #12 all-time in the women's 1000 meters (on eligible 200 meter tracks).

We had every reason to believe that Butler was fit going into this race, but this kind of result forces us to ask, "Is she in better shape than she was last winter?" And if the answer to that question is "yes," then it will be hard to pick anyone other than her for the indoor national title over 800 meters come March.

And yes, that includes the 1:59 freshman duo from Stanford (Whittaker and Willis).

But it's not just the time that impressed us. There were a handful of extremely talented middle distance runners in this race who Butler defeated, all of whom ran incredibly well.

Former Virginia Tech runner and current TrackSmith pro Lauren Berman was the runner-up finisher in a time of 2:43. Behind her, Georgetown ace Melissa Riggins also ran 2:43 while Virginia Tech's Hannah Ballowe ran 2:44, NC State's Sam Bush ran 2:45 and Virginia Tech's Ava Hassebrock also ran 2:45.

For Riggins, this time is just slightly off of her personal best (by a few milliseconds), but it's still an encouraging start to her season. She has made tremendous progress over the last year and seeing her take down the likes of Ballowe, Bush, Hassebrock and Jensen is impressive.

Last winter, Riggins ran 2:43 (1k) at this same exact meet, but never fully translated that kind of fitness to the 800 meters. Her fastest half-mile time on the indoor oval last year was 2:05. But after running 2:03 in the spring and making a clear jump up in her fitness, it feels like Riggins could not only qualify for the NCAA Indoor Championships this year, but maybe even emerge as a legitimate All-American threat.

I suppose time will tell...

Hannah Ballowe has been an underappreciated middle distance talent who has run 2:04 for 800 meters before. And although she has had a moments of inconsistency, the Virginia Tech ace has seemingly always thrived in the 1000 meters.

Much like Riggins, this Hokie middle distance standout was able to effectively match her 1000 meter personal best on Friday night by running 2:44. In theory, that should put her in contention to run somewhere around 2:03 or 2:04 over 800 meters this season. And if that happens, then Ballowe could sneak into the national meet.

I feel extremely confident that Ballowe can be a nationally competitive name outside of the 1000 meters. If she can simply build some momentum, stack fitness and translate this kind of performance to events like the 800 meters and the mile, then she'll likely be joining Butler on the national stage.

On paper, she's due for a major breakout performance.

Before we move to Sam Bush, let's stay with the women in Blacksburg, Virginia and chat about Ava Hassebrock, a sophomore by eligibility who looks like she's going to be (or can be) the Hokies' next middle distance star.

Despite being listed as a sophomore by eligibility, Hassebrock is not at all an inexperienced youngster. She actually graduated high school in 2019. But between COVID and a presumed redshirt year, this Virginia native is only in her second indoor track season at the collegiate level.

This rising Hokie talent is slowly improving and quietly building a respectable resume. She has run 4:19 for 1500 meters and 4:41 in the mile. Sure, her half-mile PR sits at "only" 2:09, but that mark is due to come down significantly after running 2:45 over 1000 meters.

Hassebrock's upwards trajectory is incredibly encouraging. And given the middle distance history of this Virginia Tech program, it's hard to see how she's not going to be a major factor in the ACC over the next few seasons -- maybe as soon as this winter.

A lot of people view former Virginia Tech coach Ben Thomas as a major driver behind this team's middle distance success -- and rightfully so. Thomas was ultimately the reason why this program has become a major force over the 800 meters, the 1000 meters and the mile.

But current Hokie distance coach Eric Johannigmeier deserves some massive respect. The former distance assistant coach has done a fantastic job over the last few seasons in terms of sustaining the excellent results that we saw from the Virginia Tech men and women just a few years back.

And with three runners at 2:45 (1k) or faster so far this winter, the 2023 indoor track season may be his job yet in terms of developing his middle distance women.

We wrap up this section with NC State's Sam Bush. She finished 5th place overall (fourth among collegiates) with a time of 2:45, two seconds off of her personal best.

There's truthfully not a whole lot to take analyze when it comes to this result. Sure, Bush had the potential to run a little bit faster, but a 2:45 mark is still very solid. And for someone who is more of a 3k specialist, this is still a nice display of turnover.

