Written by Mike McKean & Garrett Zatlin NOTE: These rankings are based on how an individual fared throughout the entirety of a season, not just how they ran at a singular meet or (eventually) at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships. Click here to learn more about our ranking criteria. We will only list a max of 20 names in both our "Just Missed" section and our "Honorable Mentions" section (each). KEY (Unranked): Was not ranked in our last update. (#/#): First number indicates how much the athlete has moved in the rankings. The second number indicates where the athlete was ranked in our last update. ANOTHER NOTE:  The Stride Report does not typically put much ranking weight on the regional meet results. Oftentimes, certain teams and individuals will not place much emphasis on these races and will simply run with the goal of advancing to the national meet. This is not to say that all regional results are negligible (as you'll see below). However, you may notice less movement within our top-50 lists than usual in this week's update. 50. Mohamed Guled, Senior, Utah Valley (-13 / 37) Friday was not kind to Mohamed Guled who toed the line for the Mountain regional meet. There, he settled for a disappointing 22nd place finish. And unfortunately for him, that wasn't enough for the Utah Valley veteran to individually advance to the NCAA XC Championships. This is a tough pill to swallow. Guled had been quietly excellent throughout the fall months, wining the Griak Invite, the "B" race at Pre-Nationals and the WAC XC Championships. Sure, he didn't face the hardest schedule, but he did face a number of top names and emerged victorious over them. In our eyes, Guled did enough to stick around in our rankings, at least for this update. Even so, it was very possible that this UVU standout could have been an All-American on Saturday. 49. Thobias Cheruiyot, Freshman, Oklahoma (Unranked) An 8th place finish at the Midwest regional meet, while very solid, would not have been enough for Thobias Cheruiyot to be listed in our top-50 rankings. However, Friday's performance, paired with the rest of his seasonal resume, felt like a collection of results worthy of a top-50 result. Finishing 18th at the Joe Piane Invite, 6th at the Arturo Barrios Invite and 10th at the SEC XC Championships are all results that, independently, wouldn't have been enough for Cheruiyot to be ranked. But when you look at everything that Cheruiyot has done from a wholistic point of view, he seemed to be a good fit for our TSR #49 spot. 48. Sam Lawler, Junior, Syracuse (Unranked) After a slow start to the season, Sam Lawler has come alive for his championship races. A 47th place result at the Nuttycombe Invite was by no means a bad result, but a 34th place finish at Pre-Nationals felt more indicative of the All-American talent that Lawler possesses. When you combine a 10th place result at the ACC XC Championships with a runner-up finish at the Northeast Regional XC Championships, the Syracuse low-stick is setting himself up well to earn back-to-back All-American honors. The Orange junior’s elite consistency over the past two years has him slotted into our TSR #48 ranking. 47. Carson Williams, Senior, Furman (-5 / 42) A 12th place finish at the Southeast regional meet is hardly a poor result. Even so, Carson Williams was probably capable of finishing a few spots higher. And while we did have to drop him in our rankings, part of that was simply due to the success of other runners in our top-50. In the grand scheme of things, we didn't really learn anything new about Williams. He'll still be a fringe All-American contender, but his chances of landing in the top-40 at the national meet feel like a coin flip at this point. 46. Laban Kipkemboi, Rs. Freshman, Oklahoma State (Unranked) In our last individual rankings update, we noted that Laban Kipkemboi’s drop from our rankings did not feel indicative of the talent that he possesses. Yes, a disappointing result at the BIG 12 XC Championships was enough to justify a drop from our rankings, but we maintained the belief that the Cowboy freshman was still a top-50 runner. After a runner-up finish at the Midwest Regional XC Championships, we felt compelled to bring the Pokes’ newcomer back into our top-50. Taking down the likes of Robin Kwemoi Bera (TSR #14), Said Mechaal (TSR #27) and Abraham Chelangam (TSR #28) this past weekend feels noteworthy! It feels worth mentioning that Oklahoma State’s team title hopes would be vastly improved with a huge performance from Kipkemboi come Saturday. There’s no denying his talent. As such, we find him positioned at TSR #46. 45. Michael Mireles, Junior, UCLA (-13 / 32) The Bruins' low-stick takes a dive in our rankings after a disappointing 21st place finish at the West Regional XC Championships. Unfortunately for Michael Mireles, his worst race of the season came at the worst possible time. What hurts even worse is that Mireles missed qualifying for the NCAA XC Championships. A national meet without the UCLA ace feels criminal. After his huge runner-up finish at the BIG 10 XC Championships, we felt that the Bruin star reached upper-echelon star status. However, after this past weekend’s result, we’ll have to wait until 2025 for that to come to fruition. That being said, Mireles’ regular season performances were far too impressive to drop him from our top-50, entirely. His TSR #45 ranking reflects that. 44. Camren Todd, Senior, Utah State (0 / 44) It's admittedly hard to get a gauge on Camren Todd's 14th place finish at the Mountain regional meet. On one hand, you would think that the 17th place finisher from Pre-Nationals was capable of a better finish. But on the other hand, many of the men who beat Todd are considered national-caliber names. It's also hard to know how much emphasis Utah State was putting on this meet and it's also hard to know how much the jump up to the 10k racing distance affected Todd. In the grand scheme of things, our opinion of Todd hasn't changed...at all. And sure enough, that is reflected in this ranking. 43. Zouhair Redouane, Freshman, California Baptist (-5 / 38) Zouhair Redouane takes a dip in our rankings after another underwhelming result at the West Regional XC Championships. A 12th place result in a competitive regional race is not necessarily bad by any means, but it feels like we’ve been waiting for the version of Zouhair Redouane that we saw in October. The freshman Moroccan star made waves earlier in the year after a 6th place finish at the Joe Piane Invite and a 10th place finish at Pre-Nationals. In October, Redouane and teammate Valentin Soca established themselves as one of the most lethal 1-2 punches in the country. We became so accustomed to seeing Redouane and Soca finishing alongside one another that, admittedly, we felt a bit disappointed that Redouance wasn’t closer to his counterpart Soca, who finished 3rd this past weekend. That being said, the Lancer freshman’s performances at two highly competitive regular season races in October hold weight in his ranking. A TSR #43 ranking may not be where we expected Redouane to be after his October efforts, but it still feels respectful to the talent that he possesses. 42. Isaac Alonzo, Senior, Texas (+4 / 46) Isaac Alonzo has quietly stacked one great result after another this season. The Texas low-stick has competed admirably against elite upper-echelon stars from Oklahoma State, Alabama and Arkansas for the past two months. A 7th place finish at the Cowboy Jamboree combined with a 32nd place finish at Pre-Nationals was enough for Alonzo to stay on our radar. However, a 7th place finish at the SEC XC Championships told us that the Longhorn senior could no longer be denied a spot in our top-50 rankings. A 4th place result at the South Central Regional XC Championships was yet another result where Alonzo mixed up with the elite stars of Arkansas (most notably Patrick Kiprop and Kirami Yego), even if he didn't beat them. The Texas ace has proven that he can be competitive in a variety of fields this year, and his willingness to compete with the best feels notable as well. For those reasons, a TSR #42 ranking feels indicative of the talent that he has shown throughout the fall months. 41. Dylan Throop, Senior, Penn (+8 / 49) When Dylan Throop finished in 4th place at the Paul Short Run, we were encouraged. He had proven to be a formidable name in the fall of 2023 and it seemed like he had a good starting point to build off of in 2024. Sure enough, Throop's stock has slowly and steadily risen after placing 5th at the Princeton Fall Classic, 2nd at the Ivy League XC Championships and now 3rd at the Mid-Atlantic Regional XC Championships. When you look at the entirety of Throop's resume, it's hard to think that his stock has dropped at any point. While a 3rd place finish at a fairly weak regional meet may not seem super exciting, it does suggest that the Quaker standout is still at the peak of his fitness going into the national meet. 40. Valentin Soca, Sophomore, California Baptist (+5 / 45) A 3rd place finish at the West regional meet is a much more encouraging result after seeing Valentin Soca underwhelm a bit at the WAC XC Championships. Not only that, but that performance also validates the idea that Soca will fare well on the national stage now that we have moved up to the 10k racing distance. There is no denying that Soca is an All-American-caliber runner. However, his history in the postseason isn't necessarily amazing, either. That, in turn, has left us feeling a bit conflicted given that he has never been this good throughout the entirety of a season before. 39. Will Zegarski, Rs. Sophomore, Butler (+4 / 43) We have to admit that we're putting limited emphasis on the Great Lakes regional meet results. After all, it was fairly clear that the Wisconsin men simply cruised to an automatic national qualifier and didn't do anything more than they had to. Even so, Will Zegarski's win on Friday deserves a nod of respect, something that is reflected in a four-spot boost of his ranking. He threw in a hard sprint to finish line and lunged forward to barely win the Great Lakes regional title. We felt pretty confident that this was going to be Zegarski's big breakout season. And for the most part, he has validated that suspicion. He'll need to secure an All-American honor to cap it all off, but the Butler ace has shown some underrated consistency this fall. 38. Dylan Schubert, Senior, Furman (+3 / 41) While we don’t put too much emphasis on regional results, a bronze medal at the Southeast Regional XC Championships deserves some recognition. That 3rd place result has to give Dylan Schubert some confidence heading into the national meet, especially considering that he took the scalps of Parker Wolfe (TSR #8), Ethan Strand (TSR #6) and Gary Martin (TSR #16). Although, admittedly, many of those men were likely holding back in an effort to preserve themselves for the national meet. After his dominant win at the Southern Conference XC Championships, we felt like Schubert was inching his way back to the 2023 form that saw him finish 24th at the NCAA XC Championships. With the Paladin star backing that up with an impressive regional result, we feel confident in his chances of earning another All-American honor this weekend. As such, a TSR #38 ranking feels plenty justified. 37. George Couttie, Sophomore, Virginia Tech (+10 / 47) What an impressive run from George Couttie! A win at the Southeast Regional XC Championships earns the Hokies' sophomore star a spot in the All-American portion of our rankings! What feels most impressive is that the former D2 standout seems to be getting better each week. In fact, Couttie feels like a freight train coming into this weekend’s NCAA XC Championships. Pairing a regional title with first-team All-ACC honors builds quite the postseason resume for the Virginia Tech low-stick. Couttie is red-hot run going into this weekend’s national meet. With all of the momentum in the world behind him, you have to wonder what his ceiling could be in Madison, Wisconsin. 36. Luke Tewalt, Senior, Wake Forest (-3 / 33) A 15th place finish at the Southeast regional meet is fine, but it certainly doesn't help Luke Tewalt's stock. At the very least, Tewalt was capable of being a top-10 finisher. Of course, the Wake Forest men knew that they didn't need to go all-out even without the scoring services of Rocky Hansen. We wouldn't look too closely at this result for Tewalt who has, for the most part, shown that he is an All-American favorite going into this year's national meet. 35. Dominic Serem, Freshman, Toledo (0 / 35) A 3rd place finish at the Great Lakes Regional XC Championships is roughly on par with what we expected to see out of this Toledo ace. That result doesn't change our opinion of Dominic Serem in any significant way, but it does provide even more validation to the success that he's already had this fall. At the end of the day, how Serem handles his inexperience on an overwhelming stage like the NCAA XC Championships will be the difference between him being or not being an All-American. 34. David Mullarkey, Senior, Northern Arizona (+5 / 39) Seeing David Mullarkey place 5th at the Mountain Regional XC Championships doesn't really tell us anything that we didn't already know about him. That being said, besting guys like Creed Thompson (TSR #26), Joey Nokes (TSR #21) and Vincent Chirchir (TSR #32) are impressive scalps for the British distance runner...even if they may not have been going all-out. A slight bump in our rankings to TSR #34 feels reflective of the elite consistency that he has shown as a leader for this Lumberjack squad. Make no mistake about it, despite Mullarkey’s fringe All-American ranking, we feel extremely confident in the reliable veteran’s ability to earn yet another All-American honor this weekend. 33. Marco Langon, Junior, Villanova (+3 / 36) Yet again, Marco Langon has put together another strong effort. A 2nd place finish at the Mid-Atlantic Regional XC Championships regional meet perfectly aligns with the seasonal resume of this Villanova standout, and it further proves that this is by far his most consistent season we’ve seen to date. The consistency that the Wildcat junior provides as a secondary low-stick behind Liam Murphy assures us that Villanova’s 1-2 punch is the real deal. Langon’s quest for his first All-American honor on the grass is more in reach than ever. A TSR #33 ranking tells us that. 32. Vincent Chirchir, Freshman, New Mexico (+2 / 34) It seems like the New Mexico men wanted to put forth a somewhat honest performance with their national qualifying effort on Friday. As a result, they ended up crowding the top of the Mountain regional meet field to earn the second automatic national qualifying spot. Of course, with teams like Northern Arizona and BYU clearly not going all-out for that race, it's hard to move Vincent Chirchir in our rankings more than we are now. 31. Rocky Hansen, Sophomore, Wake Forest (-22 / 9) It feels like déjà vu with Rocky Hansen. After a stellar start to the season with a runner-up performance at the Nuttycombe Invite, the Demon Deacon sophomore star seems to have been bitten by the injury/illness bug yet again (this time being the latter). A 32nd place finish at the ACC XC Championships was clearly an "off" day by the Wake Forest low-stick who battled illness and heat exhaustion on that stage. And after a result like that, it didn't surprise us that Hansen sat out of the Southeast Regional XC Championships. On his best day, Rocky Hansen is a top-10 runner in the country. Unfortunately, we haven’t seen that version of him since September. Because of that, we feel obligated to drop Hansen to TSR #31. Despite all of that, we’re acutely aware that if Hansen toes the line on Saturday fully healthy, then he could make this ranking look silly. 30. Will Anthony, Junior, Virginia (-1 / 29) Will Anthony is admittedly a difficult name to analyze. On one hand, a 9th place finish at the Southeast Regional XC Championships is a respectable result that requires an honest effort. On the other hand, Anthony has been far stronger in other races this season and there wasn't much urgency in this race for the Virginia men. Just look at ACC champion Gary Martin who settled for 12th place. In the grand scheme of things, Friday's performance doesn't really change how we view Anthony. We still see him as a high floor distance talent who should be favored for All-American honors on Saturday. 29. Matt Strangio, Senior, Portland (+1 / 30) A runner-up finish at the West Regional XC Championships doesn't really change our view of Matt Strangio. He's been incredibly consistent all season long and he continues to deliver on the All-American talent that we've known he holds. Yes, he was soundly defeated by Evans Kurui (TSR #23) for the second time this season. Even so, that doesn’t change the fact that the Pilot veteran has proven that he’s a top-30 talent this fall. At the end of the day, we’re going to be looking for the Portland low-stick to fully execute on the national stage, something that he has struggled to do in the past. That being said, if this fall has been any indication, Strangio won’t have any issues capitalizing on his already impressive season. 28. Abraham Chelangam, Sophomore, Oral Roberts (0 / 28) Earlier this season, we saw Abraham Chelangam toe the line for the Cowboy Jamboree and the Weis-Crockett Invitational. In both of those races, the rising Oral Roberts star had to face Oklahoma State's contingent of distance stars. And in both of those efforts, he held his own. That's why Chelangam's 5th place finish at the Midwest Regional XC Championships holds limited weight for us. We already knew that Chelangam was capable of competing with a handful of Oklahoma State's scorers, but even then the Cowboys weren't going all-out on Friday. Even so, this is the third race where Chelangam has remained competitive with the men from Stillwater, Oklahoma. That's an encouraging sign as we inch closer to Saturday. 27. Said Mechaal, Senior, Iowa State (+4 / 31) A 4th place result at the Midwest Regional XC Championships provides further evidence that Said Mechaal has extended the elite consistency that we saw in 2023 to 2024. The Cyclone veteran continues to be one of the most reliable runners in the country. Not only that, but it appears that the Iowa State senior is peaking at the right time. His progression throughout the season is noteworthy, and pairing a 10th place finish at the BIG 12 XC Championships with a 4th place result this past weekend shows us that his floor is still incredibly high. Earning a first-time All-American honor on the grass feels well within grasp for Mechaal. In fact, cracking the top-30 on Saturday feels plausible. 26. Creed Thompson, Senior, BYU (+1 / 27) Whether or not Creed Thompson and his BYU teammates were going all-out on Friday at the Mountain regional meet doesn't really matter. Seeing the Cougar veteran secure a 6th place finish was perfectly on par with our expectations for him, but it didn't tell us anything new about Thompson, either. 25. Victor Shitsama, Senior, Oklahoma State (+1 / 26) It seems pretty clear that, after looking at the results, Victor Shitsama put forth what appears to be a conservative effort with teammate Brian Musau at the Midwest Regional XC Championships. Admittedly, it has been tough to gauge where the Oklahoma State veteran stands on a national stage with his limited racing schedule. However, after a 9th place finish at the BIG 12 XC Championships, we feel much more inclined to rank Shitsama at TSR #25. And after factoring in the senior’s past national meet performances, it’s easy to justify this ranking when he has four All-American honors to his name on the grass. As one of the most reliable runners in the NCAA, Shitsama feels like a lock to earn his fifth and final All-American honor on the grass this weekend. 24. Cole Sprout, Senior, Stanford (0 / 24) It was business as usual for Cole Sprout this past Friday who took 4th place at the West Regional XC Championships. The result feels on par for Sprout who has yet to have a poor performance this season. While it is a largely unsurprising result, the consistency that the Cardinal veteran has displayed this season feels noteworthy given the previous struggles that he has had. In his last race on the grass in the cardinal and white, Sprout feels destined to put the cherry on top of what has been a fairly complete fall campaign. 