TSR's 2023 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Men): #8 Virginia Cavaliers

NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.

Going into last fall, the expectations for the Virginia men weren't all that different from the women's side of their program. In the fall of 2021, the Cavaliers were...well, not good.

They finished in the bottom-half at the ACC XC Championships (10th) and lost to a Penn cross country team on their home course by 10 points. And while their opponents certainly deserved respect, the historical excellence of UVA suggested that they should have been so much better than that.

And then the 2022 cross country season happened.

This team was excellent last fall. Sure, their ceiling wasn't quite as high as their women's team, but the Cavalier men looked like an entirely different squad. Their collective scoring was significantly better, their depth was far stronger and they were all making consistent improvements.

Now, as we venture in the fall of 2023, this team looks primed to make yet another leap. With a heavy number of runners returning to this squad and the national meet being held on their home course, everything about this roster suggests that they'll be among the best in the NCAA come October and November.

After a pair of rust-busting meets at the Virginia Invitational and the Battle in Beantown, the Cavaliers would return to their home course where they hosted the Panorama Farms XC Invitational. It was the only major regular season meet on their schedule, and even then it was one of the smaller ones.

Despite most teams going to Nuttycombe, the Virginia men still had to face the likes of Wake Forest, Texas, Charlotte, Eastern Kentucky, Cal Poly, and Ole Miss -- and those were certainly not pushover teams.

Although the Wake Forest men were clearly the most dominant team in the field, the Cavaliers ran well and held their own.

Then-redshirt freshman Justin Wachtel led the way with a strong 6th place finish, acting as a low-stick of sorts. And with the rest of his teammates -- Rohann Asfaw, Gary Martin, Will Anthony, Wes Porter and Yasin Sado -- packing together to finish 15-16-17-18-19, respectively, the Cavaliers easily cruised to a 2nd place team finish.

While it wasn't perfect, that was the race that made us turn our heads and go, "Huh, UVA may actually be pretty good this year." Of course, the ACC XC Championships would prove to be an entirely different test.

Admittedly, the Cavaliers struggled at their conference meet which was held on their home course. Wachtel (13th), Sado (17th) and Porter (20th) gave this team a nice scoring streak, but with Virginia's final two scorers fading to 35th place and 40th place, the gaps in this lineup sent them back to 6th place overall.

Despite Virginia not taking down any top teams in their conference (with the possible exception of Duke), it was easy to be down on their postseason prospects. However, an aggressive team-centric, front-running strategy by the Cavaliers (plus some inexperience) was likely the culprit for their not-so-great showing.

Luckily, UVA would snag a surprising runner-up finish at the Southeast Regional XC Championships to earn a spot on the national stage. Of course, even if they had finished 3rd place overall, they still would have advanced to Stillwater, Oklahoma.

The NCAA XC Championships was admittedly not the Cavaliers' best showing. While it wasn't awful, it certainly wasn't a great performance, either.

Derek Johnson's 105th place finish ultimately led the team while Anthony, Wachtel, Porter and Sado went 129-136-143-148, respectively. In the end, the Virginia men severely lacked firepower and were forced to settle for a modest 22nd place team finish.

While it may not have been the result that they wanted, the Cavaliers' 2022 fall campaign had to be viewed as a major success given how much they struggled the year prior. And as we move into 2023, this squad should only be using last year as momentum for a far greater season to be had in the coming months.

We'll admit, when we made this ranking for the Virginia men, our impression is that they would be returning steeplechase standout, Derek Johnson. However, a glance at their (recently updated) roster suggests that he's not going to be returning to this team in 2023 -- and that's a tough blow.

Truthfully, Johnson didn't really play a major role for this team last fall until the postseason when the racing distance reached 10,000 meters. At the Southeast Regional XC Championships, he placed 10th before he was his team's lead scorer in 105th place on the national stage.

And after running times of 13:39 (3k) and 8:25 (steeple, out of season) earlier this year, we felt like Johnson could have been a pivotal scorer for this team in 2023. Maybe even a low-stick!

If Johnson truly is gone (and he seemingly is), then that's certainly going to hurt the Virginia men -- but it shouldn't devastate them. After all, this is a team that was six runners deep at the Panorama Farms XC Invitational and they did that without Derek Johnson cracking the top-30.

It's also true that long-time veteran Rohann Asfaw is no longer with the Cavaliers. However, his scoring contributions were limited throughout last fall. And while his experience could have been useful in 2023, this team has shown that they can still be an effective group without him.

With everyone else from last year's lineup set to return, the Virginia men should still be primed for a major year despite their two veteran departures. A handful of the Cavaliers' scorers from last fall were high-upside youngsters and there are others who made significant improvements on the track which, in theory, should translate to the grass.

And with this year's national meet being held on their home course, we have a feeling that the Cavaliers will have a postseason advantage come November.

It's hard to say with exact certainty who the top scorer on this team could be. However, in my eyes, I would think that Justin Wachtel is the top option for the Cavaliers this fall. He's a true long distance talent who flashed moments of low-stick potential in 2022.

For someone who was in his first season of collegiate cross country competition, Wachtel was quietly excellent. In fact, there were moments where he hung to the fringes of our top-50 individual cross country rankings.

Winning the Virginia Invitational, placing 3rd at Beantown, snagging a 6th place finish at the Panorama Farms XC Invitational, placing 13th at the ACC XC Championships and then 3rd at the Southeast Regional XC Championships were all strong and steady results.

When looking at each of those performances individually, it's hard to really be super impressed. But as a collective whole, that was a consistent resume of good races. And although his national meet effort (136th) could have been better, the signs were there for him being a potential low-stick in 2023.

