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  • The Weekend Review (5/7/17)

    Oxy Invite 3000 Steeplechase Freshman Clayson Shumway (BYU) was the top American collegiate with an impressive time of 8:47 (NCAA #12). He was followed by fellow collegian Ryan Driscoll (San Francisco) who ran a time of 8:50 for fourth overall. 5000 UCLA alumni Lane Werley was the winner in a time of 13:59. He defeated redshirt freshman Caleb Webb (Portland) who was a second behind in a time of 14 flat. Dominik Notz (Alaska Anchorage) finished in third overall also with a time of 14 flat. Hokie Twilight 800 Vincent Ciattei (Virginia Tech) threw down a 1:48.46 to secure the win over teammate Neil Gourley who ran 1:49.88 for second. 1500 Virginia Tech sophomore Diego Zarate took the win by nearly six seconds with a time 3:46. ACU Oliver Jackson Twilight 800 Erik Martinsson (UT-Arlington) soloed a time of 1:48.53 to cross the line in first. Ivy League Championships 800 Myles Marshall (Harvard) took the win in a time of 1:53 to secure his second individual Heps title. 1500 In one of the more underrated 1500’s of the weekend, Rob Napolitano (Columbia) out ran some very talented milers in a winning time of 3:45. He defeated Princeton’s Will Paulson (2nd), Yale’s James Randon (3rd), and Penn’s Chris Hatler (4th) in the process. 3000 Steeplechase Penn’s Nick Tuck secured the win in a time of 9 flat. 5000 Ryan Thomas (Columbia) was the next Columbia Lion to get a win in the distance events with a time of 14:13. Cornell’s Dominic DeLuca was runner-up in 14:16. 10,000 In a very tactical 10k, Mark Tedder (Cornell) took the win in a time of 31:55. Indiana State University Twilight 1500 On his home track, Indiana State’s David Timlin ran a very strong 3:42 to out-perform Indiana’s Joseph Murphy who ran a time of 3:44 for second. Payton Jordan Invite 1500: REGULAR Despite all eyes being on the longer distances, there were plenty of great surprises that came out of the 1500. The biggest surprise came from Arizona’s Carlos Villarreal who ran a massive personal best of 3:41.75 to secure the win (for his section) and grab the 16th spot in the NCAA standings. Villarreal is an established miler who has had some solid performances, but this was his true breakout race when you consider that he had a personal best of 3:45 prior to this race. The next collegiate to cross the line must’ve read our Where You At? article. Stanford’s Sean McGorty finally made his outdoor debut after an injury kept him away from competition for the entirety of the winter season. McGorty was 4th in his heat with a time of 3:46 which is decent when you consider that he was out of commission for so long. He may not be in top form, but he still has a chance of making nationals. 1500: ELITE In the elite section, Syracuse’s Adam Palamar ran a season best of 3:42 to secure his spot at regionals. 3000 Steeplechase: REGULAR We FINALLY have a collegiate steeplechase under the 8:40 barrier! Gonzaga’s Troy Fraley ran a great race and finished runner-up in a field filled with professionals. Fraley now tops the NCAA leaderboard with a time of 8:39. Daniel Carney (BYU) and Scott Carpenter (Georgetown) each ran 8:48 to finish 6th and 7th (respectively) in their section. 3000 Steeplechase: ELITE Despite this being the supposed “faster” section of the two heats, no collegiate broke 8:40 in this race. Edwin Kibichiy (Louisville) was the top collegiate in a time of 8:42 which is good for NCAA #4. Darren Fahy (Georgetown) and Troy Reeder (Furman) each ran 8:46 and 8:47 respectively. 5000: REGULAR Clayton Young (BYU) and Amon Terer (Campbell) stayed competitive with the likes of Matt Centrowitz and Drew Hunter who led these two collegiates to a time of 13:50. BYU’s Rory Linkletter and Jonathan Harper ran 13:52 and 14:03 respectively. 5000: ELITE The entire focus of this race was to see if Edward Cheserek could break the NCAA 5k record of 13:08 and become enshrined in the record books. Yet, while Cheserek got all of the attention, it was Justyn Knight who truly deserved the recognition. By the last two laps of the race, it was clear that Knight was looking strong and had a legitimate chance of not only beating Cheserek, but winning the entire race. Sure enough, Knight took off and sustained an incredible kick to bury Cheserek and hold off Villanova alum Sam McEntee for the win. The time may not have been a collegiate record, but Knight did record a mind-blowing 13:17 to become NCAA #4 All-Time in the event. Despite faltering on the last lap, Edward Cheserek still finished in a very respectable time of 13:24. So what do these results mean for the future? Is Cheserek still the title favorite? Or will Justyn Knight now have the upper-hand come June? Fun fact: Out of the three times Cheserek and Knight have raced throughout this academic year, Knight has won twice (2016 NCAA XC and 2017 Payton Jordan). The next collegiate to cross the line was Southern Utah’s Mike Tate who ran an awesome race in a time of 13:34. This is an excellent improvement off of his previous 13:39 personal best from the Stanford Invite earlier this season. His development has been very encouraging and you have to think that he’ll be an All-American this June. The last collegiate finisher was Erik Peterson (Butler) who finished in an underwhelming time of 13:57. The Butler senior is certainly better geared for the longer distances and I know he can run faster, but I was definitely hoping for a better 5k performance from him. 10,000 Marc Scott (Tulsa) was the only collegiate in this race and he held his own against one of the most elite 10k fields so far this year. The Tulsa senior finished the race 12th overall in an impressive time of 28:07. Although his time is impressive, I thought we would see Scott run a bit faster. Payton Jordan seemed to be the last big opportunity for a collegiate to go under the 28 minute barrier and I was hoping that Scott could pull it off. According to TFRRS, there has always been at least one individual to break 28 minutes since 2010. Now, it seems like a very real possibility that 2017 ends without a collegiate under 28 minutes. #gzatlin #paytonjordan #ncaa #cheserek #weekendreview

  • Where You At?