23. Evans Kurui, Freshman, Washington State (+2 / 25) With another postseason result under Evans Kurui’s belt, we’ve had the luxury of learning more and more about the Cougar ace after each performance. This past weekend’s dominant win at the West Regional XC Championships gives us even more evidence that Kurui is a top-half All-American threat heading into the NCAA XC Championships. After adding Cole Sprout (TSR #24) to the list of elite runners whom he has bested this season, Kurui’s freshman campaign becomes more impressive by the week. The Kenyan newcomer has only been defeated by Ernest Cheruiyot (TSR #11) and Mohamed Guled so far this year. But how will he fare against the rest of the NCAA’s upper-echelon stars? While we wait and see, a TSR #23 ranking feels fair. 22. Dennis Kipruto, Freshman, Alabama (+1 / 23) A clean 1-2-3 sweep from the Alabama men at the South Regional XC Championships was hardly surprising. No other men in that field were of the same caliber as the Crimson Tide's elite trio, although Christopher Middleton-Pearson (Tennessee) did come within two seconds of Kipruto. Even so, the Kenyan rookie did his job and has yet to have a truly poor race this season. However, the Alabama men have struggled on the national stage in previous seasons. With that in mind, will Kipruto be able to shake off his inexperience and produce an All-American finish in Madison, Wisconsin? 21. Joey Nokes, Senior, BYU (+1 / 22) There's not much to report here. Joey Nokes took 9th place at the Mountain Regional XC Championships. Of the eight men who finished ahead of him, three of them were his teammates. Friday was clearly meant to be a conservative effort with the NCAA XC Championships being the bigger point of emphasis. 20. James Corrigan, Junior, BYU (+1 / 21) Has not competed since our last rankings update. 19. Yaseen Abdalla, Senior, Arkansas (+1 / 20) Has not competed since our last rankings update. 18. Dismus Lokira, Freshman, Alabama (+1 / 19) Winning the South Regional XC Championships title further complemented Dismus Lokira’s exceptional freshman campaign. Comfortably besting teammates Victor Kiprop (TSR #17) and Dennis Kipruto (TSR #22) this past weekend gives us confidence that the Crimson Tide rookie is undoubtedly a top-20 threat on the national stage. The Alabama talent continues to develop a better feel for racing in the NCAA. Now that the racing distance has increased to his specialty (10k), we feel like Lokira can establish himself as one of the top distance talents in the country. This strength-based star has the potential to shatter his TSR #18 ranking this weekend, but he’ll need to prove it against one of the most top-heavy fields that we’ve ever seen in the NCAA. 17. Victor Kiprop, Senior, Alabama (0 / 17) As mentioned above, Victor Kiprop was the 2nd place finisher in Alabama's 1-2-3 sweep of the South Regional XC Championships. He was only four seconds behind teammate Dismus Lokira and frankly, there wasn't any reason for him to chase after his teammate. 16. Gary Martin, Junior, Virginia (0 / 16) We'll admit, an 8th place finish at the Southeast Regional XC Championships isn't exactly an on-par result for someone who just won the ACC XC Championships two weeks ago. Even so, you have to imagine that a veteran star like Gary Martin knows how to conserve himself in races like the regional meet. And on top of that, it’s important to consider how elite Gary Martin has been over the course of the entire season. Back-to-back wins between the Panorama Farms XC Invite and ACC XC Championships holds a lot of weight when deciding where to rank the Cavalier star. Those results make it clear that Martin has ascended into the upper-tier echelon of cross country. As such, we find the Virginia junior standing pat at TSR #16. 15. Kirami Yego, Senior, Arkansas (+3 / 18) By winning the South Central Regional XC Championships, Kirami Yego finds himself leaping into our TSR #15 spot. The Razorback veteran has been stellar all season long and this past weekend was no different. So far this season, Yego has only lost to the following athletes: Habtom Samuel (TSR #1), Graham Blanks (TSR #4), Patrick Kiprop (TSR #5), Robin Kwemoi Bera (TSR #14), Bob Liking (TSR #12), Justine Kipkoech (TSR #13) and Patrick Kiprop (TSR #17). I don’t know about you, but that’s incredible company to be in. Quite frankly, we wouldn’t be shocked to see the Arkansas veteran take down some of those names this weekend. With the momentum that Yego has gained throughout the course of the season and Arkansas’ team podium finish aspirations being brought to the start line, a top-10 finish on Saturday is by no means out of the question. 14. Robin Kwemoi Bera, Freshman, Iowa State (-1 / 13) Regardless of how much effort the top teams were putting in, a 3rd place finish at the Midwest regional meet perfectly matches our expectations for Robin Kwemoi Bera. However, what was more telling was that he crossed the line alongside his teammate Said Mechaal who recorded the same time. With Oklahoma State clearly holding back and the Midwest region in general lacking top-tier competition, it's hard to put much emphasis on the results of that meet. 13. Justine Kipkoech, Freshman, Eastern Kentucky (-2 / 11) Justine Kipkoech got the job done at the Southeast Regional XC Championships with a runner-up effort on Friday. It’s clear that the Colonel rookie has benefitted greatly from added experience over the course of the season. As Kipkoech entered the NCAA with jaw-dropping times of 3:32 (1500) and 7:38 (3k), we weren’t sure how he’d fare on the grass over the longer distances. However, it’s safe to say that he has transitioned smoothly after holding his own over the 10-kilometer distance. Not to mention, Kipkoech’s previous result on the Thomas Zimmer Championship Course (3rd at Pre-Nationals) was his most impressive effort of the season. If he can replicate that success on the same course this weekend, then we could see Kipkoech finishing lower than 13th. 12. Bob Liking, Senior, Wisconsin (0 / 12) Based on the results, it was incredibly clear that Bob Liking was putting forth a conservative effort at the Great Lakes Regional XC Championships as he crossed the line with Badger teammates Rowen Ellenberg, Matan Ivri, Adam Spencer and Micah Wilson. For the Wisconsin ace to have the luxury of being able to conserve energy is a huge advantage. As we enter the NCAA XC Championships this weekend, Liking will be somewhat rested, and that’s not something that all competitors can say. 11. Ernest Cheruiyot, Sophomore, Texas Tech (+3 / 14) While Solomon Kipchoge and Habtom Samuel pulled away at the Mountain Regional XC Championships, it was Ernest Cheruiyot who beat everyone else with a 3rd place finish. Whether or not the Texas Tech duo and Habtom Samuel were putting forth their hardest efforts doesn't really matter. It seems fairly clear that BYU and NAU were both being fairly conservative with their racing tactics on Friday. So while we do like this performance for Cheruiyot, the Mountain regional meet doesn't feel like an accurate assessment of who the Red Raider star can or cannot beat come Saturday. 10. Denis Kipngetich, Sophomore, Oklahoma State (+5 / 15) Despite everything we said above about our limited amount of emphasis on the Midwest regional results, Denis Kipngetich still makes a move back into our top-10. That, of course, is because he secured the title in a Midwest region which features two podium favorites (Oklahoma State and Iowa State). But truthfully, the bigger reason why we're bringing Kipngetich back into our top-10 is simply because we're correcting ourselves from our last rankings update. Suggesting that Kipngetich was the 15th-best cross country runner in the NCAA this fall seemed like a stretch. As such, we're using this rankings update to make the proper corrections. 9. Casey Clinger, Senior, BYU (+1 / 10) Seeing Casey Clinger earn a 4th place finish at the Mountain Regional XC Championships wasn't a surprise for anyone. Sure, he didn't hang with the likes of Solomon Kipchoge, Habtom Samuel or Ernest Cheruiyot, but there was no need for him to chase that pack. After all, Saturday's season finale holds all of the importance. 8. Parker Wolfe, Senior, North Carolina (0 / 8) After an "off" day at the ACC XC Championships (where he still earned an excellent 3rd place finish), Parker Wolfe cruised to a 6th place finish at the Southeast regional meet. There, he crossed the line at the same time as teammate Ethan Strand. Friday was clearly meant to be as easy as reasonably possible for North Carolina's top duo. Of course, that still leaves us with plenty of questions regarding where Wolfe's fitness is currently at. 7. Liam Murphy, Senior, Villanova (0 / 7) Liam Murphy taking home the title at the Mid-Atlantic Regional XC Championships was one of the most unsurprising results of the weekend. That said, the Wildcat low-stick’s ability to win races he’s heavily-favored in is nothing to down play. The Villanova senior has taken care of business all season long. As we head into the NCAA XC Championships, only three names have bested Murphy this season: Ethan Strand (TSR #6), Parker Wolfe (TSR #8) and Rocky Hansen (TSR #31). That feels notable as we enter the national meet and it gives us an extreme amount of confidence in Murphy’s ability to earn a top-10 finish on Saturday. 6. Ethan Strand, Senior, North Carolina (0 / 6) Just like we mentioned above, the UNC duo of Ethan Strand and Parker Wolfe placed 5th and 6th, respectively at the Southeast regional meet. It seems fairly clear that both of those men were holding back and we're not necessarily surprised that they did. 5. Patrick Kiprop, Senior, Arkansas (0 / 5) Patrick Kiprop (3rd) was part of a 1-2-3 sweep for the Arkansas men at the South Central Regional XC Championships this past Friday. The Razorbacks cruised through their region without a couple of key names and it was apparent that Kiprop was not going all-out. 4. Graham Blanks, Senior, Harvard (-1 / 3) Graham Blanks’ dominant win at the Northeast Regional XC Championships was, arguably, the most expected result of the weekend. He takes a small dip in our rankings to TSR #4 spot only because of the brilliant performance that we saw from Solomon Kipchoge. A dip in our rankings aside, Blanks has delivered upon expectations during the course of the year. Yes, he was soundly defeated by Habtom Samuel at Pre-Nationals, but the Harvard ace has been stacking great performances of his own. Weirdly enough, it almost feels like the defending national champion is entering this weekend under the radar. That may just be the perfect spot for the Crimson senior to “upset” some popular choices for the individual crown. 3. Solomon Kipchoge, Freshman, Texas Tech (+1 / 4) After defeating Habtom Samuel (TSR #1) and taking home the win at the Mountain Regional XC Championships this weekend, Solomon Kipchoge has provided even further proof that he needs to be in the individual national title conversation. After narrowly being defeated by Brian Musau (TSR #2) at the BIG 12 XC Championships a couple weeks ago, it’s clear that Kipchoge wanted to make a statement by defeating Habtom Samuel...even if these regional results hold very limited weight. With the jump to the 10k racing distance being advantageous for the Texas Tech 59:37 half-marathoner, it truly feels like he’s capable of taking home the win on Saturday. That being said, Musau and Samuel get the slight edge over the Red Raider when you look at head-to-head results and each athlete’s season resume as a whole. A TSR #3 ranking feels fair...for now. 2. Brian Musau, Sophomore, Oklahoma State (0 / 2) A 6th place finish at the Midwest Regional XC Championships may seem concerning for someone who is considered to be a national title contender. At the same time, Musau crossed the finish line at the same time as teammate Victor Shitsama. It was clear that the Oklahoma State men were directed to take things easy if they could and we certainly don't blame them for doing so. 1. Habtom Samuel, Sophomore, New Mexico (0 / 1) A runner-up finish at the Mountain Regional XC Championships may not have been what we expected from Habtom Samuel coming into the weekend, but it’s certainly not a poor result. Samuel remains at our TSR #1 spot despite head-to-head losses to Brian Musau and Solomon Kipchoge. The Lobo’s dominant win at Pre-Nationals still carries weight in these rankings, especially considering this weekend’s race will be contested on that same course. That being said, the gap between the top-four athletes in our rankings feels incredibly slim. But with Samuel’s aggressive and intentional racing strategy from his last appearance on this course still fresh on our minds, we feel he’s deserving of the top spot. ADDED Thobias Cheruiyot (Oklahoma) Sam Lawler (Syracuse) Laban Kipkemboi (Oklahoma State) KICKED OFF Collins Kiprotich (New Mexico) Nathan Green (Washington) Patrick Kiprop (Cincinnati) JUST MISSED (in no particular order) Collins Kiprotich (New Mexico) Collins Kiprop Kipngok (Kentucky) Nathan Green (Washington) Patrick Kiprop (Cincinnati) Simeon Birnbaum (Oregon) Aiden Smith (Oregon) Aidan Troutner (BYU) Davin Thompson (BYU) Lucas Bons (BYU) Fouad Messaoudi (Oklahoma State) HONORABLE MENTIONS (in no particular order) Davis Bove (Cal Poly) Bernard Cheruiyot (Tulane) Jack Jennings (Tulane) Santiago Prosser (Norther Arizona) Colin Sahlman (Northern Arizona) Joash Ruto (Iowa State) Colton Sands (North Carolina) Douglas Buckeridge (Purdue) Ryan Schoppe (Oklahoma State) JoJo Jourdon (Wake Forest) Notes - N/A

NOTE: These rankings are based on how a team fared throughout the entirety of a season , not just how they ran at a singular meet or (eventually) at the 2024 NCAA XC Championships. Click here to learn more about our ranking criteria (which was published in 2023). KEY (Unranked): Was not ranked in our last update. (#/#): First number indicates how much the team has moved in the rankings. The second number indicates where the team was ranked in our last update. ANOTHER NOTE:  The Stride Report does not typically put much ranking weight on the regional meet results. Oftentimes, certain teams will not place much emphasis on these races and will simply run with the goal of advancing to the national meet. This is not to say that all regional results are negligible (as you'll see below). However, you may notice less movement within our top-25 lists than usual in this week's update. 25. Butler Bulldogs (Unranked) The Butler men continue to sit on the fringes of our team rankings, this time returning to our top-25 list after dropping out earlier this season. That's because the Bulldogs snagged a 3rd place finish (beating Michigan State on the tie-breaker) at the Great Lakes regional meet, narrowly advancing to this year's national meet. Will Zegarski's regional title was excellent to see as was Austin Gabay and Florian Le Pallec both cracking the top-10. That was a nice injection of firepower, especially considering that Butler's backend scorers settled for finishes of 36th place and 50th place. This has admittedly not been the dream season that some of us at The Stride Report thought Butler was capable of having in 2024. Le Pallec hasn't been himself (although he's been better lately) while both Jesse Hamlin and Matthew Forrester have been absent from racing entirely. Even so, the Bulldogs have done enough to remain competitive. And as long as their top-three holds their own on the national stage, then they should be able to muster up a top-25 finish on Saturday. 24. Colorado Buffaloes (Unranked) It hasn't exactly been the most exciting fall campaign for a Colorado team that has produced a mixed bag of results this season. Thankfully for them, they upended a very respectable Wyoming team at the Mountain regional meet on Friday to place 5th overall, just five points behind Utah State. We've been wanting more from the Buffaloes in recent weeks. Not having a runner inside of the top-15 this past Friday while the rest of their scorers were fairly spread out wasn't ideal. And given how talented we know Isaiah Givens, Kole Mathison, Dean Casey and Simon Kelati are, it feels like Colorado should be better. And yet, the fact that they've remained nationally competitive despite multiple men not reaching expectations is actually fairly impressive. In our eyes, their ceiling is higher than their floor is lower -- and that's a good thing. They need more firepower moving forward, but salvaging a 5th place result despite not reaching their full potential is, in a weird way, slightly encouraging. 23. Eastern Kentucky Colonels (Unranked) A 3rd place finish at the Southeast regional meet was a nice result for the Eastern Kentucky men, but it also didn't tell us anything new about the Colonels. The return of Taha Er Raouy has been encouraging and he's a big reason why we opted to put EKU back inside of our top-25. Sure, he wasn't necessarily a low-stick on Friday (placing 20th overall), but he was a great secondary scorer who raises the floor of this team by quite a bit. The backend depth and supporting cast also looked really solid for the Colonels on Friday as six men in total cracked the top-35. The Vega brothers have been quietly reliable and Mario Priego has been very solid as well. Eastern Kentucky may not have quite the upside that we thought they could have at the beginning of the season, but their floor is just as high as we suspected. 22. Harvard Crimson (0 / 22) There isn't a whole lot to discuss when it comes to the Harvard men who took 2nd place at the Northeast regional meet, earning an automatic national qualifying spot in the process. The Crimson's lineup was a bit more spread out than we would have preferred it to be on Friday. However, Shane Brosnan snagging a 10th place finish was a sneaky-good result. Harvard's runner-up effort was solid, but they finished only nine points ahead of Cornell, a team that they should have beaten more convincingly. Of course, it's also important to note that Harvard is still without Ferenc Kovacs, someone who hasn't raced since Pre-Nationals. That's both a good and bad thing. It's good in the sense that Harvard can be even stronger and more reliable if he returns for the national meet. However, losing a key piece on a team with already-shaky depth (at times) is certainly not ideal. 21. Princeton Tigers (0 / 21) The Princeton men escaped a scare at the Mid-Atlantic regional meet this past Friday. While the Villanova men easily cruised to the title, the Tigers nearly fell to Georgetown and, more surprisingly, to Navy. In the grand scheme of things, it wouldn't have mattered whether or not Princeton 2nd, 3rd or 4th -- they still would have qualified for the national meet with any of those finishes. Truthfully, there wasn't a legitimate flaw in the Tigers' lineup. They had a nice balance of lead scorers and depth. The only catch is that Navy and Georgetown both had more condensed scoring groups which is not something that I expected Princeton to fall behind on. 20. Furman Paladins (0 / 20) A 6th place finish at the Southeast regional meet isn't totally ideal, but it's hardly a reason to panic if you're the Furman men. Dylan Schubert and Carson Williams continue to be a very underrated 1-2 punch while the backend of their lineup was good enough, although not necessarily amazing. What we saw from the Furman men on Friday is largely what we expected to see. They'll need one of their backend talents to step up and have a big race if the Paladins want to crack the top-15 at the national meet. But for now, they've done just enough to keep this team nationally competitive -- and that's all that you can really ask for. 19. California Baptist Lancers (-2 / 17) The California Baptist men settled for 4th place at the West regional meet. The catch, however, is that they only beat Portland by three points. It truthfully felt like there were a small handful of CBU men who were capable of performing at a higher level this past Friday. But at the same time, the Lancers would have still qualified for the national meet even if the Pilots beat them. And when you look at their overall results, it's hard to really pinpoint a specific area that could have significantly altered CBU's final result. This team outperformed our expectations for them throughout the regular season. That's why a less exciting performance at a meet where the sole goal was to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships is hardly a major concern. 18. Utah State Aggies (+1 / 19) The Utah State men took home 4th place at the Mountain regional meet on Friday, a somewhat predictable result for the Aggies. At first glance, you may be fairly underwhelmed that Utah State only had one runner crack the top-28 (Camren Todd in 14th place). However, their final four scorers all packed together in the top-40, going 29-34-36-39. That backend group was stable enough to fend off other teams with similar lineup structures. The quartet of Spencer Nelson, Joshua McKee, LJ Floyd and Logan Garnica are going to be the men who truly dictate how the Aggies will fare on the national stage. They don't have a ton of margin for error, but they do have a complete top-five that seemingly doesn't have any true flaws. 