Gavin Struve
Sep 6, 20236 min
Written by Gavin Struve, edits and additional commentary by Garrett Zatlin
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
Well-known as an elite academic institution, Johns Hopkins hopes to continue their ascendance back to the elite status of the Division Three cross country ranks this fall.
In the eyes of The Stride Report, there’s ample reason to believe that they could be a top-10 team at the NCAA XC Championships for the first time since 2019. After all, the Blue Jays’ 2023 roster appears fortified by retention and continuity, particularly at the top of their lineup.
And fortunately for this Baltimore-based team, they don’t have to improve much to live up to this ranking. Johns Hopkins very nearly finished in the top-10 last year. In fact, it appears more likely than not that they do so this November, at least on paper.
The Blue Jays began their fall 2022 campaign at the Baltimore Metro Meet, a race that was very much a tune-up from the competition they faced to the race distance (5k). Sure enough, they dominated, taking the top-16 spots in the 11-team meet.
From there, Johns Hopkins ramped up their competition, taking to the MSU Spartan Invitational where they faced a number of Division One and Division Two teams.
With veteran Matthew Kleiman and rookie Emmanuel Leblond slipping into the top-20, the Blue Jays were competitive with other teams’ top runners, boasting surprisingly great low-stick scoring.
Not only that, but their depth proved to be respectable as Gavin McElhennon placed 38th while Rowan Cassidy and Daniel Chen closed out the team's scoring with 51st and 64th place finishes, respectively. The Blue Jays had two other runners among the top-71 spots for good measure.
That collective effort was good enough to land the Blue Jays at 6th in the team standings ahead of eventual podiums squads like SUNY Geneseo and John Carroll. They were also just three points behind fellow historical Division Three powerhouse, North Central. The top-four spots were all held down by Division One and Two programs.
All things considered, it was a strong early showing for the Blue Jay men and it had to be a confidence-booster moving forth. They had flexed a balanced lineup and they defeated teams that were viewed to be among the best in the nation.
From there, Coach Bobby Van Allen continued to throw his men into high-level meets, giving them experience in deep fields even if they were out of their depth at the time.
The Blue Jays finished 26th at the Paul Short Run "Gold" race and didn’t have any individuals in the top-100, although Kleiman and McElhennon were close. Then came the Panorama Farms XC Invitational. Johns Hopkins finished 14th in a field composed of them and 16 Division One squads.
While we wanted to analyze those regular season results, we couldn't confidently pull any major takeaways from those D1-heavy fields. We simply weren't able to compare the Blue Jays against other top D3 programs.
When the time finally came to return to Division Three competition at the Centennial Conference XC Championships in late October, Johns Hopkins appeared to benefit from their preceding trials.
The Blue Jays beat rival Haverford by just a handful of points (and later went on to do the same at the national meet) for the conference title. Kleiman took the individual silver medal, McElhennon snagged bronze and Leblond joined them in the top-five. It was a promising display of scoring potency.
With Chen and Sean Enright closing out the scoring in 11th and 12th place, respectively, the Johns Hopkins men did just enough to win the conference title. Four other Blue Jays finished in the top-20 as well.
After finishing runner-up at the Mid-Atlantic Region XC Championships, Johns Hopkins advanced to the national stage where they fared quite well. Despite Kleiman having a major “off" day and slipping to 194th place, the Blue Jays mostly lived up to expectations.
Leblond and McElhennon provided a massive scoring tandem in 25th and 26th, validating their All-American potential that they had flashed earlier in the year. The depth behind them, while certainly not great, was not damaging enough to sink the team score. Jonas Larson did, however, emerge with a pleasantly surprising 103rd place finish to take the third scoring spot.
When all was said and done, the Blue Jays finished 12th in the team standings.
While acknowledging the above statement about the collective strength of Johns Hopkins’ returners, we should disclose that they will be without two valuable contributors. Daniel Chen, a complementary scorer last year, is gone. More notably, Matthew Kleiman departs after serving as the team’s top scorer in several instances.
While he struggled at the national meet last fall, Kleiman’s departure is a major blow. Save for that outlier performance, he was a known quantity. The former Blue Jay was a lead scorer throughout the regular season and at the 2021 national meet. Plus, he was an All-American on the track!
But Kleiman's aforementioned underwhelming performance on the biggest stage already showed what the Blue Jays are capable of without his scoring contributions. And regardless of the returning personnel surrounding them, McElhennon and Leblond were always going to be the most valuable men on this roster.
That’s just amplified now without another clear lead scorer.
Leblond had an outstanding rookie season which culminated with his best performance at the most important time. While his 26th place result at the NCAA XC Championships may have come as a bit of a surprise for the rookie, he backed that up with an appearance at the NCAA Indoor Championships where he placed 11th over 5000 meters.
Now, with a year of experience under his belt, Leblond should be the premier low-stick for a top-10 program, and he’s already got the credentials for it. That’s why we have him at TSR #15 in our preseason individual top-20 rankings.
Of course, if Leblond isn’t the Blue Jays’ bellwether, then it’ll be McElhennon. Or perhaps it could be both. The latter, a senior, was a more consistent fixture at the front of the lineup last fall which should be expected for a more experienced runner.
Either way, McElhennon feels like a safe pick for another All-American honor. Perhaps he can even finish as a top-half All-American as we have him in that range at TSR #20 preseason.
That above duo poses as a lethal one-two punch that few teams, even in this range of our rankings, can match. Johns Hopkins was as solid as they were mostly because of their up-front firepower at the national meet last year. But their depth wasn’t necessarily a weakness despite what the NCAA XC Championship results showed.
Jonas Larson finished just outside the top-100 at the 2022 NCAA XC Championships and should have higher expectations now that he’s in his senior season. He feels like a strong third scorer or at least a complementary middle-lineup piece.
Among other returners from last year’s varsity group, Sean Enright was the fifth scorer on the national stage and his regular season results suggested that he could have been a bit better than his 190th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships.
That gives the Blue Jays four returning pieces to craft this year’s lineup, but in our eyes, they’re not devoid of options beyond that.
Charlie Teeter was far from elite last fall, but he did run 14:28 (5k) on the oval earlier this calendar year and was a varsity runner throughout 2021. Virtually the same words could be said for Thomas Li, who ran 14:29 (5k) in recent months.
However, our bet for the final scorer is Rowan Cassidy who was solid as a freshman last fall. Bryce Thalheimer also adds further depth and experience. And given the Blue Jays’ success with freshmen, it’s hardly out of line to think that Kenny Wanlass could make an instant impact in year one after running 9:01 (3200) and 14:51 (5k) as a high school standout.
This is all to say that the Blue Jays have enough options to complement their returning stars and craft a highly functional lineup. That’s to be expected from an established program vying for a top-10 spot nationally over the coming spots, but it’s still reassuring to know.
With their two low-stick studs, Leblond and McElhennon, returning with enough experience and talent behind them, the Blue Jays appear to be in line for a small improvement this fall. They have above-average amounts of firepower, depth, experience and upside as well as a relatively defined lineup structure.
If everything goes according to plan, the Blue Jays could near their 5th place performance from the 2019 national meet and be on the fringes of the podium conversation this fall.
That, however, is only if Leblond and McElhennon offer the same scoring value as they did at the end of last year and a couple others develop behind them as strong complementary scorers (ideally in the top-100 range at the national meet).
Those all feel like fairly reasonable expectations for this team in 2023 which is why we have the Blue Jays coming in at TSR #9 entering this fall.