    Each season, fans of distance running are always treated to new and exciting individuals that begin to contend on the national level. Who would’ve thought that Emmanuel Korir would run 1:43? Or that Josh Kerr would upset Ches? Or how about the recent success from the men at Southern Utah? The emergence of these thrilling performers has kept us entertained and fixated on weekly results. Of course, it’s easy to overlook the already established names…especially when they aren’t racing much (or at all). Let’s take a glance at some of the guys we haven’t seen much of this season… Sean McGorty (Stanford) The biggest and perhaps most glaring miss of the season is the absence of the Stanford distance star. With PR’s of 3:53 (mile) and 13:24, you would think that more people would be talking about where this guy is. After an underwhelming cross country season, McGorty sustained an injury that would force him to forfeit the entirety of his indoor track season. In fact, the same thing happened with Stanford ace Grant Fisher who also had to suspend his racing plans until the spring season. Now, it’s May 3rd and we have yet to see any sign of McGorty so far this season despite Fisher already competing (and doing quite well) in two races. What happened to the one of the best runners in the NCAA? Is he still injured? Prolonging his outdoor debut? Those are possibilities, but are also pretty unlikely. We also can’t argue the idea of redshirting since McGorty has already used his redshirt season during his freshman year in 2014 (both indoors and outdoors). Knowing this begs the question of what could possibly be the reason for him not yet racing? Stanford is a bit picky about when they choose to race, but we are getting to a very late point in the season… Daniel Kuhn, Senior, Indiana Indiana is a program that races just about as much as any other team in the nation. With that in mind, you would think that we would have seen more of 800-meter stud Daniel Kuhn who secured his first All-American honor this past indoor season when he placed 6th at nationals. Unfortunately, Kuhn has been M.I.A. since late March after he ran a very disappointing 1:51 to place 9th at the PAC 12 vs BIG 10 meet. He hasn’t had a single race since then. A poor race followed by a lack of competition is not a good sign at all and it may indicate that there is some type of injury or illness that Kuhn is working with. Despite 2017 being a very strong year for the half-mile, Kuhn could have been back on the podium once more and even dipped down into the 1:45’s this spring after running 1:46.42 in February. But with only two or so weeks left in the season, it’s beginning to look like we’ve seen the last of Kuhn competing at the NCAA level. Ole Miss Milers The Mississippi Rebels have developed a strong group of milers over the past few seasons and have become one of the better distance programs in the nation. Their ability to compete at nearly every distance in conjunction with some impressive depth makes this a scary good team. Of course, they’re only a “scary good team” if they race…and that hasn’t happened yet in 2017. Robert Domanic, Trevor Gilley, and Sean Tobin have yet to race so far this season. Together, this trio makes up the core of the Ole Miss program and keep the Rebels relevant on the national stage. That’s not an exaggeration either, especially when you consider that Gilley and Domanic have PR’s of 3:40 in the 1500 while Tobin owns a mile PR of 3:59 from this freshman year. Unlike McGorty and Kuhn, I’m not worried about these three not racing. Based solely off of speculation, Mississippi may be taking the NAU approach where they are redshirting a heavy portion of their team to prep for a title run next year (but on the track compared to XC). The Furman Paladins seemingly took the same approach this past fall as they redshirted a heavy portion of their would-be seniors so that they may return for the 2017 cross country season and pursue the team title. However, as I mentioned above, this is just speculation. There could plenty of other reasons why they haven’t run yet. Still, you have to think these guys are just waiting to take the NCAA by storm in 2017-2018. Established Long-Distance Leaders The great thing about the 5k and 10k distances is that there is often a lot of depth and anything can happen over such a long period of time. This allows new and emerging stars to enter the top of the NCAA standings while established names like the ones below are quickly dismissed. Maybe that’s why we’ve forgotten that Andrew Ronoh (Arkansas) had the 2nd fastest 10k during the 2016 outdoor season… but hasn’t run during 2017. Or what about Cerake Geberkidane (Oklahoma State) who made NCAA’s last spring as a redshirt freshman, but has been out of all race results since getting injured during the 2016 cross country season? Lawrence Kipkoech (Campbell) wan an All-American during XC this past fall and was one of only three individuals to qualify for both the 5k and 10k at NCAA’s last spring. Now, he’s nowhere to be seen after running three unexciting races this past indoor season. Brian Barraza (Houston) is one of the biggest names to take a redshirt spring season after soloing a huge 8:32 steeplechase two weekend’s ago. The 2017 indoor All-American would be the top steeplechaser in the nation by eight seconds if he ran under the Houston name this season. In a year where the steeplechase title is open for anyone, you have to wonder if redshirting this season was the right choice… Although elite athletes like Cheserek, Knight, and Scott will take the spotlight and control certain races from the front, the absence of the four names above certainly plays a large role in who will become an All-American at the end of this season. While there are plenty of athletes to be excited about, it’s hard not to think about “what could have been” for so many others… #WhereYouAt #ncaa #gzatlin

  • Who Can Beat Kerr?