17. Oregon Ducks (+1 / 18) A runner-up finish at the West regional meet was certainly a possibility for the Oregon men, but we didn't necessarily tab them to be favorites for an automatic national qualifying spot. The ongoing rise of Aiden Smith (5th) and Simeon Birnbaum (8th) has been extremely encouraging, especially since they're getting better as we move to the postseason. Elliott Cook (11th) has also continued to put together sneaky-good results in the postseason while Quincy Norman (16th) also ran well. There was gap after those four men, but for the most part, the Ducks look really solid. We'll admit, the youth and mile-centric identity of this team still leaves us with some concerns going into the national meet. Even so, few men's teams in the NCAA are faring better than the Oregon men are right now. 16. Washington Huskies (0 / 16) A narrow two-point win over the Oregon men at the West regional meet should give the Washington men some nice confidence heading into the NCAA XC Championships. Of course, the main goal was simply to qualify for the season finale -- wining the regional title was just an added bonus. We've been saying for a while now that if the Huskies all run well on the same day, then they'll be incredibly difficult to beat. That was plenty evident on Friday as Nathan Green, Evan Jenkins, Tyrone Gorze and Leo Daschbach went 7-9-14-15, respectively. With Jamar Distel (22nd) admirably closing out the scoring, this team performance is closer to the best version of Washington's lineup. They'll still need to translate this success to the national stage and keep gaps fairly limited, but the Huskies should be good heading into Saturday. 15. Syracuse Orange (0 / 15) The Syracuse men took home a fairly uneventful win at the Northeast regional meet, putting five men in the top-30. Assaf Harari (28th) didn't have his best day, but it largely didn't matter, especially with Benne Anderson (9th) stepping up while Sam Lawler (2nd) delivered on expectations. We didn't learn much about the Orange this past Friday, although it was nice to see younger guys like Anderson and Connor Ackley find success at the 10k distance despite their youth. 14. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (0 / 14) The Notre Dame men put forth a fairly honest effort at the Great Lakes regional meet this past Friday. There, they secured the regional title over Wisconsin. Of course, as long as they were in the top-four, they were almost certainly going to qualify for the national meet. I liked that the Fighting Irish didn't just cruise through their regional meet. After a brutal outing at the ACC XC Championships, this team likely needed a confidence booster, especially for guys like Carter Solomon and Daelen Ackley. And sure enough, both of those men had strong days. The very best version of this team is a borderline podium squad. Of course, that would require each of the Fighting Irish's scorers to run their best on the same day. 13. Villanova Wildcats (0 / 13) While Princeton, Georgetown and Navy were in an all-out brawl for the second automatic qualifying spot in the Mid-Atlantic region, the Villanova men were able to snag the team title. Liam Murphy and Marco Langon went 1-2, which is great, but not surprising by any means. However, what really left us encouraged was how much their next few scorers have improved this season. Bailey Habler (9th) has quietly become one of the better freshmen in the country while CJ Sullivan (13th) has become increasingly more reliable. With Devon Comber (25th) simply being good enough, Villanova's entire scoring contingent looks far more balanced and effective than we were expecting it to be at the beginning of the season. 12. Alabama Crimson Tide (-2 / 10) To no one's surprise, the Alabama men went 1-2-3 at the South regional meet this past Friday. That was enough to give them the overall win. However, after struggling a bit at the SEC XC Championships, we didn't see Hillary Cheruiyot race on Friday. And with Alabama's final two scorers dropping to 29th place and 45th place, it felt like Ole Miss snuck closer to the Crimson Tide than they should have. Now, in fairness to Alabama, they also rested a few key support scorers in addition to Cheruiyot. However, the Crimson Tide being a podium team on Saturday hinges on Cheruiyot being an All-American. And given how this season has played out for him, we're not feeling quite as encouraged as we were at the beginning of the season. 11. Virginia Cavaliers (+1 / 12) A win at the Southeast regional meet has to feel good for a Virginia squad that has been "good" this season (and maybe even "great"), but not necessarily amazing. Gary Martin and Will Anthony continue to be excellent while Nathan Mountain has remained as a highly reliable middle-lineup piece. However, a recent 17th place finish from Andrew Jones on Friday was a pleasantly surprising result. He's been a backend contributor for this team over the last few years, but this a clear jump up that he hadn't shown before. If the Cavaliers want to be a top-10 team on Saturday, then having Jones replicate that kind of performance will be crucial. That's obviously not guaranteed to happen, but for a team that was looking for an additional spark before the national meet, they may have found just that. 10. North Carolina Tar Heels (+1 / 11) We can only shrug our shoulders when seeing that the North Carolina men placed 2nd at the Southeast regional meet. The Tar Heels were clearly putting forth a conservative effort to preserve themselves for the national meet, although Will Coogan (23rd) did produce another sneaky-good result. The fifth spot in UNC's lineup still needs to close down on the gap to the team's third and fourth runners. That said, Patrick Anderson (31st) had a fairly solid race. That was arguably the best that the backend of the Tar Heels' lineup has looked this season. 9. Wisconsin Badgers (0 / 9) Sure, it would have been nice for the Wisconsin men to win the Great Lakes regional title, but there wasn't any need for them to do that. The Badgers snagged a runner-up finish on Friday to easily secure themselves a spot to the national meet. They did that by packing together all five of their scorers anywhere from 14th place to 20th place. Admittedly, this is the second race where Liam Newhart (35th) hasn't looked as strong as we had hoped he would. The national meet is the meet that holds greater importance, but his recent postseason efforts are sitting in the back of my mind as we approach the season finale. 8. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (0 / 8) A 3rd place finish for Northern Arizona at the Mountain Regional XC Championships leaves us shrugging our shoulders and saying, "Yeah, that's about right." While they certainly could have secured a runner-up finish, it largely didn't matter if they did or not. David Mullarkey (5th) was tasked with securing low-stick points, but the rest of his teammates -- Corey Gorgas, Santiago Prosser and Colin Sahlman -- packed together (going 11-12-13, respectively) in what felt like a somewhat conservative effort. Ford Washburn closed out the scoring in 30th place, but we'd imagine that a different runner will be the Lumberjacks' fifth man at the national meet. 7. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-2 / 5) The Wake Forest men have a slight "off" day at the Southeast regional meet where they placed 5th overall. However, more importantly, low-stick ace Rocky Hansen was absent from their lineup. In the grand scheme of things, as long as the Demon Deacons secured a spot to the national meet, there wasn't any need to go all-out on Friday. And frankly, there wasn't any need to field Rocky Hansen in this race after a combination of illness and heat exhaustion pushed him back to 32nd place at the ACC XC Championships. Even so, Friday wasn't exactly the most encouraging development for a Wake Forest team that, at full strength, is capable of being a podium squad. 6. New Mexico Lobos (+1 / 7) Despite Habtom Samuel and Lukas Kiprop both falling early-on at the Mountain regional meet, the New Mexico men still emerged with a 2nd place automatic national qualifying spot. For a team that has had a few question marks surrounding key runners this season, I thought the Lobos ran very well on Friday, especially with the brief setbacks that they had. Everyone isn't firing on all cylinders yet, but it does feel like New Mexico is beginning to (very slowly) peak at the right time. 5. Stanford Cardinal (+1 / 6) A 3rd place finish for Stanford at the West regional meet is a fine result that doesn't really leave us with much to analyze. The Cardinal were clearly doing just enough to ensure that they advanced to the national meet and they did exactly that. The Stanford men did not field Lex Young on Friday and Thomas Boyden faded in what was a clear "off" day from him. Thankfully, both Cole Sprout and Leo Young looked very strong while freshman Paul Bergeron (13th) has not-so-quietly continued to make excellent progress. So sure, the final result may not have been what they wanted, but as they prepare for the national meet, we found more positives than negatives. 4. Iowa State Cyclones (0 / 4) With the exception of Joash Ruto, I was a bit surprised that the Iowa State men didn't rest any of their other top scorers on Friday. With the amount of depth they have, the Cyclones could have sat one or two others and still secured the second automatic qualifying spot in the Midwest region with room to spare. Regardless, we'll be watching to see if Iowa State can replicate their postseason magic from last fall in Madison, Wisconsin this Saturday. 3. Arkansas Razorbacks (0 / 3) The Arkansas men rested both Reuben Reina and Ben Shearer this past Friday at the South Central regional meet. Of course, that didn't really matter in the end as the Razorbacks cruised to an easy win with just 33 points. Despite the rise of Tulane, the South Central region has remained an easy task for the Arkansas men. 2. Oklahoma State Cowboys (0 / 2) Business as usual for the Oklahoma State men. The Cowboys won the Midwest regional title with relative ease behind Denis Kipngetich and Laban Kipkemboi going 1-2 in the overall results. Brian Musau and Victor Shitsama also earned top-10 results in what was clearly a conservative effort. Oklahoma State did all of that without Fouad Messaoudi, Ryan Schoppe or Will Muirhead. Of course, they didn't really need those men. Far greater challenges lie ahead as they venture to Madison, Wisconsin. 1. BYU Cougars (0 / 1) Despite resting James Corrigan, Aidan Troutner and Lucas Bons, the BYU men still easily cruised to the Mountain regional title by putting four men in the top-10. And while that is a nice run, we didn't really learn anything new about this team on Friday. ADDED Colorado Buffaloes Butler Bulldogs Eastern Kentucky Colonels KICKED OFF Portland Pilots Texas Tech Red Raiders Wyoming Cowboys JUST MISSED (in no particular order) Portland Pilots Texas Tech Red Raiders Wyoming Cowboys Georgetown Hoyas Michigan State Spartans Montana State Bobcats Tulsa Golden Hurricane Tulane Green Wave Virginia Tech Hokies Gonzaga Bulldogs HONORABLE MENTIONS (in no particular order) Cornell Big Red Iona Gaels Purdue Boilermakers Michigan Wolverines Ole Miss Rebels Texas Longhorns Indiana Hoosiers NC State Wolfpack Boise State Broncos Colorado State Rams Notes - N/A

NOTE: These rankings are based on how a team fared throughout the entirety of a season , not just how they ran at a singular meet or (eventually) at the 2024 NCAA XC Championships. Click here to learn more about our ranking criteria (which was published in 2023). KEY (Unranked): Was not ranked in our last update. (#/#): First number indicates how much the team has moved in the rankings. The second number indicates where the team was ranked in our last update. ANOTHER NOTE: The Stride Report does not typically put much ranking weight on the regional meet results. Oftentimes, certain teams will not place much emphasis on these races and will simply run with the goal of advancing to the national meet. This is not to say that all regional results are negligible (as you'll see below). However, you may notice less movement within our top-25 lists than usual in this week's update. 25. Furman Paladins (-6 / 19) Alright, I know what you're all thinking... "What? How on Earth is Furman still ranked? They finished 8th at the Southeast regional meet! They should be dropping out entirely!" Sure, there is certainly an argument that the Paladins don't deserve to be a top-25 team in our rankings. But these rankings, as we've said all season long, are meant to be aggregates of how good a team is overall. These lists are meant to reflect how a team has fared throughout their entire fall campaign, not just how they performed at one or two select meets. Furman is a team that finished 6th at the Nuttycombe Invite and 14th at Pre-Nationals. Between those two meets, there were nine instances where the Paladins defeated a team currently ranked inside of our top-25 (some teams being repeats). Naturally, you can see the argument for why they took this final spot. Will Furman remain at our TSR #25 spot when the national meet is over? I can't say for sure, but if I had to guess, they likely will not. But for now, we're willing to say that they're collective body of work was among the top-25 resumes in the country. 24. Syracuse Orange (Unranked) Going into Friday, we figured that the Boston College women or the Syracuse women would emerge with the second automatic qualifying spot in the Northeast region. And after seeing the Golden Eagles topple the Orange at the ACC XC Championships, we gave the nod to the former team in our regional predictions. But the Syracuse women were ultimately the better group last Friday as the top-half of their lineup offered far greater scoring potency compared to the Boston College. In fact, the Orange put three women across the line before BC had anyone finish the race! Savannah Roark (9th) continues to be great, but it's the recent rise of Emma Eastman (17th) who has been quietly excellent for Syracuse. Tack on a strong effort from Rylie Lusk (19th) as well as a decent enough backend, and the Orange look like they have a fairly complete lineup. Sure, this team is far from perfect, but having Eastman running as well as she has, especially in the postseason, is very encouraging going into next weekend. 23. Tennessee Volunteers (-1 / 22) A 4th place finish at the South regional meet is a fine result for Tennessee, but it also didn't tell us anything new about the Volunteers. Ashley Jones (8th) delivered a low-stick result while the rest of Tennessee's scorers simply packed together to go 22-26-30-37. There wasn't much need for the Lady Vols to go all-out on Friday. As long as they finished in the top-four, they were almost certainly going to qualify for the national meet. However, Tennessee was only 11 points away from not advancing to the NCAA XC Championships. And while we do believe that women like Rachel Sutliff, Jillian Candelino and Caroline Lyerly will be better in Madison, Wisconsin, it's also hard to imagine this team replicating their postseason magic from last year come Saturday. 22. Florida State Seminoles (+3 / 25) The Florida State women have one of the more underrated duos in the nation in Agnes McTighe and Bieke Schipperen. Those two women finished 4th and 5th at the South regional meet this past Friday. But while the scoring potency of the 'Noles was great, it was actually Elizabeth Barlow (17th) and Brooke Mullins (20th) who were the most crucial and valuable scorers on this team. Their ability to offer highly valuable stability in the middle of this lineup was pivotal as Florida State made an effort to comfortably secure their spot to the NCAA XC Championships. This Florida State team has already smashed the admittedly low expectations that we had for them earlier this year. However, in order to further their success on the national stage, it's going to be Barlow and Mullins who need to have great days yet again. 21. Florida Gators (+2 / 23) A win by Hilda Olemomoi at the South regional meet was nice, but the scoring contingent of Tia Wilson, Allison Wilson and Bethan Morley (who went 12-15-16, respectively) is the biggest reason why this team earned a runner-up finish. The Gators' scoring nucleus is beginning to come together at just the right time. Florida has found scoring value beyond Olemomoi and despite certain women being relatively inexperienced, they have still been fairly steady. Admittedly, Florida will need to figure out how their fifth runner can close the gap on the Wilson-Wilson-Morley trio at the national meet. Coach Will Palmer has a variety of different runners who are capable of doing that, but we haven't seen that happen yet this season. 20. Minnesota Golden Gophers (+1 / 21) No surprises here. Minnesota cruised to a runner-up finish at the Midwest regional meet, finishing within reasonable reach of Oklahoma State. Not only that, but their lineup structure was, for the most part, roughly on par with our expectations. Ali Weimer has been excellent for the Golden Gophers this season, emerging as a true star. However, she'll need someone else on her team to emerge as a lead scoring talent if this group wants any shot of a top-15 finish at the national meet. 19. Penn State Nittany Lions (+1 / 20) For as good as Penn State is, the West Virginia women and Georgetown women were (and are) better. That was evident at the Mid-Atlantic Regional XC Championships where the Nittany Lions settled for a comfortable-ish 3rd place finish. Even so, we loved what we saw from the scoring reinforcements behind lead ace Florence Caron (4th). After her, Sophie Toti (12th) crossed the line with one of the better results of her cross country career. That kind of performance is closer to the expectations that we had for the Nittany Lion runner after she had a big breakout year on the track. With Hayley Kitching, Claire Daniels and Madaline Ullom going 22-23-24, respectively, Penn State has a complete scoring group. And although they weren't all that close to West Virginia or Georgetown, you could argue that Friday was the best that the Nittany Lions have looked all season. 18. Oklahoma State Cowgirls (0 / 18) Business as usual for the Cowgirls. The Oklahoma State women easily cruised to the Midwest regional title this past Friday. By putting four runners in the top-13 spots, the overall scoring prowess of this group was far too great for any other team like Minnesota to match. Earlier in the year, it seemed like Oklahoma State had an identity that was centered around three women. But lately, Colleen Stegmann has looked quietly great while complementing Josphine Mwaura who has also been sneaky-good as well. The backend portion of their lineup will need to close down on the gap in front of them, but all things considered, Friday felt like a day full of positive for the Cowgirls. 17. Gonzaga Bulldogs (-2 / 15) For the most part, the Gonzaga women have done everything that we have asked of them this season. That was especially true at the West regional meet this past Friday as the Bulldogs settled for a 4th place finish (as expected) behind Oregon, Stanford and Washington. There is certainly no shame in losing to the three juggernaut programs mentioned above. But at the same time, it feels like the Bulldogs haven't been quite as sharp as they were at the beginning of the season when they placed 8th at the Nuttycombe Invite. Maybe that's because Gonzaga hasn't defeated Portland by as much as we thought they would in their last two outings. Even so, there isn't anything specific that we can point to and say, "We are very concerned about this aspect of their lineup." And with one meet remaining, that's a good thing. 16. Wisconsin Badgers (+1 / 17) Friday's performance from the Wisconsin women didn't produce the flashiest result, but it didn't need to be and it wasn't expected to be (especially when you look at who they rested). At the Great Lakes regional meet, the Badgers put forth a classic effort where they didn't have much firepower, but they did showcase plenty of depth and limited gaps. By going 12-16-17-22-30, Wisconsin comfortably secured a runner-up finish. And the best part? They did that while resting two lead scoring talents in Leane Willemse and Lindsay Cunningham! The depth on this team is looking as strong as ever. However, a top-10 finish at national meet would require Wisconsin to have multiple top-70 finishers or have their collective scoring pack move up higher than expected. 15. North Carolina Tar Heels (-2 / 13) Seeing the North Carolina women place 3rd at the Southeast regional meet isn't really a surprise. The NC State women and the Virginia women are both great teams who, on their best days, were capable of giving the Tar Heels some trouble. However, seeing UNC drop to 3rd place and only beat Wake Forest by seven points was surprising. Now, to be clear, the Demon Deacons had a sneaky-good team this year. Plus, North Carolina would have pushed them into the national meet even if the Tar Heels faded to 4th place. Even so, UNC is undoubtedly the better team and we expected just a little bit more. Regardless, it's hard to put much stock into regional meet results and North Carolina still had all five of their scorers finish inside of the top-40. Friday was not a proper indicator of how good they are (or are not) this fall. 14. Virginia Cavaliers (0 / 14) Not much to say here. At the Southeast regional meet on Friday, Margot Appleton and Jenny Schilling produced excellent top-10 finishes while Gillian Bushee (21st) bridged the two halves of this lineup. Of course, the latter-half scorers, Sophie Atkinson (24th) and Tatum David (30th) weren't really that far behind. On paper, it's hard to dislike this UVA team. They have great low-sticks, a high-upside underclassman in Bushee, accomplished veterans and plenty of depth. Their floor theoretically seems pretty high, but what about their ceiling? 