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  • SEC Championship Preview

    Men's Preview Teams Unlike last year, the race for the SEC title is not very complicated. The Ole Miss men should run away with their second consecutive conference title. With top competitors like Alabama and Arkansas not looking as strong as they have in year’s past, the Rebels have the inside track to the top podium this year. The real race will be for runner-up and then after that, it will be a battle to see who can earn 4th. Ole Miss have been impressive this regular season, starting off with their 2nd place run at the Joe Piane Invitational. Behind their strong top five, the Rebels beat teams such as NC State, Purdue, and Notre Dame. They backed up their performance with a 5th place showing at Pre-Nationals, running behind Washington and Iona. Like last year, Waleed Suliman has been a consistent low-stick while teammates Farah Abdulkarim and Cade Bethmann have done well to support their junior leader. Mario Garcia Romo and Parker Scott have been solid contributors and have kept Ole Miss’ top five spread impressively low. It wouldn’t be surprising to see all five of these runners within the top 10 at SEC’s en route to a dominating win. The most interesting team coming into SEC’s is the Alabama Crimson Tide, mainly because we have yet to see them at full strength. Vincent Kiprop and Gilbert Kigen were dominant at the Joe Piane Invitational and will be the favorites to finish 1-2 at SEC's, but the rest of their lineup was not up to par. We did, however see Noel Rotich recently make his season debut as he finished 12th at the Princeton Cross Country Invitational. Additionally, James Brinyark seems to have bounced back after his Joe Piane race to finish 33rd in the same race. Admittedly, the rest of the lineup is still a little shaky as we have yet to see Eliud Kipsang race this year. For the Crimson Tide to have any hope of qualifying for NCAA's this year, they will need to see some massive improvements from their 3-4-5 men. With a chance to pick up a Kolas point against Arkansas and build some momentum going into a strong South region, Alabama needs to capitalize on this moment. If Rotich can support Kiprop and Kigen, then they should have enough to beat Arkansas. In what appears to be a rebuilding year, Arkansas has been led by Matt Young at both the Chili Pepper Festival and Pre-Nationals. The junior from Oklahoma ran well at Pre-Nationals, earning a 30th place finish and leading the Razorbacks to a 13th place finish. The rest of the roster was far behind in Terre Haute. Carter Persyn was 89th while Jayce Turner and Preston Cates finished 97th and 100th, respectively. Without Gilbert Boit, who appears to be redshirting this season, the Razorbacks will struggle to compete at SEC’s like they are accustomed to. This is still a team that will likely qualify for NCAA's out of the South Central region, but in order to beat Alabama, they will need to pack up their entire top five in front of the Crimson Tide’s #4 runner. Even then, it might not be enough as Alabama will have a substantial lead through their first three runners. For freshmen Jayce Turner and Myles Richter, this will be a good opportunity for them to gain some postseason experience. How well they adapt to the race situation could be the difference between Arkansas finishing 2nd or 3rd. Behind these three squads are a host of teams who could lock down the 4th spot. The Arturo Barrios Invitational gave us a good look at a few of these teams as Texas A&M beat Florida and Tennessee by over 25 points. Led by Eric Casarez, the Aggies go six strong in their depth and should be the favorites to finish 4th. The Kentucky Wildcats could spoil the party, though. Led by Brennan Fields who was 43rd at Pre-Nationals, Kentucky admittedly struggled in that meet, but they have a lot of talent returning from a team that finished 3rd at SEC's last year. Texas A&M’s current form and momentum gives them the edge, but the Wildcats will be right on their tail. Individuals The Crimson Tide duo will take the race out hard and likely lead wire-to-wire; they are clearly the class of the field. The race for 3rd will be an interesting matchup between Ole Miss’ top three and Arkansas’ Matt Young. I give the edge to Suliman, but Young may be able to compete with Bethmann and Abdulkarim. Either way, the Ole Miss pack should dominate the top 10. A few names to keep an eye out for in the front pack: Eric Casarez of Texas A&M, Stephen Jones of Mississippi State, and Thomas George of Missouri. Casarez is coming off an impressive 6th place performance at Arturo Barrios where he finished right behind MTSU’s Hillary Kimaiyo. After winning the UAB Blazer Classic, Jones has the momentum and the talent to run with this top group and possibly earn a top 10 finish. George was 12th at SEC's last year and is coming off a solid run at Nuttycombe that saw him finish 73rd. Men's Predictions Team 1. Ole Miss 2. Alabama 3. Arkansas 4. Texas A&M 5. Kentucky 6. Florida 7. Tennessee 8. Vanderbilt 9. Georgia 10. Missouri 11. Mississippi State 12. LSU 13. Auburn Individuals 1. Vincent Kiprop (Alabama) 2. Gilbert Kigen (Alabama) 3. Waleed Suliman (Ole Miss) 4. Farah Abdulkarim (Ole Miss) 5. Cade Bethmann (Ole Miss) 6. Matt Young (Arkansas) 7. Mario Garcia Romo (Ole Miss) 8. Parker Scott (Ole Miss) 9. Thomas George (Missouri) 10. Eric Casarez (Texas A&M) 11. Stephen Jones (Miss State) 12. Noel Rotich (Alabama) 13. Brennan Fields (Kentucky) 14. Sam Bowers (Georgia) 15. Alex Crigger (Tennessee) 16. Nick Lanning (Vanderbilt) 17. Colin Schaefer (Florida) 18. Eric Coston (LSU) 19. Carter Persyn (Arkansas) 20. Jayce Turner (Arkansas) Women's Preview Teams In a lot of ways, the women’s race mirrors the men’s. There is a clear favorite as well as top contender for the runner-up position. The race for 3rd, though, could be a doozy. After a dominating performance at SEC’s in 2018, it should be much of the same this year for the Razorbacks. The rest of the conference around them has changed up, so it will be a tight race for 3rd, but Arkansas, our number one team in the country, looks like a lock to take home yet another SEC title. Let’s take quick look at the best team in the country. Arkansas could conceivably score even less than the 24 points they scored last year with Taylor Werner leading the way. Werner, Katie Izzo, Devin Clark, and Carina Viljoen have formed a potent top four with Lauren Gregory closing the gap as she regains her 2018 form. The Razorbacks could rest one or two of their top five and still win the title. The end of the world notwithstanding, Arkansas will dominate the field to pick up yet another conference championship title. The Ole Miss women started out the season strong, showing off some impressive depth at the Commodore Classic. With the possibility of adding some front-runners to the team, the Rebels looked like they could be a top 20 team this year. Alas, that has not happened, and consequently the team has finished 10th at both Joe Piane and Pre-Nationals. Still, this is a team with a strong top five that can pack up and run together at SEC's. Madeleine King, Victoria Simmons, Anna Elkin, Skyler Boogerd, and Lisa Vogelgesang should all be within the top 25 and land the Rebels a runner-up finish. Now for the intriguing and dramatic part of the race. The run for 3rd. Florida, Missouri, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Tennessee all have a chance at earning a moral victory. Ole Miss is the favorite for 2nd, but these teams could all make the most of their opportunity if the Rebels slip up. The fact that we are not sure if Florida can finish 3rd is surprising considering how highly we thought of the Gators coming into the season. After a 2nd place run at SEC's and a 16th place finish at NCAA's last year, it seemed like Jessica Pascoe and Florida were headed for another great season. Pascoe has been a stud like she was last year, but the rest of the roster hasn’t run as well as they did 365 days ago. Their last race at Arturo Barrios was representative of their season. Pascoe won, but the rest of the top five finished 22nd, 31st, 36th, and 37th which pushed the Gators back to 3rd, narrowly edging out Texas A&M. For Florida to take down the rest of their competition for the team bronze, they will need at least two of their top five to step up and give Pascoe more support. They were able to do it last year, so it will be interesting to see if Coach Solinsky’s squad can pull off another top three SEC finish. The team that has flown under the radar despite solid races all year is the women of Tennessee. The Volunteers most recently finished 3rd at the Penn State National Open behind Penn State and Georgia Tech, but were ahead of Princeton and Penn. This performance wasn’t surprising as a few weeks earlier, they had finished 4th at Paul Short, beating Georgetown in the process. Sydney Seymour has led the way for a team that is one of the favorites to surprise Ole Miss. While they haven’t run in any large meets like Pre-Nationals and Nuttycombe, they have run at a bunch of solid, mid-tier meets which should set them up well for SEC’s. I like this Tennessee team to surprise a few people this weekend and at the South Regional Championships in two weeks. The other team who could beat Ole Miss is Missouri who is coming off of a strong 20th place showing at Nuttycombe. Sarah Chapman leads the Tigers and is supported by seniors Jordyn Kleve and Melissa Menghini. Earlier in the season, Mizzou took down Vanderbilt and Georgia at the Commodore Classic, but were beaten soundly by Ole Miss. In a smaller meet like SEC's, the Tigers need to make sure that, just like they did at Nuttycombe, their #4 and #5 runners do not stray too far behind their top three. With Menghini running better at Nuttycombe than she did at Commodore, this is a team that will be much improved since their early season test against the Rebels. How about Texas A&M who narrowly lost to Florida on their home course? The Lady Aggies, led by seniors Kelsie Warren and Ashley Driscoll, only lost to the Gators by four points and will certainly go into this meet feeling like they can beat them. With their strong top two, the key for A&M is to ensure that their 3-4-5 can close the gap behind their scoring duo. If they can match up with Tennessee and Florida’s #4 and #5 women, then they will have a shot at pulling off the upset. Either way, Warren and Driscoll should at least give the Aggies a chance to finish in the top four. Next up is Georgia. The Bulldogs came into this season with high hopes of qualifying for NCAA's this year, but the season has not gone to plan so far. They were 4th in the SEC last year right behind Ole Miss, but it will be a struggle for them to repeat last year’s performance. At Pre-Nationals, Georgia finished 28th with Jessica Drop coming in at 27th. Unfortunately, Samantha Drop DNF’d while the rest of the Bulldogs finished far behind. If we see both Drop sisters at SEC's, then Georgia certainly has a chance to make things interesting, but without both of them, they will struggle to finish in the top six. Two other teams to watch out for is Vanderbilt and Kentucky who finished 15th and 18th, respectively at Pre-Nationals. Both sides could surprise any of these teams mentioned above if anyone slips up. Lastly, Alabama has a strong top three and finished one spot behind Kentucky at Pre-Nationals. With an improved performance from their final two scoring women, they are poised to move into the top six. Individuals The individual race should be a fun one to watch. Werner is a top five runner in the country, but Pascoe has been dominant so far this year. Add in Auburn’s Joyce Kimeli who has run incredibly well in high-profile meets, and it all points to an all-out battle to determine the top three. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Arkansas’ top five pack up and dictate the terms of the race. How Ole Miss’ pack responds to Arkansas will be fascinating to witness. If they go out to hard trying to keep up with the Razorbacks, then we could see the Rebels get caught by one of their many challengers. With so many competitive teams, there will be plenty of competition for those All-Conference honors. Women's Predictions Teams 1. Arkansas 2. Ole Miss 3. Missouri 4. Tennessee 5. Florida 6. Texas A&M 7. Vanderbilt 8. Alabama 9. Georgia 10. Kentucky 11. LSU 12. Auburn 13. Miss State 14. South Carolina Individuals 1. Taylor Werner (Arkansas) 2. Jessica Pascoe (Florida) 3. Joyce Kimeli (Auburn) 4. Katie Izzo (Arkansas) 5. Devin Clark (Arkansas) 6. Carina Viljoen (Arkansas) 7. Jessica Drop (Georgia) 8. Lauren Gregory (Arkansas) 9. Mercy Chelangat (Alabama) 10. Madeleine King (Ole Miss) 11. Sydney Seymour (Tennessee) 12. Sarah Chapman (Missouri) 13. Kelsie Warren (Texas A&M) 14. Rebecca Buteau (Alabama) 15. Ashley Driscoll (Texas A&M) 16. Katy Ann-McDonald (LSU) 17. Allison Wilson (Alabama) 18. Grace Jensen (Vanderbilt) 19. Victoria Simmons (Ole Miss) 20. Perri Bockrath (Kentucky)