    Josh Kerr is the NCAA’s newest starlet. After a shocking upset win against Edward Cheserek in the mile at the Indoor National Championships, Kerr silenced any and all naysayers with an absurd 3:35 at the Bryan Clay Invite. If that wasn't impressive enough, the New Mexico stud is just a sophomore. Kerr’s already displayed the high race IQ to take down King Ches AND the speed to clock a time that is rarely accomplished at the collegiate level. Taking all of this into account, it is with good reason to believe that Kerr could dominate the NCAA mile/1500 at nationals for the next two and a half years (assuming he doesn’t turn pro)! With the high level of talent that currently competes on the college scene, it seems flabbergasting that Kerr could win potentially 6 NCAA titles in essentially one event (3xIndoor Mile, 3xOutdoor 1500), so let’s look at some names that could maybe bring him down. Edward Cheserek This one feels like a bit of a pipe dream, but I have to mention it just in case. Ches is the collegiate record holder for the mile indoors with his ridiculous 3:52 at BU this year. Based on this evidence, we know that Ches could hang with Kerr in an all-out effort. On the other hand, we have seen Kerr beat Ches in a tactical race, but that feels like a bit of an outlier. Ches was coming back from the 5k and that seemed to play a role on his race. That’s not to take away from Kerr’s shocking upset, but if Ches were to go all in for the 1500 at NCAAs this spring, he would be the heavy favorite. This is all probably for not, however, as it is pretty unlikely that Ches runs the 1500 for his final championship meet. Barring a surprise decision from Andy Powell and The King, Kerr is probably safe on this front. The Wiley Vets Ed Cheserek is clearly the ace of his class, but there are still some pretty talented names in the 1500 field with a lot of race experience who will not be intimidated by Kerr’s résumé. After the likes of Clayton Murphy, Izaic Yorks, and Brannon Kidder all left the NCAA, there were plenty of names outside of Kerr’s that appeared ready to fill the 1500 power vacuum. One of those names (and unsurprisingly, the name I’m starting out with) is Craig Engels. A couple weeks ago, I backed Engels as the favorite for a national title based on his superior PR’s over Kerr. Now, I don’t want to take credit for Kerr running 3:35, but he probably read what I wrote about him (which was published just before Bryan Clay, I might add) and decided to make me look dumb. Well Josh, mission accomplished. Anyway, Engels is still a very dangerous runner to Kerr. I know the sensational Scottish superstar beat Engels head to head at Bryan Clay by nearly two seconds, but let’s look at the senior’s credentials: PRs of 1:46/3:37, All American honors in the 1500 (something that Kerr cannot boast), an NCAA title in his own right in the DMR, a proven track record in advancing through rounds when healthy, and still the most swagger of anyone in the NCAA. He may not be the favorite, but I would not be shocked to see Engels bring home the victory at nationals. Despite his struggles over this past year, Henry Wynne remains one of the most interesting names in the 1500 discussion. Sure, he isn’t the Henry Wynne of last year who seemingly couldn’t lose for months on end, but the Virginia senior appears to be trending in the right direction. The 3:42 at the Virginia Challenge isn’t earth shattering, but he did manage to beat big names like James Randon and Neil Gourley. If Wynne can find his stride heading towards the postseason, he is a real threat to win a title. Let’s not forget Wynne flashed incredible maturity and race instincts over the course of last year. That doesn’t go away, and that makes Wynne relevant in any discussion. A final senior with the capacity to take down Kerr is Josh Thompson of Oklahoma State. A transfer athlete, Thompson has been a revelation for the Cowboys, taking the NCAA by storm, clocking PRs of 3:38/3:56. Although Thompson hasn’t always been at his best for nationals, his strong kick makes him a danger in any race. Time after time, Thompson has flashed the capacity to fly by his rivals coming down the homestretch, seemingly out of nowhere. If the 1500 final is tactical this spring, perhaps Thompson could steal a victory much in the fashion of his former teammate Chad Noelle, who won the 1500 in 2015, using a strong kick to win in tactical 3:54. Oregon Ducks Not Named Edward Cheserek The Oregon Ducks are loaded with milers the same way my writing is littered with bad jokes. The youngest, and potentially biggest threat to Josh Kerr, is freshman Austin Tamagno. A highly-touted prospect in high school, Tamagno has started his collegiate career well, clocking some good times during indoor, helping the Oregon DMR team to All-American accolades, and running a 3:41.33 at Bryan Clay, which is good enough for 10th fastest in the entire country as of right now (I’m writing this on April 27th). While Tamagno has looked good thus far, we haven’t seen him run an individual event at nationals, and the jump from 3:41 to 3:35 is extreme. Another Oregon runner who poses a potential risk to Kerr’s dominance is Matt Maton. Sub-four out of high school, Maton wasted no time adjusting to collegiate racing. Still just a sophomore, Maton’s accomplishments range from PRs of 3:39/3:58 to All American honors in cross country. Maton’s strength bodes well for him, but does he have the raw speed to compete with Kerr in a final kick? A final Duck worth noting is Blake Haney, who appears to be on track to overcome the struggles he’s dealt with over the past few months. It is easy to forget that in outdoor of 2015 and indoor of 2015/16, Haney was the darling of the NCAA: he finished 3rd at nationals as a true freshman, and followed up with a 3:56 mile and a runner-up showing at indoor nationals. After missing All-American for the past two track seasons, Haney ran 3:42 at Bryan Clay, which will hopefully kickstart his comeback tour. Now a junior, I question Haney’s ability to get back to elite level and challenge Kerr. While Tim Gorman and Sam Prakel are both talented runners for the Ducks, neither is winning an NCAA title anytime soon. Wildcards! There are a number of talented runners across the NCAA who may not immediately come to find as milers or top contenders, but I’m mentioning them just in case they ever do beat Kerr, I’ll look very smart. Justyn Knight, as mentioned above, is one of the premier runners in college, and has underrated speed as a miler (he’s known for his long-distance accolades, but he’s run 3:39/3:56). Knight has never pursued middle distance events at nationals, but he’s a proven racer and uber talented. The Stanford duo of Grant Fisher and Thomas Ratcliffe were both highly touted milers in high schoolers, and have both had standout races since joining the Cardinal (Fisher with obviously a more proven track record). Although Stanford tends to race their studs in the 5k outside, it seems possible one or both of these young guns could race Kerr indoors. While Rob Heppenstall continues to be the most underrated runners in college, Texas sophomore Alex Rogers is a top contender for second; he qualified for nationals in the 1500m as a true freshman, and has improved his PRs to 1:48/3:40 this outdoor season. Unfortunately for those hoping for a matchup, Rogers has also run 8:48 in the steeple, and the smart money would be on him racing in that come nationals. Colorado’s Ben Saarel never seems to be 100%, but if he is at full strength for the championship season, Mark Wetmore may be able to work his magic and steal a title. This one seems like a long-shot now, but if Michael Slagowski were to make a comeback, an upset national title would make for just a perfect ending to his story. It’s easy to forget just how dominant he was prior to joining Penn State. Speaking of the Nittany Lions, Domenic Perretta has been one of the best true freshman in the country. Could he follow in the footsteps of Brannon Kidder and make the jump to the 1500/mile? Stranger things have happened. Current High Schoolers Could Josh Kerr’s kryptonite not even be in college yet? The high school class of 2017 features three runners who have already run 4:00: DJ Principe, Sam Worley, and Cooper Teare. Principe is headed to Stanford and will likely join the Fisher/Ratcliffe coalition to move up to longer distancs, but Worley and Teare are bound for Texas and Oregon respectively, where they will likely focus in on the mile. Joining Worley at Texas is Reed Brown, who boasts a PR of 4:03. If Brown, Worley, or Teare make a big jump at the next level, maybe they could contend with an older Kerr. Are there runners who may end up beating Kerr that I totally forgot? Probably. Could Kerr continue his reign over the NCAA for the next couple of years and make this entire writeup irrelevant? Given my track record, that’s likely as well. But if one of these guys mentioned here does end up toppling Kerr for a national title, Garrett will never hear the end of my bragging, and that makes it all worth it. #ncaa #joshkerr #questions #afox #cheserek

  • The Weekend Review (4/30/17)