13. NC State Wolfpack (+3 / 16) Securing a win at the Southeast regional meet was a nice bounce-back performance for an NC State team that struggled greatly at the ACC XC Championships. Grace Hartman and Hannah Gapes continue to look incredible, but what really encouraged us was that the next few scorers behind them held their own quite well on Friday. Brooke Rauber (9th) had an excellent race, maybe one of the best of her career, after struggling a bit in her earlier two outings from this season. Her unexpected boost in firepower was complemented by freshmen Bethany Michalak (19th) and Ellie Shea (29th) quickly closing out the scoring. This is the version of NC State that we expected to see this season...well, with Leah Stephens also included. Rauber and Michalak were shockingly good (relative to expectations) and Shea continues to be one of the more underrated backend scorers in the NCAA this fall. This team is far from perfect, but they're seemingly putting the pieces of the puzzle together at the right time. I suppose we'll see if that's actually the case this Saturday. 12. Utah Utes (-2 / 10) A 4th place finish at the Mountain regional meet this past Friday doesn't really change our initial perception of Utah as a team. However, their lineup structure wasn't ideal and it feels like the Utes haven't been quite as sharp as they were at the beginning of the season. It was nice to see Utah put four women inside of the top-30 and it was also great to see Annastasia Peters run alongside Erin Vringer near the top of their lineup. Even so, a 22-spot gap between the team's fourth and fifth scorers isn't ideal, especially as the Utes prepare to enter the most important race of their season. Now, in fairness, Utah didn't have Katarzyna Nowakowska who would have absolutely cut-down on that gap. But when it comes to recent momentum, it feels like other teams are gaining more of that than Utah is. 11. New Mexico Lobos (0 / 11) The New Mexico women snagged 3rd place at the Mountain Regional XC Championships behind a pair of top-10 performances from Pamela Kosgei and Mercy Kirarei (the former of whom took home the title). Were there large gaps after those two women? Yes, there were, but it's not like their supporting cast was significantly worse than what Utah put together. I'm also under the impression that women like Klara Dess, Natalie Bitetti and Sophie McDonnell are all capable of better performances in larger fields. 10. Alabama Crimson Tide (-1 / 9) Alabama's victory at the South regional meet was one of the least surprising results from the entirety of Friday. The Crimson Tide looked great with Doris Lemngole, Brenda Tuwei and Pheline Cheruto all cracking the top-10 to give their team potent firepower (as expected). The gaps, however, began to form after those three women as Addison Dorenkamp (19th) and Franziska Drexler (32nd) closed out the scoring. Those are fine efforts and Dorenkamp in particular has been sneaky-good this season. However, this is a team that we expected to contend for a podium spot this fall. And without Joy Gill, Alabama has one less lead scorer and therefore a fairly large backend gap that they need to address. 9. Stanford Cardinal (+3 / 12) Up until Friday, the Stanford women had been racing without their focal star, Amy Bunnage. Of course, that all changed when the Aussie ace toed the line at the West regional meet to give her team a much-needed injection of scoring. Bunnage would go on to win the West regional title while fellow teammates Sophia Kennedy (6th), Riley Stewart (13th) and Zofia Dudek (16th) offered excellent scoring value. It has also been great to see Stewart slowly rally after an underwhelming performance at Pre-Nationals. Admittedly, the Cardinal still had to deal with a fairly significant drop-off to their fifth runner back in 35th place, but it largely didn't matter. Stanford was an automatic qualifier in the West region and their firepower now looks dramatically more potent. It would be an overreaction to say that Stanford is now a realistic podium contender (everything would need to go perfectly in order for that to happen). However, they are far more dangerous. They don't have much room for error, but their ceiling has risen quite a bit now that their star ace, Amy Bunnage, is back. 8. Providence Friars (0 / 8) It was an easy win for the Providence women at the Northeast regional meet as they put four women in the top-10 to take home the title. Watch out for Lauren Mooney who snagged 10th place. She is slowly becoming a great scorer who could offer better-than-expected value at the fourth spot in the Friars' lineup. Otherwise, this was a very predictable result that didn't really tell us anything new about the Providence women. 7. Georgetown Hoyas (0 / 7) The Georgetown women comfortably secured a runner-up effort at the Mid-Atlantic Regional XC Championships, earning an automatic qualifying spot to the national meet in the process. The Hoyas didn't field Melissa Riggins on Friday, mainly because they didn't need to. Chloe Scrimgeour and Lucy Jenks offered great scoring potency with three other Georgetown runners sneaking inside of the top-20. Georgetown's depth is very underrated and it's the main reason why they can rest an All-American threat like Melissa Riggins at their regional meet. Could it also be the reason why they upset a few programs and make it onto the podium come Saturday? 6. Washington Huskies (-2 / 4) The Washington women haven't necessarily been running poorly as of late, but it does feel like the rest of the NCAA's podium contenders are catching up to them. After thriving in the regular season and looking like a borderline podium lock, the Huskies seemingly lost some steam at the BIG 10 XC Championships after they were trounced by Oregon. Then, this past Friday, Washington settled for 3rd place at the West Regional XC Championships behind the Ducks and Stanford. We'll admit, we don't put a ton of stock into regional results, so maybe this is an unfair drop for Washington. Even so, the firepower on this team doesn't seem to be quite as potent as it was at the Nuttycombe Invite. And when it comes to podium contention, the Huskies will need plenty of firepower if they want to be part of that conversation. 5. West Virginia Mountaineers (+1 / 6) Gosh, the West Virginia women looked incredibly strong this past Friday at the Mid-Atlantic Regional XC Championships. Sure, we knew that Ceili McCabe and Joy Naukot were top-tier talents, but seeing Sarah Tait, Emily Bryce and Madison Trippett go 10-11-13, respectively, to close out the scoring was wildly impressive. The backend scoring portion of the Mountaineers' lineup isn't just better than expected, but they're also improving with each passing race. If you had told us at the beginning of the season that West Virginia was a podium threat with Tecla Lokrale not being a scorer, then I'm not sure I would have believed you. Admittedly, there still remains zero margin for error for West Virginia. If just one woman slips up, then it's game over for the Mountaineers' hopes to get on the podium. But frankly, who cares? This team has shattered expectations in 2024. 4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+1 / 5) It's not at all surprising that the Notre Dame women cruised to a Great Lakes regional title. However, the underclassmen in this lineup continue to get better and better. And believe it or not, they've been incredibly reliable despite their youth! The Fighting Irish put five women in the top-20 during Friday's race. But more importantly, it was Mary Bonner Dalton (9th), Isabel Allori (14th) and Gretchen Farley (20th) who stepped up to provide outstanding scoring value. The Fighting Irish look awesome right now. While you could point to their youth as a point of concern going into the national meet, you have to remember that low-stick ace Emily Covert didn't even run on Friday. This team isn't a lock for the podium, but they do feel like a very safe choice when making your predictions. 3. Oregon Ducks (0 / 3) The Oregon women won the West regional title just as we expected them to. With four women in the top-11 and the best fifth runner in the field by a good margin, the Ducks somewhat validated their BIG 10 title victory from the other week. We know how good Silan Ayyildiz, Maddy Elmore and Mia Barnett are, but the key to Oregon making it onto the podium on Saturday is going to be their fourth and fifth runners. Thankfully, Klaudia Kazimierska (12th) proved that her finish from the BIG 10 XC Championships wasn't a fluke. If Kazimierska is able to translate this recent postseason success to the national meet, then Oregon will almost certainly make it onto the podium, ceteris paribus. 2. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (0 / 2) 1. BYU Cougars (0 / 1) We would try to dive into the results of the Mountain regional meet, but there really isn't any need to. The BYU women didn't have Jenna Hutchins and the Northern Arizona women didn't have Alyson Churchill (nor were they going all-out). There is seemingly more upside within BYU's lineup, but there is arguably more depth and greater safety in Northern Arizona's lineup. We'll figure out which aspect is more impactful at the "Big Dance" this Saturday. ADDED Syracuse Orange KICKED OFF Boston College Golden Eagles JUST MISSED (in no particular order) Lipscomb Bison Boston College Golden Eagles Connecticut Huskies Portland Pilots Harvard Crimson Michigan State Spartans Toledo Rockets Wake Forest Demon Deacons Arkansas Razorbacks Texas Longhorns HONORABLE MENTIONS (in no particular order) Liberty Flames Princeton Tigers Villanova Wildcats Boise State Broncos Ole Miss Rebels Tulane Green Wave LSU Tigers Utah Valley Wolverines Northwestern Wildcats Colorado Buffaloes Notes - N/A

So...have you caught your breath yet? Don't worry, neither have we. The 2024 NCAA Regional XC Championships were just as entertaining as we could have realistically asked for. While many results matched our initial projections, a handful of unexpected performances left us at The Stride Report absolutely stunned! Below, I made an effort to analyze many of the key races that we saw on Friday. And no, we won't be covering every. single. race. simply because a good number of those regional battles and Kolas outcomes were largely unsurprising. Alright, let's dive in... Click Here For Fully Confirmed National Qualifying Teams Virginia Tech Earns Stunning 4th Place Finish in Southeast Region, Get Pushed Into National Meet By Wake Forest Anyone who has been a regular reader of our site for long enough probably knows that I am a Virginia Tech alum. As such, I always root for anything and everything that involves the Hokies. And yet, at the same time, I like to think that I am fairly level-headed and honest about the expectations of my favorite team (or any team, for that matter). That's why, when it came to Friday, I wasn't expecting the Virginia Tech men to make much noise. The Southeast region was stacked. And although the Hokies were having a decent fall campaign, there wasn't much on their resume which suggested that they would be able to legitimately contend for a spot to the NCAA XC Championships. Or so I thought. On Friday, Virginia Tech was brilliant, securing a monster 4th place team finish which allowed them to get "pushed" into the national meet by Wake Forest who was one spot behind them. And even if they hadn't defeated the Demon Deacons, then Furman would have also "pushed" them into the national meet. George Couttie took home the regional title in what was clearly the best race of his still-young career. He was a standout D2 rookie last year, but the progress that he has made in his fitness has been absolutely stunning. And with teammate Nicholas Kipchirchir (14th) offering a strong result as well, the upfront scoring presence of VT's cross country squad looked quietly great. However, the true heroes of this team are William Winter (28th) and Declan Rymer (32nd) who offered outstanding scoring stability in the middle of this lineup. With the team's fifth man dropping back to 53rd place (which isn't too bad of a result in retrospect), VT needed to be excellent at their third and fourth scoring positions if they wanted to get into the national meet. And sure enough, they did just that. This is the first year of Ben Thomas' tenure as Virginia Tech's Director. If this is what he's able to do in year one, then what can he do three years from now? What about four to five years from now? The future is very, very bright in Blacksburg, Virginia... Furman Women Struggle, Leave At-Large Qualifying Spot Open For Harvard Going into Friday, we felt pretty good about the Southeast region on both the men's and women's sides. For the most part, it didn't matter what order the top teams in the field finished. As long as they delivered on bare minimum expectations, Virginia, NC State, UNC and Furman were all going to advance to the national meet. Unfortunately for the latter, the Paladins flat-out struggled...a lot. Instead of taking 4th place, the Furman women fell all the way back to 8th place, taking themselves way out of contention for a national qualifying spot. That result was arguably just as stunning as the Virginia Tech men placing 4th. So...what happened? The Paladins' top-three women were quietly great. Carly Wilkes, Jenna Mulhern and Kaylie Armitage all cracked the top-20, going 14-15-18, respectively. The challenge, however, was that a massive gap formed after those three women crossed the line. The final two scorers for Furman dropped to 79th place and 90th place. This result has to sting...a lot. The Paladins, at their very best, had the chance to be a top-15 team in the country next weekend. Not all is lost for the future -- their top-three women could all return in 2025 -- but this certainly feels like a big missed opportunity to put forth a great postseason result. That said, I want to give a big nod of respect to Coach Rita Gary. After the race, she took to X (formerly Twitter) and publicly put the poor team performance on her. It was a refreshing display of ownership that I haven't seen too often. Sure, that's not going to change the end result, but I do appreciate the great show of character. Of course, in the Kolas era, one team's loss is another team's gain. That's why no one could have been more thrilled about Furman's struggles than Harvard. Even if the Paladins had a poor day and settled for 5th place, they still would have "pushed" almost any team ahead of them into the national meet. If an at-large bid was going to unexpectedly become available, then it didn't feel like it was going to originate from the Southeast region. But Furman struggling as much as they did opened the door for Harvard, a team that was on the very fringes of qualifying for the national meet. Their 4th place finish in the Northeast region was solid, but the rest of the projections that we had for the women's regional races all seemed fairly stable. If there were going to be any surprises, they were going to come from the men's side. Thankfully for Harvard, the only true surprise of the women's regional weekend was Furman. The Paladins struggling as much as they did was ultimately the reason why the Crimson women were the "Last Team In" to the national meet. Tulsa's Miracle Kolas Scenario Breaks In Their Favor Coming into Friday's regional championships, we felt like the Tulsa men had a shot at qualifying for the national meet. But the more that we researched the Kolas scenarios, the more we realized that a large handful of different outcomes needed to take place if the Golden Hurricanes were going to advance. Seeing this team place 3rd in the Midwest region was extremely unsurprising. After all, both Oklahoma State and Iowa State are podium favorites. The more interesting development wasn't necessarily Tulsa's team performance, but rather, the performances of other teams around the country. Things certainly didn't look good when Virginia Tech placed 4th at the Southeast Regional XC Championships. The Hokies being "pushed" into the national meet by Wake Forest essentially gave the Golden Hurricanes one less at-large spot to contend for -- and they couldn't afford that. But then Portland dropped to 5th place in the West region with very few Kolas points. And with no other teams to "push" them into the national meet, the number of projected at-large bids to come out of the West region went from five bids to four bids. Then, the Mountain region results came in. For the most part, all of the teams that we expected to advance to the national meet did exactly that. The only catch, however, is that Texas Tech did not finish ahead of Colorado and therefore did not get "pushed" into the national meet. And yes, you guessed it, that left one more at-large bid open for the taking. However, maybe the most important region that contributed towards Tulsa's national qualifying bid was the Great Lakes region sending only one at-large team to the NCAA XC Championships. Had Michigan finished ahead of Purdue as expected, then the Wolverines would have "pushed" Michigan State into the national meet, taking Tulsa out of contention for a national meet spot. Not only that, but Michigan State and Butler actually TIED with 104 points each! If the Spartans had defeated the Bulldogs, then both teams would have qualified for the national meet and Tulsa would have been left at home. In other words, three different scenarios in three different regions needed to happen in order for the Golden Hurricanes to qualify for the national meet. And in an unbelievable stroke of luck, Tulsa got everything they needed to extend their fall campaign by one week. Toledo & Michigan State Women Qualify For National Meet After Sitting On Fringes Throughout Friday Going into Friday, the two teams who we were watching the closest on the women's side were Toledo and Michigan State. In our eyes, those were the two teams that were in the most vulnerable positions from at at-large qualifying point of view. In the end, both teams advanced. However, there were a handful of scenarios which could have played out very poorly for both teams. Take the South region for instance. At that meet, Alabama and Florida took the top-two automatic qualifying spots. Meanwhile, Florida State, Tennessee and Lipscomb took 3rd place, 4th place and 5th place respectively. But...what would have happened if Alabama moved back to 4th place? Well, in that scenario, Tennessee gets "pushed" into the national meet, therefore giving both Toledo and Michigan State one less Kolas point. That allows Villanova to enter the national qualifying mix where they can "push" Princeton into the national meet. As a result, Toledo would have been the last team into the national meet, but both Michigan State and Harvard would have ended their seasons early. There are a few other scenarios where the Rockets and/or the Spartans could have fallen out of the national qualifying picture. The other scenario was that Furman could have placed 5th in the Southeast region, pushing Wake Forest into the national meet and therefore taking two at-large bids away from the Great Lakes region. Simply put, it felt like a coin toss as to whether or not Toledo and Michigan State would advance. Michigan State's Bizarre Kolas Scenario (Men) A few years ago, there was a highly unusual Kolas scenario where, if the Gonzaga men had performed slightly worse at the West regional meet, then they would have qualified for the NCAA XC Championships. And, believe it or not, we seemingly have another scenario just like that in 2024! In the Great Lakes region, the Michigan State men placed 4th, the Purdue men placed 5th and the Michigan men placed 6th. Let's assume that Michigan State's second scorer, who scored 19 points, was suddenly erased from the results. Now, let's move everyone else behind that now-deleted runner up one spot. If that had happened, then Michigan State would have scored 130 points and remained in 4th place. However, both Purdue AND Michigan would have scored 145 points each. And in that scenario, the Wolverines would have defeated the Boilermakers on a tie-breaker and placed 5th overall! If that had happened, then Michigan would have pushed Michigan State into the national meet. And in that scenario, neither Georgetown nor Tulsa would have qualified for the NCAA XC Championships. So yes, you read that right: If the Michigan State men had actually performed at a lesser level (but still finished in the same spot), then they could have qualified for the national meet. Pure insanity.