  • Mountain West Championship Preview

    The Mountain West conference often acts as a minor preview of how competitive the Mountain Regional Championships will be in two weeks time. This is an important meet for some teams because not only is a conference title on the line, but so are Kolas points which will help these squads potentially qualify for NCAA's. Men’s Preview Teams Boise State and Utah State are the top two teams to watch this weekend in Logan, Utah. The Broncos and Aggies last competed against one another at Nuttycombe where Boise State came out on top, beating Utah State by 27 points. The Aggies will most likely be looking to reverse that outcome on Friday, but it won’t be easy. Boise State is led by Ahmed Muhumed who last placed 23rd in Wisconsin. Muhumed has been closely followed by Miler Haller and Logan Rees, as there were only 17 seconds separating those three at Nuttycombe. If the Broncos want to win the team title, they will need their #4 and #5 runners to close the gap. Elijah Armstrong is very capable of finishing in the top 15 on Friday, he just needs to remain close to his teammates (of course, that's easier said than done). Utah State will challenge the Broncos for the win. The Aggies have quietly run very well this season, posting a 1st place finish at Paul Short and a 14th place finish at Nuttycombe. At both meets, the men of Utah State have averaged an underrated 20 second spread between their top five scorers. That pack-running should prove to be extremely valuable come Friday if the firepower of other teams doesn't entirely dictate the scoring. Luke Beattie and BYU graduate transfer Dallin Farnsworth are the team leaders and could vie for top five individual finishes if everything goes perfectly for them. Adam Hendrickson, James Withers, and Caleb Garnica aren't too far behind and at Nuttycombe, these three were well ahead of Boise State’s #5. The Air Force men were the third Mountain West team to score at Nuttycombe which ended in a 21st place result. Alec Schrank and Will Kitzhaber are a solid duo up front for the team, finishing only three seconds apart in Wisconsin. Right behind them, runners 3-4-5 came across the line and kept their time spread at only 10 seconds. Now, I know what you’re thinking. How can a team that is only separated by 10 seconds finish so far back in the team scoring? Well, the Falcons just don’t have a star individual up front who is capable of giving them much scoring potency. However, a 10 second spread could still help this team succeed in this uniquely structured field. Wyoming had a breakout year last fall and finished the 2018 cross country season with a 12th place finish at NCAA's. But 2019? Well, that's been a different story. A 13th place finish at Joe Piane and a 23rd place showing at Nuttycombe was not what we expected from Wyoming. Paul Roberts, who won the conference title last fall, was 25th at Joe Piane, but then ran to a 129th place finish at Nuttycombe. Instead, Henry Ewing led the team in Madison with a 65th place finish while Christopher Henry was 107th. The Cowboys will need to regain their composure before Friday if they want to prove that 2018 was not just a fluke. If the season ended today, Wyoming would almost certainly not be going to Nationals. It is important to note that whoever wins this conference title will earn some key Kolas points. Many of these top schools will compete against one another at the Mountain Regional Championships. Boise State, however, will go the West region. Individuals Muhumed of Boise State appears to be the favorite heading into the Mountain West Championships. The star Bronco was the 10th place finisher at Bill Dellinger Invite in late September and was more recently 23rd at Nuttycombe. At both of those meets, Muhumed took down some big names which should only give him confidence moving forward. Also for Boise State, Miler Haller is a great name to watch. Haller was 34th at Nuttycombe and was only six seconds behind Muhumed. Big things could happen for Haller this weekend if he puts all the right pieces together. He is historically very strong in the postseason and we don't expect that to change in 2019. Utah State’s Luke Beattie was the third Mountain West individual across the line at Nuttycombe, only 10 seconds behind Haller. Beattie has run well this season thus far. At Paul Short, he finished 6th and then backed up that performance up with a respectable 49th place finish in Madison. Dallin Farnsworth of Utah State, a graduate transfer from BYU, has acclimated well to the new location, team, and coaching philosophy. Farnsworth has been right behind Beattie this season and could slide up into the top five. Paul Roberts, last year’s Mountain West champion, will have his work cut out for him in Logan, Utah this weekend. The 2019 season hasn’t gone smoothly for Roberts and he will need to dig himself out of this rutt to compete with the top guys mentioned above. Men's Predictions Teams 1. Boise State 2. Utah State 3. Air Force 4. Wyoming 5. Colorado State Individuals 1. Ahmed Muhumed (Boise State) 2. Miler Haller (Boise State) 3. Luke Beattie (Utah State) 4. Dallin Farnsworth (Utah State) 5. Christopher Henry (Wyoming) 6. Logan Rees (Boise State) 7. Paul Roberts (Wyoming) 8. Adam Hendrickson (Utah State) 9. Henry Ewing (Wyoming) 10. Forest Barton (Colorado State) Women's Preview Teams It is going to be Boise State vs Air Force vs New Mexico on the women's side this Friday. Boise State has an excellent scoring pack, Air Force has two solid low-sticks, and New Mexico has Kelati, Kurgat, and (hopefully) Adva Cohen. When they toe the line, we'll get to see which lineup structure leads to the most success. The Broncos of Boise State put together a 7th place finish at Nuttycombe two weeks ago. Runners 1-2-3-4 had a spread of only 10 seconds and placed 40th (Clare O’Brien), 45th (Maxine Paholek), 51st (Olivia Johnson), and 55th (Yukino Parle). These four women create a very encouraging foundation for Boise State are are supported by respectable #5 and #6 options. At the Bill Dellinger Invitational in late September, the Air Force women came out strong and posted a 3rd place finish, beating out a handful of nationally ranked teams (but also losing to the Broncos). That meet put the Falcons on the radar to potentially take down Boise State later in the season...but instead, they went on to beat New Mexico. Two weeks ago, the Air Force Falcons were the second Mountain West team across the line at Nuttycombe, only 16 points behind Boise State and four points ahead of New Mexico. Mikayla Gallagher and Mahala Norris have proven to be two valuable front-runners for the Falcons and are providing key low points that we didn't initially expect to see from this team. New Mexico will get a great addition to their team this weekend with the return of Adva Cohen. Cohen hasn’t competed yet this season because she was competing at the IAAF World Track Championships (steeplechase). Without Cohen, the Lobos do not have a complete enough top five for them to finish among the top teams in the country. Weini Kelati is the favorite to win the individual title and it would be surprising if she didn’t. Even though she got beat by Wisconsin’s Alicia Monson at Nuttycombe, she has been untouchable in the Mountain West conference. Ednah Kurgat is a mainstay in the front pack and nothing should change on Friday. The only concern for the Lobos is their #4 and #5 runners. New Mexico cannot compete with the likes of Boise State if Cohen doesn’t race because the latter portion of the Lobos' top five is simply too far back. Individuals Kelati and Kurgat of New Mexico will control the race up front. Kelati is on a different level than the field and has shown that on numerous occasions. She is the reigning conference champion and should take the title once again. Kelati doesn’t need to run anything spectacular to win this race, she just needs to do what she has done all season. On the other hand, Kurgat will need to regroup after her performance at Nuttycombe. She was with the top group through the first half of the race, but then fell off hard and only managed to finish 18th. Although 18th isn’t a bad showing in such a deep field, it was further back than one would expect for Kurgat. She might not be able to beat Kelati, but she should still finish 2nd in this race. It is currently hard to gauge where Cohen is (in terms of fitness) if she races. Cohen hasn’t competed in an NCAA event since the 2019 Outdoor National Championships where she finished 4th in the steeplechase and was a DNF in the 5k. At the IAAF World Championships, Cohen didn’t qualify for the steeplechase final. If Cohen did not peak too early, she could be a threat for the top five this Friday. Behind the New Mexico trio, expect to find the Air Force duo of Norris and Gallagher. Norris was 22nd at Nuttycombe and Gallagher followed in 29th. These two have had breakout seasons and will use the Mountain West meet as a final tune-up before competing in a tough Mountain region. O’Brien of Boise State should be in the top 10 this weekend. A disappointing finish at Nuttycombe should be forgotten as O’Brien is capable of racing with the top women of Air Force. O’Brien’s teammate Maxine Paholek is one more runner to watch. She cracked the top 10 at this meet last year. If you need a runner to watch for outside of New Mexico, Boise State, or Air Force, then be sure to keep an eye on San Jose State’s Jenny Sandoval. Sandoval has been quietly picking up top finishes at smaller meets this season such as a 2nd place finish at the Capital Cross Challenge and a 1st finish at the Santa Clara Bronco Invite. Sandoval could disrupt some of the scoring opportunities for the top teams in this meet. Women's Predictions Teams 1. Boise State 2. New Mexico 3. Air Force 4. Utah State 5. Colorado State Individuals 1. Weini Kelati (New Mexico) 2. Ednah Kurgat (New Mexico) 3. Mikayla Gallagher (Air Force) 4. Clare O’Brien (Boise State) 5. Mahala Norris (Air Force) 6. Adva Cohen (New Mexico) 7. Maxine Paholek (Boise State) 8. Yukino Parle (Boise State) 9. Jenny Sandoval (San Jose State) 10. Olivia Johnson (Boise State)