    Brutus Hamilton Invite 800 Should we be surprised by Emmanuel Korir anymore? The true freshman had a huge impact during the past indoor season by running the number one time in the NCAA and winning the national championship. And this season? Somehow, he's taken it to another level. The true freshman from Kenya ripped open a HUGE time of 1:43.73 which is the second fastest time ever in the NCAA 800. Prior to Korir’s performance, four men (in 2017) had dipped under the 1:46 mark and were all in the conversation to win the NCAA title. But now? The UTEP Miner has made himself the heavy favorite and will most likely pursue the NCAA record in due time. Just a quick thought before we move on. Could Korir go pro after this season if he breaks the NCAA record? We didn’t think Brazier would do it after just one season on the collegiate scene, but here we are… Mile Thomas Joyce (Cal) was able to edge out Jonah Koech (UTEP) 4:02.53 to 4:02.96. I’m still waiting for these guys to have their big race of the season. Lenny Lyles-Clark Wood Invite 800 Quamel Prince (Tennessee St.) took the win in a time of 1:48 while Nickson Rotich (EKU) and Luke Horton (Southern Illinois) each ran 1:49. UF Tom Jones Memorial 800 Jake Burton (FSU) ran 1:49.21 to defeat Florida rival Jack Guyton who was second in a time of 1:50.32. 1500 Andres Arroyo is only a half-miler…right? Wrong. The Florida senior threw down a killer time of 3:41 this past weekend to take the win and assert himself as someone who can run more than just the 800. Is it just me or is there something different about Arroyo this season? He’s running the fastest he’s ever run and doing so with different racing styles. With a strong display of range, you can’t help but think that Arroyo has found the formula to once again become an All-American. Penn Relays 3000 Steeple Our original pick to win was Oklahoma’s Dylan Blankenbaker. Unfortunately, he did not run and the top collegiate finisher ended up being Indiana’s Jeremy Coughler who ran a very solid time of 8:50. Coughler led three other collegians under the nine-minute mark. 5000 It was one of the better 5k fields we’ve seen in the past few weeks with plenty of underrated top-tier individuals entered to race. Jacob Thomson (Kentucky) emerged as the winner with a time of 13:53 as he was able to hold off Willy Fink (EMU) and Julian Oakley (Providence) who ran times of 13:54 and 13:55 respectively. Steve Flynn (George Mason) was the last collegian under the 14-minute barrier with a time of 13:57. 10,000 Georgetown did quite well in this event with Jonathan Green (1st) and Michael Crozier (3rd) running 29:26 and 29:38 respectively to establish themselves as the top collegiate finishers. Freshman Steven Cross (FSU) was running unattached, but took the runner-up position in a time of 29:31. 4x800 It was one of the most highly anticipated races of the weekend as mid-distance powerhouses Virginia Tech, Clemson, and Penn State toed the line in an attempt to claim the title of "800U". When the dust settled, it was the Virginia Tech Hokies taking the win by nearly seven seconds with a time of 7:13. VT was the only relay that had all four legs run under 1:50. Drew Piazza ran the fastest split of the relay with a time of 1:46.95. Penn State edged out Clemson for second with each relay running 7:20.54 and 7:20.94 respectively. Clemson’s fastest split was from Mpho Makofane who ran 1:47.66. Penn State’s fastest split came from neither Isaiah Harris nor Domenic Perretta. Instead, it came from Jordan Mankins who split a time of 1:48.37. 4xMile Every year, the Penn Relay’s 4xMile builds up incredible hype. Some of the best distance programs in the nation step on to the track and look to flex their dominance on one of world’s biggest stages. Yet, as fate would have it, the event always seems to be a bit disappointing in terms of time. This year was certainly no exception as literally not a single individual broke the 4-minute mile in this event. 13 teams finished the race which meant that not one of the 52 individuals on that track could break the sub four minute barrier. That said, should we really be surprised? This marks the third straight year where no split has been under four minutes. But I digress… Despite Edward Cheserek not running, the Oregon Ducks were still able to get the win in 16:21 with consistent and solid efforts from all four legs. That relay included Mick Stanovsek, Tim Gorman, Blake Haney, and Sam Prakel. Indiana and Middle Tennessee State were the next two teams in with times of 16:22 and 16:23 respectively. For perspective, American Fork’s national high school record of 16:41 would have placed 8th in this meet. DMR Déjà vu. It was like watching the 4xMile all over again. We saw the same three teams claim the same three spots with Oregon running a time of 9:32. Sam Prakel ran 3:59 on the anchor. Indiana, MTSU, and Penn took the next three spots and all teams finished with times of 9:33. Drake Relays 5000 You have to be happy for Drake senior Reed Fischer. In his last collegiate season, Fischer broke the school record on his home track at one of the biggest meets of the weekend with a time of 13:48. He took down Wisconsin star Malachy Schrobilgen in the process (who ran a time of 13:49). Joel Reichow (South Dakota) and sophomore Jesse Reiser (Illinois) held their own as they recorded times of 13:53 and 13:54. Dylan Lafond (Illinois) and Russell Sandvold (Wisconsin) ran 13:56 and 13:57 respectively. Resier was the only underclassmen to dip under the 14 minute barrier. 10,000 Missouri’s Drew White ran a big personal best time of 29:41 to defeat Trevor Capra (South Dakota) by two seconds. Oregon State University High Performance Invite 800 Colorado’s Nick Harris secured the win and emerged as the top collegiate with a time of 1:49. 1500 It was an excellent battle between division two star David Ribich (Western Oregon) and Joe Klecker (Colorado). The WO junior got the best of Klecker in an excellent time of 3:41.45 (D2 NCAA #1) while Klecker was less than a stride behind in a time of 3:41.69 (NCAA #15). Once again, Ribich has impressed us with a great time. He’s my favorite to win the division two title, but more because of his consistency and less because of his time. As for Klecker, this is a solid performance from him, but I’m not too surprised. He’s fit enough to run a time like this. #gzatlin #ncaa #weekendreview #pennrelays

  • Predictions & Previews: Payton Jordan

    800 I was a bit surprised to see that the entries of this meet contained very few collegiate athlete. In fact, there are only three collegiate athletes in this race (four if you count Abraham Alvarado who is running unattached). This trio includes Eugene Hamilton (III), Collins Kibet (Arizona), and Ben Saarel (Colorado). While I do believe in Saarel’s fitness, this is big step-down in distance for him and I’m not sure if he breaks 1:50. As for Kibet, he is super experienced and will understand how to navigate this elite field. That said, the Arizona senior struggled during indoors and has yet to race this outdoor season. Such a late start to his season leaves me believing that there was an injury that delayed the start to his season. That, of course, is just speculation. The collegiate with the most upside is Eugene Hamilton. The Cal junior had an underwhelming start to his season with a time of 1:51, but with a personal best of 1:47 you know this guy can run faster. COLLEGIATE PREDICTIONS 1. Eugene Hamilton (Cal)- 1:48 2. Ben Saarel (Colorado)- 1:50 3. Collins Kibet (Arizona)- 1:51 1500 Much like the 800, there is an abundance of pro’s and only a few collegiates. However, the collegiates that are entered are some of the best in the NCAA. Adam Palamar (Syracuse) and Kasey Knevelbaard (Southern Utah) will headline the field heading into this weekend. Palamar is coming off of an indoor season where he was All-American in the mile. Knevelbaard is looking to continue his breakout track season and hopefully improve upon his 3:41 from the Stanford Invite. Chase Horrocks (BYU) and Carlos Villarreal (Arizona) are two very respected milers who deserve some attention. Horrocks has been has been posting some great times as of late and has grabbed wins for the past two seasons. The BYU senior currently holds a PR of 3:41 which is currently 14th in the NCAA standings. COLLEGIATE PREDICTIONS 1. Kasey Knevelbaard (Southern Utah)- 3:40 2. Chase Horrocks (BYU)- 3:41 3. Adam Palamar (Syracuse)- 3:42 4. Carlos Villarreal (Arizona)- 3:46 3000 Steeple Could this FINALLY be the weekend where we see a collegiate go under 8:40 for the steeplechase? My answer is yes. A slew of elite pro athletes matched with some of the NCAA’s best will almost definitely lead to some big-time performances. The current NCAA steeplechase leader, Troy Reeder (Furman), is a candidate to dip into the 8:30’s after running 8:40 at the Stanford Invite last month. However, he will have to battle with Louisville’s Edwin Kibichiy who holds a personal best of 8:30 in this event. Kibichiy ran 8:51 a few weekends ago at the Louisville Classic (where he won) and will look to build on that time. Others like Scott Carpenter and Darren Fahy (Georgetown), Troy Fraley (Gonzaga), and Daniel Carney (BYU) are all excellent steeplechasers in their own right. I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of these guy’s dip under the 8:40 mark as well. Georgetown typically produces fast steeplechasers, Fraley has already shown that he can be competitive in this event after running 8:45 earlier in the season, and Daniel Carney is an up-and-coming sophomore that is ready for a breakout performance. I’m not expecting any “poor” performances from this group. COLLEGIATE PREDICTIONS 1. Edwin Kibichiy (Louisville)- 8:33 2. Troy Reeder (Furman)- 8:36 3. Troy Fraley (Gonzaga)- 8:38 4. Daniel Carney (BYU)- 8:41 5. Scott Carpenter (Georgetown)- 8:42 6. Darren Fahy (Georgetown)- 8:46 5000 Could this be the meet where Eddy Ches grabs another collegiate record? 13:08 is certainly within striking range for the legendary Oregon Duck, but it will certainly not be easy. All eyes will be on the King to see if he can run faster than the time set by Henry Rono 39 years ago. Another important entry is Justyn Knight (Syracuse) who has done very well against professionals in big-time meets. Think back to the time he out-kicked Galen Rupp en route to a 13:26 or was able fend off Wheating and Kidder this past indoor season at Washington. Knight has the incredible ability to change gears when needed and that should play to his advantage in a race that will surely have many lead changes. I am big believer in what the Southern Utah program is doing with their athletes. After soloing a 13:39 at the Stanford Invite, Mike Tate has become one of the most underrated athletes in the NCAA. Give this man a fast field to work with and I like to think he can improve upon that time. Erik Peterson (Butler) and Morgan McDonald (Wisconsin) are two names we should not ignore. Peterson’s 28:11 10k indicates that he has the endurance to hang with this field while McDonald has already proven to be one of the best distance runners in the NCAA. Amon Terer (Campbell) and Clayton Young (BYU) are two others to keep an eye on. Their ability to cope with and adjust to such an elite field of professionals will be the main factor in their pursuit to break the 13:40 barrier. Rounding out this impressive group will be BYU’s Rory Linkletter and Jonathan Harper. Both are accomplished runners who have run at a high level before. Don’t be surprised if either of these two rip open a fast personal best. COLLEGIATE PREDICTIONS 1. Edward Cheserek (Oregon)- 13:09 2. Justyn Knight (Syracuse)- 13:27 3. Morgan McDonald (Wisconsin)- 13:29 4. Erik Peterson (Butler)- 13:32 5. Mike Tate (Southern Utah)- 13:33 6. Amon Terer (Campbell)- 13:39 7. Clayton Young (BYU)- 13:42 8. Rory Linkletter (BYU)- 13:47 9. Jonathan Harper (BYU)- 13:51 10,000 In a field of professionals, Marc Scott stands out as the only collegiate entered. The Tulsa senior will look to show that he can hang with the best of the best (and I believe he can). No, I don’t think he’ll win, but I think a top five finish is very reasonable despite the prestige of the other entries. Scott can run from the front and isn’t able to stick with a fast pace. I think all of this will bode well for him and I see him ripping off the NCAA’s first sub-28 minute time of the year. COLLEGIATE PREDICTION > Marc Scott (Tulsa)- 27:57 #paytonjordan #cheserek #ncaa #preview #predictions #gzatlin