As The Stride Report puts together our Kolas projections, we wanted to provide some regional meet updates as they come in. The regions that are highlighted in blue hold links to the live results of each region meet. This article will be updated throughout the day. Please note that the dynamic nature of these results could lead to a variety of different Kolas national qualifying scenarios as they come in. The below analysis is meant to be a guide rather than a definitive statement of whether or not teams will advance to the national meet. FINAL PROJECTIONS COMING SOON Great Lakes Results Men's Teams Notre Dame Fighting Irish (AQ) Wisconsin Badgers (AQ) Butler Bulldogs Michigan State Spartans Purdue Boilermakers Michigan Wolverines Analysis: The Butler men are seemingly in a decent position to advance to this year's national meet. However, their potential to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships will come down to how many teams the West region sends to the national meet. The same goes for Michigan State, Purdue and Michigan, although those latter two teams are in a very uncomfortable qualifying position right now. The at-large teams in the Great Lakes region only want to see two automatic national qualifiers come out of the West region -- and that's it. Butler isn't safe yet, but they do have a good shot. However, with Michigan moving back one spot and Purdue upsetting them for 5th place, the door now slightly opens up for Iona to push Cornell into the national meet. Again, it will all come down to the West region and, to a slightly lesser extent, the Mountain region. Women's Teams Notre Dame Fighting Irish (AQ) Wisconsin Badgers (AQ) Toledo Rockets Michigan State Spartans Analysis: The women's results were right on par with our expectations. Toledo's chances of making the national meet appear to be fairly solid so far given how few "push" scenarios there seem to be. The same could be said about Michigan State, but to a lesser extent. That, of course, could very easily change. Mid-Atlantic Results Men's Teams Villanova Wildcats (AQ) Princeton Tigers (AQ) Georgetown Hoyas Navy Midshipmen Analysis: Wow, what a BRUTAL 3rd place finish for Georgetown! They actually tied with Princeton for the second automatic qualifying spot, but LOST the tie-breaker. Not only that, but Navy was just one point behind those two teams! The Hoyas still have a fairly realistic shot of qualifying for the national meet, but their destiny lies in the hands of the Mountain region and the West region. The final results in the Mid-Atlantic region match our initial projections. However, one or two points could have dramatically altered the national qualifying picture (especially if Navy finished in the top-two). Women's Teams West Virginia Mountaineers (AQ) Georgetown Hoyas (AQ) Penn State Nittany Lions Princeton Tigers Villanova Wildcats Analysis: Villanova falling back to 5th place has more or less taken them out of the national qualifying discussion. And while Princeton did put forth a good effort the results seen in other regions has led us to believe that they likely won't find an at-large bid in the Mid-Atlantic region this year. Northeast Results Men's Teams Syracuse Orange (AQ) Harvard Crimson (AQ) Cornell Big Red Iona Gaels Analysis: With Iona falling behind Cornell, their chances of qualifying for the national meet have dropped substantially. This, however, is good news for a Georgetown team that was on the fringe of advancing to this year's national meet assuming they place 3rd in their region. If the West region sends only two teams to the national meet, then that is a huge development for Iona and Cornell. In that scenario, the Gaels could possibly push the Big Red men into the national meet. Women's Teams Providence Friars (AQ) Syracuse Orange (AQ) Boston College Golden Eagles Harvard Crimson Connecticut Huskies Analysis: While we did project Boston College securing the second automatic qualifying spot over Syracuse, that probably won't impact our original projections too much. There are still a number of favorable scenarios where the Golden Eagles can get into the national meet via an at-large bid. Midwest Results Men's Teams Oklahoma State Cowgirls (AQ) Iowa State Cyclones (AQ) Tulsa Golden Hurricanes Analysis: No surprises here. The men's race went exactly how we thought it would. Tulsa isn't totally out of the national qualifying conversation yet, but the scenario they need to advance requires A LOT to break in their favor via the Mountain region and West region results. Women's Teams Oklahoma State Cowgirls (AQ) Minnesota Golden Gophers (AQ) Northwestern Wildcats Iowa State Cyclones Analysis: As expected, both Oklahoma State and Minnesota secured the top-two spots in their region. It is highly unlikely that we see an at-large bid come out of this region in 2024. South Results Men's Teams Alabama Crimson Tide (AQ) Ole Miss Rebels (AQ) Tennessee Volunteers Florida State Seminoles Analysis: No surprises here. Unless something completely and totally unexpected happens at other regional meets, it's unlikely that we'll see an at-large men's team come out of the South region this year. Women's Teams Alabama Crimson Tide (AQ) Florida Gators (AQ) Florida State Seminoles Tennessee Volunteers Lipscomb Bison Analysis: This is mostly what we expected to see out of the South region. All five of these teams are in a strong position to qualify for the national meet. South Central Results Men's Teams Arkansas Razorbacks (AQ) Tulane Green Wave (AQ) Texas Longhorns Analysis: Seeing Tulane snag the second automatic qualifying spot was certainly a possibility, but some may argue that they were not favored to beat Texas. That result is important. The Green Wave advancing bolsters the at-large possibilities in the Great Lakes region, but also hurts Georgetown's chances in the Mid-Atlantic region assuming that they place 3rd. Women's Teams Arkansas Razorbacks (AQ) Texas Longhorns (AQ) Tulane Green Wave Analysis: If Texas had not secured an automatic qualifying spot, then they likely would have taken up one of the at-large bids. That, however, did not happen, which is great news for Toledo and Michigan State in the Great Lakes region. Southeast Results Men's Teams Virginia Cavaliers (AQ) North Carolina Tar Heels (AQ) Eastern Kentucky Colonels Virginia Tech Hokies Wake Forest Demon Deacons Furman Paladins Analysis: An absolutely SHOCKING performance from Virginia Tech has essentially made them locks to qualify for the national meet. Wake Forest will almost certainly push them, making the Hokies one of the more stunning national meet qualifiers in recent memory. Furman should also have enough points to still earn an at-large bid. Women's Teams NC State Wolfpack (AQ) Virginia Cavaliers (AQ) North Carolina Tar Heels Wake Forest Demon Deacons Liberty Flames Clemson Tigers Louisville Cardinals Furman Paladins Analysis: It was a brutal day for the Furman women who simply struggled. If they had placed 5th, then they still could have pushed another team into the national meet. However, by dropping all the way back to 8th place, it appears that UNC will be the only at-large bid to come out of the Southeast region. That is massive news for the likes of Toledo, Michigan State and Harvard as an at-large spot has unexpectedly opened up for them. Mountain Results Men's Teams BYU Cougars (AQ) New Mexico Lobos (AQ) Northern Arizona Lumberjacks Utah State Aggies Colorado Buffaloes Wyoming Cowboys Montana State Bobcats Texas Tech Red Raiders Colorado State Rams Analysis: Texas Tech falling back as much as they did likely means that they will not qualify for the national meet. That, in theory, leaves one more at-large spot open. And with the West region projected to only send four teams instead of five (like we originally predicted), other fringe contenders like Georgetown, Butler and Tulsa could have snuck their way into the NCAA XC Championships... Women's Teams BYU Cougars (AQ) Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (AQ) New Mexico Lobos Utah Utes Utah Valley Wolverines Analysis: The women's Mountain regional results were mostly chalk. Yes, we originally had Utah finishing ahead of New Mexico, but swapping those two teams shouldn't make much of a difference. West Results Men's Teams Washington Huskies (AQ) Oregon Ducks (AQ) Stanford Cardinal California Baptist Lancers Portland Pilots Gonzaga Bulldogs Analysis: Oregon securing one of the two automatic qualifying spots in their region is huge as they don't need to worry about the Kolas math of an at-large bid. With Stanford and CBU finishing in 3rd and 4th place, we can pretty much confirm that those two teams will also be moving on. However, the Portland men finished in 5th place. It is unlikely that they will advance, although we still have the analyze/calculate the results of the Mountain region before that is truly projected. Women's Teams Oregon Ducks (AQ) Stanford Cardinal (AQ) Washington Huskies Gonzaga Bulldogs Portland Pilots Analysis: The return of Amy Bunnage is huge for a Stanford team that has been good, but not necessarily amazing, this season. Having her take home the regional title was enough to give the Cardinal an automatic qualifying spot. However, it largely didn't matter whether Stanford finished in 2nd place, 3rd place or 4th place. The Cardinal were almost certainly going to advance to the national meet as long as they finished in the top-four. And given how the rest of the results played out, there isn't much that will change in the national qualifying calculations.