  • PAC-12 Championship Preview

    Men's preview written by Ben Weisel Women's preview written by Sam Ivanecky Men's Preview Teams The PAC-12 conference is always loaded and this year is no exception. There are three TSR Top 10 teams with two more squads inside the top 20 who will arrive to Monmouth, Oregon ready to prove their talent. Unlike many other conference meets, the top five teams at this meet have their ticket to NCAA's essentially punched, so this weekend will be an opportunity for each of these teams to see how they match up against other top groups in a somewhat smaller field. With some teams planning on cruising through regionals on their way to Nationals, this is likely the last time we will get to see some of these runners go all-out before the national meet. So buckle up, we have plenty of action to prepare for. Based on the results we have seen so far, the favorite to take home the team title is TSR #2 Stanford. They have raced twice this season and have earned runner-up finishes behind three-time reigning NCAA champion Northern Arizona at both the John McNichols Invitational and the Nuttycombe Invitational. Coming into the season, it looked like the Cardinal would be led by the four All-Americans of Thomas Ratcliffe (TSR #6), Alex Ostberg (TSR #11), Alek Parsons, and Steven Fahy. That has turned out to be half true. Ratcliffe and Ostberg have run extremely well this year, finishing 2nd and 7th, respectively at McNichols as well as 4th and 3rd (respectively) at Nuttycombe. Unfortunately for Stanford, Parsons and Fahy both found themselves outside of the team’s top four at Nuttycombe. In the mean time, it was Clayton Mendez and Callum Bolger who stepped up to take the two spots ahead of Parsons. While it is certainly possible that Mendez and Bolger could fill in about 80% of what Parsons and Fahy could have run if they were fully healthy, there is some reason for concern. Stanford was our preseason #1 because they appeared to have four All-American locks, but Parsons and Fahy have yet to regain the form that they showed when they were All-Americans. There is still plenty of time left, and so far, the team has only lost to NAU. The less-than-expected firepower does, however, leave them susceptible to a potential upsest from a dynamic Colorado team. To seal the win, Stanford needs one of two things to happen. First option: Bolger and Mendez need to have big-time performances to keep the gap from Ostberg and Ratcliffe small. If that doesn’t happen, then we get to the second option: Fahy or Parsons need relocate their top-tier fitness and earn top 10 performances at the PAC-12 meet. Although Stanford is no longer the preseason lock to win the PAC-12 title that they once were, both of those possibilities are (somewhat) realistic which is the reason why they still remain the favorite to beat Colorado and take home another conference title. As we already mentioned, the team most likely to break up Stanford’s two year reign as PAC-12 Champions is TSR #4 Colorado. Led by top returners Joe Klecker (TSR #7), John Dressel (TSR #21), and Eduardo Herrera (TSR #45), the six-time PAC-12 champions entered the season poised for another great season...but only if they could find two morerunners to support their strong top three. So far, they have had great success thanks to Kashon Harrison (TSR #46) and Alec Hornecker who have both stepped up in a big way. Harrison was 11th at Pre-Nationals and 18th at Joe Piane while Hornecker was 38th and 26th at Pre-Nationals and Joe Piane, respectively. Their top three has been just as good as we expected, leading the Buffaloes to a win at Joe Piane and a 2nd place finish at Pre-Nationals. The loss to BYU in Terre Haute is a touch puzzling, mainly due to how the race unfolded. The Cougars were able to put their top two in front of Dressel and Klecker while both teams' bottom three scorers finished in the same vicinity of each other. With Ratcliffe and Ostberg looming, Colorado will need to make sure that Klecker and Dressel are not outpaced by both Stanford runners. In a smaller race like PAC-12's, there will be less of a scoring gap than at Pre-Nationals, but it will still be a very important for Colorado’s top two to - at worst - only finish a few places behind Stanford’s top two. Additionally, how far back Hornecker is another thing to track throughout the race. If he is within eight places of the Buffaloes #4 runner, then Colorado’s chances of taking home the title are much higher. One of the surprise teams of the year has been TSR #6 UCLA. Like Colorado, they have been led by a potent top three of Robert Brandt (TSR #10), Colin Burke (TSR #35), and Garrett Reynolds (TSR #50). This trio led the Bruins to a 5th place finish at Nuttycombe over Purdue and Indiana. All of this comes after an impressive performance at the Bill Dellinger Invitational where they finished 3rd, but were only two points behind BYU and eight points behind Oregon. Since then, it seems that Oregon and UCLA’s fortunes have flipped as the Ducks finished five places behind the Bruins at Nuttycombe. Chris Morzenti has proven to be a consistent #4 runner after his 76th place finish in Wisconsin. George Gleason and Millen Trujillo placed 99th and 100th, respectively at Nuttycombe and give UCLA a few options for who their #5 man will be which lowers the risk of a bad team performance. I’m not sure if the Bruins have enough scoring potency in the backend of their lineup to compete with Colorado and Stanford, but they are set up well to earn a top three spot if they run as well as they did two weeks ago. Now moving onto the most confusing team in the country, TSR #18 Washington Huskies. Although they lost top returners from last year, most notably Tanner Anderson, the Huskies brought in a top recruiting class as well as star transfers such as Andrew Jordan (TSR #39) and Jack Rowe. All of that while returning Tibebu Proctor and Talon Hull. After a series of underwhelming performances during the regular season, a team we thought would challenge for the podium will likely hope they can snag a 4th place finish at PAC-12's. Mick Stanovsek has stepped up in a big way for the Huskies in terms scoring, but Washington finished 4th at Pre-Nationals because Hull, Proctor, and Rowe finished too far behind Jordan. This is still a team with loads of potential, Hull and Rowe had solid races at the Battle at Beantown, and if they put it all together on the same day, they could run like we expected them to in the preseason. As for TSR #12 Oregon, they started off the season in impressive fashion, beating BYU at the Bill Dellinger Invitational. Cooper Teare (TSR #20) and James West led the way as the Ducks flashed some impressive scoring potency and depth. It was a different story for the Ducks at Nuttycombe. Teare was an impressive low-stick, but West was over 40 spots behind him. Cole Hocker continued his solid freshman campaign by placing 64th, but their #4 and #5 runner were too far behind. Consequently, Oregon finished 10th. Another issue for the Ducks was the absence of Noah Affolder at Nuttycombe who would have been a huge help for the team. In a smaller field, the Ducks could run like they did at Dellinger, but they will need better performances from West and the latter half of their lineup. Overall, it looks to be a two-team race for the title while Oregon and Washington will look to challenge UCLA for 3rd. Based on what we have seen so far, the Bruins should be able to fend off the Ducks and Huskies, but both teams have the talent to pull off an upset. Individuals The individual race is between two of the top Americans in the country and should give us a good indication of who is ready to challenge Edwin Kurgat and the Alabama duo at NCAAs. Klecker did not finish as high up as expected at Pre-Nationals while Ratcliffe was beaten by teammates Ostberg at Nuttycombe. Speaking of Ostberg, he is a good pick to take the win if Klecker and Ratcliffe slip up. Cooper Teare, John Dressel, and Robert Brandt will all be in the mix as well. TSR #41 Amir Ado of Washington State finished 20th Nuttycombe and is another runner who will be in the top 10 who we haven’t talked about yet. Carlos Villarreal of Arizona is an additional name to watch after his 15th place run at PAC-12s last year. I anticipate a slower start that leads to big pack up front before one of the favorites starts pushing the pace, but no matter the tactics, we will get an interesting insight on how some of the best runners in the country match up against one another. Men's Predictions Teams 1. Stanford 2. Colorado 3. UCLA 4. Washington 5. Oregon 6. Washington State 7. California 8. Arizona 9. Arizona State Individuals 1. Thomas Ratcliffe (Stanford) 2. Joe Klecker (Colorado) 3. Alex Ostberg (Stanford) 4. Robert Brandt (UCLA) 5. John Dressel (Colorado) 6. Cooper Teare (Oregon) 7. Andrew Jordan (Washington) 8. Colin Burke (UCLA) 9. Garrett Reynolds (UCLA) 10. Amir Ado (Washington State) 11. Kashon Harrison (Colorado) 12. James West (Oregon) 13. Alek Parsons (Stanford) 14. Eduardo Herrera (Colorado) 15. Talon Hull (Washington) 16. Tibebu Proctor (Washington) 17. Carlos Villarreal (Arizona) 18. Cole Hocker (Oregon) 19. Clayton Mendez (Stanford) 20. Jack Rowe (Washington) Women's Preview On the women’s side, the PAC-12 is a heavyweight bout among the NCAA's best. The conference includes 13 individually ranked women and five ranked teams, including the #3, #4, and #5 ranked squads in our TSR XC Top 25. While some conferences may have more depth, none can match the firepower that the PAC-12 brings to the table. The Stanford Cardinal come in ranked at #3 in our XC Top 25, having only lost (twice) to TSR #1 Arkansas this season. The Cardinal finished only five points off from the Razorbacks in their season opener at John McNichols and finished runner-up (again) by 36 points at Nuttycombe. Redshirt senior Fiona O’Keefe continues to lead Stanford and comes into this weekend as the #5 ranked individual in the NCAA. As the top individual in the conference, O’Keefe is the favorite to win the individual title which would be big for Stanford's championship title hopes. Two Stanford teammates behind O'Keefe who have been outperforming expectations are Ella Donaghu (TSR #23) and Jessica Lawson (TSR #25). Last year, neither woman finished in the top 25 at the PAC-12 meet, but after finishing 6th and 12th at Nuttycombe, this pair could very easily find themselves in the top 10 of the PAC-12 come Friday. Dare we suggest that one of them could finish in the top five? It's certainly not a reach... Behind Stanford's top three is some combination of Julia Heymach, Jordan Oakes, Abi Archer, and Kristin Fahy who should round out the scorers. Oakes (TSR #49) finished 30th at Nuttycombe two weeks ago and looks poised to be Stanford’s #4 option in their lineup. However, Julia Heymach finished just ahead of her earlier in the season at McNichols. Fahy was not far off from Oakes at McNichols, but DNF’d at Nuttycombe. Oakes and Heymach will likely be the final two scorers for the Cardinal and should give Stanford a complete scoring five, all of whom should finish inside the top 20 on Friday. The one question still hanging in the air is if (or when) will Christina Aragon return for Stanford? The middle distance star did not race cross country in 2018 or thus far in 2019, but she has enough raw talent to be a top 10 runner at PAC-12's. With Aragon in the lineup, the Stanford women are almost untouchable in comparison to their PAC-12 opponents. However, without her, it looks like it will still be a tight battle with Washington and Colorado. The Washington Huskies started the season a little shaky at John McNichols and Joe Piane, failing to capitalize on the idea that they could be a favorite for the podium. However, they recently bounced back with a stellar run at Pre-Nationals to claim the team title over an Orton-less BYU team (although Washington didn't race Melany Smart). Despite finishing 5th at Joe Piane as a team, the silver lining was freshman Melany Smart putting together an absolutely phenomenal run to finish 5th overall, taking down NCAA stars such as Ednah Kurgat and Anna Rohrer in the process. She also beat notable PAC-12 opponents such as Sage Hurta, Bella Williams, and Tabor Scholl in the process. Smart did not race at Pre-Nationals, but is expected to return to the lineup for PAC-12's where she could be a huge contributor. Currently ranked #20 in our XC Top 50, Smart has a chance to challenge O’Keefe for the overall win and should certainly be a top 10 finisher if she races. The fact that Washington was able to win Pre-Nationals, ahead of fellow PAC-12 rival Colorado, without Smart speaks volumes about the depth of this group. Behind Smart, perennial distance star Katie Rainsberger could also be in contention for a top spot on Friday. Rainsberger is coming off of a 6th place finish at Pre-Nationals and is currently ranked at #13 overall in our XC Top 50. In the past couple seasons, Rainsberger has consistently been near the front of their races, but never looked dominant enough to get the win. She should be considered a strong bet to finish in the top five this weekend. Outside of the lethal 1-2 Washington punch are a handful of women who could round out the Huskies' scoring group. Sophomore Shona McCulloch had the best race of her season at Pre-Nationals where she had a breakthrough performance to finish 12th overall. Not far behind her were teammates Lilli Burdon and Allie Schadler coming in at 21st and 22nd, with Camila David-Smith in 28th. All four of these women crossed the line before Colorado’s #3 runner at Pre-Nationals and a similar showing on Friday puts the Huskies in a very good position to challenge Stanford. If you add Smart back into their lineup, then Washington has a very real chance to win the meet. As for the defending national champions, they have not quite met their usual standard of success this fall. Colorado has finished runner-up and 3rd in their two meets this season, but were not particularly close to either Washington or BYU at Pre-Nationals. While doubting any team under Mark Wetmore is almost always a mistake, there are reasons to be skeptical of the Buffs heading into Friday. Sage Hurta and Tabor Scholl have provided Colorado with a strong 1-2 pairing. The duo finished 3rd and 10th at Pre-Nationals and come in ranked #2 and #4 individually in the conference. Both have been very consistent this season and should have no problem finishing in the top 10 on Friday. Hurta should be in contention for the individual title and her prowess as a middle-distance runner could give her a leg up if the race comes down to a fast finish. The problem for Colorado has been the strength of their 3-4-5 runners. While the Buffs have decent depth, they really need those scorers to make notable improvements and close the gap between them and the top two. Annie Hill has been having a solid season and finished as Colorado’s #3 runner at both Joe Piane and Pre-Nationals. However, one runner the Buffs really need to step up is Villanova transfer Rachel McArthur. Last fall, she finished 29th in a deeper Nuttycombe field compared to her 39th place finish at Pre-Nationals this fall. Realistically, Colorado needs McArthur to be top 20 on Friday and ideally closer to 10th than 20th. McArthur certainly has the potential to do just that, but transferring across the country (and to altitude) is never easy in terms of adjusting. The other big hit to Colorado’s roster has been the absence of Boise State transfer Emily Venters and freshman Emily Covert. Both would likely be huge additions to the team, but based on interviews with Wetmore, neither are likely to suit up this fall. Realistically, the top three teams at PAC-12's should be some order of these three. Utah (TSR #12) is certainly a strong team and had a big surprise run at Joe Piane to win the meet, taking down Colorado in the process. That said, the Utes most recently finished 11th at Nuttycombe and look like a safe bet for at least a 4th place result on Friday. However, it is important to note that Scarlet Dale didn't run for the Utes at Nuttycombe, so her return could swing the results in Utah's favor if she returns. Meanwhile, Utah low-sticks Bella Williams (TSR #41) and Poppy Tank (TSR #43) should both be in contention for top 10 finishes. The only other team that could mix it up are the Oregon Ducks. Normally a powerhouse in the distance running world, Oregon is in the midst of an off-year and should be looking for a 4th or 5th place finish on Friday. Susan Ejore is the only Duck ranked in our XC Top 50 (TSR #33), but after her, Oregon is severely lacking in terms of reliable depth. That said, keep an eye on Taylor Chiotti who had a very solid run at Nuttycombe to finish 31st and could be in the mix this weekend as a key sleeper pick. After Chiotti, the next Duck was Amanda Gehrich in 97th with Isabelle Brauer (125th) and Philippa Bowden (135th) rounding out the scoring five. All three are definitely capable of much better performances, but likely not enough to move past Utah. Essentially, all of the contenders on the individual side have been covered already. O’Keefe should be the favorite, but not by much. Hurta and Smart should both be right on her heels and it would be ridiculous to count out Rainsberger given how consistent she has been. Although both Scholl and Donaghu have been having strong seasons, they likely fall into the next tier of women, along with Williams, Tank, Lawson, and Ejore. If the race is fast from the start, then O’Keefe should have the edge, but if they let it come down to a kick, Hurta will be dangerous. Women's Predictions Teams 1. Washington 2. Stanford 3. Colorado 4. Utah 5. Oregon Individuals 1. Fiona O’Keefe (Stanford) 2. Sage Hurta (Colorado) 3. Melany Smart (Washington) 4. Katie Rainsberger (Washington) 5. Tabor Scholl (Colorado) 6. Ella Donaghu (Stanford) 7. Susan Ejore (Oregon) 8. Bella Williams (Utah) 9. Jessica Lawson (Stanford) 10. Poppy Tank (Utah) 11. Lilli Burdon (Washington) 12. Shona McCulloch (Washington) 13. Taylor Chiotti (Oregon) 14. Jordan Oakes (Stanford) 15. Allie Schadler (Washington) 16. Christina Rice (UCLA) 17. Scarlet Dale (Utah) 18. Julia Heymach (Stanford) 19. Annie Hill (Colorado) 20. Rachel McArthur (Colorado)

  • The Group Chat: Postseason Draft (Women)