Good news: I accurately predicted that Georgetown's Matthew Payamps would win the men's 1000 meters at the Hokie Invitational in a time of 2:20.

Bad news: I severely underestimated both Jesse Hunt of North Carolina and the overall depth that we would see in this event.

Without a live feed, it's hard to know how this race played out, but based on the splits, it looks like Payamps followed his pacers throughout the entirety of the race. He put himself at the front and never really faltered from that position.

But Tar Heel veteran Jesse Hunt was never that far off from Payamps throughout the entire race. The splits suggest that he was seemingly a stride or two behind the Georgetown star for throughout the 1000 meter distance.

For Payamps, this is yet another step in the right direction. It's a fast time and an overall win, but at this point in his career, that is hardly a surprising development in a field such as this. The goal now is for this Hoya ace to translate this success to more competitive fields on a consistent basis.

And after a year of racing against the best men in the country, Payamps should now have the necessary experience to be a legitimate All-American threat...I think.

As for Hunt, I love how this race played out for him. He didn't relent off the pace, didn't appear to be rattled by the Georgetown presence in this race (at least based on the splits) and just threw down one of the fastest overall times of his career.

Running 2:20 is no joke and it makes me wonder what Hunt can do in his primary event (the mile) later this winter. I also can't help but wonder what North Carolina's DMR could look like in February and potentially March. They do, after all, have another sub-four miler on their roster now (but more on that in a moment).

Hunt is super talented and has run 3:39 for 1500 meters before. But does a 2:20 (1k) mark suggest that he can run 3:55 or 3:56 low in the mile? That's likely going to be what it takes for this UNC veteran to advance to the indoor national meet. And while that is certainly possible for this Aussie ace, that would also require a significant jump.

Georgetown's Matthew Rizzo, NC State's Gavin Gaynor (unattached), Duke's Beck Wittstadt and Georgetown's Abel Teffra all ran 2:21 between the first and second heats. One of these men is going to have a true breakout race in the mile or the 800 meters over the next few weeks...I just don't know who.

Rizzo is the most accomplished of this group given his 1:49 (800), 3:39 (1500) and 3:58 (mile) personal bests, but does this result suggest that he has more in him? Wittstadt was maybe the biggest surprise of this trio, but maybe we should have seen this coming after he ran 1:48 (800) at the tail-end of last spring. Teffra has already proven to be a competitive name on the east coast with times of 1:48 (800) and 3:59 (mile), but based on his youth, it's unlikely that he has reached his ceiling yet.

We should also note that Arlo Ludewick (Virginia Tech), Jack Salisbury (unattached), Lucas Guerra (Georgetown) also ran 2:22 on Friday night. Keep an eye on Ludewick and Guerra. The former appears to be brand new to the NCAA while Guerra is still fairly young with tons of upside.

One of the most predictable races of the Hokie Invitational was the women's mile. Going into the race, the North Carolina trio of Taryn Parks, Brynn Brown and Carlee Hansen were viewed as the collective favorites.

Georgetown's Andrea Claeson, a graduate transfer from Boston University, was expected to be a contender, but was also the clear fourth-best miler in this field.

And sure enough, the results were roughly what we expected. Yes, I did predict that Brown would take home the overall win, but I also said that any one of those three UNC women could secure gold. In this case, it was Parks who ran 4:38 (a time which I did predict) for a fairly comfortable win.

In retrospect, it makes sense that Parks won this race in the time that she did. She was the most refined and complete miler in this field and she actually won the ACC indoor mile title on this exact same track last winter. On paper, a lot was going in her favor.

I'll admit, I did think that Brown (3rd) was going to run a bit faster than 4:41. The same can be said for teammate Carlee Hansen who was the runner-up finisher, also in a time of 4:41.

Brown is coming off of a fantastic cross country season. Sure, she didn't end her fall campaign as an All-American, but she was two spots off from doing so and was a clear-cut low-stick for this team all season long. And after running 15:43 for 5000 meters back in December, I felt fairly comfortable that this Texas native would at least run under 4:40 on Friday night.