Thanks to the incredible work from our friends at KolasCalc.com and Bo Waggoner at xcquals.com we were able to utilize their websites to construct our national meet qualifying projections for the Division One level. And yes, we made sure to run projections on both sites (and luckily, we got the same answers). Be sure to check out their sites and play around with your own regional meet orders! Also, if you want to learn more about the Kolas national qualifying process, be sure to also check out our UNDERSTANDING KOLAS page! With that being said, here are our official (and final) qualifying projections for the 2024 national meet. Below, we listed all of then automatic qualifiers (the top-two teams in each region) and then broke down how certain teams are expected to receive their at-large bids (the following 13 teams). Let's begin! Click Here For Full Kolas Qualifying Screen 2024 Men's Regional Results NOTE: TEAMS IN BOLD INDICATE AUTO-LOCKS GREAT LAKES 1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2. Wisconsin Badgers 3. Butler Bulldogs 4. Michigan State Spartans 5. Purdue Boilermakers 6. Michigan Wolverines MID-ATLANTIC 1. Villanova Wildcats 2. Princeton Tigers 3. Georgetown Hoyas 4. Navy Midshipmen MIDWEST 1. Oklahoma State Cowgirls 2. Iowa State Cyclones 3. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes 4. Illinois State Redbirds MOUNTAIN 1. BYU Cougars 2. New Mexico Lobos 3. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 4. Utah State Aggies 5. Colorado Buffaloes 6. Wyoming Cowboys 7. Montana State Bobcats 8. Texas Tech Red Raiders 9. Colorado State Rams NORTHEAST 1. Syracuse Orange 2. Harvard Crimson 3. Cornell Big Red 4. Iona Gaels SOUTH 1. Alabama Crimson Tide 2. Ole Miss Rebels 3. Tennessee Volunteers 4. Florida State Seminoles SOUTH CENTRAL 1. Arkansas Razorbacks 2. Tulane Green Wave 3. Texas Longhorns SOUTHEAST 1. Virginia Cavaliers 2. North Carolina Tar Heels 3. Eastern Kentucky Colonels 4. Virginia Tech Hokies 5. Wake Forest Demon Deacons 6. Furman Paladins WEST 1. Washington Huskies 2. Oregon Ducks 3. Stanford Cardinal 4. California Baptist Lancers 5. Portland Pilots 6. Gonzaga Bulldogs TSR's Projected Men's At-Large Qualifiers At-Large Bid #1: Stanford Cardinal We kick-off our national qualifying at-large selection process by choosing the first eligible team with the most Kolas points. In this case, that is the Stanford men who have 12 Kolas points. The Cardinal give out one Kolas point to Wake Forest. At-Large Bid #2: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks Wake Forest has 12 Kolas points, the most among any other team in the selection process at this point. However, they are not yet eligibile to be selected for an at-large spot. That is because the Demon Deacons must be in the top-two spots of their region among teams who have not yet been selected for the national meet. Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Northern Arizona men and the Eastern Kentucky men have the most Kolas points (six). We must now move to a "head-to-head" tie-breaker. This will allow us to find out which team will be given the second at-large spot to the NCAA XC Championships. In this case, the Northern Arizona men and the Eastern Kentucky men have competed against each other once this season. That lone matchup came at Pre-Nationals. There, the Lumberjacks defeated the Colonels. That, in turn, means that NAU wins the tie-breaker. Northern Arizona gives out zero Kolas points to teams who are still waiting to be selected. At-Large Bid #3: Eastern Kentucky Colonels Wake Forest is still not eligible to be selected. They hold 12 Kolas points. Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Eastern Kentucky men and the Colorado men have the most Kolas points (six). However, the Buffaloes finished in 5th place behind Utah State at the Mountain regional meet. If the Utah State men were unable to qualify for the national meet on their own, then Colorado would "push" them into the national meet. However, the NCAA wants to avoid any "push" scenarios when possible. And since we know that Colorado will eventually qualify for the national meet later in the selection process, we're willing to bypass them for now. This means that we can now select Eastern Kentucky to qualify for the national meet. The Colonels give one Kolas point (each) to California Baptist, Colorado, Furman, Michigan, Utah State, Wake Forest and Wyoming. At-Large Bid #4: Virginia Tech Hokies (push) At-Large Bid #5: Wake Forest Demon Deacons The Wake Forest men are now eligible to be selected for an at-large bid. They also have the most Kolas points (13) among any team who is eligible to be selected. Naturally, they should be chosen to advance to the national meet. However, Virginia Tech finished in 4th place at the Southeast regional meet whereas Wake Forest finished in 5th place behind the Hokies. The Virginia Tech men have zero Kolas points. They are not projected to advance to the national meet without a "push" scenario. Thankfully for the Hokies, the Wake Forest men do have enough points to qualify for the national meet and can consequentially "push" Virginia Tech into the national meet. Any teams who are "pushed" into the national meet do not yield Kolas points to other teams who are still waiting to be selected. Wake Forest, however, was the not the team who got pushed in (instead, they were the ones doing the pushing). Even so, the Demon Deacons do not give any Kolas points to teams who are still waiting to be selected. At-Large Bid #6: California Baptist Lancers The Colorado men have the most Kolas points (seven) among all teams who are eligible to be selected to the national meet. However, in order to avoid a "push" scenario (as explained above), we will delay selecting them for now. The Michigan men do have the next-most Kolas points of teams who are still waiting to be selected. However, they are not yet eligible to be selected. Among all of the teams (not named Colorado) who are eligibile to be selected, the California Baptist men have the most Kolas points (four). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Lancers are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. CBU gives out zero Kolas points to teams who are still waiting to be selected. At-Large Bid #7: Utah State Aggies We are still delaying our selection of Colorado. Michigan, despite having six Kolas points, is still not eligible to be selected. Utah State, Butler and Furman are all eligible to be selected for a spot to the NCAA XC Championships. They each have three Kolas points, the most among all eligible teams who are waiting to be selected. Since each of these three teams are tied with each other in Kolas points, we must defer to a tie-breaking scenario. That, of course, would be the "head-to-head" comparison. Each of these three teams faced each other earlier this season at Pre-Nationals. There, Utah State defeated both Furman and Butler. With no other matchups to review, we find that the Aggies have an undefeated record against those two teams and are now selected to qualify for the national meet. Utah State gives out zero Kolas points to teams who are still waiting to be selected. At-Large Bid #8: Colorado Buffaloes Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Colorado men have the most Kolas points (seven). And now that Utah State has advanced to the national meet, the NCAA can select Colorado to earn an at-large bid now that the Buffaloes do not "push" in the Aggies. Colorado gives one Kolas point (each) to Furman, Michigan, Texas Tech and Wyoming. At-Large Bid #9: Wyoming Cowboys The Michigan men have the most Kolas points (seven) of any team still waiting to be selected. However, they are still not eligible to be selected. Both the Wyoming men and the Furman men have the most Kolas points (four) among teams who are eligible to be selected. Therefore, we must move to a "head-to-head" tie-breaker. In this case, the Wyoming men and the Furman men have competed against each other once this season. That lone matchup came at Pre-Nationals. There, the Cowboys defeated the Paladins. For that reason, Wyoming is the next team selected for the national meet. Wyoming gives out one Kolas point to Colorado State. At-Large Bid #10: Furman Paladins The Michigan men have the most Kolas points (seven) of any team still waiting to be selected. However, they are still not eligible to be selected. Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Furman men have the most Kolas points (four). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Paladins are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. Furman gives one Kolas point (each) to Air Force, Florida State, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Iona, Michigan, Montana State, Portland and Tulsa. At-Large Bid #11: Butler Bulldogs The Michigan men have the most Kolas points (eight) of any team still waiting to be selected. However, they are still not eligible to be selected. Butler, Georgetown, Tulsa and Iona are all eligible to be selected for a spot to the NCAA XC Championships. They each have three Kolas points, the most among all eligible teams who are waiting to be selected. Since those three teams are all tied with each other in Kolas points, we must defer to a tie-breaking scenario. That, of course, would be the "head-to-head" comparison. Butler, Tulsa and Iona all faced each other at Pre-Nationals. There, Butler defeated both Tulsa and Iona. We must also recognize that Butler and Georgetown faced off at the BIG East XC Championships. There, the Bulldogs got the better of the Hoyas. Regardless of the matchup results between the other three teams, Butler is undefeated this season against the other teams who are in contention to qualify for the national meet. As such, they win the tie-breaker and are the next team selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. Butler gives one Kolas point (each) to Illinois and Indiana. At-Large Bid #12: Georgetown Hoyas The Michigan men have the most Kolas points (eight) of any team still waiting to be selected. However, they are still not eligible to be selected. Georgetown, Tulsa and Iona are all eligible to be selected for a spot to the NCAA XC Championships. They each have three Kolas points, the most among all eligible teams who are waiting to be selected. Indiana also has three Kolas points, but they are not yet eligible to be selected. Since those three teams are all tied with each other in Kolas points, we must defer to a tie-breaking scenario. That, of course, would be the "head-to-head" comparison. Georgetown, Tulsa and Iona all faced each other at the Nuttycombe Invite. There, Georgetown defeated both of those teams. Regardless of the matchup result between Tulsa and Iona, it is the Hoyas who are undefeated this season against those two teams. As such, they win the tie-breaker and are the next team selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. Georgetown gives one Kolas point to Michigan. At-Large Bid #13: Tulsa Golden Hurricanes The Michigan men have the most Kolas points (nine) of any team still waiting to be selected. However, they are still not eligible to be selected. Meanwhile, Indiana has three Kolas points, but are also not eligible to be selected. Given that this is the final national qualifying spot available, neither Michigan nor Indiana will advance to the 2024 NCAA XC Championships. Tulsa and Iona both have three Kolas points. However, Iona finished in 4th place at the Northeast regional meet. They were bested by Cornell who placed 3rd. In order for Iona to qualify for the national meet, they would have had to "push" the Cornell men into the national meet. Of course, there is only one national meet qualifying spot left. That means that neither Iona nor Cornell will advance to the national meet this year. Among all of the other teams who are eligibile to be selected, this leaves the Tulsa men as the last team standing. They have three Kolas points. With no other technicalities to worry about, the Golden Hurricanes are selected as the last team to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. If there had been any further Kolas calculations, Tulsa would have given one Kolas point (each) to Air Force, Florida State, Gonzaga, Iona, Michigan, Michigan State, Montana State and Portland. First Team Out: Michigan State Spartans If we were to continue our Kolas math beyond the 13 at-large bids, which team would emerge as the "First Team Out" of the national meet? Michigan, despite having 10 Kolas points, is not eligible to be selected for this non-existent 14th spot. Neither is Indiana, a team with three Kolas points. Yes, the Iona men do have three Kolas points, but as we just explained above, they would have to push in Cornell in order for them to secure this spot -- and that can't happen when there is one spot remaining. That, in turn, leaves the Michigan State men with the most Kolas points (three) among teams who are eligible to be selected. As a result, the Spartans are projected to be our "First Team Out" of this year's national meet. 2024 Women's Regional Results NOTE: TEAMS IN BOLD INDICATE AUTO-LOCKS GREAT LAKES 1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2. Wisconsin Badgers 3. Toledo Rockets 4. Michigan State Spartans MID-ATLANTIC 1. West Virginia Mountaineers 2. Georgetown Hoyas 3. Penn State Nittany Lions 4. Princeton Tigers 5. Villanova Wildcats MIDWEST 1. Oklahoma State Cowgirls 2. Minnesota Golden Gophers 3. Northwestern Wildcats 4. Iowa State Cyclones MOUNTAIN 1. BYU Cougars 2. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 3. New Mexico Lobos 4. Utah Utes 5. Utah Valley Wolverines NORTHEAST 1. Providence Friars 2. Syracuse Orange 3. Boston College Golden Eagles 4. Harvard Crimson 5. Connecticut Huskies SOUTH 1. Alabama Crimson Tide 2. Florida Gators 3. Florida State Seminoles 4. Tennessee Volunteers 5. Lipscomb Bison SOUTH CENTRAL 1. Arkansas Razorbacks 2. Texas Longhorns 3. Tulane Green Wave 4. LSU Tigers SOUTHEAST 1. NC State Wolfpack 2. Virginia Cavaliers 3. North Carolina Tar Heels 4. Wake Forest Demon Deacons 5. Liberty Flames 6. Clemson Tigers 7. Louisville Cardinals 8. Furman Paladins WEST 1. Oregon Ducks 2. Stanford Cardinal 3. Washington Huskies 4. Gonzaga Bulldogs 5. Portland Pilots 6. Boise State Broncos TSR's Projected Women's At-Large Qualifiers At-Large Bid #1: Washington Huskies We kick-off our national qualifying at-large selection process by choosing the first eligible team with the most Kolas points. In this case, that is the Washington women who have 20 Kolas points. The Huskies give out zero Kolas points to teams who are still waiting to be selected. At-Large Bid #2: New Mexico Lobos Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the New Mexico women have the most Kolas points (10). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Lobos are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. New Mexico gives out zero Kolas points to teams who are still waiting to be selected. At-Large Bid #3: Utah Utes Both the Utah women and the Florida State women are tied with eight Kolas points each. This means that we must move to a "head-to-head" tie-breaker. This will allow us to find out which team will be given the third at-large spot to the NCAA XC Championships. The Utah women and Florida State women raced against each other once this season. That matchup came at the Nuttycombe Inviter where the Utes defeated the Seminoles. For that reasoning, Utah is given the third spot in our at-large selection process. The Utes gives out zero Kolas points to teams who are still waiting to be selected. At-Large Bid #4: Florida State Seminoles Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Florida State women have the most Kolas points (eight). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Seminoles are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. Florida State gives out one Kolas point (each) to Furman, Gonzaga, Lipscomb, Penn State and Villanova. They also give out two Kolas points (each) to Boston College and North Carolina. At-Large Bid #5: North Carolina Tar Heels Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the North Carolina women have the most Kolas points (nine). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Tar Heels are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. North Carolina gives out one Kolas point to Furman. At-Large Bid #6: Penn State Nittany Lions The Furman women have the most Kolas points (eight) of any team still waiting to be selected. However, they are not yet eligible to be selected. That is because the Paladins must be in the top-two spots of their region among teams who have not yet been selected for the national meet. Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Penn State women have the most Kolas points (five). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Nittany Lions are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. Penn State gives one Kolas point (each) to Furman and Gonzaga. At-Large Bid #7: Gonzaga Bulldogs The Furman women have the most Kolas points (nine) of any team still waiting to be selected. However, they are still not eligible to be selected. Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Gonzaga women have the most Kolas points (five). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Bulldogs are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. Gonzaga gives one Kolas point to Furman. At-Large Bid #8: Boston College Golden Eagles The Furman women have the most Kolas points (10) of any team still waiting to be selected. However, they are still not eligible to be selected. Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Boston College women have the most Kolas points (four). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Golden Eagles are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. Boston College gives one Kolas point (each) to Lipscomb, Michigan State, Toledo and Villanova. They also give two Kolas points to Furman. At-Large Bid #9: Toledo Rockets The Furman women have the most Kolas points (12) of any team still waiting to be selected. However, they are still not eligible to be selected. The Lipscomb women have four Kolas points. They are eligibile to be selected for an at-large bid as there is no other eligible team who has four or more Kolas points. However, the Bison finished in 5th place behind Tennessee at the South regional meet. If the Tennessee women were unable to qualify for the national meet on their own, then Lipscomb would "push" them into the national meet. However, the NCAA wants to avoid any "push" scenarios when possible. And since we know that Lipscomb will eventually qualify for the national meet later in the selection process, we're willing to bypass them for now. This leaves Toledo and Tennessee with three Kolas points (each), the most among all eligible teams who are still waiting to be selected (other than Lipscomb). We must now move to a "head-to-head" tie-breaking scenario given that Toledo and Tennessee have the same number of Kolas points. The Rockets and Volunteers have competed against each other once this season. That lone matchup came at Pre-Nationals. There, Toledo defeated Tennessee. For that reason, Toledo wins the tie-breaker and earns the at-large bid. The Rockets give one Kolas point (each) to Furman, Lipscomb, Louisville and Michigan State. At-Large Bid #10: Michigan State Spartans The Furman women have the most Kolas points (13) of any team still waiting to be selected. However, they are still not eligible to be selected. Meanwhile, Lipscomb has five Kolas points, the most among all teams who are eligible to be selected. But as we mentioned above, we want to avoid a "push" scenario and we know that Lipscomb will qualify on their own later in the selection process. This leaves us with the Michigan State women who have the most Kolas points (eight) among all teams who are eligible to be selected...other than Lipscomb. With no other technicalities to worry about, the Spartans are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. Michigan State gives out one Kolas point (each) to Boise State, Furman, Liberty, Lipscomb, Texas Tech and Wyoming. At-Large Bid #11: Tennessee Volunteers The Furman women have the most Kolas points (14) of any team still waiting to be selected. However, they are still not eligible to be selected. Meanwhile, Lipscomb has six Kolas points, the most among all teams who are eligible to be selected. But as we mentioned earlier, we want to avoid a "push" scenario and we know that Lipscomb will qualify on their own later in the selection process. This leaves us with the Tennessee women who have the most Kolas points (three) among all teams who are eligible to be selected...other than Lipscomb. With no other technicalities to worry about, the Volunteers are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. Tennessee gives out one Kolas point (each) to Furman, Harvard, Liberty, Lipscomb and Utah Valley. At-Large Bid #12: Lipscomb Bison The Furman women have the most Kolas points (15) of any team still waiting to be selected. However, they are still not eligible to be selected. Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Lipscomb women have the most Kolas points (seven). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Bison are finally selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships now that Tennessee is no longer in front of them. Lipscomb gives out one Kolas point to Villanova and two Kolas points to Furman. At-Large Bid #13: Harvard Crimson The Furman women have the most Kolas points (16) of any team still waiting to be selected. However, they are still not eligible to be selected. Since this is the last and final at-large bid that the NCAA will give out, we can say that the Paladin women will not qualify for this year's national meet. The Liberty women and Villanova women both have three Kolas points, the most among all eligible teams who are waiting to be selected. However, both of those teams finished in 5th place in their respective regions. Princeton finished one spot ahead of Villanova and Wake Forest finished one spot ahead of Liberty. In order for Liberty or Villanova to qualify for the national meet, they would have had to "push" in the team in front of them into the national meet. Of course, there is only one national meet qualifying spot left. That means that neither Liberty or Villanova will advance to the national meet this year. Among all of the other teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Harvard women have the most Kolas points (two). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Crimson are selected as the last team to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. If there had been any further Kolas calculations, Harvard would have given one Kolas point (each) to Furman, Liberty and Princeton. First Team Out: Princeton Tigers If we were to continue our Kolas math beyond the 13 at-large bids, which team would emerge as the "First Team Out" of the national meet? Since there is only one theoretical (and non-existent) spot remaining, any team that finished behind another team in their region who also has not been selected will not be considered for this spot. Despite Furman, Louisville and Villanova having more Kolas points than everyone else, they will not be considered for this spot. This leaves us with LSU, Princeton, Northwestern and Utah Valley as the teams who could be our "First Team Out." They each hold one Kolas point. This means that we need to utilize a tie-breaking scenario where we compare "head-to-head" matchups. Oddly enough, none of these teams have faced each other at any point this season. This means that we must move on to the second tie-breaking scenario -- record against common opponents. While our Kolas calculator does not provide the answer for who the "First Team Out" would be, our friends at KolasCalc.com were able to do some additional calculations. And in this instance, it seems that Princeton wins the "common opponents" tie-breaker to become our "First Team Out" of the national meet.