    Read up on our men's draft by clicking here How This Works Each writer picks five teams. Snake draft order is determined by random selection. Scoring determined by placement at Nationals. If a team does not qualify for Nationals, then the team scores 32 points. Lowest point total wins. If a team wins their regional meet in a region that sends less than four teams to Nationals, then the writer who drafted that team gets a one point reduction. If a team wins their regional meet in a region that sends four or more teams to Nationals, then the writer who drafted that team gets a two point reduction. If a team wins their conference meet in a conference that sends less than three teams to Nationals, then the writer who drafted that team gets a one point reduction. If a team wins their conference meet in a conference that sends three or more teams to Nationals, then the writer who drafted that team gets a two point reduction. Round One Selections Ben: ​Arkansas is the clear number one choice. They have been, by far, the steadiest team in the NCAA with Taylor Werner leading the way and Katie Izzo and Devin Clark supporting her as pleasant surprises. Throw in the fact that they are the favorites to win the SEC and South Central titles, and they could score negative points for me. Garrett:​ Stanford is the best option at #2. They are just super deep and have proven to be a consistent podium contender year in and year out. They have outstanding firepower and a number of options on their backend. Plus, we haven’t seen Christina Aragon yet, so there’s more potential upside there if she does run this season. They are very close to a lock for the 2nd place spot at Nationals. Sam​: The third pick was challenging because I think BYU, Stanford, and Washington could win it all on the right day. Washington has somewhat of an unknown star in Melany Smart and Lilli Burdon always seems to come out of nowhere at NCAA's. I think Smart, Rainsberger, and Burdon could all be in the top 25 if everything breaks perfectly for them which would be huge for the Huskies. Heck, I even think that they could win it all - especially if Arkansas doesn’t run Robinson and someone has a bad day. Maura: ​I’ve got to stay true to the Beehive state and go with who I know is the best...and that is the BYU women. Whittni Orton, Erica Birk-Jarvis, and Courtney Wayment are a great trio leading this team and each of them have the potential to finish in the top 20 at NCAA's. Runners #4 and #5 are easily interchangeable for BYU and that will work to their advantage. If Orton and/or Aubrey Frentheway had raced at Pre-Nationals, BYU would have easily placed ahead of Washington. Logan: ​I like this pick. Colorado always finds a way to make it work come NCAA’s and it’s just hard for me to believe they won’t place inside the top five, if not the podium. It may seem like a gamble, but I like their odds. I thought about taking NC State, but I just couldn’t bring myself to take them over a team like Colorado. Brian: ​I feel like the top five was pretty clear-cut, so when I landed up at the #6 spot, I had some choices. I went with an NC State team who raced well at Wisconsin where they finished 3rd, but were only 16 points ahead of two other teams. This team is deep, but they're relying on some youth and there are a few inconsistencies here and there. I’ll be honest, I’m worried about this pick. Michael:​ I picked Wisconsin here because I think Alicia Monson can win the individual title and lead the Badgers to a finish worthy of a first-round pick. What makes me nervous about it is that Wisconsin might not even be the best team in their conference or region. That’s why I picked Michigan State next. If Wisconsin can’t win the BIG 10 and/or Great Lakes region, then I think Michigan State can, which will give me the reduction bonus. Round One Discussion Ben: ​For Maura to get BYU at four is really good value especially if they get Whittni Orton back. With the possibility for two point reductions - and Washington and Stanford fighting over the PAC-12 and West region titles - I think they had a case to be the number two pick given their regional and conference point incentives. Garrett: ​Colorado is a bit of gamble given their recent struggles with backend scoring, but they ALWAYS peak at Nationals and have two veteran low-stick All-Americans on their roster. I don’t totally hate the pick while others may have been more cautious. Logan: ​I’ll agree with Garrett, it is a bit of a gamble, but one I’m willing to take. With Colorado on the board still, I just couldn’t bring myself to go against them. No one else seemed like a safer pick in my eyes, and they have the best shot of placing in the top five of who was left. Sam​: Honestly, I think any of the top five drafted teams could win Nationals. Stanford hasn’t run Aragon. Washington didn’t run Smart at Pre-Nats. BYU didn’t run Orton at Pre-Nats. Arkansas hasn't run Robinson. Colorado hasn’t run Covert or Venters. There are still a few unknowns that could potentially swing the team title race. Who knows? Ben: ​I hate how down I am on Colorado because they are going to make me look dumb and peak at NCAA's to finish on the podium. Maura: ​Sam is 100% correct. Each of the top five teams have questions surrounding their rosters, but just wait because a team may come out with some tricks up their sleeve in the coming weeks. Brian: ​No real surprises here as the first seven teams selected are (in my eyes) the best seven teams in the country at this moment. Michael:​ Nothing here shocked me either, this lineup seems pretty clear-cut at this point. Teams like Utah have made things interesting at times, so we will have to wait and see if a surprise team that was picked later in the draft can come up big at NCAA's. Round Two Selections Sam: ​The Lobos have Kelati (possibly #1) and Kurgat (top 10?). They should be a top 10 team at NCAA's if Adva Cohen returns. If others run better than expected, they may take down a team or two ranked ahead of them. Maura: ​NAU has proven that they are on another level this fall after posting superb finishes at John McNichols and Nuttycombe. Taryn O’Neill has definitely performed better at NAU than she did at Villanova last fall, although part of that can be attributed to simply being another year older. Mikayla Malaspina and Miranda Myers have created a great pack in the middle of their lineup and their #4 and #5 runners have held their own. The entirety of their top five is what will lead NAU to major success this postseason. Garrett: ​I went with Utah, but I really didn’t want to. Maura and Sam both took of my picks (NAU and New Mexico) because I thought they would be strong favorites to win their respective conference meets. That said, I think people are overlooking Utah. They didn’t run Scarlet Dale at Nuttycombe and if they had, they are competing for a top five spot in that meet. If she returns, then the Utes are a solid choice at the national meet. Ben: ​My second round pick was tough. I was hoping Utah would fall, but Garrett grabbed them right before I could. Boise State has been a very solid team so far, and I think they are a safe bet to be a top 15 team at NCAA's. At the 14th overall pick, I’ll take that. Brian: ​I liked this Michigan pick. They had their five runners in before Colorado’s #5 runner at Pre-Nats. If they can move their deep pack closer to freshman Ericka VanderLende, don’t be surprised if the Wolverines pull off an upset or two at NCAA’s. Logan: ​I was really hoping to snag Michigan, but if it wasn’t the Wolverines, I was going with the Seminoles. I like this team a lot and with Skyring and Funderburk acting as interchangeable low-sticks, I think they have the potential to break inside the top 10. Michael: ​Michigan State has great depth this year, and as we saw at Nuttycombe, they have a lot of women to choose from for their lineup. Look out for the Spartans later this season because I think it will take a lot for them to have a bad day. Round Two Discussion Ben: ​Man, I was hoping that either Utah or New Mexico were going to fall to me and it looked like they were going to. I think both are high upside picks who could be top five teams at NCAA's on the right day. Sam​: Boise State could surprise. Some may argue that Clare O’Brien has been underperforming this fall, but she could make a jump at NCAA's where she ends up as a top 30 talent. Maybe top 20 on the right day... Garrett:​ I was thinking that Ben should have taken Air Force after Boise State. If there were odds that either of those teams would win the Mountain West title over New Mexico, I would have taken that bet. Ben: ​Dang, that was a good idea. I went with the guaranteed conference title with Furman. Sam: ​Wait...Garrett, you ​could​ have taken them both and you didn’t... Garrett: ​Yeah...I only thought of it after he took Boise State. I never said I was smart. Sam: ​No one said any of us were smart... Brian:​ I feel a lot better about my picks now. Michael:​ So do I! There’s no chance my picks from the first two rounds don’t make it. Logan: ​Like Michael, I could say the same with my first two picks. Colorado and FSU could almost be considered locks to advance to NCAA’s. I’m still pretty confident with my pick thus far. Maura: ​If anyone has been keeping count, we have drafted seven teams to qualify out of the Mountain region. One of us is going to go home upset after the at-large bids are announced. Ben: ​Maura, that is terrifying considering we have only picked 14 teams. I feel a lot worse about my pick now... Brian: ​I actually love the Utah pick by Garrett and see it as an upside selection. They didn’t race well at Wisconsin, but their #4 and #5 runners had off days in comparison to their other races. Plus, they didn't race Scarlet Dale. Round Three Selections Ben: ​I went with Furman for my third round pick. They have two massive studs, Savannah Carnahan and Gabrielle Jennings who are both in our XC Top 50, and they are coming off a solid 10th place team finish at Nuttycombe. If the backend of their lineup can improve a bit, this is a team that will surprise some people this November. Garrett​: I went with Penn State here. There were plenty of teams ranked ahead of them, but I just wanted to find a team that was favored to make it out of their region. Truthfully, I’m not a huge fan of Penn State this year (I was at the beginning), but the rest of the Mid-Atlantic region has severely underwhelmed and I just don’t see how Penn State ​doesn’t​ make it to NCAA’s now. If they win their region, that’s an added bonus. Sam​: Like Garrett said, if New Mexico slips up, Air Force could win the Mountain West. If not, they should still make NCAA's. They have been an under-the-radar team that could surprise a lot of people. Maura: ​The Midwest regional meet will be Illinois’ coming out party this fall. The women of Illinois have been steadily improving each week and look to be a possible automatic qualifier for NCAA's if they run to their potential. Rebecca Craddock is the team leader and is followed by a great pack of four teammates.The Illini' may not have a star finishing in the top five, but the pack in the middle portion of their lineup is what a coach likes to see heading into the postseason. I mean, only 17 seconds separated their 2-3-4. Logan: ​I’m actually pretty happy that I picked the Irish women. They have a solid 1-2 punch in Rohrer and Denner and I think they have what it takes to advance to NCAA’s. Now, I don’t see them improving from their 11th place finish last year, but a top 20 finish seems reasonable, right? They do fall off a bit after their #3, but hopefully they can figure it out in time for Nationals. Brian: ​I really didn’t want to take Oregon here, but I didn’t like my other options. That being said, this team is senior-heavy and I love the experience that comes with it. They have relied on Susan Ejore to be their low-stick this season, but they will need their 3-4-5 to step up in order to be competitive. Michael:​ Columbia looks to be a favorite to win the Ivy League title and the Northeast region title right now, so this was an easy pick for me. They might not be a strong pick to finish in the top half of the field at NCAA's, but I’ll gladly take at least one reduction point. Columbia definitely has some work to do, especially in terms of depth, but I think they are a safe pick at this point in the draft. Round Three Discussion Garrett​: I think this round was A LOT like the 4th round of the men’s draft. Some potential, but a lot more concerns than there was upside. Lack of depth, inconsistencies, loaded conferences or regions...all of those are issues that doesn’t make me love these picks. Ben: ​I liked the Illinois pick especially with a good chance at a point reduction out of the Midwest region. Like Maura mentioned, they are going to surprise some people over the next few weeks. Sam​: Personally, I think Penn State, Illinois and Air Force are all teams that were deserving of their picks in this round. Maura: ​Even though I didn’t get Columbia, I wanted to pick them somewhere in the draft, but I’m a little concerned about how far back their #5 has been finishing. Logan: ​Even though I said I was happy with my pick in Notre Dame, I am still a little worried. Not much though. The fall off at their 3-4-5 is what scares me, but I think they’ll get it together and find themselves in the top 20, if not a little better. Michael:​ That’s definitely a valid concern for Columbia. We’ll see how they stack up against teams like Penn and Boston College at their conference and regional meets. I have to say, I was hoping for Penn State here. Brian: ​I really really really wanted Notre Dame, but Logan took them before I had the chance in the 3rd round. That being said, I think the first three picks of this round were really strong. Round Four Selections Ben: ​Back-to-back 10th place finishes at Joe Piane and Pre-Nationals doesn't exactly inspire a ton of confidence, but I think the Rebels' pack-running style will pay off at the South regional meet. They should finish 2nd behind Florida State and then be a top 20 squad at NCAA's (at least I hope they will be). Michael:​ Indiana may be a risky pick here as qualifying will be tight out of the Great Lakes region. However, if the Hoosiers can make it into NCAA's, they should be able to beat some teams from weaker regions with a solid low-stick in Bailey Hertenstein, who should be able to produce an All-American finish. Sam​: We’re getting to the point of reaching. I think Minnesota will make the national meet. I don’t think they’re that great without the Hasz twins, but hey, maybe they come back...right? Regardless, I think Illinois, Oklahoma State, and Minnesota should all advance out of the Midwest regional. Maura: ​Oklahoma State’s Molly Born and Taylor Somers have put themselves in a good position heading into the postseason after finishing in the top nine at Pre-Nationals. An 11th place finish at Pre-Nats wasn't great, but in a Midwest region that lacks scoring potency, that 1-2 punch could be what the Cowgirls needed if they want to contend for an automatic qualifier. Logan: ​Ohio State seems like a steal to me. I know they’re not a guaranteed team to make Nationals, but I think they had the best shot of who was left. My only concern is the ability to get someone up front. They really need someone up their in the lead pack to offset the fall off of their 3-4-5. That will most likely have to be junior Abby Nichols. Still, I’m not to worried about this pick. They should still get an at-large bid. Brian: ​I liked this Virginia Tech pick. They finished 7th at Pre-Nats in a strong field and that was with their #5 runner being almost 100 points behind their #4! If their #5 runner finishes closer to their #4, then they are very close to Florida State and easily beat Illinois. Of course, that is a lot of ifs... Garrett: ​Texas is not good this year, but everyone in the South Central region outside of Arkansas is...well, worse. They’ll easily make it to Nationals and that’s just something I feel comfortable about in terms of qualifying security. Round Four Discussion Ben: ​This was a tough round to choose from, not a lot of great options. Garrett:​ Further thinking about my Texas strategy...I really rushed that one. Not my best choice. There were a few better choices. Maura: ​I was surprised by your Texas pick in the 4th round. The Longhorns would be a better 5th round pick because they just don’t perform well when it comes to NCAA's. Brian: ​Texas? *Enter confused GIF*. I think there were some options left on the board in the 4th round, but overall a mostly solid group of picks. Garrett: Again, I never said I was smart... Garrett: Also, for what it's worth, I feel like Minnesota probably should have been a 3rd round team. I don't know who I would have replaced with the Gophers (maybe Columbia?), but I think they're a pretty decent choice. Michael:​ I agree with Garrett that Minnesota probably should have been a 3rd round team. I’m kicking myself for brushing over them now! Ben: ​Definitely should have thought more about Minnesota and Ohio State, I like both of those picks. Logan: ​I honestly thought Ohio State would be gone before I could snag them, but I’m glad you overlooked them Ben. I like the Buckeyes potential and I think they will really come together at NCAA’s. Round Five Selections Ben: ​This was a tough one, but I’m going with a Georgetown team that should have a good chance at making NCAA's out of the Mid-Atlantic region and could win the BIG East title. Do I trust them? Not really, but I think they have more scoring potential than anyone else available. Sam​: At this point, I was just spit-balling. Butler was a team that made the USTFCCCA rankings and we considered ranking them in our XC Top 25. They may have enough Kolas points to get out of the Great Lakes meet which would be huge. They could be a sleeper team just to scrap a couple of points at NCAA's. Maura: ​Boston College, for me, was a team I am using to just fish for points. They put up a decent performance at Pre-Nationals with a 9th-place finish, I’m just hoping they can compete well against the rest of the nation when it matters the most. Logan: ​This was my probably my least favorite pick. Obviously being the last round, there wasn’t much to pick from. At this point, I had to think...who could realstically make NCAA’s? Penn? Maybe. I should've just went with Tulsa, and they honestly didn’t even cross my mind. Dumb on my part, but I’m not totally disappointed with this pick. There's still hope. Garrett: ​The Syracuse women did not run well at all when they traveled for Nuttycombe, but I still feel strongly that they can finish inside the top two at their regional meet and even win it. Columbia will challenge them, but I think there is still upside potential for the Orange after what we saw from them at Beantown. Plus, the rest of the Northeast region (on the women’s side) is lacking quite a bit with the possible exception of Boston College who is halfway decent. Michael:​ At this point, I’m just shooting for teams that I think will make NCAA's. Georgia Tech looks to be in a good position to do so in a South region that lacks depth. Brian: ​I was happy with this Tulsa pick late in the 5th round. Tulsa came in a respectable 18th place at Wisconsin, beating out teams like Georgetown who were picked earlier in the draft. Led by Caitlin Klopfer, this team has some potential to make NCAA’s and surprise some people. They will need to see their 4-5 improve for my sake and hopefully they can. Round Five Discussion Maura: ​If Syracuse regroups within these next few weeks, they could be a surprise to some. Ben: ​I wasn’t brave enough to pick the Orange, but I commend the courage from Garrett. Garrett:​ Georgetown is a bit of a gamble bet, especially if they don’t make it to NCAA’s, but they could honestly win the BIG East title because of how weak the conference is this year. In all, that makes this a pretty high value pick considering how late in the round this was. Michael:​ A lot of bold picks in this round. Georgetown and Syracuse just don’t instill a lot of confidence in me. They have the potential to win their respective regions, or they could both be staying home. My guess is that either Boston College or Syracuse make it out of the Northeast region, and right now, BC is just looking like a more solid team to me. Good pick by Maura. Butler could also be a total wildcard here. The Great Lakes region is deep, but I doubt anywhere near all seven teams that we picked from the region can make it (Editors Note: This draft was done before the release of our Kolas projections. All seven teams that we drafted are projected to qualify for Nationals in our Kolas projections. That, however, may not be the case after conference results are completed). Maura: ​I have to give Michael credit for choosing Georgia Tech. They have been pretty silent this fall, but they could be a sleeper-pick. Brian: ​I agree with Michael. Georgetown and 'Cuse weren’t high up on my board, but that being said, they are gutsy picks and they may prove to be well worth it come conference and regionals. Logan: ​I can’t believe I let Tulsa slip by. I would've been so much more confident with my team.