  • Digits: Mid-Season Conference Report

    We have reached the unofficial half-way point of the outdoor track season (maybe slightly past it) and there is a lot to analyze. Let’s take a look at the top 20 times in each distance event and see what we can take away from it. Note: The AVG Time and AVG Rank sections for each conference involve small sample sizes and do not hold statistical significance. These averages are simply side notes. Notation: - Left column: Current Ranking in the NCAA. - Right column: Current Time in the NCAA. - AVG TIME: Average time in the respected conference. - AVG RANK: Average rank of athletes in the top 20 in their respective conferences. - (#): Level of respected averages in comparison to other conference averages. - “Single Representation”: Conferences with only one athlete in the top 20. Take a look at the numbers and see what takeaways you can pull from this set of data. TAKEAWAYS: - The SEC currently has a total of six individuals in the top 20. No other athletic conference has more than four individuals in the top 20 of the NCAA 800. This statistic continues to prove the assertion that sprinters and mid-distance runners can thrive in the southern climate compared to long-distance runners. - Conference USA is dominated by Middle Tennessee State and UTEP. However, there is some minor controversy in regards to their rosters being made up almost entirely of Kenyan athletes. But that is a debate for another day. - The PAC 12 is revered as one of the best conferences in the nation, but they do not have a single representative in the top 20 of the 800. TAKEAWAYS: - Surprisingly, the ACC has only one representative in the top 20 of the 1500 (Justyn Knight). Other mid-distance stars like Neil Gourley (VT), Henry Wynne (UVA), and Adam Palamar (Syracuse) are outside of the top 20 despite holding the status of All-American in the mile. TAKEAWAYS: - The longer the distance gets, the more variability we begin to see. 12 conferences are represented in the steeplechase, 10 conferences in the 5k, and 13 in the 10k. -As I have mentioned before, not a single athlete has broken the 8:40 barrier yet this season. For perspective, we had nine athletes break the 8:40 barrier last year. TAKEAWAYS: - The PAC 12 has a whopping total of seven representatives for the 5k. There is no other event with that many representatives in the top 20 from the same conference. In addition to those seven, we have yet to see guys like Cheserek, Saarel, or McGorty run the 5k this season. TAKEAWAYS: - Why is it that the PAC 12 has seven representatives in the 5k, but only two in the 10k? I would expect those totals to be much closer. - The BIG 10, PAC 12, and ACC have typically been considered the best conferences in the Power Five for distance running. However, only the SEC and BIG 12 have a top 20 representative in every distance event. The other three do not. #gzatlin #digits #ncaa #analysis

  • The Weekend Review (4/23/17)

