TSR's 2023 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Men): #6 North Carolina Tar Heels

NOTE: This article was scheduled to come out earlier this afternoon. We are aware of the current news and developments taking place at UNC today. The Chapel Hill community remains in our thoughts and prayers at this time.

NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.

It feels like I could start this article by saying, "This is it. This is the cross country season that the North Carolina men have been building towards."

But by saying that, it feels like I would be implying that the fall of 2023 is the Tar Heels' best chance to get on the podium. That, however, is (probably) not true.

Frankly, this team may actually be positioned for an even stronger campaign in 2024 compared to the coming months. And given that this squad is currently listed at TSR #6, that's a scary thought for any opponents that have to go through UNC for conference titles and podium spots.

Even so, the 2023 cross country is primed to be a thrilling one for the men of Chapel Hill. This team no longer features inexperienced youngsters, but rather star-caliber veterans. There is still plenty of upside on this roster, but there is also more legitimate firepower that we can point to.

And if everything comes together like we think it could for the North Carolina men, then you could be looking at a podium team in November.

The UNC men first began their 2022 cross country season at the Coaching Tree Invite. There, they faced the likes of Georgetown and (a very limited) Northern Arizona squad.

Despite the Lumberjacks sweeping the top-three spots, the Tar Heels took care of business relatively easily. Will Coogan led the way with a strong 5th place finish while Marshall Williamson (8th) and John Tatter (9th) offered solid scoring value as well. Michael Spragley (13th) and Crawford Hope (18th) closed out the team's top-five.

In the end, those results led to UNC securing the overall win by five points over Georgetown and seven points over an NAU squad that fielded almost none of their top men.

Of course, it should be noted that the Tar Heels were without their top talents as well. Parker Wolfe, Patrick Anderson and Ethan Strand did not toe the line for North Carolina in their season opener.

That was a respectable start to the Tar Heels' season, but far greater challenges lied ahead.

At the Paul Short Invite, the UNC men once again went to work, this time against top east coast programs. However, the Villanova men didn't make things easy for the Tar Heels through 80% of their lineup -- and UNC was fielding a fully-stacked group this time.

Parker Wolfe snagged a phenomenal individual victory and was flanked by teammate Patrick Anderson who earned a fantastic runner-up finish. Together, that was a lethal scoring combo.

However, the next three UNC men -- Tatter, Strand and Williamson -- didn't cross the finish line until 18th, 21st and 25th place, respectively. And with Villanova packing four of their men into the top-10, it looked like the Wildcats were going to run away with gold.

Luckily for North Carolina, their BIG East opponents were without Haftu Strintzos, giving the Tar Heels a comfortable victory in the end. But in reality, UNC would have lost that race had Villanova been at full strength. Yes, they had good firepower, but the rest of their lineup needed to close down on their scoring gaps.

At the Nuttycombe Invitational, those aforementioned lineup gaps became more and more of an issue for the Tar Heels.

Wolfe (6th) was beyond fantastic while Tatter (64th) and Williamson (71st) put together respectable results of their own. However, with Strand falling back to 117th place and Anderson having an "off" day in 129th place, the North Carolina men had to settle for an underwhelming 14th place finish.

Sure, that wasn't a bad result, but a lack of firepower behind Wolfe and ongoing scoring gaps were becoming increasingly more difficult problems for UNC to deal with in larger fields.

The ACC XC Championships didn't produce many surprises. North Carolina had a decent race, but it was still not reflective of their full potential.

Wolfe (2nd) continued to be elite, Anderson (15th) had a slight rebound race, Tatter (16th) continued to be fairly reliable, Hope (25th) held his own and Strand (29th) was a decent enough option at the team's fifth scoring role.

In the end, UNC finished 3rd overall.

They were just one point the runner-up finishers, Syracuse.

After easily navigating the Southeast Regional XC Championships, it was admittedly hard to get too excited about the Tar Heels. Yes, Wolfe was having an incredible year, but there wasn't enough consistent firepower behind him and the backend of their lineup lacked stability for a team that had top-10 aspirations.

But just like the fall of 2021, this team peaked for the national meet.

In their season finale, Wolfe locked down a clutch 9th place finish, yet again emerging as the face of North Carolina's distance program. Behind him was Strand in 62nd place. It wasn't a low-stick result, but it was undeniably the best race of Strand's collegiate career at that point.