  • The Group Chat: Postseason Draft (Men)

    The regular season is now complete and with conference championships fast approaching, we thought it would be fun to do something different for the postseason...so we did a fantasy cross country draft (because we don't have social lives). However, instead of selecting individual runners (which we will do before the national meet), we opted to draft teams instead. Before we get into the actual draft, here are some of the quick details that you may want to know... *Women's picks coming tomorrow* How This Works Each writer picks five teams. Snake draft order is determined by random selection. Scoring determined by placement at Nationals. If a team does not qualify for Nationals, then the team scores 32 points. Lowest point total wins. If a team wins their regional meet in a region that sends less than four teams to Nationals, then the writer who drafted that team gets a one point reduction. If a team wins their regional meet in a region that sends four or more teams to Nationals, then the writer who drafted that team gets a two point reduction. If a team wins their conference meet in a conference that sends less than three teams to Nationals, then the writer who drafted that team gets a one point reduction. If a team wins their conference meet in a conference that sends three or more teams to Nationals, then the writer who drafted that team gets a two point reduction. Round One Selections Michael:​ Picking NAU here is a no-brainer in my opinion. So far this season, NAU has consistently proven themselves as the top team in the nation and I would be surprised to not see them bring home their fourth consecutive title. Logan: ​Taking BYU over Stanford might shock a few people, but BYU returns four men from the top 65 of last year's national meet. BYU is almost guaranteed a podium finish, and quite frankly, I think they have enough to overtake Stanford. With Mantz as a key low-stick runner and Heslington on the rise, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them give Stanford a run for their money. Garrett:​ I can understand why BYU went before Stanford, but I just think that there is too much firepower for the Cardinal to not be on the podium. I think they’re the closest thing to a lock for the podium outside of NAU. I also think their depth will be better than what we saw last year. There's just too much good to not take them at #3. Ben:​ I am going with Iowa State for a few different reasons. One, I think they are really, really good and deep. Behind Edwin Kurgat and Addison DeHaven, the Cyclones have plenty of options to fill out the next three scoring spots. Additionally, this is a team that should easily win a BIG 12 conference title as well as the Midwest region. Subtracting two points off of Iowa State’s NCAA finish pushes them ahead of a team like Colorado (in terms of draft value) who will face Stanford at PAC-12's and NAU and BYU in the Mountain region. Brian: ​ Colorado fell to #5 which is nice for a team I see making podium, so this was a no-brainer pick. This team had an “average” performance at Pre-Nats in my eyes and they still took 2nd in a close race. I see Klecker sliding up and competing with the top guys in the country and thus leading the team as the low-stick. My only worry about this pick is not getting the point reduction because the PAC-12 is very competitive. Sam:​ Right now, Portland sits at #8 in our team rankings so this might be considered a surprise pick, but if anyone knows how to surprise at NCAA's, it’s Rob Conner and the Pilots. Sure, they were only 9th at Nuttycombe, but some guys had less than stellar days and I think they’re going to show up when it matters most. George Duggan had a much better race at Dellinger than Nuttycombe and I would expect him to run better at WCC's and the West Regional Championships. I also wouldn’t sleep on former Minnesota man Joey Duerr. Maura:​ As the season has progressed, the Washington men are progressing as well. The men are starting to put things together when it begins to matter. Andrew Jordan, a transfer from Iowa State, has proved his presence on the team and is helping lower the score after his top 10 performance at Pre-Nationals. I’m still waiting for Talon Hull and Tibebu Proctor to get into top form, but with PAC-12's up next, these men have a chance to prove why the Huskies are a national contender this fall. Round One Discussion Garrett: ​Already a few surprises...but the biggest one definitely being Washington. I still think that they can put together a good performance on the right day, but it’s surprising to see them go in the first round. I’m just not very high on them despite their firepower. I don’t like their consistency. Ben: ​I agree, the point incentives have already influenced a few decisions, but it was interesting to see a team that likely won’t earn any reductions because they are in the same conference as BYU and the same region as Stanford. Michael: ​ Overall, nothing surprised me too much in this round. We all have a pretty good idea of who the top teams will be, so where the surprises come is the actual draft order itself. Logan taking BYU over Stanford may come as a bit of a surprise, but I like that pick and probably would have gone the same way. Ben: ​I agree, I think the top five went in about the order I expected. It will be interesting to see how things diverge from this point on. Sam​: The only real “shock” pick would maybe be taking Iowa State before Colorado, but I do see the upset with Kurgat leading the way. Logan: ​ Honestly, I really chose BYU over Stanford just to stir things up early. I do think Stanford is the better team right now, but come time for Nationals, I think BYU will peak and overtake Stanford. Maura: ​BYU is a solid choice for upsetting Stanford. Conner Mantz is a guaranteed low-stick for the Cougars and Jacob Heslington made a statement after finishing 4th at Pre-Nationals. Brian: ​Iowa State over Colorado surprised me as well as Washington this early. I’m happy with my pick so hopefully a get a couple more steals down the line. Round Two Selections Maura: ​Between Jaret Carpenter, Brody Smith, and Curt Eckstein, the Boilermakers have a great top trio. The men of Purdue had a breakout season last year after Smith transferred in and that success has rolled over to this fall. Their 6th place finish at Nuttycombe prepares them well to take on tough competition at BIG 10’s. The only concern for Purdue is how far back their #4 and #5 runners are from the leading trio. If the back-half of the team can close their gap, big things could happen for Purdue and the team will get their redemption after faltering last fall at NCAA's. Sam: ​My entire contingent may just be “sleeper” teams. Tulsa has this habit of showing up when things matter most, which usually means sneaking through the regional meet and then overperforming at NCAA's. This year, they have already put down a massive statement performance at Nuttycombe with their 3rd place run and I would be surprised if they don’t crack the top 12 at NCAA's. While I don’t necessarily see this team as a huge threat to make the podium, I can see them somehow finishing between 7th and 15th - likely on the higher end. Brian:​ I love Iona at #10. This is a team that has been flying under the radar this season and had a sizable 3rd place finish at Pre-Nats. Usually a pack-running team, this squad has two strong front-runners in Ehab El-Sandali and Johnjack Millar. Also, Iona is a lock to win the Metro Atlantic, so you might as well subtract a point right now. Ben:​ It was a tough decision picking between Ole Miss and UCLA. I think UCLA will ultimately finish higher than the Rebels, but the possible two point reduction for Ole Miss was too much to pass up on. They are heavy favorites in the SEC and the South region. Plus, this is a team that finished 2nd at the Joe Piane Invitational and they have a very strong top five led by Waleed Suliman. They are a high-upside team that, on a good day, have a great chance at finishing in the top 10 at NCAA's and that potential is why they earned my second round pick. Garrett: ​It’s understandable why teams like Ole Miss, Iona, and Purdue were taken before UCLA. Those teams can all post a good finishes as Nationals AND win their respective regional/conference meets. However, I’ll still take the potential 6th or 7th place finish that UCLA could earn at the national meet despite being in loaded conference and regional meets. Logan: ​I went with Indiana for a few reasons, the first reason being I thought they were the next best team available. Mau and Veatch have turned out to be absolute studs for the Hoosiers, and from here I think they only get better. Unfortunately, I don’t see Indiana getting me a point reduction as they have Purdue in their conference, but nonetheless, I think they can have a stellar race at NCAA’s. Michael: ​I think Michigan is an underrated team this year. They might not be the favorite to win the BIG 10 or the Great Lakes region which means I could lose out on the reduction points, but I think the Wolverines could surprise some people, especially at NCAA's. They’ve flown under the radar this season and their depth will take them far. Round Two Discussion Garrett: ​When teams like Iona and Ole Miss went off the board, I was a bit surprised, but the possible point incentives they could get from their regional and conference meets is fair to think about. I also LOVE the Michigan pick. They won’t put up a flashy finish at Nationals, but they won’t have a bad race due to their incredible depth and pack-running. They’re a safe pick, props to Michael. Sam​: If Maura hadn’t taken Purdue, I definitely would have. Them (or Tulsa) may be the best team in the NCAA with no “big name” superstar. I realize Carpenter is very, very good, but I don’t consider him a household name like say Oliver Hoare or Edwin Kurgat. Ben: ​I like the Purdue pick from Maura. They have a good chance at earning some point reductions and have such a solid top three which will, at the very least, put them in contention for a top 10 finish. A very safe, solid pick to pair with the high upside/low floor Washington pick Michael: ​I KNEW Garrett was going to pick UCLA. They’re a sneaky good team and he has bet on their guys in these kinds of situations before and seen good results. Nice pick. Logan: ​For some reason I had hoped no one would take Purdue, but there was little chance that would happen. I don’t know what to think about Purdue, do we consider them underrated or overrated? Obviously, the results this year show that they were definitely underrated at the beginning of the season, but after receiving their highest ranking ever this past weekend, I'm curious to see how they handle the postseason after struggling in 2018. Maura: ​Purdue has proven to be the best team in the BIG 10 this fall. I don’t consider them underrated or overrated because they have put together solid back-to-back-to-back performances this season. Now, Michael’s Michigan pick surprises me. 2018 All-American Jack Aho has really struggled this season as he didn’t even score for Michigan at Nuttycombe. For their top five spread, I know 25 seconds is great, but Michigan just doesn’t seem like a national contender this fall. Brian:​ I was either going with Iona or Tulsa in my position and I would have rather had Tulsa, but Iona was a great next option. This is a team favored to win their conference and maybe their region so that point deduction will lead to being a better pick than Washington in my eyes. Round Three Selections Michael: ​Wisconsin might not have the low-stick they had last year with Morgan McDonald, but Oliver Hoare has stepped up in a big way that could leave him not far from where McDonald finished last year. Hoare has a strong team behind him that could put the Badgers in the top 10 at NCAA's on the right day. Logan: ​ This might be a little bit of a bold pick, but I like ​bold. ​I honestly have no idea how they will perform at NCAA’s. In my opinion, they have under-performed this season and I think many others can agree. They started off the season on a good note, but last weekend’s Nuttycombe performance was a bit disappointing. Part of that obviously has to do with Affolder not racing. Their 1-2-3-4 are solid, but their #5 hasn’t performed well as of late. If Affolder is out for the season, that changes everything. All I can hope for is that their #5 runner steps up, and maybe they can have a "Tulsa at Nuttycombe" type performance in terms of the shock-factor. Who knows? Garrett: ​There are rumors right now that JP Flavin is injured and could be out for the foreseeable future. When you factor that in with their very odd non-result at Nuttycombe, there is understandable concern with this NC State team. Even so, I just didn’t like any other team after them and their Joe Piane performance was too good to forget about. Ben:​ If you would have told me a month ago that I could have Notre Dame in the third round, then I would have been ecstatic. A lot has changed in a month. I don’t feel great about this pick after the Irish’s last two races, but there is a reason why they were a top 10 team at the beginning of the year. They have a ton of talent and have a stud in Yared Nuguse and a breakout star in the making in Dylan Jacobs. If Danny Kilrea can get back into his form from last year, then they are in really good shape especially since Andrew Alexander has been a solid top four contributor all year. Plus, they could win the ACC team title. Sam: ​Oklahoma State is not nearly as deep as they have been...BUT, Isai Rodrgiuez is an absolute game-changer. He can be a top five runner at NCAA's which is huge for their team points. I think both Quigley and Haines will improve by Nationals and they should make it out of the region based on Kolas points once their conference meet finishes. Brian: ​MTSU felt like a stretch pick, but I love their two front-runners and I kept with the strategy of taking teams who are expected to win their conference. This team is far from proven, but they also have a high ceiling with their front runners in Jacob Choge and Kigen Chemadi. It will all depend on how their 3-4-5 do in the postseason. Maura: ​Boise State is definitely an underdog heading into the postseason. Ahmed Muhumed has improved each season and he had himself a strong showing at Nuttycombe with a 23rd place finish. Behind him, Miler Haller and Logan Rees are there, but then the team drops off at their #4 and #5 runners. Boise State’s fate lies in their final two scorers closing the gap and finishing in the top 80 in the team scoring. Round Three Discussion Sam​: I think Oregon may be the highest pick to really under-perform. Hot take: I don’t think they even finish in the top half of NCAA's. There. I said it. Logan: ​Maybe Sam is right? But Oregon isn’t the only team that could really under-perform at NCAA’s. I took a shot with the Ducks because the potential is there. I definitely thought about this pick for a sec, but as I mentioned earlier, I like making bold picks, and hopefully this one pays off. Ben: ​ FIRE. I think they have too much depth to not make the top half of NCAA's even if their scoring potency doesn’t show up. Garrett: ​I just...didn’t like any of the teams in this round. I think there are a lot of potential concerns with pretty much all of these teams, some more than others. I like Wisconsin’s experience in the postseason and I think that plays into their favor. Still, there are just way too many issues surrounding the depth of these groups. Ben: ​ There weren’t a lot of good options, I agree. Oklahoma State freaks me out. There is a good chance they don’t make NCAA's. If we are making hot takes, then put me down for the Cowboys finishing 3rd behind Tulsa and Iowa State at the Midwest regional meet and missing out on NCAA's. Garrett: That is the coldest "hot take" ever. Sam​: Ironically, I agree with Ben. Except I think the magical committee of koalas will get them through ( Editors Note: Sam is referencing the often auto-corrected "Kolas" qualifying system ). Also, I agree with Garrett that this round felt like every team that I could draft should have been a fourth round pick. Michael:​ A lot of these picks are bold and rely on a lot of things going right for these teams to secure low finishes at NCAA's. This includes my own pick, which makes me curious as to how the rest of the draft will go. If teams like Middle Tennessee or Oklahoma State don’t make it into NCAA's, this round could turn out to be a bust for some people. Ben: ​Likewise, I am nervous about MTSU because they don’t have enough Kolas points to qualify if they are unable to beat Ole Miss or Florida State at the South regional meet who have both run well so far. Maura: ​I’m a little nervous about Notre Dame. Their team went out hard at Nuttycombe and really fell apart. Yared Nuguse was the only athlete who paced himself well during that race, finishing 25th. However, behind him, things went south. Danny Kilrea hasn’t been at the same level he was on last fall. Andrew Alexander and Dylan Jacobs were back in the low 80’s and then their next two didn’t cross the line until 125th and 128th. Brian:​ NC State looks like a reach in the 3rd round. Their team looks a little beat up with injuries and without some of their guys like JP Flavin. I don’t see this team placing high. Round Four Selections Maura: ​The Aggies of Utah State may have finished 14th at Nuttycombe, but these men are finishing close to one another and could earn a qualifying bid after racing in a difficult Mountain region. Luke Beattie and Dallin Farnsworth are finishing just seconds apart while Adam Hendrickson, James Withers, and Caleb Garnica are keeping the spread extremely low at only 23 seconds at Nuttycombe. Two years ago, Utah State qualified for NCAA's and things are looking up for the Aggies once again this year. Sam​: So to be honest, I haven’t paid enough attention to the men and I purely picked Syracuse because they were ranked highly in our rankings and no one had picked them yet. That is literally my entire reasoning for that pick. Oh, and I guess they’re usually good so that helps. Brian: ​Gonzaga finished in 16th place at Wisconsin and was only one point behind Notre Dame. I think at this stage in the draft, this was a solid pick. Led by James Mwaura who placed 15th individually, this team runs as a pack through their bottom four scorers and if they can move up slightly, they have a good chance to upset some teams come NCAA's. Ben: ​ I am going with Princeton even after a less than stellar performance at Nuttycombe. They still should be the favorite to win the Ivy League and the Mid-Atlantic region, so that will help. This is also a very deep team who will hopefully give their top studs, Lundy and Grossman, some more support in the postseason. Garrett: ​Princeton was my first choice, but Florida State just felt like a relatively comfortable choice. A great low-stick. Solid supporting pieces. Respectable-enough depth. Experience on the national stage...what’s not to like? I just don’t see many weaknesses with this group. Logan: ​I like this pick. Villanova seems to be the team that stays quiet throughout the year. You don’t hear much about them, but they’re always there. They had a solid performance at Pre-Nats, taking home an 8th place finish without Casey Comber and Andrew Marston. If they take a top two spot in their region, this will turn out to be a great pick. Michael:​ Southern Utah is an admittedly risky pick here given their inconsistencies. However, after a solid finish at Nuttycombe, I am confident that they can make it to the national meet if things don’t go horribly wrong. Round Four Discussion Ben: ​This is definitely the part of the draft where there are a lot of underwhelming options. I think Utah State could be a nice surprise pick. I was torn between Florida State and Princeton, but the Tigers felt like the safer pick. Logan:​ I have to agree with Ben, this part of the draft held a lot of underwhelming options. I was really torn on who to pick, but with who was left I felt like 'Nova was a good upside choice. Garrett:​ I REALLY wanted Princeton. Despite their less-than-stellar performance at Wisconsin, the point incentives they offer for their regional and conference meets was tempting. I also like their depth as well as their mix of youth and experience. Brian: ​Syracuse was a surprise pick for me at this point in the draft. They looked great early on, but without a strong front-runner in Tooker, I don’t see this team placing high in the postseason. I thought about picking Princeton, but Gonzaga beat them at Wisconsin and I think they have a lot of exciting potential. Michael:​ I wanted Princeton or Florida State this round and figured I would be safe getting one of them...but unfortunately not. Two solid picks that look really good for winning conference and/or regional titles. Round Five Selections Michael: ​I think the Virginia men have a strong shot at winning the Southeast region, and at this point in the draft, scoring a team that could earn a reduction point (or two, the ACC could be up in the air) could be big. Virginia had a disappointing finish at Nuttycombe, but if they can bounce back, I would consider them essentially a lock to make Nationals out of a middle-of-the-road region and beat some teams. Logan: ​I admittedly didn’t want to draft Texas, but I wasn’t sure who else to draft. So I went with the Longhorns. Don’t get me wrong, Texas is a solid team. I just felt like there was a better team out there that I'm missing. But looking back, I’m kind of glad I went with them. The Longhorns had a great performance at the Bill Dellinger Invite, out performing teams such as Villanova and Air Force. With the Longhorns, I’m preparing for the worst, but hoping for the best. A 25th place finish or better is fine with me. Ben: ​Eastern Kentucky should have enough Kolas points to make NCAA's. Despite their poor showing at Nuttycombe, they are Top 25 team and should have a good chance at winning another OVC title. They could even compete with NC State for the Southeast title if the Wolfpack are a little off. Sam​: At this point, I’m simply looking for teams to ​ make​ Nationals and I think the Razorbacks should do that. Heck, they can get last, but it still earns points. Could they be top 20? Probably not, but I’m drafting them because they will make the meet and then whatever happens, ya know...happens. Garrett: ​I had to go with my Hokies! It may seem like a bit of a homer pick, but I just like what they have. Seufer is a stud and they have some very solid pieces who are quietly underrated. They are more than capable of supporting the middle of their lineup. They aren’t the flashiest team, but they will get the job done, and I think they’ll sneak into the national meet if ACC’s goes well. Brian: ​At this point in the draft, you are looking for steals and I think I found one in Furman. Usually a team that peaks late in the season, this team placed 19th at Wisconsin and they are a fringe NCAA team. In my eyes, they were the best option still on the table. Also, I fully expect the Furman men to win the Southern Conference title. Maura: ​Georgetown doesn’t have a ton of firepower up front, but the Hoyas are still respectable and could give Villanova a challenge at the BIG East Championships before challenging Princeton at the Mid-Atlantic Regional Championships. Round Five Discussion Maura: ​ The Razorbacks will no doubt qualify for Nationals due to being in a fairly weak South Central region. It is difficult to gauge where Arkansas will finish, but there are definitely points to pick up there. Sam​: Yeah, at this point if a team is essentially guaranteed points, I consider it a huge win. Honestly, if Arkansas wasn't on the board, I was going to take South Dakota State #GoJacks. Ben: ​I really wanted Texas for that exact reason. They are guaranteed a spot to NCAA's and should be able to earn one reduction point by winning the South Central region. Logan: ​I was simply looking for teams to just make Nationals at the very least. Texas is a team that is guaranteed a spot at the NCAA's which is better than taking a risk on a team that has the potential to not make it which would result in 32 points for me. Even if the Longhorns get last, that’s one less point than a team who didn’t make it and for anybody who’s into fantasy knows that every point matters. Michael:​ We saw a lot of teams from the Southeast go this round...my guess would be that they don’t all make NCAA's. Who knew the fifth round would end up being so exciting? Garrett: ​I thought the exact same thing, Michael. Four teams from the Southeast region are all in the final round. That could be the make-or-break round for this draft. It just shows how much up in the air that region is when it comes to national qualifying. Brian:​ At this point in the draft, it’s NCAA's or bust. I think I picked a good one in Furman, but a lot is going to ride on this final round.