    Virginia Challenge 800 What. A. Race. In what may have been the best race of the weekend, we saw Isaiah Harris and Andres Arroyo battle to two sub-1:46 times. Harris was able to hold off Arroyo and earn the win in a time of 1:45.12 while Arroyo held on to finish runner-up in a time of 1:45.74. We all knew Harris was in 1:45 shape, but for Arroyo to get a personal best shows that this season may be different than all of the other ones… The next two spots went to the Virginia Tech duo of Drew Piazza and Patrick Joseph who ran solid times of 1:46 to keep themselves in the national title conversation. Penn State frosh Dom Perretta was a pleasant surprise in 5th place as he barely edged Robert Heppenstall 1:47.29 to 1:47.30. It’s a great race for the young Nittany Lion who is looking to be yet another national threat for Penn State in the future. On the flipside, this is the first sub-par race Heppenstall has had in a very long time. I expected a 1:46 out of him but he faltered a bit behind in this race. Still, the future is bright for the Wake Forest sophomore and I’m sure he will rebound when the post-season rolls around. 1500 As expected, Justyn Knight locked down the win this past weekend over a very strong field. The time was a respectable 3:42.11. However, his win was not easy. Michigan State sophomore Justine Kiprotich was just behind our winner with a time of 3:42.36. This is the first true breakout race for Kiprotich who has run fast times and earned wins, but has never had a time as legit as this. Potential NCAA qualifier? Add him to the list… Veterans like Wynne, Randon, and Gourley all finished with times of 3:42 to round out the top five. Solid runs for this trio, but times like that are expected at their level. Not the best race for Ryan Adams as he runs a 3:44, but it looks as though this race was relatively tactical with the entire top five all within a second of each other. There is a good chance that a big final kick was too much for Adams to finish with that top group. 3000 Steeple Welcome to the title conversation, Jamaine Coleman! The Eastern Kentucky junior completely separated himself from the field and won the race with a time of 8:42. Coleman absolutely dominated as no other individual dipped under 8:50. Other notable performances included Syracuse freshman Aidan Tooker running a solid 8:54 in his steeplechase debut. But for every good performance there is typically a poor one. Iona’s Johannes Motschmann struggled in his second steeplechase of the season by running a time of 9:00. I picked Johannes for the win so this was certainly a surprise in my mind. 5000 While Johannes Motschmann may have struggled in his event, teammate Chartt Miller made up for it with a big-time win and a time of 13:49.60 to put him at an NCAA #21 overall. However, that win was not easy as Oakland’s Bryce Stroede finished runner-up in a time of 13:49.90. This has been a heck of a breakout season for Stroede who now has three personal bests and two school records in the past two months of competition. He has been on a roll this season and I’m only looking forward to seeing more performances from him. ACC rivals Zach Herriot (Virginia) and Peter Seufer (Virginia Tech) were the next two finishers, each running times of 13:53. In total, nine individuals broke the 14-minute barrier. However, there were some big-name distance runners that failed to have much of an impact in this race. Sherod Hardt (Michigan State), Gilbert Kirui (Iona), and Colin Bennie (Syracuse) failed to break 14 minutes and all three placed outside of the top 10. 10,000 Sid Vaughn (Georgia) continues to roll with a nice win and time of 29:08. Vaughn is starting to establish himself as one of the more consistent long distance runners around the nation. A win like this could do wonders for his confidence in the post-season. The next collegiate to cross the line was Navy’s Lucas Stalnaker in a time of 29:11. Andrew Tario (Iona), Kevin Pulliam (Notre Dame), and Bryan Kamau (Georgia) took the next three spots behind Stalnaker with times of 29:49, 29:50, and 29:51 respectively. War Eagle Invite 800 Alabama alum Alex Amankwah took the win and guided Ryan Manahan (Ole Miss) to a very strong time of 1:46.92! That time currently ties Manahan with teammate Craig Engels for the 9th spot in the NCAA. Sampson Laari (MTSU) was runner-up in this race with a time of 1:47.34. 1500 What can Eliud Rutto (MTSU) not do? The MTSU senior seemed unfazed by his move up in distance and recorded an outstanding time of 3:41 (NCAA #11) to get the win. Rutto was able to lead teammate Geoffry Cheruiyot to an excellent time of 3:42 (NCAA #25) which is a massive six second personal best for the MTSU junior. Auburn’s Wesley Curles was the third collegiate finisher in a time of 3:44. 5000 Have a day Jacob Choge! The MTSU freshman pulled off a major upset this past weekend by defeating Alabama’s Alfred Chelanga 13:39 to 13:53. Not only is this a huge win for Choge, but it’s also the 7th fastest time in the nation. This race only goes to show that Choge’s 28:42 10k at Mnt. SAC last weekend was no fluke and that this kid is for real. LSU Alumni Gold Invite 800 Wow! What a race we had here between LSU’s Blair Henderson and the Clemson 800 trio. Henderson pulled off the win in a respectable time of 1:47.39, but he led Clemson’s Mpho Makofane and John Lewis to a pair of 1:47’s as well. Clemson frosh Terrell Jackson was super close to the sub 1:48 mark with a time of 1:48.01. All three times were personal bests for the men in orange. Duke Invite 800 Ryan Hastings (Appalachian State) took the win in a time of 1:48.02 to defeat Nike pro Cory Leslie and ECU junior Stefano Migliorati (each ran times of 1:48). Michael Johnson Invite 800 Texas A&M freshman Devin Dixon got the win over Baylor’s Zacharias Curran, 1:48.27 to 1:48.60. Larry Ellis Invite 800 Chris Hatler (Penn) dropped down in distance, but finished as the top collegiate in this event with a time of 1:48.88. 1500 In one of the more underrated races of the weekend, we saw Princeton’s William Paulson pull off a huge upset victory over Adidas-sponsored athlete Drew Hunter, 3:42.23 to 3:42.89. Adam Palamar (Syracuse) and Julian Oakley (Providence) each ran times of 3:43 low to take the next two spots. Before we move on, let’s emphasize the importance of this win for Paulson. Not only did he defeat one of the most exciting young talents in the nation, he also defeated two All-Americans in their own event! Paulson is currently 19th in the NCAA 1500 standings. John Jacobs Invite 3000 Steeple Dylan Blankenbaker (Oklahoma) solos an 8:49 to get the win by roughly 22 seconds. John McDonnell Invite 800 Eric Brown (Wisconsin) earned his second straight win of the season with a time of 1:48 to get a surprise upset over Arkansas’ Carlton Orange. I’m a bit concerned about Orange at the moment as he has yet to run under 1:48 so far this season. As a freshman, the Arkansas Razorback ran 1:46 and was an All-American during indoors. 1500 Jack Bruce (Arkansas) continues his huge season with a personal best of 3:41 to defeat German Fernandez and put another win on his resume. Bruce is at another level and looks to be a legit All-American threat by the time the post-season rolls around. After Bruce and Fernandez came Wisconsin’s Carl Hirsch and Oliver Hoare. The Badger duo ran solid times of 3:43 to show that this program can compete in more than the longer distances. Stanford Cardinal Classic 800: REGULAR Minnesota took the top three spots with Shane Streich and Derek Wiebke running 1:48.83 and 1:49.91. 800: INVITE Dillon Maggard and Colby Wilson has kept Utah State at the top of the results and it looks like Clay Lambourne will continue to do the same after defeating Mitch Hechsel (Minnesota) and Myles Marshall (Harvard). The entire top three ran 1:47 which is a personal best time for all three of these finishers. Once again, Jake Burton (Florida State) struggled after finishing 5th overall with a time of 1:50. The 1:47 man and previous national qualifier has been having a rough season after a hamstring injury hampered his ability to train. 1500: INVITE All eyes were on the Virginia Challenge to produce some fast 1500’s, but the best results in this event came from Stanford as seven individuals ran under 3:44. Saarel led the way with an impressive time of 3:40, but was closely followed by Craig Nowak (Oklahoma State) and Texas sophomore Alex Rogers. Both athletes were also at 3:40. Saarel and Nowak are established milers, but Rogers is starting to become one of the most exciting young names that the nation has to offer. We saw Rogers qualify for nationals in the 1500 last year, but he was not running the times he is now. In just this season, Rogers has run three personal bests of 1:48, 3:40, and 8:48 (steeplechase). Dillon Maggard (Utah State) and Andy Trouard (NAU-UNAT) ran 3:42 to round out the top five while Dan Curts (Iowa State) and Michael Hall (Florida State) ran the next best times in 3:43. 5000: REGULAR There were a lot of questions about what had become of NAU freshman Blaise Ferro and this weekend answered those questions. Ferro was the top finisher in this race with a time of 14:09 while Trent Brendel (Cal) was 14:12. 5000: INVITE Welcome back Grant Fisher! After a long indoor season without seeing the young Stanford star, Fisher has now earned his second win in two weeks with a huge NCAA #3 time of 13:37. Not only did Fisher run fast and earn a win, but he defeated Klecker, Abdi, Dressel, Brandt, Baxter, and many more (in that order). The win over Klecker and Dressel certainly says something about Fisher’s fitness as those two were at the top of their game this past indoor season. The next few finishers were… -Joe Klecker (Colorado): 13:42 -Hassan Abdi (Oklahoma State): 13:43 -John Dressel (Colorado): 13:44 -Robert Brandt (California): 13:45 -Zach Perrin (Colorado): 13:46 -Matthew Baxter (NAU): 13:46 In all honesty, I’m not that surprised by the times this group was able to run. Most of these guys are established veterans who have proven that they can run fast and compete with the best. #ncaa #gzatlin #weekendreview #VirginiaChallenge