Predictions by Donny Speas, edits via Garrett Zatlin The next set of predictions that we have for the high school postseason is the NXR Midwest meet! This year, the Midwest region has been full of exciting teams who look like they can make a serious push for a top-10 (or potentially top-five) finish at NXN in a couple of weeks. The field comprises of teams and individuals from the states of Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri and Michigan. Out of the three regions that we've covered so far, this feels like the first one that is truly well-rounded and has both individual and team podium contenders (once we reach the national stage) for both genders. Due to our limited amount of time for writing and editing, we won't be offering any written analysis for these NXR prediction articles. We are, however, expanding our predictions to feature the top-20 individuals and the top-10 teams. Girl's Individual Race (5k) Victoria Garces (Midland Dow) Mia Sirois (Barrington) Kate Foltz (Tuscola) Libby Dowty (Indian Creek) Jessica Jazwinski (Hart) Helen Sachs (Holland West Ottawa) Sundara Weber (Sandwich) Mallory Weller (Fort Wayne Concordia Lutheran) Natasza Dudek (Ann Arbor Pioneer) Daniela Scheffler (Uniontown-Lake) Isabella Keller (St. Anthony Effingham) Julia Score (Bishop Chatard) Ava Jarrell (Pendleton Heights) Annika Swan (St. Ignatius College- Chicago) Brooke Chapman (Olentangy Orange) Marisa Heil (Lancaster) Ava Schafer (St. Johns) Veronica Znajda (Mt. Prospect) Emma Hoffman (Otsego) Elena Aldrink (Olentangy Liberty) Boy's Individual Race (5k) TJ Hansen (Freeland) Sam Quagliaroli (Fishers) Landon Kimmel (Tippecanoe) Noah Bontrager (Westview) Ben Crane (Winnetka) Alex Bruns (St. Xaiver) Henry Acorn (Rockhurst) Dylan Maloney (Plainfield South) Seth Conner (Jenison) Jack Bidwell (Marshall) Kamari Ronfeldt (Ann Arbor Pioneer) Aidan Pengelly (Canton) Jack Hearld (Danville Community) Kyle O'Rourke (Milford) Liam Bauschke (Mishawaka) Grant Schroder (Downers Grove North) Eli Ilg (Massilion Jackson) Jackson Nolan (Evansville F.J. Reitz) Philip Cupial (Downers Grove North) Joe Bregenzer (Barrington) Girl's Team Race Romeo Bulldogs (MI) Downers Grove North Trojans (IL) Barrington Broncos (IL) Saline Hornets (MI) Lancaster Golden Gales (OH) York Dukes (IL) Carmel Greyhounds (IN) Fort Wayne Concordia Lutheran (IN) Holland West Ottawa Panthers (MI) Hilliard Davidson Wildcats (OH) Boy's Team Race Downers Grove North Trojans (IL) Plainfield North Tigers (IL) Bloomington North Cougars (IN) Allendale Falcons (MI) Noblesville Millers (IN) Rockhurst Hawklets (MO) Mason Comets (OH) Columbus North Bulldogs (IN) Northville Mustangs (MI) Brownsburg Bulldogs (IN)

Thanks to the incredible work from our friends at KolasCalc.com and Bo Waggoner at xcquals.com we were able to utilize their websites to construct our national meet qualifying projections for the Division One level. And yes, we made sure to run projections on both sites (and luckily, we got the same answers). Be sure to check out their sites and play around with your own regional meet orders! Also, if you want to learn more about the Kolas national qualifying process, be sure to also check out our UNDERSTANDING KOLAS page! With that being said, here are our official qualifying projections for the 2024 national meet. Below, we listed all of our automatic qualifiers (the projected top-two teams in each region) and then broke down how certain teams are expected to receive their at-large bids (the following 13 teams). Let's begin! Click Here For Full Kolas Qualifying Screen TSR's Projected Men's Regional Results NOTE: TEAMS IN BOLD INDICATE AUTO-LOCKS GREAT LAKES 1. Wisconsin Badgers 2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 3. Butler Bulldogs 4. Michigan State Spartans 5. Michigan Wolverines 6. Indiana Hoosiers MID-ATLANTIC 1. Villanova Wildcats 2. Princeton Tigers 3. Georgetown Hoyas 4. Navy Midshipmen MIDWEST 1. Oklahoma State Cowgirls 2. Iowa State Cyclones 3. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes 4. Missouri Tigers MOUNTAIN 1. BYU Cougars 2. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 3. New Mexico Lobos 4. Wyoming Cowboys 5. Utah State Aggies 6. Texas Tech Red Raiders 7. Colorado Buffaloes 8. Montana State Bobcats 9. Colorado State Rams NORTHEAST 1. Syracuse Orange 2. Harvard Crimson 3. Iona Gaels 4. Cornell Big Red 5. Providence Friars SOUTH 1. Alabama Crimson Tide 2. Ole Miss Rebels 3. Tennessee Volunteers 4. Florida State Seminoles SOUTH CENTRAL 1. Arkansas Razorbacks 2. Texas Longhorns 3. Tulane Green Wave 4. Texas A&M Aggies SOUTHEAST 1. Wake Forest Demon Deacons 2. North Carolina Tar Heels 3. Virginia Cavaliers 4. Eastern Kentucky Colonels 5. Furman Paladins 6. NC State Wolfpack 7. Virginia Tech Hokies WEST 1. Stanford Cardinal 2. Portland Pilots 3. Washington Huskies 4. Oregon Ducks 5. California Baptist Lancers 6. Gonzaga Bulldogs 7. Cal Poly Mustangs 8. Boise State Broncos TSR's Projected Men's At-Large Qualifiers At-Large Bid #1: New Mexico Lobos We kick-off our national qualifying at-large selection process by choosing the first eligible team with the most Kolas points. In this case, that is the New Mexico men who have eight Kolas points. The Lobos give out zero Kolas points to teams who are still waiting to be selected. At-Large Bid #2: Washington Huskies Both the Washington men and the Eastern Kentucky men are tied with six Kolas points each. Colorado and Michigan also have six Kolas points (each), but they are not yet eligibile to be selected for an at-large spot. That is because those squads must be in the top-two spots of their region among teams who have not yet been selected for the national meet. When it comes to Washington and Eastern Kentucky, we must move to a "head-to-head" tie-breaker. This will allow us to find out which team will be given the second at-large spot to the NCAA XC Championships. In this case, the Washington men and the Eastern Kentucky men have competed against each other twice, once at the Nuttycombe Invite and once at Pre-Nationals. The Washington men beat Eastern Kentucky at the former meet while the Eastern Kentucky men beat Washington at the latter meet. Typically, if both teams have the same "head-to-head" records against each other, than the tie-breaker would be won by whichever team mostly recently defeated the other. In this case, that is Eastern Kentucky. The catch, however, is that the Washington men did not seemingly run their "A" lineup at that meet. In other words, that result is negligible in these calculations That, in turn, means that there is only one "head-to-head" matchup that we can evaluate. For that reason, Washington is given the second at-large qualifying spot to the national meet. The Huskies give out zero Kolas points to teams who are still waiting to be selected. At-Large Bid #3: Virginia Cavaliers Colorado and Michigan are still not eligible to be selected. Both teams still hold six Kolas points (each). The Eastern Kentucky men have six Kolas points. They are eligibile to be selected for an at-large bid and there is no other eligible team that has six or more Kolas points. However, the Colonels are projected to finish in 4th place behind Virginia at the Southeast regional meet. If the Virginia men were unable to qualify for the national meet on their own, then Eastern Kentucky would "push" them into the national meet. However, the NCAA wants to avoid any "push" scenarios when possible. And since we know that Eastern Kentucky will eventually qualify for the national meet later in the selection process, we're willing to bypass them for now. This leaves Virginia with four Kolas points, the most among all eligible teams who are still waiting to be selected (other than EKU). As such, UVA is selected to advance to the national meet. The Cavaliers give out one Kolas point (each) to Colorado, Michigan and Eastern Kentucky. At-Large Bid #4: Eastern Kentucky Colonels Colorado and Michigan are still not eligible to be selected. Both teams hold seven Kolas points (each). Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Eastern Kentucky men have the most Kolas points (seven). And now that Virginia has advanced to the national meet, the NCAA can select EKU to earn an at-large bid now that the Colonels do not "push" in the Cavaliers. EKU gives one Kolas point (each) to California Baptist, Colorado, Furman, Michigan, Utah State and Wyoming. At-Large Bid #5: Oregon Ducks (push) At-Large Bid #6: California Baptist Lancers Colorado and Michigan are still not eligible to be selected. Both teams hold eight Kolas points (each). The California Baptist men are eligible to be selected for an at-large bid. They also have the most Kolas points (four) among any team that is eligible to be selected. Naturally, they should be chosen to advance to the national meet. However, we are projecting the CBU men to finish in 5th place at the West Regional XC Championships. We are also predicting the Oregon men to finish one spot ahead of them in 4th place. The Oregon men have one Kolas point. They are not projected to advance to the national meet without a "push" scenario. Thankfully for the Ducks, the CBU men do have enough points to qualify for the national meet and can consequentially "push" Oregon into the national meet at the same time. Any teams who are "pushed" into the national meet do not yield Kolas points to other teams who are still waiting to be selected. California Baptist, however, was the not the team who got pushed in (instead, they were the ones doing the pushing). Even so, the Lancers do not give any Kolas points to teams who are still waiting to be selected. At-Large Bid #7: Wyoming Cowboys Colorado and Michigan are still not eligible to be selected. Both teams hold eight Kolas points (each). Wyoming, Georgetown and Furman are all eligible to be selected for a spot to the NCAA XC Championships. They each have three Kolas points, the most among all eligible teams who are waiting to be selected. Since each of these three teams are tied with each other in Kolas points, we must defer to a tie-breaking scenario. That, of course, would be the "head-to-head" comparison. Wyoming beat Furman earlier this season at Pre-Nationals. Georgetown beat Furman earlier this season at the Nuttycombe Invite. Furman has lost the tie-breaker. Wyoming and Georgetown never faced each other and both of their "head-to-head" tie-breaking records are 1-0. This leads us to go to the next tie-breaking scenario: record against common opponents. While Wyoming and Georgetown have not competed against each other directly this season, they did race against a large handful of the same teams. Therefore, we must determine how well Wyoming and Georgetown did against those teams. Whichever team has the greater win record will win this at-large spot. To avoid the minutiae of these common opponent records, our trusty Kolas calculator has told us that Wyoming would win this tie-breaking scenario. Therefore, Wyoming is the next team selected to qualify for the national meet. Wyoming gives out one Kolas point (each) to Utah State and Colorado State. At-Large Bid #8: Utah State Aggies Colorado and Michigan are still not eligible to be selected. Both teams hold eight Kolas points (each). Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Utah State men have the most Kolas points (four). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Aggies are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. Utah State does not give any Kolas points to teams who are still waiting to be selected. At-Large Bid #9: Texas Tech Red Raiders (push) At-Large Bid #10: Colorado Buffaloes Michigan is still not eligible to be selected. They have eight Kolas points. The Colorado men are now eligible to be selected. They have the most Kolas points (eight) among any team who is eligible to be selected at this point in the qualifying process. Naturally, they should be chosen to advance to the national meet. However, we are projecting the Colorado men to finish in 7th place at the Mountain Regional XC Championships. We are also predicting the Texas Tech men to finish one spot ahead of them in 6th place. The Texas Tech men have zero Kolas points. They are not projected to advance to the national meet without a "push" scenario. Thankfully for the Red Raiders, the Colorado men have enough points to qualify for the national meet and can consequentially "push" Texas Tech into the national meet at the same time. Any team who was "pushed" into the national meet does not yield Kolas points to other teams who are still waiting to be selected. Colorado, however, was the not the team who got pushed in (instead, they were the ones doing the pushing). The Buffaloes give one Kolas point (each) to Furman and Michigan. At-Large Bid #11: Furman Paladins Michigan is still not eligible to be selected. They have nine Kolas points. Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Furman men have the most Kolas points (four). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Paladins are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. Furman gives one Kolas point (each) to Air Force, Florida State, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Iona, Michigan, Montana State and Tulsa. At-Large Bid #12: Georgetown Hoyas Michigan is still not eligible to be selected. They have 10 Kolas points. Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Georgetown men have the most Kolas points (four). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Hoyas are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. Georgetown gives one Kolas point (each) to Butler and Michigan. At-Large Bid #13: Butler Bulldogs Michigan is still not eligible to be selected. They have 11 Kolas points. This is also the final at-large national qualifying spot that can be filled. In turn, the Wolverines are not expected to advance to the NCAA XC Championships. Butler, Tulsa and Iona are all eligible to be selected for a spot to the NCAA XC Championships. They each have three Kolas points, the most among all eligible teams who are waiting to be selected. Since each of these three teams are tied with each other in Kolas points, we must defer to a tie-breaking scenario. That, of course, would be the "head-to-head" comparison. Butler beat both Tulsa and Iona earlier this season at Pre-Nationals. Butler also did not race against those teams at any other point this fall. With an undefeated record against the other two at-large candidates, the Bulldogs are projected to earn the final spot to the NCAA XC Championships. If there had been any further Kolas calculations, Butler would have given one Kolas point (each) to Indiana and Illinois. First Team Out: Iona Gaels If we were to continue our Kolas math beyond the 13 at-large bids, which team would emerge as the "First Team Out" of the national meet? The Michigan men have 11 Kolas points. And with Butler now into the national meet, the Wolverines would be eligible to be selected for the non-existent 14th at-large qualifying spot. However, there is only one theoretical spot remaining and Michigan is projected to finish behind Michigan State, another team in their region who has not yet been selected. For that reason, Michigan would be not be considered our "First Team Out," since two teams can't occupy one spot. This leaves Tulsa and Iona with the most Kolas points (three) among all eligible teams. Since these two teams are tied with each other in Kolas points, we must defer to a tie-breaking scenario. That, of course, would be the "head-to-head" comparison. Iona beat Tulsa earlier this season at Pre-Nationals. Tulsa beat Iona earlier this season at the Nuttycombe Invite. However, Iona's win over Tulsa came more recently than it did for the Golden Hurricanes. As a result, the Gaels are the "First Team Out" of the national meet. TSR's Projected Women's Regional Results NOTE: TEAMS IN BOLD INDICATE AUTO-LOCKS GREAT LAKES 1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2. Wisconsin Badgers 3. Toledo Rockets 4. Michigan State Spartans 5. Michigan Wolverines MID-ATLANTIC 1. Georgetown Hoyas 2. West Virginia Mountaineers 3. Penn State Nittany Lions 4. Villanova Wildcats 5. Princeton Tigers MIDWEST 1. Oklahoma State Cowgirls 2. Minnesota Golden Gophers 3. Northwestern Wildcats 4. Iowa State Cyclones MOUNTAIN 1. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 2. BYU Cougars 3. Utah Utes 4. New Mexico Lobos 5. Utah Valley Wolverines 6. Colorado State Rams NORTHEAST 1. Providence Friars 2. Boston College Golden Eagles 3. Syracuse Orange 4. Harvard Crimson 5. Connecticut Huskies SOUTH 1. Alabama Crimson Tide 2. Tennessee Volunteers 3. Florida Gators 4. Florida State Seminoles 5. Lipscomb Bison SOUTH CENTRAL 1. Arkansas Razorbacks 2. Texas Longhorns 3. Tulane Green Wave 4. LSU Tigers SOUTHEAST 1. North Carolina Tar Heels 2. Virginia Cavaliers 3. NC State Wolfpack 4. Furman Paladins 5. Liberty Flames 6. Wake Forest Demon Deacons WEST 1. Oregon Ducks 2. Washington Huskies 3. Stanford Cardinal 4. Gonzaga Bulldogs 5. Portland Pilots 6. Boise State Broncos TSR's Projected Women's At-Large Qualifiers At-Large Bid #1: Stanford Cardinal Both the Stanford women and the NC State women have the most Kolas points (10) among teams who are eligible to be selected. Therefore, we must move to a "head-to-head" tie-breaker. This will allow us to find out which team will be given the first at-large spot to the NCAA XC Championships. In this case, the Stanford women and the NC State women have competed against each other twice, once at Pre-Nationals and once at the ACC XC Championships. NC State beat Stanford earlier this season at Pre-Nationals. Stanford beat NC State earlier this season at the ACC XC Championships. However, Stanford's win over NC State came more recently than it did for the Wolfpack. For that reason, the Cardinal are selected to qualify for the national meet. Stanford gives out one Kolas point (each) to Florida, Florida State, NC State and New Mexico. At-Large Bid #2: NC State Wolfpack Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the NC State women have the most Kolas points (11). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Wolfpack are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. NC State gives out one Kolas point to New Mexico. At-Large Bid #3: Utah Utes Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the New Mexico women have the most Kolas points (10). In theory, they should be the team who is next selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. However, the Lobos are projected to finish in 4th place behind Utah at the Mountain regional meet. If the Utah women were unable to qualify for the national meet on their own, then New Mexico would "push" them into the national meet. However, the NCAA wants to avoid any "push" scenarios when possible. And since we know that New Mexico will eventually qualify for the national meet later in the selection process, we're willing to bypass them for now. This leaves Virginia and Florida with nine Kolas points each, the most among all eligible teams who are still waiting to be selected (other than New Mexico). In order to determine which of these two teams will take this at-large spot, we must go to the tie-breaking process. We must first compare the "head-to-head" matchups that Utah and Florida have had against each other. The only problem is that these two teams have not yet raced against each other this fall. That means that we must move on to the next tie-breaking option -- record against common opponents. While Utah and Florida have not competed against each other directly this season, they did race against a large handful of the same teams. Therefore, we must determine how well Utah and Florida did against those teams. Whichever team has the greater win record will win this at-large spot. To avoid the minutiae of these common opponent records, our trusty Kolas calculator has told us that Utah would win this tie-breaking scenario. Therefore, Utah is the next team selected to qualify for the national meet. Utah does not give out any Kolas points. At-Large Bid #4: New Mexico Lobos Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the New Mexico women have the most Kolas points (10). And now that Utah has advanced to the national meet, the NCAA can select New Mexico to earn an at-large bid now that the Lobos do not "push" in the Utes. New Mexico does not give out any Kolas points. At-Large Bid #5: Florida Gators Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Florida women have the most Kolas points (nine). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Gators are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. Florida gives one Kolas point (each) to Florida State and Ole Miss. At-Large Bid #6: Florida State Seminoles Florida State and Furman are both eligible to be selected for a spot to the NCAA XC Championships. They each have eight Kolas points, the most among all eligible teams who are waiting to be selected. Since these two teams are tied with each other in Kolas points, we must defer to a tie-breaking scenario. That, of course, would be the "head-to-head" comparison. Florida State beat Furman earlier this season at Pre-Nationals. Furman beat Florida State earlier this season at the Nuttycombe Invite. Despite both teams having a win over each other, Florida State's win over Furman came more recently. For that reason, the Seminoles are selected to qualify for the national meet. Florida State gives out one Kolas point (each) to Furman, Gonzaga, Lipscomb, Penn State, Syracuse and Villanova. At-Large Bid #7: Furman Paladins Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Furman women have the most Kolas points (nine). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Paladins are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. Furman does not give any Kolas points to teams who are still waiting to be selected. At-Large Bid #8: Syracuse Orange Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Syracuse women have the most Kolas points (six). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Orange are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. Syracuse gives one Kolas point to Gonzaga and two Kolas points to Penn State. At-Large Bid #9: Penn State Nittany Lions Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Penn State women have the most Kolas points (six). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Nittany Lions are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. Penn States gives one Kolas point to Gonzaga. At-Large Bid #10: Gonzaga Bulldogs Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Gonzaga women have the most Kolas points (six). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Bulldogs are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. Gonzaga does not give any Kolas points to teams who are still waiting to be selected. At-Large Bid #11: Lipscomb Bison Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Lipscomb women have the most Kolas points (five). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Bison are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. Lipscomb does not give any Kolas points to teams who are still waiting to be selected. At-Large Bid #12: Toledo Rockets The Toledo women and Michigan State women have five Kolas points (each). They are both eligibile to be selected for an at-large bid. There are no other eligible teams who have five or more Kolas points. However, the Michigan State women are projected to finish in 4th place behind Toledo at the Great Lakes regional meet. There is no need to utilize a tie-breaking scenario, mainly because the 4th place team in a region cannot advance without the 3rd place team in that same region also advancing. With Toledo defeating Michigan State at their regional meet, the Rockets would get the nod for this at-large national qualifying spot regardless of the fact that they both have the same number of Kolas points. Toledo gives one Kolas point (each) to Louisville and Michigan State. At-Large Bid #13: Michigan State Spartans Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Michigan State women have the most Kolas points (five). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Spartans are the final team to earn an at-large qualifying spot to this year's NCAA XC Championships. If there had been any further Kolas calculations, Michigan State would have given one Kolas point (each) to Boise State, Liberty, Texas Tech and Wyoming. First Team Out: Villanova Wildcats If we were to continue our Kolas math beyond the 13 at-large bids, which team would emerge as the "First Team Out" of the national meet? Villanova and Liberty have the most Kolas points (three) among all eligible teams. Since these two teams are tied with each other in Kolas points, we must defer to a tie-breaking scenario. That, of course, would be the "head-to-head" comparison. The challenge, however, is that neither of these teams have faced each other in a "head-to-head" matchup this season. That means that we must move on to the next tie-breaking option -- record against common opponents. While Villanova and Liberty have not competed against each other directly this season, they did race against a large handful of the same teams. Therefore, we must determine how well Villanova and Liberty did against those teams. Whichever team has the greater win record will secure this non-existent 14th spot. While our Kolas calculator does not provide the answer for who the "First Team Out" would be, we are still able to do some calculations by hand. And in this instance, it seems that Villanova somewhat comfortably wins the "common opponents" tie-breaker over Liberty. As a result, the Wildcats are projected to be our "First Team Out" of this year's national meet.