  • Kolas Projections (Women): Update #1

    Before we get started, we need to send a big thank you to Bo Waggoner for helping us (and you) out with Kolas projections this year! Bo created a program that allows users to enter their order of which teams will finish where at their respective regional meets. Then, based off of results from the season, the program calculates which teams will be going to Nationals. And yes, this program does take "B Teams" into account. Before we get into the at-large bids, we need to have a quick discussion about the auto-lock teams (the programs who will finish inside the top two of their region) and why we chose them. Let's start with the Great Lakes region. Currently, we have Michigan State and Michigan taking the top two spots, but don't at all be surprised if Wisconsin hops in there. Notre Dame could also be an outside threat to earn a top two spot. A lot of these finishes will depend on race tactics and this region is no exception. The same goes for the West region. Stanford and Washington are the projected top two, but if they decide to conserve energy for Nationals, it could be a different story. The Mountain region is pretty solid as we expect the top two to be BYU and Colorado. New Mexico, Utah, or NAU could possibly shake things up, but BYU and Colorado are safe bets. We're predicting New Mexico to finish 3rd (assuming Cohen returns), Northern Arizona 4th, Utah 5th, and Air Force 6th. That order could very easily change. With the exception of New Mexico, we simply based projections these off of our rankings. The Northeast region is interesting. There's a pretty good argument that Syracuse and Columbia will be the top two teams, but Boston College could play spoiler and knock out one of those groups from the top two. Don't be surprised if that happens. The top two in the South Central region and Southeast region are all pretty safe. Texas and Arkansas will cruise to automatic qualifiers like usual while NC State and Furman should make it out of the Southeast region unscathed. The South region is where there is less clarity. Florida State seems to be an easy pick to finish inside the top two, but you could make a pretty good argument for either Ole Miss or Georgia Tech. We currently have Georgia Tech ranked ahead of Ole Miss, but I chose to put the Rebels in the #2 spot because although they haven't been great, they have been a little more consistent. That said, I could totally understand an argument where Georgia Tech takes the second automatic qualifying spot. The Midwest is going to be a little different than usual this year. Minnesota and Illinois are the two heavy favorites while usual powerhouse Oklahoma State seems to be severely lacking on the backend of their lineup. Iowa State hasn't looked like a top two regional team either. You could, however, make an argument for the Tulsa women who were only 32 points behind Minnesota at Nuttycombe. Still, barring any surprises, you can expect Minnesota and Illinois to be in the top two. Finally, we have the Mid-Atlantic region. Truthfully, I have no idea what to expect here. It feels like five teams could realistically finish inside the top five. I'll take Penn State and Georgetown to finish inside the top two, but I don't at all feel confident about those picks (specifically Georgetown). Penn (who we're predicting to finish 3rd), West Virginia (who we're predicting to finish 4th), and Princeton (who were predicting to finish 5th) could all find their way inside the top two come November. At-Large Bid #1: Wisconsin Badgers With our automatic qualifying teams now decided, it's time to find out who will receive the 13 at-large bids to Nationals. Utah technically has the most points (10) at this point in the selection process, but they are not yet eligible for qualification since two teams who have not yet qualified for Nationals are projected to finish ahead of them in their region (New Mexico and Northern Arizona). The first qualifying spot goes to the Wisconsin women who have 8 points after beating Michigan State, Georgetown, Minnesota (twice), Syracuse, Columbia, Ole Miss, and Furman. Wisconsin gives one point to Utah who beat them at Joe Piane. At-Large Bid #2: Boise State Broncos The next two eligible teams are New Mexico and Boise State who both have 7 points. We must now go to the tie-breaker to decide who will get the next qualifying spot. Boise State beat New Mexico at Nuttycombe in a head-to-head matchup, so the Broncos will get the next spot to Nationals. Boise State gives one point to Northern Arizona who beat them at Nuttycombe. At-Large Bid #3: New Mexico Lobos New Mexico and Northern Arizona are now tied with 7 points for this spot, so we must go to the head-to-head tie-breaker. Northern Arizona beat New Mexico at Nuttycombe, but since New Mexico is projected to beat Northern Arizona at the Mountain Regional Championships, that means New Mexico gets the nod for this spot since their win was the most recent. New Mexico gives a point to Northern Arizona, Air Force, and Utah. At-Large Bid #4: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks The NAU women are the next group selected to go to Nationals thanks to their 8 Kolas points. Utah has 12 points and they are actually eligible to be selected. However, since Northern Arizona is projected to finish ahead of them in the region and because we want to avoid a push scenario, we are going to have NAU qualify first. This is because we know Utah will eventually get in later on. NAU now qualifies, but they do not give any teams any Kolas points. At-Large Bid #5: Utah Utes We can now finally select the Utah women who have an astounding 12 points. The Utes give one point to Air Force who beat them at Nuttycombe. At-Large Bid #6: Air Force Falcons The team with the next most points is Air Force who has 9 points. They do not give up any Kolas points to any other teams. At-Large Bid #7: Notre Dame Fighting Irish The next two teams eligible to be chosen for a spot to Nationals is Notre Dame and Oregon who both have 7 points. The Notre Dame women will be selected ahead of Oregon because Notre Dame beat Oregon at Nuttycombe in a head-to-head matchup. Notre Dame gives away no Kolas points. At-Large Bid #8: Oregon Ducks Now that Notre Dame is out of their way, we can now select the Oregon women who still have 7 points. They give one point to Ohio State since the Buckeyes beat them at Nuttycombe. At-Large Bid #9: Ohio State Buckeyes The Ohio State women are the next team selected with 6 points. They do not give away any Kolas points. At-Large Bid #10: Indiana Hoosiers Indiana is the next team selected as they have 4 points. They give one point to Boston College who beat them at Joe Piane. At-Large Bid #11: Boston College Golden Eagles The 29th overall spot and the 11th at-large bid is tied between Boston College and Oregon State who each have 2 points. This means we must go to the tie-breaker. Boston College and Oregon State never raced each other during the season, so we must compare their common opponents throughout the season and see who has the better winning percentage. After comparing the results of 18 common opponents, we find that the Boston College women easily trounce the Oregon State women. Boston College had a 50% win rate while Oregon State had a 27.7% win rate. This means Boston College is the next team selected. Boston College gives one point to Virginia Tech and one point to Butler after losing to each of those teams at Pre-Nats. At-Large Bid #12: Virginia Tech Hokies The #12 at-large bid is now tied between Virginia Tech, Butler, and Oregon State. Each of these teams have 2 points. We can already drop Butler from consideration since Virginia Tech beat them at Pre-Nats in a head-to-head matchup. However, since Virginia Tech never faced Oregon State during the season, we must compare their common opponents. Once that is calculated, you'll find that Virginia Tech has a better win percentage than Oregon State when comparing the six common opponents that the two teams faced this season. Virginia Tech had a win rate of 50% while Oregon State had a win rate of 42.8%. Therefore, Virginia Tech qualifies for Nationals. Virginia Tech does not give away any points. At-Large Bid #13: Butler Bulldogs The final spot to Nationals comes down to Butler and Oregon State. Each team has 2 points. These two teams never faced each other during the season, so we must compare common opponents. After comparing 15 common matchups, we find that the Butler women have a better winning percentage (30%) than the Oregon State women (26.6%). Therefore, Butler secures the final spot to Nationals. First Team Out: Oregon State Beavers The Oregon State Beavers are the First Team Out in our current projections. They are the only eligible team with 2 points left in the selection process.