Is a 4:41 mile time in mid-ish-January a concern? No, not even in the slightest bit, especially not in a smaller field that was dominated by her UNC teammates. I just thought that something a bit faster would help with a potential 3k effort in the future.

As for everyone else, Hansen held her own, but is capable of running faster. The same can be said for Claeson who is just coming back to competition after not racing since last spring.

But let's not forget, the Tar Heel women seemingly post their best times and performances in the postseason. Over the past year, they have developed a history of peaking at the right time. And I imagine that we'll see more of the same moving forward.

There was no doubt in my mind that North Carolina's Ethan Strand was eventually going to run under the four-minute barrier in the mile. He had run 4:01 in the mile last winter as a freshman and just finished 62nd at the NCAA XC Championships this past fall.

I just didn't know when he would actually do it.

Well, as it turns out, Strand's time for a sub-four mile came on Friday night. The rising Tar Heel ace ran 3:59.83 directly behind a sub-four mile effort from former Binghamton runner and current Zap Endurance pro, Dan Schaffer.

Strand's emergence as a sub-four miler couldn't have come at a better time. Veteran teammate Jesse Hunt is in the last year of his eligibility and Kyle Reinheimer owns a 1:48 personal best over 800 meters. On paper, that could lead to the Tar Heels having a scary DMR lineup this winter.

And don't forget, Coach Chris Miltenberg wasn't afraid to go all-in for a DMR in the winter of 2021. That year, the North Carolina men finished 4th overall at the NCAA Indoor Championships, running a time of 9:25 in one of the fastest collegiate DMR races ever.

Strand still needs to develop further and drop his mile PR down a second or two if UNC is going to truly contend for an All-American spot in March. But seeing this Alabama native emerge as a competitive miler seems to coincide well with the current state of this roster.

And if a true sophomore is able to do this in mid-to-late January, then what can a high-upside talent like Strand do a month from now? Guys like him are often fairly dangerous...

As for everyone else, I have to admit, I was SUPER unsurprised by the rest of these results. The NC State duo of Ian Harrison and Brett Gardner each ran a pair of 4:01 marks while the Virginia Tech duo of Declan Rymer (shoutout Downingtown) and Viktor Idhammar ran 4:01 and 4:03, respectively.

I don't wanna brag (that's not true, I definitely wanna brag), but here were my predictions for this men's mile race (collegiates only)...

And here were the actual results...

Here's also what I said about that Virginia Tech duo...

"I'm really looking forward to seeing Viktor Idhammar and Declan Rymer toe the line in the mile this weekend. They both ran 2:23 for 1000 meters last week and could be due for a big performance. Both of these young distance talents have made tremendous progress over the last year and could surprise a lot of people...who don't read The Stride Report, of course."

This may not have been my most perfect set of predictions ever, but I thought these picks were still pretty darn good if I do say so myself.

This race was not held in Blacksburg, Virginia.

Instead, it took place at a campus that was 12 and a half hours away from Virginia Tech.

At the Larry Wieczorek Invitational, a meet hosted by the University of Iowa, the Tulsa men opted to crowd the 3000 meter field and go for an all-out assault on the event.

The results? Very impressive.

In the fastest heat, the Tulsa men had Scott Beattie (7:50), Michael Power (7:50), Isaac Akers (7:54) and Cormac Dalton (7:59) all run under 8:00 on Friday night. The Golden Hurricanes proceeded to put five more men under the 8:10 barrier.

Having four men under 8:00 over 3000 meters in the same race is extremely impressive, especially when two of those guys run a pair of 7:50 marks. And if this contingent of long distance talents are able to run this well in January, what can they do a month from now? And what could they do over 5000 meters where I imagine most of these men are likely at their best?

Tulsa's overall depth deserves respect. They have been killing it in the very early portions of this indoor track season. Beattie and Power will still need to run faster if they want to advance to the national meet, but their past performances indicate that they can/will run faster over the next five-ish weeks.

Oh, and for perspective, here are all of the programs that had four or more men run under 8:00 for 3000 meters during the 2022 indoor track season...

That's some very good company to be in.