Wachtel is entering his third year in the NCAA this fall -- experience shouldn't be a significant issue for him. And while his recent absence from racing isn't great, we also aren't too concerned about that. His recent racing hiatus could just be a training block that is preparing him for this fall.

However, if Wachtel doesn't turn out to be the top scorer on this team, then that honor could certainly go to Nathan Mountain. The rising distance talent was fantastic on the track this past year, making massive improvements in a handful of events while showcasing great range.

With recent personal bests of 3:39 (1500), 3:59 (mile), 13:48 (5k) and 8:32 (steeple), as well as a 4th place All-American honor in the latter event this past June, it seems safe to say that Mountain has reached another level of fitness.

Truthfully, Mountain doesn't have much of a cross country resume. He raced twice in the fall of 2021, but was seemingly redshirted last year. He's a major wildcard going into 2023, but it would hardly be surprising if he was an All-American later this year.

Alright...now for everyone else.

Truthfully, there are a handful of men who could step up into a low-stick role for Virginia this fall. But at the very least, the rest of this group offers highly valuable depth and great scoring support. On paper, we don't see too many scenarios where this team has a truly poor race.

Long-time veteran Yasin Sado didn't have his best outdoor track season this past spring. He was good, but he certainly wasn't great like he was during the 2022 spring campaign. Even so, when you look at the best parts of his resume, you can't help but wonder if he can be a borderline low-stick for this team when he's firing on all cylinders.

With personal bests of 3:40 (1500), 3:58 (mile), 7:58 (3k), 13:42 (5k) and 8:33 (steeple), Sado could emerge as a top-15, or maybe even a top-10, name within the ACC cross country ranks this fall. That would require a fairly big season from him, but after placing 17th at the ACC XC Championships last fall, that's not totally unrealistic.

But even if he doesn't make any improvements, then Sado's scoring stability from last year should be more than serviceable enough.

And how about Wes Porter? He continues to fly under the radar despite holding personal bests of 3:39 (1500), 3:56 (mile), 7:56 (3k) and 13:36 (5k). On paper, those times suggest that he should be a bit more content on the grass.

Of course, this is not to say that he's not already an effective scorer for this team. After all, this is someone who was a top-20 scorer for the UVA men at both the Panorama Farms XC Invitational and the ACC XC Championships.

Some people seem to forget about how good Porter was as a freshman during the pandemic-altered cross country season. Yes, he was racing in smaller meets, but there was clearly a ton of potential within him that I don't think has ever fully materialized in his recent seasons on the grass.

That, however, could be changing this fall after showing much stronger command of his fitness on the track this past year.

It also feels like people will look at Gary Martin and label him as a middle distance guy and only a middle distance guy.

But this is also a runner who was a cross country stud in high school. And while he didn't blow us away during his rookie debut, this Pennsylvania native did have a moment or two of promise, specifically when he placed 16th at the Panorama Farms XC Invitational.

Times of 1:47 (800), 3:39 (1500) and 3:56 (mile) from this past year suggest that Martin's raw fitness is becoming more refined. Of course, it's impossible to know how those marks will translate to the cross country course (if at all).

And then there's Will Anthony, a New Zealand native who was just a freshman last year. However, unlike Martin, this overseas talent is built for the longer distances. He was 17th at the Panorama Farms XC Invitational as well as 129th on the national stage.

The 19-year old has been a bit quieter on the track, but was a fairly effective scorer for this team in a handful of races last year. With natural growth and development, he could be a key name to watch.

As for everyone else, names such as Aidan Cox, Conor Murphy, James Donahue, Jack Eliason, Scott Sikorski, Jacob Hunter, Justin Diehl and Andrew Jones have all had brief moments of promise in a variety of different ways. Some guys were outstanding in the middle distance events while others felt like developmental talents in the aerobic-centric events.

Cox, an incoming freshman, is probably the top name to watch. While he is only a rookie, his high school resume is stacked. If any true freshman can emulate the potential of Washington freshman Tyrone Gorze this fall, then it's him.

With personal bests of 4:09 (mile), 8:14 (3k), 8:50 (two miles) and 14:18 (5k XC), Cox is someone who will likely be utilized immediately this fall as Virginia looks to make a statement at the national meet on their home course.

Yes, he struggled at the NXN Championships last year, but Cox was the 7th place finisher at the stacked 2021 Garmin RunningLane XC National Championships after winning the 2021 NXR Northeast Championships.

To be fully transparent, it's pretty rare for a team to be listed this highly in our rankings without any certainty as to where their low-stick scoring or firepower is going to come from. Truthfully, we're heavily relying on this team to grow and make a (fairly large) jump this fall.

Could Wachtel and Mountain be Virginia's focal low-sticks? Definitely. In fact, we think they'll fill those roles perfectly. Even so, we're banking on some favorable projections if that's going to happen.

But when you look at this roster as a whole, it's hard to see how they don't get significantly better in 2023 compared to last year. They already made a monumental leap from 2021 to 2022 and many of those returning men still have plenty of upside.

Plus, the depth of this team is amongst the best in the nation. And while you could say all of that about the Oregon men, the difference between the Ducks and the Cavaliers is that the latter is more experienced.

There are also numerous men who have run under 4:00 in the mile and 13:50 for 5000 meters. It would almost be shocking if someone on this team didn't have a breakout season.

However, maybe most importantly, we can't help but trust Vin Lananna.

Time and time again, this veteran coach has developed some of the best cross country teams in the NCAA. And with this year's national meet being hosted in Charlottesville, Virginia, we imagine that the iconic coach wants to capitalize on this opportunity.

And in our eyes, we think he will.