  • Kolas Projections (Men): Update #1

    Women's projections coming tomorrow (Sunday, 10/27) Instead of overloading our KOLAS page with a ton of text, we decided to utilize our article feed to describe how our Kolas projections are expected to play out (as of right now). If the season ended today, who would be going to the Big Dance? Who would be ending their season early? Thanks to the incredible work from Bo Waggoner, we were able to work together to compile key Kolas-defining results and utilize his XC Quals calculator which allows users to input their predictions for the NCAA regional meets in order to get an expected output of the 31 teams expected to make it to Nationals. A big thank you to Bo for working with us on this project! We highly recommend you visit his site and play with the projections on your own. And before you ask, yes, the calculator understands how to take B Teams into consideration. If you haven't already, we also strongly suggest that you read our UNDERSTANDING KOLAS page to get a refresher on how the Kolas system works. There are a ton of caveats to consider and they can all greatly impact the NCAA qualifying picture... If the season ended today, here are the 31 projected teams that we have going to Nationals on the men's side... Before we get into discussing point totals, it's important that we make a few notes about our auto-lock teams (the squads who will finish in the top two of their region). We opted to put Villanova at 3rd in the Mid-Atlantic region with Georgetown taking 2nd. Villanova may actually be the better team this postseason, but we have yet to see them run their top squads. If they run their best seven runners at the BIG East Championships (and win), then the Hoyas and Wildcats will likely switch spots. The Northeast region will likely go to Iona and Syracuse (as usual). Despite the recent struggles from Syracuse and the quietly strong performances from teams like Stony Brook and Army, we have opted to keep the Orange and the Gaels in our top two. We still strongly believe that they will be the top two teams in the region. Then there is the West region. This is a tricky meet to decide because certain teams often don't run all-out efforts (i.e. Stanford in 2018) as they keep their focus solely on qualifying for NCAA's in an attempt to not exert any unnecessary effort. We have Stanford and UCLA in the top two spots of the region right now, but the tactics of that race could change things up. The same could be said for the Mountain and Great Lakes regions, but to a lesser extent. The Midwest regional meet will likely go to Iowa State and Tulsa. However, if Oklahoma State debuts their full lineup, we shouldn't be surprised to see them take a top two spot at the regional meet. Their firepower, when completely healthy, becomes increasingly more valuable in a regional field such as this. Even so, we will keep them at 3rd. The South region is up in the air in terms of auto-lock teams. Alabama hasn't debuted a full lineup yet while Ole Miss, Florida State, and Middle Tennessee State look like legitimate auto-lock contenders. We have decided to put Ole Miss and MTSU inside the top two of the region with Florida State 3rd and Alabama 4th. That, however, is not set in stone. It's a very similar story in the Southeast region. We feel relatively confident that NC State will be in the top two of their region, but recent rumors of a possible injury to #2 runner JP Flavin makes that assumption less viable. Even so, we have opted to go with NC State and Eastern Kentucky as the top two teams in that region. The order behind them will be extremely difficult to guess as it is truly a toss-up between Virginia Tech, Virginia, Furman, and maybe Duke. We'll take Virginia Tech at the 3rd spot, Virginia in 4th, Furman in 5th, and Duke in 6th...but that could very easily change. Alright...let's talk about the 13 at-large bids. At-Large Bid #1: Colorado Buffaloes Once all of the automatic qualifiers are calculated, the Buffs are clearly the first team in with a total of 9 points. They earned those points from Joe Piane and Pre-Nats where they beat Purdue, Indiana, Georgetown, Iona, Ole Miss (twice), Arkansas, NC State, and Eastern Kentucky. They do not give any teams any points since all of the teams who beat them earlier this year have already qualified for Nationals. At-Large Bid #2: Wisconsin Badgers The next team with the most points is technically Notre Dame with 7 points, but they are projected to finish 5th in their region, so they are not yet eligible for national qualification at this point in the selection process since Wisconsin and Michigan are the next two eligible teams ahead of them. Oregon also has 7 points and technically, they are eligible for national qualification. However, they are projected to finish 4th in their region behind Portland. Oregon could theoretically push Portland into the national meet, but the goal of the selection process is to avoid a a push scenario if we can. Since we know Oregon will qualify on their own later in the selection process, we're going to hold off on them for now. That means the teams with the next most points will be Wisconsin with 6 points. Michigan also has 6 points, but they are projected to finish 4th in the Great Lakes region behind Wisconsin. Therefore, the Badgers get the next qualification spot. Wisconsin had losses to Michigan and Notre Dame at Joe Piane, so each of those teams get one point. At-Large Bid #3: Michigan Wolverines Much like the Oregon/Portland situation, Notre Dame technically has the most points with 9 at this point of the selection process and they are now eligible to be chosen. However, they would push in Michigan who is one spot ahead of them. Since we know Notre Dame will qualify later in the selection process, we can stick with selecting the Michigan Wolverines who have 7 points. They give one point each to Oregon and Portland (since those teams beat them at Nuttycombe) and one point to Notre Dame (since the Irish beat Michigan at Joe Piane). At-Large Bid #4: Notre Dame Fighting Irish We can now finally select the Irish who have a whopping 10 points. Their performance at Nuttycombe will yield one point each to Oregon, Portland, Boise State, Southern Utah, and Utah State. At-Large Bid #5: Portland Pilots We can now finally select the Portland Pilots who are expected to finish 3rd in their region. They have 7 points. Oregon has more points than them at this point in the selection process (9), but like we saw earlier, we want to avoid a push scenario and we know Oregon will get in later on. Portland does not give away any points. At-Large Bid #6: Oregon Ducks We can now select the Oregon Ducks who have 9 points. They do not give away any points. At-Large Bid #7: Southern Utah Thunderbirds The team with the next most points is Boise State. They have 6 points. However, they are projected to finish behind Washington in the West region. Although the Broncos are eligible for qualification, we don't want a push scenario if we can avoid it. We know they will get in later on, so we'll hold off on them for now. That leaves us with Southern Utah and Utah State both at 5 points. Southern Utah is expected to finish 4th in their region while Utah State is expected to finish 5th. Colorado, who is projected to finish 3rd, was already selected. As a result, Southern Utah is the next team picked for Nationals. Southern Utah gives one point to Boise State (from Nuttycombe) and one point to Duke (from Roy Griak). At-Large Bid #8: Utah State Aggies While Boise State is still waiting their turn, we will now pick Utah State who has 6 points. They give away one point to Boise State from Nuttycombe. At-Large Bid #9: Washington Huskies Boise State is still waiting, but they won't be for much longer. The next two eligible teams with the most points are Washington and Virginia. They both have 3 points. Technically, Furman and Gonzaga have more points (both have 4), but there are two or more teams ahead of them in their region who have not yet qualified for Nationals. That is why they need to wait to be eligible for national qualification. Virginia is projected to finish 4th in their region behind Virginia Tech, but Virginia will not qualify for Nationals if we wait for Virginia Tech to be selected. For that reason, we must consider Virginia right now and have them push-in Virginia Tech if the Cavaliers win this tie-breaker with Washington. We must now decide a tie-breaker between Washington and Virginia. The two teams never faced each other during the regular season, so we have to see who has a higher win percentage against all of the same teams that they faced this season (remember, we haven't factored in conference meets in this Kolas update). After comparing 15 common opponents, Washington emerges with a slightly better win percentage over Virginia, 60% to 58.8%. Therefore, the Washington men are the next team selected. They give one point to Army, Stony Brook, and Harvard. At-Large Bid #10: Boise State Broncos With Washington now into the national meet and Boise State not needing to push anyone in, the Broncos are now selected for the #10 at-large spot. They have a total of 8 points in this stage of the selection process. Boise State does not give away any points. At-Large Bid #11: Gonzaga Bulldogs Now that all of the West region teams who finished ahead of them are into the national meet, Gonzaga can now qualify on their own. They have 4 points after beating Princeton, Georgetown, Syracuse, and Eastern Kentucky at Nuttycombe. Furman also has 4 points, but they are not yet eligible since Virginia Tech and Virginia are ahead of them in the regional results and neither of those teams have been selected to the national meet yet. With Gonzaga now qualifying, they give one point to Florida State, Iowa, and Wyoming. At-Large Bid #12: Florida State Seminoles The 30th spot overall and the #12 at-large bid is tied between Florida State and Virginia. Both teams have 3 points, so we must go to the tie-breaker scenario. These two teams have not yet raced each other in this Kolas update, so they will have to go to the common opponents tie-breaker. Keep in mind that this Kolas update does not factor in any conference meet results because conference meets have not yet been run. Florida State and Virginia will be facing off at ACC's next weekend, so that is an absolutely monumental match-up for both of these teams assuming the regional results match our projections. Whoever comes out ahead of the other at ACC's could cause a complete shift in our Kolas qualifying projections. When you compare the common opponents of each team, you'll find that Florida State has the edge. Between the 19 common opponents that they have faced so far this season, Florida State has a winning percentage of roughly 61.9% while Virginia has a win rate of 59%. Therefore, the Seminoles qualify for Nationals. Since there is only one spot left for Nationals, and Virginia is expected to finish 4th in their region behind Virginia Tech (3rd), there is no longer room for Virginia in the national meet since they would have to push Virginia Tech into Nationals if they were to qualify. In other words, Virginia is now out of the national qualifying picture after losing two tie-breakers by less than 3% each time. Ouch. This also means that Furman, despite having 4 points, is also out of the equation since they are expected to finish behind Virginia. At-Large Bid #13: Stony Brook Seawolves The final spot comes down to three teams. Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, and Stony Brook all have 2 points each. We must now go to a tie-breaker. Oklahoma State is immediately out of consideration since they lost a head-to-head battle against Virginia Tech at Pre-Nats. This leaves us with a tie-breaker between Virginia Tech and Stony Brook. Since these two teams never raced each other during the season, we must go to a common opponents tie-breaker. These two teams faced the same eight teams during the regular season, albeit at different meets. Virginia Tech beat six of those eight teams. Stony Brook beat seven of those eight teams. The one team that Virginia Tech didn't beat is Washington. Stony Brook beat Washington at Beantown. That single result from September saved Stony Brook's season and ended Virginia Tech's. Stony Brook gives one point to Army (who beat them at Beantown) and one point to Penn (who beat them at Paul Short). First Team Out: Army Black Knights Army had 2 points before Stony Brook qualified, but because they are expected to finish 4th in their region, they couldn't qualify since there was only one spot left to Nationals and Army would have had to push in Stony Brook in order to earn a spot. However, since Stony Brook gave Army another point, the Black Knights now have 3 points which is one point more than any other eligible, non-qualified team at this point in the selection process. Army is the First Team Out of NCAA's.

  • CCAA Championship Preview

    Men's preview written by John Cusick Women's preview written by Grace McLaughlin Men's Preview The CCAA has run through Chico State dating back to 2001 and to be quite honest, the chance of it staying with Chico after this weekend is high. There are two teams that have the firepower to dethrone the Wildcats, but they’ll have to overcome the overwhelming amount of depth that the Wildcats bring to the table. The Wildcats have only raced three times this year, but two of those times they came away with dominant performances. The first was at the Capital Cross Challenge where they scored 67 points and finished as the 2nd team overall behind only Cal Poly (a Division One program). Trad Berti, Matthew Herrera, and Wyatt Baxter all finished inside the top 10 in that race which were exceptional performances for them. The #4 and #5 scorers were Remington Breeze and Ramond Lopez who finished inside the top 30. Between Lopez and Berti, there was only 34 seconds giving them a very strong time spread. Fast forward to the WWU Classic and we see essentially the same thing, but this time over the course of 10,000 meters. Berti once again led the Wildcats, while Jhavan Holston, Baxter, Herrera and Breeze were the other scorers. Coach Towne has created a culture of team running and they execute that strategy perfectly almost every single year. I don’t expect that plan to be any different this upcoming weekend and it should end with a championship result. I mentioned two teams earlier that might have the firepower to take down Chico State and those two teams are Cal State San Marcos and UC San Diego. Both of these teams have had very strong seasons up until now and they should be able to at least hang with Chico for most of the race. Beginning with Cal State San Marcos, the Cougars started the season off strong when they knocked off Queens (N.C.) at their home meet with Joshua Litwiller, Kibrom Elias, and Shea Vavra going 3-4-5 that day. Robert Marin was 9th and Phillip Dorado was 12th, only 26 seconds back of Litwiller. They didn’t quite have the same performance at the Capital Cross Challenge where they only finished 6th as a team. They didn’t have the same pack time as they did at their home meet and that really hurt them there. Once again, they had a lackluster performance at Lewis Crossover causing some concern in terms of where they actually stand this year. If they can get back to their pack-running that we saw from them at the beginning of the year, there should be no issues for this team going forward, However, without racing as a pack, it might be tough to make any noise...at least in comparison to Chico. Now on to UC San Diego. They were the 3rd place team at the Cougar Challenge this year led by Samuel Blake’s strong run and win that day. Aren Johnson (7th), Brett Beattie (15th), Tim Corvese (16th) and Elijah Horwitz (22nd) were the scorers and they actually kept pace with both Cal State and Queens (N.C.), but still saw themselves on the outside looking in. At the Lewis Crossover, the Tritons took down Cal State and finished 3rd. They were 110 points back of Chico State, but have set themselves up nicely going forward. Blake didn’t finish near the top for his team which likely hurt them, but it still leaves this team with plenty of upside if he rebounds. In their last tune-up meet, Blake returned to his normal self finishing 2nd overall and led the team to a home course team victory. Both Cal State San Marcos and UC San Diego will need to have some very strong performances from their entire team in order to match the depth of Chico State. While anything is possible, I’m not so sure that the Wildcats are going to be slipping up any time soon. Men's Predictions Teams 1. Chico State Wildcats 2. UC San Diego Tritons 3. Cal State San Marcos Cougars Individuals 1. Samuel Blake (UC San Diego) 2. Trad Berti (Chico State) 3. Joshua Litwiller (Cal State San Marcos) 4. Wyatt Baxter (Chico State) 5. Matthew Herrera (Chico State) 6. Aren Johnson (UC San Diego) 7. Daniel Tull (Humbldt State) 8. Remington Breeze (Chico State) 9. Shea Vavra (Cal State San Marcos) 10. Earnon Smythe (Cal Poly Pomona) Women's Preview On the women’s side, Chico State (TSR #5) is the top team to beat going into the meet. Based on the Wildcats performances thus far, it is pretty safe to say they will dominate. Chico State started their season off with a 3rd place finish at the Stump Invite, then a stellar 5th place finish at the Capital Cross Challenge, and a team title at the Western Washington Cross Country Invitational. The top five at their last meet was Talia Swangler, Destiny Everett, Gracie Dupuis, Haley Boynton, and Nora Pizella. When you consider how well they ran at their last meet, don't be surprised if you see any of them in this lineup with Katie Hawley, Carrie McDonough, Taylor Bailey-Lustvan, and Jalen Burns this weekend. Chico State’s talent, depth, and consistency is unmatched in the CCAA and that should be enough for the Wildcats to bring home another conference championship. Following Chico State are the Cal State East Bay Pioneers who have been a pleasant surprise to watch this season. The Pioneers finished 2nd at the Southern Stampede and 11th at the loaded Capital Cross Challenge. Angelina Ranquillo is the team’s front runner, followed by consistent scorers Claire Fisher, Amanda Navarro, Andrea Romero, and Alondra Ortiz. The UC San Diego Tritons finished not far behind Cal State East Bay with a 15th place finish at the Capital Cross Challenge. Earlier in the season, the Tritons placed 1st at the Cougar Challenge and won their home meet two weeks ago. The team is led by Madalyne Coney, followed by Sam Rocke, Caitlin Billman, Isabelle Shepard, and Leila Keyvan. Camille Perkins and Kendra Corey should also be running for the Tritons. UC San Diego will be building upon an impressive season and should be able to continue their momentum in an effort to fight for the runner-up spot this weekend. At the Capital Cross Challenge, UC San Diego finished just one place ahead of Cal Poly Pomona. The Broncos placed 4th at the Cougar Challenge, were 16th at the Capital Cross Challenge, and won the Pomona-Pitzer Invitational. Luz Garcia is the team's top scorer, followed by consistent supporting scorers Elizabeth Hernandez and Araseli Servin. Other runners such as Pearl Burton, Britaney Solis, Samantha Aguilar, and Elli Kiener are expected to make up the latter half of this lineup come Saturday. Stanislaus State should easily finish in the top five based off of their performances from earlier in the season. The Warriors won the Kim Duyst Twilight Invitational and finished 18th at the Capital Cross Challenge. Unlike the previous teams, Stanislaus State does not have a main low-stick that the team can rally around. The runners inside their top seven have a relatively similar talent level and have been mixed up in the results throughout the season. I predict Devianna Salcedo, Nancy Juarez, Ruth Blanco, Makaelyn Bickel, Kayla Jacklich, Megan Oblin, and Teresa Castillo to be in the Warriors' conference lineup. The only team close to challenging Stanislaus State for 5th place is Cal State San Marcos who started out their season strong with a runner-up performance at the cougar Challenge and then a 20th place finish at the Capital Cross Challenge. On the individual side of things, Chico State should have several runners finish in the top 10. Wildcats Talia Swangler and Destiny Everett will be in the lead pack fighting for 1st place, while teammates Desirae Jones, Gracie Dupuis, and Nora Pizzella should be in the mix as well. Angelina Ranquillo of Cal State East Bay finished 23rd at the Capital Cross Challenge and may be considered as a sneaky strong sleeper pick for the win this weekend. Her teammates Claire Fisher and Amanda Navarro could also join her in the top 10. Luz Garcia of Cal Poly Pomona will be on the cusp of finishing in the top five when you consider that her season has been solid and consistent up to this point. Nancy Juarez of Stanislaus State has built herself an impressive resume and should also be in the top pack. Marianna McDonough of Cal State San Marcos is another talented runner the potential to be in the mix. Madalyne Coney of UC San Diego, who seems to be having a breakthrough season, finishes up my predictions for the top 10. Women's Predictions Teams 1. Chico State Wildcats 2. Cal State East Bay Pioneers 3. UC San Diego Tritons Individuals 1. Angelina Ranquillo (Cal State East Bay) 2. Talia Swangler (Chico State) 3. Destiny Everett (Chico State) 4. Luz Garcia (Cal Poly Pomona) 5. Claire Fisher (Cal State East Bay) 6. Amanda Navarro (Cal State East Bay) 7. Gracie Dupuis (Chico State) 8. Mariana McDonough (Cal State San Marcos) 9. Madalyne Coney (UC San Diego) 10. Nora Pizzella (Chico State)