  • Predictions & Previews: Virginia Challenge

    2017 VIRGINIA CHALLENGE ENTRIES 800 Florida Relays part two? It sure looks that way when you see all of the names entered in this event. Drew Piazza and Isaiah Harris will headline the field as Piazza looks to build on his runner-up finish at indoor nationals. On the flip side, Harris is coming off of a huge 1:45 Florida Relays win and is currently number one in the nation. Both men have an equally good chance of taking home the win. You might as well flip a coin to predict the winner. Andres Arroyo will thrive in this field as he is typically able hold his own among the elites of the half-mile. The same goes for Robert Heppenstall who will most likely run another really solid time, but go unnoticed in a field crowded with talent. Patrick Joseph is a difficult prediction for me. He ran 1:46 indoors and was the ACC champion in this event. Unfortunately, a nasty fall in the prelims at indoor nationals kept him out of the All-American conversation. I like to think that he’s hungry for a rebound race, but I’m not sure if he still has that magic we saw at ACC’s. Penn State frosh Dom Perretta will most likely battle Hampton, Schnulle, and Sauer for the next few spots. I see Sauer winning his heat and putting himself in the top eight for this event overall. 1. Drew Piazza (Virginia Tech) 2. Isaiah Harris (Penn State) 3. Andres Arroyo (Florida) 4. Robert Heppenstall (Wake Forest) 5. Patrick Joseph (Virginia Tech) 6. Domenic Perretta (Penn State) 7. Jeramey Hampton (Georgia) 8. Alek Sauer (Columbia) 1500 Finally! Justyn Knight is set to make his season debut with a 1500. Knight was runner-up in this event at the same meet last year and was the champion during his freshman year (where he lost one of his spikes halfway through the race). Knight should get the win, but it certainly wont be easy as he’ll have to face three elite milers in James Randon (3:58, Outdoor All-American), Neil Gourley (3:41, Indoor All-American), and Henry Wynne (2016 Indoor NCAA Mile Champ). Wynne is coming off an indoor season where he struggled and failed to make nationals. This race will be a defining moment in Wynne’s career as he looks like to position himself as an NCAA contender for the 2017 season. After the top four, I’m predicting that we will see some of our young talent step up and make some noise. I am a big fan of Florida’s Jack Guyton and he was one of the names to watch in our Under The Radar Underclassmen article. Meanwhile, Ryan Adams is a legitimate threat in this race and is someone who has run 3:42 earlier this season. Most would have him higher, but there’s simply just not enough room at the top for him in my opinion. Hopefully he proves me wrong. Kiprotch and Napolitano are consistent winners and neither have had a bad race so far this season. They are both great tactical racers and should be fit enough to finish in the top eight against this loaded field. 1. Justyn Knight (Syracuse) 2. James Randon (Yale) 3. Neil Gourley (Virginia Tech) 4. Henry Wynne (Virginia) 5. Jack Guyton (Florida) 6. Ryan Adams (Furman) 7. Justine Kiprotich (Michigan State) 8. Rob Napolitano (Columbia) 3000 Steeple We have yet to see a steeplechaser run under 8:40 this season and I’m not sure this will be the race for it either. Motschmann will be the favorite entering this race, but he will not be let off the hook easily. Jaskowak had himself an incredibly underrated indoor season and Aidan Tooker could be the next great collegiate steeplechaser. Former Virginia Cavalier and current Syracuse Orangeman Adam Visokay is an accomplished and experienced senior who owns a personal best of 8:43 in this event, but that was run during the outdoor season of his sophomore year. I expect him to hold his own in this race, but I’m not expecting a personal best. That said, wouldn’t it be cool if Visokay got the win on Virginia’s track after he left there to go to Syracuse? Others like Myjer and Benoit will look to flex their veteran status while Nohilly and Novak will look to show that young guys can succeed in this difficult event. 1. Johannes Motschmann (Iona) 2. Daniel Jaskowak (Virginia Tech) 3. Aidan Tooker (Syracuse) 4. Adam Visokay (Virginia) 5. Aubrey Myjer (Columbia) 6. Eion Nohilly (Georgetown) 7. Max Benoit (Michigan State) 8. Matthew Novak (Virginia) 5000 The clear favorite in this field is George Parsons who is one of the more underrated individuals in the distance events. After running a big personal bests of 3:44 and 28:43, Parsons is arguably in the best shape of his collegiate career and I don’t see a scenario where he loses. Philo Germano is coming off of a long indoor season of being injured. Watch for him to have a big rebound race. As for teammate Colin Bennie, he is a strong runner but doesn’t seem to be at the point of fitness we saw during his sophomore year. Just like Parsons, Kirui is coming off of a sub-29 minute 10k at Stanford and is set to unleash a strong 5k performance. Meanwhile, Erik Rotich had the best season debut of his career with a time of 14:08 at Raleigh Relays. The last few mentions should go to the Virginia men who had an absolute killer showing at the Raleigh Relays in the 5k and 10k. I’m also a big fan of Brent Demarest who is poised to be the face of the UVA program for the next few years. 1. George Parsons (NC State) 2. Philo Germano (Syracuse) 3. Brent Demarest (Virginia) 4. Gilbert Kirui (Iona) 5. Colin Bennie (Syracuse) 6. Thomas Madden (Virginia) 7. Erik Rotich (Eastern Kentucky) 8. Lachlan Cook (Virginia) 10,000 Admittedly, this field isn’t too exciting, but there is some underrated talent that could breakout and catch some attention. The Georgia duo has been looking very strong as of late with Kamau earning wins in the 1500/mile while Vaughn is coming off two personal bests in the 1500 and 5000. If they work together, I think they could definitely go 1-2. Alex Corbett has started to find his groove at Virginia and his teammates have been strong in the longer distances. He may be young, but I see him fighting for the Georgia men for the win. Stalnaker and Stroede may not come from a Power Five conference or train with a powerhouse distance program, but they’ve been consistent and very solid over the past few seasons. The last few spots are a toss up as there are so many other guys who could step and finish within the top eight. 1. Sid Vaughn (Georgia) 2. Bryan Kamau (Georgia) 3. Alex Corbett (Virginia) 4. Lucas Stalnaker (Navy) 5. Bryce Stroede (Oakland) 6. Ari Klau (Iona) 7. Daniel Rau (Virginia Tech) 8. Harry Earl (Eastern Kentucky) #ncaa #gzatlin #predictions #preview #VirginiaChallenge

  • Digits: Josh Kerr Isn't The Favorite To Win The 1500

    This past weekend, we saw Josh Kerr run one of the fastest 1500’s ever. His 3:35.99 was good enough to defeat some of the best athletes the nation has to offer. The indoor mile champion has now validated his national title win over Ches and will enter the National Championships in June with a target on his back. At the moment, he is the heavy favorite to win the 1500 national title...right? Kerr may own the 6th fastest NCAA 1500 ever, but based on the past few years of competition, we shouldn’t claim him as the NCAA champion just yet. Let’s take a look at the 10 fastest NCAA 1500 runners of All-Time. Out of the names you see above, four of them didn’t even win the national championship the year they ran a top 10 time. Essentially, there’s a 44% chance Kerr could fail to win the national title. Sure, that’s a bit of a stretch. The sample size we're working with is only nine athletes which is rather small from a statistics point of view. That said, check out the five names highlighted in yellow. Of those five names, four of them ran a top 10 at the actual NCAA championships. If Josh Kerr were to win the NCAA title in June, he would join Falcon as the only two athletes to run a top 10 time AND win the 1500 national title in two separate meets. Simply put, it would be very rare if Josh Kerr won the 1500 national title this year in a time slower than his 3:35.99. Still not sold? Let’s take a look at the past seven seasons of 1500's at the NCAA championships… Of the past eight 1500 title winners, six of them didn’t even have the fastest time in the NCAA! Ironically, the two guys who did win the national title that year aren’t among the top ten 1500 runners of all time… To make things even more interesting, in the 95-year history of the outdoor NCAA 1500/mile, only two freshmen (including redshirts) have ever won the national title in this event. Those two freshmen were Leo Manzano (2005) and German Fernandez (2009). Could things change? Absolutely. Cheserek seems to be flirting with the idea that he could run the 1500 record later this season. If he were to accomplish that goal, then the focus of this article would quite obviously shift to from Kerr to Eddy Ches. *Lawi Lalang did not run the 1500 at the 2013 National Championships #joshkerr #gzatlin #ncaa #digits