Predictions by Donny Speas, edits via Garrett Zatlin The next set of predictions that we have for the high school postseason is the NXR Northwest meet! And generally speaking, this field is routinely one of the strongest in the nation with multiple contenders for at-large bids often emerging on both the boy's and girl's sides. The field comprises of teams and individuals from Washington, Hawaii, Oregon, Alaska, Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. While the Northwest region has a good number of nationally competitive teams, the region's most compelling storylines will unfold in the individual race. There, numerous contenders for the individual national title will be taking center stage. Due to our limited amount of time for writing and editing, we won't be offering any written analysis for these NXR prediction articles. We are, however, expanding our predictions to feature the top-20 individuals and the top-10 teams. Girl's Individual Race (5k) Emily Wisniewski (Crescent Valley) Chloe Huyler (Lakeridge) Sophia Rodriguez (Mercer Island) Cassidy Armstrong (Ballard) Victoria Rodriguez (Mercer Island) Nelida Dalgas (North Salem) Elektra Higgins (Peninsula) Hannah Huyler (Lakeridge) Maddie Carney (Caldera) Kylah Madariaga (Wenatchee) Emma Bennett (Jesuit) Lily LaPorte (Bishop Blanchet) Elyse Henriksen (Lincoln) Paisley Taylor (Meridian) Latham West (Bonney Lake) Emma West (Crater) Sophia Capozzi (Summit) Taylor Sletner (Gig Harbor) Daisy Lalonde (East Linn Christian) Ellery Lincoln (Lincoln) Boy's Individual Race (5k) Owen Powell (Mercer Island) Josiah Tostenson (Crater) Maximus Cervi-Skinner (Coeur D'Alene) Tayvon Kitchen (Crater) Hayden Boaz (Summit) Nate Stadtlander (Meridian) Malachi Schoenherr (Sheldon) Vincent Recupero (Bishop Blanchet) Ty Cirino (Central) Jack Sheesley (Boise) Cooper Boyle (Cooper Boyle) Mason Morical (Caldera) Connor Rickey (Issaquah) Zackery Cervi-Skinner (Coeur D'Alene) Dylan Rowell (Anacortes) Zachary Leader (Redmond) Sawyer Marquis (Forest Grove) Zafer Courcelle (Franklin) Wyatt Carr (Coeur D'Alene) Clayton Wilson (Siuslaw) Girl's Team Race Rocky Mountain Grizzlies (ID) Jesuit Crusaders (OR) Timberline Wolves (ID) Sehome Mariners (WA) Boise Brave (ID) Mercer Island Islanders (WA) Sunset Apollos (OR) Lakeridge Pacers (OR) Crater Comets (OR) Gallatin Raptors (MT) Boy's Team Race Coeur d'Alene Vikings (ID) Crater Comets (OR) Rocky Mountain Grizzlies (ID) Jesuit Crusaders (OR) Sehome Mariners (WA) Mercer Island Islanders (WA) Issaquah Eagles (WA) Summit Storm (OR) Star Valley Braves (WY) Bozeman Hawks (MT)

Last night, The Stride Report published our official Kolas projections for which teams will qualify for this year's NCAA D1 XC Championships. Of course, our projections are just one of many scenarios that could unfold throughout tomorrow. Below, we wanted to highlight some of the biggest and most important regions that could dictate who the last few teams to qualify for the national meet will be. If you want to run your own calculations, then you can go to KolasCalc.com or xcquals.com and play around with the orders in each region! If you're someone who is struggling to understand how this national qualifying system works, then you can visit our UNDERSTANDING KOLAS page. And, of course, if you want to see our official projections, then you can check them out by reviewing our KOLAS page . Alright...let's get into it. NOTE: The Stride Report is using our original Kolas projections as the basis for this article. Other projections from other outlets/individuals could look very different based on the smallest differences. The below analysis should not be viewed as definitive, but rather what TSR has calculated in a handful of realistic scenarios. Are the Oregon Men Safe in the National Qualifying Conversation? We're Not Convinced That They Are... Our Current Scenario The NCAA's cross country national qualifying process (also known as Kolas) is extremely dynamic. Attempting to predict which teams will advance to the national meet is not as simple as picking 31 programs and moving on. The smallest adjustment in the results of one regional meet could cause an avalanche of change throughout the country. That, in turn, could leave a handful of deserving teams out of the national qualifying picture (and it's happened before). Take this year's West regional meet on the mens side for example. In our current scenario, we have the Stanford men and the Portland men earning automatic national qualifying positions (top-two) in the West region. Behind them, we have Washington, Oregon and California Baptist crossing the line in 3rd, 4th and 5th place (in that order). If our predictions for that region are correct, then all five of those teams will likely be advancing to the NCAA XC Championships. What Could Change Admittedly, the Portland men may not be the popular pick to earn the second automatic qualifying spot in the West region. In the eyes of many, Washington is seemingly favored to earn that position. So...what happens in that scenario? If we see an order of Stanford, Washington, Portland, Oregon and CBU on Friday, and then apply that order to our Kolas projections, then ONLY Stanford and Washington move on. Portland, Oregon and CBU would all end their seasons early. But what happens if Oregon gets 3rd place? Well, if Portland is the 4th place team, then the Ducks STILL don't get in. However, if California Baptist is the 4th place team, then the Lancers would "push" Oregon into the national meet. Major Takeaways To put it simply, the Oregon men MUST beat one of Stanford, Washington or California Baptist if they want to qualify for the national meet. Not only that, but they must beat one of those three teams and then ensure that one of them finishes directly behind them in the final results. Portland does not help them. This exercise of Kolas acrobatics largely doesn't matter if Oregon emerges as a top-two team in the region. However, there are arguably just as many scenarios where the Ducks don't qualify for the national meet as there are scenarios where they do advance. And on one final note, everything that we just said assumes that Gonzaga will not crack the top-five -- and that is very much a possibility. The Toledo & Michigan State Women Seemingly Have a 50/50 Shot of Qualifying for the NCAA XC Championships Our Current Scenario When it comes to our women's Kolas projections, we have the Notre Dame women and Wisconsin women taking the top-two spots in the Great Lakes region. We feel pretty good about that happening and don't expect that to change. However, in the 3rd and 4th place positions, we have Toledo and Michigan State filling those spots, respectively. And if our predictions for the other regional meets actually play out how we think they will, then both the Rockets and the Spartans will have qualified for the national meet. Sure, it's unlikely that our predictions will be perfectly correct, but compared to the men's side, the women's regional meets seemingly hold far less volatility. In fact, Toledo and Michigan State could switch spots in our projections and they would both still qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. What Could Change Despite both Toledo and Michigan State being projected to advance to the national meet, the smallest change in two or three other regions could ultimately be their downfall on Friday. For instance, what would happen if Liberty took 4th place in the Southeast region, beating out a team like Virginia, Furman, UNC or NC State? In that scenario, Liberty gets "pushed" into the national meet and Michigan State does not advance (but Toledo still does). And what if there was an unexpected "push" scenario in yet another region? Maybe that's Penn State pushing in Villanova in the Mid-Atlantic region, Florida pushing in Tennessee in the South region or Texas pushing in LSU in the South Central region. If a second region produces a "push" scenario, then neither Toledo nor Michigan State would qualify for the national meet. But let's erase everything and go back to our original qualifying projections. What would happen if the Tulane women take down Texas for the second automatic national qualifying spot? Well, that scenario, the Longhorns would actually grab an at-large bid, taking a spot away from Michigan State. Toledo, however, would remain in the national meet field. Major Takeaways Ultimately, the Toledo women and Michigan State women are going to be at the mercy of other teams in other regions. They will be praying for zero "push" scenarios to happen. If just one "push" scenario does happen, then the 4th place team in the Great Lakes region is likely not qualifying for the national meet. And if there is a second "push" scenario, then it's very possible that the Great Lakes region does not produce an at-large bid at all for this year's NCAA XC Championships. The West & Great Lakes Regions Control the Destinies of the Georgetown, Tulsa & Iona Men Our Current Scenario Of the three teams mentioned above, Georgetown is likely the safest in terms of national qualifying. There are a large handful of (realistic) scenarios where, as long as the Hoyas place 3rd in the Mid-Atlantic region, they will earn a spot to the national meet. That, of course, is not to say that Georgetown is invincible. There are still multiple scenarios where the DC-based men fail to advance to the NCAA's grand finale. But...what about everyone else? What Could Change The Great Lakes region is going to be madness. The Butler men, the Michigan State men and the Michigan men should be entering Friday's race focused in each other. Sure, they could try to beat Wisconsin and/or Notre Dame to earn an automatic qualifying spot, but an upset of that magnitude seems unlikely. The ultimate goal should be to place 3rd at the Great Lakes regional meet. If Butler or Michigan are able to accomplish that, then they would qualify for the national meet in nearly every realistic scenario that we have run. There is a scenario where Michigan State places 3rd and does not advance to the NCAA XC Championships. However, that likely means that Butler was the 4th place team behind them. If the Michigan men are the 4th place team behind them, then the Spartans would get "pushed" into the national meet by their in-state rivals. That, in turn, would be one of the few instances where Georgetown does not qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. But if the Butler men were to be that 4th place team behind Michigan State, then the Great Lakes region would not be given an at-large bid to the national meet in our projections. Instead, fringe teams such as Georgetown and Iona would be given the nod. Tulsa, however, would still be absent. In our current Kolas projections, we have five teams making it out of the West region (two autos and three at-large bids). However, as we mentioned above, it is very possible that the West region does not receive a single at-large bid at all! If that happens, then that gives the teams in the Great Lakes region far greater breathing room. Butler, Michigan and Michigan State would all advance to the national meet (in that order) while Georgetown and Iona would also find spots to the "Big Dance." And yet, even in that scenario, Tulsa doesn't find themselves on the national stage. In order for that to happen, Tulsa needs to hope that Michigan State does not get into the national meet, whether that be through an at-large bid or a "push" scenario. If the Spartans fall too far back, then the door opens for the Golden Hurricanes...assuming that the West region does not send more than two teams to Madison, Wisconsin. Major Takeaways I know that was a lot of nitty-gritty analysis, so let's summarize all of that as effectively as we can... The Georgetown men are not guaranteed to get into the national meet, but they have a very good shot of doing so. Teams in the Great Lakes regions, as well as Georgetown, Iona and Tulsa, are all rooting against the men's teams in the West region. Tulsa has a chance of qualifying for the national meet, but that would require two fairly substantial developments happening in both the West region and the Great Lakes region. Villanova's (Very Narrow) Path to the NCAA XC Championships Goes Through the South & South Central Regions Our Current Scenario Our women's Kolas projections feel pretty chalk this year. There aren't too many areas where there could be a ton of dramatic changes. And yet, despite that, there does seem to be an opening for the Villanova women. The Wildcats are projected to place 4th in the Mid-Atlantic region behind Georgetown, West Virginia and Penn State, three teams who are heavily favored to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. However, in order to place 4th, Villanova will need to get past a respectable (but beatable) Princeton team. If that happens, then you would think that the Wildcats would be rooting against Michigan State and/or Toledo. That, however, isn't necessarily true. In our Kolas scenario, it doesn't matter which of those teams finish in 3rd or 4th place. So...which regions hold the catalyst for change? What Could Change The women's South Central region, which has historically been negligible in prior years of Kolas calculations, is one of two regions that will make or break Villanova's season on Friday. With Sydney Thorvaldson back to racing, we feel good enough about Arkansas taking one of the two automatic qualifying spots in the South Central region. However, that second automatic qualifying spot could go to Texas, Tulane or LSU. If Texas earns the second automatic national qualifying spot, then Villanova should feel encouraged, but not safe. However, if Tulane or LSU earn that spot, then the Wildcats are almost certainly out of the national qualifying conversation regardless of what happens elsewhere. The final step in Villanova's path to NCAA XC Championships comes from the South region...and admittedly, it's a big ask. Villanova needs to place 4th in the Mid-Atlantic region and Texas needs to take the other automatic qualifying spot in the South Central region. The final step for the Wildcats to advance is if a "push" scenario happens in the South region. The South region consists of teams like Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, Florida State and Lipscomb. In fact, that is the order that we are predicting for the team standings tomorrow. If that happens, then each of those teams would earn an at-large bid to the national meet without a "push" scenario. That would give other teams waiting to be selected a valuable Kolas point. But if a "push" scenario happens, then one less Kolas point is given to other teams who are waiting to be selected. That effectively opens the door for Villanova to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. The only problem? There are very few scenarios where a "push" happens in the South region. Florida placing 5th and Tennessee placing 4th in the South region is one of two Kolas scenario we found where a team (in this case, Tennessee) gets "pushed" into the national meet. The other scenario is if Lipscomb joins Alabama for the second auto spot while Tennessee finishes in 3rd place. And as long as Florida or Florida State finish behind the Vols, then a "push" scenario would happen, giving Villanova a spot to the national meet. Major Takeaways To make a very long story short, Villanova still has a chance to advance to the national meet. However, in order for that to happen, three separate things all need to happen... The Wildcats need to place at least 4th in their region. Texas needs to get an automatic qualifying spot in the South Central region. A "push" scenario, likely coming from Tennessee, needs to happen in the South region. Each of scenarios are fairly realistic possibilities. However, having all three of those steps come together on the same day seems unlikely. In other words, the Wildcats are at the mercy of the Kolas calculator.