  • MIAA Championship Preview

    Men's preview written by Quenten Lasseter Women's preview written by Grace McLaughlin Men's Preview Last year's MIAA Championship meet was not much of a contest as Missouri Southern won the team title by 70 points over Nebraska-Kearney. In 2019, the Lions will look to defend their title with yet another strong showing. Gideon Kimutai (TSR #1) has been dominant all season, proving to be the best runner in the country. Kimutai will lead the Lions this weekend after they successfully won the Southwest Baptist Invite and Missouri Southern Stampede. They also had an impressive 2nd place outing at the Lewis Crossover Classic, falling behind only Grand Valley State (TSR #3). Teammate Ryan Riddle has stepped up this year as well, making a case for the Lions to be more than just a conference winning team in 2019. He finished 6th at the Lewis Crossover meet which helped propel them to their runner-up performance. Meanwhile, Nickson Kiptoo and Cody Berry continue to be some of the best #3 and #4 scorers that we have seen this year. Northwest Missouri is the surprise team in the conference this year after they finished 10th out of 11 teams last year at the MIAA Championships. They have turned things around in a big way this year as they will contest Missouri Southern for the conference title. The Bearcats landed on our TSR Top 10 in our most recent update at #10. Leading the charge for them this year is Karim Achengli who is a returning All-American. However, it has been the transfers of Jhordan Ccope and Augostine Lisoreng who have bolstered this team. The added low-stick firepower of these two alongside Achengli has helped this team reach another level in terms of where they could possibly finish, not only at their conference meet, but the national meet as well. Northwest Missouri had a strong outing at the Chile Pepper Festival by placing 7th overall. They had three men in the top 40, along with their #4 man in the top 60. The only problem will be the Bearcats' final scorer. If they want to have any shot at taking down Missouri Southern, they will have to put all their pieces together this weekend as the two teams face off against each other. Men's Predictions Teams 1. Missouri Southern Lions 2. NW Missouri Bearcats 3. Nebraska-Kearney Lopers Individuals 1. Gideon Kimutai (Missouri Southern) 2. Karim Achengli (NW Missouri) 3. Cody Berry (Missouri Southern) 4. Corbin Hansen (Nebraska-Kearney) 5. Jhoordan Ccope (NW Missouri) 6. Ryan Riddle (Missouri Southern) 7. Nickson Kiptoo (Missouri Southern) 8. Augostine Lisoreng (NW Missouri) 9. Kevin Koester (Missouri Southern) 10. Mike Lagat (NW Missouri) Women's Preview On the women’s side of things, Missouri Southern has had the best season so far. They started off with winning the Southwest Baptist University XC Invite. They then had a fantastic 3rd place showing at the Southern Stampede before having a but of an off day at the Lewis Conference Crossover by placing 18th in the team standings At the Southern Stampede, the team's apparent front-runner was Ashlee Kuykendall who placed 3rd overall, but she did not race at Lewis which would explain their 18th place showing. Instead, Kelie Henderson and Julianna Determan led the way at Lewis by placing 44th and 56th, respectfully. There was a large gap between their #2 and #3 runners with Maegen Derfelt (148th), Mady Gepford (153rd), and Danielle Prince (180th) rounding out their top five. Despite the less than ideal recent result, the Lions should still be favored to take home the win this weekend. Central Missouri placed 3rd at the Southwest Baptist University XC Invite and had their best performance at the Chile Pepper XC Festival where they placed 3rd in the "B" race. Cynthia Togorn won the race at Chile Pepper and has led her squad throughout the entire season. Not too far behind was Risper Mengich in 4th and Mariah Elmore in 11th. Makenzie Stucker and Kenzie Bergman are the last of the consistent scorers for the Jennies. If Central Missouri has an ideal race, they could come out in front of Missouri Southern, especially if Kuykendall is still out for the Lions. Pittsburg State should easily be in the top three at the MIAA Championships this weekend. The Gorillas were 3rd at the UCO Land Run, then 5th at the Southern Stampede, and then 4th at the Rim Rock Collegiate Classic. At the Southern Stampede Invite, Piper Misse led the way with a very respectable 8th place finish and was followed closely by Cassidy Westhoff in 10th. This duo helps Pittsburg State tremendously in their team scoring. After a short gap, we saw Hannah Honeyman in 40th, Karli Blattner in 67th, and Halle Helfrich in 69th. Their top five have been pretty consistent this season and should have some confidence heading into the weekend. The Nebraska-Kearney Lopers started their season off with a 4th place finish at the Augustana Twilight Meet and were 21st at the Lewis Conference Crossover. Destiny Reinke had an impressive 19th place finish in the highly competition race at Lewis. Following Reinke was a duo consisting of Maddie Bach and Zoe Ritzs who finished in 85th and 89th, respectfully. The gap between their #3 and #4 runners is gigantic and this hurts the Lopers score tremendously. At Lewis their next runner was Sinclare Fiala in 199th, followed by Kennedy Krejdl in 226th. Despite the gap, the team has done pretty well and should be in the top five this weekend. Two other teams to watch are the Fort Hays State Tigers and Washburn Ichabods. On the individual side of things, the front-runners from these four teams will be the main discussion. Cynthia Togorn should be able to bring home the individual win for Central Missouri. Her teammate Risper Mengich should also join her at the front pack. Destiny Reinke of Nebraska- Kearney could battle with Togorn near the top portion of the pack and shouldn't be counted out in terms of a sleeper pick for the title. Her race at Lewis was very encouraging. Missouri Southern has a trio consisting of Ashlee Kuykendall, Kelie Henderson, and Julianna Determan who are all capable of mixing it up with the top group as well. Pittsburg State has front-runners Piper Misse and Cassidy Westhoff who should finish in the top 10 based on their impressive performances throughout the season. Brooke Navarro and Abigail Stewart of Fort Hays St. could be up there as well. Their best performances were at the FHSU Tiger Open where Navarro placed 8th while Stewart was a few spots back in 12th. The race for the individual title could go a lot of different ways, but I would place my bets on Cynthia Togorn. She has more experience and has been consistently successful throughout the season. We will see if she can keep the same momentum on Saturday. Women's Predictions Teams 1. Missouri Southern Lions 2. Central Missouri Jennies 3. Pittsburg State Gorillas Individuals 1. Cynthia Togorn (Central Missouri) 2. Destiny Reinke (Nebraska- Kearney) 3. Ashlee Kuykendall (Missouri Southern) 4. Piper Misse (Pittsburg State) 5. Risper Mengich (Central Missouri) 6. Cassidy Westhoff (Pittsburg State) 7. Kelie Henderson (Missouri Southern) 8. Julianna Determan (Missouri Southern) 9. Brooke Navarro (Fort Hays State) 10. Abigail Stewart (Fort Hays State)

  • NSIC Championship Preview

    Men's preview written by Quenten Lasseter Women's preview written by Grace McLaughlin Men's Preview Sioux Falls will be looking to defend their 2018 NSIC title, but they will have major work to do in order to defend their title this year. The Cougars have had a bit of a down year thus far compared to last season’s impressive 5th place finish at Nationals. At the Roy Griak Invitational and the Lewis Crossover meet, Sioux Falls finished behind conference rival Augustana ain both races. Although they do have a strong top three, the team is missing a consistent and proven backend at the #4 and #5 positions. Coming into the preseason, we thought that there would be a three-headed monster at the top with Mason Phillips, Steven Brown and Zach Lundberg. As of now, Brown has really been the only living up to the hype. Phillips has had a down year compared to his 2018 campaign (although he's still producing respectable results) and Lundberg hasn't really added a ton of scoring potency. The Cougars' top five spread at the Lewis Crossover was a whole two minutes. If they want to repeat as champions, they will have to find a way to bring their top three back together and use that to their advantage as they aren't as deep as the Augustana men are. Augustana, our TSR #7 ranked team in the nation, is on the prowl to take the NSIC out of Sioux Falls' hands. The Vikings really put their name on the map earlier this season after winning the Roy Griak Invitational. They continued to make improvements at the Lewis Crossover meet by placing 3rd overall against some of the best teams in the country. Aaron Runge and Jesus Urtusuatsegui have been the lead runners throughout the season for the Vikings. Along with Nathan Schroeder usually serving as their #3 man, it ultimately doesn't matter. It feels like this entire top five is interchangeable and that is huge when it comes to team racing. Team racing is the only kind of racing that the Vikings like to really do. Their pack spread at the Roy Griak Invitational was 1:13 between their top five. If we reference what we mentioned earlier, that's 47 seconds better than that of Sioux Falls. This rivalry runs deep and this weekend's race is going to be one for the books, you can mark our words. Men's Predictions Teams 1. Augustana (S.D.) Vikings 2. Sioux Falls Cougars 3. Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs Individuals 1. Steven Brown (Sioux Falls) 2. Aaron Runge (Augustana) 3. Nadir Yusuf (MSU-Moorhead) 4. Jesus Urtusuastegui (Augustana) 5. Nathan Schroeder (Augustana) 6. Mason Phillips (Sioux Falls) 7. Zach Lundberg (Sioux Falls 8. Austin Miller (Augustana) 9. Benjamin Allen (Concordia-St. Paul) 10. Skylar DeJong (Augustana) Women's Preview The Vikings of Augustana University are the favorites going into the meet. They started their season off with a 3rd place finish at the Augustana Twilight Meet, then they won the Roy Griak Invitational, and had a runner-up performance in their last race at the Lewis Conference Crossover. Claire Boersma, Cait Savey, and Nicolette Schmidt have been consistent low-sticks for the Vikings so far this year, acting as the main source of their scoring potency. The most impressive part of this team is their pack consisting of Rebekah Rairdon, Rachel Rairdon, Callin Naddy, Haylee Waterfall, and Patty Jo English. Their front-runners and strong supporting scorers make them lethal on the grass. The only other team that should put up a fight for the conference title is the Marauders of U-Mary. They started their season off with a 1st place finish at the MSU-Moorhead Dragon Invitational and followed it up with a runner-up result at Roy Griak. We should expect Ida Narbuvoll, Starlynn Costa, Kayla Ogle, Kiran Green, and Bree Erickson to be the scoring five. They have a clear front-runner and sidekick duo in Ida Narbuvoll and Starlynn Costa. The rest of their pack isn’t too far behind, but keeping the team close will be vital if they want to beat Augustana. U-Mary should have another impressive performance this weekend and a conference title is very much within their grasp. Following two of the top teams in the country is the Winona State Warriors. They started off their season with a 7th place finish at the Augustana Twilight Meet, followed by an impressive 11th place finish at the Lewis Conference Crossover, and then a win at the Lucian Rosa Invitational. Nikki Staffen, Nicole Kelley, Olivia Anger, Anna Roghan, and Alli Hendrickson have all brought underrated consistency to their team this year and it's been the biggest reason why they have had success. There is a solid group of women behind Hendrickson and any of them could infiltrate the top five for this team. Winona State has depth and consistency. They have set themselves up for a great postseason. We're predicting the Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs to take the 4th spot. They started their season with a 2nd place finish at the Oz Memorial Invite, then an 8th place finish at Roy Griak, and a 12th place finish at the Lewis Crossover Classic. I expect their top five to be Mackenzie Hall, Morgan Radel, Melissa Dreckhahn, Haleigh Reindl, and Elizabeth Schlafke. It should be a fun competition between Winona State and Minnesota-Duluth for bronze. The Beavers of Minot State are another notable team going into the meet. They were runner-up at the MSU-Moorhead Dragon Twilight Meet, 7th at the Southern Stampede, 9th at Roy Griak, and 4th at the University of North Dakota Ron Pynn Classic. Their top runners have rotated throughout the season, but have consisted of Ashley Franco, Whitney Hanson, Lauren Reeves, Abigail McGee, Nina Arias, Andrea Franco, and Kelci Lovercheck. On the individual side of things, the women of Augustana (S.D.) and U-Mary could take the top 10 spots (yes, just those two teams alone). The undeniable favorite to win the race is Ida Narbuvoll of U-Mary. Teammates Starlynn Costa and Kayla Ogle should also be up-front. Claire Boersma, Cait Savey, and Nicolette Schmidt of Augustana should all be in the mix as well. Women's Predictions Teams 1. Augustana (S.D.) 2. U-Mary Marauders 3. Winona State Warriors Individuals 1. Ida Narbuvoll (U-Mary) 2. Claire Boersma (Augustana (S.D.)) 3. Nicollette Schmidt (Augustana (S.D.)) 4. Cait Savey (Augustana (S.D.)) 5. Starlynn Costa (U-Mary) 6. Kayla Ogle (U-Mary) 7. Rebekah Riordan (Augustana (S.D.)) 8. Haley Waterfall (Augustana (S.D.)) 9. Rachel Riordan (Augustana (S.D.)) 10. Callin Naddy (Augustana (S.D.))

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