  • Questions We Still Need Answered

    It was an exciting weekend of action with many big-time performances all over the country. Invites like Bryan Clay and Mnt. SAC headlined the weekend and gave us a lot to review and analyze. Yet, despite so many notable and telling performances, there are still questions that we as fans need answered. Let’s take a look at a few of those questions… Why did Cheserek not run at Bryan Clay? Could he have beaten Kerr? There was plenty of skepticism about the validity of Kerr’s indoor national title over Cheserek as most spectators and fans assumed that Kerr simply had a better kick and was lucky the race got tactical. Of course, those assumptions were put to rest this past weekend as Kerr ripped open a 3:35 to show the doubters and skeptics that he was just as fit as anyone in the NCAA. Nonetheless, there is still plenty of curiosity regarding how fast the race could’ve been had Cheserek competed. Could Ches and/or Kerr have hit the NCAA record? Who would’ve won in all-out effort? Those questions remain unclear when you consider how fast Kerr just ran. But the biggest question remaining for me is why did the Oregon coaches decide not to run Cheserek this past weekend? Is there an injury we don’t know about? Did they not think he could beat Kerr? Did they simply not want to race him and leave people like me asking these ridiculous questions? I like to think all of those are possibilities. Can we call Haney’s 3:42 a comeback? After failing to become an All-American at last year’s outdoor championships, Haney’s cross country season became virtually nonexistent as he raced in two small invitationals and then never raced again for the entire fall season. Come indoors and things still weren’t looking great for Haney who recorded modest times of 4:09 and 8:12. He had three “No Time” results throughout the regular season, but was able to help his Oregon teammates place 4th in the DMR at nationals. The transition to the spring season was intended to be better, but as fate would have it, Haney tripped in the final lap of the 1500 at Stanford and had to settle for yet another “No Time” result. Now, after nearly a year of struggling results, the Oregon junior finally had a solid performance and ran a strong time of 3:42 at Bryan Clay. But does this one race mean that he’s officially “back”? Call me a pessimist, but I’m not completely sold on one race being the sole indicator of someone’s consistency and momentum as we head into the later portion of the season. I’d like to see Haney improve on that 3:42 and get closer to his PR of 3:40. A higher finish would help his case as well. Regardless of what he does in the coming weeks, I think we can all agree that this race is a huge positive for Haney and Oregon. In a Flotrack interview, Engels explains that he’d like to pursue the 1500 at NCAA’s. Is that the right choice? This past indoor season, a broken collarbone delayed the start of Engels’ competition and it eventually led to him barely getting into nationals and struggling in his 800 preliminary (although he was on the winning DMR). Fast forward to now and Engels is on fire after running 1:46 at Florida Relays and then coming back to run 3:37 this past weekend at Bryan Clay. With two quick times so far this season, it begs the question of which event he should pursue at NCAA’s. Most would be quick to say that his 3:37 puts him in the national championship conversation and I would agree with that. He’s willing to take out the pace hard (as evident by his performance at Bryan Clay) and has the speed to kick in a tactical race. Still, we have to consider that Engels rarely runs the 1500 and is much more experienced in the 800. Qualifying for last year's NCAA 1500 came with multiple surprises proving that a lot can happen in multiple rounds of the 1500. The 800, at least for the past few years, has been pretty consistent in regards to the talent it sends to nationals. Is there a favorite to win the steeplechase at nationals? And why has no one broken 8:40 yet? Last year, everyone saw and assumed Mason Ferlic would be the NCAA steeplechase champion…and they were right. He was simply that dominant. But now we are in a state of uncertainty when it comes to who the favorite may be for the NCAA title. So far this season, no one has yet to truly separate themselves from the rest of the NCAA. MJ Erb is a personal favorite of mine. He impressed me during this past indoor season and has proven to be one of the more experienced guys in the NCAA. Then there is Furman’s Troy Reeder who unleashed a time of 8:40 at the Stanford Invite and has held the number one spot in the NCAA since then. Others like Edwin Kibichiy, Bailey Roth, and Jakob Abrahamsen are all potential candidates to take the title, but have yet to display anything that really sets them apart from other steeplechasers in the NCAA. But how does this season stack up to other seasons in the steeple? According to TFRRS, in the last eight years, only 2011 did not have a sub 8:40 steeplechaser by this point in the season. Is it a slow year for the steeplechase in 2017? For the front-runners it apparently is. Could Vincent Kiprop transfer after this season? At Mnt. SAC, we saw division two star Vincent Kiprop (Missouri Southern) crush the 10k field and bring home the win in a time of 28:19. The next closest time in the current division two NCAA standings comes from James Ngandu (Tiffin) at 29:50. It seems pretty clear that Kiprop is the favorite to win another national title…as a sophomore. With so much potential and dominance at such an early age, it’s not crazy to think that he could transfer to a division one program for his last two years of eligibility. We’ve seen guys like Alfred Chelanga and Dylan Lafond do well at the division one level and it would make a lot of sense if that’s the route Kiprop decided to take. But where would he go? If I had to guess, it would be Arkansas or Alabama. Both are competitive southern programs that would be relatively close to where he is now. With both programs losing some of their best seniors, there would be plenty of room (and scholarship money) for another talented distance star in their program. Keep in mind that this is far from fact. Only a thought/prediction for the future. Should we be concerned about Jonah Koech? During his freshman year at UTEP, Jonah Koech was a star who continually improved and beat some of the most talented runners in the nation. It seemed as though he would be the face of UTEP distance running for years to come. Unfortunately, his sophomore year has not been as exciting. In cross country, he had a terrible day at nationals finishing 122nd overall. During indoors, he failed to make the NCAA mile final and eventually got burned on the 1200 leg of UTEP’s DMR (where they finished second to last). This spring season isn’t looking much better after running a 4:03 for 6th place at the Texas Relays and then barely breaking 1:50 (1:49.99) this past weekend at Jim Busch. And for those who argue that time isn’t as important as wins, I would be quick to point out that Jonah Koech secured a total of nine individual wins during all three seasons of his freshman year. With five(ish) weeks left to go in his sophomore year, Koech only has two. He could run and win one event per week for the rest of the season and STILL not have as many as he did last year. The clock is ticking for Koech to run a faster time and secure his spot at regionals. Will he do it? Yes, I think so. But can he make it to nationals and be competitive? That’s a question I wouldn’t be too thrilled about answering… #questions #ncaa #gzatlin #cheserek #bryanclay #mntsac

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