With Tatter (72nd) continuing to offer tremendous scoring consistency and Will Coogan (106th) having what may have been his best race of the season, UNC was looking surprisingly great through four runners. And while Anderson (113th) could've been better, he still closed out the Tar Heels' scoring fairly quickly.

In the end, those results left North Carolina with a 10th place finish and a performance that salvaged a season that hadn't left us too excited about this team up and to that point.

When it comes to the 2023 version of UNC's cross country team, there is only some bad news and a whole lot of good news.

The bad news is that John Tatter is no longer with this program. That is a crushing loss despite him not being a true low-stick (or even a lead scorer) for this team last fall. For a squad that battled plenty of lineup inconsistency in 2022, Tatter was the only reliable name on North Carolina's roster last fall other than Parker Wolfe.

The Tar Heels are also going to be without Marshall Williamson this fall. The 8:45 steeplechaser struggled slightly in the postseason, but was a consistent scorer for this squad during the regular season. He was another underrated name in terms of offering value to North Carolina's 2022 lineup.

UNC is also losing their seventh man from the national meet, Ben Fleming.

For a group that truthfully exceeded expectations on the national stage, losing both Tatter and Williamson is hard to reconcile. Most teams would struggle to develop enough depth to fill those gaps. And given that the Tar Heels already had significant scoring challenges last fall, some may find it hard to see how UNC is ranked this highly.

Of course, with everyone else set to return, a handful of men making monster improvements on the track and two highly important graduate transfers entering the program, this North Carolina squad should be a revamped group in 2023.

And that lack of firepower after Wolfe? Well, that should be remedied as well.

There truthfully isn't much of a reason to talk about Parker Wolfe. He took a massive step up in his fitness last year and turned into a truly elite scorer. He's been incredibly reliable through his first two years at North Carolina and we don't expect that to stop in 2023.

He could win the national title this fall and that largely wouldn't change anything about the scoring effectiveness of UNC's lineup. For that reason, we're going to move on.

Despite the certainty that we have for Wolfe, the conversation regarding scoring for this team gets a bit more interesting at the second and third spots of this lineup. That, of course, is because Ethan Strand was flat-out incredible on the track and Alex Phillip, potentially the greatest D3 distance runner ever, is joining UNC this fall.

Strand's 62nd place finish at last year's national meet was really nice to see. However, that was also a clear outlier in terms of what he was doing throughout last fall. Leading up to the NCAA XC Championships, he hadn't proven to be a top-100 runner on the grass.

But then the sophomore toed the line for the indoor oval...and my goodness was he electric.

The rising UNC star dropped outstanding times during the winter, posting new personal bests of 3:55 (mile) and 7:46 (3k). Strand secured numerous wins that season and even took down Wolfe for the ACC title over 3000 meters.

On the outdoor oval, Strand didn't get serious about his racing until the postseason. And although his national meet performance wasn't the best, this was still someone who ran times of 3:38 (1500) and 13:46 (5k) this past spring.

Right now, we have Strand listed in the "Just Missed" portion of our preseason individual cross country rankings. That feels like a fair compromise between his incredible year on the oval and his somewhat unexciting results on the grass.

Strand needs to be better than he was last fall, but that doesn't seem like it will be an issue. However, trying to figure out how much better he'll actually be is the biggest question mark for us. He could replicate his national meet result on a more consistent basis and be an effective scorer, but UNC probably needs him to be closer to the All-American range if they are going to justify this ranking.

And then there's Alex Phillip, the former John Carroll runner who made history (multiple times) at the Division Three level.

On the oval, the newest Tar Heel star set D3 records for the indoor 3k, the indoor 5k, the outdoor 5k and the 10k. He earned a total of 13 individual All-American honors and won a total of seven D3 national titles, including two on the grass.

With personal bests of 7:53 (3k), 13:44 (5k) and 28:31 (10k), Phillip has entered the 2023 cross country season as our TSR #46 runner in our preseason individual cross country rankings. It's admittedly hard to know how he'll translate his fitness to the Division One level, but he should be able to give this team a second (or third) low-stick.

After all, it's not like Phillip is unfamiliar with racing top D1 competition. And don't forget, this is a guy who finished 7th at Paul Short last year -- he would have been UNC's third scorer that day and he has almost certainly gotten better since then.

Through three runners, UNC clearly has better scoring potency that they did in 2022. Wolfe looks like he could have two All-American teammates behind him and that should naturally expand the Tar Heels' margin of error for the 2023 cross country season.

The next group of scorers is where this team will ultimately thrive or struggle. There is clearly tons of raw talent amongst this next contingent of lineup contributors, but at least one of them will need to deliver on their potential by October and November to justify this ranking.

Jake Gebhardt, much like Alex Phillip, is yet another accomplished graduate transfer. The former Indiana runner is opting to use his final year of eligibility in Chapel Hill.

Truthfully, Gebhardt's cross country resume is a bit all over the place. He placed 69th at Nuttycombe last fall and was 16th at the BIG 10 XC Championships. But otherwise, his 2022 fall campaign was fairly underwhelming.

Yes, the former Hoosier did place 10th at the 2021 BIG 10 Winter XC Championships and 124th at the 2021 NCAA Winter XC Championships. Those two races, however, were probably the best cross country performances of his career depending on what you think about his latest Nuttycombe effort.

However, Gebhardt could be due for a much stronger cross country season in 2023. The incoming Tar Heel talent ran a huge 13:37 (5k) PR at the Raleigh Relays back in March and also ran a solid steeplechase PR of 8:51.

Admittedly, Gebhardt needs to improve his consistency. He needs to be a reliable name for UNC if he's going to help this team contend for a podium spot in Charlottesville, Virginia. It's clear that he's more than talented enough to do that, but we need to see him prove it, first.

Of course, if that happens, then Gebhardt will be the reason why UNC reaches the top-four on the national stage. His upside is what makes the Tar Heels such an exciting group in 2023.

We then come to Patrick Anderson, a guy who placed 3rd at the 2019 Foot Locker XC National Championships back in high school.

This Pennsylvania native is a true long distance talent, owning personal bests of 7:54 (3k), 13:37 (5k) and 28:54 (10k), all from the spring of 2022. He also finished runner-up at Paul Short last fall and was 15th at the ACC XC Championships.

When he's firing on all cylinders, Anderson is potentially one of the 50-best men in the NCAA on the cross country course. We sincerely believe that. However, his lack of consistency has also been a significant challenge. It also doesn't help that he's been recovering from a severe car accident that, "nearly took [his] life" earlier this year.

Even so, you could argue that Anderson is one of the more naturally talented distance runners on this roster. He has yet to fully put together a full cross country season indicative of his true talent, but he can certainly reach that point.

Will Coogan also deserves a mention of his own in this article. He continues to be a very underrated contributor for the North Carolina men. Sure, he wasn't amazing over the 8k distance last fall, but when he stepped up to 10k, Coogan finished 14th at the Southeast Regional XC Championships and 106th at the national meet.

However, maybe more importantly, Coogan went on to run 7:54 (3k) and 13:44 (5k) on the indoor oval. He raced at only one meet last spring, but it may be fair to say that this rising veteran should be better this fall than he was last year.

And if that's the case, then any concerns about backend depth that we had with North Carolina may be far less of an issue in 2023.

Other names to monitor this fall include Colton Sands, Sully Shelton, Crawford Hope, Noah Breker and pretty much any rising sophomore. Breker is the only rising freshman of that listed group after a phenomenal high school career. He could be a perfect fit for this team in 2023 if he isn't redshirted.

Truthfully, the main reason why we feel better about this team's depth is largely because of the men who we just mentioned above. The last few recruiting classes for UNC have been among the absolute best in the nation. It would almost be surprising if one of those guys didn't step into a varsity role in some capacity this fall.

We don't know who that's going to be, but the raw talent and upside is far too exciting to ignore, especially for a fall campaign that could end up being historic for the Tar Heels.

We're now reaching the point in UNC's roster lifecycle where they are no longer a "developmental project" or a "team on the rise". Nowadays, they're a true distance running powerhouse that can legitimately compete for podium spots.

Sure, we can acknowledge that the Tar Heels still need a handful of things to break their way this season if they are going to contend for a top-four spot on the national stage. A lot of the value that these men hold is based on what they could do rather than what they have done.

But given their ability to peak in the postseason over the last few years and their continued upwards trajectory, we feel like we have every right to rank this team at TSR #6. And who knows? Maybe this team is primed for something more than that in the coming months...